Trading Gold, Bots & Market Psychology| Alvin Karumba

Added: 2026-05-30

[00:00:00]Are you already is taking your job?

[00:00:01]Because cloud is good.

[00:00:03]>> Cloud is good.

[00:00:05]>> Cloud is really good. That $20 we can >> when you look at companies, there are certain financial rules they follow. If they have good governship, if they are having good customer service, >> then their share price will go high.

[00:00:17]Like I said, I like money. But positively, positively, >> it's not a bad thing. Everyone likes money.

[00:00:23]>> Right now, cost of fuel is up there. You need it. You either pay the fuel or you save and find a way to cost cut. Between a win streak or a losing streak, which one scares you the most?

[00:00:36]>> For me.

[00:00:50]Hello traders. I hope you're having a wonderful May uh wherever you are and uh from the last episode I think in the last episodes rather we have he had a couple of interesting personalities and uh within different fields from fund managers, financial markets analyst and uh today as we speak we have a new FOMC chair Kevin Wash. So for those who are used to Jerome Powell, his time is coming to an end until Kevin Wash is is sworn in and uh definitely the next FOMC if you're used to good afternoon. You never know. Hopefully it will be an interesting 4year term for Kevin Wash for those who follow fundamental markets. Yet another episode I have another trader um and uh I think today's episode might be interesting uh given he does two things which I know a lot of traders whom I've have had conversations with do as well. Uh software engineer but also a trader on the side and building something in the financial industry. Um maybe you can introduce yourself for those who don't know you.

[00:01:55]Well, hi everyone. My name is Alvin Karumba, a software engineer by profession but a financial enthusiast.

[00:02:03]>> Okay.

[00:02:03]>> By hobby.

[00:02:05]>> So you trade just to to to >> Yes. Yes. I I love money.

[00:02:10]>> Okay.

[00:02:10]>> So I I I I work to find inefficiencies in the market.

[00:02:17]>> Okay. Um and I work to find to basically pull myself up in the financial space.

[00:02:25]>> Okay. So which one is the main one?

[00:02:28]Software engineering and uh which one came first in a way that you said you love money that gave you that that money and then you're like okay I'm doing this while also you know.

[00:02:37]>> Ah okay. I I'm more of an entrepreneur.

[00:02:40]>> Okay.

[00:02:41]>> So which came first? I it started the software engineering bit. I went to school, >> good school, Moringa.

[00:02:48]>> Okay.

[00:02:48]>> Um that's why I got the the fundamentals to learn what to do what I actually do which is more on automating >> trades.

[00:02:58]>> Okay.

[00:02:58]>> Yeah.

[00:02:58]>> And uh so you you code. How did you find yourself into the forex market?

[00:03:02]>> Into the forex market. So >> must have started with my friends at I remember his name is Kevin.

[00:03:09]>> Hi Kevin.

[00:03:11]>> Yes.

[00:03:12]um he introduced me to the financial markets.

[00:03:15]>> Mhm.

[00:03:15]>> One day we were having class and in the middle of class he would he would frequently check his phone.

[00:03:22]>> Okay.

[00:03:22]>> So after class I just approached him. Hi bro, what what you doing? Um during class it looks interesting.

[00:03:29]>> Yeah.

[00:03:29]>> And that's when he actually introduced me to the financial markets. Yeah.

[00:03:33]>> He sent me a bigger Kevin. You sent me my first PDFs on um trading. Mhm.

[00:03:40]>> taught me everything actually, you know, from fair value gaps to market inefficiencies, >> everything pretty much.

[00:03:46]>> Okay.

[00:03:47]>> Yeah. That's where it started, >> right? And what kept you in what what was that big big payout or or big withdrawal that you say, "Okay, now I'm good. Now I'll stick to it."

[00:03:58]>> Well, for me, it wasn't even it's not even about the payout, per se.

[00:04:03]>> Yeah. For me it is it has been about um again it's about the the thrill of actually finding inefficiencies. I I don't know how to emphasize it enough.

[00:04:16]>> Mhm.

[00:04:16]>> But like if you're able to predict something and it comes to play I'm a big math >> okay >> fun.

[00:04:24]>> Yeah.

[00:04:24]>> And a good chunk of what programming is is actually math.

[00:04:29]>> Yeah. It is basically logic onto showing how something works.

[00:04:36]>> Yeah.

[00:04:37]>> And that is actually what it looks like for me in the financial markets. So I actually predict this is what happens.

[00:04:43]>> Mhm.

[00:04:43]>> Then it actually happens.

[00:04:45]>> Okay.

[00:04:45]>> Through obviously um going through the data I have >> and back testing the strategies I have.

[00:04:52]>> You're the first person to mention that uh it is not the payout that >> Yeah.

[00:04:57]that kept you in.

[00:04:59]>> Yeah, it will never pay.

[00:05:00]>> Yeah. So, it means you have an edge in the market itself. In that case, uh given you had PDF, he has taught you everything. Um and you're looking at inefficiencies, FVGs and the rest. Which are those maybe time frames and uh that you use that determine or give you the age in a way that when you predict you're able to have a higher probability of your prediction being right.

[00:05:21]>> Oh, interesting. So when I when I do trade physically in person that is >> um how I do it is I go onto the higher time frames >> I I try and figure out what is happening on the higher time frame where the liquidity is sitted at >> um and basically where I mean the the markets follow the money right >> so I basically try and figure out on the higher time frame where is the money sitted So I got my 4 hours. I go to my one day. Actually I go to my one day. I draw my my um basically my support and resistance levels.

[00:06:01]>> Yeah.

[00:06:02]>> Then I go now lower to the lower time frames about 15 minutes is actually as low as I go. And then based off that now I am able to predict what is happening at that time and then do what um the market is telling me at that moment.

[00:06:20]>> Okay. Yeah. So, so do you time a specific time of the day, London open, New York open, you know. Um, and does whenever you are trading, is it specific ti specifically tied to one currency pair or or one commodity or one index or it can apply across both?

[00:06:42]>> I am a big fan of fundamentals.

[00:06:46]>> Yeah.

[00:06:46]>> Financial fundamentals >> in the financial markets. Yeah.

[00:06:51]>> Um, hence why I am drawn to commodities and gold in specific. Haven't tried oil but I am looking into oil.

[00:07:00]>> Yeah.

[00:07:00]>> And the beauty is that >> even when you look at companies there are certain financial rules they follow.

[00:07:09]If they have good governship, if they are having good customer service, then their share price will go high. Yeah.

[00:07:17]And that's the same approach I take when approaching the financial markets, the commodities market specifically, where I'll check gold, I'll check what's actually happening with the banks because the banks do set um the basically the USD value.

[00:07:34]>> Yeah.

[00:07:35]>> So I'll check is what is the government doing? Because you already know the supply of gold is fixed in the world.

[00:07:41]>> Yeah. So tight whatever the government does is what will push the price of USD higher or lower.

[00:07:48]>> Okay.

[00:07:48]>> So I I approach it from a an economist point of view put plainly.

[00:07:55]>> Yeah.

[00:07:56]>> So in your case technicals I mean you have said you're a fan of fundamentals.

[00:08:00]Do technical analysis I mean the time frame do it. Maybe I should ask this question correctly.

[00:08:05]>> Mhm.

[00:08:06]>> You have said you look at fundamentals and what governments are doing. are there websites or you know resources that you use so that you can be able to know what the banks are doing the ones which you can share for somebody who is yet who is like looking at um where can I get this data but even more importantly how do fundamentals like you said even if you are not an economist or remotely um following how economist think how do you relate the two information in a way that you can be able to execute on your charts >> that's an interesting question so where actually get my I I am pretty obsessed.

[00:08:41]So I don't even check websites anymore.

[00:08:44]>> Okay.

[00:08:44]>> I actually open um I watch my news.

[00:08:47]>> Okay.

[00:08:48]>> And so that's your Bloomberg specifically Bloomberg for me.

[00:08:53]>> Yeah.

[00:08:53]>> And then >> so from day break.

[00:08:55]>> Yes.

[00:08:55]>> Especially the Okay. pretty much I would I've had a problem with people I'm staying with cuz I would wake up in at like 4 and just you know switch on Bloomberg >> Asia open then >> yes yes >> that with Asia open London open European open and then uh by around 12 midday >> yes then pretty much till 4 around 3 when actually having the the New York >> sessions >> so I would I sit I I get to it's not really about the money, >> it's about the people who are trading.

[00:09:34]>> Okay.

[00:09:35]>> When you listen to how the economists are thinking about things, then you get a new perspective to things.

[00:09:41]>> Yeah.

[00:09:42]>> And so that's how I approach it. Uh-huh.

[00:09:46]>> Um how it en how it enables me to make my trades is what happens is um how I think about it rather is it isn't about opening here and closing here if the if they have said they have said um depending on what news was talked about >> this is the most probable trend >> um especially during those those spikes.

[00:10:16]>> What I do, I just and this is how I like trading. I I I don't leverage too much.

[00:10:22]>> I like I leverage a little, but I give myself enough room for the markets to play.

[00:10:28]>> Yeah.

[00:10:28]>> At the end of the day, the markets do their own thing.

[00:10:31]>> Yeah.

[00:10:31]>> Right.

[00:10:32]>> So, I give my I I kind of I kind of swing on a daily basis >> if it makes sense.

[00:10:38]>> Yeah.

[00:10:38]>> Part I am swinging part trade, which is I am not I'm not leveraging too much. I am just leveraging enough for a single trade >> to see if what they said actually is right.

[00:10:49]>> Okay.

[00:10:50]>> Yeah, that's how I do it.

[00:10:51]>> So you you basically look at maybe some of because some of the guests whom they host are mostly um either fund allocators, head of trading within those departments, chief economist, um wealth managers, sometimes treasury secretaries from different countries and stuff like that.

[00:11:10]>> Okay. Now, uh, how many years have you been trading now?

[00:11:15]>> Okay. In all honesty, it's been about what about 2 years?

[00:11:20]>> Uhhuh.

[00:11:20]>> With a couple of breaks inside.

[00:11:23]>> Okay.

[00:11:23]>> But generally about 2 years.

[00:11:25]>> Okay.

[00:11:26]>> Now, when you started trading, was it um, you know, funded externally or propers or you know uh somebody getting you a loan? How did you get started?

[00:11:37]Given you have Kevin already taught you >> and now you have to get the real and you are swinging trading. So that means in as much as you're not leveraging it means you need to have sufficient capital for you to trade.

[00:11:48]>> Yes.

[00:11:48]>> So how do you balance that?

[00:11:50]>> So um okay good question.

[00:11:53]I have done a couple of things.

[00:11:56]>> I'm an entrepreneur at heart. Like I said I like money but positively.

[00:12:01]Positively >> it's not a bad thing. Everyone needs money. right now cost of fuel is up there. You need it. You either pay the fuel or you save and find a way to cost cut.

[00:12:11]>> Very true.

[00:12:11]>> Yeah.

[00:12:13]>> So, yes. Um, so I've done a couple of things. I have I have selfunded.

[00:12:18]>> Mhm.

[00:12:19]>> I have traed proforms.

[00:12:21]>> Yeah.

[00:12:21]>> I haveed investors money.

[00:12:23]>> Yeah.

[00:12:24]>> Quote. Um but primarily what actually I did for a very long time was actually the investors part. Yes, that was actually what I did for a very long period where we okay we were trying to basically create a group a community of traders who >> are funded externally.

[00:12:47]>> Okay. So we organized we we got we created a group created like we we poured in some proper cash.

[00:12:56]Unfortunately didn't go very well.

[00:12:58]>> Mhm.

[00:12:59]>> Um >> how many dollars?

[00:13:03]>> How many dollars?

[00:13:04]>> Thousands of yeah. Okay. We he must have burnt through like seven how much? 7,000.

[00:13:14]>> Mhm.

[00:13:16]>> Yeah. between our two investors.

[00:13:18]>> Uhhuh.

[00:13:19]>> We burnt through about over I feel like it's close to $10,000.

[00:13:26]>> Okay.

[00:13:28]>> Unfortunately, again, unfortunately because the people we actually working with as well weren't as um given towards the course.

[00:13:38]>> Okay.

[00:13:38]>> Um which is challenge we actually found with every trader we went through.

[00:13:43]>> Okay. where once you trade you want to if if it goes through well and good if it doesn't go through you want to make back whatever losses you made.

[00:13:50]>> Yeah. Revenge trading.

[00:13:51]>> Yeah. Revenge trading pretty much you're trading on emotions.

[00:13:54]>> Yes.

[00:13:56]>> So we did put a post on that.

[00:13:58]>> Um but we are looking to revive it with the program we are trying to run.

[00:14:02]>> Okay. Yes.

[00:14:03]>> So so how many were you who were actually executing the trades and oh sorry we were about you about about uh 8 to 10.

[00:14:15]>> 8 to 10. So those are the ones who had access to the trading account. Okay. And now given you have banned 10,000 of you know two investors and obviously your own capital.

[00:14:23]>> Yeah.

[00:14:24]>> How do you speak back to you know because they have been saying a lot of things out there scams and everything and and and uh due to such events how do you go back to the investor and tell them okay we have lost your money. Do you plan to pay them? Do you how do you address such a situation?

[00:14:40]Well, contracts are very important.

[00:14:43]>> I I'll say contracts are very important.

[00:14:46]>> Okay.

[00:14:46]>> Um you graced enough to have very kind investors who understood um >> what the risk that was came with investing into the financial markets.

[00:14:58]>> Yeah.

[00:15:00]>> But through um through burning through that amount, >> you graced by kind investors.

[00:15:06]>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. We had very um kind investors. They actually understood >> u they we also after taking audit we did take account of where we went wrong which is basically the type of investors uh type of traders we are having on our on our community >> and some of this is what we actually looking to as we are restructuring and trying to bring that back.

[00:15:33]>> Okay. Yeah. Now given what you have gone through um and the years you have traded would you say it was too early for you to make that decision or uh right now as you continue to engage with the business you are approaching it in a more maybe after the auditing refining those who are actually have the rights to execute.

[00:15:54]Um was it too much excitement and and or were there those people who are saying you know demo traders you have done a lot of demo you've made 100k And then now you are you are projecting yourself as an experienced trader. Has it is it that now you have people who have let's say a track record you are viewing maybe be it their my FX book performance or their MT5 MT4 trading statements. Is that how you are going about it right now so that you avoid such a situation but also you're able to bring value not only to yourself and also to your investors >> investors as well. Um good question. Um, so I am a systems guy and I'm quite ambitious.

[00:16:37]>> Yeah.

[00:16:38]>> In way sometimes I I actually question myself is this thing going to work?

[00:16:42]>> Yeah.

[00:16:43]>> So was it early? Yes, it was quite early. Um, >> we had Okay. The people we actually were involved in had a good track record. We did we did run them demos before they actually invested actual money.

[00:16:57]>> Okay.

[00:16:57]>> And they did prove to make profit. Mhm.

[00:17:02]>> During the time when we allocated the funds to them, there was a bit of a mishap.

[00:17:09]>> Um I think it was during it was during a period where gold was very tricky and that's most that's actually what most of them were trading.

[00:17:17]>> Okay.

[00:17:19]>> Again, the markets do what they want to do.

[00:17:23]>> So we understood we all we all came to the conclusion that it wasn't our time.

[00:17:29]>> Okay. We had made profits actually. We had actually made about what $1,000 to $2,000 in profits.

[00:17:37]>> Okay.

[00:17:38]>> Before now burning through everything else after >> after. Okay.

[00:17:43]>> Um but yes, it was a bit ambitious. I was a bit too early.

[00:17:48]>> H the systems could have done better.

[00:17:50]>> Okay. Um to answer the second question, yes, how we going about it differently is actually the program we are about to run which is how we doing it is we're basically allowing investors to make automated decisions.

[00:18:08]>> Okay.

[00:18:09]>> To some extent we did realize that the whole reason why we burnt through as much as we did was emotional trading.

[00:18:21]And so we made the executive decision of taking that out completely.

[00:18:26]>> Okay.

[00:18:27]>> However, we did decide we'd want to assist traers like the ones we had >> previously.

[00:18:35]>> Mhm.

[00:18:36]>> Um by offering them a service.

[00:18:39]>> Okay. And what this actually looks like other than us automating trades and back tested trades uh back tested strategies for investors >> who just want they don't want to know too much. They just want to plug and play.

[00:18:54]>> Okay.

[00:18:54]>> So we created a we creating a system for that.

[00:18:57]>> Okay.

[00:18:58]>> As well we creating a system for signals.

[00:19:01]>> Okay.

[00:19:02]>> Which is simply takes a couple of rules.

[00:19:05]um depending on your rules, you can back test the rules or previous data over long periods of time.

[00:19:11]>> Okay.

[00:19:12]>> And then once you're comfortable with that specific signal >> and tied to those specific rules, then you can actually take that and be trading that.

[00:19:21]>> Okay. So, so what I'm getting is maybe a b or an service. Yeah, >> pretty much. It's more like AI.

[00:19:27]>> You believe that you can take human emotion out of trading?

[00:19:32]We >> because in as much as yes boats can work from experience >> they can go overdrive you know especially let's say um we have seen sometimes either escalation of Iran Israel war and therefore gold doing even up to 1500 pips in a second or even in 5 minutes and sometimes if the strategy has a martinale embedded on it >> as it tries to recover especially you know trying to to get those pullbacks >> Mhm. M >> you end up blowing your account because it enters the wrong trade even though it is logical meaning maybe it has reached a resistance zone or something like that it makes the opposite decision while human beings sometimes emotionally >> you you can be able to see okay momentum is here so you know press press maximize a lot on that you know um uh spike and then now put a trailing stop loss to to close automatically maybe what uh 30 pips up the stop loss moves another half of whatever uh price movement goes.

[00:20:34]>> Now you have now created a system uh supposedly how do you know okay this system that I've created will beat if I were the one who was doing it even using things like pending order how what leads you to such a decision is it maybe back and forward testing a couple of times >> or uh how do you approach it?

[00:20:57]>> So good that's that's an amazing question. Um so we have two systems. The first one doing rules and providing signals. We'll come to that for the automation bit.

[00:21:08]>> We are not doing the your typical um how do you call it >> basically your mingale basically your your form of um >> breakout retest.

[00:21:22]>> Yeah. Actually what we we are following price action.

[00:21:25]>> Okay. We are a group of three soft engineers who also doing trading.

[00:21:30]>> Okay.

[00:21:30]>> One of us who's doing the automation bit actually he has been trading for about 3 to 5 years.

[00:21:36]>> Okay.

[00:21:36]>> And he came up with an entire panther of like of of of strategies.

[00:21:44]>> Mhm.

[00:21:44]>> Um I don't know they there are quite many.

[00:21:48]>> Okay.

[00:21:49]>> Then he back tested them over data over years.

[00:21:52]>> Okay. And based off that he was able to come up with a single system that works for every these are trade secrets but yeah it works for the market um over long periods of time.

[00:22:07]>> Okay.

[00:22:07]>> So there are rules. Okay.

[00:22:10]Yes are not perfect but if you give them the right conditions >> okay >> they will give you the output you actually want.

[00:22:18]>> Okay.

[00:22:19]>> And that's basically what you're doing.

[00:22:20]We are not only are we we are creating a board that actually simulates human behavior because it it purely it purely um checks price action.

[00:22:32]>> Okay.

[00:22:33]>> Um you're obviously going to we V2 will also incorporate a bit of AI but it's purely price action. Now the reason I'm asking that is because one of the questions I'm sure even for those who join bullish B events is should I use a boat? What do you think about a boat?

[00:22:52]>> Personally, I may be biased.

[00:22:56]Yeah, which is okay. But I don't mind it because I've seen it work for other people significantly. Well, now would you recommend that to a beginner or somebody who is looking because unfortunately those who look for it are going for quick wins like ah okay it can work okay so and we have seen a lot of it advertised out there and then people put in even their savings and then they end up crying. So in as much as we building this boat and uh maybe in however long or whenever next time we meet we'll see how it works. uh how do you address a person who is interested in it but not no idea how >> to approach it >> don't go for B don't go for BS if you're a beginner okay if you are new to the market >> um and the reason is again both give you the the required output with the correct parameters >> at the end of the day it's it's an if statement.

[00:23:57]>> Yeah.

[00:23:57]>> Um if this then do this, right?

[00:24:00]>> Okay.

[00:24:01]>> Um and for us before getting here, this is this is actually these are strategies we have been it's not just you not just buy sell. No, it's no longer that.

[00:24:13]>> Yeah.

[00:24:13]>> These are actually strategies we have been testing back testing for a long period of time. M >> why we are confident in what we actually outputting right now is because after testing it over couple of years it's been giving a significant return >> okay >> every year >> okay >> so yes if you're new to the markets I think the most important thing to do is is learn about them read as much as you can about them listen to as many podcasts as you can about them >> actually f get get your fundament fundamentals, right?

[00:24:50]>> And then if then you'd want to to to use B. It won't be for because they can trade better than you.

[00:24:58]>> Yeah.

[00:24:59]>> Purely either because you want to remove the emotional bit completely out of it cuz that's actually >> how it came up.

[00:25:06]>> Okay.

[00:25:06]>> Because we were like we good at trading but >> if a certain point you want to like get out of the trade. Yeah.

[00:25:12]>> So either because you want to remove the emotional bit out of it completely >> or you just you simply want an automation that you don't have to be checking every time.

[00:25:25]>> Yeah.

[00:25:26]>> Yeah. I think MT5 right now for those who have you know combed through it there's a lot of ways you can I mean with the right now cloud you can build an indicator you can build a bot back test it as long as you can within the MT5 PC ecosystem or trading view or other third party um uh back testing tools >> and that gives you what enough tools for you to know whether whatever you've built actually can deliver results you are desiring on the live now there is the other part both are expensive expensive in terms of you need a it's capital intensive. Uh some would prefer a minimum of maybe $1,000. When you're building such systems, are you looking at a specific amount as a starting capital? Are you looking at it for efficiency? meaning that even with say $500 it can work or you're looking for you know uh we call them alphas >> you know 10k and then because I know I've spoken with a trader who is like doing 100k and what they do is it can even do one or two trades in a week and that >> one trade or two is enough for him to make enough to sustain him at least for another two months you have paid your rent you have paid your flight ticket because maybe you're going for vacation or something so how are you approaching that as you build your your system. Oh, that's actually interesting. So, >> trade secrets again. But it's okay. My my >> by the time it is launched, it will be one month ahead.

[00:26:49]>> This is this is good. Then you can actually check us out by that time. Um but how we doing it? Um for us, we are basing it off days.

[00:26:58]>> Yeah, >> we only taking two two trades a day.

[00:27:01]>> Um based of those two trades, whether they are good or bad, the B goes out.

[00:27:05]>> Okay.

[00:27:06]>> After those two trades.

[00:27:07]>> Okay. However, over a certain over a period of time, >> of actually an year, >> we realized that the return is net positive.

[00:27:16]>> Okay.

[00:27:17]>> And so that's what we are we are banking on.

[00:27:20]>> Okay.

[00:27:20]>> A net positive over a long period of time.

[00:27:23]>> Okay. Quick questions here. Between a win streak or a losing streak, which one scares you the most?

[00:27:31]>> Well, for me, >> I I feel like it's the win streak.

[00:27:36]>> Why? I mean, you're making money.

[00:27:39]>> Yes. And that's the that's the problem because once once you know you're losing, then okay, >> how do I put it?

[00:27:50]>> Losing comes with ah it didn't happen how I wanted it to. Yeah, >> but next time I'm going to a form of improvement. I'm going to do better. I'm going to learn from what I did.

[00:28:02]>> Okay.

[00:28:03]>> With the main tricks then it is like oh it worked. Is it going to work next time? If it works the next time, then is it going to work the the next time? So, it's not it's not purely progressive per se. And that's why it scares me.

[00:28:16]>> Okay.

[00:28:16]>> Because you don't learn from the win streaks.

[00:28:18]>> Okay. All right. Second question. Um, for traders who have been doing it for maybe 1 year, 1 month, either way, this is what comes much a lot. Is it the broker? Is it the setup? Um, is it the the platform? you know MT5 MT4 trading view which one determines which one matters actually the most in your trading >> is it is it the broker >> is it the broker is it the platform whether be it M4 M5 um trading view uh match trader ATC or is it the chart setup >> it's the chat setup >> broker doesn't matter spreads >> spreads don't matter because if you actually manage your risks right >> and you target your Right? Like you target right.

[00:29:05]>> Mhm.

[00:29:06]>> Target your profits right then it doesn't depend like it is independent of whether you use MT5 MT4 trading view whatever >> your trades will go through.

[00:29:20]Spreads are negligible to some extent they become significant when you're overleveraging >> emotions again.

[00:29:27]>> Yeah >> it's always a setter for me.

[00:29:31]>> Okay. Uh another question you mentioned earlier that um you look at sharper ratio maybe you can explain to those who are not familiar with sharper ratio what is >> before I ask the next next question.

[00:29:40]>> Well put is it's basically when you want to evaluate how good a when you want to evaluate how good your automated system is. It is it is basically a standard a world standard for making sure um your boat your automated system is good enough the being three if I'm not wrong >> so if your sharp ratio doesn't get if your bot doesn't get a sharp ratio of three or your automated system doesn't >> it's it's somewhat not doing good but if it does then it's going good put simply >> right Now given you've done it for 2 years and uh unfortunately there was a 10k uh situation have you still traded since then?

[00:30:27]>> Oo good question. So what happened?

[00:30:32]So we did we did pause as as an entire community.

[00:30:36]>> Oh okay >> and that's what we've been restructuring thinking.

[00:30:40]>> Yeah. But individually >> individually I have I have been involved in more of the coding bits more of engineering.

[00:30:48]>> Uhhuh. So yeah, but I'm still I'm still actively there.

[00:30:53]>> Okay. Now whenever you let's say before you pause, I'm sure you're looking to get into the markets whenever you will be when do you say when you have the minimum capital you can say okay this one stops being a hobby and now it becomes like a real business. Do you have that number?

[00:31:09]>> So here's my thing right?

[00:31:11]>> It's a very simple question.

[00:31:16]I am I am somewhat I am a I am a strong believer >> in believing in yourself.

[00:31:26]>> Mhm.

[00:31:27]>> So for me if if you get for me it's been if you're able to get a strategy that works time and over again then the capital doesn't really matter. But the amount now to peg an amount to it.

[00:31:42]>> Yeah. of >> you know a stepping stone.

[00:31:45]>> A stepping stone.

[00:31:46]>> Yes.

[00:31:47]>> A good return on investment is 10%.

[00:31:49]>> Okay.

[00:31:51]>> We talking 10% over a million dollars and >> Okay. 10% over a period of x amount of um actually is usually over a year.

[00:32:03]>> Okay.

[00:32:04]>> 10%.

[00:32:04]>> Okay. So, are you comfortable with making um with making $1,000 a year?

[00:32:13]>> Mhm.

[00:32:13]>> Are you comfortable with making $10,000 back a year?

[00:32:17]>> Okay.

[00:32:18]>> So, for me, I think and hence why the strategy >> Okay. Cuz if your net if your net profits >> are positive, >> Yes.

[00:32:30]>> then over a period of of an year, if you can just make 10%.

[00:32:36]>> Mhm.

[00:32:37]>> Then you're good to go.

[00:32:38]>> Okay.

[00:32:38]>> So based off that, I think when you say $10,000, I don't think it will be sufficient.

[00:32:48]putting into perspective I'm also thinking from the perspective MMFs >> okay >> the rates I'm I'm looking at it as an entire industry >> so you're trying to beat the industry first before you now whatever top two or three or 10% you make on top of it it means you're doing okay >> yes >> okay now so say given you are a trader yourself you're a software um you know developer and everything are there other >> instruments within the financial markets whereby you are putting your loot boot after you have looted them these other markets, >> you know, >> trade secrets. Um, okay.

[00:33:25]Ah, well, in all honesty, uh, the effects markets are pretty impressive.

[00:33:30]>> Yeah.

[00:33:31]>> High risk rewards.

[00:33:34]So, for low risk, low rewards kind of setups. Um, the MF are perfect.

[00:33:40]>> Yeah. you raise.

[00:33:41]>> Some people don't consider MMFs at all as investments and they hold strong opinions on it. I'm sure for some of you you if you have been tuning in some of the guests have said not but it's okay.

[00:33:53]>> Yeah.

[00:33:54]>> To each their own. Yeah.

[00:33:55]>> Yeah. Yeah.

[00:33:56]>> Okay. All right. Now are there some assets whereby in the market you don't touch at all or personally don't? I don't like I don't like trading currency against against currency.

[00:34:11]>> Why? It's a lowrisk patient time in the market pays.

[00:34:17]>> Here's the thing.

[00:34:18]>> Uhhuh.

[00:34:19]>> With gold with oil, the value is is already standard.

[00:34:23]>> So the value of whatever is pegged to it is like it's purely based of the government or the government of the bases.

[00:34:30]>> Okay.

[00:34:33]They changed the the chair the other day.

[00:34:36]>> Yeah.

[00:34:36]>> That had an effect on USD, not gold.

[00:34:39]>> Yeah.

[00:34:39]>> It had an effect on USD.

[00:34:41]>> Yeah.

[00:34:42]>> There is a war in in Iraq.

[00:34:44]>> Yes.

[00:34:45]>> Between US and Iraq.

[00:34:46]>> Yeah.

[00:34:47]>> That changes the value of the USD, not gold.

[00:34:49]>> Yeah.

[00:34:50]>> However, when it comes to currency against currency, >> there's what happens is say there's a war in Iraq. Just the same setup, right?

[00:34:59]>> Yeah.

[00:35:00]But so something happens to the price of USD and maybe based off that the price of USD goes maybe lower and the price of JPY goes higher >> but something happens inside China again that we are not previous to and that pushes the price of of JPY lower and then now it kind of it kind of >> brings the value of USD high. So it becomes okay these there are too many moving pieces.

[00:35:29]>> Mhm. for currency against currency.

[00:35:31]That's why I prefer commodities against currency.

[00:35:33]>> Okay. Maybe right now you have said you are working on a on a on a project that I think you are looking to launch soon.

[00:35:42]Now if people were to come to let's say when you are launching it and they start asking okay um you know >> what are the guarantees that whatever you're working on not even guarantees but rather how can we know or prior data uh and maybe uh so that we can make a decision on our own how do you address such a thing and maybe you can uh say more about it >> okay so the system I I'll speak more on the signal systems.

[00:36:12]>> Yeah.

[00:36:13]>> Uh you actually back test whichever strategy you think will work for you.

[00:36:17]>> Mhm.

[00:36:18]>> It is inbuilt into the system.

[00:36:20]>> Yeah.

[00:36:21]>> So you back test it over a period of a month, 2 months, an year.

[00:36:24]>> Yeah.

[00:36:24]>> It's inbuilt.

[00:36:26]>> Based of that you can decide. We I um maybe next time I'll I'll come with the actual system and what has been already dated.

[00:36:36]>> Yeah. You could actually see over a period of month it was just wins wins wins wins then loss a couple of losses then wins wins wins you can actually see >> this is what you call your demo >> right >> so the system has a demo for itself >> before you able you even go and take the signals and go and run them >> okay >> and that's what we believe in as a company we are trying to make it as simple for the an individual to break into the financial market.

[00:37:07]>> Okay.

[00:37:08]>> Um and we have a few links to it. So maybe maybe we when they come we can talk about >> Okay. Um for those who use FX Express, I'm I'm sure if you have a verified account, uh there is a section known as analysis and then there is the uh equity team signal center which provides signals. So they provide human based um they also provide um uh AI based and then there's a combination of human and AI and uh and obviously given that you're able to see those which go to win and and which one goes to lose what I've noticed is most of the AI based signals and are stock related right >> m >> for some reason because the data and fundamental are pretty much standard like yesterday Nvidia and then price action is pretty much or less >> easily predictable. While if it comes to effects uh you notice that maybe they tend there is a new one right now which is called um trend trending trend signal something like that where it just goes or produce a signal based on the trends.

[00:38:15]Yeah.

[00:38:16]>> And uh I mean uh some are good some are bad so it depends with if you take it or not. Yeah. Man, >> what in your in your program and as a software engineer are you are you already is taking your job because cloud is good.

[00:38:33]>> Cloud is good.

[00:38:34]>> Cloud is really good. That $20 can uh I don't know if you personally I've tried and created at least two indicators for my trading view >> and it is good and very clean. I I tried to chart GPT it just messed up my ch my chart. I tried it with Gemini. Gemini is just hallucinating.

[00:38:52]>> Yeah. So when you are creating your program are you cognizant of the fact that maybe some other AI have already created or are able to produce the same thing and what differentiates what you're doing to already what AI and if I have a subscription I might not need your service. How do you make sure that yes I producing something great but value for money basically.

[00:39:15]>> Okay that's that's a good question. So again we have two two sections to what we are building.

[00:39:22]>> Yeah.

[00:39:22]>> Um our whole our whole thing is making it quite simple for the individual especially the new individuals to break into the markets again.

[00:39:32]>> Okay.

[00:39:33]>> So for the signals bit it is rules based. You're not even like you're not telling you you click a and it automates your trades. What you're telling you is you take a couple of rules then you basically back test them.

[00:39:48]>> Okay.

[00:39:48]>> The signal tells you the over Okay. It it first shows you an analysis over what whatever period you chose for it to run.

[00:39:57]>> Ah okay.

[00:39:58]>> Then you'll actually see how many wins there were, how many losses there were.

[00:40:02]Then once you aggregate >> you can decide if you're comfortable with those rules because there are a couple of rules you can actually choose from.

[00:40:08]>> Okay. Wait. Uhhuh.

[00:40:10]>> Okay. Then so it is then it based off that you can decide whether to again decide whether to take the trade or not.

[00:40:18]>> Okay.

[00:40:18]>> The BS bit right um and here's the thing with AI AI is very good that we we that we cannot dispute.

[00:40:29]>> Yeah.

[00:40:29]>> But just like with for us as software engineers just as we've learned with um Cordex just as we've learned with Claude >> Yeah. It's more on the context than it is on the prompt.

[00:40:44]And that's what we are begging on.

[00:40:46]>> Okay.

[00:40:47]>> Um because we don't understand what needs to go into this AI >> for it to give the desired output.

[00:40:54]>> Okay.

[00:40:55]>> So it's not simply just analyze the market, give me a signal.

[00:41:00]>> Exactly.

[00:41:00]>> Okay.

[00:41:01]>> So it is more this is what happened.

[00:41:03]This is what happened. Um before you do make a decision, check this place out.

[00:41:09]So the a bit goes into actually prompting.

[00:41:12]>> Okay.

[00:41:13]>> Um so that's what you're pegging on.

[00:41:16]>> Ah okay. Now as we sort of come to an end, what are some of the books that you have read so far that you feel has influenced either how you coordinate between your software engineering to how you contribute to the financial markets?

[00:41:31]>> Oh books books are books are strong word.

[00:41:34]Okay.

[00:41:36]Other podcast besides Bullish B and and Bloomberg.

[00:41:41]>> Okay.

[00:41:41]>> Coincidentally, all of them have BB. So, >> oh >> So, I genuinely I have been I basically been purely on on Bloomberg for a long time.

[00:41:53]>> Okay.

[00:41:54]>> So, I I am pro Bloomberg a lot. I haven't >> I haven't actually gone and >> looked for books on financial markets.

[00:42:03]Yeah. Okay.

[00:42:04]>> But simply YouTube is a great resource.

[00:42:07]>> Okay.

[00:42:08]>> YouTube is a great resource on just learning how basically like how how options contracts on oils work.

[00:42:16]>> Okay.

[00:42:17]>> How futures contracts on on on oil work, right? Um how do they how do they peg the value of JPY to USD?

[00:42:28]So YouTube is a great resource. I think that's where I have learned most of what I know.

[00:42:33]>> Okay. Um, finally, where can people, you know, find you and perhaps if somebody is a because I think most like yourself, you are in compass, you're doing software engineering or you're doing something within the financial market space and you'd like to contribute some insight. How can people join your team in a way that they can contribute in something that can work for traders or themselves or learn how they can use their knowledge to grow uh something within the industry? Because I think right now we are seeing a lot of not really seeing a lot but there's a lot of interest let me put it like that >> in automating trading.

[00:43:10]>> So how can people find you be it on social media or website and then >> ah yeah for sure um >> or even what is it uh GitHub >> with my small computer knowledge. Oh wow.

[00:43:23]Who's giving out our secrets b um so on Instagram uh at alvin.carumba_k.

[00:43:32]That's where you'll mostly find me. But on our actual platforms which is um I am actually the co-founder and CTO at a company called the ventures >> where what we basically do is we are approaching the markets from a different perspective.

[00:43:50]perspective that enables anyone to actually be involved in the financial markets in a fair manner.

[00:43:56]>> Okay. Um so what we are doing right now is in addition to the to the system we actually creating on trading we are creating a system for anytime I'm talking about this I I always reference quit you know you know quu >> so we are is a financial vehicle that allows investors to invest into their portfolios properties >> and that's basically what you're doing >> okay >> um but for quite as less quite less than it is to to enter most other rates.

[00:44:28]They're called rates, real estate investment trusts.

[00:44:30]>> Yeah.

[00:44:31]>> So quite quite on a on a lower um threshold >> and for a better return on investment.

[00:44:39]So the cryb.entures you you'll find us there. Uh >> that's our website or uh or our socials.

[00:44:45]>> Oh, the crib ventures on all our socials. The crib ventures.com on our website.

[00:44:50]>> Okay.

[00:44:51]>> Do join our community. Check us out.

[00:44:53]>> Okay.

[00:44:54]>> We are doing great things. come come let's build something great together.

[00:44:57]>> Ah very nice I think that's has been an interesting conversation. I think this year we have had at least three different perspective of traders. One who is within the blockchain now we have gotten one who is into the automation and uh B space and coding space. Um hopefully by the end of the year we should be able to ask you all back and see what are the results of the projects you have created. Hopefully it can scale up to you know successful things. Of course, if you don't have an account with FX PESA, who are our sponsors, there's a link below. You can get yourself one. Maybe get to practice on the demo. Uh if you join his community or you come from his community to FXA and back test your or test your boat on the demo account. Uh when you create the account, you still qualify for the 100% deposit bonus. And uh do not forget to put in your questions on all our bullish banter uh socials, specifically on Telegram. But of course, you're still welcome to DM us on Instagram. Uh ask us questions on Twitter and on the comment section. Until next time, uh see you on the next episode of Bullish Banter. I've been your host, Jessim. Adios.