How many packs of baseball cards do you need to open to get a complete set?

Added: 2026-05-12

[00:00:00]How many packs do you need to open before you have a complete set once and for all? Let's find out.

[00:00:08][music] [music] I've always wanted to do this. I've long suspected shenanigans on behalf of the card companies. Purposefully vague collation. some cards that seem to appear at frequencies far greater than the other cards and some cards that just seem scarce in comparison. To keep this experiment affordable, I'm going to try it first with 1988 Don Rush baseball cards as they are about the cheapest wax out there. But the cards themselves aren't the point. It's how the cards are organized in the packs that interest me.

[00:00:49]I've got a list of all 660 card numbers plus the 26 bonus cards totaling 686 cards in the complete set. With this list, I'll track the frequency of each card as they come, and we'll be able to watch the coalation patterns in real time, if there are any coalation patterns. I've got a new box where I'll put the set cards. I've got a few sleeves for any Hall of Fame cards that look like a 10 contender. And I've got cameras set up so you can see that there's no funny business going on with the rip. If you're feeling bold, put your prediction in the comments. How many packs do I need to open before I get a complete set?

[00:01:28]Okay, here we go. Opening packs until I have a complete set. Pack one.

[00:01:35]For each pack, I'll quickly inspect the fronts and count to ensure that there are 15 cards in each pack. Then I'll turn them over and document the numbers on the sheet. To nobody's surprise, the first pack had 15 cards with no duplicates. Mark down the numbers. And here in my notebook, I'm tracking each pack as I rip them, recording the pack number, how many new cards, and how many duplicates [music] were in each pack, and noting any oddities that occur along the way. All seems tidy with the first pack. Onto the second pack, [music] where again, I got 15 needed cards with no duplicates. I also pulled the Roberto Alamar rookie, one of two Hall of Fame rookies in this set, the other being Tom Glavin. I'll sleeve up the Alamar, the first of many I would expect. Record the numbers in the box and off we go. Pack three, no duplicates, and we're cruising. Pack four, no duplicates. Pack five, no duplicates. Five packs into this project and the set is more than 10% complete. At this rate, I'll need less than 50 packs to complete the set.

[00:02:39]Five packs in though, and we can already see the collation pattern emerging. The numbers I've been pulling from the packs are clumped with a clump of cards occurring about every 50 cards. These are not random distributions. These have to be purposeful. And then I got to pack six, the first instance of a duplicate, but not just one, four duplicate cards in this pack. I'll set them aside. And now I'll start tracking how many dupes we get. So you can see that develop as well. Pack seven. And we crossed the 100 card mark. No duplicates in this pack.

[00:03:16]After the eighth pack, which had no duplicates in it either, the collation patterns became even more apparent. So much so that I decided to get a marker so you can better see them develop.

[00:03:27]After eight packs, there are only 15 lone cards that exist outside of a collated clump and 35 collated clumps with two instances already of five sequential cards and four instances of four sequential cards. I've only opened eight packs, but there are nine sequential clumps of cards of four or more. The packs in this box have a fairly clear and purposeful collation to them. This is not a random distribution.

[00:03:56]Onward. Pack nine had three duplicates.

[00:03:59]And then I got to the 10th pack. The 10th pack had nine duplicates in it, more than half the pack. And more [music] interestingly, the nine duplicates of this pack duplicated nine cards from pack two. The 10th pack out of this box was nearly identical to the [music] second pack of this box.

[00:04:17]Curious.

[00:04:19]Packs 11 through 14 were all needed cards, no duplicates, and they followed the same collation pattern that we've been watching develop. By the end of pack 14, I had multiple groups of six cards in sequence. This is not random.

[00:04:35][music] Pack 15 set a new record for duplicates with 10 of the 15 cards in the packs being dupes. [music] And this pack was an almost complete replica of pack three. Packs 16, [music] 17, and 18 were all fresh cards, no dupes. It felt good to be so efficiently moving through the checklist. [music] Pack 19 set a new duplicates record as there were 12 dupes in it and only three needed [music] cards. Packs 20, 21, and 22 were smooth sailing and all needed cards with no dupes. But then pack 23 set a new duplicate record with [music] 13 of the 15 cards being duplicates. And pack 23 was a nearly identical pack to pack 13. Packs 24, 25, and 26 went by with no duplicates. And then pack 27 had nine duplicates.

[00:05:28]The six cards I got from pack 27 pushed the total accumulated to 345 out of 686 [music] cards. We have crossed the halfway mark. 27 packs opened to get half the set and we're still working from [music] the same box. I'll leave the coalation up for a second so you can see the pattern as I make a [music] few points about the process so far. I hope you can clearly see the coalation as it's happening. There are a few lone cards, yes, but most of the cards pulled so far have been pulled in fairly regular sequence, creating groups of sequence cards throughout the checklist.

[00:06:04]Duplicates first appeared in the sixth pack, but after that the duplicates appeared regularly just about every fourth pack. And every fourth pack that contained duplicates contained increasingly more [music] so. Pack 10 had nine duplicates. Pack 15 had 10 duplicates. Pack 19 had 12 duplicates.

[00:06:22]Pack 23 had 13 duplicates.

[00:06:26]It seems we are getting close to our first all duplicate pack. At the halfway point to set completion, we've opened 27 packs for a total of 405 cards, 60 of which were dupes. That is a duplicate rate of 14%. Although, I predict this number to climb bigly as this experiment progresses. Back at it, packs 28 and 29 and 30 were all good packs. Pack 31 had 12 duplicates, but it also had another Roberto Alamar rookie.

[00:06:56]That's the second appearance of this card. [music] We'll put Roberto here in a sleeve, even though it is severely offc center. Packs 32, 33, and 34 only saw three more duplicates. [music] But pack 35 had 13 duplicates and only two good cards. [music] And we come to the end of the first box with the 36th [music] pack, which had 11 good cards and four dupes. Now I've opened a full box, 36 packs of 15 [music] cards totaling 540 cards. The set is 686 cards. [music] So it was impossible to finish the set in a single wax box. After a [music] full box, I've collected 448 cards. Of the 686 needed, or 65% of the set of the 540 [music] cards in the box, 92 were duplicates, totaling 17%. Before I move on to the second box, I want to put price into perspective. [music] 1988 Donous wax packs sold for 39 cents a piece back in 1988. In 1988 money, I just opened $144 plus tax [music] worth of wax packs to get 65% of the set. In 1988, you could buy a complete 660 card factory set sealed for 1999.

[00:08:15]It seems even back then, buying and opening packs wasn't a very cost-effective way of building the collection.

[00:08:23]Have a look at the list. [music] The coalation pattern continues with large groups of sequenced cards and large gaps of no [music] cards. This is not a random coalation. Whatever they're doing, they were doing it on purpose.

[00:08:37]Moving on to the second wax box, pack number 37. And all these looked familiar. Well, crap. The first pack of the second box is all duplicates. And what's more is seven of those duplicates are double duplicates. We've now seen seven cards three times before we've seen 238 cards even once.

[00:09:01]Pack 38 had nine good cards and six [music] duplicates. Okay, back on track.

[00:09:07]But pack 39 was all dupes.

[00:09:11]This was the fifth pack in a row now containing duplicates. So, I looked back at my pack list and saw that pack 34 was the last pack that did not contain any duplicates at all. Little did I know that it was the last pack not to contain any dupes. Pack 40 again was all duplicates, and I have to admit, I was getting concerned. The duplication rate was up to 23% now. Pack 41 calmed me down a little bit as it had seven good cards and eight dupes. But pack 42, 13 duplicates. Pack 43, all duplicates.

[00:09:46]Pack 44, all but one duplicates. Pack 45, 10 [music] duplicates. And the third appearance of the Alamar rookie. Pack 45 also gave us our first quadruple it in Joseé Oendo. This is the fourth appearance of this card. [music] one for the set and three extras. Pack 46. All duplicates. This box is not going well.

[00:10:12]And I have other boxes. So I paused here on the second box and went to the third box. Maybe the packs will be collated differently [music] there.

[00:10:22]So pack one from box three. Pack 47 overall was all duplicates. Well crap.

[00:10:30]Things are not going so well.

[00:10:35]Pack 48 pulled me back to reality as Pack 48 only had three duplicates and 12 very [music] needed cards for the set.

[00:10:43]These cards followed the same collation pattern as box one, adding one card to each established collated grouping. Pack 49 is where things started [music] to get weird. It had 14 duplicates and only one needed card. But more curiously, the [music] cards in the pack were in perfect sequenced order. card number 192 to 206 with one Diamond Kings card inserted where card 193 would have gone.

[00:11:10]Pack 50 got me nine cards closer to a complete set. But the nine cards I needed, and the ones that fit the collation scheme already happening were grouped together and turned in the opposite direction [music] of the duplicate cards, which were also grouped together. More curiosity.

[00:11:29]Pack 51 was all duplicates. Pack 52 crossed me over the 500 card threshold.

[00:11:37]Pack 53 was uneventful. Then [music] pack 54 mimicked what happened in pack 50. Pack 54 had five needed cards and 10 dupes. The cards I needed were grouped together and were facing the opposite direction in the pack than the 10 cards that I didn't need. What are the chances of that happening twice?

[00:11:59]By the 55th [music] pack, another pack of all duplicates, the rate of duplications had risen to 38%.

[00:12:08]Pack 57 was another fully sequenced pack, cards 208 to 221 in order. This time, no Diamond Kings, bonus card, or rated rookie inserted.

[00:12:20]By now, I had found my wax opening rhythm. This took a long time, but it was so interesting that it almost became therapeutic.

[00:12:28]Pack 61 had a mini sequence in it, cards 86 through 96, [music] and the cards not in the sequence were reversed in orientation, again showing it was deliberate.

[00:12:43]Pack 63 was another sequence, cards 537 to 546, and the three cards not part of that sequence were reversed in orientation.

[00:12:52]>> [music] >> But pack 65 wasn't. Pack 65 had 12 cards needed and only three duplicates. And wouldn't you know, the cards needed fit nicely into the established collation sequence. This was a nice reprieve as packs 66, 67, and 68 were all dupes.

[00:13:12]Pack 68 also gave me the first [music] instance of a quintuplet in Bobby Wit Senior. One card for the set and [music] four extras. There was still more than a hundred cards I hadn't seen even once.

[00:13:25]And this card I've seen five times now.

[00:13:32]I cruised into the 72nd pack, which represented two full boxes worth of packs. But remember, I switched boxes hoping to find a different collation only to not find it. At the beginning of all this, I figured I would only need or should only need about two boxes to get a complete set. I've opened 1,080 cards now, well north of the 686 cards that I'm looking for. But here I am, still 105 cards short of my goal. The duplication rate had climbed to 46%.

[00:14:04]14 of the 72 packs in the first two boxes were all duplicates.

[00:14:10]Maybe we should change up the music.

[00:14:14]There we go.

[00:14:18]With pack 73, I crossed the 100 to go mark, now needing only 96 [music] cards to complete my set.

[00:14:27]Pack 74 was [music] another fully sequenced pack, all duplicates, cards 284 to 293 [music] in order.

[00:14:39][music] Pack 78, which had eight needed cards, crossed me over the 600 card threshold of the 686 cards needed for the full set. I was starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel.

[00:14:52]Yeah, not feeling that track. How about this?

[00:15:03]After the 82nd pack, my duplication rate came [music] even at 50%.

[00:15:09]Out of the 1230 cards I had already opened, half of them were duplicates, and this number would continue to rise.

[00:15:18]>> [music] >> Pack 85 didn't provide any new cards for my set, but it did cough up a sixth Kevin Bass card.

[00:15:27]I had been opening packs so long that by pack 86, I needed to turn on the lights to keep filming. By pack 87, my total number of duplicate cards had eclipsed the total number of cards in the set, which was still 67 [music] cards short of complete.

[00:15:49]Packs 88 to 91 were a bust, but pack 92 was a very good pack [music] containing 10 needed cards and only five duplicates. This was the last instance of a pack having 10 or more needed cards in it. What was crazy here was how these 10 cards slotted so nicely into the checklist. They weren't a group, but the cards were continuation of the groups that had been clearly accumulating throughout the process.

[00:16:16]Packs 93 through 95 were a [music] bust.

[00:16:20]Pack 96 contained eight needed cards and was the last pack to have more than 50% needed cards in it. Each pack after this became less and less useful.

[00:16:31]And here we are at the 100th pack. 1,500 total cards. I found 652 of 686 cards needed and blown through 848 duplicates.

[00:16:44]The duplication rate had climbed [music] to 56%.

[00:16:48]34 cards to go, but 100 packs in seemed a good spot [music] to take a break. It was getting late, and never did I think that this project would span [music] into a second day.

[00:17:02]On the morning of the second day, I poured myself a coffee and tore back in, [music] only to be met by a torrent of duplicate packs. Pack 104 was the first pack on this second day that I opened that contained any cards I needed for the set at all, and that included Dale Murphy, who [music] is the cover athlete for the box in 1988 and one of the biggest stars of the 1980s. This would have been a major hit back in the day.

[00:17:26]104 [music] packs before I found Murf.

[00:17:30]I limped my way through useless pack after useless [music] pack through pack 108, the last pack of the third full box. The last pack had a Glavin [music] rookie in it. But that didn't detract that after three boxes of packs, 108 packs in total, 1,620 cards, I was still 24 cards short of a complete set. The duplication rate had risen to 59%.

[00:17:55]I only bought four boxes for this experiment, and to be honest, I didn't think I would need four. [music] I was fairly confident that it would take three boxes or less. Boy, was I wrong. And I didn't yet know how wrong I was.

[00:18:10]Okay, box four, my final box. And what better way to start off the last box than a pack of all duplicates. But the second pack of the box gave me hope with six needed cards. That was [music] a full quarter of my remaining cards in one pack.

[00:18:27]Maybe I can complete the set in four boxes.

[00:18:31]Then in the 112th pack, I blew right past 1,000 total duplicates, and the duplication rate had crept above 60%.

[00:18:39][music] Pack 116 was useless, [music] but had the seventh copy of the Kevin Bass card in it. Card 286. Seven Kevin Bass cards in counting. when I had yet to see 16 cards [music] even once.

[00:18:59]Pack 120 had a single card needed, as did pack 121. I was inching my way to the finish line, but was quickly running out of packs.

[00:19:10]Pack 122, useless. 123, useless. 124, [music] useless. 125, useless. 126, useless. 127 useless. 128 useless. 129 useless. 130 useless.

[00:19:30]Pack [music] 131 got me one single card closer to Valhalla.

[00:19:36]With just 13 cards remaining, I went ahead and changed colors on the checklist so you could see the holes better.

[00:19:44]I was still missing the rated rookie cards 52, 54, 55, and 56. cards 188, 189, and 190. [music] And five other cards. Card 280, 650, 651. Bonus card 15, [music] which is the Kirby Pucket MVP, and bonus card 20, which is the Daryl Strawberry MVP. There wasn't a lot doing until we got to pack 137 with two more cards needed, 11 cards to go, but less than 10 packs remaining. And the final packs were cruising by 15 duplicates at a time.

[00:20:19]I got to the end of the fourth box hoping to squeeze it out through some [music] magic pack, but no. Oh crap. I opened [music] 144 packs hoping to complete a set and came up 11 cards short. I opened 2,160 cards [music] out of wax. 1,485 of which were duplicates for a duplication rate of 69%. [music] More than 2/3 of the cards opened were useless duplicates.

[00:20:56]But no way am I quitting now. Now I just have to go find more wax.

[00:21:03]So I put the whole project on pause for a few days as there was an upcoming show the following Saturday. While at that show, I picked up one more wax box of 1988 Don Ross cards for $20. I only bought one box because I only need 11 cards, and there are 540 cards in each wax box. Surely I don't need more than that, right?

[00:21:26]I got back from the show late that night, and so waited until the next morning to dig in for better lighting.

[00:21:32]Box five. Here we go.

[00:21:39]Pack 145 was all duplicates, but it was also a complete sequence of cards.

[00:21:45]Number 628 to 637 in order. Getting a pack with sequenced cards in it had happened a few times already, so I didn't think anything of it. Pack 146 was also all duplicates, and it was also a complete sequence of cards. Number 578 to 591.

[00:22:05]Pack 80 and 81 were both sequenced. So getting two packs in a row with sequence cards had happened once before. So again, I didn't think anything of it.

[00:22:15]But pack 147 was also all duplicates and also a complete sequence of cards. 303 to 317.

[00:22:23]Okay, this is weird. Is this a trend?

[00:22:26]Same with pack 148. All duplicates, all in sequence. Same with pack 149 and 150 and 151 and 152. Every pack contained perfectly sequenced cards. Pack 153 also contained sequence cards, but one of the bonus cards was inserted into the sequence, and it was bonus card number 20, the Daryl Strawberry.

[00:22:53]10 cards [music] to go.

[00:22:56]Pack 154, all duplicates, all sequenced.

[00:23:00]Pack 155 all sequenced cards 275 to 289, but that included the Kevin Citer card [music] 280 in that sequence.

[00:23:11]Nine cards to go. Pack 156, all duplicates, all sequenced.

[00:23:18]Pack 157 was sequenced, but the sequence was 643 to 656, which included [music] cards 650 and 651, which I needed.

[00:23:29]And the bonus card insert was bonus card 15, the Kirby Pucket.

[00:23:36]This was a good pack. Six cards to go.

[00:23:40]And the second sheet was complete, so I could focus on just the first sheet. I was feeling good, but then I hit a long string [music] of bad packs.

[00:23:51]Every pack from this box was sequenced.

[00:23:54]Every pack.

[00:23:56]This would have been amazing had this been my first box opened. But at this point, this oddity of pack collation was a hindrance. By the 160th pack, the duplication rate had eclipsed 70% and was still rising. If the packs were to continue like this, I'd need a pack with a sequenced card in the low 50s and then again around card 190. Two packs should take care of things. The rated rookies, diamond kings, and bonus card MVPs were treated like inserts in this box. There would be 14 sequence [music] cards and one rated rookie or one diamond king. So that meant card 28, which was a rated rookie of Mackie Sasser, would probably come by way of an insert, if it came my way at all at this point.

[00:24:43]This is the stretch in the video where you just watched the duplication numbers climb and climb. The more sequence packs I pulled, the more the sequences aligned. By now, I had several blocks of sequenced cards approaching 100 cards each. It was almost like this box of [music] wax was just a complete set in order, wrapped up in 15 card increments.

[00:25:06]20 [music] packs of duplicates went by in a blur. With each pack, I felt a little more like Sisphus. But then, the 176th pack had card [music] 28 in it.

[00:25:19]the Mackie Sasser rated rookie. And as I turned over the cards to see the numbers, I [music] saw that the sequence was in the low 50s. And there I found cards 52, 55, and 56.

[00:25:33]After 20 packs of nothing, pack number 176 [music] had four of the six remaining cards needed.

[00:25:42]Two cards left to complete my set and four packs remaining in the fifth box.

[00:25:47]And I didn't have a sixth box. Fingers crossed.

[00:25:52]Pack 177, nothing. Pack 178, nothing. Pack 179, nothing. And we crossed the 2,000 [music] duplicates threshold.

[00:26:08]Last pack. And [music] bagel. Son of a.

[00:26:14]Every single pack in this box was sequenced. Everyone. That's weird. But weirder is that five boxes of cards, 180 packs, 2,700 cards opened. And I was still short of a complete set. And how curious that the two cards needed are sequenced. And there were no card shows anytime soon in my area. And my local card store didn't have any 1988 Donors wax boxes in stock. So, off to eBay I went to buy two more wax boxes. With taxes and shipping, these ended up at about $25 per box. This project is getting increasingly frustrating and increasingly expensive. But with only two cards remaining to complete my set, there's no way I need more than two more wax boxes. Right. Right.

[00:27:06]3 days later and I had fresh wax to rip.

[00:27:10]For whatever it's worth, the first four boxes were sourced from a dealer in Arkansas who bought the case in Arkansas. The fifth box was purchased in Tulsa by a dealer from Texas. And the sixth and seventh boxes were purchased on eBay from a dealer in Washington State. Box six, two cards left. Let's go.

[00:27:32]Perhaps to nobody's surprise, the first pack was all duplicates.

[00:27:37]But to my surprise, all the cards in this pack were sequenced.

[00:27:42]Surely this couldn't be another box of all sequence packs, right? So many questions.

[00:27:48]But it could be. This box was sequenced pack after sequenced pack. It appeared I wasn't looking for collation anymore or insertion. I was just looking for the one pack containing a sequence of cards containing 189 and 190, which given 15 [music] cards per pack could be anywhere between card 178 and card 203.

[00:28:11]But the cards didn't appear. Pack after pack of sequenced duplicates. Card 189 is Bob [music] Brenley and card 190 as Dion James. So, not only am I looking for card numbers, but I'm also looking for their names as I open the pack.

[00:28:28]Anything to give me hope at this point.

[00:28:31]Pack 190, nothing. Pack 191, nothing.

[00:28:37]192, nothing. 193, nothing. 194, nothing. 195, nothing.

[00:28:48]196, nothing.

[00:28:51]197.

[00:28:53][music] That's Bob Brenley.

[00:28:57]If this is a sequenced pack and this whole box has been so far, then the next card should be Dion James. Is this it?

[00:29:06]Am I done?

[00:29:14]Hallelujah. Hallelujah. Hallelujah.

[00:29:19]Oh yeah. [singing] Hallelujah.

[00:29:27][music] >> [music] >> Sweet merciful crap. The set is complete.

[00:29:49]It took six wax boxes. It took 197 packs, which is way more than I would have guessed. It took 2,955 total cards. 2,269 of which were duplicates for a total duplication rate of 77%.

[00:30:10]More than 3/4 of the cards I opened were duplicates. Now, we've all known this was the case all these years. And finally, here's the proof. I spent $160 on wax to end up with a complete mint set worth 15 bucks at best.

[00:30:29]Opening packs is the absolute stupidest way to collect cards. And yet, it's so fun that's what we do. If this video does well enough, I'll repeat the experiment with more expensive Topps products. But that's up to you. Please like the video, subscribe if you haven't already, and send this video to a friend that you think might like a good baseball card story.

[00:30:55]As always, [music] thanks for watching.

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[00:31:09][music] Send me an email at [email protected] to talk about how