TSLA Unusual Options Flow: Inside the $3,000,000 Bet

Added: 2026-05-22

[00:00:00]A lot of you have been asking me to do an update on Tesla. And so, in this video, we're going to talk about my current outlook, what exactly needs to happen in order for me to get into this position, and I want to cover a very unusual option order that actually came through today. I'm going to break down what makes the order unusual, what this means for the stock, and what this means for me going forward. Now, the first thing that I want to say is that so many people are focusing on Tesla, and that's great. a long-term investor, take these videos with a grain of salt. You have your own due diligence. You have your own fundamental reason that you're investing in it. I am a trader, right? I am not just focusing on Tesla. I've got 60 other names that I'm constantly trading at one time, and I'm not just focusing on this, right? Like, I'm focusing on a lot of other ones.

[00:00:49]Enphase, this thing is up massively.

[00:00:51]We've been killing it here. Poet, we've been absolutely killing it. There's a ton of other names. I'm not tied or attached to Tesla, which is why I haven't been focusing on it each and every single day. If it's inside of our bull cycle, then I will trade it. I will cover it, and I will do that every day.

[00:01:07]If not, then these updates are probably going to be every other week until we get back into a bull cycle. The first thing that I want to cover is this unusual options activity that hit the tape today. I alerted my private Discord community about this, and I also posted these on X because I think that it is important. Now, I want to start by saying that just because there's unusual options flow, does not mean that the stock has to move. I have watched whales lose so much money in the past, right?

[00:01:37]Institutions are wrong the same way that we are wrong. It happens. So, I'll never blindly take a position just because there's unusual buying pressure behind it. What I'll normally do is look at the unusual buying pressure, overlay both my long-term and my short-term models. If those are meeting criteria, then I'll take the trade. If we look at this flow on Tesla, however, there's something that's very unusual about this flow.

[00:02:02]Now, what I teach and train my students about is that there's basically three important aspects of an unusual order.

[00:02:08]Those three aspects is time, size, and urgency. If we're going to take a position or if we're going to look at a position, we need to make sure that there is size, not $20,000 worth of calls, but real money coming through.

[00:02:23]And top of that, we need to make sure that there's time, so we need to make sure that these contracts don't expire within a day or two. We're looking to swing trade these positions. And then we need to see urgency. So, urgency is going to mean that there's a sweep. This means that there is one order across one exchange that's hitting. And more importantly, we need to make sure that there is an underscore A or underscore AA tag. This is the major thing that, in my opinion, makes or breaks an order flow. There are so many different types of order flow companies that are trying to sell their services that they'll just post whatever the hell comes to mind in order to generate some engagement in hopes that people buy it. These two letters right here at the end of details literally make or break a flow for me.

[00:03:07]When you see underscore AA, it means that they bought above the ask. They paid the absolute worst price known to man. So, this individual bought $3.5 million, I'm sorry, $3.15 million worth of call options. They bought them above the ask, the worst price known to man possible, and they did it in one order.

[00:03:27]So, this is very unusual because normally they will come through and they will pepper their positions. If you were going to build a $3 million order, would you look to just buy it all at once?

[00:03:37]Would you pay the worst price possible?

[00:03:39]No, in most cases you would look to separate the orders, you would look to average down, you'd look to start a position. Unless you potentially knew something, you wouldn't act this way.

[00:03:49]Now, a lot of people could say, "Oh, it's a hedge against the position.

[00:03:53]Maybe, but this isn't somebody selling covered calls. This person bought call options. Bought them above the ask. Now, if we look at this, I want you to truly understand from an option standpoint how unusual this is. The open interest, which is right here, is about 1,400.

[00:04:09]This means that at open of today's session, 1,400 call options were being held. I want you to also notice that the volume today is 18,922.

[00:04:19]That is 18 times the amount of calls that were bought versus this open interest. Now, if we go back, you will see that 10,000 of the 18,000 was this whale. So, that means that the other 8,900 could be the whale, or realistically, it's probably retail investors who are trying to piggyback off the back of that whale flow. But, this is very unusual because you can see open interest very low every single day.

[00:04:48]Price of this contract has literally got cut in like half in the past month, and yet they're loading up today. So, I don't take a trade just based off of this information. This is definitely unusual. The next thing that I look to do is see if the stock is currently in a bull cycle, and if my short-term criteria is being met. As of right now, neither of them are, right? In order to tell if a stock is in a bull cycle, there's basically two things that need to happen. First and foremost, monthly buying pressure on the BX trend needs to be present. It's showing that right now, which is a good sign, but we need to close the month of May with light red on the BX. When that happens, normally the stock will go into rally mode. The second thing that needs to happen is the trend needs to be bullish. Right now, this 33 fair value band is currently red. So, there's still a chance that the short-term trend rejects between 440, 460, and makes one more move down. Now, of course, I'm not taking a trade based off of this. I I completely flat on Tesla. I'm sitting out. But, if I was in Tesla right now, this here is a good sign. So, as far as I'm considered, I'm going to continue to sit out of Tesla.

[00:05:57]There is no reason at this point, in my opinion, to be long. If my bull cycle criteria is met, then I'll look to get in. If that means that I'm paying 440, 450, 460, so be it. It's not the end of the world. The other thing is that I can just skip the trade. There are hundreds of other positions that I could potentially take. I don't need to trade Tesla as my only setup. Even right now, it would be about one out of 40 to 50 positions in my fund. So, as of right now, I'm still sitting out of Tesla. I mean to see the trend flip back to bullish. This is looking good for now.

[00:06:30]Short-term calls looking good as well.

[00:06:33]My expectation here would be that price is probably going to fill the upside gap in the next week or two. The whale is probably expecting a move back up to 460. And from there, we need to see if this weekly BX, I'm sorry, this weekly fair value band can flip back to green.