What would relegation mean for West Ham? | The Football Boardroom

Added: 2026-05-10

[00:00:00]Welcome to the football boardroom. As we approach the business end of the season, today we take a look at West Ham. Who's making the decisions now behind the scenes? What dilemas do they face this summer? Whether they stay up or go down, what does a doomsday scenario look like?

[00:00:18]And please remember to subscribe so you don't miss any episodes.

[00:00:27]Christian, good to see you. I was watching Arsenal and Sunday is a seismic day in the season for Arsenal as they go to West Ham. But we're focusing today on West Ham United and I think for them this is their biggest game since the the Euro final in 2023. Just a high point for the club. But you look at events since then and if they lose and Tottenham are obviously showing signs of life under Derby. We discussed it in in a recent episode. I think all the headlines that us in the media uh like to throw around about West Ham under pressure in a crisis, the hammerheaded and the hammer house of horrors, all of those have started the you know the bubbles being burst and I think this is a chronicle of a death foretold. You look at the problems over the last 10 13 years going into the stadium the club said they wanted a world-class stadium for a world-class team. They've got neither at the moment as the fans I've been talking to the fans and they will absolutely confirm that and there will be more than murmurss of dissent of protest at the weekend if the if the team struggle we need to look into the future direction of the club. The fans will always be the emotional owners of the club but the contractual owners financial owners are obviously people who you have mixed with and you can sort of explain to me in terms of David Sullivan and Daniel Katinsky. if you can just sort of explain to to me as someone looking from out with the boardroom into it at West Ham, who are these individuals?

[00:01:58]>> Well, they are the two key players now and and I'll sort of explain how we got there. So, let's start with David Sullivan in in in many respects. He's been the most important figure in the boardroom uh for the last 15 16 years.

[00:02:11]Uh David is now I think 77 years old and he is a man who made his wealth his considerable wealth largely estimated in the sort of billion pound territory in the 70s as a key figure uh in what is euphemistically known as the adult entertainment industry and uh while in that business actually I think it's a very interesting uh part of the background story to the people behind West Ham. One of his big rivals was another David, David Gold, and they were, shall we say, engaged in the battle for the top shelf. And like a lot of rivals, they uh make their peace and become business partners. and David Sullivan and David Gold from 19 from the early 70s did become partners in that colorful business and um and were partners for over 50 years until David Gold sadly passed away in 2023. and as partners they got into the football business initially buying together Birmingham City in the '90s and then within minutes of selling Birmingham in about 2010 they bought West Ham where I think it's pretty important to point out both of them had much more of a personal connection David having David Sullivan having grown up in the area David Golden not only having grown up in the area but as was pointed out really rather touchingly at the funeral which I attended. He actually played for the juniors as well. So the Sullivan Gold era began in 2010 and rolling that forward in 2021.

[00:03:58]They brought in a new investor into the club and that person is Daniel Katinsky.

[00:04:05]Could not be more different to >> in what way? Well, for a start, he has absolutely no personal connection because he is a Czech national 50-y old club, isn't it?

[00:04:16]>> Sparta Prague's club. Exactly. He's about 50 and he is a phenomenally rich man. Uh estimated by good sources to be worth maybe 10 billion US. And he's made his wealth interestingly initially in the energy business. What's interesting about him as we get to West Ham is he is widely referred to in financial circles.

[00:04:40]He has a funny name called the Czech Sphinx.

[00:04:44]Not quite sure what he's ever thinking.

[00:04:46]Very low profile. And he is seen as a contrarian investor. He buys things that are a bit out of fashion that other investors think have had their day.

[00:04:56]Started out when the world was going green, mopping up coal and gas power stations in Eastern Europe. making a huge fortune in that world. Then he when the world's going internet crazy, he buys a bunch of bricks and mortar retailers. He's a big shareholder in sainsburries. He's in Britain locker for a while, did he?

[00:05:14]>> He did. And then as another example of a pretty contrarian, uh he buys when the world's going essentially electronic in distribution of of post and information, he buys the Royal Mail, which he now controls solely. So, so a man who has made a fortune buying businesses often initially taking minority positions and then as he figures out the business many occasions moving from a minority position to a control position i.e taking over more than 50% of the ownership of those enterprises which for many of his businesses is the way he currently runs them. Now coming to West Ham in 2021, he bought a 27% stake in the club for about 170 million quid, valuing West Ham at about 600 million quid. So in effect, this contrarian investor saw an opportunity to take a stake in a privately run football club in London, West Ham, run by two extremely close partners, Sullivan and Gold. 50 years together in business.

[00:06:28]David Sullivan famously said they never fell out once in those 50 years. That's quite a contrarian thing to do. But there was a catch. When Kretinsky bought this minority stake, it is widely acknowledged in the filings at the time that he secured what we call in in the private equity world a route to control Henry. In other words, yes, he bought 27%, but he agreed with David Sullivan and David Gold the deal to buy the rest of the club later on a pre-agreed formula if he chose to do so.

[00:07:02]>> So, why would they agree to that? Well, firstly, you know, 600 million pound valuation at that time was considered, you know, a very very clever piece of business by Sullivan and Gold. You know, they hadn't spent anything like that uh to get into West Ham and to to put a floor on the value of their club at 600 million looked like a very good piece of business. Now, it's not clear whether the formula under which he could buy the rest of the club would be at the same or more, but it certainly wouldn't be at less. So, think of it that way. You got a house, it's worth, you know, you've sold a quart of your house at a very good valuation and the rest of it is going to sell for at least that number.

[00:07:45]That was the logic of that deal. But Henry, really importantly, I think most people, and I include myself in that, thought that it really was a stepping stone to Katinsky buying out the whole club and that didn't happen. And I think that in some respects is what is fascinating where about where we find ourselves in in 2026.

[00:08:10]>> Why hasn't it come to that stage? Is it purely because you listen to the fans, you know, they weren't fans of Brady.

[00:08:17]They weren't particularly fans of Gold.

[00:08:19]They're certainly not fans of Sullivan.

[00:08:22]Why they are targeting a lot of the fans are targeting Sullivan? Why doesn't Kretinsky make his move?

[00:08:30]Well, we should probably talk about the numbers because I think it would be fair to say with the benefit of hindsight that that 21 2021 investment was very well timed from a selling perspective that it was in many respects, you know, a very good time. I think at the time West Ham were flying high in the league. David Moyes was doing his stuff and it looked like the only way was actually up and it needed to be to justify a valuation at that time of of over600 million pounds and I think it's fair to say after a couple of very good years things have gone south uh for the club in the last two or three years they've spent hugely and haven't got a huge amount to show for it in terms of squad value And the results that they announced recently for last year were the worst loss in the club's history. They were losing over 100 million pounds, 106 million with turnover down to just over 220 million.

[00:09:42]>> So why is turnover going down? I thought things were rising in the Premier League. Turnover went down for West Ham for one overarching reason which is they finished 14th and so their Premier League share of TV income was meaningfully down. The rest of their business match day and commercial was reasonable but they have spent so heavily in the transfer market that the effect of that transfer spending on those financial statements. this famous amortization figure. When you spend £100 million, 20 of it goes through your profit and loss statement on a 5-year contract. The amotization figure now is so large, the club is losing a huge amount of money. And so, to answer your question on Katinsky, I think business has been struggling in the last two or three years. and for whatever reason he has not chosen to increase his stake in that context and then and this is the nub of our uh analysis today a catalyst for change I mentioned sadly the passing of David Gold in early 23 his 25% shareholding by definition now held by the estate of David Gold has been for sale more or less ever So why hasn't Sullivan given the connection bought that?

[00:11:08]>> Well, I think it would be fair to say, you know, David hasn't been famous for writing big checks in respect of his West Ham investment.

[00:11:16]>> He's dealing with a big check.

[00:11:18]>> He is dealing with a big check. I knew there'd be a cunning pun in here somewhere. I was a bit worried we might be dealing with adult adult entertainment puns. Well, look, um, the two Davids, uh, in COVID did lend the club, I think, over50 million pounds. So that was real money. But when Katinsky put up his 170 million quid in 23, the first 54 of that paid back the two Davids and there's been no shareholder funding since then. So the idea that David having, you know, bought the club well, having obviously pulled off the deal of the century from a financial standpoint anyway in getting a 63,000 seat stadium for, you know, bugger all, um, >> which we're paying for, by the way.

[00:12:02]>> Uh, we are, aren't we, as London taxpayers, I think it's fair to say I I don't think David's in the market, at 77y old, to be buying out his former partner's estate. I think most people would have expected Kretinsky to do so.

[00:12:15]What was clear, and I think our our um our audience will understand this, not an easy thing to sell a 25% stake in a private company where the estate, I'm sure, has financial pressures and fiduciary pressures. Lo and behold, with no third party apparently playing ball, those shares, the gold family shares in the recent weeks, it has been announced, have been bought by a combination of Katinsky and Sullivan. So Sullivan has gone up from about 37% to 40 and Kretinski has gone up from about 27% to 40%. That is the big news at West Ham from an era where in effect the Sullivan and gold families have controlled the club for 15 years as tight tight partners more or less as one. We now have a situation where coming facing up to a summer that we need to talk through in terms of some meaningful financial and strategic pressures, Katinsky and Sullivan have cleared the decks, taken out 15% of the gold family. They still have 10, by the way, and there's another investor with 10%. But but yes, but in essence, West Ham is now jointly owned 4040 by this Czech multi-billionaire and David Sullivan. And I think that raises huge and interesting questions about how the business will be run.

[00:13:55]>> Well, in terms of one car, two steering wheels, how how does that work? When do you have to look, you've been in this business, you've been in the boardrooms of three clubs. How can you have effectively two leaders? We did an episode on Arsenal and you made a point throughout that. It was fascinating listening to you. Your point on Arsenal was that there was one person dominating Stan Kron.

[00:14:17]>> Yeah, you're right. I >> got two here.

[00:14:19]>> I You're right. And we also did an episode on Chelsea where I expressed my concerns and reservations about the falling out between Boli and Eggbali.

[00:14:27]And I shared my very personal raw experience of obviously in 20 in 2009 when I stepped into the middle of the war between two 50/50 owners Hicks and Gillette at Liverpool. I'm scarred by the Hicks Gillette experience and I do think the Big Dad Edbali Bolley dispute is hurting that football club. And all I will say is they couldn't come at it from two more different backgrounds, David Sullivan and Daniel Katinsky. So I I would put it this way. Okay. Where can they find common purpose? And what would Daniel Kretinski in moving from 27 to 40% writing a check to the gold family?

[00:15:08]What would have been his minimum requirements for doing so? In my experience as a professional investor. I think the answer to that would be in what is now a power sharing arrangement with David Sullivan. I think it would have been sort of investment 101 minimum requirement for Kinsky to see the management team daytoday strengthened in the football club >> because there are enough vacancies there.

[00:15:36]>> Well, so who appoints them?

[00:15:37]>> Well, would you trust Sullivan to appoint those individuals? Well, particularly given that David Sullivan's trusted left tenant for over 40 years and a very highly regarded, grownup chief executive in Karen Brady has now left. So, at a bare minimum, Daniel Katinsky would want to see a topass chief executive replacing Karen to be the bridge between these two owners. And I would suggest equally a top class sporting director because as you know and as our audience know by now in my opinion um the optimum structure for a well-run club is to have hands-on owners available for rapid decision making and approval but with a day-to-day management team comprising an excellent coach, an excellent sporting director and an excellent chief executive. Yes, Arsenal today have that structure.

[00:16:31]>> That's quite a counterpoint on Sunday, isn't it?

[00:16:33]>> It is. Now, now, and what I'm saying to you is I think that's what I would expect Daniel Katinsky to require. This is a man who owns some of the biggest enterprises in Europe. He's made $10 billion as a professional investor, more than I ever made. I think he read the same textbooks. You need accountability.

[00:16:49]You need to invest in your t in your people. Management teams drive value creation. And there's a glaring hole with Karen's departure and there's a glaring need given this very unusual power sharing ownership structure. So I would expect sitting here in April 2026 in the next few weeks leading into this huge summer and I want to talk about that summer that there would be news coming out of West Ham on a permanent management structure. Why is it so important? Okay, let's go back to the numbers for a second.

[00:17:26]Whether West Ham stay up or go down, okay, this summer, the club has a significant cash hole, a significant funding need, and that arises from the fact that they've been losing money.

[00:17:44]They have maxed out on the credit card.

[00:17:48]I think that's the best way to think about it. They have a debt facility.

[00:17:51]Sorry, explain that to me because we've both been through the accounts. There are some worrying signs of >> There are Okay. Why do we know that this summer there's a need for significant investment? because the auditors told us so in the notes to the 2025 accounts, that section of accounts called the going concern test, where the auditors, the external accountants look at a business's commitments, their contractual obligations to spend money against their likely income. And where they see losses and where they see bank facilities already at their maximum, they will say to owners, we think without you putting money in, this business is in trouble and we're going to say that in our accounts and we need you to tell us you will support the business if you need to. And that's what we read in the going concern statement of West Ham. So Henry, what that means in practical terms is that that some combination of David Sullivan, Daniel Kinsky and the gold family had to write to their aud.

[00:19:07]And the if point is what is fascinating because the alternative to putting money in a shareholder writing a check is of course to sell assets to raise money.

[00:19:21]And it is crystal clear reading between the lines of those accounts. Henry, that plan A for West Ham this summer is the sale of players to drive cash in to meet their existing liabilities even if they stay up.

[00:19:39]>> Yes, thank you. That's the key point.

[00:19:41]This is from the 2025 accounts. Okay, referring to this summer where the working assumption is you stay in the Premier League. This is so important that West Ham fans understand this that if they go down all that happens is the cash need gets bigger.

[00:20:00]>> Can I say one thing about West Ham fans is that having spoken to them they are very aware of this. They because the fans organizations there there sort of 10 12 of them they are very up on they've got accountants working for them. They absolutely understand this.

[00:20:15]So, but you are saying that they've got huge issues regardless of what happens on Sunday.

[00:20:21]>> I am. Which are made much worse by relegation. Let's just do that. And I'm sorry to be, you know, a grim reaper. Uh >> go through the team sheet just crossing out names saying they're not going to be here next season.

[00:20:31]>> First thing I'm going to do is just this business, as we said, it did 225 million of turnover. It lost over 100 million pounds. actually it lost about3 million at the cash flow line but as I say with this huge amotization bill lost about £100 million by my maths and I think this is widely accepted if they are relegated then their revenues the three key revenue items it's relatively easy to compute how much the revenue goes down my estimates are along the following lines television money relatively easy if they do finish in the bottom then their TV income this year will be about 120 million. It was 132 last year and two years ago it was 170 but it's probably going to be 120 this year if they're third from bottom. Okay, in their first year in the championship that number drops to the parachute revenue of 49 plus about five of the EFL shared money. Okay, so 120 plays about 55. Okay, 65 million drop commercial.

[00:21:35]Just to give you one headline, a front of shirt deal in the Premier League with betting, which is what they've had.

[00:21:41]That's probably a 12 to5 million pound a year line for West Ham United in the Championship. They'll be lucky to get 1.5 million pounds for a front of shirt.

[00:21:52]And then of course the third element is match day. And this is a fascinating aspect of the West Ham story. And again, I'm sorry to be so negative about this, but sometimes in business, what is brilliantly successful with one context can hurt you when the context change.

[00:22:10]>> You're going to bring tourists into this, aren't you?

[00:22:13]>> I am. I'm going to >> We're talking match tickets here. We're talking who's going to go to games.

[00:22:18]>> Yeah, I I'm concerned because what I think West Ham have done brilliantly is a purely commercial matter. They have essentially capitalized on the fact they are in London on the end of a very good tube line in a massive stadium where if you are traveling to England from Tokyo, Beijing, New York, Seattle and everywhere in between and you fancy watching Premier League football, whoever you support, then you go on any tourist website and you can get yourself a shot at West Ham. Do you and I sitting here have been going to football matches for 50 years. Do we imagine that swavthes of tourists are going to be buying that excess capacity in the EFL and that the demand from extremely well-healed Premier League clubs playing away will be as great from the Championship? I somewhat doubt it. So my real fear is that attendance volume in that stadium, if they're relegated, will be meaningfully down and of course so will pricing be down. And the combination of reduced volume at lower prices is a real hit to your match day income. I think they do about 40 million of match day income that could be down 10 to 15 million quid. So add it all up and I am saying to you Henry sitting here today if they go down turnover probably drops by 90 to 100 million quid from 220 to maybe 130. And the question is, can you cut your costs by the same amount to protect your bottom line? And the answer is I can't see any scenario when you where you can cut your cost by that much. If every player has a 50% relegation clause, the maths I've looked at would suggest you might save 50 million on your wage bill. Half of your loss of revenue. Simple business math.

[00:24:07]100 million drop in revenue, 50 million drop in costs. you lose 50 million more than you currently lose >> and you lose good players though and then how do you replace them?

[00:24:20]>> Well, this comes back to really I think the essence of the Kinsky Sullivan strategic plan going forward. They've cleared the decks. They're now in this power sharing role. We've talked about the obvious priority to get the people right.

[00:24:37]>> Come on, give me some names. Who Who's they going to sell? Well, my point is simply that if you were a financial investor, and Katinsky is, and if you were David Sullivan, who we've observed already, you know, hasn't been writing huge checks as an owner of West Ham, I am convinced that they would rather generate cash from selling players than injecting cash themselves.

[00:24:59]>> So, Fernandez, >> look, I think you can go through >> Somerville.

[00:25:04]>> Yeah, I did some rough math and I'm not a sporting director and these are just my >> You love maths. Um, okay. So, when I went through it last night, I looked at the current first team squad and they they've spent about £310 million assembling that squad. £310 million. By the way, it's well over that in as you said in the last three or four years, but they've sold some players for big money. Cudis has already gone and Declan obviously, but they didn't pay for Declan, but they've spent more.

[00:25:34]But the current first team squad, the squad available this weekend cost over £300 million. Now the 64 million, well the the 250 million question is, what do I think that squad is worth today in a scenario where they're somewhere between needing to sell, being forced to sell, which is never great for top dollar. The number I got to was maybe 250 million of those on those players. And there's a long tale. So listen, please don't shoot me down. These are just these are just estimates. But Fernandez, 21-year-old out of Southampton, paid I think just under 40 million. You might get 60 million. He's had a good season. Perfect age and profile for the Premier League.

[00:26:20]That's a big number. So I'm trying to be optimistic here, not pessimistic. Jared Bowen in the books at very little. You tell me. But Danny D might have a word on that one.

[00:26:30]>> He would. Look, my point is let's say they sold their four most valuable players. Yeah.

[00:26:36]>> Okay. Their four most valuable players, which in the transfer market, which probably are Fernandez, Bowenville, Somerville, maybe Kilman. I know he's not had a good season, but >> paid quite a lot of money for him.

[00:26:48]>> Some people talk about Jif. If you talk to fans, they think he might cast a bit older, paid 25 for him. If they sold their five best players, I have them raising sort of 1601 170 million pounds.

[00:27:01]Okay, real money. But don't forget, don't forget remember they got a cash hole this summer. When you sell players, you don't get paid 170 on the nail. You get paid it over three years. So, let's make it simp. Let's say they generate 180 million of player sales this summer.

[00:27:20]That's a big number. That's clearing out a lot of their current first team.

[00:27:24]>> But that is what 60 up front.

[00:27:26]>> Yeah. It it it makes a big dent in the cash needed this summer. A big dent.

[00:27:33]Okay. Sell the whole lot over 200 million. You probably clear out the need for the shareholders to put any money in. This is what I want our audience to focus on. It's like the classic business football tradeoff. And I'd love your view on the pure football aspect of of what what we call churn could mean. But here's the dilemma. I'll set it up for you. If I'm an owner and I don't really want to be putting my hand in my trousers this summer, I'll sell as many players as I can to raise as much catch to fill the cash hole this summer. Okay?

[00:28:08]And I've said to you that could be 180,200 million pounds of sales. Four, five, seven or eight footballers.

[00:28:16]But surely if I do that and by the way then have to buy seven or eight players for much lower prices on those lower wages and lesser players >> and therefore lesser players. What am I doing to my prospects of being promoted back at the first opportunity?

[00:28:33]>> Well, you're obviously limiting it. I mean there are elements of it now goes down to eighth with the playoffs. So you've got that sort of slight extra chance of getting out. I'm just looking about what it's going to be like for them if they do go down to the uh the championship. I think that they are going to lose some of their crown jewels, but from what you're saying is that they're going to lose them anyway.

[00:28:54]I'm saying that somewhere between a minimum of four or five and a maximum of eight or nine sale of those players is required at very good prices in a situation where if relegated it's never easy to get top dollar because this the the the vultures will circle and will start low and if they don't go down then the problem is how do they stay up next season if their best players leave anyway in the Premier League. Either way, the pure playing side of things at West Ham, I think looks really, really tricky this summer.

[00:29:29]>> The third element of your beloved Golden Triangle is the manager. Where are we with Nuno in terms of staying going if they go down?

[00:29:40]>> Oh, what a question.

[00:29:41]>> Because you rate him, I mean, I've heard you talk.

[00:29:43]>> I do.

[00:29:44]>> And you you consider him a mid-table Premier League manager.

[00:29:48]Look, the most important thing is what do I think Nuno thinks of himself? And I am absolutely certain. And and by the way, he is the first client of the world's most powerful agent, Gor Mendes.

[00:30:00]And I'm telling you right now, knowing George as well as I do, you know, he believes that Nuno is an elite coach at Premier League level. and he will be certain certain that Nuno's name would appear on any short list for a Premier League vacancy either this summer or certainly first cab off the rank in autumn when a team is is behind the eightball. George Mendes will believe that Nuno will be in demand in the Premier League.

[00:30:30]>> So not an EFL manager.

[00:30:32]>> I don't think so. Now I've seen media speculation that there is a mutual break clause. Okay. Ex >> sorry explain that to me. How does that work?

[00:30:42]>> Okay. I'll try. So again speculation.

[00:30:45]I think that if I had been in the room recruiting Nuno earlier this season.

[00:30:52]I think it is possible that a conversation along these lines would have gone on between between West Ham Nuno and George Mendes. Look, Nuno and Mendes would have said we have to address the scenario that we go down.

[00:31:08]You know, Nuno's going to be going to West Ham on seven or eight million pounds a year a salary.

[00:31:12]>> As much as that, >> I think so. And the market price for a Championship manager is an absolute fraction of that.

[00:31:19]>> Which one are we looking at between one and two?

[00:31:21]>> Yeah, one. One for unless they're coming out of the Premier League and there's a special case. One and below. West Ham might be saying obviously if we go down you'll need to reduce your salary. Not sure Nuno would have wanted to agree to a relegation clause. Would he really want to be earning a fraction of his market value in the EFL? Not sure. West Ham would have said, "If you go down, we'd love you to stay, but we can't pay you the same." Maybe we should just both agree that if we go down, you can leave without any compensation if we prefer, and you can walk away without owing us any compensation if you want to walk away. A mutual walk away clause. I could see that having evolved out of a negotiation that would have started with relegation clause but would have ended with probably on both sides. You'll need a manager on much lower salary and I'll want to get myself a job in the Premier League.

[00:32:10]>> And a lesser manager though we're talking about the almost the degrading element of the squad and now also of the dugout. Well, if that speculation proves to be true, in other words, if there is a walk away and Nuno chooses to execute it, or if West Ham say in the absence of a relegation clause, we can't afford you. There has been messaging coming out they'd like him to stay, but I doubt they'd like him to stay on 8 million.

[00:32:34]And I doubt, and this is my key observation, linking to the summer we're facing up to on this show, of major major playing staff restructuring.

[00:32:46]I I can't imagine Nuno wants to oversee mass exits, mass signings if he can step into a Premier League club on big money where it's all ready to go. It just doesn't feel right.

[00:32:58]>> It's a pity because even though the results haven't been great and they've had one or two poor ones, actually, you got the impression that he was doing an okay job. Until that heavy defeat at the weekend to Brenford and that comfortable win by Spurs at Villa, I absolutely thought it was 50/50 and probably Spurs.

[00:33:17]>> I've got to ask you this. Is there a possibility of West Ham if they do go down doing a Leicester City?

[00:33:25]>> It's probably the first time we've talked about the numbers and I haven't started with financial fair play regulations.

[00:33:34]That is because what we call in finance the liquidity issues, the need for cash is a miles bigger problem and issue for West Ham Football Club than worrying right now about compliance with financial regulation. That said, there is no doubt in my mind that they will be sailing incredibly close to the wind on that if they go down. Uh if they stay up and do some player sales, they should be fine. But I think in we've seen the fierceness with which EFL authorities pursue clubs and yeah I think that could be pretty naughty. What I think is a much bigger concern actually uh even than that um although they're completely inextricably linked because obviously if you do get whacked in the EFL then that makes it infinitely harder to get out of that league. But I think this tradeoff between the volume of player sales and signings to reduce the amount of money that the shareholders have to find and the impact that has on your prospects for being repromoted quickly. That's their biggest choice as a pair of owners. I'd be fascinated to know what David Sullivan and Daniel Kinsky think about that. And this is the issue from their perspective. We've talked about the need for liquidity this this summer whether they go down or not. If they go down, I've talked about maybe 50 million pounds of losses in the championship that they'll also need to pay for. And of course, Henry, it compounds. In other words, if they don't bounce straight back up, and I do take your point about eight places, not six. So, they've got, you know, an increased mathematical probability of coming out of the championship next year if they go down.

[00:35:19]But still, if they do not, and we've seen this year it isn't a gimme, then guess what? Those cash issues become even worse for the owners cuz basically every year a team like West Ham with a Premier League cost base, Premier League administration, Premier League stadium is in the Championship, they lose large amounts of money. Regular Champion Championship clubs lose 2030 million. I think West Ham would lose more than that in that league, which means more money for the shareholders. So, the stakes cannot be underestimated. It is absolutely vital that they balance the books, the finances with the need to get promoted back at the earliest opportunity >> if they go down.

[00:36:08]>> If they go down, I think that's one of the hardest tradeoffs I've looked at in the last few months in the Premier League. Can I just ask you one of the repercussions of relegation and you when you went to Villa I think it was about or two three years after they did have a painful relegation.

[00:36:23]>> It was um yes I joined them at the beginning of their third year out their last year of parachute >> and they did have a redundancy program as the majority of clubs do when they go down. What does that do to a club and what would that do to West Ham? Are you automatically saying we've got to get rid of 10% of staff? Not that you can necessarily put a figure on it, but they presume it's going to cut to the core of this club, isn't it? Relegation. I I must say it is one of the reasons why I started with, as I always do, the people side of the equation. And I said to you, I see a glaring need not only for a professional football person called a sporting director to oversee the volume of transfer business, but a really professional chief executive because you are quite right. When I got to Villa, you could feel two years after that relegation the impact on the staff of major cost reductions that that club had taken immediately upon relegation and I I'm sorry to have to observe this but when I was studying West Ham's numbers in advance of this show there has been a really dramatic increase in headcount both on the football side but on the administration and business side as well. Really meaningful as they have sought to create a billion pound football club with with you know this incredibly strategic opportunity to be in a big stadium in London competing at the top end of the Premier League. It's perfectly normal that they would invest in people to drive commercial growth match day experiences as well as the football side. Sadly, I would imagine in a relegation scenario, and maybe even not in a relegation scenario, given the numbers, I would expect to see the club having to tighten its belt on the number of employees this summer.

[00:38:19]>> Let's take this forward.

[00:38:20]>> I'm sorry to say that.

[00:38:21]>> Yeah, let's let's take this forward.

[00:38:23]What are your conclusions? What do you feel is going to happen?

[00:38:29]>> Well, I um I fear the worst. I fear the worst because I I have to say I listen I I don't think this our audience particularly cares for me to be in the football result prediction business but on balance it does feel to me as though deserby has turned a massive corner at Spurs. The form of leads and forest has been absolutely remarkable which has been depressing for West Ham because their form had been pretty good and they now certainly look favorites to go down let's put it that way and I think this weekend the stakes are absolutely enormous because let's face it playing uh Arsenal on the back of an enormously you know rewarding semi-final victory in Europe that looks a real tough game and um >> almost symbolic with Declan Rice.

[00:39:14]>> Yeah. And um so look I think we'll know a lot more in a week's time but I think the point I want to really make here is that this club has been you know pushed to the limit in terms of transfer spending chasing the dream of success.

[00:39:32]They haven't had great success in the recruitment business and >> they haven't had great leadership.

[00:39:38]>> Well they certainly haven't got a lot to show for enormous investment and you know fans want both. They want they want owners who spend lots of money. They want owners who spend it well. They want success. And yes, they want >> I think they want communication and better governance. And I think the board have let them down on that. I think that's very clear. And it' be interesting to see if there are any more protests whether it's the the chorus of disapproval or whether it goes further than that and you have sympathy with with West Ham fans because of what's happened to their club. Do you just finally on this do you think Katinsky in a year's time, two years time is the sole owner of West Ham United?

[00:40:15]>> That is that is at an utterly critical question. In a downside scenario, doomsday scenario even where where they drop into the championship and struggle to get out of it because the surgery they've had to take to the squad is so extreme they don't quite get the formula right. as you say, with lesser players, maybe with a lesser coach. That's a scenario where um in the end something we'll have to give because David Sullivan and Daniel Katinsky writing checks indefinitely in a lossmaking proposition in the championship simply isn't something that either of those guys will want to do. I didn't say and I will say because many people have asked me this, do I think that happens this summer? I don't. I think this this realignment of the shareholding, moving both up to 40 in power sharing is a clear signal that they're in it for the long haul together, starting with this very tricky summer and that plan A will be player sales. Plan B will be for them to support those player sale cash proceeds with their own money. and then all roads lead to trying to secure repromotion quickly which will limit the cash damage on the club and get them back on track. That is the plan and if that plan looks like it's working then I think we can imagine that Sullivan and Katinsky will sit down again in a year's time say that worked. We're now back in the Premier League. Where do we go from here? That might be the natural next point to talk about the shareholding. If I was a betting man, you would think in the end a man of his wealth who's had loads of time to get on top of the investment probably would take out a man who by then might be, you know, nearing 80. Uh that would probably be the most likely scenario.

[00:42:10]>> And anyone who if there's anyone who can rise to the top of the pyramid, it's a Sphinx. So let us hope that he does it.

[00:42:18]>> That is a nice point to end. And I hope you enjoyed the show. Please remember to subscribe and we'll see you next week.

[00:42:26]>> See you next week.