SpaceX Surges To $175 On Hyperliquid Ahead Of Friday IPO

[00:00:02]Good morning everyone. Welcome to the modern market. It's Friday the 12th of June. Uh this is a show where we discuss everything to do with the markets and it's exciting today. Exciting day in the markets today. We've got the SpaceX IPO incoming. We got all of the details. We had done all the preparation. Been speaking about the last two days, but today is the day. But we've got a bunch of other headlines, too. We'll get into all of it that we think is important.

[00:00:33]I've got Legendary in the Co-host seat with me today. And we're going to get into it. We're ready. Just a reminder, though, before we do, nothing that we say here is financial advice. The market is very, very risky. We don't know anything for sure. So, please proceed with caution and exercise your own judgment. Uh here are your headlines for Friday the 12th of June. The headlines are SpaceX rises almost 10% to around $175 on hyperlquid pre-markets. That is pretty important and we'll explain why in today's show, not least, because I was long from 157 and called for 175 just yesterday or the day before. That's not bad. Uh, President Trump has canled strikes on Iran. I think Elon maybe gave him a little call to say don't ruin this damn IPO um Mr. President. So that look is looking good. However, May PPI inflation surges 6.4%. With CPI at 4.9 that is bad news. We do not like to see that and actually been thinking about it. Maybe this is why gold and some of these other harder assets are selling off. We'll talk about that on the show as well. In other headlines, we have the news that European Central Bank hikes interest rates by uh 0.25%.

[00:01:51]Uh maybe foreshadowing some further hiking cycle uh behavior. Coinbase launches Coinbase for agents. Um Canton Network developer digital asset raises $355 million led by A16Z crypto. I don't even know what you're supposed to do with that amount of money. Um, sounds unreasonable if I'm giving my honest opinion. Nakamoto BTC treasury company sells 600 Bitcoin to repay 45 million of debt. How does a Bitcoin treasury company get into debt? I thought they're supposed to take the money and buy Bitcoin. I'm not really sure what's going on there. Um, pretty sure those are the guys people want to incarcerate in some way because of how badly poorly run that they have uh run that treasury company into the ground. Zack XPTt shares $120 million uh USDT has been frozen on Tron. We've been chatting about stuff getting frozen recently.

[00:02:45]It's not great. Not great. Got to be uh secure in what protocols you're you're interacting with. Make sure your money stays your money. Uh getting into the price action today to get you up to speed with what is going on. We've got Bitcoin just up.9 to 63.7. ETH is up 7 to 1674.

[00:03:05]Hype is up 4% to $59.

[00:03:08]Um, in terms of other cryptos, Soul is down is up, sorry, 1.92% to 66. In terms of some assets here, you got silver up almost 5% to 66. You have gold up uh around 3% to 4,200.

[00:03:27]Um, a lot of well, oil is very, very red. um maybe in line with what we just spoke about, President Trump cancelling, allegedly cancelling uh attacks. Who knows if those attacks were real or not.

[00:03:41]Either way, WTI is down 5% to 83, which is one of the lowest numbers I've seen in a while. Brent is down 5% to 86, which is also one of the lowest numbers I've seen in a while for that. Um aside from that, all the stocks and the rest of the market is green. Uh Micron's up 7% to 986. Sandisk up 9% to 1895. SK Hunix up 3% to 1440. Zcash up a couple of percent to 436. Intel up almost 5% to 117. Marvel up almost 6% to 275. Nvidia up almost 2% to 206. Near's up 4% to 2.1. Monero is up almost 7% to 376.

[00:04:20]Tesla's up almost 4% to back to 400. Um, World Coin's been very green across the board. That's one of the only coins that's in the red today. It has been doing quite well, but it is red today just down a percent and a half. Oracles up.3 XP. Oh, wow. XPL, what am I looking at here? XPL up 40%.

[00:04:40]Uh, back to 9 cents. I believe that is to do with their latest launch, which for some reason I've missed off the news today. uh they've launched tiers for their cards and one of the conditions for reaching the top tier of their uh card is holding a certain amount of XPL market clearly agrees that it's worth holding some or some people have agreed there and have decided to bid XPL back to 9 cents. Um so that is that that is what's going on in the market. And of course just to conclude with the main uh ticker of the day. Uh SPCX SpaceX up 8% on the day to around 175 right now.

[00:05:28]Actually went as high as 185 on a very a big surge up kind of overnight. That has cooled off but still up uh just over 7% to 175 as we speak. exciting stuff. Um, right, that's the main headlines. That's the price action ledge. What's catching your attention here before we get into the main stuff today?

[00:05:54]Uh, a couple of things I want to speak to. So, just [clears throat] and bring it up in screen in a second. I'm just looking at Plasma because, you know, I'm always interested in another credit card and what they offer, what you get.

[00:06:08]So, they have been focusing more on the AI side of things, which I think is not a is a good idea. Um, they offer you 10% AI cash back. So, on all of your AI spend, probably if you buy API credits, they give you in the platinum tier both a cloud pro and a chat GP plus subscription. Um, and they also give you 10% in flight cash back up to $600 a year.

[00:06:37]So there's a base. Ah, there we go. Base cash back 7.5K. That's 4% cash back on other on all purchases. You get cloudp pro the chat GPD plus subscription. You get 1.4k in AI credit. Not sure what that means.

[00:06:54]That is probably that is the 10% cash back line. Yes, it has to be because a credit is also disclosed that. So 10% cash back on um a credit as well. It's 10k in value and you need to look 100,000 plasma for 12 months and plasma is now trading at exactly the fair value is plasma trading at roughly 10 cents we said right >> 9 cents >> yeah so basically you lock 9K of plasma to get 10k of value and before that when it was trading at 6K at 6 cents this is where the low point was before this pump is it XPL there we go so yeah here was trading at 6 cents. So you basically would pay 6k in plasma tokens and lock in 10k in value if you max out on flights. And so if you pay more than six grand a year in flights and get uh 4% cash back on up to on up to 7.5k, you would have made 4 grand and now also benefit from the token going up. Uh but you have to lock for 12 months. So it was a good deal here. Now it is basically not deal. It's a fair value. Yeah, >> it's not a bad thing.

[00:08:08]>> If you think that it's well, if you Yeah, if you don't own plasma already, if you don't own XPL already, you might as well not basically, right?

[00:08:19]Because you'll pay the money in order to get the money back, right? Unless there's then additional benefits that might occur by being a staker, which you can't account for right now.

[00:08:32]>> Yes. And as long as it plasma doesn't go to zero, you will have made a couple grand. Like even if it goes down to three cents or what you max on the benefits you sell after year, you're up basically 3k. So not a not a bad deal.

[00:08:43]Not a bad deal. If it goes down, >> to be fair, you you get elevated cash back. So depending on just maybe you're a general big spender.

[00:08:50]>> Yeah, that's cap to 7.5k. So that's the the 4% cash back. That's part of the maximum 10k benefits. And if that's capped to 7 um.5K at 4% that means you need to spend >> um 187k a year. So if you spend almost 200k on your credit card you would get the max amount back. So if that is your spending profile it is still a fair deal that you could go after. Um that is that is on the plasma side of things. The other side of uh that I wanted to mention is there we go. Samsung is also having a good day. Samsung is up 7%. But so is the entire Cosby. We talked about the Cosby last week. Uh once it had hit the circuit breaker, it was down 8% on the day it did recover um the day after and it is still continuing um on its trajectory upwards as the Cosby P is up another uh 4% 4 and a.5% today and is back above um 8.1K points. still off alltime high. Alltime high was around 8,800. So, it's still down a bit from that point, but it has been recovering nicely. Unsurprisingly, saw when the entire S&P is moving upwards. It had moved upwards yesterday and the entire semiconductor sector also had a beautiful day. Maybe let's quickly bring up that map. Uh you mentioned some of uh these these tickers already, but just to show that it is a pretty good day in the markets. And the one interesting thing that I wanted to look at is also Tesla um because I'm was just curious to see what it's going to do before the SpaceX IPO and it's up. It's up four and a half%.

[00:10:34]Yeah. Interesting, right? I think a lot of people thought, all right, this is like a dev launching their second token.

[00:10:42]Maybe um Tesla suffers as a consequence. But I think the reason why that is getting mitigated is because there's enough people out there who think well what if uh this Tesla gets wrapped into SpaceX eventually. In fact, you might have to look this up ledge on poly market. I believe that there's a poly market for Tesla getting wrapped into SpaceX. I'd be very intrigued. I've got a feeling it might be higher. It's like 40 to 60% if I remember correctly. I saw someone share it on Twitter. Um, >> we are low volume uh until June 30th.

[00:11:23]It's 4%. Go away. Until December 31st.

[00:11:27]It is a 38% chance, but that's only of $15,000 in volume. And the September market is irrelevant because it only has $12 in volume.

[00:11:37]>> Okay. Um, interesting interesting stuff.

[00:11:41]I see.

[00:11:44]I think I mean I think it's going to happen but yeah it's it's hard to put a date on it. I I don't I I have no intuition as to what the date would be.

[00:11:54]I actually do think it would be within the first year though of IPO because you're going to have all this sell pressure when the unlocks start happening and it will be used as a tool to stop people selling at well maybe not the people who are locked up already but as a way to make people buy when to absorb some of the sell pressure. So I think it will be used as a tool within the first year of the IPO but I don't know when in that time like uh I think that's too hard to say at the moment. Um one reflection on my side ledge that I was just kind of thinking before we get into the main stuff today.

[00:12:36]I was thinking if if you I I was thinking on our like personal trading journeys one uh in reflection one a is we don't bo [laughter] we don't bother texting each other like trades anymore. It's just like a random reflection. I think it's because it's a reflection of where we've got to where it's like we don't feel the need anymore to be like, "Oh, look, I got this thing.

[00:13:04]Like, it looks good. Like, why don't you get it?" I think we just kind of can't be bothered for that. We'll just do it whenever we talk to each other. We'll tell each other when we talk to each other rather than be like, "Oh, I got this thing. It looks cool." Um, so I I thought that which has subsequently meant we're not always in the same things like we used to be. I think we used to be much more like right let's you know we're going to do this let's do it whereas now even for a robot strategy I'm pretty sure I was sharing half the thesis with you and then you traded it and I I just couldn't be bothered uh because I had private exposure so it's like we're not always in the same thing but one reflection I had is like if you tag teamed mine and your trades the ones that I was in and then the ones that you're in just like now I'm in SpaceX but you're not. You did rob strategy but I wasn't. You hit VBV really early, I didn't. Um, but then I hit like near really early and you didn't.

[00:14:00]And then I was in hype again. I think I mean we've both been in hype. Maybe that's the one thing we had commonality.

[00:14:05]If you were to aggregate I mean this is what the whole show's about really. I mean it's like you're really good at what you do. I'm good at what I do. if you were to actually do the thing. I mean, maybe we should do more of what we each other do and get that fire back in some ways to do that because we're both individually performing well. Um, if you if you were actually to do that, you'd be doing damn well this year. Like, I don't think you would have I mean I Oh, I I was in Zcash and then you opted out of that one as well. So something's going on at the moment where we just keep opting out of the other things that we're doing, but we more or less hitting maybe not all the way from the start, but we're hitting the main things quite routinely.

[00:14:46]Um, do you have any thoughts on that just to kick us off? Then I had another thought.

[00:14:50]>> Yeah, our our our ven diagram of common trades has basically no overlap or even is taking the different direction, right? Like I I I had my Zcash position, but I bought the top and sold it at like 7%.

[00:15:04]>> You had it and then I entered with much.

[00:15:08]>> Yeah.

[00:15:09]>> Why is that the case?

[00:15:11]>> I think honestly I was thinking about it. I think it's because we've basically just can't be bothered anymore.

[00:15:17][snorts and laughter] >> Too complacent.

[00:15:19]>> Yeah. Like as in as in we obviously can be bothered because we still have huge amounts of capital working and and doing this stuff. So, but we don't have the level of urg. So, it's not that we can't be bothered, but we don't have the level of urgency that is required to be like, you know, if it's at 700 p.m. my time and you message me a few hours before and you're like, and in fact, we don't even send each other these messages anymore because I think we're always just like, I'll tell him tomorrow. I'll tell him tomorrow. Like, we we'll just chat on the next day. And then sometimes, you know, I I shared the GA idea with you and then you actually did go and do that. Then it ended up being terrible uh because the gata thing collapsed. Um which which obviously happens sometimes as you take the amount of risk that we do across the board. But um yeah, I think we don't have necessarily the level of urgency even if we do have the level of attention to detail and the appetite to keep making more. I just think we don't have the level of urgency as as before, if you see what I mean.

[00:16:23]>> And we're probably way faster in like calling a bet early in terms of calling off a bet like the gotcha thing.

[00:16:35]I bought I forward into like down 20%. I was like, "Yeah, I'm going to sell here before it goes to zero."

[00:16:42]>> Way faster. I wouldn't have done that in the past. But one one exception to that is u my bot strategy trade was a good trade >> that I only did on one day.

[00:16:54]>> Uh yeah that I only did because you brought my attention in [laughter] >> but I was trying to figure that out because this is what's confusing me is like I did all the work for robo strategy and then I told you and then you did it and I just couldn't be bothered. So like I'm yeah I was trying to unpick like what's going on here?

[00:17:12]Why? [clears throat] Why is this happen?

[00:17:13]Like we are actually in a lot of different things sometimes even though we're sharing ideas all the time. Um so yeah I'm not I'm not entirely sure what the answer is but I think at least [snorts] if you >> Lily or any of my other stock pickics did you >> No, but even that I wanted to um I I don't know may maybe to be fair it's like increased confidence in your own thing. Maybe before we were more like, you know, I wanna group together and I like the idea of someone else and therefore I'm gonna follow what they do.

[00:17:48]Whereas now, even if something sounds good, maybe I'm more like, okay, but I have this thing that I'm thinking about SpaceX, for example, and therefore the one trade I want to focus on this week is SpaceX. And fair enough, the the Eli Liy thing sounds good, but SpaceX is coming next week and I'm just going to focus my attention there. Maybe I have reduced my number of positions a little bit. I think that's something that's happened. Do you think it's maybe a numbers thing? May maybe it's that like maybe we don't want to have as many positions as before. And so even if I say something cool, >> you're like, "Well, it sounds cool, but I've got like six things on >> and I don't want the >> trade size got bigger the individual trade size, right? If you just throw around a couple grand and smaller trades, >> it's different than if you throw around bigger numbers and you want to focus on them.

[00:18:39]>> So there there's two ways to go forward.

[00:18:41]I think the one way is you do you, I do my trades. We share notes on the show and talk and do what we have been doing.

[00:18:49]Second route is uh we set up a family office, bundle capital, and then start allocating together again. That's the that's the two routes forward.

[00:18:59]>> Or we do the thing that I'm pretty sure we did once where I sent you a ton of money when [laughter] I had to go somewhere and then you just trade for me for like seven days or something and see what happens.

[00:19:11]>> You were surprised when we did that.

[00:19:13]>> I wasn't surprised. I was happy. It was just like, "Yeah, take the money."

[00:19:16]>> You were surprised. You were surprised by the amount because that was during virtual season. I remember the first thing that I bought 10x for you in a day and you were like, >> "Oh yeah, thanks for that." [laughter] >> Edge casually made me like I can't even remember the number. It was absurd amount of money. I can't even say out loud and I just like turned up in another country because I had to catch a flight and I was like, "Oh, cool.

[00:19:38]Thanks, man."

[00:19:39]>> Yeah. Oh, I I remember exactly how much it was. Uh Diablo and Cognito in the YouTube comments is saying, "Piche, you're gonna have to start messaging Legendary's AI trading bot instead."

[00:19:47]>> Maybe >> maybe that's why we don't talk. Maybe Legend is just chatting to his AI too much these days. And uh I can only get through to his bot.

[00:19:55]>> Uh what's XPL? We love you guys for your hard work. Appreciate it. Appreciate it, guys. Uh one other thought. Frog leader said, "Be choosing violence today. Love it." Do you know what I realized the other day? I just realized realized we're we've done so well. I'm just like it's a little bit of a victory lap. I don't know why, you know, you put on one trade and you're up and you just start to victory lap in some way.

[00:20:20]>> Yeah. The trade's not even over. But I just thought like we've done so well.

[00:20:23]Why not choose violence more? You know, >> why not? Like what what like what what is there even not to choose violence about?

[00:20:31]>> You did the show and you did it today reading the news as well.

[00:20:36]>> Huh?

[00:20:36]>> You did it yesterday on the show as well. choosing violence and due to comments.

[00:20:41]>> Something about sitting down, like when I stand up, I feel more professional.

[00:20:45]When I sit down, I just let loose. I'm I've sat down on the show the last two days. I think it's something to do with this. Um, okay. So, yeah, we just let it rip these days. That's the new That's the new uh way. We're going to have some violence at least one or two times per show, if not throughout. Frankly, I don't see the point doing the show otherwise. Um, okay. Where are we today?

[00:21:11]Let's get into the first headline. It's obviously to do with SpaceX and we're going to be talking a bunch of stuff and we dropped a ton of helpful content in our Telegram group yesterday because we had a bunch of stuff on the show. We shared it on the show. If you needed the links, then yes, you need to be in the Telegram. if you literally can't use Google and you want to just be able to press the button. Uh we shared it not only a good video in the telegram but also Ledge ran it through uh his agents and produced a report. So I think Ledge might even be touching on that a little bit now. So Ledge tell us what we need to know about SpaceX, what it's happening, how it's moving. Got a bunch of data points here and then let's discuss.

[00:21:51]>> A lot of things are happening with what is the biggest IPO which is um to happen later today. Just to recap some of the key figures, um, let me share my screen.

[00:22:02]There we go. A $1.77 trillion uh, IPO makes it the largest IPO of all time uh, by valuation. It is closely uh, followed by Saudi Aramco, which IPOed at 1.7 uh, trillion. So just 70 billion shy of SpaceX's IPO. hundred uh billion dollars being the total amount of SpaceX share orders submitted by retail investors that has been reported by uh Bloomberg. A lot has been done by many.

[00:22:37]>> What number did you say ledge by the way?

[00:22:38]>> 100 bill >> 100. Yeah. So that's one key thing I think that number has been revised up.

[00:22:43]Yesterday people were talking about 70 total was meant to be 75 being raised.

[00:22:47]They were saying 70 is coming from retail 70 of demand. Then they said later that there was a hundred of demand from retail. So I think that was important.

[00:22:55]>> Yeah. Also with all of these numbers, some of them are not conclusive across the major uh media outlets, especially when it comes to the retail allocation.

[00:23:06]Um there's still different numbers being reported 75 billion uh the proceeds that SpaceX will make from the IPO. that is significantly bigger than what uh Saudi Aramco did despite being at a similar valuation when they IPOed Salia quote only did 25.6 bill um size of SpaceX IPO order from Black Rockck uh that it was according to the Wall Street Journal being um 5 billion still a bit less than um the yeah 5 billion is just the the the SpaceX IP orders from BlackRock. So that is that is some of the numbers that is some of the data points on that sort of things. Um, also with the amount of shares that Elon is holding, it's going to make him the first paper uh trillionaire. Then on Hyperlquid, massive spike in volume, 900 plus million in volume. Uh, more than 1.5 million individual trades. Also, if you look at the 24-hour volume, this is up to 236 mil. Uh, open interest at 260 mil. Also very significant. Uh here the Black Rock news we had covered that was Susb yesterday when the retail investor number still was at 70 bill. So that went up by another 30 bill overnight.

[00:24:23]Single family office as an interesting side note here which put in a request for uh $1 billion.

[00:24:31]Then again there's been a bit of conflicting news in terms of the um allocation um to to retail. I think that has been fluctuating anywhere between 20 and um 30% of the IPO. Another interesting post and that is maybe a couple of takes going the direction is it really worth to to purchase an IPO and how have other uh IPOs performed in terms of the maximum draw down which they have seen in the first year of trading. Uh Facebook down 54, Snapchat 56, Uber 68, Pinterest 70, Lyft 79, Rivian 88, and Robin Hood down 90%. So the median first year draw down across this entire list was uh 54% suggesting that the IPO is um not the best day to buy a share if you want to have it. also echoing um that advice that Warren Buffett gave, saying that the idea that a newly issued security brought to market at a time of the seller's choosing surrounded by massive hype is the single best bargain among thousands of global businesses is absolute nonsense.

[00:25:44]Uh nonetheless, with all of that hype that definitely is surrounding this IPO, it is a patone on the pre-market.

[00:25:51]Yesterday, it did go as high as um $183.

[00:25:54]again IPO price being at $135 is now still trading at $178 being up almost 9% on the day and being up a very very fair amount from your entry point in the trade uh which we had talked about on I think Wednesday three two three days ago on Wednesday uh and you got in in the mid 150s I think >> yeah this went very very nicely uh for me we opened up the show that day.

[00:26:26]SpaceX was down another 6% after being relentlessly down over and over again from the highs of around 200 and it just started looking very attractive. All of a few more of the details started to get released. I've been clear on the the data points that I found most compelling. One is I I understand there's a lot of retail and people get scared if there's a lot of retail. The number of retail actually got revised down. on ledge. I don't know if you saw this. There's been further communication that whilst initially they said that retail would be in for 30% of the um IPO allocation. It turned out in the end or at least this is what the communication said there's now going to be 20%. So that's a very big markdown in retail participation. Still more than normal but it's a big markdown. I think we don't know that yet fully because there's another Yahoo Finance article which just came out like 40 50 minutes ago that says um we still don't know how much will end up um with retail investors and it's going to be in the 20 to 30% band but it it it's not possible to tell.

[00:27:32]>> Okay, that's that's a good caveat to be honest. I actually don't mind like whether it's 20 or 30 it doesn't change my material thinking anyway. So I kind of priced it I I was still took the position thinking that it might be 30 and the thesis still plays out in my opinion. So that all right fine there's 30% retail participation but the other thing that was being reported assuming all of this stuff is true of course which you never know uh is that honest the $75 billion sale there was $70 billion of commitments from retail. So, fair enough. If retail's at 30% of 70, well, they're only going to get 30% of 75 billion. Say there's 20 something billion that will go to retail, like 25ish.

[00:28:18]Um, but there's another almost three times that of demand. And then actually what happened is that in the latest article yesterday said there's actually four times more demand uh saying that there's 100 billion of retail interest um being indicated at the IPO price of 135. So it kind of makes me think you take that level of demand, you take Elon and the business and you know this being positioned as you know this big monopoly for space business in the future and very very crucially you do the maths of the float and we had numbers yesterday between 3 and 4% of the float. Again I don't I think that's so low that it doesn't matter whether it's 3 or 4%.

[00:29:06]You take all of those things into a factor. Once you got to 155, that's almost, you know, that's 10 to 15% that's just that's no more than 10 to 15% higher than the IPO price. And I just don't think that number is just way too close when you take all of those things together. Um, and so now I actually called I think I said you see 175 185ish. I want to check, but I'm pretty sure those were the exact numbers I said.

[00:29:38]And from here now it's now I think you're kind of more appropriately priced.

[00:29:45]But I still think in the end because the interesting dynamic here is that we've got to the price that people on hyperlquid have decided that people who are not on hyperlquid would be willing to pay. But the difference is if you took hyperlquid away and this wasn't possible, maybe it would have started lower and those people get to bid straight away and get it to this price. Now, it's going to go here even faster because I think, you know, I if if this plays out as we expect, which is that the the price is going to go to this price uh pretty quickly and I think this was where it's going to go anyway because uh of those factors we just described. Um I think this becomes like the new starting point in a way. So now, do you think up or down from 175, do you still have like how how much of that 4x overs subscribed retail still want to buy two more, three more, five more SpaceX shares, spend an extra th,000 on SpaceX at 175 versus 135. To be honest, I think the answer is still lots of people because they had $1,000 allocated to SpaceX or they they had x amount of dollars that they had they wanted to allocate to SpaceX. They didn't get given the allocation that they wanted in full. They've got a few thousand still in their account and I think they want to press bid because frankly these days what is the difference between 170 and 135? Like it's it's not uh big. This is a trillion dollar IPO. these numbers getting pulled out of the sky all the time now. Is someone going to think that 135 and 170 is a huge difference? I just don't think it matters that much anymore uh these gaps. Now, of course, I'm not saying this means that this is a great value company right here, right now. I'm purely talking the psychology and mathematics of supply demand on the day of the most hyped IPO in basically our what in the last decade at least if not longer like in our lifetime the most expensive thing the most expansive thing the most explorative thing um it's incredibly it's incredibly huge. So, do I think people are going to get over excited?

[00:32:13]Yes. Should that over excitement be warranted? No. But I think they're going to do it. And we have a lot of experience with this from crypto with trading TGS uh anticipated TGS which go up and then you've got to figure out when it's time to pull the trigger and uh we're going to have to see some selling to cool off. Um, I just if you price something at $135 and that's one share and people want some shares, they say they wanted four shares and they only got given one in the IPO.

[00:32:46]Like, well, they need three more. Um, and they're going to want to get it straight away because they don't want to wait six months for it to trade back at the IPO price. Um, that is my thinking.

[00:32:57]What do you think that is? Obviously incredibly bullish and I'm obviously talking my book. I mean, from the absolute bottom there on that dip that you're showing on screen. So, I have some leeway to play with. I can put a stop loss in here at 160. In a worst case scenario, goes down, I'll still be up and I just walk away and whatever.

[00:33:17]But my thinking is people can um people can push this. What do you think?

[00:33:23]>> People can probably push this. Yeah. And it's um it's also a very good case for crypto because if you want to get that it is over subscribed for retail you might end up with one share you might end up with nothing and then you might have thought hm I could buy the 2x leveraged long ETF which we had talked about on the show about the show you cannot do that um there was just an article updated two hours ago on writer saying that the SEC is delaying the leveraged SpaceX ETFs to avoid complicating the IPO debut.

[00:33:54]So you will have to wait until Monday.

[00:33:57]So if you want to play from day one, day zero before day one and you want to do that even with leverage and you want to get a good allocation. The only reasonable way to do that is uh to speculate on on the hip three markets to do that on hyperlquid. And yes, the thing is you could have never gotten it at IPO price here. could have never gotten it at $135, but um you could have at least got it in the 150s. So, it makes a very very strong case for crypto. And seeing this delay is even more so um in favor of of the trading on HIP 3.

[00:34:39]>> Yeah, >> I wouldn't buy now. I wouldn't buy at 180 to speculate on on it going above that. I don't think that the upside is that huge. Um, I'm also not going to try to rush in and get a bid in my brokerage account. I'm probably going to try to buy a couple of shares just to see how it goes from a technical perspective.

[00:35:00]>> Yeah. Yeah.

[00:35:00]>> I remember that when I wanted to do the what was it? Circle eight hours to get a damn share. I want to just see how it goes and I want to be able to rant about how bad our brokerage accounts are in Europe uh when I'm back on the show on Monday. But I'm not going to rush to get a huge position in. But I do want to have a significant position at some point.

[00:35:19]>> Yeah, I I actually have a bunch of charts to share as to what accumulating this might actually look like and how much patience you might actually have to show. Um, we'll talk about that in a sec. Um, I'm gonna throw to Funky first because he's got his hand raised. Ledge, I don't know if you could please in the meantime bring up the circle chart or just have it ready for when Funky's done because I want to look at the circle chart as a as a thought experiment. Uh Funky, your hand is raised. Welcome to the stage, man. What are you thinking about SpaceX today and our conversation on it so far?

[00:35:52]>> GM, wonderful conversation and you were spot on about the numbers that you mentioned on yesterday's show because you gave me the confidence to just do a little play around, open a long. I hit it at about 166. I set my takeprofit for 100 bucks. I wasn't doing a big trade. I even posted about it last night in the modern market. I was using Kinetics Mobile and I woke up and it was already cashed out. So, that was great on a little surge free date night. But more importantly, this conversation reminds me a lot of when I was day trading equities uh during COVID and I think it was [music] 2020 when Airbnb had its IPO and this thing was a mega hot IPO for equities back then. And I know Airbnb is not SpaceX, but to give you some historical context, because I remember trying to trade it and the volatility was insane.

[00:36:41]The IPO price was, I think, 68 bucks. It opened at 141. It got all the way up to like 170. It closed the day at like around the same place it opened, but you know, from the peak to where it started, from the IPO price, it ended up going up like 150%. So to your point B where you were talking about how you could see this thing going much much higher uh and especially when we think about the float dynamics involved it really could be insane and this is why I wanted to just do something quick and set a a takerit and and a stop-loss because I didn't really know but now I think when the trading begins today I would expect some some huge volatility and it may go much much higher than any of us I think can anticipate.

[00:37:30]>> Yeah. So, this is um appreciate the thoughts, Funky. I'm glad you got a free dinner for the weekend. I hope. Um this is kind of what I'm thinking. Like people I've seen so many mid takes around the valuation and people don't care about the valuation.

[00:37:52]Like I know look and this is what we're talking like for the next seven days or whatever the valuation doesn't matter. You're not trading a valuation. If we were trading valuations, you wouldn't be trading this stock anyway because it's not it's not worth this amount anyway. Like it's not about the valuation. You could say it's 1.75 trillion. You could say it's 17 trillion. The point is it's going to cost you $175. Uh sorry, it's going to cost you $135 at IPO to own one share.

[00:38:18]What's the valuation? Don't know. Forget the valuation. Do you want one share for 135? You can't buy it for 135 because now it's trading at 175. Do you want one share? How many shares do you want? And it sounds like too many people want some shares. So why should this not go 2x from here? Like circle came IPOed at 30.

[00:38:43]Uh led if you could just pull up the circle chart for a sec because I wanted to just look at it as a thought experiment. Right. Again, circles are hot things. first way to get stock exposure to crypto.

[00:38:55]Kind of a new green stock um potential in the sense that you couldn't really get exposure to stable coin industry, crypto industry with a well, you could get Coinbase, right? But it's it's kind of different.

[00:39:11]Um you couldn't get exposure to the stable coin complex before circle.

[00:39:17]And so L if you just do the alltime chart on this um what are we seeing here? So it came out [clears throat] no hang on >> the oneyear chart is the alltime chart basically right >> so you can't even see you can't even see where it IPOed because it was so no this can't be right. No what was circle >> circle IPO price was $100. Yeah. 130.

[00:39:47]>> Not 130. 30 >> circled in IPO at 130. IPO >> 31. 31. Sorry. It opened at 69.

[00:39:59]>> Yeah.

[00:40:00]>> And then it to 214.

[00:40:03]Like can you imagine how ludicrous? What were we doing then watching that go?

[00:40:07]Saying what on earth are we doing?

[00:40:10]sending this 4x sorry from the IPO price it went 7x 8x was it ledge 240 uh yeah >> it was higher >> 65 at its high so it went um almost almost 9x then >> absolutely ludicrous >> that was July August until August you were still in the 200s so you still had time to decide if you wanted to to cash in. Even if you had gotten it uh when it opened at 70 or in the 80s, you still or even at 100, you still would have been up a ton. And then it has been down ever since. Um going as low as as uh 49 here. Yeah. Going as low as 49. And now we are back at 83.

[00:41:03]>> Yeah.

[00:41:03]>> And that within a year.

[00:41:06]>> I kind of like it at 83 to be honest. I like it under 100 uh I think on on a long time frameish.

[00:41:15]But look, this is this is my point. Um I don't know if anyone knew what circle was supposed to be valued at. I think if you you all that you knew by being in crypto was that this should not be 100 something 200 something on the day because you we know how brittle uh some of its revenue is. You know how dependent it is on Coinbase. Uh we knew all kinds of things about circle. We just knew 100% it should not have been that high. It didn't stop it going that high though. And so you just have to separate in my opinion you have to separate the conversation about true valuation like what is this company worth versus what is this actually going to do in the next 48 hours, 72 hours, uh 5 days, 7 days. Um, and that's my thinking when it comes to this where all right it's a really expensive company approaching I think two trillion now right lege because it's because it's up basically 25% off the IPO price is it you know maybe just a touch above two trillion now I think we can see 177 divided by 135 means We are up uh 31% multiplied by 1.77 trill uh 2.3 trill.

[00:42:40]Yeah.

[00:42:42]>> And if this was to go up the same amount as uh circle went up, what uh what are we looking at?

[00:42:48]>> You don't want to do >> Why are you shaking your head? Why are you shaking your head? [clears throat] >> It's not going to 8x from 1.7 trill. And that's going to be >> 13 and a half or so trillion. It's going to be >> more% blow. You said you're telling me these blockchains mo movement labs.

[00:43:05]Okay, it's not not comparing movement labs to SpaceX. But the whole point of low float is that the valuations make no damn sense. That's the whole point. This is I don't like we we are from crypto.

[00:43:17]We know why you do low float. The valuations are not supposed to make any sense. These blockchains have had doubledigit billion dollar valuations and then of course they just go down for ages because they're not worth the thing that you're saying. And so yeah, people are buying movement labs at 10 bill. How does that make any sense? Doesn't make any sense. But that's the universe that we've moved into now because we want to do low float high FTV. So does this go to 10 trill? Like look, I'm not saying it goes to 10 trillion, but do people want SpaceX a share at 175 instead of 130? Would they buy it at 250? What's the difference between 170 and 220?

[00:43:53]What's the difference? I need to buy one share of SpaceX. What's the difference between 180 and 120? Am I going to top the market here? Probably is going down in pre-market. No, it's going up. This Chad is making it go up. So, what do you think?

[00:44:06]>> Um, I can give you another I can give you another fun fun stat for you. So, at IPO price, Elen shares um assuming all of his contingencies, Mars Colony, etc. He managed to do all of that at IPO price are worth 865 bill at the current price on Hyperlquid, his IPO sh his his IPO shares, his entire shares. um are worth $1.1 trillion dollars >> contingent on hitting everything he needs to hit to get all of the shares.

[00:44:36]But I don't know. I it's it's not going to go to 10 trillion.

[00:44:43]>> I just don't know why it wouldn't.

[00:44:47]>> Interesting is that Reddit uh I looked at Wall Street Bets yesterday. Reddit is super bearish on SpaceX.

[00:44:53]>> Good. This makes me bullish on it.

[00:44:56]>> Yeah. Look, you know what? Look, look, obviously I I I read everything on Twitter, basically. I don't tweet as much anymore, but I'm reading as much as ever, and I don't know, I've really generally disagreed with the general perspective here. I think people are super bare pill because they're looking at the valuation and I get it from a business perspective like they have a hell of a lot to prove but I just think especially crypto people like I feel like we've seen this many many times you know we know this this is us this is what we're n like this is what we are born for they're putting 4% of the tokens out there's there are no tokens to buy, but there are loads of people who want them.

[00:45:48]So, would you buy something you really want?

[00:45:52]If there was a jumper that you wanted, a nice sweater le you wanted to buy and it was 220 instead of 170, you're definitely going to buy it. You don't care. You specifically do not care. Tell me I'm wrong.

[00:46:04]>> No, you you're 100% right on that. Yeah, >> you're going to buy it for 300. Frankly, you're going to buy it for 500.

[00:46:11]depends on the quality of the Kashmir.

[00:46:12]But yeah, >> there you go. Kashmir sweater, $500. Um, all right. Well, I'm going to try and say something maybe to dampen it a little bit after this chat. Just having some fun here on a Friday pre-IPO.

[00:46:27]Um, Funky, your hands raised again. Come in, tell me I'm wrong. Uh, tell Legendary he's uh right. What do you want to tell us?

[00:46:37]>> I love FeistyB. I'm just going to start there. And but I would say this while I agree with you on principle about the retail demand, the one caveat I would offer here is that the bigger institutional players who have been in since the IPO, who have shares that they're going to dump, they may be ones trying to use retail as ex liquidity, selling their shares, locking in gains, and have the financial firepower to short it into the ground to make money on both ends of best trade. So that would be the only thing I'm wary of which is another reason I don't really want to play with the the share price again after making my little win.

[00:47:17]>> And do you think so just to clarify where you think that sell pressure is coming from? You think the institutional buyers of the IPO who will be unlocked straight away? You think those people could dump immediately for the plus 50% plus 60% and be out of it? Is that what your position is or that's what your thinking is?

[00:47:42]>> Yeah, just I mean having lived through the Airbnb thing and a lot of that seemed to be the case after the fact >> because we saw such I mean literally when it opened it just was like a rocket ship >> and it hit a high and it started really coming down strong. So it kind of came to the point where it closed or maybe a little bit below where it opened. So just I expect extreme volatility >> that I can get on board with.

[00:48:07]>> Yeah, that's people like founders fund who are up a lot like Peter has Peter Theo's founders fund has 3% in SpaceX.

[00:48:16]They put in 600 mil that of the IPO price alone is worth 50 bill plus. So >> these guys are locked. They're not unlocking today or >> but they can short they can short to hedge at some point.

[00:48:29]Yeah, they can. Um, yeah, I think um, so yeah, look, I I think all of those points are reasonable. I think you should expect extreme volatility today.

[00:48:44]I have shared why I think we go higher in the end. I don't know how much higher we go. Interesting point here from user DV V D4 V3 Hood gave me all my shares at 135. Interesting. Maybe some people are already learning what allocations they got. Um to be honest, one caveat I would say I don't trust anyone anymore. These guys saying, "Oh, this is 70 billion retail interest, 100 bill retail interest." I'm almost trading on the fact that people think that that is true. I don't necessarily even trust that it's true, frankly. like people are lying through their teeth across the board. Various people, politics, traders, uh company people, like it's just all Twitter, uh headlines all the time now. Um is is there really retail interest at that number? I don't know.

[00:49:36]Some people have said that there is. Um but I would be healthily skeptical. So, it's interesting to hear that some people getting granted all the shares that they have asked for. Um because if you thought that there was that much um or if someone told you that there was so much demand then maybe you shouldn't be getting everything right you should be getting half or a third or something like that. So look let's see let's see um I think we I'm nicely positioned from my position so I don't know I'm going to put a stop loss in to be like make sure I can just walk away and profit regardless. Would I long here if I had not got in position already?

[00:50:22][sighs] Probably I probably would, but it'd be smaller. Uh it' probably be a bit smaller. I'm a bit less certain. Um I probably would probably would, but yeah, I mean we're pushing towards 180 176 now. So, probably would, but that's not the position I'm in. So, uh, someone asking, we're kind of asking just stop loss B, no TP.

[00:50:56]What am I, what am I going to do taking profit? I don't want to take profit. I want to watch it go to 10 trillion, don't I? Um, no, I'm not taking profit.

[00:51:04]I'm just going to make sure I don't lose all the money and then I want to be in for the for the ride. Um, by the way, it's not like a I'm sure that this is not a very strategic way of trading, but like no, I I this is the thing, right? Let let me explain why for this specific thing. I believe it could go crazy. Like there can be mania in this. So, I don't want to have a take-profit. I just want to make sure that okay, if the mania goes the wrong way round that I walk away with money and so that I'll lock in. But I think it could go absurd. Like arguably it's absurd already, right? And so I'm thinking it can go more absurd. And so I want I don't want to cap that. And I'm happy to lose some of the, you know, say we go to 180 and you think, oh, that would have been a good place to take profit. I'm saying I don't care if I lose 180 to 160, say, and then it goes down to 160. Say I take profit at 160. I don't care if I missed 180 because I'm thinking what if it goes to 220. Um and I I want to be exposed to that higher thing and in the end if I walk away a little bit less that's okay. I can live with that. Um Dito saying then sell and short. Yeah. I mean once you once you go to 220 250 300 again I'm just saying numbers right. Um but if you know you prepare hypothetically for these scenarios. It was trading at 200 at hyp on hyperlquid for a few days at one point in time. Um and then yeah you start to think well could this be the time to flip and start to layer in shorts. Um I don't think I'd want to short over the weekend though. That's that would not be my position. I think even early next week it can be strongish. Um um user said, "Buy when the chart is low and sell when it gets really high."

[00:53:02]Fantastic advice. If if only it was that simple.

[00:53:07]Um okay, what else? What else? What else do we What else? Uh Led, we're coming towards the end of the show. We didn't do the rest of the headlines. I don't know if it matters. Do you want to touch on any of the final things or any final thoughts as we close out today? Someone asked what time we should have told people that what time is the IPO? Let me you you you tell us like one of the final headlines you like the idea of that you want to share. I'll check what time the IPO is. Um yeah, I'll touch quickly on the where is it? Uh on the inflation side of things. So there we go. uh PPI inflation uh produc index surged to 6.5% that puts it at the highest level since November 2022 uh with core PPI inflation coming in at 4.9%. The thing that I wanted to check in with is to see what is more important. Is it the fact that Trump said yesterday that the plan strikes against Iran are being called off or is it the fact that inflation is going up, PPI is going up? what does the market care more about and how is that reflected the question of um will we see a Fed rate hike in 2026?

[00:54:18]Let me get that up on screen. And we are actually going down on the news because it seems the that um the positive war news or called off strikes are more impactful. Yesterday on the show we talked that the odds went as high as 60% settled at 55% on the day. Now we are down 42%. Uh we're down 242%, sorry for that, to see a rate hike. So it's now not a coin flip anymore. It's um down quite a lot. So it does not really seem like the market cares too much about PPR inflation numbers. It cares more about what Trump is saying as was also indicated yesterday by um how high the S&P went after Trump did not post on true social and also looking at the pre-markets. Everything is up on the pre-markets. Everything is up 60 to 70 pips. So, it's looking like good trading day and it's looking like an interesting day for uh SpaceX to have its IPO today as well.

[00:55:21]>> Good stuff. One thing I'd say about um oil for example, you said uh chances of rate cuts actually gone down on the news that the conflict is not well they're not going to do any more strikes at least for now. Uh the price of oil as it is traded in the futures market is not reflective on the ground. Like I'm almost wondering whether it doesn't matter what the headline number is.

[00:55:45]Gasoline in the US has gone to $4. like it's not going down and the cost of a barrel in the Middle East and East Asia has been over 100 for a long time. That is the practical reality on the ground as things stand right now. People can say whatever they want about the price being 87 now and oh yeah the price of oil has gone down so now we you know everything's going to be fine. It's not fine because the price on the ground for the real barrel of real oil is not going down. it's going up or holding is a serious issue. So look, I know we're kind of living in this fantasy world where oh, you know, they I don't know who's doing what in the markets, what manipulations going on to keep the price of oil low and keep the price of stocks high.

[00:56:30]But inflation is not going to go away because in the end, uh money needs to be actually exchanged to get these things into the physical hands of people and it's not um working. The the futures market is not going to get you what you need. And so I would just be very conscious of this hiking cycle potentially to come. I think we've mentioned this before. Never had more cash on hand. Have been reducing more exposure. We were reducing exposure from last summer especially out of crypto. Um but uh been thinking more on that side even more recently. And I think this hiking cycle is a real real danger. I think maybe they'll fudge it a little bit, make sure all these IPOs get off without well, who knows? uh hopefully as a success, but there's real real turbulence to come as you go into potentially a hiking cycle and midterms and then you've got the whole thing of democrat the democratic cloud over your head and whatever redistributive policies they might make as AI has been so centralizing creating so so much wealth for such small such such few people these are all things to deal with all things to contend with and I don't know uh exactly where we're going to land on that right now. I think it's worth just, you know, checking yourself a little bit uh on those things. Um okay, so according to Google, the SpaceX uh ticker should be trading around midday.

[00:58:04]And Ledge, the only final thing I thought would be helpful, you produced this cool report in the Telegram. I don't know if you want to share it. I don't know if you made it look nice or whatever before you dropped it in the Telegram. Uh someone uh Radam Morali asked in the YouTube comments, "When is the selling pressure of SpaceX IPO? 180 days from yesterday. When exactly does it come in?" I'm almost certain that this document that you dropped in the Telegram would have included that information because I know the video had some details around it. Do you have Do you want to share the document that you dropped? Let's get it up on screen and maybe just pull out a couple of uh bits of details that you liked from it or that you found helpful because I shared the video with you, right? I said, "This is the video I watched. I thought it was super useful." You then created the document. What did you think was interesting? What pulled what what caught your attention?

[00:58:55]>> Yeah. So, we have um IPO day to date.

[00:58:59]IPO date today. we have um approximately after day five close the um footsy and the Russell fast entry into the index.

[00:59:10]Then couple of days later, Friday, June 26th, potential NASDAQ fast entry. Uh then we will have um 70,9 120 count days after that. Um the the first staggered unlocks and then around December 2026 um the broad 180day unlock window happening and then um in June 2027, another key day to watch a 366 day lock up. So, a year and a day for Musk and the largest holders.

[00:59:50]There's also a 5% unlock uh at the first earnings from if I remember correctly. I don't know when the first earnings will be, but you got to got to double check that as well. So, look, it's a fairly aggressive unlock schedule over the next year. The question is how much of that gets absorbed by a the fasttrack NASDAQ listing whenever it gets put into the S&P. I don't know when that will be. Um, so you've got those things to kind of absorb uh some of the cell pressure. I don't know if you can absorb this this volume of sell pressure. This is why I think yes, ultimately it will have to come off from whatever highs it puts in.

[01:00:27]Um, but at least for now, um, you've got this dynamic where no one's selling the first day or two. Um, and even if they are, you think you've probably got a lot of people coming in. Let's see. Let's see how many of those institutional people want to piss off Elon by getting given a an allocation and selling on day one, day two. You think Black Rockck are going to go and ask for 5 billion and then flip it for 30%. On the first day to piss off Elon? I don't think so. Um, that would be my view. Ledge, what do you think?

[01:01:02]>> Yeah, probably not. Probably not going to sell day one.

[01:01:06]>> You can't just You can't just put in five bill and piss off the biggest entrepreneur ever.

[01:01:12]and uh have be like blacklist yourself.

[01:01:16]You can't do that if you're a serious institution.

[01:01:18]>> An entrepreneur so powerful who's able to change the rules of the NASDAQ for his IPO.

[01:01:23]>> Yeah. Like you can't do that. Do you want to go to space in the future? Do you want your company in space? If you do, then don't sell the damn stock. Um all right, that's it for today. That's it for our show. We do this every single day, Monday to Friday, 7 a.m. Eastern time, live on XX video, YouTube, and you can catch us on Apple and Spotify as well. I might be, let's see, so we probably got a few hours before we go live, right?

[01:01:54]Well, so uh open will be in a couple of hours. Um maybe it might be five or so hours until the tick goes live. Maybe I'll be in the Telegram. Maybe we'll do some trading in the Telegram. at least like see what's going on. I I'll see if I if I'm not out then I'll be in the chat uh seeing what the volatility is going to be like. I think it'll be quite fun to try and uh trade some SpaceX a little bit later uh in the chat. So that's it for today guys. Hope you have a wonderful weekend. Hope whatever trading you do on SpaceX goes well. Uh nothing that we said here is financial advice. We're just letting it rip today.

[01:02:34]telling you what it is our opinion. Hope it goes well for you whether it's in this trade or another. Always survive.

[01:02:42]There's always another opportunity. Have a good weekend. Bye-bye.