Why the Market Just Snapped Back

[00:00:00]Welcome back to the Rebels Edge. Today, Pete Nagarian and I are going to break down for you exactly why the market keeps doing this up and down and up and down. And a little bit of sports, the VIX, and of course, some prediction markets. And uh one of the predictions that Pete made about where a certain LFlop might be going [laughter] today's Rebels Edge [music] Well, folks, uh I guess just like a heartbeat, the market goes up, the market goes down. It doesn't matter if uh we're going to be bombing the crap out of Iran or if we've got a truce. It just goes up, it goes down, it goes up, it goes down. But, uh, chip stocks, uh, making a big comeback today, Pete, because >> wow, Korea was down hard. Uh, Japan was down 4% yesterday. Guess what? Japan's up 4% today.

[00:01:07]>> It's not just us here in this country, it's all over the world. So, >> yeah.

[00:01:13]>> Anyway, let's dive into that macro then, Pete. Uh, basically, Asia and the Nikkay driven higher today. Also, the UK, the United Kingdom, their unemployment data uh released today was better than expected. And for that reason, a little optimism even over in Europe. What do you got, Pete?

[00:01:34]>> Yeah, you know, it's interesting, John, because coming into today, you're sitting there probably thinking like, uh, well, we've got tariffs are kind of back. We've got escalation of the war, you know, and all that type of thing.

[00:01:47]And yet we do have that news with uh with what's going on with semiconductors. And boy, that just seems to be, you know, bringing the market right back to where it uh where where we'd like to see it, which is probably up. Um and it's been pretty amazing. I mean, up, you know, one and a quarter% for the NASDAQ, John, and it's led by, you know, some of those biggest names, of course. Of course. So, um it's interesting. And and I think that it's also interesting just to see a little bit more of um and we're going to talk a little bit more in depth about this, but as far as Bitcoin's concerned, it's actually starting to show a little bit of life and it's uh you know that tells me that people are willing to have a little bit more risk and and that's that's I think something that's very good.

[00:02:33]>> Yeah. Well, what's it doing to volatility, Pete?

[00:02:36]>> [laughter] >> Usually we'd see volatility sort of ebbing into something like this, right?

[00:02:42]>> It's interesting to see what the VIX is doing, John. It's it's actually getting closer and closer to 17. I mean, it's it started right around 18, we'll call it, and then just started dropping and dropping and dropping and here we are a lot closer to 17. Um, and we're down about 78%. So, interesting to see how that, you know, is playing out right now. But um if you do look and you know we always do but you do look and you see what the S&P is doing today you say uh well it's up almost 1% and uh here we are at 17. So it seems to be u reacting about the way that you'd almost expect.

[00:03:19]It's about a 1% move expectation and it's damn near there now.

[00:03:24]Well, then let's take something maybe from your ballet wick, Pete. Uh biotech and uh biomed and all that kind of stuff is something that Pete's much more of an expert on than I am. But Danaher today uh they do diagnostics for uh health care and so forth. But they uh reported second quarter results, Pete uh 870 million. It's a 60% increase year-over-year. So, the stock's got to be jumping, right, Pete? [laughter] >> Of course. I mean, you know, you crush it on the earnings, which they did. I mean, a monstrous number. 194. They're looking for 184. The earnings up, like you just mentioned, 60% year-over-year.

[00:04:08]But, aha, [laughter] the problem is there's a little bit of a disappointment about what Q3 looks like right now. And and so the immediate reaction was uh and I'm sure there early on, right out of the gate, people saw that number and they're like, "All right, I'm buying this thing." Well, unfortunately, they got hoodwinkedked into something because the next thing you know, you find out they disappointed on the Q3 guidance that they've got, the core revenue growth was not as good as expected either. And so, for those reasons, you take a look at that stock and I mean, the the chart says it all. down 25% year-to date, down 15% today. So, not so good for Danaher. And it's all because of the fact that despite the crushing numbers that they put out there, that guidance is terrible. John, yeah, you're never going to get a a good move out of uh weak guidance because everything else is backwards looking. How did you do and did you come in just above the expected uh revenue or sales number? And then were you able to drop enough of it to the bottom line? That's all backwards looking. The forward-looking part is like Pete said, what are the expectations? And in the case of Danaher, it was a $21 stock last night, Pete, and it was 168 on the lows today.

[00:05:27]So >> pretty ugly. Pretty ugly. Well, and then we'll flip right over to the good side, which you know is right up in Minnesota's uh area. Pete 3M uh strong second quarter results. Uh and just the opposite of uh weak guidance, they actually gave some interesting guidance, as Pete would say, interesting guidance because revenue did hit six half billion dollars for what they earned in the past quarter. But now going forward, um, their EPS guidance, Pete, was uh, up not substantially, but it was certainly up several percent from what they previously guided. And that's what's driving the stock today.

[00:06:13]>> Yeah, that that that earnings guide that they gave out, John, it was it was above and that's kind of what you're looking for, of course, is, you know, where are they at? If they were flat, we'd just say, well, then then, yeah, let's look at the earnings themselves. But we look at the earnings and then we we move on to the next as fast as we can. And they did have some great margins that they put on, John. The stock is very near the 52- week highs. So, uh, being up 8 n% today is pretty impressive. I think 3M has been able to turn themselves around in in a good way, and it's it's starting to show that much more. But, um, you like you said, Q2, those earnings, they crushed that, too. you know, that they beat on the revenue, they beat on the earnings, and then when you actually can pull out and raise that that fullear guidance, um that's going to be money in your pocket. And I think that's uh that's a great sign for for 3M as of right now. Looks pretty great. Um a little bit different move than we're seeing in Dana here just a second ago.

[00:07:13]>> Yeah. Well, uh 3M sharply higher.

[00:07:17]Another one sharply higher. Uh, which I'm kind of kicking myself on, Pete, because uh I I wanted to dive into Coinbase andor Riot, but I wasn't getting enough signals. Uh, it was just kind of muddied. But, uh, Coinbase, uh, definitely moving higher. Uh, Bitcoin, of course, uh, actually found some footing last week after just getting the crap kicked out of it time and time again and then breaking through 60 and all the rest, 60,000 per USD. Um, but then as it makes a comeback, Circle and Hood and Micro Strategy and Coinbase all should be catching some wind in their sales. And it turns out Coinbase said, "Yes, we are."

[00:08:02]>> Yep, they they sure did, John. And up 12% today. Not such a bad move to the upside. And you know, when you when you take a look at this and you and you and you sort of break it all down, it's a it's a very high beta play for Bitco for Coinbase to Bitcoin. And Bitcoin's at the highest levels that it's been, John, in a month and a half. So, u you know, there's there's a lot of good things kind of circling around out there right now on that front. People are willing to take a little bit more risk. Um it seems like so because of that, you know, you put that all together, Coinbase is looking pretty good today. And Coinbase is one of those stocks where you've got plenty of shorts in there. So, those shorts are getting squeezed out a little bit as well, John. So, that that's something else. But um you know just just looking at what's going on being up 12% today I would say that's a pretty solid day. They're pretty happy about that. And I'd love to see a little bit more option paper in there like you were talking about. You know you might want to lean a certain direction but boy it makes it a lot easier when we do see some of the unusual option activity in some of these things. And we just haven't seen a whole lot in co in Coinbase.

[00:09:07]>> Yeah. Uh, Coinbase has uh just like I said, Riot, you could put them in there, too. Yesterday, I Pete, I was talking about HUD 8 because not because of Bitcoin, but because of uh they signed a 15-year extension on a data center uh down in Texas. Uh so, there hasn't been that much that's been driving these stocks from the Bitcoin side, but I think maybe now that rubber band stretched a little too far to the downside. Now, it's popping back. Yeah.

[00:09:38]>> All right. Well, let's finish up with Equifax because these guys basically I think a lot of folks know they uh bas take a look at uh verification of income and things like that. Uh something I was doing yesterday as my wife was buying a new car, Pete.

[00:09:55]>> Um so when you do that, some credit bureau or somebody is going to be going through your employment and your uh income statements and all that kind of stuff. Equifax does that. But this one was a $180 stock last night, Pete. When they came out with these earnings, it fell to 150 something and it got that close to a new 52- week low. And there's probably a day in the future, Pete, where AI makes their job so much easier and they're able to, you know, sadly I'm saying, lay off a whole bunch of people because if you don't need those data scientists and all the rest in as big a numbers as you presently have them because AI is able to do the work of, you know, perhaps dozens if not hundreds of people when you're analyzing data. Uh this is something that maybe this stock will see a a big jump to the upside when they announce something like that, but they're not announcing that today, Pete.

[00:10:56]Instead, uh they were just talking about second quarter revenue, and it was not spectacular.

[00:11:02]>> No, but they also, one of the things that that stuck out for me too, John, was they they talked about the concerns they have over a hundred million dollar legal settlement. Um that that doesn't ever sound like something good, right? I mean that and you know what they also talked about their Q3 and their guidance and they missed on that. So again they did beat on their earnings. They beat by a dime or a nickel actually. Um but they you know they missed on the Q3 guidance and so yeah that thing's down what five or six% something like that. I mean it's not getting just crushed but it's definitely on the negative side and as you said a lot closer to the 52- week lows. So, they're going to have to do something to get this thing moving in the right direction again, John. But, um, yeah, uh, that settlement certainly stood out for me, and I don't know what the numbers were going into that, but, uh, the hund00 million mark just seems like it's a fairly large number. So, I think that's what's pressuring the stock for sure.

[00:12:00]>> I agree. Well, uh, I thought you'd like this one, Pete, because, um, it's a high school football player that went from no one to someone really fast. And one of the ways to do that is to do exactly what this kid did, and that is you break King Henry's uh, touchdown, single game touchdown record, which is pretty difficult, but he managed to do it. And I bet you'd never guess what state this kid plays in.

[00:12:29]Let's give it a look and listen and then see if you would have guessed it.

[00:12:32]>> Back from Florida broke Derrick Henry's single game rushing touchdown record just last season. And the craziest thing about it, he was only a sophomore.

[00:12:42]Xander Edwards is the running back for the Bull School in Jacksonville, [music] Florida, and we covered him back in August. But since then, Edwards has been doing some crazy things in this game against Baldwin. He rushed for eight touchdowns, crossing the goal line from 77 yds out all the way down to just breaking King Henry's previous single game touchdown record of seven. He ran the ball 39 times for an earthshattering 522 yards, the second most yards in a game in the history of Florida High School.

[00:13:12]>> And Xander did lead the state in both rushing yards and total touchdowns, blowing every other player. appearance on the other teams probably >> considering [laughter] his dad is a Super Bowl winning fullback. Xander was flying under the radar before last season, but now he has 36 division one offers including Georgia, Miami and the Ohio State. This high school running back from Florida.

[00:13:36]>> Yeah. Well, Pete, I mean, you I know you would have guessed one of two states, Florida or Texas. Yep.

[00:13:43]>> Um because you know the talent in those two states alone, you could stock up the whole SEC just from those two states.

[00:13:52]>> Oh yeah. [laughter] Yeah. That kid's that kid's pretty amazing. He's got good lineage obviously with his father playing in the NFL and all that kind of thing. And he just looks the role, doesn't he? I mean, when you see him, he's got the physical side of things. He looks like he's got plenty of speed. I mean, I'm I'm looking at, you know, his competition as well as him and how fast he looks out there. Uh, tough to say anything negative about the guy. I mean, and and you know what? When you break anybody, especially Derek [laughter] Derek's, it's unbelievable, right? I mean, >> yeah.

[00:14:29]>> You'd think his records were going to stand the test of time.

[00:14:32]>> Yeah. But maybe this kid's will fall the same way, you know, because the kids are getting bigger and faster. And I mean, he's a sophomore, Pete.

[00:14:41]>> Yeah.

[00:14:42]>> How many sophomores start in on a great football team? And >> the answer is zero. [laughter] >> I mean, literally on a great football team, it's almost impossible to break through. Yeah. And even, you know, with all the talent that Florida has and all that stuff, you can only imagine as a sophomore this year, uh, what kind of offers he's going to be getting. The NIL money will be coming too, Pete.

[00:15:09]>> Yeah, I think he he'll do just fine. All right, let's just jump into this one, John. It's it's about the NFL, but it's not just about the NFL. It's about FIFA and the World Cup and all the excitement around the World Cup and how everybody loved it and everything. I mean, it really it really did change the United States for quite a long time with all those games that went on and everything else. But one of the things that stands out for me is the guys in the soccer world are like, "Hey, look, it's worth the money. We want natural grass in all of these places. We need to have it. It has to be done." Blah, blah, and they did it. Well, what about the NFL?

[00:15:46]Because it has been something that's been brewing for a long time in the NFL, John. Now, there are some stadiums that have grass. There are some stadiums that have grass outside the stadium that rolls right into the stadium and all that kind of thing. Um the NFL PA has been very very they've been urging the NFL and the owners and talking to those guys about hey look we need to get on grass and I tell you what I am so with all those players. I think you would be as well John because even though turf has improved immensely and and why wouldn't it? You know over time it's gonna and it's got a little bit more pad. It's got a little of this a little of that. you can stop on a dime. That's not always a good thing. But, you know, the reality is that the players um and on every single team have have been saying for a long time, hey, uh yeah, we'd love to play on grass. And I can tell you as as a guy and I was on the radio show yesterday where I I unfortunately missed uh this show but we were talking about it John I played two games in my entire college career and I was there I red shirted a year but so five years played two games on um actual grass and they were both at Purdue because they were the only school in the Big 10 that actually had grass. So gives you a little bit of an idea and that was when it was really terrible. The turf at the Metrodome was awful. The turf at Michigan, terrible. Northwestern, maybe the worst in all the Big 10. I mean, wherever you went, everybody was on turf. And there's a huge push. 92% of players want grass to be what they play on. So, what say you on this whole thing? I mean, you know, it seems like something when you look at how much money the NFL makes, you know, the TV money and all the other things. Um, I think they they could probably afford to maybe figure out a way if they were able to do it for this whole cup thing, John.

[00:17:34]I don't know why they can't have grass for these players, uh, just to maybe extend some of their careers as well.

[00:17:42]>> Well, um, higher injuries, uh, of course, it's not just a comfort thing like Pete said. It's higher injuries. I mean, I I looked at some of the data when you s shot me this, Pete, and it's 28% higher overall uh injury rates on turf, 32% more for knees alone on turf, 69% more for foot and ankle. And some of you might think, well, you know, foot, what is that or whatever. Well, turf toe is a real thing. And if you have a bad case of turf toe, folks, it can keep you out of the game for a long time because you can no longer get the same push off of that foot. Um, it's just, you know, it's it's a debilitating injury. Um, obviously ankles, we've seen a lot of that. Look at Scatabo out in uh uh the New York Giants and so forth. And all those guy, all of these guys are playing on turf. You know, there's almost zero grass out there. Uh, but the places that do have it, shoot, you might even see some of those places, Pete, almost be like a a tax haven where the players want to play someplace where at least half of their games are on grass instead of turf.

[00:18:58]>> Uh, so it could be a draw as well. It'll be interesting to see where this goes from here. Yeah, I think that they're getting the attention of the the higherups in the NFL now because of what happened with FIFA and everything and in the opportunities that Hey, man, it and it's worth the cost. It really is. I mean, you know, they've got players that are getting hurt that they're paying money that are just sitting on the sidelines and can't play because, you know, the turf is just that reactive and can be so, you know, unbelievably bad for your body. every part of it, elbows and shoulders and necks and obviously your lower extremities as well. Not so great. How about the NBA, John? This has been really interesting and I I I know that we're on the same boat on this one, but Laflop is uh flopping around, but he doesn't want to decide where he's going to play, right? He's been doing this for quite some time. I would guess I'll take a guess that he already knew where he was gonna go when he started, [laughter] but you know because what how many changes are there really, right? I mean, you know, the off season and everything.

[00:20:02]So, he's been doing this and now it's gotten to the point where it's getting to be a headache even for uh the NBA higherup folks out there because they're trying to figure out games around, you know, Thanksgiving and Christmas and all that type of thing. and they're kind of waiting because they'd like to have some of those games around whatever team the guy decides to go with because he does have that name and he is a damn good basketball player. But I don't know in what section he is. I don't I don't think it's top 10. I don't think it's a lot of things, but you know, everybody has their opinion on that type of thing.

[00:20:37]What do you think about this, John? Does he does he feel to you like he's about as big a narcissist as you've ever been, you know, affiliated or watched or anything like that? Just because it's it's it's amazing to me how he's playing everybody on this thing and, you know, I'll I'll I'll decide soon. Well, you know, might be a good idea at some point, right? Well, when you look at the teams that uh he's considering Pete and that would consider him for that matter, um Miami Heat's top of the list. They're two to one on uh the prediction markets to get him. Uh roughly 47% of all the money is on Miami getting him. Uh Cleveland is number two. Uh the 76ers are number three. And then it goes all the way down to your Timberwolves, Pete.

[00:21:26]But there's only one team in that li on that list that is uh no tax state. And yes, I do understand that when players play on the road, they pay a tax based on where they're playing. I do understand. So a zero tax state doesn't mean zero tax altogether. It means zero tax for your home games. That's it. But uh uh nonetheless, that does save you some money. Uh, you know, when I look at those cities too on that list, Pete, you know, LeBron James is a billionaire. He does uh uh production stuff with Netflix and others. Um, why would he be in Cleveland or Philly or even San Francisco or Minnesota? Why would he be in any of those places?

[00:22:14]>> No reason. Miami. Yeah, Miami is a much bigger stage for what he does and for the people he wants to talk to and do business with probably. Um, but I'd also say uh that uh yeah, like you said, Adam Silver, the uh commissioner of the NBA, um he wants to know where this guy might play. And I think it is important to sort of determine that before you know uh but on the other hand you see these guys have huge egos. Look at Aaron Rogers. Yeah. you know, he didn't want to tell anybody for the longest time either. And it's kind of sucky that they hold these teams hostage sort of because obviously any of these teams he goes to, yeah, he can sign a new contract, but in some cases it's going to keep them from being able to get other players >> because of the size of his contract likely. So yeah, I think he should just, you know, tell him where he's going.

[00:23:13]It's gonna be Miami and just get it done. That's what I think.

[00:23:17]>> Yep. It I'm with you, John. And it, you know, it' just be nice if he just got it done. I mean, just get it done. Help out the rest of the NBA so they can figure out some of the games in the future and and let it'll be all good. But, uh, you know what? He he does like to be the center stage as long as he can.

[00:23:34][laughter] >> Yeah. Does this mean Bronnie's going with him, Pete? [laughter] >> That I don't know. I DON'T NOT SO GOOD so far.

[00:23:46]>> No. Well, thanks for joining us, folks.

[00:23:48]We appreciate it. Um, we will be back again tomorrow at 100 pm Eastern time.

[00:23:54]We hope you uh share some of the short clips as well as the uh links to YouTube and all the different sources of where you can watch the Rebels Edge. So, thanks for joining us and we'll see you tomorrow at 1.

[00:24:10]Hey. Hey. Hey.

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