Volatility and risk are fundamentally different concepts in investing; volatility refers to price fluctuations over time, while risk refers to the potential for permanent loss of purchasing power or value. Traditional financial institutions often conflate these terms, leading to misunderstandings about asset allocation. For example, bonds may not be volatile but can still be risky if they produce negative real returns after accounting for inflation. When adding volatile assets like Bitcoin to a portfolio, investors should consider risk contribution rather than simple percentage allocation, as small increases in volatile holdings can lead to disproportionately larger increases in overall portfolio risk exposure.
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Wells Fargo CEO Warns of MAJOR CRASH | Got Bitcoin?Added:
The Wells Fargo chairman and CEO just warned the United States is due for a crash and that the next major crash is imminent because of our dollar and our debt problems. But like any banker, he doesn't provide meaningful solutions.
Meanwhile, a BlackRock executive just went on Fox Business and said that Bitcoin is a geopolitical and inflation hedge. $12 trillion asset manager Charles Schwab just said that Bitcoin deserves a place in your portfolio and they just educated 40 million of their clients about Bitcoin. Is the rest of the world finally waking up to the fact that Bitcoin is the only way out of this mess and that the government isn't going to save you. Today, we cover why Bitcoin deserves a place in your portfolio, why the geopolitical toothpaste will never go back in the tube. We also cover what the Wall Street execs got right and wrong about Bitcoin in your portfolio and why you shouldn't trust Wall Street.
This is Dante Coco Bitcoin Temple. Let's go.
Huge news that isn't being covered right now. The US Treasury just made three massive liquidity injections in the same week. The Fed injected $5 into markets before they opened last week. The Treasury released $90 to the general account and they just issued the largest debt buyback in history at $15. It used to be that governments didn't inject this much liquidity unless there was something major about to happen, unless something broke. But now this is just regular. This is a signpost of the system that we live in doesn't work anymore. And this is why Wells Fargo CEO and chairman Charlie Scharf just said that the United States economy is due for a massive correction.
>> biggest problem the United States is facing now in the financial service world. The biggest problem that banks have or financial service industry >> into kind of, you know, two different periods, right? Number one is uh we have uncertainty with what's going on with the Iran conflict. Um the markets, it's been a bull market for a long time. There's a huge amount of liquidity in the system. There is this there's this underlying current that things are going to be fine for a long period of time.
I hate to sound like an old person, but there are a lot of people in the financial services space, in banks and outside of banks, that have never been through cycles, like a real cycle in terms of what that means.
And there's a point in which that's going to turn and that's going to have a whole bunch of impacts that I'm not sure we all really understand. Now, Lloyd Blankfein always says, you know, you can think all you want and you have to think about these things, it's usually something that you didn't expect. So, something's going to happen, but then more long-term, it's just the question of the This guy is the CEO of one of the two big-to-fail banks and he's sending us a message. He talks about conflict, crisis, where our deficit is and this is something that Wall Street used to just gloss over.
This is something that even they can't deny anymore and this is why firms like BlackRock believe that we are structurally going to see the next decade of more geopolitical crisis and inflation and why Bitcoin deserves a place in your portfolio. That's at BlackRock Jay Jacobs. Okay, first establish your long-term view of crypto.
Well, Bitcoin in particular is this non you know, non-sovereign global decentralized asset that can really provide value to people's portfolios in small doses as a unique asset. Sort of like how gold doesn't behave like stocks or bonds, Bitcoin is driven by its own rules and its own drivers, predominantly which is greater geopolitical or inflation risk and frankly, we live in a world where these are prevalent risks around the economy where people want to hedge that with different assets.
>> Isn't it interesting? It used to be fringe and now thanks very much in part to Larry Fink, your boss, and I shares coming out with the IBIT uh it this is more than two years ago now that it really became this opportunity for people to understand it. Are you saying now that Bitcoin and crypto are long-term investments? I think you have to look at it through a long-term lens because it's volatile, because we see over weeks, months it can be up and down, people are still trying to figure out what the, you know, what the value of this asset is. But if you zoom out and take a long-term view of the role it can play in a portfolio, it can really be one of those diversifiers that behaves unique from stocks and bonds.
>> When somebody who is Bitcoin curious comes out and says to you, Jay, what is the value? 1 minute in October it's 126,000, today it's 76,000.
You have to look at it in the context of a broader portfolio. We can't put a specific price target on it at any given moment. It really has to do with how much do people need this asset that can behave uniquely, that can be a geopolitical hedge. That's constantly changing around the world. When you see you know, more currency debasement, when you see rising government debts, when you see that more people want to move assets across borders, that's going to increase the value of something like Bitcoin. And so in this world, we see that as a structural trend that's growing, but minute by minute that demand and supply is going to change.
>> Okay, since a lot of Bitcoin curious people do watch this show, let me help you to understand a couple things. What is the value of your home? What is the value of the dollars that you used to purchase your home? Well, your parents probably bought your childhood home, if you were fortunate enough to have parents that were able to do that, for a few hundred thousand dollars, not half a million dollars. But they don't ask these sort of questions about other asset classes. Jay Jacobs says that Bitcoin is a global decentralized non-sovereign asset that operates underneath of its own rules, that gains value in geopolitical crisis, in times when you need an inflation hedge. But you have to notice the leading questions from the interviewer. People conflate volatility with risk. The value of your dollar only goes in one direction, which is down in terms of purchasing power.
Is that volatile? No. Is it risky?
Absolutely. When the cost of retirement is rising, when health care costs are rising, when your property taxes are rising, when your insurance costs are rising, when your gas costs are rising, yet you live on fixed instrument because you're a retirement person. Is that volatile?
No, but it's risky every single day that we move forward with higher costs and a fixed income. This is the dilemma that Wall Street has with Bitcoin is that it's volatile. They conflate volatility with risk, but they're not the same thing. And even though Charles Schwab is doing their best to educate 40 million of their clients about Bitcoin, even they get this wrong. Because they're so volatile, even small amounts could translate to much larger levels of risk.
Let's look at a quick hypothetical example using Bitcoin. A theoretical investor with a moderate risk appetite might split a traditional portfolio 60/40. 60% stocks and 40% bonds.
Stocks consist of almost 100% of the risk in that portfolio because they're far more volatile.
If that investor decides to add an even more unruly asset like Bitcoin, they might only want Bitcoin to make up 10% of the portfolio's risk. According to the Schwab Center for Financial Research, that investor might want to invest no more than 2.7% of their total portfolio in Bitcoin.
An aggressive investor, say they typically put 96% of their portfolio in stocks, might be comfortable with 20% of the portfolio's risk in Bitcoin. That would translate to an allocation of just under 7%.
Other cryptocurrencies like ether are more volatile than Bitcoin. So you may want to consider investing even less.
It's a bit non-traditional to think about it from a risk perspective rather than an overall portfolio percent perspective.
Bitcoin's volatility means it has an outsized risk. It's an exponential relationship. So small increases in Bitcoin holdings can lead to larger increases in overall risk exposure. Let me give you a scenario why this thinking is wrong. AI is volatile. It changes all the time. It's growing so fast, it's rapidly disrupting industries. But does that mean that you shouldn't try to learn it and you shouldn't try to understand it? Do you think that that presents risk to your career and to your portfolio? What about e-commerce? What about the cloud? What about mobile? What about the internet? All of those things were volatile, but not investing in those meant that you didn't keep up with the Joneses and that your portfolio didn't outpace inflation. What about being overweight in asset class like bonds that he talks about, a traditional 60/40 portfolio? Well, bonds have produced negative real returns when factoring in inflation over the past decade. Bonds have lost you money in purchasing power. So you want 40% of your portfolio there? If you have a long time to invest, you should be thinking about Sharpe ratio, which is for every dollar I invest, how much return do I get for the amount of risk that I take?
That's why I love this chart from Strategy on their website. They show you that Bitcoin has roughly the same Sharpe ratio as the S&P 500, meaning that this Bitcoin is too volatile for your portfolio, yet the market is fine, is completely overplayed by Charles Schwab.
Understand the difference between volatility and risk. One of the riskiest things that you can do is not understanding that you don't sell assets that go up in value relative to other assets. The wealthiest people in the world never sell their assets. They hold on to real estate, they hold on to stocks, precious metals, gold, jewelry.
You can do the same thing if you've been stacking Bitcoin. You don't need to sell your Bitcoin. You can borrow from a company like Ledn, which allows you to unlock liquidity from your Bitcoin without selling your Bitcoin with no taxes. The application takes just 2 minutes and you can have fiat in your account in less than 6 hours. They've issued over $10 billion worth of loans to individuals like you and me all across the globe since 2018 and they've never lost a single cent or a sat of customer money. There's no credit checks to get started and remember, you stay sovereign because you still own your Bitcoin. Go to learn.ledn.io/simply to get started. One of the other things that you can continue to do to stay sovereign is by being secure by knowing that you own the assets, your Bitcoin, safely, securely and confidently. You can do that by getting a coach at The Bitcoin Way. Even if you've already set up your own node, your own privacy setup, taking your own keys to un-multi sig and and collaborative custody, well, you can just have a meeting with their team just to make sure that you're doing things the right way, to bounce some ideas off of them, send some transactions. That's what their team is there for, to help you to understand how to manage your Bitcoin and your Bitcoin in the safest, most confident way possible. Schedule a free meeting with the team at the bitcoinway.com/partner/dante-code.
Okay, you know what's risky? Putting your trust in the government to save you. The US Supreme Court just ruled that the administration's rulings and dealings with the US tariffs was illegal. They have to return $160 billion worth of tariffs back to companies, but none of that is going back to you. Somehow there were people in the administration, namely the Lutnicks, who profited from this handsomely. They were buying call options on the fact that the Supreme Court would rule against this administration for 20 to 30 cents on the dollar. There's a party that's always happening that you're not invited to.
This government, and any government, is not here to save you. You know what's risky? Putting your trust in a system that has to borrow against itself in order to sustain its debts. Listen to this master class from Rand Paul.
In government, it's not good to really borrow money for your daily expenses.
So, we bring in about $5 trillion in taxes, but we spend about $7 trillion in spending. So, we spend $2 trillion that we don't have.
The equivalent would be you borrowing money to pay your rent, or having [snorts] a home mortgage, and let's say your your mortgage payment is $700 a month, but then you borrow more money from your credit card to pay your mortgage. Nobody does that because it doesn't end well, and a country shouldn't do it either. Now, we've done it for a long time because we're lucky.
The United States is the, you know, the the biggest player on the block. You know, we have the strongest currency. We are called the world's reserve currency. So, we've been able to borrow money for a long time.
But, I think the day grows closer when all this borrowing will, you know, could lead to our demise or could lead to a crisis in our country.
So, borrowing $2 trillion a day, we have to sell that debt.
Sometimes the American people buy it, so people who are invested in Treasury bills or bonds, about a third of them are Americans. About a third of them are foreigners. So, we actually sell a lot of our debt to China and to other countries that we sell more goods to.
We buy them with dollars, they take those dollars, and they buy our debt.
And then about a third of our debt is bought by the Federal Reserve.
That debt that is bought by the Federal Reserve, you'd say, "Well, that can't be that bad, right?" Well, it's bought with newly created money. The Federal Reserve simply prints up the money, and then they buy our debt. Well, when they print up new money, it devalues the money that's in your pocket. Imagine that the all of the currency was a a million dollars in the country.
And if the Federal Reserve created a million new notes and put them into circulation, eventually the marketplace figures this out and everything costs twice as much. Or in other words, your dollar is half as valuable. So, inflation doesn't really work to make you richer, it actually works to make you poorer. You [snorts] know who's trying to de-risk themselves against the US dollar hedge of money across the globe? China. And just last month, they imported more silver than any country has in the history of the world. Look at that chart.
The geopolitical chaos is not going anywhere anytime soon. You have to understand where you are and why Bitcoin protects you. You have to understand the difference between volatility and risk.
What's a Sharpe ratio? Just by holding more Bitcoin in your portfolio doesn't make your portfolio more risky. You have to position yourself for more uncertainty because through 2030, there's certainly going to be more uncertainty in markets. And if you listen to channels like these, you're going to be prepared.
Subscribe to the channel if you already haven't, and send these kinds of episodes to Bitcoin curious people so they can learn the difference between volatility and risk when they hear that Bitcoin is risky. This is Dante Cocoa, Bitcoin Simply. And if you haven't already started stacking through SAS mining or through Bitcoin mining, you're missing out. Use the QR code to get started with SAS mining. They'll help you to buy a Bitcoin miner, plug it into 100% clean, free, renewable energy, and send sats directly to your wallet. They do all the repairs, all the maintenance, you just get Bitcoin. Use the QR code on the screen to get started. This is Dante Cocoa, Bitcoin Simply.
Happy stacking.
>> [music]
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