Huge News From LBMA & Comex! If You Own Gold & Silver, Watch Now - Andy Schectman & Bill Holter

Added: 2026-05-09

[00:00:00]When silver got crushed in the end of January, February, the Bank of International Settlements came out and said this was not a fundamental move.

[00:00:09][music] This had nothing to do with fundamentals changing. This is largely a result of two things happening in Comex on Comex. Number one, every year in January levered ETFs have a have a a mandate a balance mandate that they have to adhere to in their prospectus. So it's it's notorious the first two weeks of January you get all sorts of rebalancing that is done on all sorts of ETFs at different commodities. And so they had to sell with with the price going [music] up every week from December, you know, on November, December on just flying up, they had to rebalance. Silver still got slight backwardation, but I mean all all the lease levels, all the borrow rates, everything's elevated.

[00:00:49]It it just reeks of a massive short squeeze. The silver market keeps sending signals that do not match surface level price action. Recent volatility, especially in the sharp drop earlier in the year, seems driven less by weakening fundamentals than by structural forces in the paper market. Beneath all this noise, tightening supply, elevated lease rates, and persistent backwardation are quietly building pressure. These conditions are not typical in a weak market. They often come before significant repricing.

[00:01:22]Andy Schectman, a well-known voice in the precious metals, and Bill Holter, a long-term macro analyst, explain the situation. They say investor are seeing a gap between paper trading and the real world supply.

[00:01:34]Comex driven moves and ETF rebalancing cycles create artificial price suppression.

[00:01:39]According to their view, fundamentals like tight inventories, strong demand, and stress in physical delivery remain intact.

[00:01:47]As these distortions persist, the setup becomes increasingly asymmetric. If the paper market loses control, even briefly, the price move could be aggressive. That's the core tension right now. Now, we present the clips from the interview. Before we discuss this, please hit the like button, subscribe to the channel, and ring the bell icon. Thank you, and enjoy the video. And it's happened every single time that there's been a war in the Gulf. I've been doing this since the first Gulf War under Bush number one.

[00:02:18]The theory, right, wrong, or indifferent, is that there is a rush to dollars.

[00:02:24]The dollar or spikes for liquidity reasons. Oil spikes because of the disruption. Every every country uses dollars to buy oil, so they have to sell their stuff to get dollars, which pushes the dollar up, pushes that stuff down, so they can buy oil, pushing oil up. So, oil goes up, the dollar goes up, everything else gets sold off. I used to think that I called it mope, as Jim Sinclair used to call it, management of perception economics. That why would anyone sell their gold? But, let's just take it for what it is. Okay, so they're selling it to get liquid. What I find very interesting, I'm going to actually read you the exact numbers because it's important that I [clears throat] do this the right way.

[00:03:08]In terms of the numbers, let's start with silver. When silver got crushed in the end of January, February, the Bank of International Settlements came out and said this was not a fundamental move. This had nothing to do with fundamentals changing. This is largely a result of two things happening in Comex on Comex. Number one, every year in January, levered ETFs have a have a a mandate, a balanced mandate that they have to adhere to in their prospectus. So, it's it's notorious. The first 2 weeks of January, you get all sorts of rebalancing that is done on all sorts of ETFs at different commodities.

[00:03:46]And so, they had to sell with with price going up every week from December, you know, on November, December, on just flying up, they had to rebalance the first and second week of January. Had all these ETFs selling into the market, which begat selling, which begat selling. At the same time, the CME Group raised margins 300% from $15,000 approximately in December 1st to hedge 5,000 oz of silver to $54,000 for that same contract 6 weeks later at the exact same time they were rebalancing the ETFs. So, it's as if it was it was structural, it was synthetic, it was orchestrated by margin increases and rebalancing of ETFs that guaranteed massive selling, which squeezed all of the speculators.

[00:04:31]They all got margin called as the price was going down against their blown positions and and margin rates were going up. They had to post way more money, way more. That's what screwed up the entire industry, it screwed up the refining industry.

[00:04:43]So, it was structural according to the BIS, the most powerful bank in the world, not fundamental, but one that was happening in January, February, March, silver imports in February and March were up 78% month-over-month to a record 836 tons in March. Was the February was the all-time record, March was higher than that at 836 tons. Now, just to give people an idea, and it was 173% above its 10-year seasonal average year-to-date imports in silver in China are at 1,626 tons, the highest level on record ever.

[00:05:26]Now, just to make people understand how big that is, a metric ton is 30 32,150 oz, I believe, times 800 times 1,626.

[00:05:40]They've imported about just over 52 million oz of silver since the beginning of the year. Last year, China was an export nation, a silver the export, largely an export. In November of last year, they said, "We are no longer going to export any of our domestic mine silver." They're the number two largest miner in the world. And we are going to restrict exports, they said, in January in retaliation to the US making silver critical. So, not only that, they came out and said, "We're going to restrict sending out" What's it called? Um acid, hydrochloric acid, which is used in copper mining, copper refining, and silver is largest byproduct. It's large the largest amount of silver coming to market is a byproduct of copper mining.

[00:06:20]So, you won't have a positive nation a nation that was actually exporter now that is an importer restricting exports.

[00:06:28]They were the largest refiner are the largest refiner of silver dory in the world, and then they would export it back out. They're going to restrict it.

[00:06:35]And now they're a net importer, importing more in the first couple of months when it got its teeth kicked in that in any time in history ever. And the same thing is true with gold. Uh their gold numbers were up to the most The month of March was the highest import numbers that we've seen since 2024.

[00:06:52]These banks, these countries are using and the central banks in in in particular have been using the drawdown that was synthetically orchestrated by margin increases and ETF rebalancing to accumulate. Everyone talked about Turkey selling their gold. No one talked about that they'd started buying it again here just this last week. They bought 30.7 tons over the previous week. And and so they've accumulated 36.4 tons since they sold. So, you have all of these things happening. And then in the US, we talked about in February when the price got clobbered in silver, someone stood for delivery of what Something's yeah.

[00:07:31]silver agreement, but 39 million ounces left mics. Instead of the uh futures market controlling the price, the physical market will control the price as it should. It's the tail wagging the dog right now and to the vested interest of the West when you look at these exchanges around the globe, they're largely cash and carry. Give me your money, you'll get the the stuff. And and that's what it will go to. It will it will have a real reflection. We don't know what real price discovery is because of the suppression of these commodities that the only reason it's breaking is that these countries now have enough money, enough coordination, enough sophistication to stand for delivery. No one ever did that. Less than 1% of all contracts stood for delivery. Now there's a ton of them and that's how they're winning. They'll be like, "Yeah, I'd rather not play the paper game. We'll take delivery, please." And you know, when the mar people on margin are getting crushed and the price is falling and they're getting killed, the sovereign nations come in with no margin and say, "Okay, we'll take all of it. Thank you." And off they go. Now again, I'm being Both analysts argue the early year decline in silver was mostly mechanical.

[00:08:37]Leveraged ETFs rebalanced at the start of the year after strong upside move.

[00:08:42]This forced selling caused temporary pressure regardless of fundamentals.

[00:08:46]Comex action amplified the move making weakness look worse.

[00:08:51]The data tells a different story. High lease rates and borrowing costs chose scarcity, not abundance. Backwardation means spot prices are higher than future prices pointing to immediate demand.

[00:09:02]These conditions usually align with tight supply, not falling value. If these signals stay while price drop, it points to structural distortions, not real weakness. The takeaway is clear.

[00:09:14]There is underlying market stress, not stability. Now, let's get back to the interview. Gold was overbought. Silver was more overbought than it was in 1980 back at the peak. And what you see with both of them are are high-level consolidations.

[00:09:28]The paper trade is waning and the physical market is growing.

[00:09:33]Uh the physical markets were growing. Just look at what the BRICS are doing. I mean, they're opening storage facilities, refineries. They're very serious about accumulating both gold and silver, and it makes sense because you know, for years and years they had I guess the metaphor is tons. They had tons of dollars on their books, um and now they're adding tons of real money on their balance sheet. Silver still got slight backwardation, but I mean, all of all the lease levels, all the the borrow rates, everything's elevated. It it just reeks of a massive short squeeze. Well, obviously price tells you that they're they're losing control, but let's not even talk about price.

[00:10:18]Um we did mention that we're in a structural deficit. We've had a supply and demand deficit for 5 years, and that's what happens when you get a a small uh a small market size-wise as far as dollar amounts. I mean, the total production globally is only like $30 billion a year.

[00:10:38]Uh but when you get a a small market that's easy to manipulate, and if you're constantly manipulating to the downside and suppressing the price, what that does is it it makes it much more difficult for producers to earn a profit, so they mine less silver. So, you know, a direct consequence is the fact that we're in a structural uh supply deficit.

[00:11:03]Other things to look at, you can look at the lease rate on silver, you can look at the the lease rate, the amount of shorts available on SLV, which is strictly paper. That's not uh not actual physical silver. But the the rates to borrow um they're it's blowing the shorts. The the shorts are being blown up. This is for non non-IRAs. In an IRA, you've got to do a product that's 99.9 uh pure.

[00:11:31]Mhm. Junk silver, I've been an advocate of junk silver for the last 10 plus years now. It's the smallest denomination of silver.

[00:11:40]In other words, 14 dimes equals 1 oz.

[00:11:43]So, I think it's a $1.38 equals 1 oz.

[00:11:45]Mhm. Um so, that gives you 14 transactions. In a system down scenario, if you're going to barter, now you've got the smallest unit of silver. It's recognizable cuz everybody knows what a dime or quarter looks like. And as long as it says 1964 or earlier, you know it's 90% silver. It can't be counterfeited because if somebody comes to you with a bright, shiny, brand new dime or quarter, it's probably fake because junk circulated for years and years and years. It was in people's pockets. It should be scratched. It should be dirty. And on top of that, it is US mint lineage coin. Now, the reason I wanted to talk today about junk is because the the pricing on junk versus other forms of silver have temporary temporarily collapsed. Um I think dealers are bidding four and five dollars under spot if you go to sell it.

[00:12:39]And you can buy it at at spot, uh maybe 25, 50 cents over spot. It's the cheapest form of silver available right now. The reason being, back in the late '70s and the early '80s, I'm not going to say it was the only means, but the primary means of Americans uh that wanted to buy silver, the junk silver, that was really all there was available for investors. So, you had uh I don't know. Well, you've had years since then, too. But, you had five or 10 years there where people were accumulating silver.

[00:13:18]They saw the $50 peak. You had some buyers, of course, at at that level or in the '40s. And they had they hung on for 20, 30 years plus.

[00:13:29]What's happened is a lot of that legacy silver, when the price got to 50 bucks, people started selling. People and and large hordes had have been sold.

[00:13:41]What's happened is the dealers don't want to hold all of that as as inventory. So, if they're bidding 5%, 7%, 9% under spot, they take that junk in, they send it to a refiner, they refine the silver out of it, and then they sell it that silver on the spot market, and that's how they make their profit. The problem long term, now this is a short-term problem because refiners are backed up, some refiners are even refusing to take more junk in. They're backed up. But, once this backlog gets done, the the discount will abate, it'll come back to spot or above spot, and going forward, there's way less junk silver left in existence cuz it was it got melted down.

[00:14:30]So, if you're buying silver today and it's not an IRA account, it's foolish to not buy junk silver. It's the best form for an American to own, and it's the cheapest. What makes this setup particularly compelling is the convergence of multiple pressure points.

[00:14:46]On one side, institutional mechanisms, ETFs, derivatives, and futures continue to exert short-term control over price direction. On the other hand, the physical market is signaling strain through delivery concerns, rising premiums, and persistent demand. This divergence cannot sustain indefinitely.

[00:15:06]Both analysts say the balance will not shift gradually. History shows markets under this tension resolve with sharp moves. If physical demand stay high and the trust in the paper mechanism continues to fall, the pricing could be significant. No one promises exact targets. Their tone suggests current prices do not show the real story.

[00:15:28]Long-term positioning is critical. The market is not just reacting to headlines. It faces a deep imbalance.

[00:15:35]Early recognition of this gap may help investor when a change comes. Share your thoughts in the comment section below.

[00:15:42]If you find this video helpful, please hit the like button, subscribe to the channel, and ring the bell icon. Thanks for watching.