The Fate of US Housing Market...

本站添加: 2026-05-09

[00:00:00]So today we're going to talk about the fate of the US housing market and we're going to talk a little bit about the renter side or investments and we're also going to talk about the homeowner side as well. And be sure to stay to the end because I have a chart of the entire United States that you're not going to want to miss. And as always, if you guys like this, please subscribe, hit the like button, smash the like button because I'm enjoying doing all these videos for you. So fact number one, this is the monthly supply of houses in the United States as they're delivered. As you can see, these went up and down over the years. These gray areas represent recessions. Most particularly, I want you to see how these recessions created a boom and bust and of course created decline in housing supply in each of these respective cycles. And of course, here we are today, significantly lower than you've seen in the past 30 to 40 years. So for you investors and you homeowners, this is called fact number one. So next we're going to talk about housing inventory. These are active listings in the United States. And these of course could be new home supply, but they could also be existing home supply that is actually being listed. So it should be no secret that listings are going down each and every month. And we're obviously at all-time lows which has created price increase. Low supply, high demand, higher price. At the same token, we also have a very low supply of delivered new housing, which also contributes to the low listing supply.

[00:01:37]So, where does this lead us now? today.

[00:01:40]Right now, today, we are a little over 5 million homes short based on the numbers I just showed you from new housing supply being delivered. There are two key points that I want to show you here.

[00:01:52]One, 2.3 million American households were formed from January of 2012 all the way through 2021, but just 7 million single family homes were built during that period, as you saw in the prior graph. So single family home construction is running at its lowest pace since 1995.

[00:02:14]So we have a growing population, a decline in home inventory added to supply, a low supply of listings because of affordability issues, which creates not only a shortage of over 5 million homes, but a housing crisis as far as price. So, I love these three graphs of causes, effects, and solutions because they break down some of the things that could be happening as a result of this housing shortage. My suggestion to you is to go through each of these categories and see what you can do as an investor or a homeowner to try to be ahead of this curve because these things are definitely happen. So, let's just take a look. Effects. People can no longer afford rents. Yes, we're starting to see rent control and rent caps all over the place and states have enacted rent control laws which we'll talk about later. People may no longer be able to afford electricity, homelessness. These are all effects that are happening right now. So, now let's move to the solutions. Social and public housing, which I know is being talked about, but they're not doing much about it.

[00:03:21]Building smaller homes definitely happening. Relaxed zoning laws definitely happening. Rent control.

[00:03:27]We're going to talk about that in a minute. Definitely starting to come up.

[00:03:30]Governments having to buy land and real estate just to provide affordable housing. One reoccurring issue here is government support for renters in case of financial crisis. I believe that the government had a hand in creating this housing shortage because people want to build, but governments have made it harder and harder to do so. There are numerous articles all over the internet about impact fees and zoning and regulations that developers have to do before they build. And so in a lot of cases, they just go somewhere else. The problem of course is that now there's no supply of new housing and it creates rents to go up and housing costs to go up for someone just to even build something. Now, we're facing an even bigger housing crisis because developers and contractors can't afford to build housing cheaply. Therefore, some of the solutions, not necessarily good ones, are going to be in this category here.

[00:04:28]And you as a real estate investor need to understand what's happening today so you can prepare and invest in the right market. So, one of the items of course is rent control. And I think it's important that you take a look at the actual definition. It's a legislative practice on annual rent growth in certain areas of cities and states. Once it's enacted, the rule restricts landlords from charging or raising rent or lease rates past a certain percentage. I'm going to tell you right now, a solution is needed, but this isn't it. We definitely need something to assist the renters, and it's not rent control. The one thing rent control does is it diverts investment to other areas. Think about it. If you're investing in some market and the government says you're only going to be able to raise your rents a certain amount and they're able to raise property taxes the way they want and utilities the way they want and expenses the way they want, why would you invest there? Rent control has proven in the past to deteriorate property investment.

[00:05:32]We're already starting to see this happening around the United States where local governments and supreme courts are coming after private property. There's going to be a lot of debate around private property versus rent control over the next several years. What you guys are going to see is massive political pressure around homelessness, around rent increases, around all kinds of issues. And their solution is going to be things like rent caps and rent control. Now, of course, this is rent control by state. And this is a great graph that was done by the National Multi-ousing Council. So, nmacc.org that I love because it talks about which states are more landlord friendly, which states are more tenant friendly. This chart should be a road map for you real estate investors to kind of see what the political pressures are in certain states and what the government officials are doing in those respective states.

[00:06:30]So, as you guys buy properties, raise money and invest, these are things that you should be looking at because these laws in some states are very relaxed and in other states they're very restrictive and your returns can drastically be changed if you're doing some kind of a value ad in one of these states and you're restricted on how much you can get for that value ad itself. Therefore, leaving that same property back in its original state. For those of you know that I love Buckminister Fuller, he had a saying, don't fight the forces, but work with them. As you start to see these different kinds of laws and restrictions around landlords or property owners, now you can make better decisions around that and not have to work against the forces, but with the forces and still provide good investments and good housing for yourself and for your investors. Again, thanks for listening. Make sure and smash that like button, subscribe button, because these things are really fun to put together.