Why India Could Win From OPEC’s Collapse | Periscope

Added: 2026-05-17

[00:00:01]For nearly 50 years, one organization quietly controlled the global oil market. When prices crashed, it intervened. When wars disrupted supply, it stabilized markets. When the world feared shortages, it decided how much oil the planet would get. That organization was OPEC.

[00:00:23]But something extraordinary is now happening. The United Arab Emirates, one of the wealthiest oil producers on Earth, has decided the old oil order no longer serves its interests.

[00:00:35]>> The United Arab Emirates is leaving OPEC after 60 years in a move that could weaken the group's control over global oil supply. The UAE is OPEC's third largest producer and says it wants more flexibility as the war in Iran disrupts energy market.

[00:00:53]>> This isn't a disagreement over quotas.

[00:00:55]This is a geopolitical fracture, a power struggle inside the Gulf and a sign that the era of coordinated oil control may be ending. Hidden inside this crisis is a massive strategic opportunity for India.

[00:01:16]At the heart of this story is a straightforward economic conflict. The UAE [music] spent billions expanding its oil production infrastructure, targeting nearly 5 million barrels per day by 2027, but OPEC kotas prevented it from using that capacity. From Abu Dhabi's perspective, the logic had collapsed. We built the infrastructure, we invested the money, so why should we leave oil in the ground? OPEC operates on collective restraint. countries deliberately produce less oil to keep prices high.

[00:01:51]But the UAE increasingly believed that restricting production was hurting it more than helping it, especially because the world itself is changing. For decades, Gulf nations behaved as if oil wealth would last forever. The UAE no longer thinks that way. Its leadership believes the world is slowly moving toward electric vehicles, renewable energy, climate regulation, and lower long-term oil dependence. So instead of saving reserves for the future, the UAE wants to monetize them now. While global demand is still enormous, that revenue is being redirected into finance, logistics, AI, tourism, ports, sovereign wealth funds, and clean energy. Dubai didn't transform into a global city by accident. The UAE is building a post oil empire before the oil era fades, and OPEC kotas were slowing that strategy down.

[00:02:54]This story isn't only economic, it's deeply geopolitical.

[00:02:59]Inside OPEC, one country has long dominated almost everything, Saudi Arabia.

[00:03:06]But over the last decade, the UAE has grown [music] far more ambitious and independent.

[00:03:12]The rivalry between Riyad and Abu Dhabi now stretches across oil policy, trade, Yemen, Sudan, Red Sea influence, relations with Israel, and ties with the United States. The UAE no longer wants to play Saudi Arabia's junior partner.

[00:03:30]Leaving OPEC became symbolic, a signal to the world. We make our own decisions now.

[00:03:40]The UAE also appears to believe something larger. OPEC itself is losing relevance. Three reasons explain this.

[00:03:49]First, many member countries already quietly cheat on Kotas, eroding internal discipline.

[00:03:56]Second, the rise of American shale oil changed the game permanently.

[00:04:01]Every time OPEC cuts supply and prices rise, US shale producers increase output and capture market share. From the UAE's view, why sacrifice production so America benefits?

[00:04:15]Third, OPEC's share of global oil output is slowly declining anyway. The UAE seems to have concluded it is better to compete aggressively now than remain constrained inside an aging cartel.

[00:04:30]Timing matters here. The UAE's move came amid escalating tensions involving Iran, attacks in the Gulf, instability near the Strait of Hormuz, and fears of wider regional conflict. Analysts believe the UAE felt abandoned by regional institutions during these crises, triggering a broader reassessment of OPEC, Gulf Unity, and the entire regional power structure.

[00:04:56]The UAE's foreign policy has become transactional.

[00:05:00]If an alliance no longer serves Emirati interests, they move beyond it. Another important shift is happening in the background. The UAE has grown significantly closer to the United States and Israel, especially after the Abraham Accords, and Washington has always disliked OPEC production cuts.

[00:05:19]They raise oil prices for American consumers.

[00:05:22]Leaders like Donald Trump repeatedly criticized OPEC publicly.

[00:05:26]>> OPEC and OPEC nations are as usual ripping off the rest of the world and I don't like it.

[00:05:38]Nobody should like it.

[00:05:40]>> A freer UAE producing more oil aligns well with American interests and that creates further tension with Saudi Arabia.

[00:05:50]This is where the story becomes important for India. India may emerge as one of the biggest beneficiaries of this entire transformation.

[00:05:59]Lower oil prices. India imports the vast majority of its crude oil. If OPEC's weakening [music] leads to greater competition, more supply and reduced cartel control, oil prices could soften structurally over time. that reduces India's import bill, lowers inflation, supports the rupee and eases pressure on government finances. For India, cheaper oil is a hidden economic stimulus.

[00:06:25]>> So the possibility of more countries within OPEC trying [music] to v for more share of production, increasing the production, it occurs well for the countries like importing countries like India because it will put a downward pressure on the oil prices. Greater strategic leverage. A divided Gulf creates diplomatic opportunity.

[00:06:46]Gulf nations now compete for investment, trade routes, logistics dominance, [music] and geopolitical partnerships.

[00:06:54]Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE want access to Indian markets, Indian talent, and India's booming economy. That gives New Delhi real bargaining power. Exiting OPEC removes diplomatic constraints [music] on the block, allowing the UAE to independently use its massive [music] oil supply as leverage to forge new strategic partnerships and secure its own defense arrangements [music] outside of traditional western channels.

[00:07:20]>> India as a trade hub. The UAE is aggressively diversifying beyond oil and India sits at the center of that strategy. Abu Dhabi [music] already views India as a key consumer market.

[00:07:33]logistics partner, technology partner and manufacturing alternative. Projects like the India Middle East Europe corridor could accelerate significantly.

[00:07:42]>> The Indian Middle East Europe corridor or the IMEC will connect the East Indian corridor to the Gulf region and the Northern Corridor will connect the Gulf region to Europe.

[00:07:52]>> It will be the most direct connection to date between India, the Arabian Gulf and Europe. investment and integration. As Gulf countries compete economically, they become more likely to invest in India, offer favorable trade terms, and deepen strategic ties. Instead of depending solely on oil exports, the Gulf increasingly wants integration with Asian growth economies. And India is one of the biggest growth stories on Earth.

[00:08:24]Is the UAE leaving OPEC the collapse of the old oil order? Not immediately. OPEC will still matter. Saudi Arabia will remain enormously powerful. Oil will still dominate global energy for years.

[00:08:39]But this decision signals something deeper. The Gulf is changing. The old system built around unquestioned Saudi leadership is weakening. Countries like the UAE now want flexibility, independence, and post oil power. If this trend continues, the world could enter a far more fragmented and competitive energy era. For India, that fragmentation may prove to be an enormous strategic advantage. Cheaper oil, more leverage, more investment, and a more prominent role in reshaping the world's most consequential region. If this is the kind of analysis you're looking for, geopolitical breakdowns, economic power shifts, and the hidden forces shaping the future of the world, subscribe to Periscope. We go deep so you don't have to. And as always, thanks for watching.