When evaluating a college basketball recruit, teams must balance offensive value against roster redundancy and defensive limitations; Milan Momcilovic's exceptional shooting ability (40%+ from deep in Big 12 play) and spacing value could elevate Kentucky from mid-20s to top-10, but his lack of rebounding, playmaking, and defensive skills, combined with Cam Williams' similar role, creates potential redundancy that must be weighed against the opportunity cost of reduced minutes for developing players like Braden Hawthorne.
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NEW: Kentucky Target Milan Momcilovic LIKELY to Withdraw From NBA Draft, Can Mark Pope CLOSE?Added:
The Milan mom Chilovich saga is thankfully coming to an end and the latest news surrounding his NBA aspirations are definitely a major positive for Mark Pope in Kentucky.
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>> All right, what's going on Big Blue Nation? Welcome on in to Lockthon Kentucky, your daily Kentucky Wildcats podcast. I'm your host Lance Dawn and on today's episode of the show going to be talking about how Kucky's back court might be a little too thin. How Malachi Marino needs to have the off season of his life. But first, Milan Mom Chilovich, according to reports and rumors, likely to withdraw from the NBA draft tomorrow. What does it mean for Kentucky? We'll talk about it on today's episode, which is brought to you by FanDuel. Right now, new customers can bet just $5 and get $150 in bonus bets if their first bet wins. Head to fanduel.com to get started. Thank you guys so much for making Locked on Kentucky your first listen every single day. Want to remind everybody out there that we are free and available on all platforms. If you're watching on YouTube, would love it if you subscribe to the show and if you're listening on podcast, would also appreciate it if you subscribe there as well. All right, let's go ahead and get into it. Reports indicate that Milan Mchielich is probably coming back to college tomorrow. He's got about a day now to withdraw from the NBA draft. And while I try and respect the reporting that is placed behind a pay wall by some of the friends of the program or friends of our program here, uh sometimes things from KSR, things from Cat's Paws, things from various paywalled news sources, they get leaked on Twitter. And I feel like it would be a disservice to you to not talk about what's going on in the Kentucky sphere. And according to reports, and you could also get some of this from Jeff Goodman, you could get some of this on Twitter if you really wanted to instead of KSR or wherever have you.
Reports and rumors are indicating that Milan Mom Chilovich, not just his agent, but he himself are also having Zoom calls with multiple schools discussing what it would look like if he came back to college. And Jeff Goodman's reporting St. John's and Kentucky. Other outlets are reporting Kentucky, St. John's, Louisville, and Arizona. Some people are freaking out now, saying, "Is Arizona suddenly in this race?" When in reality, they had a Zoom call with Mom Chilovich's agent over three weeks ago.
Their legitimacy in this race, by the way, the Wildcats of Arizona, I should say, the legitimacy of their contention in this race is questionable in my opinion, but it's pretty clear. And this was kind of the obvious thing coming at least to me. Milan Mom Chilovich is going to be heading back to college unless something shocking happens tomorrow. And it makes a lot of sense financially. It makes sense whether it's just one season or if it's two. And you can go read more details as far as what's being said behind pay walls about what those deals look like, what those conversations look like. But the reality is that they're happening.
And if he comes back, Kentucky isn't just a major player in the race. In my mind, they would be the favorite. And that's not coming from a specific source or anything. It just it really does look like Kentucky is the favorite.
I want to talk about the positives here, but I also want to ask some questions.
It's the purpose of us talking about this tonight, outside of the fact that woo, yay, he's coming back.
The positives are he's the best shooter in college ball.
He is a rotation connector. He can hold different rotations, different types of personnel that Martin Pope wants to throw out there. He can hold things together through his spacing and his shooting gravity. It helps every situation.
He's got positional size. He has a perfect shot diet. He is exactly what Kentucky needs. They need another shooter. They need a confident, proven shooter.
He's already survived Big 12 play, shooting over 40% from deep. and he pairs well hypothetically with another spot-up shooter archetype on the wing or at the two guard spot for Kentucky.
He is a very good player, one of the best on Iowa State a season ago. The best shooter in college ball. He would bring insane value to Kentucky. We've already talked about it. Evan Mia agrees. It takes Kentucky from somewhere in the mid20s all the way up to possibly inside the top 10 if Milan Mchilovich were to be added to this roster.
But there are also some questions.
There are also some negatives.
Cam Williams does exist.
A 6'8 sharpshooter theoretically speaking.
That plays the position that Milan would.
You could also question Milan Momchovich's defensive abilities. While yes, Evan Mia, Advanced Analytics said that he had a very high defensive court impact, part of it has to do with the fact that he was playing on one of the best defenses in the nation alongside some of the best defenders in the country and it made him look better. In fact, I'm pretty sure Milan actually said the same thing as the NBA draft process started.
So, Cam in his own right, very good defender, very good 3 and D player.
Milan doesn't necessarily add, I think, the defensive ability that Cam does. And when you look at the fact that they're both 3 and D wing type players, is it redundant possibly to add Milan to this roster or is it valuable to have multiple guys? Because I'm sitting here telling you, in my mind, this is a valuable ad. I'm telling you, in my opinion, it would be a very good thing for Kentucky. But you have to look at both sides of it. Is it really that valuable or is this a redundant addition?
He also does not provide you any value outside of his gravity and his shooting.
Zero value. He's not a good rebounder.
He's not a good playmaker. He's not a great defender. He does not get stocks statistically. And then I test wise, he does not do literally anything other than bring some of the best gravity in all of college ball.
So, you're banking on him continuing to shoot well, right?
You're banking on him continuing to fire well fire or fire fire efficiently from beyond the ark.
Hypothetically, if he dips to meet Cam's averages, if he if he if he ends up being a 36 37% three-point shooter and he's not as good of a defender and he's not as good of a rebounder, what is the value in Milan Mchilovich other than there goes six or seven million? Is he just another body at that point? Now, I'm sitting here telling you again, I want to reiterate, I think he's a good ad. I think he'd be a very, very, very good ad. But these are these are questions. We can't just go into this blind saying, "Oh, it's going to be incredible. Oh, it's going to be amazing."
Can Cam and Mom Chilovich play at the same time? That's another really really tough question we have to ask here. Can they both playing basically the same way? They can't put the ball on the floor. Can they both play at the same time?
And what does adding Milan Mom Chilovich do to Braden Hawthorne's minutes? And those minutes were already going to be lean to begin with.
What does it do to a player that in my mind has one of the highest ceilings on this team to replace that opportunity with a player that has already hit his ceiling? We know who he is and I think that there's only opportunity for slight to impactful regression.
Again, for a third time, I will tell you if Kentucky adds Milan Mchilovich, they become the contender that they need to be.
There are so many different ways to look at this though. We cannot walk into this blind. So yes, he's probably returning to college ball. How valuable is he is a very fair question to ask. I've got more questions outside of Milan if he does commit to this team. I've got more questions and then I want to talk about Malachi Marino here and just how important his off season will be in just a moment. Before we do it though, I'll tell you guys about our friends over at FanDuel. The NBA playoffs are here where every single possession matters. If you're looking to get even closer to the action, FanDuel has a great offer to get you started because right now new customers can bet just $5 and get $150 in bonus bets. if your first bet wins.
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All right, continuing along here on today's episode episode of the show.
Thank you guys so much for watching.
About 150 of you here in the live chat here late late late here on this fine Tuesday evening.
Subscribe if you have not already.
Milan Mom Gilvich could very well end up being a Kentucky Wildcat in the next 72 hours. And if he does, it's something to be celebrated and it's something to be very very excited about. However, I I try and do my best on this show to give you give you guys both sides of the equation. We're not just looking at why it could be awesome. We're not just looking at why Kucky's going to win a title because of it. We're not just looking at why it makes sense.
We're asking the questions. Is it redundant with Cam Williams? What about his defensive abilities? What value can he provide outside of his gravity? It does he need to provide any any value outside of his gravity? If he to dips to meet Cam's averages, what does he become? Can Williams and Mom Chilovich play at the same time or does that limit Kucky's offensive versatility? What does adding Mom Chilovich do to Braden Hawthorne's minutes, somebody that could absolutely blossom into an NBA player this season?
And then more questions come outside of Milan Mchiel.
Usman and Jai Cam Williams and Mal and Mom Chiovich well actually just including him they are all players all players who are perimeter focused wings forwards wings/forwards McBride is the only one between the three and the four that can actually put the ball on the floor and drive. He's the only one and Jai is not going to be doing it consistently. Cam Williams has not shown that that's part of his game consistently and Milan is not doing it consistently.
Justin McBride is it working down the rotation.
There are a large swath of just connectors on Kucky's roster between Alex Wilkins and Justin McBride.
Braden Hawthorne, if he does get to play, which at this point if Bolain comes, seems less and less likely that he's gonna have impactful substantial minutes. But if Hawthorne does play, he has to break that up. He has to be somebody that can put the ball on the floor a little bit, which also might be a tough ask consider considering he's still trying to put on weight. Or Cam is going to have to get a little bit more comfortable with the ball in his hands every seven possessions or so, right?
Kucky's back court on top of all of this, on top of the connectors, on top of maybe the lack of versatility in some of the wings that Kentucky has minus McBride.
Kucky's back court is thin in my opinion. We'll get to that later in more depth unless Mason Williams gets some legitimate like eight minute run.
This is basically this is effectively a three to three and a half minute three and a half man rotation.
It's kind of honestly what Michigan had with Elliot Cadok, LJ Kase, and Trey McKenna, and then Rody Gale had to slide up at the end of the year whenever Kase got hurt. But the backcourt depth is thin. So if somebody gets hurt, the actual versatile parts of parts pieces of your offense, then paired the one of them gets taken down, then paired with your connectors who only do one thing well, and then your questions about the front court possibly. Do they get to meet their ceiling? like that. This all sort sort of piles on to itself.
And I know that we're spending most of today's show looking at the negative.
But I think it's fair before we look at all the positives. If Mom Chilovich does commit here, I'm trying to get out ahead of this.
If he does commit, we are going to celebrate it for months. So right now, let's look at all of the options. And you're right, Douggee. Milan, in my opinion, will be playing the three, not the four.
If we add Moniovich, do you think it makes us a title contender? Yes, I think it does. It puts you in that conver back in that conversation.
Do you actually get there? I don't know.
Malachi Marino though, outside of Mom Chiovich, even if Mom Chilovich does come here, Malachi Marino has to be more athletic in order to meet his potential.
He has to be more athletic. Every day, every day, effectively, I see a Brandon Ramsey tweet from KSR and I feel just a little bit more sane.
Like, my takes on Kentucky basketball aren't as crazy because I know that Brandon Ramsey is effectively saying the same thing that I'm trying to say every other time he tweets out. And he had a great tweet uh earlier today at B Ramsey KSR.
Malachi Marino rated very highly as a freshman in both rebounding and shot blocking. Ramsay says per Kim Pom, there were only five freshmen who were ahead of Marino when looking at offensive rebound percentage, defensive rebound percentage, and block percentage. That number was two prior to the month of March. None of those big men posted a 13.6% assist rate though, which Marino did.
Brandon Ramsay says Malachi Marino needs to improve only marginally as a rebounder, primarily defensive rebounding and as a rim protector. Just barely. Just got to get a little bit better there. However, Ramsay says where the big sophomore league could leap could come is on the offensive end.
Per Synergy, Malachi Marino finished in the 19th percentile of points per possession via layups. He shot just 41% on layups in the half court. 41%.
As Ramsay says, that is inexcusable for a sevenfooter. Doesn't matter what his play style is. That is inexcusable for a seven- foot man to finish at the rim layups 41% of the time. He was also in the 28th percentile of points per possession as the pick and roll man and 52nd percentile of points per possession on postups.
So, what does Brandon Ramsey say he needs to do? What have we been talking about? What has Pope been talking about?
This is what Ramsay says. Gaining strength, adding a little explosiveness, and simply becoming more confident as a finisher is where he goes from all freshman to all SEC. That's how he goes from a serviceable starting five to a good starting five. And that is how he approaches the NBA lottery. He needs to dunk more. He needs to finish right hand over left shoulder hook shots more. and he needs to average 12 points per game on 60 plus percent shooting. That should be the goal. Adding range can be a junior year goal or something he adds to the next level, but as a sophomore, it should be all about improving as an interior fiveman.
And and Brandon Ramsey is 1,000% right.
This is all about what can you do to improve yourself as a traditional five.
We'll get to the stretch five stuff later. We'll get to how you shoot from the perimeter later. And I tweeted out about that recently saying somebody tell me why he can't become that eventually.
He can be a Janai Broom type player because of his playmaking and his passing. But for let's forget about that for a second. For now, for this very moment, the only thing Marino should be focused on is being more athletic, being more explosive, and being stronger right at the basket on both ends of the floor.
It's going to come a little easier on the defensive end. It's going to be a little easier to hit the hit the mark that he needs to. But on offense, 41% on layups isn't excusable. That's pathetic.
To be in the 28th percent of 28th percentile of points per possession as the pick and roll man is really bad.
Malachi has to become a much better play finisher at the rim. If he does, it really helps out Kucky's offense. You talk about that spacing and that gravity to have a fiveman who you can't isolate and is as good of a passer as Marino is paired with the shooting of a Cam Williams, a possible Milan Mchiel, the ceiling of Alex Wilkins shooting at the two guard spot. There are so many things to like if Malachi Marino starts inside out and becomes better there. He has to be more explosive. He has to be more athletic. He has to have more touch. He has to have more polish as an offensive player. That is where he will make his money. That is where he will thrive this season. And it will eventually lead to him thriving in the NBA if he figures it out right now. He's got a massive summer ahead of him. And I think that Brandon Ramsay is 1,000% right.
1,000%.
I want to talk for a minute about the back court to wrap up the show because uh I am a little worried. I'm I'm a little worried because I think Kucky's back court is thin.
Maybe I'm wrong.
Raise your hand if you're already stressing over the back court rotation.
You may say, "Lance, what are you talking about? Wilkins and yellow.
They're going to be good.
It's not what I mean.
Raise your hand if you're already stressing about who's going to get injured.
It's not rational. It shouldn't be expected that KY's going to have somebody get hurt.
But at this point, after more than half a like longer now than than half a decade of consistent guard injuries, it's feeling reasonable to assume that something is going to go wrong. And with the way that Kentucky has sort of tried to prepare themselves this off season, it seems like Mark Pope and his staff kind of have that feeling as well.
say, "Okay, if we keep getting players hurt, then we have to sort of cover our bases here. We have to be a little careful. We have to be a little cautious. We have to get a little bit more depth. The injury bug is no longer a bug. It's something much bigger than that.
Right?
So, round three here at Kentucky, Pope's got it. he's going to have an answer if things go south because surely Kentucky has prepared themselves well this time, right? Well, while yes, they've gotten a couple of players, it's a little comp it's a little complicated. So, the answer to the question, what do we do for Pope this off seasonason was getting Dio and Wilkins right out of the portal.
Two solid really two solid to great players with surface level. If you just look at points per game, rebounds and assists, they've got good counting stats.
Mark Pope himself when asked on social media what he liked about the players that he got here at point guard, he said, quote, "One of the top priorities for us going into the portal was us finding creators. These are two of the elite creators in college basketball.
They're going to form a dynamic duo.
They're both over 30% assist rate. There is only one roster in the country with two players over a 30% assist rate. It's going to be awesome." We've noted this on the show before. Yukon, only other team here that's got that's got two players with a 30 plus% assist rate. I think it was Dimmery and Malachi Smith.
Kentucky wanted creators. They wanted to go out and get guys to bolster the depth here. And then you throw fourstar point guard Mason Williams into the mix and it looks like Kucky's technically got three options here. It's awesome on the surface, but Kentucky doesn't plan on playing Alex Wilkins at point guard.
They they they don't plan on playing him the majority. The lion share the minutes at point. It's going to be Zoom Dio, right? Wilkins is going to play the two.
And as we've mentioned, there are several things to worry about. There are several things to like.
First and foremost, both Yaloa and Wilkins were very, very high usage players at their previous schools. They needed the ball in their hand to make an impact on the game. Trying to play both of them at the both of them at the same time, similar to Cam and Mom Chilovich, could end up being redundant. So the answer to that then is scale Wilkins down, make him play off ball more, let him be that two guard and ask him to be more of a play finisher than a creator.
Well, what do you have to point to there to indicate that he's really capable of doing at the that at the at the level that you need? His efficiency wasn't great. He shot well around the basket, 62%, but overall his efficiency was bad.
A 103.9 offensive rating is really bad.
32% from three, 56% true shooting.
That's not what Kentucky needs out of their starting shooting guard. They need better. And the shot diet is also not what Kentucky needs out of their starting shooting guard. 41% of his shots were from three, but 29% were from the mid-range and just 31% at the rim.
It should be rim and threes. Ram and threes. You should start taking the mid-range, not out of it, but it shouldn't be 30 29 to 30%.
And when I put my transfer portal big board together back in March, my exact words on my Google sheet when describing Alex Wilkins were bad shot diet, not enough to justify it. Would need to scale way, way down. This is a context dependent take. And the context paired with Dio does not scream match made in heaven. There's also the 22% turnover rate. The fact that Wilkins, as we've discussed, is 6'5, but also 175 pounds.
We're going to bring this back to injuries. You want to talk about SEC physicality? You want to talk about Kentucky not being able to keep their guards healthy healthy. I'm not saying here that Alex Wilkins is going to get hurt, but just based on how the last last half decade plus has gone in Lexington, we need to reiterate it's fair to assume that something's going to go bad. And if you're looking at a rail thin shooting guard who's never played shooting guard before, that's going to ask to be different.
There's some volatility there. That's the bad for Alex. Inefficient shot diet, turnover pro, needs to get stronger, and he's not a two guard.
But the good news is here is that his shot diet will almost certainly be different at Kentucky. It it kind of has to be. You need to be a more of a spot-up catch and shoot type two guard and his his efficiency technically should increase. And then you pair that with the fact that he's actually a pretty good ball handler. He becomes a a threat.
How much should his efficiency increase?
We don't really know. What we do know is that he shot 37% on catch and shoot shots, outside shots at Furman, which surprisingly was actually dead on par with Colin Chandler a season ago. So, you've got that and then you also have to acknowledge the amount of stress that the Paladins put on uh put on Wilkins last year has to be it's got to be acknowledged. He had a 34.3% usage rate. Like per possessions, he was used on over a third of them, which was seventh nationally. Only six other players were used more than him. They ran him into the ground. They asked him to do literally everything. If you take some of that on ball pressure off of his shoulders, there's reason to believe that he should be more efficient and impactful. and we've got promise to work with here, but that's all it is. It is a hypothetical increase in efficiency. It is projection. We haven't seen it. It could work, but there's nothing concrete to suggest that it will definitely change.
And if Wilkins goes down, forget about Dio getting hurt for a second. If Wilkins goes down, what does Kentucky do? It's the Jerome Morton show, right? At shooting guard. And I'm not mad at Morton at shooting guard, but the numbers say he's a really bad defender who also needs the ball in his hands in order to be an impact player on offense. And I've already talked about it here on the show, but to keep it brief, he's a legitimate combo guard, but his biggest strength outside shotmaking, primarily comes off the dribble. He needs the ball in his hands, and it takes that away from Dio, who also needs the ball to be an offensive engine.
He's also Morton not a great downhill driver. Neither is Zoom, which is weird for his size. And if Zoom is out of the game, if there is foul trouble, if he gets hurt, if he needs a breather, what does Kentucky do? Does Mason Williams, a four-star freshman guard that nobody knew about up until about a month and a half ago, just slide in and be the guy Kentucky needs? If if Alex Wilkins goes down, this becomes a huge problem.
It becomes a huge problem for Kentucky.
The Wildcats in my mind are thin again at guard where they've got effectively three answers. Three answers at point but but one of them is really the only answer and the other one they're trying to make a shooting guard and the guy behind him is redundant with Dio in a in that back court. Like there are so many different things to point to that we've already talked about on the show to believe why these guys are going to work out and why they're going to be good and why it's going to be the best back court Kentucky has had under Pope and it might be one of the best that he ever has.
But there's also just as much reason in my mind to to to look at this and go this could go south in a hurry. So, while we like to sunshine pump, while we like to say everything's going to be okay, everything's going to be great.
You got to look at both sides of the equation here, there's a lot of work that needs to be done. And the worst part about it is we won't really know.
We won't really know until we see these kids play how things are going to pan out. And it's going to take an it's going to take volume. It's going to take a legitimate sample size, right?
So, I don't I don't know. I'm a little worried. I'm a little worried.
Let me know what you think in the comments below.
That's going to do it for today's episode of the show. Thank you guys so much for tuning in. Subscribe wherever you are watching. You can follow the show on Twitter at lockdown. Follow me on Twitter at lance and follow the show over on Instagram. That is at Kentucky Podcast.
Any questions, comments, concerns, you can leave those in the YouTube comments below. You can hit me on the socials. I will see you all tomorrow for another episode of Locked on Kentucky. Hope you guys have a great rest of your evening.
Get some rest and God bless.
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