THE ONLY BITCOIN ANALYSIS YOU NEED IN THE SHORT TERM

追加: 2026-04-29

[00:00:02][music] >> Yo, what is going on everybody? Welcome back to another Kev Capital video where we spend some time pulling back the curtain on some of the most important charts in the market and what it means for you. Before we jump into the video today, if you enjoy the content, please like, subscribe, and leave a comment below. And also, do not forget to check the links in the description below where you can visit patreon.com/kevcapital and analyze, trade, and invest the markets with me on a daily basis. We are currently running a 50% off promo for all new members for the first month. And with that being said, let's jump right into it. Before we jump into the video, folks, if my voice sounds a little weird, it's because I'm really sick. All right, I don't know how, but in late April heading into the late spring here into the summer, I have um come down with a really, really nasty cold. Um I don't know what it is, but I can't breathe out of my nose. Throat hurts. You know the deal. This is what happens when you have kids and they're always playing in the dirt with their friends, so it's a part of the life.

[00:01:10]But again, let's just jump right into it. That's why I sound a little weird, maybe sound a little low energy. Um but I'm going to do my best to try and deliver you guys some good content going into the into the weekend. So, happy Friday also, by the way. So, let's take a look at Bitcoin here on the 4-hour time frame, right? As we know, right?

[00:01:26]And we've been talking about this in detail, Bitcoin is trading in this rising channel pattern, right? Bear flag, whatever you want to call it, very similar to how we did back in January, okay? We're doing a lot of similar behaviors, right? We got above the 4-hour key EMAs, we did start a nice uptrend. Um but right now, and this is why I want to talk about it, I want you to pay attention really close cuz what's that range we've been talking about? The 74K to 81K range. We are at the top of that range at the moment.

[00:01:56]That top of the range includes the top trend line of this bear flag pattern. If you believe it is a bear flag pattern.

[00:02:02]It also consists of the 21-week EMA and the 20-week SMA on the weekly time frame.

[00:02:07]It also consists of the golden pocket, right? In here, these two yellow lines, and also the 786 fib. Okay, so this is a major level, right? It's a major, major level of resistance. The whole 74K to 81K is a major, major resistance. And Bitcoin has had a really good countertrend rally here, right? What did we talk about in February? I said, "In the late winter, early spring, Bitcoin is going to have a durable countertrend rally. It'll be more durable than the countertrend rally we had in January." So far, that has played out. And so far, that's what it is, right? We don't want to jump the gun, and I know that people are very This is something that alarms me a little bit. It doesn't, you know, make me go crazy, but it's just something we need to keep an eye on.

[00:05:35]When you're exiting a bear market, there's big volume. There's big money flow, right? There's a lot of spot inflow, there's a lot of net money flow, whale money flow. You know it, right? It It really does do a good job at pushing high really fast and then uh and then it baits everyone in, then it comes back and retests. Kind of like what I just showed you with that little drawing. You get a big push to the upside, baits everyone back in, then they get scared cuz you get the retest, but in reality, that's actually a bullish retest and then you head higher.

[00:06:05]But that is usually accompanied by strong money flows. We're not seeing that on this entire move, right? If you go back to April 6th, right? We had the nice increasing money flow here in late March, early April, but now it's just flattened out, right? This is very flat, very lackluster money flow. This is why you're kind of getting that lackluster type of price action. If we go to the whale money flow, right? And this tracks whale money flows. When you go up, that's good. When you go down, that's bad. You can see you're making lower highs, okay? This is right? This tells me that this is the ingredients of what is a standard countertrend rally before the summertime comes, right? That late winter, early spring countertrend rally before you potentially see summertime weakness.

[00:06:47]This is what which is what my thesis has been this whole time. Get that countertrend rally late winter, early spring. You then you then typically get summertime weakness. But just living in the here and now, right? We're not speculating too far ahead. This is why you're getting that kind of lackluster behavior, right? Lower highs on the whale money flow. You're not really getting big net inflows on overall money flow. And what what drives the market, folks? Money drives the market, right? You need inflows of capital. You need it. Willing investors to come in in volume and drive price higher. So, that's why you're kind of seeing what you're seeing, right? You could also see RSI kind of making lower highs here. Even on the daily time frame, if you switch there, you could see just a slight lower high after you're making a higher high in price action. So, just some lackluster behavior here at resistance, okay? So, something to keep an eye on here in the short term. Can we push a little higher?

[00:07:40]I'll show you why we can, but I just think being airing on the side of caution here, right? Is probably the smart thing to do. I mean, what are you going to do, right? Are you going to FOMO in right here and and and hope that, you know, pray pray for rain, you know what I mean? And I wouldn't recommend doing that at the current moment. Just again, treat resistance as resistance until it's not resistance anymore. And when you break that resistance and come back to test it as new support, then we start making it happen, right? Then you start getting excited about things. Let me show you another thing that I've been looking at really closely also.

[00:08:11]Um liquidation heat map, where are you?

[00:08:13]Yep, so if we take a look right here, this is why I still think in the short term, you could potentially get another push higher, right? It look There's still a big block of long a short liquidity up in here, okay? All the way up to about 81.5 to current price really, right? So, right where we're right now, you got a really big block between 79.5 and and 80, okay? Right? There's 617 million cumulative short liquidations at 79.7, right? This zone, you know, it's very possible we take this out, but look what we're also doing, right? We're building up a ton of long liquidity down in here, right? So, you could tell through that net money flow, through that whale money flow, that there's a lot of a lot of long positions that are help pushing price up. That's why you're seeing lackluster behavior. This is a classic ingredients of lackluster net money flow, lackluster whale money flow.

[00:09:06]However, price still pushes up while creating some divergences. What does that tell me? That tells me that most of the price action you're seeing at the moment is liquidation hunts on shorts, right? People keep shorting every level of resistance, and you keep seeing price get pushed up to then liquidate those shorts. But in the meantime, from a perp's perspective, you're seeing long positions now be opened to the downside. This is classic low volume, lackluster money flow behavior. It's very perp's driven, not very spot driven, okay? So, those are just little red flags that you typically see in a countertrend rally within a higher time frame downtrend. Now, if we were beginning a new higher time frame uptrend, and we were breaking the downtrend, breaking the bear market, and going into something new, you would still see these leverage positions, okay? So, it's not like they just wouldn't exist. There's always going to be leverage in the system, but you would see very strong net money flow, also.

[00:10:03]You would see, you know, very strong whale money flow, also. It would be accompanied all together in one basket, not just, you know, you're missing two ingredients and you have one ingredient, and that one ingredient is not the healthiest ingredient. So, that's basically what I'm trying to tell you folks, right? So, that's why I'm saying in the short term, yep, countertrend rally is continuing. I don't want to speculate too far beyond that. I want to roll with my prediction for now because, right, I don't want to make one nice call and then and then make a crappy call, right? I'm going to say that in the short term we should hang around here for a little bit. Do we come up and liquidate those last longs? Very possible, but just be a little cautious here, okay? Just be a little cautious here in the short term.

[00:10:42]You are entering into that big resistance zone after seeing this nice countertrend rally from March all the way through this month, right? It's a very solid month for Bitcoin. I think it Let's take a look here. It's up about 23%, right? Really, really solid, but now you are entering into the top of the bear flag, the golden pocket, the 786, if need be, the 200 SMA and EMA,.5 fib.

[00:11:04]Just be a little careful up here. You've seen the liquidity, you've seen the money flows. I showed you all the momentum indicators that you need to see. And And that's basically it, right?

[00:11:12]So, we're just going to have to sit here and wait and see what Bitcoin does. If Bitcoin does come up and start showing some real force and and we move up higher and come back and retest, then then that'll be accompanied by the ingredients we need, and that is strong money flows, strong momentum from whales and net money flow retail, right? More participants in the market. But, if it keeps doing what it's doing right now, and we keep seeing lackluster money flows, keep chugging higher to liquidate shorts, but you're opening you're seeing a lot of perps positions, a lot of long positions below, right? Very leverage-driven market. That's typically not healthy. That would lead me to believe that there's going to be a rejection in here. So, that That's what I'm watching for, really. I'm not even really watching the price action too much. I'm watching those indicators really closely. So, with that being said, if you guys enjoyed the video, if this helped you out, please again, like, subscribe, and comment below. And also, again, do not forget to check the links in the description below where you can obviously do this with me in a much more granular fashion on a day-by-day basis in the Patreon at patreon.com/kevcapital.

[00:12:10]With that being said, I hope you guys have a nice weekend. Peace out.

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