Ivan repackages basic momentum chasing as a "systematic strategy," offering a disciplined but unoriginal framework for navigating crypto volatility. It serves as a pragmatic survival guide for retail traders, even if it lacks profound financial depth.
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BITCOIN: PUMP CONTINUES!!! Saylor wants to sell? Altcoins, Macro, QnAAdded:
Oh yes, oh yes, yes, yes. Guys, welcome to another episode. And as you can see right now, Bitcoin is pushing higher and higher and higher. We're now at 81.7, setting a new weekly high basically hour by hour by hour. We're now quite significantly above the bull market support band. This is obviously a good point for the bulls. And as you know our strategy is to DCA slowly here above the bullmark experiment and then DCA fast as we bridge the uh the main line. Now some old coins are also doing very very well.
As soon as Zcash as soon as Zcash leave bullish on the money line weekly you see the big explosion big fat explosion. We discussed it that once you have a bullish lip on the money line weekly you have the best possible riskreward entry.
It's not about buying the absolute bottom or selling the absolute top. is about having the best possible riskreward entry. And the best possible riskreward entry looks like this. You buy and bam, big fat explosion because then you can repeat it over and over again in any asset in any market. You can have a nice risk entry explosion to the upside, take profit and then move on to your next one. Compound your capital and protect your capital. Very, very important as well because if it flips bearish, we're out. So this in terms of Zcash. Overall altcoins as you know we're tracking this overall altcoins overall altcoin index if you exclude Bitcoin ETH and stable coins is still at the low. Most altcoins are not doing too much. Most alt coins now not doing too much but Zcash and a few others are pulling it up. So all in all looking at all altcoins this is really I mean still quite depressed time. You look at most of them they haven't moved uh too far but you have a few leaders and that's why positioning is so important. And you have to be in assets which are bullish on the weekly. Bullish on the weekly.
That's very very important. So uh in terms of the uh possible uh rejection line uh with the with the uh bitcoin chart if we look here you have a natural rejection line here at 86 which could be resistance. Maybe we break it maybe not.
But this is the next big resistance to to keep an eye on. And as you remember we've been discussing that should we break up above here you have a trade towards 86 on a shortterm time frame.
Why? Because long-term on big big long-term time frame, we're still bearish on the money line. We're still bearish overall in terms of our trend.
Uh and there are several ways to define it. You have the money line, you have just the natural uh high, lower high, lower high. Uh the only thing which is signaling now is the bullark support.
That's why we are DCAing slowly here.
And then should we continue up fast here and this way you have all cases covered.
Should we go up Valhalla? Fantastic.
Should we go down into the into the buy zone? Uh I know most people now on social media they are bull only but the the thing is with the bare trend still intact there is a possibility real possibility going into the buy zone still you're also good. So no matter what happens you're good. You're never cornered. You're never in one uh particular place where you have to beg for things to work out. We're never cornered. That's very important. And you have big update from Micro Strategy. I will play with this but basically Sailor saying that he will have to sell Bitcoin. Okay. he will have to sell Bitcoin sooner or later. And uh yeah, let me play this.
>> Historically, I guess we're I'm pointing to last year, the end of last year, that there was a false signal that strategy was selling Bitcoin and it was taken negatively in the marketplace. Today, you outline a lot of different optionality uh scenarios that that strategy now has to optimize its capital stack. Should we take today's call as a signal to the market that yes, strategy is willing to to be more proactive with its capital stack, which may include the sale of Bitcoin, maybe for tax purposes or maybe for other optimization purposes, credit, what have you. Um, should we take today's call as a signal that yes, strategy is going to be more uh tactical with its capital stack uh going forward?
Uh yeah, you should. I I think the company got much healthier when we proactively began to utilize the equity ATM and we said it we're going to do it.
We're not ashamed of it. We'll probably do it again. And then when the company started proactively executing on the stretch, the credit ATM and we said we're going to we're not ashamed of it.
We're going to keep doing it. We think it's good and we've got a plan for it.
And now I think at this point to say we're turning on the BTC drive. We're not ashamed of it. We got 65 billion. We We have a, you know, a $2.2 billion tax credit that's lying on the floor, we ought to go find a way to pick up the 2.2 billion, right? And uh and just like, you know, with everything else, the more optionality we create and and uh and the more tools we have at our disposal, I think the better it is for the equity investors. You know what?
Yeah, we'll probably sell some Bitcoin to fund a dividend just to inoculate the market, just to send the message that we did it. Look, the company's fine, the Bitcoin's fine, the industry is fine, the world didn't come to an end. And if you're a short seller and your thesis is the company's got to sell equity in order to fund the dividends, I would like nothing better than to, you know, rip your wings off.
So I guess first and foremost I think personally it is good for Micro Strategy to say that they may have to sell some Bitcoin because it is a fact. It's always been a fact. I've been saying it's a fact. Everyone who's been using their brain have been saying that there is nothing magical per se about Bitcoin just like any other asset. Whether you go leverage with real estate, whether you go leverage with Bitcoin, at the end of the day you may have to sell your assets in order to pay the dividend or to pay the loan back. Like it's a fact.
There's nothing magical with Bitcoin. Of course, all the maxim say, "Oh, no, you know, never sell a Bitcoin." Listen, he has a leverage play here and he may have to sell Bitcoin. It's a fact, fact, fact, fact. So, personally, I think it's good that this industry looks the fact in the eye. When you have a leverage play, you may have to sell the asset.
Yes, it's true. It's true. But of course, it shatters the whole situation with the fact that never sell your Bitcoin. He's been saying it himself, never sell your Bitcoin. Never sell your Bitcoin. Let me play this again. Where does he say this? that they may have to sell and he will actually do it even if he doesn't have to just to show that they're doing it now like to just change the narrative change the zit guys that hey Micro Strategy is now selling Bitcoin listen this and and uh and the more tools we have at our disposal I think the better it is for the equity investors you know you know we'll probably sell some Bitcoin to fund a dividend just to inoculate the market just to send the message that we did it.
Look, the company's fine, the Bitcoin's fine, the industry is fine, the world didn't come to an end.
>> Yeah. So guys, I mean, it's always been like this. It's always been like this.
And I personally think it's good that he's saying that because we need to move away from the Laland. If we can actually have a world where strategy is able to sell Bitcoin without the world coming to an end kind of like you're saying and the the maxis they stop spreading this uh propaganda that uh uh never you know all of this myth mistruth I say untruth untruth that there's some kind of internet money glitch I mean all of these things it is an asset you can go uh you can lever yourself up if you believe in the long-term uh trajectory and that you will not go bankrupt in the meanwhile uh And that works with Bitcoin. It works with many other assets. There there's there's no magic magic here. There's no magic. Okay. Very important. So, uh this guy is saying in strategist earnings call Michael has admit that uh what we've admit what we've been warning for for months. His company will soon sell Bitcoin. Remember the hund times he told everyone he would hold forever. So, uh it was bad to claim that he would hold forever. Uh it it would be better to say that uh listen, it it is what it is. And uh all in all the the way to see it uh the you know the knee-jerk way to see it is bearish.
But the good thing is that it's I mean if we rip off this band-aid and price by the way goes up. You see the markets are actually seeing it as bullish because it removes this sailor risk sailor uh you know magic which everyone who has a brain knows it's not magical but that uh people that are you know just on crypto Twitter may still believe is magic. You know the seller is magical. At the end of the day he's not magic. He's not magical. Okay. Sailor will never sell used to be the narrative. Now the conversation is slowly shifting towards how much he might have to sell. Strategy posted posted a 12.5 billion quarterly loss while discussions are building around potentially selling some bitcoin to service debt carrying 11.5 annual payments. So he has a lot of uh annual payments to pay for the dividend and for that and everything. That's a pretty big shift in tone itself. But the weird part uh bitcoin is up, micro strategy itself is up. So you see that the way to see it I would say is more to the bullish direction because now you have the truth and the truth is uh is appreciated by the market. The truth has always been there but the truth is appreciated by the market and I like that we we need to be upfront with uh with what it is and u yeah it's uh going long Bitcoin with leverage with leverage by raising that and uh yeah potentially uh if Bitcoin goes like he says 30% per year on average for the coming decades uh is going to all play out and yeah it's good that the market knows the the possibilities here that selling Bitcoin may be a real possibility for for sailor and he's saying he wants all kind of possibilities possibilities if he needs to raise money via selling stock or selling stretch or selling bitcoin he has all of the possibilities that's basically what what he's what he's stinging to the market and the market does appreciate the honesty uh and again it removes this risk where potentially you know previously uh where you know people are thinking what the hell like why do we have sailor saying fugazi why is he not up front and now he's up front as you can see is appreciated is appreciated by the price and also by the micro strategy price for 5 years Michael told the world he would never sell Bitcoin last night that changed on the strategies Q1 earns call center admitted his company will probably start selling this is the complete opposite of what what he has been preaching since 2020 uh I mean basically what we just said you can you can read here more but um um I think overall is good now what would be bad if he sells a lot if he sells a lot. He will have to find a balance here. If he starts dumping the price, it would be very very bad. But um it it is in his interest to find a balance to to obviously not dump the price too much.
Um he has a he has to tread a very fine line where the stretch holders all believe he will absolutely sell as much Bitcoin as he has to in order to satisfy the dividend. And the micro strategy Bitcoin holders need to believe exactly the opposite. So he has two different shareholders. the stretch shareholders, I mean, they couldn't care less about Bitcoin. They just need the the dividend uh 11% or per per year paid paid monthly. That's it. Then what happens to Bitcoin, it's none of their business.
It's none of their they don't really care. Obviously, they have to uphold the narrative that Micro Strategy will not go bankrupt because then their shares go down very quick. But in terms of um keeping it at around 100 and ensuring that you can pay dividends, it's uh it's enough for them. It's enough. While Micro Strategy shareholders, MSR shareholders is very different for them.
Uh they need uh Bitcoin per share to go up. They need Bitcoin accumulation etc etc. So he he needs to find the the balance here and that's I think that's what he's trying to do. he needs now to ensure that Wall Street believes him that he has enough money to pay strategy dividend. Okay, so that's that with the uh micro strategy and u uh all in all my conclusion that it's more towards the bullish side than to bearish side because uh it is more bullish that the biggest holder in the world is up front and honest than foring because people still understand that it's a bit of foring. So uh now moving on to some old news, you have uh Sana shipping pay.sh uh SH which is a technology for AI to pay for API access without having to create an account or to sign up.
Basically, it's agent to agent. You can say agent to agent. So agents can use whatever software, whatever APIs they need uh on demand just uh connecting via a web protocol. Listen to this. Now introduce pay.sh.
pay.sh SH lets your AI discover tools for any API that it might need and pay for it using Salana stable coins without any account, without any API keys. And we're really excited to bringing on board Google Cloud as a collaborator for this project.
With Pay, there are over 75 services in a single catalog that any agent can discover, access using MPPP or X42 payment rails, and pay using their favorite Salana stablecoin, whether that's USDC, USDT, cash, PYUSD, and fundamentally pay as you go for every single service, meaning no APIs, no accounts, no subscriptions, no contracts.
Today, Pay is launching with official Google Cloud APIs including BigQuery, Gemini, Cloudr Run as well as over 50 community APIs from ecosystem facilitators. I'll introduce so in a way this is competing with Coinbase protocol that 402 or 402X42 was called, but it's kind of similar.
It's a web protocol where if you have an AI, they can contact an API provider and get access to the API by paying in stable coin. And if you are an API provider, you can accept stablecoin payments from AIS by just exposing your your u API to the to the to the internet with the certain payment protocol that you get paid in stable coins. So that's that. Looking at the Sana price, what do we see here? Coming back towards the 90s. Coming back towards the 90s, I mean Sana would really have to go here into the bull trend to change the picture. uh and the bull trend here. I mean it's not that far away. That's uh it is at 113.
Uh but all in all currently still at this um support uh support level holding the support. Let's see if we can get the booster to the upside. Let's look at the daily. On the daily you have I also have bare trend. On the daily have be trend needs to get to 102 for bull. Let's check on uh 12 hour. 12 hour you need to get to 96.
uh the lower you go in time frame the the less certain is the signal but um um but yeah you get the signal faster here you have actually on the 4 hour you have bullish already you have bullish but it's like super super super short short term uh but so all in all keep an eye on Sana as the bull market comes back there will be a lot of narrative but they also need to find new narrative I mean Sana really has to figure out something here because hype is now the NASDAQ of onchain like undisputed NASDAQ of onchain everything that is trading on NASDAQ it is moving going to hyperlquid.
Uh so in terms of the narrative, it either has to be memes, they need to get a lot of volume uh back from uh from memes. It needs to be that they somehow compete with hyperlquid. They get stock stocks traded on Solana or yeah something else. So let's keep an eye here. But the narrative for Soul currently is missing versus what it was let's say in Q4 last year because in Q4 last year hyperlid wasn't that big. And also the I mean this whole like poly market and everything also developed a lot during 2025 during last year. So those two things have eaten into Sana a lot into the market share of Sena. It's prediction markets and it is the uh NASDAQ on chain with hyperlid. So Sana will have to have a new narrative but at the end of the day you know we trade the chart. So if the chart turns bullish here whether on the weekly or on the daily uh at least if it goes above the bullark support band it will be a signal. Uh now looking at the hype this one is in a bull trend. Bull trend started here in the middle of March now continues to the upside. This is the power again of of weekly bull trend. I mean it's the best when you have weekly bull trend is the best riskreward uh entry. Uh let's check pump what's happening. They did burn a bunch of coins. They did some things here but u not too much is happening to be fair.
Not too much is happening. Uh on the daily let's see is it far away. On the daily it's not too far away from the flip. So still I mean we still need to have quite a big pump uh 20 20% to the bull flip but uh all in all pump is still dominating the meme the meme segment they have revenue no matter what uh coin is not really appreciating that coin is not really getting the love they have been blasting revenue share into the coin now now they removed a portion of the revenue share in the latest update and they also burned a bunch of coins so I I think they conclude that revure does not really work. I mean people dump the coin too much anyway. Uh so yeah let's see how this how this will be. The only revenue share that works currently is hyperlquid. I mean they have the the chart looking nice up guess adoption. Of course the volume on hyperlquid is way bigger than on than on pump. But yeah interesting to see the difference where two protocols have revshare for one is working for another not really working.
Um let's check the stock market. Let's see the NASDAQ. NASDAQ o look here since bullish here. Boom boom boom boom boom up only again. This is the power of the my light. As soon as bull trend on weekly big move, big fat move and now wants to open higher. Wants to open higher. Okay, look at this pre-market. It wants to open even higher. Fantastic. Looking at IGV.
Bitcoin is following HGV a lot. Wants to also open a bit higher. Looking at the uh S&P also wants to open higher. You see here versus here, they also want to go higher. So the markets are ripping currently. Stock markets want to continue to go up. Let's see if Stretch is at 100. Stretch is coming closer and closer to 100. If Stretch is at 100 or more, then seller can raise money and buy Bitcoin. Let's see Micro Strategy.
What's happening? Loading. Loading.
Oh, holy crap. I just saw that. Did you see that? It was the lag from stretch. I think premarket at 100 would be brutal.
So, on the weekly, Micro Strategy is uh entering uh uh bull trend. So, uh yeah, you just have to close the candle here and it's a new weekly bull trend. Let's see how long they can pump. I mean, they have resistance uh here at 312. if they enter a big strong bull trend could be here. Um, always it's nice to bet on a bull trend. You never know whether it's going to be, you know, one of these more flat ones where you still have some I mean, you still have some uh some gain here like 20% to this high uh or if it's going to be a bigger one. But overall, you have a good riskreward betting on on bullish trends. And uh yeah, currently it is above the bullish support band. It is going bullish on the main line. And as you know, we have a simple strategy.
If you're bullish on the money line, we're bullish. If you're bearish, we're bearish. This way, we compound. We protect capital. That's it. And we grow it. Um, let's see what else. Looking Let's look at some other stock index.
What's happening here? DAX, Germany.
What's happening? Not too much. Not too much. Maybe wants to go to alltime high.
Maybe not. German economy not doing too well. It is technically bull trend, but uh yeah, a bit slow. Let's look at uh Swedish stock market. Uh yeah, kind of the same. Kind of derping around, not doing too much. Technically in in technically in bull trend, but lagging behind the US a lot. A lot lot. Let's check the UK.
Um the 100.
What's happening? Not too much. Yeah, I mean the the European stocks are are yeah not doing too well. too much vacation, too much work life balance, not too much work, too much regulation, too high taxation. And it's seen I mean, you see it in the chart. You see it in the chart. So guys, to summarize, what do we have? We have bulls scoring more and more points. We have bulls pushing the price higher. Uh it is above the bull market support band. But our system is still is still what we follow, which is that we're bullish when it is bull trend. We're not bullish if it's bare trend. But we are seeing that we're above the bullark support band. So we DCA slowly here and then for us to be super retardio bull with Bitcoin with altcoins with everything is going to be above here. We follow the system and I mean it is really what pays us long term and also uh most altcoins have not done anything. So it's not there is no rush really. I mean you look at most altcoins where ADA was happening. Yeah you see yourself ADA is like uh you know back in Mara has not done too much. It's like the same price as dot. Okay. So, a lot of altcoin holders are begging for bitcoin to save them. But, uh I mean you see yourself it's uh yeah and this itself is in bon still.
The only exception is hype zcash and like trron. Okay. And those are bull on the on the main line and we've been speaking about them for a long time.
It's tron zcash. Let's see. Tao is tao also. Yeah. Tao is not is not in the same league. It's not in the same league. is Tron, Zcash, and hype. Okay, Suie, I mean, look at this. Uh, still down uh a lot. 80, man. It was down 81%, now it's down 77%. I mean, for for people who've been bullish since October, you know, you're down 81 or you're down 77. It's like potato potato.
It's is the same is the same. So, that's why trend respect is important. You got to respect the trend. Looking at the daily, where does it make sense to be bullish on SUI? For example, I would be bullish here above 1.1 on the daily. And the daily here for SUI is quite strong also. I mean, you can see here the daily has delivered very nice results for SUI.
Uh meaning that uh you don't have too much fake outs. It was bare here and then daily has delivered very nice. I mean sometimes on some assets daily is a bit better than weekly because weekly is slower to react because it's higher time frame. Uh and normally daily has more fake outs but on sui daily has delivered extremely good extremely good meaning very quick reaction no fake outs no fake outs and uh should it go bull here at 1.14 that would be interesting that would be interesting uh riskreward uh let's see you guys can write also in the comment section what what alts you want soon going to go to Q&A again welcome everyone who is watching live big shout out to DAB for timestamping us today. Smash up the like, subscribe.
Let's roll the intro for the Q&A and then it's over to you guys.
Click, click, click. Did you hear that click? It means you have to click. You have to click. You have to click to subscribe, to like, to put the bell and everything. And as always, if you want to get access to our tools, to the money line, to the money scanner, to everything, you go to bulling.com link below. You watch the free training. You sign up for a strategy call where we go through your performance, what you've done, how you've performed in the last bull and bear, did you round trip? Did you not have to be fully honest with us here? And then we explain to you how to fix your uh your problems. Okay, super super straightforward. Video is free, call is free, and then we explain to you how we can help moving forward. And then also if you go to boom.com/partners you have all of the all of all all of the exchanges that we work with whether this is by bit bionex weeks on by bit and uh on by bit and weeks you can go long short with leverage you can go long short stocks uh crypto metals everything bionx you can also do it but they're more for bots if you want automated bots go to pionex and then you can watch the training here again link below boom.com/partners and on this note guys let's go to Q&A questions answers debates, discussions. Let's go, guys.
Let's go as soon as possible. Intro for the Q&A. Exactly. Exactly.
Please, Lord, save my meme coins.
Uh yeah, let's see which which is the strongest memecoin now. Is Morat still speaking about this SPX? Uh what is it?
69.
Let's see what's happening there. It was a while back we checked in on this crab.
But uh Okay. Okay. Okay. Look here. The first thing I can tell you is that it is also kind of like uh with um kind of like with sui the daily time frame is very good here. It has fast reaction and no fake out. He in this case you can even argue that uh daily is a bit better than weekly because weekly as always has a bit slower reaction. is more you know high uh high confidence high uh high value signal but at the same time uh you you have it a bit slower but daily man daily here on S&P has been very nice and daily as you can see here just turned bullish okay just turned bullish barely has pumped from the bull flip which was here so let's see if memes can come back if Murad can pump back his back I think his back was worth like 70 million at the top then it was worth like 5 million million. Maybe it was maybe it's going to come back. Maybe not. But all in all, again, we have a simple strategy. If it's bull here, uh in terms of trading, you let's say you go to buy bit, you go to uh weeks, pionics, like in terms of trading, this does make sense. And here you just need to have different um levels in mind like this would be a resistance uh going to this level likely is going to be resistance. So just keep in mind that you you capture the profit and as you can see you have very good riskreward here uh in the back testing.
So this is why uh everyone who is in bulmania they have the money line and they can see the back tested performance here of how likely it is to get to ATR.
So for example in this case you like in all of the historic daily flips you got one ATR back with 100% certainty. I mean historically it's been like that. What does one ATR mean? If you're not in Bulmania, if I mean, if you don't know trading too much, this is this is foreign to you. If it's foreign to you, you should really watch the the training here. Like, you really need it. But basically, it's a measure of volatility.
So, when you set your stop loss, you don't want to be stopped out based on normal intraday volatility. So, your stop loss normally is going to be based on ATR. And then when you capture profit, your profit needs to be in relation to the risk you take. So if your stop loss which is your risk is based on let's say 180R you need to know how what is the likelihood of you recouping that risk that you just took.
So with SPX has been historically 100% 280R 60% 380R uh to get 380R back is 60%. So all in all good riskreward here for um um for S&P let's check with with hat with USD what's happening dog with hat are we bullish are we bearish what are we oh for now a rejection a rejection from the bull flip also very good daily time frame here it broke down boop turned the turned bearish very instantly basically uh protected all of the downside here should it go bullish the same logic IC here. The same logic here. Here it's a bit lower odds, but it it could be because it had like a small it could be the first ever trend when the chart starts that is like Yeah.
Yeah. See here, I would say it's also 100%. The reason it says 85 is because you had this like you know when the chart started a bit of you know bull bear bull bear. It happens sometimes when the chart is new. Um so if you ignore this if you ignore this which was like a small un n unexistent non-existent uh trend then is historically 100% to reach 180R 100% to reach two 100% to reach 3r based on the mainline flips uh for dog for a dog with hat. So yeah I mean this is the power of the mind you have back testing you have you know the likelihood of hitting ATRs is the best is the best. So that's why again it's all about riskreward like we want to you have a risk you have your stop loss is your risk what is the likelihood of you getting that as profit so that's what the back testing table is showing don't trade you will lose everything if you are uneducated if you haven't gone to bullion.com and you haven't watched the mechanical rules that is very very true I actually have it in my book also uh but the thing is it's only true if you are without knowledge It's like you know you biking for the first time without riding a bike ever before. Okay.
Uh it's it is exactly like that. So you look here in the book we have this thing. You are not alone. You see it.
You're not alone. And here you see that uh 19 out of 20 traders lose money. But here's the thing about the statistic.
It's true but it's misleading. Those people aren't really traders. So, for example, if you have no clue what the hell you're doing, you're going to lose money. But it's it's in trading. It's like that. Yes, it's also in driving the car. I mean, imagine you put yourself behind the wheel. What happens if you have no experience? You know what's going to happen? Okay, the statistic for driving a car maybe is even worse. Okay, if if people just drive without knowledge, maybe, you know, 90 out of 100 crash within the first few hours. So those people aren't really traders. Not in any meaningful sense. The retail mom and pop like, you know, you you open account, you make a trade, you get wrecked. And then everyone is saying, "Oh no, you know, trading is ging everyone." Yeah. I mean, no [ __ ] If you if you don't know what you're doing, you don't go to booming.com. Like you don't educate yourself. And most people sadly, they they don't know what you're doing.
They don't set stop loss. They don't understand. They don't understand. And I see it a lot with, you know, how people react to to news, to to emotions, and everything. I mean it's it is it is it is like that. Um uh and there's a reason why most people lose trading because and they're not traders. Okay, those people aren't really traders. Not in any meaningful sense. They're retal. They're people who saw something on the news and decided to try their luck. They are folks who download an app, deposit some money, and started pressing buttons without any real understanding of what they're doing. Most people who never learn to swim will drown. Will drown if you throw them in the deep end. Exactly.
And most people who have never properly learned to trade will lose money when they try. This isn't because trading is impossible. It's because they're attempting something difficult without any preparation. Exactly. And the best thing you can learn like it's it's not rocket science. But here's the upside, guys. Here's the upside. If you I mean, if you actually exit that mindset, which is oh no, everyone just lo I just showed you that it's it's a limiting belief. It is a very very limiting belief you have.
If you just uh think everyone is just losing, everyone loves a limiting belief. Instead, the upside is very big of being uh uh when you're good at trading because look here, whatever you're doing now, AI likely going to replace you. Brian Armstrong just said yesterday that 14% of Coinbase is going to be fired. Why? Because of AI. You can read here. He's saying, you know, fewer layers, faster decisions, no pure managers. If you're some kind of middle manager just sipping coffee and speaking and talking and uh you know running your mouth using your cookie hole to like communicate.
Uh listen, it's not needed that much anymore. It's not needed that much. And mo most people are in the danger zone in the danger zone of of AI because listen, I worked in corporate. I worked in corporate. Uh my first ever job as a developer was at Ericson in uh in Sweden and man I can tell you it is relax it was relaxation. It was really again I as a you know young computer scientist I come in there I'm like okay guys let's go let's go you know I'm excited I'm excited I'm like alone there because it was you know some guy he's just relaxed then it was uh you know June came everyone disappeared for vacation then okay then I continued into autumn when people came back okay at least they were there but it was many coffee it was many coffee many discussion many water cooler what you what did you do this we, you know, maybe they start focusing around 11:00 and then it's lunch at 12. 12:00 is lunch.
Okay, lunch, go to lunch, take food, discuss. Okay, after lunch maybe um 1 1:30 you're back. Okay, but then you get hit with this post lunch uh sleepiness.
So, a bit more a bit meeting and then of course what what's happening? Meeting happens then meeting.
What got done? I don't know what got done guys. Honestly, I don't know what got done. So, all most of the office workers, their productive hours per day, maybe one, two, three, potentially four if you're good. And maybe, you know, you want you want to you you want to perform, but it's just like the whole system does is not really allowing that.
So, anyway, uh firing 14%. By the way, I said that it's bullish for the company.
I I said bullish for the company. pre- AI companies, companies that started before the AI, they have to cut cut the fat. Cut cut fire.
It's very important. It's very important. Uh now, if you read the comments here, people did not like that I said so. Look here. This guy saying, "Ivan, I understand you should not be saying stuff like that.
Some guy called me an idiot here." You look here. Look here. Idiot.
If I read comments under this post, under Brian's post, many people are negative because they kind of assume that Brian owes them a job. They're like, "Oh, but did you explore this and that?" Like, "Why did you sponsor White House ballroom instead of keeping your employees?" Bro, what are you speaking?
Like, if if he makes a deal with Trump, Trump gives him a bunch of deals. It's going to be profit. Employees a cost.
You understand? Sponsoring Trump Ballroom. I don't even know if they did that, but let's say they did that.
sponsoring Trump ballroom instant profit. He gets a deal. He gets something. Okay. Employee your ass. It's cost.
It's cost. Now, sorry guys to be harsh.
I'm sorry to be harsh. Like I understand like of course there's a human side. Of course people like I understand that. I understand that. But at the same time, what are we here? Are we here to kumbaya with therapy and understanding and spreading love? We can do that. It's not going to help us. Like that's the problem. It's not going to help us. It's not going to help us. Way better to focus on the solution. What is the solution? Solution is that you become good at financial markets. I think that trading, becoming an owner of assets, uh working with financial markets, that's the place to be in the age of AI.
Whatever the hell you're doing, whether it's office, meeting, like man, it's a question of time. It's that's why I love finance. I love finance. I thank destiny that I am I didn't have to be full-time software developer because they are getting slaughtered now in the job market like no tomorrow. I found crypto.
I became good at Marcus. Like I thank Destiny like thank you very much that it happened. I'm thinking imagine if I would be like full-time dev. It would be a very like more difficult position to be in versus being good at trading being good at invest investing and it's it's open to everyone. Like I share on Twitter that I started uh but you should follow on Twitter. I share my story on Twitter. I started dirt poor in the ghetto son of immigrants social housing yada yada crypto changed my life trading changed my so it's pos like wherever you are whoever you are it's possible but you need to remove the limiting belief.
The limiting belief is that you know as soon as you start traing you're going to get wrecked. Well yeah if you if you don't know what you're doing it's true.
Uh that's why you go to bulln.com you learn you understand what's happening.
Very important.
Yo, Ahmed or Azad? Maybe I I do you want to me to call you Azad or Ahmed? Because you have Azad, Ahmed and both, but I I think you like Azad more. So, RSI cannot be traded. I know, but oversold on the daily last two times led to uh big flash. You mean overbought or or over oversold? Oversold. Well, uh uh it can happen that sometimes you have that something becomes overbought and and it dumps. The problem with trading RSI only is that it can stay overbought for a very long time, very very long time. You can have things overbought for months and they triple in price. So that's why it's better to to follow the trends uh and uh to to keep it simple to keep it simple and u not worry too much about RSI as a thing to make decisions on. And instead uh when you have uh overbought and the trend is green, it's more as a confirmation. It's more of a confirmation that uh the trend is strong. So I mean that that's how I see should the uh the trend be green in any asset and RSI is overbought, it's actually bullish. Okay, that's how I use it. I mean for me it works like that. Uh that uh don't sell as soon as it's overbought. I mean in many cases that's that goes against the whole trend following um system and trend following is the best system ever. Uh instead use it. I mean yes it is overbought but the asset can triple and it is still overbought. So I I see it more as a confirmation that the trend is strong.
Uh so the same thing with oversold by the way. I mean look here. Sui has been in bare trend since October. We did the risk the October uh uh October 8th as you remember is just bare bare bare bare bare. RSI probably oversold as hell. Is it time to buy because it's oversold?
No. Absolutely not. It's not time to buy when RSI is oversold. Is a confirmation that the trend is bare and people are dumping the crap. And uh should we turn bull then you know that RSI overbought which it likely is going to be overbought. It's is good. It's good.
So yeah, that's why trend following that's how trend following works.
Do you think that Berserker Hatheraway will be generational opportunity if it goes down to its 200 week moving average? Yeah. So, let's let's see Berserker because Warren Buffett is not really buying anything like he's u he's fading he's fading this rally in the stocks. The market doesn't really like it. Uh let me turn off the support band. Let's let's just look at the trend. So the market does not really like that uh that Buffett is fading. Uh it's now bearish. I mean yeah bearish is bearish.
You have a support here at 200 moving average. Will it get get there? Uh let's see. Let's add more moving averages because I think 200 week may be a bit too a bit too greedy for Burkshire. But let's let's turn all of them on. But yeah, that's the next one. There's no there's nothing else. It's does they're already below all the other ones.
They're already below all the other ones. So that's the next one. Basically, they're below 50. They're below 100. So yeah. Uh all in all, Bureer, they are saying that they're not buying this um this pump. Uh uh yeah. So it's better now. I don't know if it's going to get to 200. It would be It would be if it does, it's it's a perfect deal. It's a great deal. Uh should it turn bullish, you also turn bullish. That's it. That's it.
Um but you see Bircher is slightly more choppy here. You see the ATR percentage it's on the Let's Let's see on the daily how it is.
Yeah. In this case, for example, you have lower odds here than trading uh shots uh sorry trade taking your shots in um in um in shitcoins because here you know it's up and down it's volatility is a bit higher than in like sui who is down only and then it's up only. So in this case just looking at the back testing it's it's a bit too noisy uh for my taste. Um I mean seriously like bull it's it's it's too noisy. You still have good odds. I mean overall you have good odds to capture one ATR to capture 2 ATR. But this is why ideally ideally as soon as bull market is back in alts man also going to be the easy mode. It's going to be the easy mode because there it's either down only or it's up only. Down only or up. I mean that's the best when it just trends like crap. Trends like you know like a mfr. Did you say that?
Just translate. We need that. We need trending like mfers. Okay.
This chopping a bit. Chop chop chop chop. Yeah. Uh let me see. Is is it the same in the other one? Let's see.
Why it chops that much? It's uh let's see if it's uh the same in the other one. Uh this one is newer. No. Nice.
It's similar. Although here you have better ACR odds.
Uh but yeah so to answer your question should it go to 200 week long-term accumulation would be fantastic for berkshire be fantastic if you are uh trading it on the lower time frames you have better charts to trade uh you have absolutely so yeah that that would be my read on it pango pango what's happening let's check pango the penguins. Where are the penguins?
See, you you want like this big trend down, big trend up, big trend down.
That's the easy mode. Now, looking at penguins, uh a bit below the bull flip.
Now, let's look at daily. On weekly, it's a bit below. On daily, it's above now since u few days ago.
And here, oh you have so nice daily for shitcoins actually daily works fantastic because their elevator up elevator down.
Okay, so Pangu and Sooie and everything like mine line on the daily it's so nice. It's fantastic. It it's uh as you can see it's very consistent. It doesn't have fake outs and uh when it flips you get the signal uh early as well. So um yeah it broke down here in uh in August uh in August. Since then bear bare bare bear bear now for the first time in since August basically going bull. So yeah a bit of reversal a bit of reversal.
What's your hype dream target like 30 for soul? I mean hype doesn't have the same because soul is literally at the at the massive support with no support beneath it. Hype doesn't have it. I mean hype you you don't have the same. So I don't really have any like uh dream target in the in the same way. Saul is has a special chart here where it is uh uh on the brink of uh of the cliff uh as you remember on weekly here uh soul has a very special chart here where should this play out and again I don't know if it's going to play out but should should they start breaking down here then uh yeah then it is playing out. uh should we go to bull trend then this idea isn't validated but soul has a very special setup here which is you don't have it in hype so it's not um uh there's nothing similar basically ton weekly flip on the minor yeah so ton I believe went bullish after the announcement that they are going to like the ton telegram the company they are going to be now managing it instead of the foundation. Exactly. So, we still need to close the week. The week is still confirming as you can see, but should it close, which it likely will.
It's a new bull trend on the weekly. Uh let's check daily if daily maybe is also good. Yes. See, for Tom, daily is not as good as for other ones. It has more chop here. But for daily, it is also confirming the the bull flip here for the last three days.
And on weekly, it's going to flip. Yeah.
at the end of the week is going to be uh confirmed but you could frontr run the confirmation also. I mean the you see the candle yourself and you can take a bit more risk you can front it before the confirmation but according if you want to do it by the book then then wait for for confirmation by the time you confirm the bull for soul. Yeah. So uh for sold you have uh uh it depends on which time frame but on weekly bull flip is 113 on daily it's around 100.
Yeah 102 102. Uh again our goal is not to buy the the exact bottom or sell the exact top. It is to ride the most of the trend and then continue in different bull markets over and over in different assets. So that's I mean I've been showing you here in the on the Bitcoin chart bull bear bull bear like just following bull bear on Bitcoin is the most profitable strategy ever just bull bear bull bear bull bear but most people they cannot even follow the simple thing because I mean number one they hold all the way down number two they try to pick the bottom and yeah they try to pick the bottom and it just keeps bottoming uh try to pick the just keeps bottoming instead that no one knows where the bottom is. You want to be in the best possible riskreward and uh that is when the new trend is confirmed. New trend is confirmed fantastic to the upside and this what allows us allows us to grow capital again. Bullman is all about profit compound protect profit you capture most of the trend. Fantastic. Uh then you compound meaning you can take it to next bull market. you basically save your profit and you can repeat it in the next bull or you can repeat it in another industry like with AI or whatever but it only works if you can protect capital if you lose your capital you round trip it just doesn't work you need to protect capital very important uh and remember compounding is the is it the ninth or the eighth wonder of the world I keep forgetting compounding is the compounding How many wonders are there?
Eighth. Eighth. Eighth. Eighth wonder of the world. But it only works if you have money. You have no money. Compounding does not work.
Hard to compound if you live in the EU or Canada because they take more than half of gains. That that's a big problem. Yeah, there are many countries with zero or single digit tax in the world and uh that's why it's better to be there because just like u yeah I mean this is the problem guys this is the dark side of uh of u not following the trend because with a trend you have fantastic bull flip fantastic bare flip if you are not disciplined let's say like you trade a bunch in the in the bull let's say you make profit but And if you also roundtrip, you still owe taxes for whatever you traded the previous year. You still owe taxes for the previous year, especially if you live in a high tax country. So if you round trip, it's very bad.
And uh you may be able to deduct some of the loss, but it's not guaranteed that it's going to be in the same year. It's also not guaranteed that you can deduct all of the loss in many countries. I believe Sweden included, you cannot deduct all of the loss. You can deduct like what 80% of the loss. Meaning that if you made $100 and then you sold you like you you you realized the gain and then you bought another asset and it dumped back and now you have realized loss. It's a big problem because you still owe tax.
Okay, it's a big problem.
It's a big problem. So ideally you want to be somewhere where there's low tax.
Um there are places in Europe, there are places uh I mean Puerto Rico maybe for you Americans. Uh but it's important to to think about that because it's a it's a big factor especially as we love compounding. It's a big factor. It's a very very big factor here in Greece. 13 to 23% tax. Yeah.
Ideally you want to keep it towards the 13. But also, you know, many people they they have an old coin and they hold it down 99% because they were afraid to sell because they they said that they would owe tax. Okay. How much is your tax? Is it 20%, 30? But you held down 99, man. Yeah. You don't want to be there either. Tax is also because it's messing with your brain is I I see it a lot. I see it a lot. you have a trading strategy but then the tax component is messing with your brain because you don't want to sell because you know it's going to be taxed okay but then it goes down like I think many people like held sui down like that sui was here was said to be riskoff in uh in October uh and yeah people said here but what about the tag okay now you have and you have bigger tax now now you held down 70%. So yeah, anyway, in Turkey, it 0% for capital gains for now, but we'll probably change. It's good. I mean, it's good. Hopefully, they don't change.
Do you think most altcoins have already bottomed? Uh, I don't know if they have bottomed or not. I just know whether they're bearish or bullish. As long as they're bearish, to me, it's uh they have not bottomed. If they turn bullish, let's say Sui turns bullish, then the chance is higher. But at the end of the day, guys, no one knows what's going to happen. There's there's no no way to be Baba Vanga or Nostradamus or see the future. Uh we just see what kind of trend it is. Is it trending bullish?
Most likely we have either a big bottom like a like a major bottom or it is a macro bottom. There's no way to know for sure because if it would be for sure, it would be not a market. It would be a vending machine or something. You put in one coin, you get two coins back. It's something like that. So whether or not they have bottomed, I think will will we'll have to look at the trends. I mean, that's how I do it. That's how I do it. And then if you look in general on all of the altcoins as a whole as an uh as an aggregate uh on daily it's also still uh in u in bare trend. So uh if they can if the whole market cap of alts can pump 10% more 11% more then you can say with higher likelihood that uh it's either a major bottom or a macro bottom but you don't know which one. That's the problem. You never know which one. Is it a major or a macro bottom? You don't know. But it's still good riskreward.
Again, I'm speaking about risk reward all the time. It's good riskreward to take a bet when things go bullish. And then if you are wrong, let's say it was a major bottom and then it pumps and it stalls out and collapses. Okay, you're going to see the the bare flip. Boop, you're out. That's it. Protect capital.
That's it.
Will you buy SpaceX IPO? Have you already bought the preappo? No. No. I I will uh uh because with the um I mean the valations are very high already for for SpaceX on Anthropic and all the other like AI IPOs and normally when things IPO uh they do dump normally they do dump. So I I mean throughout my career investing there are very few cases where it IPOs and it goes Valhalla because IPO in one way or another it is a exit liquidity event in one way or another. Okay. more or less depends on which coin which company but more or less it is a liquidity event for the employees to get some money to get you know to to get some liquidity so you look at Coinbase for example it was a very hyped IPO you you didn't have to buy it at IPO you can buy it later so either you are super insider this is how I'm thinking about this either you are super insider like you know you you either invested super early or you know someone with that you know, maybe they have an option or something like, you know, either you are insider for real and you can buy it at valuation which is way lower than the initial price that's going to be trading on the stock exchange and because then you can dump within the the first uh the first weeks and days. So either you're that or you're pleba and if you're pleba which I mean all of us here are pleba in the in this context in this context where we're not insiders we're not employees we're not we're pleba and most employees are also plebbea because for them they you know they they get their stock I mean they are they they don't have too much decision there but we are pleba okay when in this context so the best strategy for plebbea is to is to just see how it plays out in the market. Let it calm down. Likely it's going to dump a lot. Likely it's going to dump a lot. And uh uh and then enter when there is a good uh bull trend that is starting. Okay. And uh with preipo, you know, some people think they are insider, but they're just big time play.
So yeah, I don't know the terms for the preappo, but it's in most cases it's not like you get like super nice deal, you know, like 80% discount from the uh from the listing or even, you know, 50% discount. Uh but let me know if you uh if you what kind of deals they are doing because I'm also I'm myself I'm not doing too many preipos because for me historically is I I felt more like you know a plebber who thought that they are not pleba but you're still plebber you get like expensive stock and then it dumps anyway so yeah as long as you are not real insider I would just wait for it to list see what happens let it play out see what No rush. It's not going to just go to Valhalla in most cases instantly. So you have uh Coinbase. Let's see Robin Hood. Didn't they also IPO? Yeah, you see you see Robin Hood the same. Robin Hood the same. They IPO and then boop.
Robin Hood the same from this here to here 90%.
Base Coinbase how much they fell or Coinbase?
Uh, Coinbase fell from here to here also 90%. Like it's not a small fall, they fall 90%. I don't know what kind of uh incentive like what kind of uh discount you need for this to make sense.
And um which other companies IPOed recently? Let's check some some other IPOs. U which other ones IPOed recently that were like hyped hyped that everyone knew about. Coinbase down 90%, Robin Hood down 90%. Uh, and as you can see, they still recover. Like now they they recover. They're great companies at the end of the day. Uh, but it's all about which price you get and you want to have good price balance here. But they didn't they IPO long time ago? Yeah, they IPOed long time ago.
Yeah, this one is a bit different. This one uh IPOed here then had a run up but then had the return to lower.
So this hype phase here lasted a few more months. I mean normally in Coinbase and Robin Hood it was like they dumped the same week. Here it was highace for a bit and then they entered the real price discovery. Here they I mean this was the real price discovery here. We figure out everything. We figure out because here you know this initial hype emotion get in Palencier my your stock broker displays a big sign to you in the brokerage get in you know it's it's a lot of hype then real price discovery starts later on to figure out okay what is the actual supply demand here what is the actual business and then it it it goes up.
Yeah.
Fiddle mode. Ivan, what would you build in the in this market environment? I want to have your building mentality and way of thinking.
So building it's uh I mean it depends on your goal. you you want to build something, it's you you need to understand that building something, it's uh it's it's it's towards the harder side of uh making money. It's towards the harder side. Like if you want to become rich, you need to be up you need to be upfront like do what is your goal here? Do you love building? Because then you should build. Do you really like enjoy building? Then you should build.
But you should know that it's not the fastest way to make money in this market. Um, most people that build, they fail, okay?
They fail. Most people that uh trade and they have a system and they follow trends, they make money. Okay? So, you can you could I mean, you could build you could build it's just uh it's going to take number one to build something great, it's going to take a long time.
It's going to be many question marks.
You need the team this and that. Like it's it can be it can be a success story like there are many of them whether it is polyarket. So I don't want to discourage either. I mean it's it's good that you have some you know motivation to do it it can be very good. It's just that you know looking at expected value expected value meaning that if you take look at all the builders everyone who is excited to build and you look at what they have accomplished after many years like many years focusing most of for most of them it's zero for most of them zero. Okay. So you can be the breakout story Mark Zuckerberg you know you you watch social network movie you you're building so it's one thing and building is easy man building is is that's the easy part to get users to get traction that that's the hard part I mean building nowadays you have you have AI help you can hire like building is you know end to end process you have step one and then you have step two bum bum bum that's like the you don't need to use your brain too much if I'm being approach like building it's a like lower risk lower Um, yeah, you don't you don't need to be a brainiac there. It's it's a it's a clear step by step. You make a plan, you execute it. You still need smart engineers to do it. You can maybe vibe code a prototype. You still need smart engineers to do it, but you know, building is going to happen. It's going to happen. It's like the It's like building a house, man. You have a permit. You have a You can build a house. So, go build the house. It it's it's end to end. like it's understood process end to end. That's why I'm saying that, you know, it's not really the business defining element. Anyone can raise money and hire devs. That's not if you have money, you have devs and you can find good devs and they build end to end. Okay, that that's not the hard part. So, you know, build building is easy. The hard part is who the hell is going to pay for it? Who is your client? Why they will say goodbye to their money to pay for it? Will they use it? Will they not use it? Okay, maybe a few guys use it and you get excited but then no one else wants to use it. So like the hard part is adoption. Adoption super hard. Marketing adoption, acquisition channel, that's the hard part. Building, you know, it's it's easier. It's easier. It's a it can still be challenging. I mean it can still be challenging to build. You know, you you want to build bur khalifa. It's a bit challenge. You know, maybe new technologies like but still it's end to end. You understand? there's less uh uncertainty. There's less uncertainty.
So if you want if you want to make money there are different I mean I I'm telling you that's why I wrote a book about financial markets big profits I would focus on on investing and trading if you want higher expected value. Okay. So, anyway, hope that makes sense. Uh, hope it's not like too de demotivating, but uh, ignore building because building is easy. A monkey can build. I mean, sorry to be so harsh, but it is like that. Uh, you still need smart people. You need a good team. You need good developers. But from like business perspective, it's like the easiest, most understood part of the journey to build, to write code. It's the most understood.
And if it would be so easy, it would be fantastic. I I would computer scientist, I would love for it to build that way.
As long as you build, they're gonna come, man. No one is coming.
If you don't ensure they come, no one's going to come. And you know, when you say build, I love building. It's a defense. It's a psychological defense the geeks have. And I'm telling you that because I myself, you know, computer scientist and and geek as well. But it is a psychological defense we geeks have to not have to promote or sell or anything because our best case scenario is that we sit in our room alone and we click buttons and magic happens, you know, but it's doesn't work like that. It does not work.
So yeah, that's that vibe coding in Claude is just speedrunning of realizing how shitty your ideas are. That's true.
That's true. Exactly. You you you can vibe code something in claude. You can uh test it. Does anyone care? No one cares. If they care, you say, "Oh, by the way, you are on the wait list."
Ideally, you can also have people pay.
Let's say that you build something and you say, "Okay, to be on the wait list, you pay." How many people pay? Not many.
Okay.
Uh so anyway, let me know if you have more questions. But that's that. Oh, we're above one hour. That's it, guys.
No more questions. We're above one hour.
too long, man. Man, this Q&A, why are they so long? They become so long, I forget the time. But you know the saying, you know, time flies when you have fun. It's fantastic to be here with you guys every day, discussing the markets, going through them together.
Let's see what's going to happen here with the uh with the charts. Uh but bulls are scoring more points above bull market support band. Uh all coins, some of them are breaking out from the uh from the bare trend. Most of them don't do anything. So, we will be following step by step by step whether it's to the golden Valhalla, whether it is to the Bzone. Let's see if we're going to say goodbye to the Bzone or if we're going to come to the Bison. I see you all tomorrow. Smash the like. Have a good day and goodbye guys. Goodbye. I go like a
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