Something Big Is Building Beneath the Market… | Gareth Soloway

追加: 2026-06-07

[00:00:06]Literally the whole rest of the world could be falling apart. As long as the US economy appears stable and earnings are coming in strong, then the stock market will go higher. And so it's almost like, you know, if everything around your house is burning, as long as your house is okay and your house isn't on fire, you're good. And that's the way investors are viewing it right now that again, we haven't seen a major slowdown in the US economy. the labor market is kind of stagnant, but it's not like falling apart. And earnings generally because of AI, they're coming in pretty strong as well. And that's the kicker.

[00:00:39]But the second you see any sign of a weak economic activity or earnings misses, the stock market has a ton of downside to it. The potential is for a massive, massive decline when the US economy finally stutters.

[00:00:52]>> Everyone is talking about AI, record-breaking stock prices, and endless market gains. But Gareth Soloway believes investors may be ignoring some major warning signs. Drawing comparisons to past bubbles like the dot era, he breaks down why current valuations concern him, why he expects opportunities in gold and other hard assets, and how history suggests that periods of extreme optimism often end with painful corrections. If you're investing for the years ahead, this is a perspective you won't want to miss.

[00:01:22]We've seen this change in gold ever since that rally that basically started at the beginning of the year, the final what we would call a blowoff top. People started to jump into gold, not because it was a defensive play, but more because it was a momentum play. And anytime you have an asset that is more of a safe haven asset where it starts to become a momentum play, it tells you that the structure or the reason it goes up or down is now changing. And ultimately, it has to flush down enough until it washes out those weak hands that bought it for the wrong reason. For example, a lot of your listeners bought gold like I did years ago because it's a safe haven. It's a way to protect ourselves against fiat currencies and lots of other shocks. I do think that there's potential for a wash out later this year back to about the 3500 level.

[00:02:11]And at that point, that's where at least I've already isolated down where I am going to be buying long-term positions.

[00:02:17]Right? So again, I remain a long-term gold bull, meaning that if you look at the government spending and what's going on in the world and the fiat currencies and the dollar slowly being devalued and probably slowly ddollarization as well, it makes sense to buy gold. For me though, I want to make sure I get it as close to the lows on this pullback as possible. And for me, that's 3500. And this is the interesting thing is a lot of the same reasons a lot of people like myself were buying gold years ago and even more recently, those reasons are still intact, right? Again, you look at all the issues that are going on and we're talking globally here. The debt loads that are being put on so many countries, so many citizens. So, I think the underlying factors are there. It's more that first thing you mentioned which is that you have this period where generally the investors that buy momentum they don't have the staying power to stick around in a trade when it gets boring or if it slowly drifts lower and when they start to unload it then pushes that sell pressure even more. Now granted we could still say you have sovereign nations still buying Federal Reserve banks are still buying gold.

[00:03:21]That's absolutely true but there's still a lot of weak hands that are in gold that could cause it to kind of correct back down. And I would even say that we have to remember that when things get bad, meaning like COVID, remember 2020 of March, even though CO was the obvious reason why gold should spike, when fear absolutely hit and the panic was in the markets, even gold sold off. And so you might see some sort of event where the stock market really gets scared and that could be the final drive to 3500 and then that's where you start to see the reversion trade and it start to trade back up. I would argue this and this is a very interesting aspect that we're seeing as essentially the US financial state deteriorates more and more the bull markets in gold are elongating right so if we look at that one in the 70s late7s early 80s it was shortest generally the US had their fiscal ship in order right but when you look at the 2011 top that was just after co when the Fed was really printing the most we got the biggest parabolic move and then obviously what we've seen more recently is arguably, you know, you could make a case that the bull market started maybe at the lows in 2018. I would argue more in 2022, but this one could last honestly all the way into 2030 or beyond. And I think that again goes to that elongated cycle in these bull markets of gold. And listen, if somehow miraculously the US gets their fiscal house in order and the world starts figuring it out, okay, maybe gold isn't the place to be for the longer term. But let's be fair, what are the odds that that's actually going to happen? I think again that longer term cycle is probably intact. I think again we just have to be a little bit more careful with silver as it's obviously somewhat more industrial and so it has more of a sway based on how the economy is doing and I'm still looking for sub $50 silver and I know people don't want to hear that but you can kind of make a case for it right I mean here we are in an economy that this oil trade might start slowing the US economy and the global economy and then also if silver and gold and the metals are going to see a decline from kind of flushing out the weak hands that combination could easily push us below that $50 per ounce level. And I think that's kind of where I'm eyeing here.

[00:05:29]And I know it's amazing because you know just earlier this year we were at 120 on silver. But historically silver is very very volatile like this. I think the biggest thing on inflation is to understand that inflation if it was a one or two week or even a month shock of oil going to $100 a barrel, it will have a minimal impact, right? Because producers can kind of wait that out with inventory and things like that. But now we're going into, you know, month three of oil being $90 plus. There's absolutely going to be a factor of inflation. And remember how inflation works right >> in the middle of the discussion. Derek Soloway shifts his focus to the assets and economic trends he believes investors should be watching most closely. While he remains strongly bullish on gold over the long term, driven by rising government debt, ongoing currency debasement, and global darization efforts, he cautions that gold may first experience a meaningful pullback before its next major advance.

[00:06:24]Rather than chasing prices higher, he's waiting for better entry points. He also explains why inflation may be far from over. According to Soloway, sustained high oil prices don't impact consumers immediately. Instead, higher energy costs gradually work their way through the economy, creating inflationary pressures that can take months to fully appear in everyday prices. Another key point is Bitcoin's role as a market signal. Historically, risk assets often begin showing weakness before the broader stock market turns lower.

[00:06:57]Soloway believes Bitcoin's recent behavior could be hinting that investor confidence is not as strong as stock market highs suggest. When viewed through a historical lens, these patterns are not unusual. Gold has frequently experienced sharp corrections before continuing powerful bull markets.

[00:07:16]Inflation has often emerged with significant delays after commodity price spikes and divergences between risk assets and equities have repeatedly appeared before major market reversals.

[00:07:27]For investors, the lesson is clear.

[00:07:30]Understanding these historical patterns may provide valuable clues about what could come next.

[00:07:35]>> So prices go up for the wholesale numbers, meaning the PPI producer price index, and eventually those producers say, "Hey, we can't eat this cost because our profits are getting, you know, screwed." And so we have to pass it along. And so there's this kind of chain reaction that's like a 6 to9 month chain reaction from whenever oil prices finally come down to where we see the end of inflation. And so you know for a lot of people out there they might be saying yeah prices at the pump are a lot higher but we're not really seeing it everywhere else yet. It's coming assuming oil doesn't come down very very quickly and likely it's too late at this point already. So, I think that's something that I would just make everyone aware of is that it's not like an instantaneous oil falls to $60 a barrel and there's no inflation left. It still will be passed through. And one thing that I hate about the system is that once producers raise prices, generally they're not lowering prices, right? We see this at the pump, right?

[00:08:26]Where oil goes up or gasoline goes up and it'll go up overnight, you know, but then when oil or gas comes down, it takes months for that price to creep back down. And I do worry about that as well, the stress on the consumer. Part of that is just understanding the president's psychology, right? So, as you trade the markets, you know, anytime we get a big down day in the markets, you're guaranteeing like right after hours or the next morning, there's going to be some positive, you know, social media post that tries to boost the markets. He's a president who does not like the stock market going down. He's a president who wants to be viewed positively based on the economy. And so, you know, he doesn't want to keep oil prices up for very long. And the other thing to remember is when I was an early trader, all the top oil traders would always say the best cure for high oil prices is high oil prices. And what they meant by that is that when oil goes up, it kills demand, right? So all of a sudden, people are paying a lot more at the gas pump. All these other prices are going up and they start pulling back on spending, which slows the economy, which then reduces the demand for oil. And so these $200, $250 targets on oil, I don't see them happening unless, you know, we really did get into a World War II type situation, especially with the midterms coming up, I think it's again more likely we're headed lower. What we're seeing here is this is your dot high of the stock market value in terms of the money supply. And we're literally right there again telling us that potentially we're in a bubble here, an AI bubble, just like we were in the dot era. And I think if you remember, if you traded through the 992000 bubble and then the collapse, the NASDAQ dropped about 78%.

[00:09:58]I don't want to go out on a limb and predict that cuz that's a crazy move.

[00:10:01]But I do want investors to kind of be wary here that valuations are stretched.

[00:10:06]No doubt about it. We did see Bitcoin top out in October and then we had a top in the markets in October and then that rollover. Then the stock market zoomed to all-time highs and Bitcoin has bounced here, but it's still showing relative strength. And so, you know, a lot of people would say there's a divergence here. I would almost wonder if the rally in the stock market is not a true rally and kind of want what we call a blowoff top, that final burst of energy, and maybe Bitcoin, which is the better risk indicator here. and the fact that it's bounced so shallowly and starting to turn back down. That could be a pre- signal of a rollover coming in the stock market of significance. So again, I would say still pay attention because it has been through its history a very good leading indicator for the stock market. It does make me concerned that Kevin Worsh is saying what he has to say to you know make sure that he gets the position and gets voted by Congress to confirmed as the head the Fed chair. But the other thing that concerns me too is when he was testifying in front of Congress for his confirmation hearing, he said about changing the way inflation is monitored or how the numbers come out. In other words, what he was saying is that what the Fed needs to do is throw out any outlier numbers. So let's say oil jumps 30% in a month or 40%, his policy he would want to institute would be to say, "Okay, we're not going to include that in inflation. We're going to focus on everything that's kind of stable." And that's concerning because as a citizen of the world and and of the US that's not your real true read of inflation and we know that. And so I think it's a little disingenuous, a little bit of a concern that that's coming up as like kind of like fudging the numbers a little bit. We'll see how it plays out.

[00:11:45]But again, I am a little concerned until we really see him for a few months as the Fed chair. There's so much push to be fully invested and leveraged in the market. And I think, you know, people will say, well, the dollar is declining in value. And I think it's important to put that in perspective. So the stock market could drop 10% like we saw just a few weeks ago before this latest rally and maybe the dollar declines half a percent, right? And so, you know, people have to make the judgment of saying in the short term, if the stock market, let's say, is going to correct 20% and you have your money in cash and let's say gold is still going to go down to let's say 3,900 or 3500, it's better to be in cash or in bonds and just make a small amount of money or even lose 1% of that while everything else falls 10 or 20 or 30%. And then you have a lot of dry powder to then put to work. And that's kind of where I am at this point.

[00:12:36]I'll either short the market or I'm just waiting patiently in cash or in treasuries waiting for that next opportunity. And I do believe it will come faster than we all think, whether it happens by year end or early 2027.

[00:12:48]But we can see the writing on the wall through some of these charts I've shown you. And I'd rather play it safe than be sorry. The key message from Soloway is not to chase markets at elevated levels.

[00:12:59]He believes investors should focus on capital preservation, maintain flexibility, and wait patiently for better opportunities. Rather than being fully invested, he favors holding cash, treasuries, or defensive positions until valuations become more attractive.

[00:13:16]History shows that some of the best investment opportunities emerge after periods of excessive optimism. Whether the correction arrives later this year or in the coming years, Soloway believes preparation today will create advantages tomorrow. Message to viewers, markets reward patience more than excitement.

[00:13:35]Don't let fear of missing out drive your decisions. Study history, manage risk, and remember that preserving capital during uncertain periods can be just as important as making gains during bull markets.

[00:13:47]The next great opportunity often appears when most investors are focused on the wrong