Why I’m Buying Commodities While Markets Hit New Highs

Added: 2026-06-01

[00:00:00]What I was describing was the validity in my opinion of the shorts from last week on the NAS 100 off of this structure here, the head and shoulders.

[00:00:10]Um, and we can see that the price bounced off of the neckline at 28800 and has has continued this rise into the Asian session.

[00:00:19]That's really what I was describing here. We're nearing 30,000 uh in the price, which is going to be a very powerful psychological level. Um but my shorts are justified by the overextension on the NAS 100 particularly on the weekly time frame here for example.

[00:00:38]And then I spoke about the precious metals uh and I asked if anyone in the community took any of these positions. I put into the telegram into the discord uh explicitly just talking about precious metal longs. Paul said silver closed at 78 So, was that a predetermined TP then? A successful trade? I guess that's what you're saying.

[00:01:06]The push from 75 up to 78. Yeah.

[00:01:14]Nice. Well, that sounds like a a good way to start the week then. So, you executed Thursday or Friday and then closed already.

[00:01:24]It's a nice way to begin.

[00:01:27]Are there any other people in precious metal longs?

[00:01:34]Perhaps, perhaps not. I thought the, you know, I thought the case for it was pretty strong uh toward the end of last week. That's why I I put I'm bullish on commodities. I'm buying gold, buying silver. There's a YouTube video that I posted on the channel where the thumbnail is buying gold.

[00:01:54]So these things uh these things were spoken about and discussed.

[00:02:03]Also Euro USD is anybody in this trade?

[00:02:07]We went long from the triple bottom here and have also experienced a significant gap up.

[00:02:16]Set TP because I knew I'd be away from the chart so I couldn't monitor it. That sounds perfectly sensible. great trading uh hygiene if you will or yeah operation.

[00:02:33]Okay. So no nobody in Euro USD nobody else other than Paul in gold or silver.

[00:02:44]Interesting. Are you taking any oil longs? Yes, AB. That is uh one of the So you remember we spoke about it last week that the uh repositioning into the precious metal markets would take place last week and then the repositioning into the oil markets would take place this week. That was the that was the conclusion that we had arrived at uh last week and I think that that has turned out or at least at the moment that has turned out to be the sensible sensible approach uh because there wasn't really a good a good entry opportunity for oil um at these highs around 110 115. Uh we've been waiting for a pullback and now I'm looking at the monthly chart. Okay, applying the fib basically to the start of the structure before the war broke out to the top here. We can see where $92 is going to be a important support level.

[00:03:49]So AB to answer your question, $92 is going to be at least where I execute the uh first position. Now something to keep in mind is that uh supposedly they are moving towards a deal in the Middle East and uh they've spoken about the straight of four moons reopening completely. I mean again this has been kind of uh a recurring theme throughout this conflict but Saudis Aramco uh which is arguably like the most uh influential oil exporter um they have said that the normalization will now run into 2027 confirmed meaning that even if some kind of deal is reached some kind of memorandum of understanding which they've been discussing uh you know these oil prices are not going to stabilize until next year uh the global economy etc etc and that's all if it ends today again so we've been constantly presenting this argument that uh you can't just focus on the headlines and the narratives saying okay it's going to open everything's going to be back to normal because there are structural changes that have been fundamentally made infrastructure destroyed um the just a simple backlog of ships that have been uh accumulating in the Gulf here.

[00:05:17]I can show you on monitor the situation if I can remember how to turn on the uh shipping live aircraft positions. No, I don't need that.

[00:05:37]Okay, it doesn't want to give me the the um option to turn on the tanker filters. I forget exactly where that is.

[00:05:48]Map options. Oh, here we go.

[00:05:54]No, never mind. It's not there either.

[00:05:56]Um I think I want to be looking on traffic.

[00:06:10]Anyway, the point that I'm trying to make is that uh I do believe that oil will be presenting re-entry opportunities both across West Texas oil and Brent. Uh West Texas just by applying a fib here looks as if $85 will be a better entry. So on Brent it's around 92. on WTI it's around 85. This is just from from some higher time frame retracement levels. Uh you can see the weekly coming in there. The blue average line that will act as a support or at least a possible support. Uh and that coincides with this high confluence area of the 0.5 on the fib.

[00:06:55]Okay. Okay. So, I'll be looking for the price to maintain this support floor of $85 as it has done multiple times in the past uh and use this for a reentry opportunity.

[00:07:07]So, WTI is $85. Brent will be $92.

[00:07:13]Again, we see a similar kind of setup happening here. Um, and I am basing this off of the structural uh thesis in that ignoring the narratives and the headlines and focusing on the fact that oil infrastructure has been taken offline. This is what I wanted to show you. Uh you can just see the absolute vast number of tankers that are either stuck um within the well just yeah in the in the Persian Gulf but on the other end of the straight and form. So these guys have all been stuck here um a lot of them have been stuck here through the entire duration of the war and not to mention the huge accumulation on the outside of it as well. there is some traffic flowing. We can see the Iranians uh their authority framework is implementing the toll booth between Keshim Island and Larak Island. So nations that are friendly with Iran uh are transiting through this corridor here and then countries that are adversarial to Iran are instead trying to hug the coast of Oman and go around this way.

[00:08:35]Um, so you're seeing you're seeing that happen there. Uh, but yeah, you can just tell the huge uh buildup of traffic and our economy was operating uh from the perspective of just in time logistics.

[00:08:56]Right? This is how our world was working up until uh this has been this conflict has started a supply and chain strategy where materials and products arrive exactly when they are needed. So with our globalization that uh we've experienced this logistics mechanism has become possible where everything is you know turning up taking on the cargo and immediately uh immediately leaving or new orders are being placed. It's all like timetabled and scheduled years in advance or at least months in advance.

[00:09:33]The insurance has to be uh like it has to be found. the entire route has to be approved etc etc. So our world in the globalization stage when we were experiencing free trade and and open um open navigation of international waters this was possible uh and it's basically the most efficient uh logistic setup for a globalized world and a world participating in capitalism.

[00:10:04]It reduces overhead as it as it removes the need to pay for extensive long-term warehousing space. Improved cash flow as the capital isn't trapped in unsold or unused inventory. This is a key this is a key one because you can now see that uh the a lot of the oil and the other exports from the Gulf States and the Arab world or the Middle Eastern world uh is now unsold or unused. They're having to stockpile it and eventually they won't be able to store anymore. And then they will have to stop the oil production in the oil fields. Uh which I believe if you if you turn those things off, if you stop them, they can uh it it it can actually it can actually damage the oil well itself and the mechanism that's used to extract the oil. I guess the idea is that you need to keep them constantly running. Um if the oil is deep underground, you need to inject like gas to bring it to the surface or some other mechanisms. Um, and I guess if you turn that off, that that not only stops the process, but actually starts to damage it as well. While highly efficient, just in time logistics leaves little room for error. Supply chain disruptions such as severe weather, port delays, or transport bottlenecks, keyword, transport bottlenecks, can immediately halt production lines or leave shelves empty immediately.

[00:11:29]So, this is the way that the world was running.

[00:11:31]uh and now we have the largest uh transport bottleneck if you will that we've ever experienced.

[00:11:41]So we've we had the worst possible supply chain system for the current events which I think in my opinion spells further catastrophe.

[00:11:55]Um, we haven't quite seen it just yet, but as we move into the summer and particularly into the winter, this will start to be felt more and more.

[00:12:07]Paul is in EU. Very nice. And UC longs.

[00:12:12]Everyone else is Everyone else is quiet here. You guys not in any other trades.

[00:12:18]Paul, that EU trade was a nice move so far. uh reacted off the triple bottom there.

[00:12:26]Seeing seeing some strength come in so far. A triple bottom is quite a rare pattern actually to see this form and to execute on it and for it to work out all at the same all at the same time is a good thing to see.

[00:12:44]USD JPY still in its consolidation phase. I wouldn't go anywhere near this right now.

[00:12:53]GJ has continued bullish from last week.

[00:12:56]We clearly mapped out the inverse head and shoulders here and that has continued.

[00:13:03]AUDUSD opened with a gap upwards. So, we've seen the we've seen the dollar take a hit um as a result of this deal.

[00:13:12]And this was marked out actually on the dollar index. So if you aren't looking at the DXY and you trade the US dollar, uh I would recommend starting to check it out because it's a index for the strength of the US dollar and just performing some technical analysis, you can often get insights into what the dollar is like more likely to do ahead of time. So we can see this head and shoulders here, triple tops. I applied a fib and uh the dollar reacted negatively to that and has actually fallen in value. Hence the gaps up in uh trades like euro USD, gold, silver. So this is all coming this is all uh coming as a result of the weakening of the US dollar and in my opinion as time goes on the dollar will only become more and more weak. Which again is why I keep stressing the idea of diversification, hedging uh you know accumulating different assets uh not focusing on our fiat currencies because what can be said with the dollar can also be extrapolated across into the pound probably into the euro as well even though I mean they are spending a lot of money and there's a lot of investment going into their uh defense industries but I think these fiat currencies will only continue to lose value over time. So the idea is how do we hedge against that and uh this like pivot into commodities is one of those one of those moves. So hedging the reduction in the value of our fiat currencies by going long on gold and silver also oil for that matter uh crypto right so like digital assets as well we keep talking about bitcoin uh we made the initial buys at 65k and it's now rising a little bit towards uh well it hit 80k and there's now a possible inbust head and shoulders here at 77 seven, but this is like a structural long. I'm not I'm not interested in closing anytime soon.

[00:15:23]Sorry, that was a bit rough. But, uh, inverse head and shoulders there for anyone who's interested in the in the digital asset side of things and Algo, of course, is our our altcoin play for this season.

[00:15:39]Seeing some strength as it's breaking out here.

[00:15:46]Are there any Forex pairs that you would like me to specifically look at? That's why I ask if you're in any trades so then if there's something uh I can help with by looking at. That's the point.

[00:16:00]Last week we looked at longs on the pound essentially across the board. GBP CAD has just continued on its strength.

[00:16:07]That entry was perfect in hindsight. Uh it was a 12-hour confirmation and it's it's kind of funny because we were expecting even just to you know the buys up to the fib here and then up to a lower high and then sell but the price has just smashed straight through that GBP AUD consolidating at this right shoulder.

[00:16:42]And you mentioned UC long as well, Paul, right?

[00:16:46]That that that looks like it's moving.

[00:16:48]Well, was that just a continuation from last week as uh as well? You're just holding that because with UC what we were theorizing last week um was well avoid trading it in this consolidation phase. wait for a breakout in either direction and it happened to the upside break retest and that was that was the key entry there. So I think that's the one that Paul took which is a very very nice move.

[00:17:16]Yes, from last week. Nice. Fay says GBP AUD. I'll check that out. Paul says a lot of pumps lubricated by the oil they are pumping. So if they are not in use they can basically seize with sticky residue and have to be cleaned out before they can run properly again. a bit of a pain especially if they are in remote desert locations. Thank you for that explanation, Paul. That is uh what I was trying to explain not as articulately, but yeah, I think it's it's one of those things that once you turn it on, the incentive is to keep it running as opposed to off and on and off and on and off and on. Um yeah, Fay says GBP AUD. We will most definitely check that out. It is uh consolidating here. FA at the moment, but I will perform a monthly multi-time frame analysis from top to bottom and then we can get a clearer picture on it.

[00:18:13]So, starting with the monthly time frame, as always, we mark out the monthly low and high as designated by the wicks on the monthly time frame.

[00:18:26]And I'm always making sure to assign my support and resistance levels to the corresponding psychological price levels.

[00:18:35]Basically meaning uh whole numbers in the price increments of 50 if you will. So 1.86850 1.86900 1.86950 1.87 like those would be the those would be the increments there. So once I've uh established my I could be very thorough here monthly high monthly low and then from there we work within the trading range that has been uh defined by the high and low. So you can see I took this wick here which also corresponds to this support level. I can take previous monthly low 1.87 950.

[00:19:31]I can label this.

[00:19:37]Just make it a bit smaller. Previous monthly low. The previous monthly high isn't particularly relevant because the price is over here. So, don't really need to mark that out. Uh there is another wick here. 1.88700.

[00:19:52]And these these monthly lows and highs can be very powerful levels to reference uh for for support or resistance levels.

[00:20:02]And just to make that case even more um obvious right now once we mark the support and resistance we then look at the general trend structure. And from what it appears on GBP AUD there is a left shoulder here a head over there.

[00:20:19]This is the neckline. We're coming into the neckline again. So the possible uh idea at this stage would be now to watch for a retracement to the right shoulder.

[00:20:31]We can see that the current monthly candle is demonstrating some uh some like buying interest with the large wicks that have been left to the downside and the small candle bodies that are coming back above here. So there is some indication that the buying pressure is coming in here to push it to the right shoulder.

[00:20:52]But this is just the monthly time frame.

[00:20:53]So now let's go down to the weekly.

[00:20:58]Okay, the weekly paints a slightly different story because we still have to focus on the fact that a lower low, lower high, lower low. So the so the logical uh explanation or sorry the next steps here would be to anticipate a retracement now back to the lower high interact with the previous low as resistance and then continue.

[00:21:31]That's just like generally speaking how you'd expect this uh you know this downwards trend to continue.

[00:21:40]So what I need to keep in mind is that even though the price even though the price looks uh somewhat bullish here on the monthly, I can't ignore the weekly trend. We'll then drop to the daily.

[00:21:58]Okay. Okay, so this is presenting now the uh like somewhat of the opposite left shoulder, neckline, head, neckline, right shoulder.

[00:22:11]And that's really what we're looking for here is if this support level holds at the previous monthly low and see how we now have that further clarification that this is in indeed an important level.

[00:22:24]Um, so it's very much now if GBP AUD is going to hold this, if it's going to respect the previous monthly low, um, and move higher up into this retracement level on the weekly time frame, which just judging off of what I've seen so far, I would, uh, lean more towards.

[00:22:48]And then we have the 12hour time frame.

[00:22:52]So this is more of a 382 retracement which we typically don't employ. Um but if it is being corroborated by an important support resistance level like in this case previous monthly low then it you know it well you can't ignore it anyway. Um we do prefer to take 0.5 and 0.618 retracements and that could still happen.

[00:23:18]Yeah the price is very flat right now.

[00:23:21]Uh let's see if there's any catalysts for today.

[00:23:33]What's the 25th?

[00:23:41]Okay. So major bank holidays, it's possible that GA is going to be flat now until even Wednesday. You got you have a plethora of Australian dollar news coming in. CPI is always a big one.

[00:23:57]It's at 3:30 a.m. Wednesday. Um so I guess one way of looking at this is just to simply position yourself now whilst the liquidity is thin uh in anticipation for the high impact catalyst that will come on Wednesday.

[00:24:17]Uh the idea here now would be to try and determine what the likely outcome of the CPI will be. It's forecasted to have dropped from the previous one which is generally a good thing if inflation is falling.

[00:24:32]Uh so that could see the strength return.

[00:24:39]Yeah, inflation is always is is is always a big one but the forecast versus what can actually come in that's also very different. I mean, we saw last week um there were some huge misses on some of this USD news.

[00:25:02]I forget this flash manufacturing uh the Philly. Yeah. So, the Philly Fed manufacturing index for example, the previous was 26.7.

[00:25:11]The forecast was 17.6 six and it came in at negative0.4.

[00:25:17]So that's an enormous miss. You can see uh the difference between previous forecasted and actual. Uh and this this is a leading indicator of economic health. Uh it's showing that that the businesses in the US are stockpiling provisions. So they're buying, you know, um they are buying based off of anticipation of supply chain disruptions rather than an increase in retail demand or commercial demand. Um so that's a great example of a data point that was massively missed last week.

[00:25:53]And just to just to introduce this idea that it could happen again uh as the numbers start to reflect the global crisis that we're in.

[00:26:06]It looks good for an entry now. Again, more so just to position yourself with the expectation of the catalyst arriving on on Wednesday.

[00:26:15]Um but as of right now, that's all I can really say on it. It's pretty flat. we have bank holidays across the board that the overall liquidity is likely to be much thinner.

[00:26:26]So I can't say that we will see any meaningful moves until Wednesday. But just structurally uh it does it does it does position itself nicely for a long hit. Is that what you were thinking FA?

[00:26:44]How does that compare to Okay. in for a long. Yeah, I mean that does also carry on the bullish momentum we're seeing with the pound from last week and still bleeding in into this week.

[00:27:01]So from what I can see that makes sense at the moment.

[00:27:07]Uh Euro USD moving well. Okay, so just to like recap on our active positions, Euro USD is moving well. That's gapped up overnight. Gold and silver moving extremely well. I'm very glad that I went long last week. It seems like I had the right idea. And I'm also very glad that I didn't go long on oil just yet.

[00:27:29]Okay. I explicitly mentioned that I think last week was the time for precious metal entries because they had come down so much. Uh and this week would be the opportunity for oil entries if they were to come down, which they have.

[00:27:43]To reiterate, Brent, I'm looking for entries around $92. That will be the next most critical support floor. West Texas, I'll be looking at $85. In my opinion, that would be the most critical support floor.

[00:27:57]Um, yeah. Are there any other Forex markets you'd like me to look at? I have to say my um focus on this week is going to be precious metals and commodities. It does seem. Would you suggest avoiding any long-term longs on gold until prices filled below the gap? It's a good question. Mark brought that up earlier in the VIP chat as well. This idea that uh the gold market could come in and fill that gap.

[00:28:28]In my opinion, um the the the events have been set in such a way that I would be pretty surprised if gold continues to fall. Um, I mean there is a chance that the gap is filled. I'm not discounting that. But that doesn't really change my overall idea here. I mean, even if the gap is filled, uh, I don't see I don't see the commodities dropping any more meaningfully than this.

[00:29:01]How do I justify this? How do I rationalize this? Well, I've been aiming to present uh many different geopolitical elements that I think will lead to gold reclaiming its position as a hedge against risk and inflation. Uh yeah, well risk primarily um and inflation of course, but uh because we've seen a detachment from gold as a risk hedge over over this conflict, right? So rather than gold rising, we've seen it fall, which is essentially the inverse of what it's done historically.

[00:29:36]But I do think that that will like eventually catch up over time. Um, and structurally I'm remaining bullish on the commodities. So uh, it doesn't really change much if the gap is filled. I guess you know the the argument that I have to be prepared for is if it does just keep dropping what happens uh what happens there. We'll have to approach that when we come to it of course. Uh but I am I am as confident as I can be personally that this is the right place to be positioned whether you know it's going to immediately result in significant profits which in theory already has um but as far as market positioning is going I don't see the rationale about being long anything other than the commodities because I think that it's very clear how important they are, how important they're going to become. Uh, and the world is abandoning the rules-based order and international law. And we're moving back towards this idea of the rule of the jungle, might is right, survival of the fittest, etc., etc., where, you know, nations are now going to just take what they want rather than trying to have any kind of diplomacy.

[00:31:05]The US Marines are being uh trained and exclusively used to like board ships. It's essentially piracy. The Americans are committing a lot of piracy at the moment. And the US Marines are basically used as an extension of that. It's like the enforcement mechanism. Um so we are seeing a breakdown in global trade, supply chains. this idea of freedom of navigation, international law has been completely disregarded, diplomacy has been completely disregarded. Um, our European leaders have absolutely no interest in talking to the Russians. Uh, some I think Angela Merkel has recently mentioned that we need to establish the dialogue with the Russians. This is four years into the war with hundreds of thousands of deaths and untold economic damage. Um, now they're saying some some of them are saying uh that we need to speak to the Russians. And keep in mind, right, if you said that, if you said that yesterday, you would be called a a criminal agent spouting pro-Russian propaganda. How how dare you suggest that we even talk to the evil evil Russians and, you know, Putin is the next Hitler? How how can we even talk with people like that? But I can almost guarantee you that over the next few months the uh it you know they will have no choice but to establish the dialogue and then it will become oh well you know we should have we should have been doing this earlier and uh anyone who disagreed with that was labeled a traitor essentially um in in Europe you can't have an opposing view that's not like pro- NATO otherwise you are a traitor.

[00:32:54]You have to agree with what Ursula Vanderelion and Ka Kalis are saying.

[00:33:00]Um otherwise you are an agent of the Kremlin.

[00:33:06]This is who we need to listen to everyone.

[00:33:09]Ursula Vanderelion Ka Kalas they uh they are the ones saying that we need to go to war.

[00:33:20]You know, it's interesting. Like, no offense to any women, but it seems like the women in power are much more uh interested in war.

[00:33:34]Yeah. Look, you can see Russia, it carries out terrorist acts through targeted strikes on Ukrainian cities, but they don't mention that Ukrainians bombed the uh let's see if there's any starisk college.

[00:33:57]Russia blames Ukraine. Val's retaliation is 16 killed in strike on student dormatory. So let's let's ask ourselves, the Ukrainians are acting with full NATO support, US support. Uh the US military are basically running the war from their base in Rammstein, Germany. So how does a how do I think it was three strikes or four strikes accidentally so-called hit a college uh with children in it? Most of the victims young women.

[00:34:32]Uh so this is why the retaliatory strikes have come in. Ukraine's military has denied responsibility for the attack saying it had struck an elite drone command unit in the area and that its forces complied with international humanitarian law. Does this look like complying with international humanitarian law to you?

[00:34:53]But then, right, so regardless of this, these EU people are using it as yeah, they condemn Russian attacks and Russians are terrorists and and all this stuff, but it's it's the women that are really um really uh anti-Russian and pro pro-war basically. And it's interesting if you look into who Kaakalis is and her lineage and her heritage uh you would you would uh find some very interesting things about her family history and possibly why they want to fight Russia so much. These are the evil people everyone.

[00:35:41]Um, and we never really hear much like you can't really uh you know who even put Ursula Vandereline in just these people are just kind of it's really just appointed or um yeah so anyway I don't you know I don't want to go into these so-called conspiratorial topics But I think it's uh important that that I try my best to destroy narratives. Um because look, my interest is objective analysis. I don't care. I'm not pro-Russian. I'm not pro I'm not even pro-UK or like I was born in in the UK.

[00:36:30]I'm not pro anything. I don't like frankly I find it it's like theater. But um what I'm interested in is the truth, objective truth, whether it's a painful truth, whether it's a uh a truth that I don't want to come to terms with it. I don't care. Uh I'm I am focused on on objective analysis because that's what uh I think helps us here in terms of our positioning.

[00:36:59]Um, so when I see these things, it it I struggle to uh just adopt this pro- western, pro- NATO all like alliance when I can clearly see that it's the Europeans that want war. I can clearly it's the Europeans that want war. There is no question of that. Um, there is no attempt at at any diplomacy. there is no recognizing Russian security interests.

[00:37:30]Uh it's we need to go to war with them no matter what. And if you want my opinion uh us in Europe, we should take a look around and ask ourselves who orchestrates these conflicts between us.

[00:37:44]Why is it that Europe is always fighting one another? Um and you can point your finger at the Americans and the Israelis really. They are, you know, it's like divide and conquer. Uh they are setting up different ethnicities and nationalities against one another, funding different political parties, NOS's, influencing elections, you name it. Um that's really, I think, our adversary. And then, you know, you could you could you could make the argument that Europe should ally with Russia.

[00:38:16]Actually, they have natural resources.

[00:38:18]Europe needs that. Okay? because Europe only really has or had access to natural resources through their colonies. So if you are anti-colonial, anti-imperial, anti-mpire, etc., etc., then you should realize that the only way to continue growing is through trade. Okay? So not conquest, not not not colonies, not not not extracting all the wealth from the global south and impoverishing the people there and and you name it, whatever other you know colonial atrocity you can think of. So if you don't want that, which I think we can all agree uh is not is not a good thing for the general world, then the only alternative is to trade.

[00:39:08]Okay. If if it's not conquest, then it's trade. And there there, you know, there has to come a point where it's like, no matter how much you hate a group of people, and you have to ask yourself, why do you hate those group of people?

[00:39:21]And, you know, perhaps some people have a uh legitimate reason, but I'd imagine most people in the West don't have a legitimate reason to irrationally hate Russians.

[00:39:32]Then you need to ask yourself, okay, so, okay, we hate these people. you know, this guy is the next Hitler. Okay. Okay.

[00:39:38]Okay. But, uh, maybe there's some kind of trade that we can participate in to avoid extracting resources from less fortunate countries that have no ability to protect themselves against the West.

[00:39:56]Does that make sense? Am I am I making sense there? Like you can either Europe can either have its resources from colonies or from trade.

[00:40:08]Does that make sense? That you know like Europe's prosperity and all these amazing things that we have you know a lot of it has has come from extracting resources from other parts of the world against their will really. Um, so I don't see how that is like better than trading with the Russians.

[00:40:34]Do you want to oppress people in Africa and India and Asia just just to spite the Russia? Like just, you know, just because the Russians are simply too evil to trade with or something. But keep in mind, up until a few years ago, there was plenty of Russian resources coming into Germany. That's what allowed Germany to be uh a manufacturing powerhouse like it was. The Americans then destroyed or a pro- Ukrainian American, you know, cut out, destroyed the Nordstream pipeline and now Europe is being plunged into de-industrialization and lack of resources and they're having to buy more expensive energy from the Americans. So, this is just benefiting the Americans. I don't see how I don't understand how this is not obvious.

[00:41:21]And you know, like us in Europe, we should really uh recalculate who who's acting uh in our best interests or not. I I just don't think it's the I don't think you can say it's the Americans. Uh they want to keep us fighting one another.

[00:41:42]You can I mean there are countless military doctrines written about this.

[00:41:48]That's like how you know World War II was structured to keep the continental powers fighting.

[00:41:54]The Americans always come in late to the wars and then clean up and establish themselves as the dominant ones after the European powers have spent their blood and treasure fighting fighting one another. The Americans come in and set the set the precedent for everyone.

[00:42:11]Um but yeah, the Elisium daily brief aspect of the stream this morning.

[00:42:23]Saturday, the New York Times had the framework first. Iran agreed in general terms to a 60-day ceasefire, the Straight of Hormuz reopening and Hezbollah ceasefire inclusion. This is an interesting aspect. So in the deal, they've said that the war in southern Lebanon is going to stop as well.

[00:42:40]Now, this is all hinging on the uh cooperation of the Israelis not to continue expanding into southern Lebanon. And if the Israelis have been any indication uh so far, they will completely ignore this and the framework will break apart again because every time this has happened in the past, the Israelis uh almost within hours go and strike something that will then render the agreement useless. they uh seem to like doing that. Two things are happening at once, but only one of them is the deal.

[00:43:14]The first is what Asia traded. So, this is what we've been discussing in the markets thus far. The war premium unwinding on a credible diplomatic frame. So, that's the drop in oil, the rise in the NAS, the rise in gold, the drop in the dollar. That's this war premium unwinding.

[00:43:32]The second is what bonds will trade on Tuesday's reopen. So the American markets are closed today and it's the bonds will reopen tomorrow. The new Fed chair Walsh has his first FOMC the 16th and 17th of June and he inherits a 30-year Treasury bond at 5.2% and the April minutes will now have to discuss possibilities of hiking interest rates whereas uh from what I understand at the beginning of the year the market was anticipating three uh three rate cuts as opposed to rate hikes. So, we're seeing a um a real development happen there.

[00:44:21]Asia traded the deal as if it was signed. Brent broke back underneath $100, but the US cash and bonds are closed for Memorial Days. Europe inherits the gap with no deeper liquidity behind it. the thin liquidity day is is itself the risk. Tuesday is when the bonds rejoin.

[00:44:42]So I'm not looking to add any positions here due to this thin liquidity. Uh it's more about continuing the existing positions.

[00:44:52]Um and then something else I wanted to discuss uh a bit more of an expansion on what I've been talking about today. This European theater is expanding.

[00:45:07]Why is it expanding? The Ukraine war is no longer geographically contained to Ukraine. Over the past 3 weeks, the uh kinetic envelope has visibly widened into NATO territory and NATO waters.

[00:45:23]Drones now routinely strike NATO soil.

[00:45:26]Just for some clarification, this is the Ukrainian drones that are either supposedly jammed and redirected by the Russians or just accidentally hitting colleges full of children. So when they say drones now routinely strike NATO soil, this is Ukrainian drones, by the way. Um, a NATO fighter. This was over Estonia, I believe.

[00:45:51]So there was a Ukrainian d Ukrainian drone over Estonia that NATO scrambled a jet to shoot down. So NATO shot down its own drone over its own ally.

[00:46:07]Okay, think about that.

[00:46:10]A NATO government has fallen. This was Latvia. I spoke about this a few days ago. and a Ukrainian naval drone with hundreds of kilograms of explosives has surfaced in a Greek tourist cave.

[00:46:27]I feel like I need to I need to just say all of that again. So, drones now routinely strike NATO soil. These are primarily Ukrainian drones. A NATO fighter has fired over a member state.

[00:46:42]So this was a NATO jet shooting down a NATO drone over a NATO member state. Uh a NATO government has fallen. This is Latvia as they supposedly failed to protect, you know, Latvia as a Ukrainian drone came down in Latvia and then they've, you know, resigned because they were unable to protect Latvian airspace. But then they've said that these Ukrainian drones wouldn't be flying over our airspaces if it wasn't for the Russian invasion.

[00:47:14]Um, that's their that's their justification.

[00:47:18]Uh, and this as well Ukrainian naval drone with hundreds of kilograms of explosives has surfaced in a Greek tourist cave. I mean, guys, does that sound like a, you know, is that is that the Russians also jamming a naval drone and sending it to turn up in Greece?

[00:47:38]But if you read about what's happening in Greece with the Israelis, you might uh change your mind there.

[00:47:46]Russia has used its strategic tier Aishnik missile for only the third time in the war. and the United States, the only mediator both sides will speak to has publicly stepped back from the negotiations.

[00:47:59]We assess the probability of the war crossing decisively into European NATO territory by accident, by design, or both has materially increased.

[00:48:11]There were 21 dead in this Star Oisk dormator uh sorry dormatory attack. The retaliation package was then 690 weapons. I think I said 650 earlier.

[00:48:25]Um, and yeah, like a timeline here. You can see the uh escalations.

[00:48:33]So we have on the 7th of May, Ukrainian drones strike fuel depot in Latvia. Latvian air defense has been publicly exposed. So again, Ukrainian drones strike.

[00:48:51]I I don't know if I'm making this clear enough. So a NATO ally, a NATO member state was struck by the supposed allies and then their government collapsed.

[00:49:05]Okay. Um the Ukrainian naval drone was found in a coastal cave in Greece the next day.

[00:49:15]Then the Latvian government collapses as the uh defense minister resigns and the PM the prime minister resigns.

[00:49:24]Romanian F-16 shoots down Ukrainian drone in Estonia. Again, another NATO ally.

[00:49:31]The Greek uh the Greeks will demand an apology from Ukraine. I don't think that's really meaningful. Again, if a Russian drone had surfaced in Greece with hundreds of kilos of explosives on it, uh that would probably invoke article 5 or or you know, something like that.

[00:49:49]Anyway, um then the following day, 22nd of May, Ukrainian drone strike on vocational school dorm. 21 dead, 42 wounded.

[00:49:59]And then the day after, the Czech president says that NATO must show its teeth. So, you know, so think about that. So Ukrainian drone strikes civilians and then the Czech president said the following day that NATO must show its teeth and now we've had the Russian retaliation that's being framed as a terrorist attack when I mean I don't know guys maybe what what are your have you got some thoughts on any of this? Am I making sense? Am I am I presenting my argument in the way that I think I am in that uh well Ukraine is not this like angel that um is fighting against Satan basically. I don't know why now three structural forces are now compressing toward expansion. Ukraine has every incentive to drag NATO in. The battlefield is grinding against Kev.

[00:51:02]Western aid has slowed. American mediator has stepped back. So, the only path to a more favorable outcome runs through a wider war that pulls NATO directly into the fight. Every NATO airspace incursion not shot down at source teaches the Ukrainian command that the cost of a accidental overflight is zero.

[00:51:22]And the uh political dividend humiliating an article 5 government and generating Russian aggression headlines is positive.

[00:51:31]So you can see the incentive structure is here for Ukraine to drag NATO in.

[00:51:37]Europe is locking in confrontation while the US is unlocking it. So we had the Czech uh the Czech prime minister his intervention is not an outlier. He's saying that NATO needs to show its teeth. Black Rockck Mertz Chancellor Mertz in Germany is openly re remilitarizing the Baltic states are running four to 5% of GDP on defense.

[00:51:59]The Czech president is proposing kinetic responses on the record. Brussels is searching for an envoy to quote to negotiate while every senior European voice assists insists the block must not negotiate. So again, there's no diplomacy, there's no attempt at at any kind of walking back. Uh the only path here is kinetic escalation.

[00:52:22]Unfortunately, uh we've also seen that the Marco Rubio in the US has said uh well that they are talking about withdrawing. Europe and Washington are diverging in real time.

[00:52:37]So basically the Americans are handing over the responsibility of the conflict to the Europeans. They want the Europeans to fight and die against the Russians instead or even more so now. Ukraine is experiencing a manpower problem and they will then need to drag in the Baltic states as well to fill uh to fill that gap. And then one of the most uh concerning elements of this that that I've been like following is the discussions inside of Russia where they are saying that actually Putin is a um well some of the of the more extreme like voices are saying that he's a traitor for for allowing this war to go on as long as it has. Why is Kee still standing? Why are the NATO bases still operating? Why are the drone manufacturing facilities in France, Germany, and the UK still standing when these have clearly been used to strike deep into Russian territory? So, I think the idea here is that if it was uh you know contained strictly to the Ukraine theater, it wouldn't be so bad. But you have like Britishmade missiles striking sovereign Russian territory. So, a lot of Russians are saying, why has this been allowed to go on for so long? Uh why have so many of our soldiers needed to die? They could incinerate Kev like within half an hour with the archnic missiles just like take out the command centers. Um try and you know uh a decapitation strike essentially like how we saw the Americans and the Israelis do with Iran.

[00:54:18]Um so it's it's really eye opening to see the Russian uh discussion which is that actually Putin is is holding back um and he's being criticized heavily where the more extreme elements or even just other elements in Russia are now pushing for for real uh es escalation.

[00:54:41]So, the Russian military blogger ecosystem, the closest thing the country has to a public opinion barometer on the war, has spent the last fortnight openly criticizing the Friday night, Saturday morning retaliations as inadequate.

[00:54:55]The Iran president, where a non-nuclear state with materially less in industrial depth is striking American bases across the Gulf without nuclear cover, is corrosive. Every additional western sanctions busting boarding compounds the perception that Russian red lines are in fact actually decorative.

[00:55:15]The pressure inside the system for harder retaliation is not coming from the Kremlin. It is coming up through Russian society.

[00:55:25]Uh I heard some bloggers talk about the death of the Russian liberal now where you know before there were these Russians that wanted to integrate with the EU. They liked going to America and the UK and London and stuff. Uh, you know, Russian liberals, but those people are now being radicalized as well. And when you see strikes on a college that kills children and girls, I mean, it's hard not to be radicalized. I imagine we've seen elements of this where the US bombed, doubletapped a or even triple tapped a uh girls school in Iran as well. So these western whoever is controlling these western powers seems to have an affinity for killing children.

[00:56:08]That seems to be one of the uh Modi operande if you will.

[00:56:16]Um yeah I mean there's so much that I there's so much that I want to talk about here. Um, I am really curious to hear anybody else's thoughts on any of this because it is really um it is like really important because I think the vast majority of the discussion and the attention is focused on Iran whereas this is a much bigger conflict in my opinion and it has the it has more of a possibility to spiral out of control. I mean, Russia is the world's largest nuclear superpower.

[00:56:53]So, again, even if you hated them beyond any kind of rational level, uh why would you antagonize the world's largest nuclear superpower?

[00:57:05]What what is the what is the justification for striking deep into sovereign territory of the state that has the most powerful and most nuclear weapons. So this again is NATO and the Europeans thinking that Russia is a paper tiger, that their red lines can continuously be crossed, that they're not going to do anything and it's all a bluff. Okay, so that's what the the assumption is in the West and that's why we're so happy to keep pushing for war. Like again, think about that. Why on earth would the Czech prime minister say that NATO needs to show his teeth if he was rationally thinking that the opponent has the world's most powerful and largest stockpile of nuclear weapons? Think about that. You know, that is not how you would discuss a conflict with those people. You would look for for a diplomatic offramp. At least I would if I was if if if I was involved in any of this. I would say, okay, uh let's not provoke World War III and entire nuclear fallout Armageddon with the world's largest nuclear superpower.

[00:58:24]um let's try and come to some kind of different agreement.

[00:58:29]But then you know these statements like I mentioned does this sound anything like what you would say to uh the world's largest nuclear superpower. It's all just condemning saying that it's terrorist attacks and no mention right no mention of the uh why that happened.

[00:58:50]Ka Kalis, the European's foreign policy chief, has said that Russia, due to its failure on the battlefield, is carrying out targeted attacks on Ukrainian cities in actions aimed at killing civilians.

[00:59:01]So, compare that to to what I've um what I've been saying to you.

[00:59:12]Russia, due to its failure on the battlefield, is carrying out targeted attacks on Ukrainian cities.

[00:59:18]So, what does this look like exactly?

[00:59:22]What does this look like?

[00:59:32]I mean, they don't even really say uh the So, the Ukrainians denied responsibility, saying it struck an elite drone command unit. I mean, does this sound and look like an elite drone command unit to you? 21 like children, mostly young girls dead.

[00:59:52]Three three waves of drones 10 to 15 minutes apart.

[00:59:59]Yeah. I mean, you can you can really see the difference between the narratives here. When the Russians do it, it's like terrorist attacks killing civilians. When the Ukrainians do it, they just actually deny it. And then there's no mention of it whatsoever. Um, look, it's a political intimidation tactic and dangerous nuclear escalation.

[01:00:21]So when Ukraine uh attacks Russian military airfields and their nuclear triad, their early warning systems, their radar, um here we uh strategic aviation intercontinental intercontinental ballistic missiles and nuclear submarines.

[01:00:58]So this operation spiderweb uh was used to destroy here we go uh seven heavy strategic bombers uh long range bombers and an early warning control aircraft also destroyed.

[01:01:15]So they destroyed about 20% of Russia's operationally ready long range aviation.

[01:01:21]So does that sound like uh escalation?

[01:01:25]Let's see. Uh a political intimidation tactic and a dangerous nuclear escalation or does actually destroying Russia's uh strategic nuclear forces.

[01:01:37]Does that sound like nuclear escalation?

[01:01:39]You guys you guys let me know. Uh these these people are are evil in my opinion.

[01:01:52]They are deliberately provoking a Russian military strike so they can then complain. It does seem it does seem that way. That is the um explanation behind Putin's measured response if you will or uh even patience is because he understands that uh yeah like Europe is just waiting for something like this to happen because you can see immediately the second it does happen it it will be front page newspapers um and all of the all of yeah I guess article five will be invoked all the NATO states will will have to get involved as well.

[01:02:30]It does it does seem that way, Andy.

[01:02:34]Um, and it's very concerning.

[01:02:40]But yes, that's uh pretty much everything for this morning. There's a lot to talk about and uh I hope you guys enjoyed and found that information useful. Uh again, I aim to provide you with a comprehensive look at these things. I would like to reiterate I'm not, you know, I'm not uh taking any sides in any of this. Uh frankly, I don't care much for the theater of this.

[01:03:06]I see it all very clearly as manipulation of the masses.

[01:03:12]I think that's extremely apparent and uh I thoroughly reject being manipulated. I try my best uh to avoid that. So that's why some of my some of my opinions can often come across as contrarian, I guess, or by some measures uh even um anti-western.

[01:03:33]But I would like to reiterate that that's not the case. I'm purely from my opinion analyzing this objectively and I think you guys have been able to see the progression of what we look at and you know the markets that we trade. Um it's it's well I hope that it doesn't seem like there's an agenda or a or a bias here. It's simply trying to present uh a wide array of information and to kind of explain that these things are not happening in in a vacuum. So the assumption that the UK, France, Germany can supply weapons of war to UK Ukraine to then use in Russia. And to do that from like a cost-free basis where there will never be any retaliation. There will never be any answering for that. You know, you can just supply your proxy and you know like nothing's going to happen and the Baltic states can be as aggressively rousophobic as they want and you know nothing's going to happen and they can let the Ukrainians use their airspace for for drone strikes deep into Russia and nothing's going to happen. you know, like this is the assumption that all of this is happening in in a vacuum and like nothing's going to happen as a result of it. But I'm essentially trying to warn you that when something does happen, uh don't be surprised and also try and look at it from both sides of the argument like uh well, if there are deep strikes into Russia that are taking out colleges and killing children, then you can imagine how the general population are going to become angry and radicalized. Uh it I mean it just makes sense from their perspective. And it's this it's this lack of um being able to take into consideration other people's perspectives I think is really the biggest problem here. You know the I think that well I can show you look let me show you something.

[01:05:41]You can you can quite uh reasonably see why Russia has security concerns about its bordering countries.

[01:05:57]Okay? Like for example, if the Russians tried to set up a satellite state in Ireland, I don't think the UK would be very happy about that. Uh same with the Cuban missile crisis when there were Russian like missiles in Cuba supposedly. The Americans weren't happy with that. So you can, you know, you can kind of just pull that example across here and say, well, okay, so if you have the UK here and then Ireland, you know, decided to join bricks or something um and host Chinese and Russian bases in Ireland, then the UK would say, "Hey, we have a security concern. Uh we're going to invade or launch a special military operation to prevent our immediate like neighbor from joining a foreign military alliance." So, you can kind of see how these things happen, right? So the UK has its own security concerns. If Ireland tried to join bricks, that would be a problem. So they would probably uh you know do something about that. And then you had the promise of no further expansion past West Germany in the 50s.

[01:07:14]And then you can see how that has continuously expanded eastwards since then despite explicit promises that that wouldn't happen until you get to Russia's border itself and then they feel like there's no other option but to intervene.

[01:07:31]And how did these how did these countries join NATO? Well, I mean, if they didn't have a pro-NATO government in there, then there was some kind of regime change, manipulation, blah blah blah, you know, political instability to then get a pro-EU, pro- NATO um, you know, government in power. But NATO shouldn't have really expanded past West Germany here in the ' 50s. That was the explicit uh explicit explicit promise or even at the end of the Cold War in at the end of the '9s, early early 2000s, it shouldn't have really expanded. And then you get uh you know these countries 2004 2004 2020 2009 2017 2009 2004 4 20 and then you know most recently the Scandinavian countries also literally bordering Russia. So you know if you were the Russians and you can see this huge military alliance sorry uh expanding further and further east and then it gets to your doorstep.

[01:08:28]I don't see how it's like irrational for them to have really done what they've done. Uh I think if I was a world leader and my borders were being infringed upon, I would be forced to act as well.

[01:08:43]So, uh yeah, just some more some more context there.

[01:08:49]Thank you very much for joining everyone. Hope you enjoyed. I will keep you updated as the day progresses. As always, have a fantastic day and we will speak very soon. Take care everyone.