In cryptocurrency markets, extreme price declines and negative sentiment often signal market bottoms rather than permanent asset failure, as historical patterns show that periods of maximum fear and capitulation among investors and influencers typically precede significant rallies; investors should use logic and data rather than emotions when making investment decisions, as human psychology tends to cause people to sell at the bottom and buy at the top.
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Deep Dive
XRP: You Sure We're NOT IN TROUBLE?!Added:
Hello, this is Matt on the Moon Lambo channel. Let me explain something to you. As somebody who has been in crypto for the better part of a decade at this point, as someone who has never cashed his crypto out to United States dollar, as somebody who has never sold a single XRP in his entire life, although I do intend to do both of those things, we like I understand people are freaking out right now as I'm recording. You know, Bitcoin's in the 73,000s. Uh XRP is down to a buck 28. Maybe it's even worse by the time you're watching this.
This is the worst sentiment that I've experienced in in these recent months.
It's the worst it's ever been. And you're having major influencers from various crypto communities capitulate.
Folks, I've seen this before. These these are bottom signals, folks. These are bottom signals. I want to take some time to highlight how the XRP community has been through this. Other communities have been through this and it's never signaled the end. In fact, utility itself for XRP never been stronger. Utility for the entire crypto asset class, never been stronger.
And and and think about this. The war on crypto was over in the United States.
Hopefully, we get the Clarity Act passed. But even without that, look at look at what's going on here. You know, the largest capital market on the entire planet. It's it's now flooding the market with money.
And I understand what's happened for the last eight months. I I get it. There's been a major correction. Totally understand that. I've been living there, going through it in the trenches with all y'all. I'm just telling you this is not something to be fearful of. It's like, are we in trouble? I mean, it looks like trouble out there to everyone. I get that. I see why. Because what's trouble? Number go down. Trouble.
Oh, no. No. I get it. I get the emotion.
But is anything structurally broken?
Does it mean that we're never going to have another rally ever again? No. It absolutely does not. And I want to highlight some things, put some pieces together for you. So, if you are having a little trouble, I think you're going to be feeling a lot better by the end of this video. The best is yet ahead for XRP holders and for this asset class, period. But before going further, I do want to be clear. I do not have a financial background of any kind. I am not offering financial advice. And you definitely should not buy or sell anything because of anything I say or write. I'm just an enthusiast who enjoys making YouTube videos about cryptorelated topics, but just as a hobby and just for fun. Uh here's a post from chart analyst Quinton. He wrote, "Crypto is getting obliterated by every other asset." And so uh there's some truth to this obviously. Look at the crypto market down here. If you look at the screen, you can see you can look at silver. You can look at gold. You look at the Russell 2000, NASDAQ, S&P 500.
It's true. It looks like crypto has decoupled in a very bad way. I understand that. You may notice that when this quote unquote decoupling happened, it was when we had a black swan event in October and things have fallen. I was talking about this literally my last video about how market makers were wounded and we saw that there was mechanical selling for a span of months. Uh I mean it was it was bad.
It was extremely bad and I went to the mechanics at the time as to why that was happening. So I don't want to rehash all of that. But all of this can be explained. We've been digging out of it for a little while right now. But it's you're not going to go up perfectly in a straight line right now. Even as we went up recently to $82,000 in Bitcoin, XRP got up to about a buck 55. Uh people were just in disbelief. You know, it's a suckers rally. Um you know, the the bulls are really going to eat it here.
And then as soon as we start to pull back a little bit, you see the bears taking their victory laps. I think they're taking their victory laps too soon. Even if we go lower, um it seems very clear to me that this is this is the place where there's the most opportunity. All these other things like look at silver and gold ran tremendously. Uh and not saying there's not still opportunity in the S&P 500 and the Russell. What I'm saying is when you have an asset class like crypto that is suppressed this much historically every single time without fail that has been a moment of maximal opportunity and what I'm telling you is this time will not be different. Have you seen if you're on social media have you seen all the fear out there in the Ethereum community? It is freaking everywhere. And I shared a post here uh yesterday morning. I wrote the Ethereum is dead posts are everywhere on my feed. Wow. Of course, to think that Ethereum will never see new all-time highs is silly. But human brains believe that when price goes down, that's proof an asset is dead.
That's not how markets work. XRP used to be dead, too. And by the way, I'm going to show you an example of that. A fairly recent example of that. Um, but here's I don't want to I'm not going to go like too in depth into like the bazillion influencers and just community members in the ETH community who have absolutely capitulated given up, but uh this is the big most big recent one. Uh David Hoffman uh here here you go. I mean, he's been in crypto for a while. Uh optimistic storyteller, frontier technology, the chaotic side of of bankless. Uh he wrote to here, "If you missed the news last week, I sold my ETH." And again, this guy 254,000 followers on X. He's very well known in crypto and specifically in the Ethereum community. And he wrote, "For someone who built a career, community, identity, and business around Ethereum, this choice does not come lightly." Uh, and so I don't want to read this whole thing, so let's go to the TLDDR version.
He wrote, "The ETH is money thesis didn't fail. It played out. Ethereum got the ETH price it deserves, and I don't see ETH being rerated as an asset, higher or lower." Okay, so he's talking about Ether itself. he had this thesis that it was going to um have the narrative and it would be successful for that narrative that the narrative that Bitcoin is basically money the money thesis which really frankly doesn't even work for Bitcoin. So it's like a silly thing but uh that that was his belief.
Uh okay. Uh interesting take there, bro.
Um he's looking at this all wrong and it's just so fascinating to observe this. And so he wrote here PS I am massively bullish on bullish Ethereum. I expect Ethereum as a network to do exceptionally well from here on out. I think only a marginal amount of that success will be reflected in ETH. So what he's basically saying there if you think about this is that utility uh utility frankly doesn't matter when it comes to price.
You like price will not reflect the utility of the network. That's crazy to me. That is Looney Tunes crazy time to me. My thesis has always been that utility matters and will win the day.
And I say that because it will be reflected in price ultimately. Just let things let time pass. Does it doesn't mean that assets like XRP can't be undervalued at times. Of course they can. That's happened. I still my opinion is like XRP is you know undervalued compared to where it should be if people understood exactly what's happening right now. But this type of thing like people actually think this stuff. And so you'd have to believe that Ethereum, like you'd have to believe that the the the real world asset uh you know, adoption that we're seeing in the the world of crypto, you'd have to believe that having real world assets tokenized won't drive value for the native coins attached to those blockchains. So look at this. You I've been highlighting recently XRP amazing number four coin on the planet for dollar value of tokenized real world assets on the on the chain for XRP number four on the freaking planet.
That's incredible. $4.1 billion.
Ethereum is a bigger ecosystem right now. And that shouldn't be surprising.
Obviously, you know, when you're talking about smart contract functionality, there's all sorts of stuff you can do with that. Um but as a result, they're number two. Ethereum is number two with $8.8 billion. So you you'd have to have a thesis. And this is why it's why wasn't this David Hoffman guy, why wasn't he screaming that Ethereum was dead when the price, you know, a year ago would would hit an all-time high.
Why why wasn't he screaming it then?
It's only when the price falls and we we're in a midcycle correction for this long. It's because price go down.
Therefore, thesis is done. No, you're looking at a very short short snapshot in in in terms of what's happening price-wise. that that's a very way too short of a time period to rule out a thesis anyway. I don't agree with it the way he's looking at the market. I don't agree with this thesis at all, but it's way too short of a time period anyway.
David Hoffman, do you not see this? So, um XRP here 4.1 billion, Ethereum 18.8 billion. So you you'd have to genuinely believe that having huge dollar values tokenized on these chain chains and people knowing that the coins themselves, Ether and XRP are required for this to exist. You you're telling me that humans and investors moving forward will not believe that matters for the coin. They they're really not going to think, hm, that couldn't be h all that tokenization couldn't happen. Uh I should buy the coin. You don't think they're going to think that? That is silly nonsense. When you're talking about total value locked, this is one of the which is what this is. We're talking about total value locked on on the chain.
That is one of the biggest drivers for price action historically speaking. If you look at what happened last cycle, the blockchain backer broke this down a long time ago. There are 20% of coins last cycle that hit new all-time highs.
Just 20% of them did. And what was a common thing throughout for just about all of them? Total value locked was high and there's developer activity of course. Um that was a thing that matters but total value locked specifically hu huge impact it I couldn't tell you how important that particular metric is. But price went down and now he thinks his thesis is dead. Now I don't think his thesis was good in the first place. No offense to him. Uh I I just have a different opinion. But that's why when price goes down finally finally oh you giving up over this short time period. Okay that's not the this is the way that humans respond though. This is why I always say you got to understand when you're investing in crypto you are your own worst enemy. If somebody's going to screw up investing for you in crypto it's probably going to be you because you are in control actually. You have you have agency. You get to make your own decisions here. But humans they have trouble with this. The investing it's it's emotionally taxing psychologically.
destroys people uh because it's your hard-earned dollars you invest and when that goes down it really hurts. I get it. And so people say and say and do silly things, things that are not good for their own financial well-being when they feel things. They they don't use logic and data and reason in such instances uh to make investment decisions. They use their feelings. I think that's a bad idea no matter what.
I think you should use logic and data and reason to come to whatever conclusion makes sense for you. So do you remember this? This happens everywhere. what's happened in XRP now our comm everybody's feeling beaten down now no matter what the community is not as bad in the XRP community right now because XRP has been the top one top performing coin of the top 100 for most of the time since uh late 2024 but there was severe depression just a couple years ago sentiment in the in the community was in the gutter particularly in the XRP community look at this headline from February 10th 2024 before a little over two years ago. This from the cryptobasic XRP army calls Ripple executives to act fast on XRP price declines and they were just highlighting this post from a popular XRP community member. Uh Mack attack XRP with 88,700 followers. So he's a pretty well-known influencer within the space, but he did hit a point where where he was just feeling like, "Oh my god, this is terrible, beaten down. Got to do something." And so he wrote this on February 9th, 2024. I think it is high time to do something about the XRP price quickly. Here's a sincere warning to Brad Garlinghouse, Ripple, XRPL Labs, David Schwarz, because the community is starting to get restless. Things are really going in the wrong direction with XRP. Let's see. I'm bringing in so much money every month, but my connections are starting to drop and I'm starting to sell. So, there you go. And so to me, um, I think it is unreasonable, let's say, to be diplomatic here. It's unreasonable to call on a company, a participant, a single participant, well-known one, big one, important one, but a single participant to do something to drive price as if Ripple literally can control the market. No, they cannot. No matter what good news they've been spitting out for like a decade, it hasn't impacted the price of XRP. It's one of those things where what they're doing matters, but it doesn't immediately impact price.
It it matters over a long period of time. And I do believe that, but it's not that they can just do something and then the price instantly magically goes up. That's that's not how this works. So why was he saying that? Well, price was lower. Price was lower. XRP continued to f fall against Bitcoin especially throughout most of the year. But you know what happened later that year? It rocketed. And then you don't see stuff like this anymore. You didn't see another post like this from Mac Attack uh when when the price went up saying Ripple must do something, must act and but you also see it here. This is this is the change.org petition. This is just hilarious to me. This is a real thing.
February 12th, 2024. This happens in every community, folks. Not just the XRP community. Happens in Ethereum, like I just highlighted. Happens in the HAR community. Look at this petition to petition to Hideera Hashgraph LLC and affiliated organizations to restore the price of HAR. This is what happens when people get desperate. Now, HAR also ended up running tremendously um you know in uh late 2024. Now, of course, it's had a substantial pullback since then. So has XRP, a lot of coins, but it actually did run. And and so Chart Handles Credible Crypto responded to this and he said, "Lol, this is nuts.
Not sure why people can't understand that. It's no one's responsibility to make your coin pump. The market decides as always. In any case, chart looks fantastic on higher time frame. I'm long. And so there you go. I This is just what we're seeing now. And so if you're starting to feel along these lines like, "Oh my god, something must happen. This isn't working. Oh my god, we're in trouble." Chill out. Just chill the [ __ ] out. Everything is going to be okay. My god.
Like markets go down, they spook people.
Crypto's highly volatile. This is not new information, but it still hits people every freaking freaking time. It just does. Doesn't hit me though because you know what I expect is for the crypto market to keep behaving like the crypto market, which means exactly this. It has been doing this for over 17 years. In fact, if we didn't see periods like this that made people respond in these stupid ways, then I'd be concerned like, what the hell just changed? Why aren't we seeing this anymore? Why why is there no longer this volatility? Why did it just suddenly stop? Then I'd be very worried.
Like something is wrong that I don't understand. But the fact that crypto is doing what 17 years worth of data tells us we should expect it to do means that I'm not exactly having a hard time sleeping at night. And there's this post from uh chart analyst Nick Crypto Crusader of the XRP community. He posted this. This is a great post. I'm just going to share part of it with you. This is February 10th, 2024. This is so good.
I got to share this with you.
uh he had this post titled or where he wrote at the top anyway, "XRP is dead and a scam."
This is what the XRP crowd is yelling and screaming. The FUD and negativity is getting louder day by day. Remember what I always say, the bottom won't feel like the bottom. The reason for that is because the overall sentiment will persuade you that it's dead, you should move on, etc. Got to pause right there.
100% correct. So what happened after this? You had to wait a little over half a year since it was in the gutter. But if you did hold on, what happened? You saw your XRP go from 40 something cents ultimately to $3.65.
You saw that coin that you hold, if you were a holder, become the number one performing coin out of the top 100 coins by market cap. But it was the end of the world, right? Sentiment. If it felt like the but for you, it's over if you sold.
And if that's your choice, so be it. You do whatever you want. I'm not telling you what to do. But back then there were people like, "Oh, this thing's it's just not working out." And they sold and they missed out on the best perforing coin.
Uh, from that point moving forward, November onward, you see what the human emotion does because it wasn't about logic. It wasn't about data. It wasn't about reason. Had nothing to do with fundamentals or utility or a long-term thesis or or why the market moves. It had nothing to do with that. Had to do with I feel like I want it to be higher, but it's not, so I'm getting rid of it.
Whoa. Yeah, I'm never going to do I'm never going to do that. If I sell XRB, it's because it's worth a fortune and I want to take profit or because something fundamentally shifted. There's a hole in the code. Something terrible is happening and then okay, fine. But not because the price goes down.
Hell no. And then he said November 2022, the general consensus was that the snowball effect on FTX was going to bring down Binance, Coinbase, uh, Crypto.com, and so many other exchanges.
This was peak fear, peak negativity. All hope was lost. And what happened next was January 2023.
The market erupted and completely shut the bears down. When it comes to XRP, it is and never will be an easy hold. Why?
Because of times like these. Prominent names flipping bearish. FUD is flooding the social streets. and everyone has given up on the idea that it will never make a new all-time high again.
The chart below, well to your side here on the left here, the chart below is the XRP/BTC chart. So XRP price against Bitcoin. As you can see, it's basically in freefall.
Now, you might be saying, Nick, all of these other altcoins are mooning. They are doing X amount of gains while XRP does nothing. The truth about this statement is that there will always be a basket of altcoins moving against your positions and it will feel like you picked the wrong ones. You can't be caught up in compar just comparing one coin to another in this space or it will drive you crazy. Yep, that is you absolutely nailed it. Spot on right there. As I've said many times, there are tens of thousands of coins that are tracked on Coin Market Cap and Live Coin Watch. Tens of thousands of coins. How many of those do you hold?
like a few, three, five, 10, 15, 20, if you're crazy like me, because I've been here so long, I hold over 40, even though most of the dollars I've invested, to be clear, have been in large caps that have utility. Um, how many do you hold?
Do do you hold 40? I'm willing to bet most people don't hold that many. Some of you listening do I'm sure some of you listening hold like crazy amounts, even more than me. But what I'm saying is even if you do, I don't care if you hold four times. What you hold way like a fraction of a percent of all coins in existence, there will always be something running and it's always going to be in the news uh social media uh crypto media outlets.
It's it's always going to be thrown in your face. So most the time when a coin is running, it will not be something that you own. Make peace with that. It doesn't mean you picked the wrong thing.
It has nothing to do with that.
Comparison is the thief of joy, my friends. But eventually, you know, rotation occurs and money does reach whatever the hell you hold because the entire asset class rises and falls together in a general sense. That's just true.
Take a look at this post from chart analyst psychedelic. I think he broke it down pretty well. He said, "Genuinely loving all this Ethereum is dead sentiment. I do not understand how so many people over and over fall into the same mindset. You will only ever hear that an asset is dead when its price is down. Humans are such very basic emotional creatures and they cannot control their fear. They have to find a reason to validate their fears and they will attach to whatever narrative is there in that moment. It is the exact reason why the vast majority sell the bottom and buy the top. If you cannot see this pattern repeat over time and you continue to believe it whenever it arises, you should simply give up and leave. You will fail. This is a really solid post on the facts.
Read it. Uh read it if you can stop yourself being an emotional child for five minutes. And it's a longer post. I did read it. It's from an account I wasn't familiar with named the short bear. Good post, but yeah, it's just purely silly nonsense.
It truly is the the best is yet. It's like I don't know for sure if like Ethereum is going to be like here decades from now. Maybe it will be. May maybe I mean in terms of having like materially important adoption. Maybe it falls uh because so and so happens. But I'll tell you this, there is no indication that's going to happen right now. There there there's serious adoption of meaningful even if you're just talking about real world assets even there that's enough. and the stable coin ecosystem. Doesn't Ethereums have something like over half of stable coins in existence on the on the platform?
Some some stupid number. And and that's and that's the thing that's dead. That's the thing where the value of the coin attached isn't going to go up. Are you dead serious? What the hell are you actually talking about? No. Well, Ethereum most certainly is not dead.
Even if it doesn't have long-term viability, like I believe XRP will, and maybe it will, though. I'm not saying it won't. But even if it doesn't, it's not going to go up like during this market cycle with everything else. The number two coin with all this adoption, all these things happening, all this developer activity, all the total value locked, none of that matters anymore.
And you happen to believe that precisely at the moment where the price is what it is, when it's down in the gutter like this, don't you think that's kind of interesting that you feel that way at this moment? Do you not see what psychedelic here is talking about? Oh, it's just astonishing. But people going to people, man. People going to people.
I'll tell you what, I'm just not going to do what the general populace will do when it comes to your typical lim retail speculators. I will continue to do the opposite. I'm just going to sit here and hold doing literally nothing and let the market continue to grow. And XRP has never had stronger fundamentals. Uh it's just it's a ridiculously impressive all the utility, all the adoption. Um you know, JP Morgan, Mastercard piloting the blockchain. You you've got all the real world asset technology tokenization.
XRP increasingly used as a bridge currency, the stable coin ecosystem. You now have RLUSD and USDC tokenized on the XRP blockchain. Like what you want to tell me none of that [ __ ] matters?
You're crazy. All of that matters tremendously. Utility has never been greater. The best is yet ahead. Period.
I'm not a financial adviser. You should not buy or sell anything because of anything I say or right. That would be a very very very bad idea. Until next time, to the moon Lambo.
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