Bill Holter: Bond Market Crash & Govt Confiscation of Bullion 'Hoarders'! - The Protection Strategy!

追加: 2026-05-22

[00:00:00]Hey everybody, delighted to be back uh with a regular I would actually say uh and someone who was in from the very early doors on Gata deserves a lot of credit uh along with uh Jim Sinclair recently well passed on some time ago.

[00:00:15]Uh we are talking about Bill Halter of Halter.com. Make sure you check him out.

[00:00:20]Welcome back Bill.

[00:00:23]>> Thanks for having me back.

[00:00:25]Uh so so much to discuss because we actually haven't spoken in a wee bit. Um but uh when I asked you the question, you went straight to what I've been jabbering on about as well. We think uh alike. Uh talk to us about the bond rates and yields and what is it really communicating.

[00:00:44]>> Yeah, I think that's the biggest L right now. I think it's it's all important because you're looking at a $350 trillion debt market.

[00:00:54]and interest rates are going higher. Um, you've got British yields now back to 1998 levels. You have US yields back to uh 2007 levels. So, all the easing we had during the the teens and early 2020s, that's all that's all gone. I mean, and it and look at the Japanese yields. I mean, Japan has gone from what uh the 30-year bond was 39. Now it's it's 415 420.

[00:01:28]>> We called long at 0.7 as it broke out and said it's going to 6.3 and it's now at 4.5.

[00:01:37]Yeah. The important the important thing there about the Japanese yield is that that is that was the biggest market uh that created the carry trade.

[00:01:48]>> Yep.

[00:01:49]>> And carry trade I mean that's just that is just leverage uh supporting and pushing markets up or assets up in value. And that's that's clearly going to unwind.

[00:02:04]>> Yes. Uh so the carry trade the the debt in the Japanese market for those that's quick uh educational um cheap money in Japanese uh Japan was borrowed at the sub 1% range uh converted into dollars and invested in America mostly not univer only not solely but uh mostly also I'll highlight there is a carry trade many people aren't talking about this uh so much but there's a smaller carry trade into Korea into the Korean Cosby B index which has done 254% driven by SK highix and Samsung on the AI boom. It's kind of a NASDAQ on steroids but very reliant on foreign direct investment. So there will be other stock markets that might be looking a bit giddy right now. What do you think on we'll come back to bonds but just seeing as we stumbled into the markets on tech. We have sell in May and go away. We have a new Fed chair which is often a cyclical turn. Um, and you got presidential midterms once they're out the way. Uh, what do you think about the outlooks there? Never mind valuations.

[00:03:12]Yeah, never mind valuations. I mean, valuations are all important.

[00:03:17]Uh, Berture Outweight sitting on $400 billion in cash. And I I I do want to put a disclaimer here because I I know there were some comments uh in the past that would be a gold position that 400 billion if if they could do it. Um you can't put 400 billion into into gold. You'd blow that market.

[00:03:43]It would fail to deliver. uh and Warren Buffett had 130 million ounces back in what 2001 2002 got a knock on his door and ended up selling it. So understand that the reason they they've not done uh metal instead of direct treasuries is that the logistics they can't do it. Uh but the point I'm trying to make is the the Buffett ind the Buffett uh market indicator is at an all-time high as far as markets being overvalued.

[00:04:21]Um so that's you're you're looking at the the most overvalued markets of all time.

[00:04:30]At the same time, interest rates are going higher. Now, you mentioned Kevin Walsh, and Kevin Walsh, uh, you know, they try to portray him as a hawk. He's not. He's a dove. Trump wouldn't have picked him unless he was a dove. And the scary part is the last two times the Fed went through an easing cycle, what happened to the credit markets? Interest rates went up. They didn't go down. Now, this is uh this is going to be the third episode.

[00:05:03]The Fed at some point in time will cut rates and I will I mean I'll be watching intently to see what happens to credit markets because I think it may ease again and you see rates go higher and bonds collapse.

[00:05:19]That tells you that the issuer of the world's reserve currency has lost control of the yield curve. That's huge.

[00:05:30]>> It is. And we've also more recently, I think it's been a while since we spoke, we've seen the shorter duration. So, it was a bit of a yellen's trick. She was reducing duration during the Biden era and putting out on funding instead of 30-year, 20 year, and 10 year, she was putting it out on threes, twos, and ones, which gives you that rotational cliff that's coming back around a lot quicker. I think there's another 10 trillion to rotate and now the shorter end is also gone up. So talk to us a little bit about the the running out of room part of that.

[00:06:04]>> Yeah. Well, uh there's 29 trillion that needs to be refinanced or rolled over in the next four years. Like you said, I think it's something like eight or 10 trillion over the next 12 months or less.

[00:06:19]So what they've done is they've they've reduced duration. But what that does is interest rates go higher, they roll over higher. So they're much more interest sensitive than if they had a duration of 10 or 12 or 15 years. You know, a bunch of 10, 20, and 30 year bonds. Um, so I mean that that worked at the time, but now the time to pay the piper is here and that the US is going to be paying somewhere around 1.5 trillion in interest this year. Then we got next year and the year after that and the year after that when he's this bond portfolio is is repricing into higher yields. So, you're looking at, you know, puncturing two trillion and beyond. Um, I saw a study the other day that my 2038, assuming the system holds together, and I don't see any possible way we get to through 2038, but in 12 years, uh, the Treasury is going to be paying more interest than everything else combined. meaning uh you know all the social programs, the defense budget etc etc. You add all that together and by 2038 the interest component alone is going to be larger than everything else combined. That's we don't get to that point. The markets will not hold together until it it's clear that that that's the case.

[00:08:01]The other thing in that I I sometimes get criticized as sort of being anti-American for pointing out the Cayman Islands, United Kingdom as sudden big buyer island uh Luxembourg and the Belgium um but particularly the Cayman Islands hustle. How how do you look past that as being particularly let's just refer to the Cayman which has a a 7.5 billion economy but actually owns close to 2 trillion um in uh treasury bills all financed on rollover basis trade daily funding facilitated by the same uh major liquidity providers and banks. How do you frame that as anything but Ponzi support uh that is probably dark state managed? Is there any other framing that's due? I mean, people try to legitimize that to me and I say it it can't be. It's a it's a it's a temporary structure that's ready to be pulled on the controlled demolition when their time is right.

[00:09:01]>> Yeah. The word I was going to use is fraud, but Ponzi worked just as well. U there's there's no way that that's legitimate uh legitimate buying. I mean, it is demand. It's soaking up treasuries, but like you said, there's probably dark dark money behind that official, you know, probably from the Federal Reserve directly. Who knows?

[00:09:27]There's not really a way to track it.

[00:09:30]Um, but that's been that's been the game is to create demand, but you can't really see where it's coming from, what the you know, is it real or not, and it's clearly not real.

[00:09:44]>> Yeah. On that topic, I was listening to Katherine Austin Fitz recently uh this morning in fact and she was mentioning that there's legislature for both government and the businesses uh the big usually unicorn tech and financial to actually have secret books and it's legal. Uh in other words, non-disclosure. So the financials you get are actually not the full story and then there's all these offbalance sheet items where a second set of books are being retained by both government departments at the highest level and uh institutions involved with them. So if uh to go back to your quick one-word characterization of fraud uh it's got a very Enron like vibe to me.

[00:10:28]>> I have I have a one-word answer for that one. Surprise.

[00:10:32]>> Yeah. not surprised.

[00:10:35]Uh so um the with the bond many people are going to be losing their their um mindset for gold as and silver as preservational value because they're sulking about current price action. And of course as the yields initially go higher um it has an adversorial effect shortterm I stress on gold and silver h and of course as oil goes up that's inflation and driving up the the yields as well. there's a little bit of um uh antagonism between oil right now and the precious metals market, although that won't be permanent. What's your take on people that are agitated about the gold and silver and the current relationship in terms of what's happening now and how it all plays out?

[00:11:20]Uh that's that's difficult to answer because my mindset would be just, you know, anybody who's who's whining or complaining about the price, gold and silver have been the best assets since the year 2000. So if you're worried about the price and and just sell your position and go away, >> not the wrong thing to do. What's happening is is uh gold and silver are being viewed as risk assets when in fact they're 180 degrees opposite. They are they are money. They are the foundation and a foundation to the world's system are are basically US treasuries. It's credit and treasuries are issued by an insolvent entity. So you have a foundation to the entire financial system that's an IOU from an insolvent entity versus having gold, silver, the bricks for example. um they're wanting to back their currency with real assets, real hard assets that cannot bankrupt.

[00:12:38]And that's where we're that's where it ultimately heads is that the system comes down and gold, silver, they don't default.

[00:12:50]They're no one there there there is no counterparty risk. They're no one else's asset.

[00:12:57]Uh, so you're, you know, you're looking at a foundation, it's bro, it's made out of concrete.

[00:13:04]>> Yeah. Yeah. It's people not realizing what it is. Would you say there's a, in actual fact, rather than people being upset, they should see it as the discount window that should be exploited and that's very much what China appears to do. uh give you a little bit on the the record March uh imports on silver uh and the fact that US on the product level particularly category didn't have a record trade deficit on account of massive gold sales uh over five months to China. Give us a comment on uh that as well, Bill. What's your take?

[00:13:38]Uh yeah, you're I mean you're talking about supply and demand and there's obviously there's more demand than there is supply, but the mining the mine supply is barely moving higher. In the case of silver, it's not moving higher at all.

[00:13:53]Uh you mentioned China, China is no longer exporting any silver to the world. So you're, you know, you're looking at uh then that's been in a structural deficit for over five years.

[00:14:06]So you're you're looking at a supply of demand situation. It's unbelievably bullish. Yet, you know, people are ringing their hands because silver came down from $120 and gold came down from $5,400.

[00:14:23]Well, I mean, think about where we were. Think about where we came from. Gold and silver deserved and needed a pullback.

[00:14:33]It needed a correction. Now, did did silver need a 50% correction? No, that was held along with paper contracts and the CRV. This past uh Wednesday and Thursday, I was looking at the CRB uh chart and that's clearly breaking out, broken out, and all the blocks are in place now. You can clearly see the blocks for stagflation.

[00:15:03]Whereas uh the real economy slows, inflation heats up and asset prices decline. Um people will say, "Oh, well asset prices aren't declining." Well, yeah, real estate is stagnating.

[00:15:19]Commercial real estate's already collapsed. The bond market, which that's most important because everything runs on credit. The bond markets around the world are collapsing and and the currency markets are collapsing. And you can say that because by just looking at the price of gold, nothing else. Nothing else matters. It's gold versus currencies. And no, gold didn't go up. That 1 ounce of gold is still just 1 ounce of gold. That's all it is. It's the measuring stick and what it measures are currencies and currencies have collapsed. I mean the dollar has lost roughly 50% of its value purchasing power value in two years from going from 2500 to 5,000.

[00:16:08]Yeah, brilliant points and I want to make clear when you said assets, you're talking about the financially leveraged assets um rather than the commodities and the monetary >> paper assets paper asset >> which is property as well because of the leverage. Everyone's got leverage to buy in commercial real estate an absolute busted plush. So actually in my opinion and I think it sounds like we we're in agreement here. The everything bubble bar the NASDAQ stock market really but if you look at it in gold ounces it's already started to turn despite this rally uh is actually contracting the everything bubble is contracting providing you're using the gold ounce which is our our point of call as your unit of account on the basis that all other fiats are in a chronic debasement right now.

[00:16:56]Well, Francis, even if you don't use gold as the yard stick, which it is, even if you use the dollar as the yard stick, if you look at the the stock markets, the breath has been horrible.

[00:17:09]The amount of new new 52- week lows, there's no way when you have a market making new highs, you should have this many 52- week lows. So, internally, the markets stink. the generals, the top uh 10 or 20 stocks are carrying the averages while the the soldiers are retreating.

[00:17:31]Yeah. And that's the function of the Black Rockck ETFs and everybody getting the lowcost ETFs forgoing their voting proxy to a big asset manager like Black Rockck or the others, State Street, etc. um and uh success breeding further success to the point of hypervaluation.

[00:17:50]Is there anything else you would add to that?

[00:17:54]>> Uh I think that that covered it pretty much >> and that should mean that at some point when uh gravity finally bites with the you mentioned such a good point. You said interest rates are rising all forms of traditional valuation I mean we had Amazon going >> based on interest rates.

[00:18:12]>> Yeah. Exactly. All all forms of traditional valuation are based on interest rates.

[00:18:18]>> When interest rates go down, valuations go up. And when interest rates go up, valuations go down. Uh the fact that interest rates have gone, the fact that we have the valuation levels that we have today and interest rates have gone up makes those valuations levels even more absurd.

[00:18:38]>> Correct. It's, you know, the weighted average cost of capital was, you know, the term that that's the basis of every MBA. Uh, and go ahead.

[00:18:48]>> I was just going to say one other thing.

[00:18:50]Uh, you mentioned the everything bubble.

[00:18:52]Understand that the leverage in the gold and silver market and in many commodities is to the downside. It's the short side.

[00:19:00]So, when the bubble bursts, there's going to be some forced buying in gold, silver, and and other commodities.

[00:19:08]Bill, because if you go back to if you go back to 1987 when the market crashed and they used $6 million went into the value line index. That was the only index that was open and that's what turned the market a whopping $6 million.

[00:19:24]They learned that they could control markets with derivatives, with leverage bets. and the the uh president's working group on financial markets aka the plunge protection team.

[00:19:40]>> Yeah.

[00:19:41]>> Has been at it every single day in every single market ever since then. So they've financially engineered this using very small amounts of capital to control entire market pricing structures.

[00:19:59]They they levitated stocks. They they levitated bonds. They levitated I mean real estate was levitated because interest rates had gotten so low.

[00:20:11]But when it comes to real assets like commodities and in particular gold and silver, that leverage is is selling short. In other words, trying to cap the rise in gold and silver to disguise, if you will, the collapse of the currencies.

[00:20:32]So, when the bubble bursts, the ultimate move, you you probably will see a first move downward in gold and silver when everything collapses, but the ultimate move is going to be to the upside because those shorts have to come up and and violently. Now it took me the second take to understand what you were actually saying when you said uh the leverage is to the short side on the metals and that was a beautiful explanation and I want to draw a line under that for everyone uh watching because I haven't heard it put that way but essentially if you've got a dividing line here you've got a floor on this side and a ceiling on this side and they are >> they are co-managed by the same money and the same leverage. The floor is keeping the stock market and all the leverage assets up and the ceiling is keeping the precious metals down. lose the floor, you lose the ceiling. And that's when you get the seessaw suddenly tipped violently uh in that way. And that was a beautiful explanation.

[00:21:27]>> Conversely, conversely, if you lose the ceiling, you lose the floor.

[00:21:31]>> Yeah, it doesn't matter which one's first. Yeah.

[00:21:34]>> Uh that's a Yeah, that was a really fascinating. I love that. Uh the leverage is to the short side on that.

[00:21:40]Just talking of Buffett and the 400 billion, you were mentioning you've probably had a knock on the door, don't you? coach snipping at silver or gold's door too much with that. He's put it, I'm assuming, in the equivalent of money markets and short treasuries. What's to happen in this environment on the traditional money markets and treasuries and then uh I'll let you have the talking stick for a while because I want to end that with a little trailer question to that truck. is my suspicion is the true liquidity despite the massive market cap of the alleged value of the debt markets the true liquidity is actually not very strong at bid and you were talking with derivatives of controlling entire markets with small amounts of capital so Warren Buffett's position just as an expose I think is in short-term treasuries could he get out if he even wanted to if we start to have an escalation in rates and a chronic debasement in too.

[00:22:39]>> Uh, and this is an assumption. I mean, I've not looked at the books. I don't think there's commercial paper in that 400 billion. I think it's basically all direct obligations to the government.

[00:22:51]Um, could they get out? Yeah, they could. They'd probably have to pay some type of haircut, but I wouldn't expect the duration to be any more than 30, 60, 90 days. So, all they'd have to do is wait for the calendar to click over and they'll get paid their cash.

[00:23:06]they'll get paid their dollars, but then the question is, you know, what's that dollar worth? What does that dollar buy versus what it bought 30, 60, 90 days ago? Uh we're at the doorstep of a hyperinflation is is the way I see it.

[00:23:24]So have the stagflation for the mass consumer markets in that as well, which is why our model is hyper stagflation.

[00:23:34]stagflation extreme version because the problem with hyperinflation is the minute you get the extreme rates the whole system as soon as it really gets going everything breaks almost instantly uh this kind of Zimbabwe I see an extreme version of the 70s is that a correct modeling um or how's it play out what do you see going forward in terms of that >> um yeah I think it it it's going to not exactly mirror but very close to mirror the 70s um The bottom line is we're going to have inflation of the things we need like food, gas, probably medical care, uh, and deflation of the things we already have. And the things we already have is going to be a function of the lack of credit and lack of of liquidity.

[00:24:24]Uh the difference between now and the 1970s was in the 1970s the US had a pristine balance sheet. The Treasury did because they had been paying they not paying debt down but the borrowings were were very small as a percentage basis and the economy was growing. So we grew our way, if you will, out from under that the debt problem after World War II >> and a producer nation as well, >> right?

[00:25:00]>> Right. And we were the the biggest producer nation in the world.

[00:25:04]Now that's not the case. We're the biggest uh data nation in the world >> and consumer.

[00:25:11]>> Yeah. And and we we I mean we've offshored our production. The production's gone.

[00:25:20]You're I mean you're you're truly looking at a banana republic from the standpoint of the debt to GDP slash the rule of law. A banana republic.

[00:25:32]The the two requirements are not being able to pay your your bills or your debt and a fraudulent or corroded rule of law. There's no question about it. I mean, it could be argued all day long whether elections have been stolen. You just all you got to do is read the headlines in one day, say this country's a mess.

[00:25:59]And Walsh, by the way, interestingly, uh, which is why I can I can concur entirely with your doubbish, the the phony, uh, hawk, um, is wanting to pivot to a new inflation rate, which actually currently measures the inflation at just over 2%. Where the current measure has it at uh, 3.8, I believe it was, uh, which is well above the the target. So, I I don't know how they managed to sell him as a hawk because it's quite clear he's going to um attempt to and I wonder if the bond market is pricing this in is going to to run a higher inflation.

[00:26:42]>> Yeah, it absolutely is. and world and when I say worldwide uh non US it's it's pricing it in all over the world because inflation's rising and balance sheets sheets across the globe stiff >> I would say this is even more though especially a western uh dilemma in the >> oh yeah absolutely absolutely >> the Chinese debt is actually their rates are going down um as bond quality they're a unique. Uh I wouldn't say the rest of the world is in the in solid at all. And I'm not even saying China is solid that a chronic property bust and probably needed down there, but there is the semblance that they've they're at least in terms of their surpluses doing sound money principalbased uh balance sheet stacking uh whilst the west seems to be allowing the silver to selling the family silver basically to the proverbial. Are we watching the the wealth transfer from west to east and what's your take on that?

[00:27:46]>> We've been watching that for years.

[00:27:48]>> I mean, China imports gold and and western central banks until recently were not buyers of gold. They were, you know, they were leasers of gold. They were sellers of gold. Um, and that breads up another another topic is look at all the nations that are demanding their gold back from the US.

[00:28:14]And then you've got to ask why.

[00:28:18]And the why is simple. It it's confidence. They they're losing confidence in the United States. the US basically stole $300 billion dollars of uh Russian treasury reserves and nations are looking at that and saying hey they can do that to to Russia they can do it to us. So you've got you've got many nations uh India, Germany, France, they're all they're asking for their gold back because they no longer trust the US and for good reason.

[00:28:56]I wonder it's not all going is it all a lot of it's going to London LBMA and then onto China into Switzerland and onto China into UAE and onto China. But I'm wondering are these nations getting it back and does the US have it? uh we can only question >> right we we've not heard of any fails.

[00:29:14]Uh the biggest failed which was not viewed as a fail was Germany back in 2013 asking for their 300 tons of gold and getting a response saying oh well the logistics are too tough. We could get it to you in over three years roughly. Uh I did a study back then. I I looked up what a Boeing 747 cargo plane could carry and they could carry 95 tons.

[00:29:42]So in four plane loads they could have shipped the gold. Now what actually happened was yeah Germany got their 300 tons of gold but it wasn't the original gold.

[00:29:54]>> It was different for >> they all had serial numbers and when they got it back it was not the same bars. H >> why?

[00:30:06]>> Because they were least out.

[00:30:08]>> They were least out. And you remember back in the early Gata days, you know, we talked about this when people told us we were crazy. We were conspiracy theorists, you know, kid foil hatwearing idiots for saying that the governments were leasing gold out. Well, I mean, that's proof right there.

[00:30:30]That's right. So they were making income on other people's assets that they weren't sharing. And then even to the point that they ended up hypothecating that value and had to replace it when asked.

[00:30:40]>> My my response was yeah they they rehypothecated.

[00:30:44]So surely from previous conduct I find it impossible but people still think it's all okay. It's I don't know if it's controlled parties that are funded to give these messages, but surely from history, the Vietnam fraud, there was more dollars than there was gold. They got called on it. It was true. They removed the the the conversion window in gold. These instances, all these points, if you are knowingly knowing all this information, is there anything any other conclusion? And why is it so many people say um the US is good for it when there's a clear history of malfeasants, fraudulent activity, the Cayman Islands, all of these details? How can we not profile and come to the same conclusion?

[00:31:30]I think you and I both agree. But who are these people that maintain, you know, pristine collateral, Tether, the dollar is going to win, it's going to surge, all of these aspects. I I just don't see it.

[00:31:43]>> Yeah.

[00:31:45]their their logic is broken.

[00:31:49]>> I mean, but there's still so many out there and I just wonder are they all funded? Are they all paid to come to those views to tell you stay stay calm and carry on?

[00:31:59]>> Yeah, I'm sure we'll never we'll never know how proof positive, but I'm sure it's paid propaganda.

[00:32:08]>> Yeah. Yeah, it's funded and paid uh propaganda potentially. So uh the when and for people that have been out of the market that are wanting some hope what are your predictions and it's hard I don't know on what basis you would do a number I'm a charter so I have my own charting methodologies but where do you think gold ends at the end of this collapse event uh so the peak bottom you know the spill the the the 2009 moment only far larger I'd imagine along with some elements of the 70s only more extreme green because you're far more indebted. Where does gold end up? And is it more a statement on the dollar than the price? But where would you say in terms of predictions um once the dust is settled on the collapse? And does it also I'm making this a bit of a long question. Sorry, I should make break it up into two. But does it also preclude that we first going to get a demand destroying event, collapse, the stock market collapse, all of this, and they might get a short dip in the the rates and they'll quickly get a bunch of bonds out. Uh, and that we'll have that a further dip in gold and silver before we get to that eventual number that you'll give me your forecast for.

[00:33:20]>> Yeah, you're asking for a final number.

[00:33:23]Um, a it depends on what currency you're asking and questioning, but I'm going to assuming dollars.

[00:33:29]>> Yeah, dollar.

[00:33:30]>> Um, yeah, in in dollars, there's no way to answer that. I I would say uh approaching infinity >> because we first off, we don't know how much gold the US has.

[00:33:43]>> Yeah.

[00:33:43]>> They say 8,300 tons. There's not been an audit since 1956.

[00:33:48]>> Yeah.

[00:33:48]>> Is it half of that? Is there a quarter of that? Is it 10% of that? There's no way to know. So you don't There's one part of the numerator denominator that you don't have.

[00:33:58]>> I'm going to say zero by the time they done. I'm going to say zero.

[00:34:02]>> Then the answer is infinity.

[00:34:04]>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. In dollar terms then it's it is uh virtually infinite because then essentially the current is unbacked, >> right?

[00:34:13]>> Well, it is unbacked.

[00:34:15]>> I mean it doesn't matter whether we have the 8,300 tons or not because that's not even a trillion dollars. and on and off book uh debt and obligations. You're talking $200 trillion.

[00:34:28]So less than a trillion is not going to support 200 trillion.

[00:34:32]>> No.

[00:34:33]>> So the other side of the equation, we have no idea how much new money supply is going to be issued. We have no idea how much new debt is going to be issued.

[00:34:42]There's there's no way to know. But the real answer is it approaches infinity.

[00:34:47]It mathematically the the the debt problem. The debt can't be paid. The money does not even exist for that debt to be paid. So they've got to create more and more and more money supply.

[00:35:03]>> Yeah. And the scale of the derivative markets is a big X factor as well which comes cascading down.

[00:35:09]>> Correct.

[00:35:11]Um so with that uh all in mind um we are what you you're remaining in the states to see this whole process out Bill and the one thing that concerned me is um I was reading the old Rouserelt era because I think you've got to go back and understand your history some lot of detailed narratives about how it all went and how the framing was for people that protected themselves by buying. And one of the core words they use, which is a stigmatizing phrase, is a hoarder. And when you say a hoarder, you are typically saying someone who is greedy.

[00:35:51]That is keeping more than he needs to utilize than he actually needs. So you're implying greed. You're implying also hoarding in that it's not there's there's no current utility for it. In other words, he's just storing it and sitting on it. Um, and there's a stigmatization in each of those uh three things.

[00:36:12]And I was thinking the the wordmanship and you know the the pariah status that they'll look to present the confiscation track record that's already happened once before. I'm expecting the same tools to come back out. Um, it was quite interesting and I'll just tie another analogy. We had Modi say don't buy gold in India and in 1967 you actually had one of the Gandhi uh family members that was head of India 67 saying you're putting pressure on our foreign reserves stop buying gold which is something we should also discuss and then of course that was the buy signal for a decade and a half 13 years of amazing gold uh bull run. So we've literally had the bell rung by Modi pulling the same story of Gandhi uh imploring people that are culturally prone to defend uh their currency even if that's not their initial intention. It's wedding gifts or whatever the case may be. So we've got that uh that aspect to it as well. Um how are you going to deal with the non-history repetitive notion of a possible confiscation and how they may stigmatize us? And also feel free to comment on the the whole India and Modi story as well if you like.

[00:37:28]>> Yeah. And the the confiscation of gold in in the 30s. I mean that's basically a socialistic mo because I mean if they're calling you order you're greedy. You have more than you need. Well it has nothing to do with me. It has to do with what he already produced, what what you've already contributed to society and got paid for your efforts and you decided to quit in gold because it's real money. Um, so that's that's going to it will be a stigmatization, but it's it's unfairly a stigmatization.

[00:38:09]>> But do you see it happening? Because I do. I see the at least the threat of it.

[00:38:14]>> It's hard, >> right? Well, as far as a being a US investor, um, and I've said this for years, if you're going to own gold and you're worried about confiscation, then you need to own free 1933 gold, the liberties in St. Gardens, because those are considered collectibles. They are not booyah. You cannot be considered a hoarder of Booya. You could be considered a a massive collector, but you're not a hoarder.

[00:38:42]>> Yeah. And by law, those are collectibles. Uh that would be a really really tough case for the government to win to be able to confiscate pre-1933 gold. Uh you know how how do they confiscate a stamp collection >> or a gun collection? Yeah. Or whatever other type of collection you're a collector. You're not a you're not a hoarder.

[00:39:07]>> So it say that it's pre which year 90 is it 1993 or uh even before that? I didn't the volume cut out a bit there the signal >> pre 1933 gold >> 1930 >> the rities were were produced I think 19 or 1850 to 1907 and St. guards were produced from 1907 to 1932 or 33.

[00:39:34]>> So on that basis that it affords an additional protection. I'm sure it may well have an additional premium attached to it. But no, >> that was historically historically they've had a 20 to 30% premium over spot and for that reason and right now because you've had you've had uh a lot of selling you're seeing silver you need to buy junk silver below spot now and if you go back three years ago it was $13 over spot. What's happening in in Silva is that the dealers are not holding it. They're any sales they're setting off to refiners are melted down, but the refiners are are are backed up 6 to 8 weeks. So, the dealer doesn't they the dealer pays out, but they don't get paid for 6 to 8 weeks. So, they they crushed the bids. I mean the bids are like eight n $10 under spot and that's the dealers carry that for a month or two and the same thing's happened with the pre-1933 do um there's been a lot of sales of that and that's and this is a function of people selling uh because they need money the the money on the street is is thinning out. You've got people selling and dealers aren't going to hold uh the various issues of the pre-1933 gold.

[00:41:08]They're actually sending those in to be melted. The bids are under spot, which is insane. You can buy them for the same or lesser price than an eagle. So why would you buy an eagle when you can buy a piece of history that will never be produced again? And they, you know, they're producing eagles every year. And again going back to junk silver that stuff hasn't been produced since 1964 and the fact that the the existing supply has put uh refiner 68 weeks backlog builting this stuff down where are we going to be from now where's the supply going to come from they don't vent it anymore.

[00:41:52]>> Yeah. So actually it sounds like a very good recommendation and it sounds you're making a very strong case for >> buy >> buy junk buy junk silver >> yeah buy pre pre1933 gold it's a no-brainer >> excuse my ignorance on the states markets for both those numismatic coins but are they still uh triple 9 or is there a little bit are they a little bit less pure is there a bit of copper in the gold or how does it work is it Is it 39?

[00:42:23]>> Yeah. The >> Yeah. The uh the pre-1933 gold is 9675 of 1 ounce.

[00:42:31]>> Yeah.

[00:42:31]>> That's what you're creating basically spot.

[00:42:34]>> Uh the junk silver and that is not numismatic. Junk's you know ears.

[00:42:40]>> The dimes and quarters are 90% silver.

[00:42:44]So if you buy if you have a $1 face amount is 715 of an ounce.

[00:42:50]That seems like a really useful uh bit of information and intel for everybody to latch on. I if I was in the state side, I that's where I'd be hoovering up.

[00:43:01]>> Yeah. And junk is going to be best. It's the best form for American to own because when this system, it's not a question of if now when the system comes down, you're going to want to have silver because that's you could barter with silver. You really can't bartle with gold because if you do a trade with gold and it's above whatever you're buying now you're issuing the seller credit. He owes you money.

[00:43:28]>> But you could do it with silver and it 14 dimes equals 1 ounce. So you got 14 transactions with one ounce versus one with a silver eagle, a bar, a generic coin, a maple leaf, a crude grand, whatever. Uh, John Silver hands down is the best form for an American to own and it's the cheapest form there is. You can buy it on the spot now.

[00:43:54]>> Yeah. And that's part for the 90% content. Is it by way?

[00:43:59]>> Yeah.

[00:43:59]>> Right. You pay nothing for the comic book content.

[00:44:02]>> Yeah. For the >> white content, you paid nothing. You're only paying for the silver.

[00:44:07]>> Wow. Yeah. That's special. That's super special. That's really interesting uh fallout. And uh I would like all our US listeners which is over half the channel to take note of that top tip from uh US and I thank you for it. It's a real it's a really really interesting one. Um so pre933 gold and junk silver are the value right now.

[00:44:30]>> Correct.

[00:44:32]>> Uh any other while we're mining this because that's super great advice. uh the the hauling aspect. What do you think about I I've been playing with that because it's keeping me up and I know these guys have got a plan for us.

[00:44:45]They know there's stackers. What do you think if you were buying silver? Let's just say you uh were getting the thousand ounce bars and you had a whole bunch of them and you made yourself a bed frame out of silver. Does that because I think it's bars as bullion that's going to very much categorize you as hoarding. um coins where there's some numis even if it's not numismatic per se but it's a it has a number on it you might get a bit what would you say to let's say you built a bed frame or or a chair or or an item of use that happened to be in pure silver you might have to put some metal in it to not tarnish let's just forget the the practicalities let's say I can find somebody who will do the right mix maybe 9010 like the junk silver and you create even a mantle piece or something, you melt your bars. Do you think that might uh that that would then if they came confiscation would point to confiscating an item of furniture, which they're less likely to do uh than if you're just bullion stacking and you have a bunch of thousand ounce bars.

[00:45:50]>> Yeah. Uh it's not going to be just bars. It'll be generic rounds and it'll be foreign sovereigns. It'll be Maple Leafs. It'll be Kubarands. it'll be fillets. Doesn't matter. Um, we have recommended that a coins were minted originally at the US mint.

[00:46:18]The reason being they're selling eagle, gold eagles. If they sell you eagles today, how can they come back to you next week and say, "But you have to sell it back to us." there'd be lawsuits for years and years now of there's not any protection that's you know mel that's another idea um and probably will work but it's it's a lot of effort where I don't think you really need to do that like I said in gold you could either buy eagles and those will be difficult which will be nearly impossible to taliscate on the silver side. You want eagles back to them or junk silver that you know it was a it was I'm a coin collector not a collector but you know I just got 5,000 ounces of them. They will have a very hard problem confiscating US mint lineage coin. They will have zero problem confiscating bars generics and foreign sovereign coin. Um and I don't I think they'll they'll that's the lowhanging fruit and that's what they'll go after.

[00:47:36]>> Okay. Yes. Sorry, the the internet connection had a lot of cutouts there.

[00:47:40]But just to do this the quick summary and correct me if I misspeak. If you're states side, you want states minted coins. In other words, coins sold officially. So that's only eagles.

[00:47:51]Anything from other nations.

[00:47:52]>> True. And any not true.

[00:47:53]>> Yeah. And it'll go South Africa obviously cougar ransar. Canada, you want to own maples. Uh Britannia's in the UK, etc., etc. >> Really?

[00:48:04]>> And then the junk and the and the pre933 gold. Uh yes. Sorry, the the internet connection has been quite sketchy while you were speaking, so there's quite a few cutouts um there. But I think we got the the summary on that.

[00:48:17]>> Yeah. My apolog.

[00:48:26]Um, so bars uh are actually probably one of the most vulnerable and other nation uh cheap coins are the most vulnerable regardless where you are.

[00:48:38]>> Bars are the poorest form of ownership.

[00:48:41]>> They're they'll if there's a confiscation, they will be confiscated.

[00:48:45]>> Yeah. Okay. Good.

[00:48:47]>> How are you going to barter? How with a with a bar? How how is it going to be believed to be real?

[00:48:58]with with silver. If you got junk silver, as long as it says 1964 or earlier on it, that's proof positive shiny. Um, and again with the gold, as long as that you've got a date on it, uh, and it's it's uh graded by PCGS or uh, and uh, NSC.

[00:49:24]As long as it's graded, there's you can actually go to their website and match up the serial number of of the coin that's in that in the plastic case. You can match that up with their website, you know it's real.

[00:49:40]Yeah, but a bar is a bar is the most easily counterfeited of all.

[00:49:48]>> Yeah, makes sense. Uh and that's understood. Excellent. Bill, um final thoughts, um for our listeners, what would you say to keep them focused on the big game and uh to prepare right apart apart from these great comments on what structure you should hold in terms of coins and bars? what what else would you say to them in in advice uh for this coming and we both agree it's inevitable as mathematics uh crisis that's going to befall us.

[00:50:23]>> Yeah. I think uh the most important thing right now is for for people to have the mindset and take the action to protect themselves from a system down scenario. When the system goes down, is it going to go down for two weeks, two months, um, god forbid, six months or more? There's going to be a time where your groceries, will you to get electricity? Uh, will you be able to get clean water? I don't know the answer to the last to the electricity and the water, but you need uh you need a plan B. How are you going to get clean water?

[00:51:04]And if you if you need I mean everyone needs electricity. How are you going to produce it? You have to have contingency plans to go it alone for a period of time because when you dial 911, nobody's going to answer.

[00:51:20]That's right. That's right. That's been amazing. I appreciate uh this chat uh with you, Bill. Let's uh tell everybody how they can engage with you best and what will they get for that uh as an as an old and wise hand in the precious metals market.

[00:51:36]>> Sure. Uh you can go to my website. It's www.billhalter.com.

[00:51:42]Uh there is a contact button there.

[00:51:44]There is also a very good uh prepping section to that. It's called Grizzlies Corner. I I urge people to go to that.

[00:51:51]Um if you want to contact me directly uh for precious metals business uh my my business email is b htbron.me.

[00:52:04]>> Excellent. We'll have those details in uh the YouTube below. Bill, thank you very much uh for your time checking in with us today. Uh we appreciate having you on and have a great week ahead.

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