"Why 'The Big Print' is the Catalyst for the Ultimate Commodity Supercycle"

Added: 2026-05-26

[00:00:01]Hey everyone, hope you're having a good day. My name's Andy, my channel's Finding Value.

[00:00:06]Today we're going to go through Twitter and see what people are sharing on sharing on social media. I'll interject my financial opinions as we go through it.

[00:00:13]Generally related to three different topics, wealth building, commodities, and or financial topics.

[00:00:18]Let's dive right in, take a look, see what's going on today.

[00:00:22]And if you want to follow me, it's @finding_finance, and if you want to join our community finding hyphen value.com.

[00:00:28]I dive deeper into all these different sectors looking for investment opportunities and sharing those opportunities with everybody in the community.

[00:00:35]I am generally looking at sectors and opportunities that people are not looking at even on Twitter.

[00:00:44]So there's a lot of sectors I'm buying that that people might be like, what the heck is he doing?

[00:00:51]Yeah, that's that's when they're the cheapest.

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[00:01:23]So Patrick Karim says, stock markets priced in crude oil.

[00:01:27]Something important is happening.

[00:01:30]A historical 145 years of the S&P priced in crude oil.

[00:01:37]Each one of these downward moves is an oil bull market.

[00:01:42]And if you've noticed, we have a break in upward momentum just recently, where oil is going to start a major bull era for oil. He's got question marks.

[00:01:56]So each one of these momentum breaks, uh where crude oil starts to outperform the S&P, we have seen uh oil start a major leg higher.

[00:02:08]Um I'm in the camp that that is going to occur.

[00:02:12]Why would I be in that camp?

[00:02:15]The dollar is going to weaken against commodity currencies, and that's when oil takes off.

[00:02:21]Gold's already ripped. Silver has broken out of its 45-year cup and handle.

[00:02:26]Interest rates on the 2-year, the 10-year, and even the 30-year have all broken to the upside. Basically, I can't find anything that would disagree or give me a red signal where something is wrong.

[00:02:43]It's all green.

[00:02:45]As in, green means go for oil going higher.

[00:02:49]Now, that doesn't mean in the short term that we can't bounce all over the place.

[00:02:55]So, I think that's what's occurring. Uh people use price as a signal and signal on only.

[00:03:03]I look at all the correlated assets, chart those correlated assets out, and then I gain my signals from what those assets are doing and correlated to oil cuz oil generally lags behind those other assets in some of these bull markets.

[00:03:25]North Star says, "Both long-term and short-term, oil is doing exactly what it is it was forecasted to do."

[00:03:33]Uh and again, he's using gold and silver, and I agree with him here.

[00:03:37]Uh when gold and silver start to rip, they all generally rip together.

[00:03:41]Sometimes oil leads, sometimes gold and silver leads. And I know everybody wants like this They want this layout where it's like, "Well, this goes first, and this goes second this goes third. Every bull market doesn't act like that every single time.

[00:03:57]Sometimes like in this era of the early 2000s, oil led gold and silver.

[00:04:06]In the 70s, silver and gold ripped before oil did.

[00:04:11]Now, this could be very similar to the 70s.

[00:04:15]We already see that gold and silver are ripping.

[00:04:21]And oil is just lagging behind. So, oil in in my opinion will follow it and this one he didn't chart the the the move higher here.

[00:04:29]But it it's it's playing out the way that basically we think it's going to to play out. The The assets are correlated.

[00:04:37]Gold and silver ran, oil follows and that's what it's doing. It's following.

[00:04:42]And everybody's like, well, you know, stock is going to break out. It's not going to do that.

[00:04:45]They're missing the big picture, guys.

[00:04:47]They're missing entirely the big picture. They don't know the correlations that exist in the markets when these commodities start to pop off.

[00:04:56]We're in a commodity supercycle.

[00:04:59]They're fighting the trend. They're fighting the supercycle nature. Like they're they're not aware of it.

[00:05:07]I wasn't aware of it back in the 2000s and I didn't know that we were even in a bottoming pattern in the 2000s. I don't even know if people understand that we are in a bottoming pattern for commodities of the 2000 to 2011 move.

[00:05:23]In a declining interest rate environment.

[00:05:27]Anyway, we're going to break through this resistance. We'll get above 140 and and I agree with him. Oil is likely to move well past 200 then 300 plus. Yeah, it's going to go somewhere up there.

[00:05:38]Totally agree. But that's towards the end of the bull market, probably early 2030s would be my guess.

[00:05:45]Um we may even peak out in 2035 or something.

[00:05:50]And maybe we get up there early 2030s to 150, 200, 300 and then peak all the way in mid-2030s at 500 to 1,000. I don't know.

[00:06:00]Now, people are going to say that's impossible. People can't afford it.

[00:06:03]They're going to make up all these excuses.

[00:06:05]Again, you're you're looking at it from a from a demand-supply standpoint. You're not looking at it like the dollar and they do they do a gigantic big print where they print a whole bunch of money.

[00:06:18]Maybe they do QE and the dollar drops like a rock.

[00:06:22]That's what is happening or or is going to happen.

[00:06:26]And I don't think people It's It's like it doesn't register in their head.

[00:06:31]It's like they're just hitting dense.

[00:06:33]Well, it's not I I wouldn't even say it's dense. It's like hitting air an air pocket between their ears. Like they do not understand this and I don't know why. It's like just look at history.

[00:06:44]Dollar drops a huge amount and then anything priced in dollars goes way up. It's like duh.

[00:06:50]Duh.

[00:06:53]Coming down. Blah blah. How many ships pass through the strait? 33.

[00:06:59]Normally 140. Not open yet. Tick tock.

[00:07:03]You know You know what I hear not a lot of people talk about?

[00:07:06]Here's something I don't hear a lot of people talk about.

[00:07:09]And and and this is what I'll say.

[00:07:12]If you were a ship owner and let's just say that you slipped your ship out of the Hormuz.

[00:07:20]You got it out of there. You're one of the 33 that got it out of there.

[00:07:24]Why would you go back?

[00:07:27]Why would you tie your ship back up in that strait and have it sit there and do nothing?

[00:07:35]Why would you risk not getting insurance on your ship?

[00:07:38]Why would you risk hundreds of millions of dollars for the cost of the ship and its cargo and paying ludicrous amounts in insurance. Why don't Why Why wouldn't you just avoid the whole Hormuz Strait entirely if you could?

[00:07:52]What if that occurs? What if the ships get out and they're like, "Nah, I don't want to go through there again. See you."

[00:07:59]You know, that's a possibility.

[00:08:02]Um I wouldn't want to risk it, but that's just me.

[00:08:06]Jeff Currie says, "Five deal announcements, zero closed yet. That's a trend. Sell the tweet, buy the molecule.

[00:08:15]Iran's leverage increases with every day that passes and inventories decline while it decreases for the West.

[00:08:23]Thank you for Squawk CNBC Asia for having me on this morning. Attached to this 50 years of efficiency made oil cheaper per unit of GDP but more irreplaceable in function. It is the rare earth of the macro system.

[00:08:41]Yeah, I don't I don't think a deal's going to go through here anytime soon.

[00:08:44]And if it does, I don't think that changes the dynamics on the long term of oil. I think we're going higher.

[00:08:51]Um I bought oil before before this whole Strait of Hormuz garbage came.

[00:08:57]I was almost like the chart baked in uh what was going to happen.

[00:09:03]It's like it knew before it was going to happen that it was going to happen.

[00:09:07]Um here's the oil chart just to show you guys kind of how I do things.

[00:09:11]Uh this is the uh this is logarithmic.

[00:09:14]Looking at it, we've had these, you know, consolidation zone, consolidation zone, consolidation zone, and it is of my opinion that we're going to break out of this consolidation and have 120 be the floor of a new higher um move. And I think that we will trade between maybe 6 700 dollars and a floor of 120.

[00:09:37]Uh that was the same way where I mean the floor here came way up. That was 10 bucks and it used to be $3.

[00:09:46]So three to the floor of 10 and then the height here was 40. So we went from 40 to 10 mainly and then we went from uh 40 being the floor all the way up to 140.

[00:10:00]So I think that we're going to go all the way up maybe three, four, $500, maybe even 600 and then the floor be something like 150, 120 or higher, maybe 200 the floor.

[00:10:14]I think when looking at the the cycle and the psychology of the cycle uh I'm going to move this dot here. So I think this dot of where we are today uh is somewhere like over here.

[00:10:27]So we're we're somewhere in that section there uh where we are right up against resistance. We haven't broken out yet.

[00:10:34]We could go sideways for a few months.

[00:10:37]Uh maybe we do that for a few months, maybe even five or six months.

[00:10:41]And then uh we break out and then this guy is going to be the thing that rips it.

[00:10:47]Uh so this that's what rips higher here and I mean that that's kind of my viewpoint.

[00:10:51]And the reason I have that viewpoint is because we're in a commodity bull market. Commodities are cheap to financial assets.

[00:10:57]I think I mean we're seeing bottoming patterns across all of these different commodity equities.

[00:11:03]I have no reason to think that's not going to be the case. Even the fractal of last bull market that I grabbed here lines up damn near perfectly with what we're experiencing today.

[00:11:17]So I mean to me it just seems kind of like obvious to me. It's like, "Okay, this seems pretty pretty well lubed for the cycle here."

[00:11:29]Uh like we're we're we're going through the same um chart patterns, the same herd psychology is being displayed.

[00:11:39]We've got all of the signals in other commodities that they're going to go higher. Copper ready to rip higher, gold, silver, uh platinum broke out. I mean, come on, guys. This is to me it's like it it it doesn't even need that much that much explanation uh if you follow it at least.

[00:12:00]Uh coming down, copper. There's copper breaking out. See, this this is copper and energy are all tied together. And demand for copper, yeah, it's got some, you know, economic, you know, the the strength of the economy is baked in there and stuff.

[00:12:14]Now, I know there's people that are worried about a recession. Like, well, should I save for a recession or whatever? It's like, well, I mean, would copper be doing this in a recession?

[00:12:23]Um in all honesty, would copper be doing this? Would it be breaking out of a 25-year breakout ascending triangle just like gold did?

[00:12:32]I mean, I would interest rates be breaking higher like they are?

[00:12:38]No, they wouldn't.

[00:12:40]So, I mean, I struggle with some of the the the the things that people say on Twitter and and on YouTube and it's like we're going to have this gigantic depression. I'm like, where are the signals then?

[00:12:55]I mean, shouldn't this be breaking down if we're going to get a depression?

[00:12:59]Are we going to have like a massive hyperstagflation?

[00:13:04]Maybe.

[00:13:07]Is everything going to go up and it's just a hyperinflation?

[00:13:11]It could be. I mean, maybe maybe I'm wrong. Maybe I'm looking at these charts with these massive breakouts and uh maybe some other asset classes could outperform like gold. And I'll show you a chart later here with the gold-to-copper ratio that that Brady >> [clears throat] >> thinks gold will outperform.

[00:13:31]I'm still in the camp and I'm open to say that I don't know what will exactly outperform. I know things that are breaking out like copper here and I know there's a massive mismatch between demand and supply in the future. Big deficits are coming.

[00:13:47]But you could probably say that even in precious metals, both gold and silver.

[00:13:52]I always go back to the ratio charts. I price everything in gold. I consider gold to be money.

[00:13:59]And there's the chart there of the ratio chart of copper to gold.

[00:14:04]Now this to me looks like a falling wedge and that we're going to break higher this way. That's how I view it.

[00:14:13]And I think platinum's going to outperform gold and silver.

[00:14:17]I which does well when the economy does well and will be tied with copper.

[00:14:21]That's why I'm bringing it up.

[00:14:24]So I don't I don't think I'm in Brady's camp necessarily.

[00:14:30]I'm just remaining open to see what happens here. This is a falling wedge in my opinion where this could break out and we could see, in my opinion, platinum, copper, silver, oil outperform gold.

[00:14:45]Now there are other people that are in the exact opposite camp that think very similarly to me.

[00:14:52]They think gold's going to continue to outperform and that gold is going to rapidly increase in valuation against economic sensitive assets like copper, silver, oil.

[00:15:09]And I I'm open. Not saying they are wrong. I'm open to see what happens. I'm still in the camp that these will go up and I think that we could see the economy do well for at least another five years.

[00:15:24]That's kind of my take. I'm not saying that we can't have a little bit of a slow down in between, but I think the economy can still do well because of the real estate market and and people are calling me crazy because everybody's in this doom camp where everything's going to crash and real estate's going to go down by 30 or 40% even though it's never done that in history in a single year.

[00:15:48]That's where they are.

[00:15:50]And I I struggle because I think we're going to get massive inflation, interest rates are going to go above 5% and I think copper's going to rip, energy's going to rip. I think precious metals will rip.

[00:16:02]That's the whole commodity super cycle um thing that I subscribe to.

[00:16:08]Coming down, it says all this propaganda is about removing every single speculator from the oil markets and pumping stocks.

[00:16:16]It will work until it doesn't.

[00:16:19]Severe operational stress across across the global oil complex will set in over the next two months of summer driving season and Gulf power burn hits.

[00:16:29]I agree. I agree.

[00:16:31]Um I think things will start hitting here in the next few weeks uh and then it will just be drawing on inventory and we'll see what they can do.

[00:16:41]You know, gravity is not going to pull towards 55. No way.

[00:16:45]I just I don't really I don't know how this guy's thinking about this. I just don't get it.

[00:16:50]I try to understand their viewpoint. I'm very sympathetic and empathetic to all of other people's viewpoints, but I I I just it doesn't make sense, guys.

[00:17:00]That's not what I see in the charts.

[00:17:02]That's not what I pulled up when I looked at my US oil chart. That's not what the fractal um suggests.

[00:17:11]And and and and I'm I'm sticking to my herd psychology fractal analysis.

[00:17:16]Like this is not suggesting a break lower down to 50.

[00:17:20]Like I mean if you look at this, I don't know how you don't have pattern recognition. Like I don't know how your brain is screaming like, "Hey look, this is the same type of move that we did from 2000 to 2008.

[00:17:33]And very similar move to this one.

[00:17:36]It just looks a little bit different.

[00:17:37]It's the same dang move.

[00:17:40]And this move here was from the 30s all the way up to 1980.

[00:17:43]This move here is the same move that silver is doing.

[00:17:50]I mean, if I were to pull up silver here and overlay it, it it it's the same thing. Here, let me get silver out of here. Let me go on log.

[00:18:00]Let me do Let me put this in a How come I'm not getting the Oh.

[00:18:07]I bet you Got to do it this way.

[00:18:12]And then we go log.

[00:18:14]And and what I'm saying is this here from 80 to to this area there is this move here in silver. Now silver broke out of the consolidation.

[00:18:26]This will break out of the consolidation.

[00:18:28]And you've got people literally literally and and you can do the US 10-year here.

[00:18:35]The the this is what's driving it.

[00:18:36]Yields are driving this move.

[00:18:38]These are all the same move.

[00:18:41]And you're you're have you're telling me you've got a breakout here in in the 10-year yield breaking out and you have a breakout in in silver. It's all This one here you know what I call this?

[00:18:50]I call this the Loch Ness Monster pattern. So you've got kind of the the moves here and then the head sticking out with the little That's the Loch Ness Monster pattern.

[00:19:00]That's This is where you make the most amount of money. The Loch Ness Monster pattern is where you make the most amount of money because you're breaking out of a major base.

[00:19:09]And we've got a major base breakout here uh in oil.

[00:19:13]And people are sitting here, "We're going to go back down to $50."

[00:19:17]Oh my god.

[00:19:20]I I can't believe it, guys.

[00:19:22]W- Where Where is he getting these drugs?

[00:19:28]Uh most investors don't do well in the markets. Average investor 3.6%.

[00:19:32]It says you know my annualized return at least over the 6 years is between 40 and 50%. I don't have the exact. I I'm too lazy to to add it all up. It It could even be 50 something.

[00:19:46]Um from 2020.

[00:19:48]Uh but yeah, I'll I'll I'll blow this out of the water. This is like W- We can beat this. And you know what the major thing is?

[00:19:55]It's your buy point.

[00:19:57]Uh average investors chase prices and it just completely screws your asymmetry.

[00:20:04]Uh and your asymmetry is what gives you the returns. You have to buy early in the market moves and patterns to get you the to net you the big moves.

[00:20:13]Uh that does require patience.

[00:20:16]Patience for the setup to materialize and then patience for when you buy it, you may be down for a little bit cuz you need a a new market condition to come into play for the cycle to kind of cycle back up.

[00:20:33]Try to buy assets at a discount rather than buy earnings. Walter Schloss. What does that mean?

[00:20:40]Well, a lot of people will say, "Well, their earnings. Their earnings are going up." That's not what you want to chase.

[00:20:46]You want to chase buying the company at a steep discount.

[00:20:51]The discount is not earnings increasing, even though that may drive the stock.

[00:20:57]You don't want to have the earnings drive the stock higher where you're paying a lot for the asset.

[00:21:05]It's better to not have the earnings, but pay a steep discount to your asset valuation and have the earnings come later.

[00:21:16]That's the key to success.

[00:21:18]That's exactly how I invest.

[00:21:22]The world's giant oil fields by Matt Simmons in 2002 was the goat. Look at this.

[00:21:28]993,000 barrels average production, 14 fields in excess of 500,000 barrels per day.

[00:21:37]That's 20% of supply.

[00:21:40]There's 12 fields between 300 and 500,000 barrels per day.

[00:21:46]29 fields between 200 and 300,000 barrels a day.

[00:21:50]61 fields between 100,000 and 200,000 barrels a day, and then the other half of oil production comes from 4,000 plus other fields. It's all these small little fields that are making up about half of production.

[00:22:08]These guys over here, these are all getting super old and they're all rolling over.

[00:22:13]This here is what's holding us up are these small little fields.

[00:22:17]What I'm saying is when these start to decline rapidly, I don't know if this is going to make up the difference.

[00:22:27]Got energy. This is the energy sector and yeah, this is just another ratio chart and I just like staring at ratio charts all day.

[00:22:35]Uh this is a bottom in 2020 and another bottom here in 2026, 25. And we're heading higher. Looks good.

[00:22:42]It's good to go way, way higher.

[00:22:46]It says, "Are you actually kidding me?"

[00:22:48]It says, "Oil's down 6% oil market at tank bottoms in Asia and Europe isn't far behind." warns Carlyle's Jeff Curry.

[00:22:57]Guys, you don't don't let the market tape don't let the tape fool you.

[00:23:03]Fundamentally, we're good. The straightest shot, we're eating through inventories.

[00:23:08]Let them play games.

[00:23:10]Play your game, get the cheap assets, let it go.

[00:23:16]Don't worry about it.

[00:23:18]Josh says, "If there's no deal and the Strait of Hormuz is closed, why is oil down 4, 5, 6%?"

[00:23:25]Don't worry about it, guys. Let them do their games. Let them do their games.

[00:23:30]Buy cheap assets.

[00:23:32]Been saying for a decade that the inflationary '70s will repeat and most probably be dwarfed hugely.

[00:23:39]And the 43-year pattern has now broken out as expected and is now backtesting.

[00:23:45]Gold is a safe haven and copper is an industrial metal that usually does well in good economic conditions, Dr. Copper.

[00:23:54]This chart below means roughly stagflation times are coming and that gold will soar further.

[00:24:00]Posted the chart 4 years ago and I'm not going to read through all that, but this is the chart, gold versus copper.

[00:24:06]In his opinion, he thinks that this is going to go with the inflationary '70s will be and that gold's going to massively outperform copper and this is a shoulder-head-shoulder.

[00:24:18]Is he right? He could be.

[00:24:21]He could be.

[00:24:23]And and and could I be wrong with copper doing something?

[00:24:27]I could be wrong.

[00:24:28]Now, his case is that the inflationary '70s is going to repeat into the inflationary 2020s.

[00:24:37]My stance is I think copper could do very well.

[00:24:44]Um I don't know if gold's going to outperform.

[00:24:48]Uh and I think copper could do very well because I think we have a major energy crisis and all solutions are electrical based, it seems like.

[00:24:58]So, we're going to need a whole bunch of copper.

[00:25:01]I know there's massive deficits in copper. So, rather than taking a strong stance and saying, well, I'm going to be right. I'm only going to bet on copper.

[00:25:09]Or saying that no, gold's going to outperform. I'm only going to bet on gold.

[00:25:14]What I'm going to do is I'm going to bet on both.

[00:25:18]Andy, what do you mean? That the the ratio could suggest that copper could go up. And then the other ratio, depending on how you draw it, so could suggest that gold outperforms.

[00:25:29]Well, uh I am going to take the stance uh that maybe I take the best few companies in the world of copper producers.

[00:25:39]And then maybe I take the world's best few companies that are gold producers and play both.

[00:25:47]Why not?

[00:25:49]If the asymmetry is that big, all I need is some money and some exposure to it.

[00:25:54]That's all I care about. I don't need to guess which one's right.

[00:25:59]So, there are times where I may overweight what I think is going to be the potential outcome, but I hedge myself if I am wrong.

[00:26:11]That simple.

[00:26:15]Bur Burman says, "I don't know how many times I've posted the same thing.

[00:26:19]Venezuelan oil is crappy tar. It's not the right stuff. Got it? We've got a bunch of morons are going around Twitter saying, well, we could just increase Venezuelan oil.

[00:26:34]It doesn't work that way.

[00:26:37]I mean, damn!"

[00:26:39]>> [laughter] >> Says, "Not all oil is the same. Middle Eastern oil sits in the sweet spot. Low sulfur, and Middle East or US offshore, this is all the good stuff."

[00:26:53]Says Middle Eastern oil sits in the sweet spot. US crude is not. It's too light.

[00:26:58]And the reason they like this up here, which is light and sour, is because they can refine it in a bunch of different things.

[00:27:06]These guys, like Venezuela's sour heavy, and Canada, you can't do as much with it.

[00:27:13]It's more it's more constrained in what you can make from it. Same with light oil.

[00:27:21]Now, it's good to have all of these, but this is the sweet spot.

[00:27:26]This is where you want the oil from because you can make a wide variety of stuff from it.

[00:27:31]That's all people are saying, and high sulfur sour equals more emissions and refining cost. The sweet spot is low sulfur and good API, which is the thickness.

[00:27:45]Easier, cleaner, more valuable.

[00:27:47]And out of the sweet spot equals more refining effort, lower margins.

[00:27:52]It's all about refining, what you can make from it easily.

[00:27:58]And that's all I've got for today. So, that's where we're going to end it, guys. Give me a thumbs up for the content. Subscribe to the channel.

[00:28:02]Subscribe to the website, if you like.

[00:28:04]Special on 500 year in the coupon codes.

[00:28:07]Uh and check for the midweek update uh that I'll be releasing here um tonight.

[00:28:12]All right, guys. That's all I've got for today. Catch you next time. See you.