This Chart Shows Who's Actually Buying at $60,000

[00:00:00]Hey guys, welcome back to another video.

[00:00:03]So, three weeks ago, I put out a video where we just broken below $60,000 and we discussed the idea of accumulating at those sub $60,000 level.

[00:00:15]We then faded down to around that $58,000 level. Now, we're sitting at around $65,000. So today I want to update you on what the onchain data is actually showing now that we've had, you know, a couple of weeks to sort of digest this move because and there are a couple numbers in here that genuinely surprised me. Uh before we get into the video, I did want to mention that I did a a podcast, an hour podcast with Onchain Mind, Tom, and Bitco uh Matt from Bitcoin Magazine Pro. If you guys want to check that out, I'll link it in the description below so you guys can go and watch that if you want. So, I'm not going to spend a ton of time on the news cycle, the Fed, uh the ge geopolitical stuff, but real quick on that though, uh the ETF flows had their worst month on record in June. Uh over $4 billion was pulled out of the ETFs. This month, the Fed meets uh in July of 28th and 29th this month. So, right now, markets are pricing around a 70% chance that they hold right steady. And if they hold with sort of hawkish hawkish language, I I wouldn't rule out a retest of that $60,000 level. Again, in terms of the onchain picture, there was a metric that very much stood out to me, which was the long-term holder percentage supply and loss. When we actually went down to around $58,000, this metric actually spiked above the 2022 bottom reading. I did mention this in the telegram uh as it was happening.

[00:01:51]If you were there, you should go join that if you want. And so that is a pretty big deal, right? It it means for a moment at least a larger share of long-term holders, we're actually sitting underwater uh more so than the bottom uh of the last entire bare market. And since the the balance actually come down to around 41.14% at the very low of $58,000 is around 45% of long-term holders were in loss. But that spike sort of told you something in the data which is in my opinion that capitulation is still underway and has been occurring throughout this entire bare market and you know people are starting to feel the pain more and more.

[00:02:35]We obviously topped at around, you know, around $126,000 in October. And so every prior four-year cycle, um, you know, every prior four-ear cycle, uh, bottom has landed around 12 to 13 months after the top, right? So, if you are a believer of the four-year cycle, and that still puts the hypothetical window uh somewhere between September and November, um this year, so far, we're still right on schedule. You know, in in 2014, it took around 411 days from top to bottom. In 2017, it took around 363 days from top to bottom. In 2022, it took around 378 days. So, you know, if you are a believer of the four-year cycle, that would suggest we still have around 100 uh 90 to 100 days left for the actual bottom to play out, which in my opinion is not a great indicator, you know, to to bet all of all of your uh your savings on. Um it's just something to to keep in mind, right? Something that that did change uh since my last video is that we broke below the 200E moving average in late June. you know, we closed a full week below the 200week moving average and and have since gone up uh above that level around 60 $65,000 right now. It currently sits at around $63,000.

[00:04:04]And so, you know, sometimes you can get a false break and then reclaim.

[00:04:09]Sometimes it it sort of rolls back over.

[00:04:12]In 2022, we actually saw the same thing play out where you get that initial spike uh uh drop below the 200week moving average and then you break back above it only to then get rejected at the short-term lower cost basis and ultimately fade back down to those lower cost basis levels which um you know can change over time. I think Bitcoin is maturing as an asset uh you know a as more and more years go by. I do think, you know, that a lot of these lower onchain metrics will probably break for Bitcoin. So, you know, that that's just something to keep in mind. Uh, in terms of the overall onchain uh picture, the MVRV score, MVRV Zcore is currently at 0.39. That's undervalued territory. The soap bar is around break even right now on on on a daily basis which basically means that coins are are moving on chain at roughly cost you know on average they're they're break even right now.

[00:05:11]The fuel multiple that's currently at around 0.65 65, which is sort of normal, below average, meaning uh miners are sort of starting to feel the pain. And the reserve risk is actually at one of the lowest levels that we've seen this bare market, which you know is around 0.001, which is about as low as the metric gets. And historically, the low reserve risk has tended to to historically line up with favorable long-term entries uh as well as you know just being in an overall low liquidity environment uh for Bitcoin. On the supply side, I did want to talk about the long-term holder supply which is currently sitting at around 16.79 million Bitcoin are currently being held by these long-term holders and only 3.27 27 million bitcoin of the circulating supply are being held by short-term holders. So that is a very massive skew towards you know these longer term uh wallets and and that does matter in my opinion because you know those people are the people who have sort of been through these bare markets before and you know they're not the ones panicking panicking right now. We actually, you know, haven't seen this low of of a of a short-term holder, uh, you know, overall short-term holder wallets um, since last last like only nearly 10 years ago, over 10 years. You know, we haven't seen this low of of a reading on the short-term holder uh supply. And so, a quick rundown on the overall cost basis levels. The short-term holder cost basis sits at around 60 $67,000 right now. So, we're trading about 3% below that right now. The long-term holder uh cost base is actually risen all the way up to nearly $50,000 right now. We're about 30% above that. Right now, 29.6% above that. The realized price is at around $52,700.

[00:07:12]We're about 22% above that right now.

[00:07:15]the true market mean, which currently sits around $76,000, which you know is a different level, but basically showing you where the actively invested supply is. Uh that sits around six uh $76,000.

[00:07:28]That's a level that, you know, I think we could watch in order to see an actual break uh above a and see sort of a bull market rally uh to to actually start the bull market. We didn't actually see it break above until a year after the actual bottom was in in 2022. So, we still have a meaningful amount of time left uh in my opinion to see a break above $76,000.

[00:07:53]So, so the sentiment the fear and green index is currently sitting around 29. Um the altcoin season index is around 48.

[00:08:01]So, Bitcoin is currently leaning right now. uh funding rates around 7% and the open interest is currently at 3 point 30 31 billion and so the the overall onchain risk score is currently at around 37% out of 30 out of 100%. So not extreme low risk right now at at $65,000. we were uh in those lower 20s when we hit $58,000, which goes to show you how far Bitcoin fell relative to all of these onchain metrics. One last chart I I do want to show you guys before I end the video is the long-term wealth concentration chart. And so all this all all this is really showing is how much of the supply is concentrated as a percentage of the realized price of the realized cap in these longer term holder uh you know wallets over time. And if you look back throughout history you can clearly see you know a very distinct pattern play out if I apply a 30-day moving average to this. During bare markets, you know, the long-term concentration tends to rise while while you know coins move into stronger hands into accumulators. You can see that in 2011 and 2015 we reached all the way up to 80% of coins held in long-term wallets. Uh in 2019, we hit around 73%. In 2022, it went all the way up to 81%. Right now, we're sitting at around 80% on a 30-day uh double exponential moving average. And so, you know, in in a bull markets, it tends to be the opposite, right? Where you see the long-term holder wealth concentration going down, which typically means that, you know, these longer term wallets are distributing into Euphoria. And so, right now, we're sitting at around 80%.

[00:09:56]And it's actually increasing still at around an average uh 0064% per day. So here's what I I personally think happens next, right? I I think that we probably see a continued rally up to the short-term holder cost basis whether we chop around here or not uh for a couple of days or so, maybe two weeks or so and ultimately hit around $67,000 off the back of all this accumulation that we're seeing and then we could potentially see a rejection on the first pass of that level. So what I'm saying is basically we rally up to $667,000 potentially see a rejection off that level maybe retest the 200WE moving average and from there we'll sort of see what Bitcoin does potentially uh you know it's definitely possible that we we retest $60,000 again. But, you know, there's also a real chance uh, you know, we just chop around $60,000 to $65,000 for a few months. And honestly, that could just be it. And and and the bare market could be over. But either way, you know, we have seen a large long-term holder accumulation here. And, you know, that's always been the pattern in bare markets. So accumulating at these lower levels is is always a good idea regardless of which of these, you know, whatever you're seeing on Twitter, whatever you're thinking will happen. I think in in general, we're in an we're in an area where it makes sense in terms of risk-to-reward to start accumulating Bitcoin and potentially other assets like Ethereum at say $1,600, which I personally picked up some around that level. So, putting it all together, we we've got a real capitulation, you know, spike that we saw at $58,000 in the long-term holder losses, you know, briefly worse than 2022. We've since reclaimed the 200E moving average. Um, you know, a lot of the onrade metrics have flashed. Um, long-term holders are still accumulating strong at almost nearly 17 million uh, Bitcoin. And my approach, you know, sort of hasn't really changed. um you know systematic accumulation through the zone, you're not going to see anyone ringing ringing a a bell at the bottom, right? You know, you have to sort of you know, stick to your own um you know, you know, your own thesis, right? If you want to track every one of these metrics live on chartspec.com, we've got a free tier with over 200 free metrics and a pro tier at $24 a month if you want access to more of the uh technical indicators.

[00:12:34]I'm also very close to coming out with a brand new update uh for chart inspect which um uh I'm adding a couple of onchain metrics uh more more onchain metrics across a lot of different blockchains like XRP, Salana, uh Tron, Hype uh uh Hyperlid and a lot of other uh metrics like Ethereum tokens and and TRC20 tokens. I'll be sending some sneak peeks in the in the Telegram as soon as possible. Uh, the Telegram link is in the description below. Thank you guys for watching. I'll see you next one.

[00:13:06]Bye.