The North Dallas Market Is Splitting In Two: June 2026 Monthly Market Report

[00:00:00]The housing market in the cities north of Dallas, Texas are generally speaking in a slight seller's market as of May 2026. [music] Price per square foot is down about 5% year-over-year across the region and really specifically Collin County. And for every 10 single-family homes that sold last month, nearly four came off the market without closing.

[00:00:20]All three of those facts are true at the same time, but together they can tell you something that the headline alone cannot. And this is absolutely not just a single market in Collin County. Allen homes have days on market at 16 days. Selling at 98.6 of the original asking price.

[00:00:37]Celina homes sitting on days at market of 62 days.

[00:00:41]And the typical Celina seller closed at 92.9 cents of the original list price dollar.

[00:00:48]Same region, same month, two completely different realities depending on which city you are in. I'm Phil Martin of the Living North of Dallas, Texas a YouTube channel and I can tell you that the gap between the area wide headline you see in the news and the clickbait [music] and the city level reality is the widest it's been in about several years. But what you are about to see is not a story about a market going up or a market going down. It's simply a story about two markets living inside the same zip code. And which one you are in could change everything about the decisions you have to make. So bear with me for a second. I want to give you the caution flag first and then we're going to go city by city. So here are the area wide numbers for May we're reported here in June of course. Median combined days on market for Collin County we're coming in right at about 32, which is almost a 6% decrease year-on-year. So our market velocity has picked up a bit. Sale to original asking price is coming in at 96.7.

[00:01:48]That's about 0.2 points better year-on-year. So not only are we selling homes faster, we're selling them for slightly just a little bit more. And here you can also see that for every 10 sold, four homes simply do not sell.

[00:02:03]They just come off the market, expire, withdrawn, canceled, and they just don't close. Price per square foot, May 2025 to May 2026, uh year-on-year, is a decrease of 2.2%.

[00:02:16]You know, it's it's not dramatic, uh but it is real, and it does not show up evenly across the map. So, again, this is the general Collin County statistics at large. But if we go back to that number of four come off the market for every 10 that are sold, that that is one statistic that the vast majority of market reports will skip entirely. But that number does tell you something about the seller's market headline, right? That the headline itself just can't tell you. There are sellers who are pricing into a market that is not meeting them at the original price they've set. [music] And and depending on on which city you you are in, that dynamic is either barely visible, or that dynamic of how many come off the market per 10 is going to be front and center. And if you'd like to dig in and learn more about the uh cities north of Dallas, Texas, grab the uh best suburb guide right down below in the link. And stay with me here because the data this month is the story. So, let me describe the chart overall, and we'll dig into it cuz there's a number of different dynamics and statistics that are at play here. The bar represents, along here on the x-axis, the number of days, combined days it took for [music] the uh the average home to get a contract for sale.

[00:03:34]So, you can see, in the green, this is where the market's moving pretty quick.

[00:03:37]In the gray, it's kind of where we're in the middle ground. And then there's this whole area of orange bars where it's a completely different market. And and that's where we come up with this this idea that the area is really split into two different poles.

[00:03:53]>> [music] >> Uh the green versus the orange and people in the middle are just kind of riding just that, riding the middle. Uh you can also see that we're also going to talk about the sales uh to list price ratio, how many cents or uh per dollar that uh the the seller got for what they asked originally for the house. And then lastly, off market. This is the this is the failure or we call the failure rate.

[00:04:17]How many homes came off the market per 10 and didn't [music] sell? So, you can see Allen, 16 days combined days on market, sellers received uh 98.6 of the original asking price, the highest of any city in the data set.

[00:04:30]And in Allen, for every 10 homes that sold, 3.1 came off without closing. That right here is the cleanest and most competitive market uh kind of in our area. Now, here's where that number surprised me on the price side. Price per square foot in Allen is down 2.2% year-over-year, right at that area-wide figure.

[00:04:51]But look at what buyers are still doing.

[00:04:53]They're paying 98.6 [music] cents on the original dollar and getting under contract in 2 weeks. The price adjusted modestly, the competition did not leave, and that tells you something real about what Allen ISD demand is doing to absorption in this city cuz that is most likely the only variable I see that would cause the velocity here to be high and the the the sales price to list price to be high and the dropout to be low. A lot of people uh like to live in Allen because of that school district and it has high demand. So, moving on to Plano, you can see Plano is coming in uh at 19 days combined on market, 98.1% uh sales price to list price, that's pretty good, and only three >> [music] >> um um houses go off market for every 10 that are sold. Essentially, Plano is is flat because because a 0.2% year-over-year price adjustment on square dollars per square foot, Uh but the direction matters.

[00:05:51]In 8 months of straight data, October through May, and Plano's price per square foot has moved from 214 to 221 and then back.

[00:06:00]Almost no movement in either direction.

[00:06:02]Speed and price stability all at the same time in Plano. Moving into McKinney, we're looking at 30 days combined on market before contracting, 96.7 of original asking price off market 3.2, and the price per square foot 0.6 year-over-year increase. And McKinney's holding its value. It's also moving. Out of every major city in this data set, McKinney has the steadiest price trajectory across the last 8 months of data. Now, that doesn't happen by accident, but that is still only half the picture because what sits on the other side of this split is a different story altogether. And that can best be displayed [music] by dropping down and looking at the Prosper statistics. Of course, we're at 32 combined days on market before being contracted. Price per square foot on the May to May year-on-year comparison is down only 2.6% closer to the area-wide number than you might expect from the Prosper brand. But here's what makes Prosper very different and on the other side of that split. For every 10 Prosper homes that sell, right, there are 7.8 that come off the market and just simply don't close. They expire. They get canceled. They get withdrawn. 7.8 per 10.

[00:07:23]Think about what that means. In Allen, 3.1 listings come off the market for every 10 that sell. In Prosper, it's 7.8.

[00:07:31]And that is not a price story. That is a pricing discipline story. Sellers in Prosper who came in at the right number sold in 32 days at 95.5% on the dollar list price to sell price, but sellers who came in above the market, they jumped jumped in and became part of that 7.8 [music] of the on again, off again crowd because they just were too aggressive on the pricing.

[00:07:55]>> [music] >> And the typical Prosper seller, when all those transactions are combined, received 95.5% of their original ask price, right? But most of the time when people go on and off and on and off the market and you know, buyers can see that, they usually come in lower than what they would have come in at if they would have just offered it at a at a more reasonable buyer-friendly price to begin with. And to see that carries a real premium brand like Prosper, Prosper Independent School District makes a difference. Just like in Allen, it makes a difference in Prosper because in within that ISD, there are many master-planned communities from Light Farms, Windsong Ranch, Mustang Lakes. Uh the margin of overpricing though, is smaller than most sellers expect right now. [music] The brand gets you the showing, but guys, it's the price that gets you the closing.

[00:08:43]>> [music] >> So, you can't go in too high. Jumping back to the big chart, you can see Celina coming in at 62 days for uh before we get a a contract. 62 days on the market, that's the the median. The average is 88, [music] even higher. And there are homes in that data sitting 400-plus days combined uh before they closed. There's a lot of new construction mixed in here in Celina as well. So, the numbers are kind of inflated because of that, but the signature of heavy re-listing cannot be denied. And then, price per square foot down 5.7% year-over-year. Guys, that's one of the steepest real declines of any major city in this data set.

[00:09:24]So, you know, Celina sitting there at at this uh kind of middle of the road um off-market listings, but that uh sales price per list price, it's it's fairly depressed. [music] And and that's you can't deny that part.

[00:09:38]You know, And what does that mean? Well, for example, a $500,000 original list price in Salina, the typical seller closed at $464,500.

[00:09:47]If they came in at that 92.9, that's $35,500 that you that you lose. And that's a pretty expensive conversation. Even before you count the carrying cost on the 62 days combined or the 88 average, right?

[00:10:02]So, if you look at it, you can clearly see we've we definitely have a split. We have this section moving fast, low fallout of of of the houses that don't sell. Here we've got the middle, and then we've got the far side where the numbers just tell a very different story. A split in the frame.

[00:10:23]And let's just compare directly a city here to a city in the orange to a city in the green.

[00:10:28]You can really see the differences here with Allen combined days on market 16.

[00:10:32]You know, 98.6 of sale to original ask, 3.1 off market for every 10 sold, and a 2.2 year-on-year price decrease. Right? This is a real seller's market here.

[00:10:45]Can't be denied. Price adjusted composite competition held.

[00:10:49]But then we compare to Prosper. Double days [music] on market, 32. Sale to original ask, 95.8.

[00:10:57]But here is the real failure rate. We're talking about in Prosper, 7.8 off market per 10 sold. [music] Price per square foot down 2.6.

[00:11:07]You know, fairly comparable to your Allen market, but this right here is really is is really the driving force behind why this number's twice as much and why this number is lower, much lower than over here. This This represents tens of thousands of dollars when you get into the price point that we're talking about in these cities. Pricing discipline is the deciding variable. So, how How important is it to listen to the data?

[00:11:36]It is paramount or it will cost. Because frankly, we're talking about the same region, same month, same seller's market headline.

[00:11:43]Headlines are all the same. Price per square foot stories actually similar.

[00:11:47]But uh obviously the transaction on on these two areas come come out for the most part very different from each other. We see this constantly with families we work with. They look at the area-wide seller's market headline and assume it applies to every city on their short list. The city you're targeting is doing more work than any area-wide number gives it credit for. I mean, it's the city that does the work. And if you want to learn more about the cities north of Dallas, Texas, grab the best suburb guide right down below or just call. All the information on how to get that and how to call us in the description below.

[00:12:21]And the split does not stop at cities.

[00:12:22]>> [music] >> It even runs through the price stack.

[00:12:25]Course, under 400,000, uh we have a dropout of 3.1.

[00:12:30]And 39 days and we have 96%.

[00:12:34]Uh sales price to list price. As we go to 400, notice our days uh our off-market failures start to climb 3.9.

[00:12:41]We go to 6 to 800, 4.3. Over here, our days on market aren't too different and and we're not too different here on our uh sale price to list price either.

[00:12:51]But you can see green and we've got a yellow here in the middle and two pink [music] here on the bottom. This is our split. It It It's running through the price points regardless of city. Down here, we're talking competitive.

[00:13:05]Then you've got it's building up here in the middle. And as we move down to 1.2 million to 2 million, we can see the failure rate spikes 6.9 to 7.2. And we get a good reduction, especially on our sales price to list price in the highest range right here. This is what we call the watch it zone.

[00:13:24]So, >> [music] >> it's just not the city. You also have to be uh aware that these splits are going to run through your price points as well.

[00:13:33]So, whether you're a a move-up family deciding which city to target, a seller trying to understand where you're actually stand relative to what you originally expected, or you're relocating here from out of state or even out of the country. But, one thing's for sure, when you're when you're working through all these details, you want to be in an area where you get the best value, it fits your budget, it fits your lifestyle, and it creates opportunities for your family, cuz that's really what it's all about. And the city that you live in and the price point >> [music] >> or where you've got to watch out for those gaps, or you may be landing in a in a home that is not going to give you the experience >> [music] >> that you are looking for. Now, speaking of sellers, 44% of sellers north of Dallas, Texas, were actively slashing their prices last month. And that's not a sentiment, it's a fact. And that is the May data for cities north of the Dallas, Texas [music] area. To learn more about those cities, grab the best suburb guide or call. It's all in the description down below. And if you're curious how the April numbers got us to the May numbers, watch why 44% of all listings took a price reduction in May 2026 coming up in that May monthly market report. This is Phil Martin. [music] Take care.