Jangmi #DomengPH Threatening Japan - Tropical Update

Ajouté : 2026-05-31

[00:00:02]Good morning to those in Japan. Today we're going to be mainly focusing on tropical storm Jangmi, also known as Doming in the Philippines. If you're in the chat, uh, be sure to say hello.

[00:00:13]Let's see who's in the live stream. Let me just send this out right here.

[00:00:25]All right. Uh, get that sent out there.

[00:00:28]get that sent out over there.

[00:00:35]And there we go. We got Andrew in the chat. Hello, Andrew. How are you doing?

[00:00:39]We got Arthur as well. What's up? Hope you're doing well.

[00:00:43]Let's see if there's All right, we'll get started in it now. So, tropical storm Jangmi has recently formed into a tropical cyclone over the past 24 hours.

[00:00:53]And it is going to be posing a threat to parts of the Ryuki Islands and southwestern Japan or really the southern entirety of Japan, even off towards Tokyo, but that's beyond the 5-day range.

[00:01:04]Now, getting on to the track and intensity forecast. It is expected to gradually intensify as a tropical storm over the next 12 to 24 hours before it begins to intensify into a typhoon by around hour 36. By hour 48 up until around hour 72, it is expected to quickly intensify, potentially even rapidly intensify, but it is expected to reach major typhoon intensity at a high-end category 3 at the end of the day three forecast. going on into uh the day four points, it is expected to weaken some as it starts entering those cooler waters. Not just that, but it is also going to be upwelling these waters quite drastically as a large major typhoon. And then it is expected to weaken down into a category 1 typhoon low end at that point at the end of the 5-day forecast and that's going to be curving off towards the northeast off towards Japan. Now, in terms of the impacts that some of these areas could get, well, the Ryuku Islands here are in that at least marginal impact category, as well as portions of um this would be southern uh Kenai over here as well as southern portions of Chubu uh right over here and then the mainly the southern half of Kyushu there is in that marginal impact category. Now, what does it mean if you're expected to see marginal impacts? We'll expect minor tropical impacts with brief periods of gusty winds and some rain. A few branches may come down and minor streak flooding is possible.

[00:02:33]Now, stepping it up to the slight impact category that does include some of the Ryuki Islands, mainly the northeastern bunch here. Those this would be around Osumi as well as um portions of Amami right over here in that slight impact category. Now, this is going to be a mixture of rain and wind for those slight impact category since they're not expected to see really the bullseye of the system. They are still in that that cone of uncertainty, though. So, it could shift westwards and they could see a landfall, but it could just as easily shift east and miss them entirely. Now, in terms of slight impacts, what could you get out of this? Well, noticeable storm conditions with gusts capable knocking down tree limbs and causing power outages. Localized flooding may affect low spots. So that's really the highest level of impacts we're expected to get. Maybe some of these little islands out over here getting into that moderate category as it moves through as a typhoon. But overall, these impacts will be increasing uh by tomorrow as we um as we extend that 5-day forecast over uh for much of Japan and Tokyo will likely be included in at least that marginal impact category.

[00:03:41]Now [clears throat] going into the world of tropics, we don't have a lot going on. and we only have tropical storm at Jangmi. Now, there is a disturbance uh possible in like the eastern Pacific just beyond the 7-day range and there is also one in the South China Sea that's kind of just beyond the 7-day range and even another one um by the coast of Mexico and one by the southeastern coast of the United States, but those aren't really anything significant to be talking about.

[00:04:09]Um we are currently code orange for tropical storm Jangi. So that means updates at least every uh 4 days.

[00:04:17]Now looking at the satellite imagery of our tropical storm Jangmi, we can see it's been getting better organized with convection firing up on the northern side. We're starting to see some good anti-cyclonic outflow here showing its its exhaust there is working quite well.

[00:04:33]So we should see the system organize um over the next at least 24 hours. Uh should get a lot better structure here.

[00:04:40]There is a little bit of a dry slot to the southeast here, but overall the center is covered by convection. We can see the thunderstorm activity over here trying to tug the center underneath all that convection there. Those cloud tops were in the - 80 to - 90° Celsius range.

[00:04:56]So very cold and powerful cloud tops.

[00:05:00]Now talking about the environmental conditions it's going to be facing.

[00:05:03]Well, waters for the next 3 days are going to be quite warm at that 29 to 30° C range. doesn't get cooler until it approaches the Ryuki Islands, which we will see on here. But first, talking about the intensity forecast, pretty much all of them want it to become at least a typhoon, although some of them are hinting at that major typhoon intensity. Track forecast wise, pretty certain that it's going to be I mean, at least these models have it a little bit to the west. I'll admit that's over towards the Sakushima or or not Seeka Islands, the Ryuku Islands, southwestern Ryuku Islands. Um, but the AI models are more inclined to believe that's going to go a little bit to the east of that. And we'll show um more about those model differences in a bits. Talking about windshare, not really going to be much of a problem, especially as we get into 3 to 4 days out, it's going to be very low. So, this will allow for the system to intensify potentially dramatically.

[00:05:58]Um, but then shear will begin to increase as it starts nearing the Yuki Islands. The main problem for the system is going to be that waters are going to tank down below that 26° C threshold.

[00:06:09]So, it's really not going to be conducive for any further intensification after let's say uh the 31st. Dry air isn't really expected to be a problem on here. Now, talking about its distances from certain locations, well, the center is roughly around 1,700 km to the eastsoutheast of Metro Manila, and it's roughly around 1,800 km away from Naha in Okinawa. Um, and looks like around 1,900 km away from uh Amami up there. Um, in terms of Japan, it's roughly around 2,300 km away from mainland Japan. And Tokyo is up at 2600 kilometers.

[00:06:50]Looking at the models here, starting off with the European AI model and what it is forecasting the system to do. It does have it getting pretty close to the Ryuki Islands, but it still misses it to the east. But Japan potentially sees a landfall right near Tokyo as a possible strong uh or severe tropical storm or maybe even typhoon before then it speeds off to the east and doesn't really impact anyone else after Japan.

[00:07:17]Looking at the halves a model run. This is the most recent one and it is showing that pressure dipping down to the 940s.

[00:07:24]I believe this is the strongest run so far. Yes, the earlier one only dipped into the 960s. So, this is getting pretty close to uh or I mean major typhoon status at this point here. Yeah, I mean it's already forecasting now a major category 3 typhoon could be nearing category 4.

[00:07:46]All right. Wait, did I make mistake?

[00:07:55]Ah, okay. I see. I see.

[00:07:59]Uhhuh. Okay. Well, um I'll I'll I'll talk about that later. So, uh looking at the Google Deep Mine Ensembles and what they are forecasting the system to do by around, let's see, this would be around Friday morning, still a severe tropical storm. But as we get into likely Friday nights should intensify into a category 1 typhoon ensembles are pretty clustered and by around let's see this would be overnight uh Saturday into Sunday morning becoming a major category 3 or four typhoon um it does start weakening as we get into let's say Monday morning and starts making its closest approach to the Ryuki Islands likely on Monday or uh either Monday morning or Monday night and then Tokyo will likely see their impacts uh peak out on Wednesday morning as it speeds off to the east. After Wednesday, it seems like conditions will settle down for those regions.

[00:08:56]And uh I did want to discuss a couple of the other signals here. We got one over here by Taiwan. Um this system is going to be moving off towards the northeast, also off towards Japan, but not as strong of a system. We also have a disturbance uh or potential signal here to the west of India there in the Arabian Sea. And then in the North Atlantic here, we do have a little bit of a signal right here in the southeastern United States. But in the eastern Pacific, this will likely be our next signal we'll have to watch off the coast of Mexico potentially for a major hurricane, but that's beyond the uh 10day range. So, it's not an area to watch just yet, at least on the graphics.

[00:09:38]Is this working? Hold on.

[00:09:40]All right.

[00:09:43]Yeah, I know that this is an early stream.

[00:09:46]All right. Well, looking at uh the rainfall totals that the system could drop. Looking at the Okinawa Islands up to around 150 mm of rain and parts of um around Osumi is around 250 mm. But looking over for Metro there in uh Tokyo, up to 80 millimeters of rain and by around they are expected to see up to 200 to 250 mm of rain. That's just the European run. Looking at the American model run, the Osumi Islands could see up to 300 mm of rain. The Okinawa Islands up to around 160 to 200 mm of rain. Tokyo, at least on this model run, only gets in at around 50 mm. But if we take a look at the German run, showing much higher totals across southern uh Japan with Tokyo getting up to 250 mm of rain. Some of the more mountainous regions of southern Japan up to 300 to 400 millime of rain over the next 7 days.

[00:10:45]See if we got any other of these model runs. Here's the Japan. Okay. Well, it's a little bit too far out to be using this one. Now, I did want to discuss the model trends here.

[00:10:57]Um, all right.

[00:11:01]Should be here. Yeah, there we go.

[00:11:03]Looking at the model differences, these dash lines you see are the AI models.

[00:11:08]And you can see they do they do stick pretty closely to those uh physics-based models. That's going to be your solid colors like your American model, uh your European model, those kind of things.

[00:11:19]But they do curve it sharply to the north uh at around day three or so. So, it does have it missing the Ryuki Islands while whereas the other models have a little bit more to the west in hitting the Ryuki Islands. So, again, you still want to be prepared if you're in the Ryuki Islands. But currently, I'm only expecting marginal to slight impacts. I don't think a direct hit is going to happen just yet. But again, I will keep you all updated in future forecast.

[00:11:47]But in terms of uh beyond that range, the consensus gets pretty clear that it's going to miss at least uh central Japan. But uh southeastern Japan like Tokyo could get a direct hit. The Canadian model and the German model are suggesting that. But the other models like the American model, the European and the AI models keep it just offshore.

[00:12:07]And if we take a look at like the landfall probabilities here from the uh Google deep mine and zombies over here, just trying to see how many of these do show it making landfall. We got 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13. So roughly a 26% chance. So like a 1 in4 chance that it does actually make landfall in uh mainland Japan. But there is a three in4 chance or like 75% chance that it misses Japan to the southeast.

[00:12:43]And in terms of model trends, let's see if we can see anything interesting happening here. I mean the AIFS model did show it making landfall or that's the European AI uh landfall in southern Japan but no longer. Um, now terms of the forecasts from the official agency here, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center stayed fairly consistent and I'm curious to look at how the Google Deep Mine has trended. It's trended a little bit to the west. Um, at least in like the medium range, the long range though, it's locked in on a solution staying to the south of Japan.

[00:13:26]Now, [snorts] apparently it's no longer named Doming. I was just uh or it's not named Wait, hold on. Is it Is it named doming or not? It's I think it is named Doming.

[00:13:46]If anyone wants to correct me in the chat, that would be great.

[00:13:52]Uh someone asked why Japan? Why is Japan going to get hit? Well, if we take a look at uh the European AI model and we're going to look at kind of the troughs that are going to be tugging it.

[00:14:05]See, here's where it's located likely right around now. We do have a trough up over here that's going to act to kind of like it's trying to pull it up and as it intensifies, it's going to feel it more.

[00:14:17]We can see a little bit of a a weakness in the ridge over here, which is why it's going mostly to the north.

[00:14:25]As we get into around uh let's see, 24 hours out from now. We can see that the ridge is is pretty weak here. There's a ridge to the west kind of blocking it from going towards the Philippines. Then we do have this trough here that's trying to tug it to the north. And as we get into around 48 hours out from now, we got the ridge building to the east.

[00:14:47]We got a ridge to the west and we got this long trough here that's trying to tug it towards the Ryuku Islands as we get into around 3 days out from now. We got a long trough over Japan here that extends into the East China Sea which likely is still trying to tug it that way. We also got a ridge to the east preventing it from going due east at this point.

[00:15:13]But that little trough here that's trying to tug it towards the Ryuku Islands is going to be moving to the east which is going to be tugging the system uh that way as well. So as we go out into let's see this would be 4 days out from now. Here's a look at where the system is. The trough at this point is all the way over here in eastern uh to the southeast of Japan. Still trying to get tugged that direction although there is a ridge continuing to build to its east. We also have another trough developing off over here moving in towards the Korean Peninsula and that's likely what's going to be tugging it near or over Japan. Here's a look at day five at this point. A little bit of a trough here starting to merge with it and it's getting very close to Japan.

[00:15:59]And then as we get into around day six or so, there it is speeding off to the east like most uh troughs do. and then by day seven or so should be weakening and just continuing going off to the east.

[00:16:16]So, it's mainly going to be this one trough that's currently located over eastern China. This is going to be what's trying to tug it to the north.

[00:16:23]And then there's going to be a second trough here that starts um wait, let me make sure.

[00:16:32]Okay. going to be another little bit of a short wave right over here that's going to be dragging it again to the northeast.

[00:16:40]So that's why it is headed for Japan and not someplace like the Philippines.

[00:16:49]That's cool. Auto translate. All right.

[00:16:56]A typhoon season quite active. Yes, it is. I wonder how far north the sea surface temperatures are at this time.

[00:17:02]Let's take a look at that here. I like using this website, Cyclonic Weather, for their sea surface temperatures. And we'll take a look at the Northwest Pacific here. Quite warm. As you get closer to Japan, um, but if we take a look at the actual sea surface temperatures here, we can see that those waters don't stay warm all the way to mainland Japan. they do cool down into the uh mid to low 20s in terms of degrees C. Um so really it starts taking a toll as soon as it gets close to the Ryuku Islands. Can actually see that on here, but let me Okay, yeah, you see it does show pretty dramatic weakening as we [snorts] get on into day four to day five. Maybe not even a typhoon. That's at least what the halves a is showing.

[00:17:50]But if we take a look at kind of the zoomed out view here and we take a look at these sea surface temperatures that the system is going to be dealing with, you can see how they do remain quite warm around the 26 to 7° C range. But the thing is those waters aren't very deep. So as soon as this major typhoon moves over that area, it just sucks all that warmth out and then you're getting with dealing with quite dramatic upwelling there. So, by around 4 days out from now, it's going to already be beginning to struggle. And as such a large system, I don't think it's going to do um I don't think it's going to handle this quite well. I mean, you do have the stream up here that reaches Japan. It may give it some warmth um as it travels to the northeast, but I don't think it's going to be strengthening at all as you get uh close to Japan.

[00:18:42]Also, the further west the system stays, uh, the better the waters are looking.

[00:18:47]So, it would most likely be a stronger system if it were to make landfall in like the Okinawa Islands.

[00:18:56]Any concerns for risk upgrades for Japan?

[00:19:02]Well, I do think that Tokyo and those regions of southern Japan will be upgraded in the marginal impact category at least. Um, but they could see upgrades as well to the slight impact category. Again, this only goes out uh for five days. So, as we get into tomorrow and this fiveday point shifts likely somewhere over here, then we'll see that cone shift this way. Um, oops.

[00:19:26]And we should see um some higher impact categories there, especially like for one of these islands down here. Um, and I will keep you updated on uh social media for that.

[00:19:39]Andrew says it's not named yet it because it has not entered the Philippine area of responsibility. Well, that's weird that it says domain on here, but I believe you.

[00:19:49]Uh, let's see. Where is the Philippine air? It's 135, I think, right? Okay. So, yeah, pretty soon within the next 24 hours or so, it should get named. Sorry about that. I thought it was already named.

[00:20:04][snorts] Well, uh I did want to look at um again kind of like what's happening around the world in terms of extremes. Seems like Japan is already dealing with extreme heat today and likely throughout this week. Some very warm conditions there.

[00:20:24]Same with parts of the Philippines, uh parts of the northern United States. And man, quite the heat wave by France in the United Kingdom there. No wonder there was so much instability I saw uh in terms of like severe weather there.

[00:20:37]It's just so warm.

[00:20:40]I don't think that I saw anything with like record-breaking cold. No, there's some portions of Africa there getting some cold weather, but not really anywhere getting extreme cold. Windy, of course, it's going to be windy where that system moves. Um, but in terms of rain as well, uh, anywhere getting like recordbreaking storms, doesn't seem like it. Although, it is going to be quite dry in the Atlantic, which is interesting to see.

[00:21:14]I mean, really, it's just like Japan here for at least this disturbance to be watching out for with heavy rainfall.

[00:21:29]Hey, Jaw the Ripper. Nice to see you made it to the stream.

[00:21:33]Andrew askked, "Is Jen Me expected to be a super typhoon or a category five?" I'd say the chances are very low. I'd say probably a 10% chance or less um of it becoming a category 5. I think it's got like a 40% chance of it getting at least to category 4 intensity. um and probably around like a 60 to 70% chance of it reaching uh major typhoon status. So there's that. Yeah, I don't think like J the Ripper says, I don't think it has a good chance of not a very good chance at all of it becoming a category 5. Not like Slaku or some other systems.

[00:22:15]Just that the waters aren't going to remain warm for very long.

[00:22:20]Curious what the upper level conditions are looking like. Oh yeah, very favorable. Very favorable um upper level conditions and it is going to be experiencing a jet interaction when it goes to the northeast. I did want to touch on this a bit. Curious if any of these other ones show it.

[00:22:37]Yeah. So what hurricanes or in typhoons like is they like to have outflow. And we can even visualize that on here.

[00:22:47][clears throat and cough] You got your main circulation that's going like like this direction, but you'll notice a secondary circulation of like wispy clouds that are going to be going this way. We got some going this way. Um even some kind of going that way there. These wispy clouds you'll see right over here um moving that direction. This is its outflow or like exhaust uh which allows it to more efficiently use up that heat uh to intensify into a stronger system.

[00:23:20]Now the system is going to be developing a much better defined upper level anti-cyclone which is pretty much when those winds are going like this out in every direction. But it is going to begin interacting with that jetream that's going to be sparked over uh Japan over here which is like a vacuum to suck out all that heat uh from the system which we'll see as it begins moving to the northeast there. We could see some brief intensification out of it or at least it maintaining intensity as it's access quite a vacuum there sucking all that heat pretty much out of it there allowing it to maintain intensity. um before it gets unfavorable as in it gets sheared into oblivion.

[00:24:05]But that is going to be something we're going to have to watch especially as it turns to the northeast. Jer jet interactions in the northern hemisphere I like it when storms are moving to the northeast. Even if it's like almost due north but a little bit to the east, it also likes that. But as long as it's moving to the northwest, it's not going to really feel it as much.

[00:24:28]Is Taiwan going to be affected by it?

[00:24:31]Um, no impacts are going to be expected uh for Taiwan, at least for this system, but the system after that could deliver some marginal impacts uh for parts of southern Japan. It's beyond the 7-day range though, and it's not even an area of interest just yet. Might mark that by tomorrow, though.

[00:24:56]Uh J the Ripper asked if it's going to be an ace maker. I think it's going to do a decent amount of ace. I don't know how much. Maybe like 10 or so. Nothing insane like Sin Laku. And J the Ripper mentions as well tornado threat for Japan with uh Jangmi. If we take a look at it again, um it is going to be feeling that jetream there and we could see some a couple tornadoes out around uh that would be northeastern or southeastern Japan. It's a little bit far out uh to be looking at specifics terms of what they could be getting, but I do think lots of supercells over here off to the northeast um could be potentially tornatic there. Yeah, lots of lots of shear there. So, we could see some potential water spouts there that try to push inland into mainland Japan.

[00:25:46]Also, we can see just when the system upwells here, how that core that it has just really fails and it's just a large sloppy mess, which is going to make the system grow in size. I did want to also point out that here it's going to go from likely around, let's see, it's around Oh, whoops. Nope. Didn't mean to do that either. Um, it's going to go roughly from around like 300 kilometers wide to upwards of H. Okay. Well, it doesn't doesn't like me there. Let me try this again.

[00:26:23]Huh.

[00:26:25]Did I Okay. Whoops.

[00:26:30]All right. It goes from around 200 kilometers wide to around 600 to 700 kilometers wide as it starts nearing um the Ryuku Islands and southern Japan.

[00:26:42]Probably see that on here as well.

[00:26:44]You'll see the size quickly grow as it nears well I mean not as much on this model run but it will grow as it nears Japan which is why much of the southern portions here if we kind of show the size of the system compared to its center just centers roughly right there and we'll move this kind of where it's expected to go if it goes right along here most of the southern portions of Japan will be seeing a tropical storm force winds even if the center misses mainland Japan Of course, the center could go as far north as right around here, meaning that the entirety of southwestern Japan gets in on that gale force winds, but if it goes more to the south, it might just barely miss uh portions of Japan. Again, that cone of insurgency is large for a reason. We don't know where exactly it's going, but based on the current uh trajectory, it should deliver gale force winds to these southern portions of Japan.

[00:27:45]Is Jangmi expected to become an extra tropical storm within the next couple of days? Not within the next um 5 days at least, but beyond that range um it's it's going to be uncertain.

[00:27:56]Maybe it becomes a frontal system right as it clips Japan. So maybe within around six or seven days.

[00:28:08]Oops.

[00:28:13]Yeah, I see people mentioning the GFS model and how it's been going pretty crazy in the Atlantic. And also, this one has it going way to the west. I don't think that this is going to happen. Um, speaking of things I don't think will happen.

[00:28:29]See what this model run eventually showed.

[00:28:33]Right. Just a sloppy mess over Florida.

[00:28:35]But this other model run here, this one wanted pretty much chaos across Florida as a hurricane. Um, I I don't think that that's going to happen. There is a legitimate signal though that something could develop in like the southeastern United States, which I think that's what the European model was also hinting at.

[00:28:53]Not on this one though. They are hinting at something developing. Oh wait, maybe they are. Let me go back.

[00:29:00]Not really seeing it here. They are hinting at that system developing in the eastern Pacific, which we'll have to watch out for, especially for the Mexican coastline.

[00:29:10]Is the Philippines going to be in affected by Jangmi? Nope, not from that system. That next system, possibly the northwestern portions of um of like Luzon in the Philippines could see some impacts from it. Again, not really expecting a typhoon out of its in terms of Philippine impacts.

[00:29:29]J Ripper mentioned storm surge will be big. Yes, as this system grows in size, that storm surge uh potential will increase.

[00:29:42]All right. Well, that seems like that's about it for today. Um so pretty much um again in terms of the next update will likely be within the next 4 days maybe even uh two or three days um as we get a little bit more more certainty on the impacts that impact Japan and the population threat increases.

[00:30:07]Um so that will likely again be in around 2 to 4 days is what I'd guess. Um again if you haven't already please consider subscribing. We're now 9 away from 6.7K.

[00:30:18]Thank you all so much for the support.

[00:30:21]And uh let's see. All right. And I will see you all in the next update. Stay safe.