Iran War Drives Africa’s Fertilizer Crisis

Ajouté : 2026-05-09

[00:00:00]Africa has the land, the labour and the demand to become a global agricultural powerhouse, but its full potential remains largely under-utilised and the stakes are rising as global supply shocks like the Iran war push up fuel, transport and food costs, with knock on effects already being felt across African economies. According to the AfDB, the continent currently holds about 60% of the world's uncultivated arable land, which is a largely untapped resource. Agriculture already employs around 60% of Africa's workforce, making it the continent's largest source of jobs.

[00:00:39]It produces everything from staple crops like maize, cassava and rice to global exports like cocoa and coffee. But much of Africa's agricultural potential remains underdeveloped. Yields are relatively low, infrastructure is limited, and large areas of fertile land remain uncultivated, leaving significant room for growth.

[00:01:02]And that opportunity is starting to attract global attention.

[00:01:06]In the Gulf, food security is a major priority.

[00:01:10]GCC countries import as much as 80 to 90% of their food due to water scarcity and limited farmland, and they're increasingly looking outward to secure supply. Africa, with its land, resources and proximity, has become a key partner. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and Kuwait are investing in agricultural projects across the continent, from farmland and irrigation to logistics and food processing, with the goal to build a more stable, diversified food supply chains while tapping into Africa's production potential. For African economies that investment could help unlock productivity, expand exports and strengthen agricultural value chains. And the scale of the opportunity is significant. The AfDB estimates the continent's food and agriculture market could grow from around $280 billion today to trillion by 2030. Realising that growth will depend on how quickly Africa can turn its natural advantage into output.

[00:02:16]The ripple effects of the Iran war are hitting global food supply chains from fuel to fertilizers, raising concerns about higher prices and food security, particularly in import dependent parts of Africa, that's as key inputs to agriculture are disrupted just as many countries head into planting season.

[00:02:34]For more, I'm now joined by Alexis Maxwell, senior agriculture analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, and also Agnieszka de Sousa, EMEA agriculture team leader, joining us now. What exactly does this mean for the crops on the ground, for those crops that are using fertilizer?

[00:02:51]Especially when we look at some of the countries that are heading into planting season? Higher fertilizer prices essentially will mean that farmers will need to revisit whether they need to apply as much of those fertilizers on the ground or not. It means basically that they're going to have to rethink whether to use less and less fertilizer basically means, you know, less planned development, lower yields and question marks over the production.

[00:03:21]Now, we haven't seen we are just waiting in a waiting mode and trying to watch farmer behaviors. Right now, the northern hemisphere, they're planting. One thing is that this month and next month will be crucial because that's when we are going to see that farmer behavior changing. So they will decide whether they want to maybe switch to different crops that don't require as much fertilizer.

[00:03:49]Or they may just decide to use fertilizer and expecting lower yields as a result. Alexis, is that what you're seeing?

[00:03:59]I know you said Africa uses less fertilizer than elsewhere, but but how are you seeing that potentially affecting the upcoming season?

[00:04:07]So the story is actually going to be one I think will extend into 2027, because the time cycle of how this decision that Aggie mentioned this - do I use that last incremental ton of fertilizer at prices that has shot up and doubled since the war began? Farmers will use less fertilizer because they can't either get it or it's too expensive.

[00:04:33]And so what we'll see happen is lower production in the second half of the year. And if this crisis continues, we will really see an impact on 2027 crops as well.

[00:04:44]There's a number of net net importers of fertilizers, but there's also a number of net exporters. So when we look at maybe some of those net exporters, are they potentially able to fill the gaps for some of these other countries on the continent? Yeah.

[00:05:00]So the question then becomes one of cost and logistics.

[00:05:04]Much of the export oriented capacity in Africa is in places like Morocco, Nigeria or Egypt, countries that are very far away from where some of the farming is concentrated. And so then it becomes can we shift production and send it into regions of Africa where farmers need it?

[00:05:25]There's not great alternatives if farmers can't find the fertilizer that they need. Some farmers may turn to sources like manure as an alternative. Aggie, just on that point, what does that mean then for global food prices? Alexis said this could be a 2027 story.

[00:05:45]How are you looking at the trickle down effects on global food prices?

[00:05:49]Because this isn't just a continent wide story.

[00:05:52]If the conflict continues in a way, we are sitting on the ticking bomb, waiting for the costs to filter through, I mean, as of March that the gauge of global food prices was pretty stable.

[00:06:04]But the FAO expects pressure and food prices to kick in this month. Next month there should be more pressure on them. But really the higher costs should show towards the end of the year into 2027. In general, we are not just talking about fertilizers. We're we're talking about higher energy costs, putting pressure on food costs as well.