Something WEIRD Is Happening To Orange County Real Estate!

Added: 2026-05-30

[00:00:00]Everyone's asking the same question right now. Is 2026 the worst possible time to buy a house in Orange County? In this video, I'm going to show you the real math behind buying in Orange County [music] in 2026 versus what it would look like if you were to wait, what waiting actually costs you, and most importantly, who should absolutely >> [music] >> not buy this year, and who should seriously consider moving forward. I'm Yurie, and I've been helping individuals and families buy and sell across Orange County [music] for years. My whole approach is built around what's actually happening right now. But before I do get into the numbers, I want to tell you about a conversation I had recently [music] because, honestly, it's the reason why I'm even making this video. I met someone recently who'd actually been looking at homes in Irvine back in 2022, [music] at the craze, and then through 2023 as it was cooling down. And they were pre-approved, ready to go, but [music] every headline was screaming bubble to them. So, they waited. They waited for prices to drop, they waited for rates to fall, and 3 later, they were still renting. So, we did the math together on the same type of home they'd been looking at, and it had [music] 15% appreciation, roughly $180,000 in equity [music] that they never earned, plus 3 years of rent that built nothing. Now, that same home cost more to get into, and when they saw the numbers, finally something clicked.

[00:01:21]They're house hunting with me now because waiting cost them [music] before, and they don't want to make that same mistake twice. And they're not alone. That same conversation is happening [music] all over Orange County right now. There's a lot of people stuck on the sidelines, and they're just waiting for a signal, but unfortunately, that signal may never come. Look, I'm not [music] going to sit here and tell you that Orange County is cheap because it's absolutely not. And if you're comparing today's rates to whatever your friend or family locked in back in 2021 [music] and 2022, it is going to hurt. I'm not going to pretend otherwise. But here's the part that gets [music] lost in the panic. OC actually has been a pricey market for as long as I've been living and working here. And, what's happening right now is a historical anomaly. It just feels that way because we all got spoiled. So, forget about whether 2026 [music] is the perfect time to buy because there's no such thing as perfect. The real question is whether buying now beats waiting around for a market that never shows up.

[00:02:19]>> [music] >> And, you really can't answer that without seeing what waiting actually costs you. But, let me first start with why everyone's even panicking about buying in 2026. The reason number one is [music] the rates. We are hovering around that low sixes, 6.2, 6.3%. It does change week over week, but it's been around the low sixes on a 30-year fixed. And, [music] if your brain is still anchored on those pandemic numbers, today's rates, they're going to feel like a gut punch. The reason number two is the noise. You flip on any news channel and someone's predicting a crash, a bubble, a recession. And, things like Reddit threads, social media, it doubles it because everyone jumps on it and sensationalizes it. And, reason number three is [music] the price tag. The OC median just hit 1.3 million.

[00:03:07]That number does [music] something to people because, especially if you remember when these same homes were going for about half of that not [music] too long ago. You stack all of that together and buying right now feels like jumping without knowing what's below.

[00:03:21]But, [music] what something feels like and what's actually true are two very different things. So, let's see what the actual numbers say. So, the rates being at the low sixes aren't really a crisis.

[00:03:31]They're actually normal. [music] If you pull up a chart of the last 40 years, you're going to see that mortgage rates have spent most of their time between the 6 and 8%. In the '80s, try 15%. And, more recently in the early 2000s, right before the crash, they were sitting comfortably in the 6 to 7% range. Those 2 to 3% rates, or even four five, that we got during the pandemic weren't normal. They were the Fed really pulling the emergency cord because the economy was about to face plant. And that kind of thing isn't supposed to last. Waiting around for that to happen again is basically rooting for another disaster, [music] which probably not what you actually want. So, when somebody tells you that the rates are high right now, what they're actually meaning is that rates are back to normal again. And normal shouldn't be the reason to sit out. It just means recalibrating what you thought was the baseline, which leaves you with one real choice. But do you want [music] to keep waiting on the rates that may never come back, or work with the market that's actually in front [music] of you? Picture a typical OC home price at 1.3 million today. So, you've got two options. You want to buy it now at, let's say, 6%, or wait two years and hope something better shows up. Option A is you buy now at 1.3 million, 6%, 20% down. Your monthly principal and interest comes out to roughly around $6,235.

[00:04:55]There's option B, you decide to wait two years. Let's be generous and assume rates stick to 5 and 1/2%. The OC keeps appreciating at a modest 3% a year. With the rates coming down, the demand is going to be up. The home prices may be higher than that. So, that same home is now closer to 1.38 million. At 5 and 1/2%, your monthly payment is about $6,265.

[00:05:20]So, you waited two years, scored a slightly better rate, but you end up with a slightly higher monthly payment on a more expensive house. Make it make sense, because to put 20% down on the new price, you now need about $15,000 more in cash than you would have needed today. So, you're not just paying more monthly, [music] you're scraping together a bigger down payment, too. And here's the part that really stings.

[00:05:44]You're actually paying rent the whole time. Average OC rent is over $3,100 a month, which means you spent roughly $74,000 over those 2 years [music] building absolutely nothing. So, the total damage, $80,000 more on the purchase price, $16,000 more cash needed at closing, plus $74,000 in rent. [music] That's around $170,000 you spent waiting for a market that ended up worse for [music] you, not better. Honestly, trying to time the perfect OC market, it reminds me of sitting in stop-and-go traffic on the 91. And if you've ever been on the 91, you'd understand. You keep watching the other lanes, convinced yours is about to clear out. So, you sit and you wait and you watch the lane next to you crawl forward and you tell yourself they'll slow down any second. But by the time you finally decide to switch, the cars that left when you started watching are already several exits ahead of you. So, waiting for the perfect market works exactly the same way because there are people who are currently moving when conditions were just okay, and they're already building equity while you're still watching for that green light that may never come. I can already hear the pushback though. What if prices actually [music] crash, Yolo? Fair question, but here's the thing though. OC currently has just a little over 2 and 1/2 months of housing supply, which is way under normal of the 6-month mark. And the homeowners that are sitting on those homes, they're [music] locked in at very, very low rate. They don't have any intention of selling, which [music] keeps inventory very tight. For prices to drop in any meaningful way, you'd either need a flood of new inventory or a true, true economic [music] disaster.

[00:07:25]And neither is on the horizon right now.

[00:07:28]But I'm not going to pretend everyone [music] should jump in. Let's be real about who needs to wait. If your job is shaky right now, not the time to buy.

[00:07:37]This market doesn't go easy on people who can't make payments. So, if there's any chance you're going to have to move again in the next 3 years, also [music] don't buy because closing costs and transaction fees will swallow whatever equity [music] you build in the next couple of years. And also, if you're stretching to qualify for the absolute max, walk away. [music] Less than 20% of OC households can comfortably afford the median home. So, affordability here [music] in California, in OC, is a real thing. If your mortgage payment is going to keep [music] you up at night, that is not the move. We don't want you to be house poor. Don't buy if you really don't have the reserves because down payment is one piece, but you also need money set aside for closing [music] costs, there's moving costs, and whatever comes after, whether that's new furniture or even like a leaky water heater that you have to repair. If buying drains every dollar that you have, that's a sign to keep saving.

[00:08:30][music] And honestly, if you're holding out for OC to magically become affordable someday, don't. It's been expensive for decades. [music] Beaches, jobs, school, weather, the combination doesn't get any cheaper. [music] The demand is still very high. If any of that hit a nerve, that's okay because >> [music] >> keep renting, keep saving, come back when the timing is actually right for you. There is really zero shame in that.

[00:08:54]Everyone is on their own timeline. But if [music] you're stable, you're planning to stay put, and you're done watching rent disappear into someone else's mortgage every month, the math says 2026 might be your year because here's the [music] thing, every situation is different and a YouTube video is not going to tell you whether 2026 is a right year for your specific numbers, your job, your timeline, [music] or your goals. So, if you're sitting there wondering, okay, which side of the line do I fall on? I offer a free, no pressure consultation. We'll look at your actual numbers, what you can comfortably afford, [music] what areas of OC might actually fit your priorities, and whether buying now or waiting makes more [music] sense for your specific situation. There's no sales pitch, just a real conversation about your real numbers. You can [music] reach me directly at the contact information below or click the link in the description to book a time. Now, let's zoom in on what's actually happening here in Orange County because we don't move with the rest of the country. Homes are sitting on the market for about 36 to 54 days right now and that's slower than the pandemic frenzy, but it's still faster than what we saw historically and year-over-year prices, it's up about 3%. This is for the entire county. It's steady overall. It's not explosive and roughly 27% of OC homes are still going for over asking, which tells you that demand truly hasn't gone anywhere and at least not for the well-priced properties. Rents are pushing the same direction. They're projected to climb another 3% this year with the average already over $3,100 a month and every one of those rent payments is money that could be going towards something you actually own. And here's the statistic that most [music] people miss. Only about 57% of OC residents own their homes. That means that almost half the county is renting and the rate is increasing. And no, those people aren't just all sitting around waiting for a crash. Yes, there's a lot of them who just can't qualify or can't [music] save fast enough to keep up with this market. So, if you can qualify and you're ready to plant some roots, you're competing against a huge pool of people who are stuck on the sidelines and [music] that dynamic is not going anywhere. That said though, knowing the market is truly only step one because even within OC's strongest areas, neighborhoods can vary wildly [music] and school boundaries especially can make or break a decision. The differences matter for how you actually live in the home and what it's worth down the road, which brings me to one last thing before we wrap up. Now, here's what every Orange County household with school age kids need to understand. [music] Price and timing matter, but if the school assignment is part of your decision, the boundaries you fall into and impact both your family's day-to-day and your home's long-term value. Orange County has many highly rated districts, [music] but boundaries can be tricky because some neighborhoods that look identical can actually feed into completely different schools with very different [music] test scores and program offerings. The only way to know for sure is to verify boundaries at the address level before you write an offer. So, my partner Kai and I, we put together a comprehensive school guide that breaks down every major district in Orange County. We go over test scores, boundaries, and how school ratings have correlated with home values over time. You can grab it for free in the description below. This isn't just generic information you can find online. It's really [music] based on years of helping households navigate these decisions and seeing what actually matters when you're living here. Here is the bottom line. If [music] you are truly a qualified buyer who's planning to actually stay put, 2026 isn't the disaster the headlines are selling you.

[00:12:30]But, [music] timing is only half of it.

[00:12:32]Knowing where to buy in OC and how to strategize to buy is really what separates a decent decision from a great one. So, here is what I'll offer. Send me a text at the number here with [music] just a little brief info about where you're at. If you're renting, you're looking, on the fence, if you've gotten pre-approved, and what I'll do is I'll personally reply with whether it makes sense to even have a conversation yet. No booking a link, no commitment, and no sales [music] pitch whatsoever.

[00:13:00]It's just a quick gut check from someone who actually works in this market every day and can give you an honest response.

[00:13:06]>> [music] >> And if it does make sense to talk, then we'll set up a free consultation from there.