The AI revolution is creating unprecedented demand for semiconductor infrastructure, with memory chip manufacturers like Micron experiencing significant supply constraints that drive pricing power and sustained growth. The world remains compute-constrained, meaning demand far exceeds supply, which creates opportunities for multiple chipmakers to succeed rather than zero-sum competition. This demand is being fueled by agentic AI adoption and enterprise AI implementation, with leading AI labs like Anthropic and OpenAI reporting substantial revenue growth. The semiconductor industry is undergoing a fundamental transformation from cyclical consumer-driven patterns to secular growth driven by hyperscaler data center buildouts, with memory companies projected to generate $770 billion in profits by 2027.
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The News On NVIDIA Stock, Micron, Intel - NVDA Update
Added:But you think about that strategic partnership there to build chips and do it here onshore in the US. You think about what Nvidia did.
>> Okay. So, so let's back up what we're talking about here. So, um Trump this morning um posting on Truth Social and talking about that Intel has had agreements with various companies to manufacture chips and now he's saying they have some sort of agreement with Apple. We don't have details on it. We don't have details yet and we don't have I don't think we have confirmation from the companies themselves as of yet. So that's the caution, but Intel shareholders aren't waiting. They're bidding up the stock by% >> and if it's accurate, they should be.
>> But I also think beyond the reaches of the US government, you think about what took place between Nvidia and Taiwan Semiconductor. Nvidia, the largest seller of chips in the world, doesn't make their own chips. Taiwan Semiconductor does. But Nvidia was smart because they partnered with Taiwan Semiconductor to build the capacity here in the US in Phoenix, Arizona to design their own chips and manufacture their own chips here in the US. That created an abundance of new jobs in the United States and it benefited the surrounding community in Phoenix, Arizona. And that's just one of three plants they're looking to build here. So there is an added component to actually increasing the labor force when everyone's so focused on AI taking away from the labor force. But is that sustainable?
>> Well, and that's something Jeff Bezos said at a conference yesterday, too. He thinks AI is going to increase the workforce, not decrease it. In fact, Miles Odlin, I mean, I won't say he was smarter than Jeff Bezos, but this is something he talked about frequently in our conversations. He would say, "If I was a corporate leader, I would be leaning against that tide and saying, "No, we're going to be hiring because AI will create more demand and we're going to need more people."
>> Micron hit a new all-time high this week. Actually, it's had several all-time highs. It's $1,100 a share right now. You think did you still think it's undervalued? Undervalued?
>> Well, how many times have you and I spoke about this? Look, we've underestimated over and over again. And next week when they print earnings, we're going to continue to see just how significant this capacity constraint is and just how much pricing power these memory companies have. So, yes, Micron is still undervalued. Having said that, it's been a great run. We've been pounding the table since around 80 bucks. So, it's been it's been incredible >> back then.
>> Speaking of wild rides, I think this week I I lost count maybe seven, eight upgrades of Micron. This, you know, yesterday they were three or four.
Today, three. What's really amazing about this folks is I didn't have it here where these companies were before.
So, I think yesterday web bush had a target of 550 and now they're at 1300.
This is across the board. I mean, just why do you think Wall Street has been so slow to this? Is it growing that rapidly that all of a sudden in 24 hours you you see a a you this is rare to take your price target up 200%.
I I think the street had just been very flatfooted in the sense that memory 10 years ago had this boom bust cycle because memory was a fundamentally different situation when it was humans using it. when you have computers meeting the use themselves, uh the these AI uh centers, the hyperscalers, their incredible needs for memory. Those are not shrinking. They're growing rapidly.
They've sold out everything that they can produce in 26. They've sold out the early part of 27. It's hard to imagine you're not going to have some understand. So, your big three memory makers, right? Samsung, Highix, and Micron. $770 billion in 2027. That's the profits they're going to make. The mag six, the mag six, 600 billion, less than these three companies for next year.
They're trading at 17 trillion. These three companies only 3.6 trillion. This suggests either this can come and catch this or vice versa. But you got to think it's this first the first scenario.
>> Yeah, it's pretty wild when you look at the numbers that they're very likely to make and those are very likely to be underestimates.
>> Yeah, I agree. All right, so let's talk about the AI winner. We've talked about it a lot today. I've talked about it a lot all week because for me, Micron is the biggest name out there, the most important name out there. Today, uh, Stifel said it's raised his target on it and they set some earnings estimates. I want folks to take a look at this. If Stifel is right, the company is going to make $159 next year versus $75 this year and will be cheaper. It will go from a 13.9 PE to a 6. I mean, it's it's hard to fathom that it could double up and still be half the price on sale.
>> You know, Charles, investing ultimately comes down to supply and demand. And for years, investors were chasing a shrinking supply of publicly traded stocks. But as these large mega cap companies go public, the SpaceX, the Open AI, the Anthropic, it is creating demand that we're seeing show up in the microns of the world, in the AI infrastructure buildout, in the data center buildout. In fact, that demand has been validated even in the last 24 hours. Apple's Tim Cook, one of the most credible people, an eye on the consumer, is saying, "I can't get the chips that I need for Micron. I'm going to have to raise prices." And Charles, what that's telling us is I'm going to have to keep my iPhone a little bit longer or I'm going to have to pay up for it. So, demand is not the problem here. And as these companies go public, you'll start to see those benefits. And, you know, we're going to get real test with Micron's earnings coming up next week.
and we'll see what that really looks like. The question is just expectations.
It's not about earnings. We know the earnings are going to be great. Does it meet investors elevated expectations?
So, it's an exciting time, Charles. But I think the real story here is as we think about the second half of the year, we think about all these companies benefiting from this massive capital expenditure buildout that's going on right now. As these companies GO PUBLIC, THERE'S A TON OF companies out there that are just getting started and and riding the coattails of that productivity. So to me that's the better story for investors here. It's not of course the exciting story about Micron and Nvidia and all these names but all these companies that are just getting going that participation that really kicks into high gear in that second half of the year.
>> Well you think about the news that we got from Amazon today basically in talks to sell chips their own chips for use in other companies data centers. You do have this trend emerging where Amazon, some of the other cloud companies are developing their own alternatives to Nvidia's GPUs. Nvidia shares higher today, but is this a longerterm risk for Nvidia? How are you viewing that?
>> I mean, the one thing we know for sure is that, you know, Amazon and Google TPUs, they have a very sizable business in-house consumption of their own chips.
In fact, Amazon did quantify that to be around $20 billion business which all of the chips are being consumed inside AWS.
Same thing for Google TPUs. In fact, Google TPU now has a backlog with Enthropic for $200 billion. So it is a risk but at the same time this is a very large market and that's where you know it doesn't have to come at the expense of Nvidia and that's what Nvidia keeps calling out that they have a lot of demand visibility uh you know when it comes to their customers >> and now it sounds like they're going to raise prices of handsets probably substantially otherwise they wouldn't be talking about it. That's an acknowledgment that memory chip prices are going to stay high for a while. And if you look at Micron still at 11 times earnings, to believe that it's only worth 11 times earnings is to believe that we're not going to be paying for memory prices uh at a higher rate for very much longer. And so today, Apple saying that yes, we will. So much so that we're going to raise the prices of our handsets is a very positive indication especially of demand for memory chips such as the ones Micron makes >> swept up within the scarcity trade Gil that that is pushing the entire sector across the board higher pretty much um is this notion that that Intel's CPUs that that Intel is also deserving of this sort of let's project into the future and believe it because if you want to believe the story about Apple tying up with Intel You also have to believe that its foundry business is actually capable of producing the products that Apple wants at volume. Is is this 10% move higher justified or is it just getting swept up um with all the other stories which you seem to believe is fundamentally driven?
>> Yeah. So I think you're pointing to to the dislocation that we have in the market right now. If you look at shares of Micron or Nvidia for that matter, the market is implying that the cycle is peaking either this year or next.
Otherwise, there would be it would make no sense to pay 11 times for Micron and 20 times for Nvidia. While for Intel the market is now implying that clearly this is going to continue to rise through 2028 2930 otherwise we believe that Apple would need this capacity of the new technology that isn't coming till 2028. So Intel at these valuation implies that the cycle is going on through the end of the decade while Micron and Nvidia's valuation imply that the cycle is about to roll over. That's a dislocation. That doesn't make sense. You can either believe one or the other, not both. Uh, and on Intel, we can all get excited about the fact that they have a potential to sign new customers for their new nodes, but I think as as you were implying there, there's a lot of execution ahead for Apple to be able to use their chips, for Elon be able to use their new 14A technology, there's a lot of execution ahead. It's not enough to do the deals. uh we have Li Bhutan doing amazing deals with the government with all the largest technology companies but now there's a lot of people at Intel that need to execute on that and as we know over especially over the last decade the execution from Intel has been very uneven so to believe that this valuation is justified you have to believe that they're going to execute well for the next three or four years without much of a hitch that's a lot >> hey Jean you know you and I talk more frequently than you're on here and you've been consistent for 3 years as it relates to Nvidia that when you look at consensus numbers that they are not high enough and they've been beating the bar consistently. This is something that I thought would have slowed down dramatically. This is stuff that you and I have uh argued about a little bit but this year they're expected to do 80% earnings and sales growth and the margins are really stuck here in the mid70s. When I say stuck here, amazing that they're still here at 75%. So you have that expected deceleration of 40% earnings and sales growth for the next fiscal year, >> right?
>> Are they going to beat it again? And and is the stock too cheap at 17 times?
>> Uh the simple answer is they're going to beat the 40%. They've given their language at uh their developer conference a month and a half ago was basically got you to the 40% for next year. Sophie's already talking about that they're probably and just given everything we're hearing about what's going on in the pricing environment and demand is probably a sign that they're going to be the probably the best indicators of what's going on with Google and how they've raised this money recently this 80 billion end up being 85 billion to fund some of their capex that's relative to Nvidia of course because they'll be spending more with that but what it comes down to I think one of the biggest benchmarks is the street was looking for is as you mentioned looking for 40% growth for Nvidia the uh for the hyperscalers the capex growth was around 15%. Now, since the Google News that's bumped up to the low 20s, but the reality is that they're probably going to be growing in the 40% range and I expect ultimately Nvidia is probably a 60 to 70% grower next year.
>> At the close, we get the most consequential quarter of the week and it's Micron. Now, this stock's up about two about 300% for the year. So, I think Micron needs to beat and then raise for well beyond the consensus to continue to go higher. If it does though, this memory chip maker, it can sore because of the shortages. Anything less than a blowout though is going to be a problem.
Luckily, micron chips are in such short supply that they have insane pricing power. That's great for the stock, but it's terrible for the consumer as these higher memory costs are now being passed on by the likes of Apple and most of the uh entertainment uh devices that you may be buying. Everybody wants cheap phones, but they're getting harder and harder to make. We need to talk about why.
Yesterday we learned that Apple plans to raise prices to pass on the soaring cost of memory and data storage or more specifically the cost of the semiconductors that handle those things.
We have an acute shortage of memory chips. They're made by only a few companies and most of the memory that gets made is being snapped up by the super rich hyperscalers at what can only be considered alarming prices if you make cell phones. Apple of course makes cell phones. Now we know there are shortages everywhere in this particular food chain. Almost no one saved Nvidia's Jensen Wong saw the demand from the data centers coming in the memory space. The companies that make these chips have been burned many times by horrendous downturns.
They're reluctant to add manufacturing factor too quickly because it's blown up in their face in the past. They got a late start on this ramp because their balance sheets in some cases were in tatters. But this shortage has gone on long enough that they're building lots of foundaries. Micro which reports next week will tell you it's embarking on a buildout that's what could cost hundreds of billions of dollars. Unfortunately, they started late because the company again was losing money in 2023 barely profitable 2024. They couldn't even afford to think about a big buildout till last year and it takes a long time to put up a semuctor foundry. They were conservative shouldn't crime to be conservative. So I don't see this chip shortage abating anytime soon and that makes all sorts of electronics more expensive. Apple can get away with raising the price of its phones in part because perhaps at $200 some of that's going to be cost more by the phone companies. Not not by you. But I do think these prices could become a real issue, a national issue once people realize that the price of their phones are going up. Not because of Apple or because of memory uh companies, but because of the rapacious rich hyperscalers who seem insensitive to price, your price, it can easily become one more reason for people to hate data centers. Now, we've already seen how this kind of story plays out, haven't we? When the hyperscalers come into a new town to build a data center, we know that they push up the price of fluids and services, especially electricity.
They're aware of the inflationary pressure they cause. And for the most part, now they have finally started to reimburse towns for their additional costs. I say I'm not saying the exact same thing will happen with the hyperscalers causing phone or PCC infla PC inflation, but I worry that we could end up with two presidential candidates who are populist in nature in 2028 with both parties looking for ways to stick it to the data centers and that can get pretty ugly for all the hyperscalers and for all of tech. On the other hand, that might be the only thing that could possibly put the hyperscalers in their place. Now the only hope I can see in this entire food chain is Intel and its CEO Lip Bhutan. I think he can create a great American foundry business because he has tremendous experience in chip design and manufacturing from his time in Cadence Design Systems which he saved by the way gave you 50 Bagger. Plus he has the smarts and he has the friends, he has the contacts and he's just a good guy.
But even Intel can't get there overnight. So I'm betting this won't be the last cell phone price increase based on skyrocketing price of memory chips.
If anything, it's probably the first of many. And sadly, there's just not much anybody can do about it anytime soon, as it's awfully hard to repeal the laws of supply and demand. All right, I hope you're all doing well today and staying calm in this market. Today was a positive day for much of the market as the peace deal between the US and Iran helped calm market participants inflation fears. Maritime trackers indicate that ships are moving through the straight of Hormuz at a substantially greater rate than they were during the conflict. As I've said repeatedly, it all comes back to the flow of energy through the straight of Hormas. The straight being closed is what caused oil prices to rally, sparked inflation fears sent global yields higher and spurred speculation about a future Fed rate hike. It's also the main reason why this summary of economic projections we got from FOMC participants on Wednesday was so hawkish. They're looking in the rearview mirror and relying on old inflation data that should look very different in the future as long as the straight remains open. During the FOMC press conference, Worsh indicated that they're working to ensure the Federal Reserve has access to more real-time data, which should help them make better informed policy decisions rather than just looking in the rearview mirror and relying on old data in a rapidly changing world. That is a much welcome change at the Federal Reserve, and it is long overdue. All of that to say that the straight of Hormuz being closed is the main reason why we got a hawkish SCP and stock sold off Wednesday afternoon. But now, it appears that ships are starting to move freely through the straight and that is very positive for markets. Today, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission ordered six regional grid operators to justify or overhaul rules for connecting large power users like AI data centers, semiconductor fabrication support systems, and advanced manufacturing facilities with a 60-day response window. Nvidia published a blog post in support of the changes. In that blog post, Nvidia points out that this is not just about allowing large customers to connect to the grid faster. Today, large customers are active participants in funding their own network upgrades to reduce cost pressure on existing rateayers, bringing new energy generation online to increase supply alongside demand and offering flexible load to allow grid operators to manage peaks more efficiently. Nvidia points out that customers that can demonstrate flexibility in response to grid conditions can move through the process on accelerated timelines. As a reminder, Nvidia has published multiple blog posts in the past about power flexible data centers that adjust in response to grid conditions. Nvidia has said that power flexible AI factories can help stabilize the grid and help unlock up to 100 gawatts of capacity across the US power system. Nvidia also published a blog post sharing some ecosystem updates in Europe. Nvidia mentioned that Mistral is building a new 44 megawatt data center in Northern France and Mistral's first deployment is already operational with 18,000 Nvidia GB 200 systems. Nvidia also mentioned that Bull and Foxcon have announced the production of Nvidia Vera Rubin NVL72 systems in Europe. systems will be manufactured and tested at Foxcon's facilities in the Czech Republic before being assembled, integrated, and fully validated at Bull's factory in France. In other news, Bloomberg published a story saying that Amazon is in talks to sell its tranium chips to be used in other companies data centers. The story is framed as Amazon making a push to challenge Nvidia. As I've said many times on this channel, the world is computed and the total addressable market is growing in the double digits percentage annually. The fact that the world is compute constrained means that there's already more than enough demand for multiple chipmakers to succeed. And on top of that, the TAM is growing at a strong clip each year. This is not zero sum.
There's plenty of room for multiple chip makers to succeed. And while custom AS6 can be helpful for specific workloads, Nvidia's platform is flexible and constantly adapting as the software industry changes. You can't do that with custom AS6 in the same way that Nvidia does with their systems. Developers choose the platform they build on. The vast majority of developers want to build on Nvidia's platform. Nvidia has the largest install base and they bring customers to the hyperscalers. And so even as the hyperscalers pursue their own custom chip efforts, they will continue buying Nvidia systems in large quantities because that is the architecture that the majority of their customers demand. This is not zero sum.
There's enough room for multiple chipmakers to succeed. The vast majority of developers want to build on Nvidia's platform. And given that the world is compute constrained, this is not the time for Nvidia investors to be concerned about competitive market share dynamics. As long as the world is computed, there should be demand for all viable compute. If we reach a point in the future where the world is no longer compute constrained, that's when it makes more sense to focus on market share dynamics. We're not there yet, and I don't think we'll get to that point for multiple years. Also, on Thursday, the president posted online talking about Intel and semiconductors. The president said that the administration helped bring in Nvidia and they agreed to build their first level chips with Intel. That's very interesting because back in September when Nvidia announced they would invest $5 billion in Intel and co-develop multiple products, I was wondering if perhaps the administration had convinced Nvidia to work with Intel.
But in a press conference shortly after that announcement was made, Jensen Hong indicated that the partnership was something that had been in the works for many months and that the administration did not make Nvidia and Intel work together. So I don't know what the true story is around that specific detail, but regardless of that, Nvidia and Intel are working closely together. The president also said that Apple had agreed to work with Intel to design and build chips in the US. Speaking of Apple, the Wall Street Journal published a story Wednesday afternoon in which they said Apple CEO Tim Cook told them that Apple plans to raise prices on its products to offset the surging costs of memory and storage chips. It's worth noting that Micron supplies memory to Apple, which is why that stock was notably higher on Thursday. It's interesting because historically, memory was a cyclical business characterized by peaks and valleys. That's because in the past, the business was heavily dependent upon consumer demand, but now the surge in memory demand is coming primarily from the buildout of AI data centers.
And so rather than being fueled by consumer demand, this cycle is unique in that it's being fueled by demand from the hyperscalers leading AI labs, neoclouds, and enterprises. If the growth in AI demand is a multi-year secular trend rather than a typical cycle of the past, then that would mean that companies like Micron still have plenty of runway ahead of them. As a reminder, Micron is currently the only US listed of the big three HBM vendors.
The largest producer of HBM, SKHix, currently trades in South Korea, and they're expected to list on the NASDAQ soon, possibly in August. I expect there to be a lot of demand for a US listing from SKH Heinix. It's interesting because last I checked SKH Heinix trades at an even lower multiple than Micron does, even though SKH is the largest supplier of HBM globally. Like I said, I expect there to be a lot of demand for SKH Heinix US listing. Looking ahead, we have Nvidia's annual meeting of stockholders scheduled for Wednesday, June 24th, starting at 12:00 p.m.
Eastern, 9:00 a.m. Pacific. June 24th is also the day we get Micron earnings after market close. I don't know what's going to happen in the short term, but from a long-term perspective, I am very confident that Nvidia will be worth much more in future years than it is today.
When Jensen was on the Lex Freedman podcast not that long ago, he was very seriously raising the possibility of Nvidia becoming a $3 trillion revenue company in the near future. If that happens in the coming years, then it is very plausible that Nvidia could one day be worth tens of trillions of dollars in market cap. That might sound crazy, but that's what Jensen is implying when he raises the possibility of Nvidia becoming a $3 trillion revenue company.
I guess the question at that point is what multiple the street will be willing to give Nvidia. I don't know the answer to that question, but I truly do think that Nvidia will be worth much more in future years than it is today based purely on the fundamental growth of the business. Based on everything I'm seeing, the world is still compute constrained and I expect that to continue at least through the first half of calendar 2028. On Nvidia's most recent earnings call, leadership told us that H100 rental prices are up roughly 20% year to date and a 100 rental prices are up nearly 15% year to date. Yes, rental prices for GPUs that launched 6 years ago are still rising because there is simply not enough supply available.
In a computed environment, developers will use whatever viable compute they can get their hands on. Today, there are no GPUs that are sitting dark due to a lack of demand. Like, there was fiber sitting dark due to a lack of demand at the height of the dot bubble. Back then, companies were laying fiber in the hopes that use cases and demand would eventually show up. Today, we are seeing the complete opposite. As I've said many times, when market participants compare this AI revolution to the dotcom bubble, they ignore the fact that the internet is already here this time. This means that mass adoption of the technology and new use case development at scale are immediately possible. We don't have to wait years for it to show up. It's already here. The world is compute constrained, which means there is not enough supply to satisfy demand. New capacity is utilized as soon as it comes online. The hyperscalers are monetizing capacity as soon as it comes online.
Each of the hyperscalers spoke about being supply constrained on their most recent earnings calls. Alphabet CEO specifically said that they are compute constrained and would have higher cloud revenues if they had more supply.
Additionally, many of the clouds are building out into contracted demand.
They're not blindly building in the hopes that demand will eventually show up. No, they're building out because they have signed contracts and in some cases significant prepayments from their paying customers. This AI revolution is fundamentally different from the dotcom bubble and 2026 will be a pivotal year for the AI industry thanks to the rapid adoption of agentic AI and the proliferation of agentic systems in the world's leading enterprises. The leading AI labs revenues are surging right now.
Agentic coding and the implementation of Agentic systems in large enterprises are new use cases that are increasing inference demand significantly that subsequently is increasing compute demand. The rapid adoption of Aenic AI is why we're seeing an inflection in inference demand. It's why we're seeing the leading AI labs revenue surge. I wish both Anthropic and Open AI were public so the public could see the ramp in their revenues. Anthropic ARR has surpassed 47 billion up from $9 billion just at the end of 2025. Open AI is growing rapidly as well. I think the leading labs surging revenues may be the initial proof point that grabs market participants attention and causes them to realize that there will be a clear ROI on AI infrastructure. I think the leading labs surging revenues will also help assure investors of the longevity of Nvidia's growth since these labs revenues are directly tied to compute.
If they had more compute, they would have greater revenues. It really is that simple. Demand is not the problem. The problem is a lack of supply to meet the demand. As I've said previously, I expect the world to be compute constrained at least through the first half of 2028, possibly longer. And so regardless of what happens in the short term, it's important for long-term investors to remain focused on the fundamentals, maintain a long-term perspective, and remember that we are only in the early stages of Agenic systems being adopted at scale. This will increase compute demand significantly. And after that, the next surge in compute demand will likely be fueled by physical AI. We're no longer talking about digital agents performing digital tasks. With physical AI, we're talking about physical AI agents performing physical tasks in the real world. NVIDIA CFO has called physical AI quote a multi- trillion dollar opportunity and the next leg of growth for NVIDIA. This industry will fundamentally transform society and NVIDIA has positioned themselves to benefit massively. NVIDIA sells the hardware for the data centers where the models are trained. They offer omniverse where the models are taught and tested.
And Nvidia also sells the hardware that allows ondevice real-time inference through NVIDIA AGX allowing robots to have intelligent interactions with the real world even when they are not connected to a data center. Notice that Nvidia is taking a holistic platform approach to physical AI and they're embedding themselves as the underlying foundation supporting all of it. Over 2 million developers are already building on the Nvidia robotic stack and this is not getting enough attention. As for production ramps, Blackwell Ultra has ramped quickly and remains in high demand. Reuben is on track to launch in 2026. Then we're expecting Nvidia Gro 3 LPX in the second half of 2026. Later on, we're expecting the launch of Reuben Ultra in 2027 and Fineman after that in 2028. We have a clear data center product roadmap stretching into 2028.
And Jensen believes that AI infrastructure spending will reach three to$4 trillion annually by the end of the decade. That means Jensen is expecting growing AI demand and an expanding total addressable market underpinning all of this. I don't think we are anywhere near any type of bubble bursting type of event. With all of this in mind, I seriously think that Nvidia still has plenty of runway ahead of it and I think this company will be worth substantially more in future years than it is today.
At least that's my view of the situation. Quick note before I wrap up.
All of the compilations on this channel are edited by Finn Vid with original structure and commentary. Occasionally, the same edits appear elsewhere on YouTube. If you're looking for the original version, it's always here on this channel. Thanks for watching Finn Vid. I appreciate your support. Remember to stay calm in this market. Remember to maintain a long-term perspective and do not make any hasty or irrational decisions. With all of that being said, I hope you all have a great rest of the day, and I'm curious to hear your thoughts about Nvidia in the comments below. Please leave a like on this video so more people will see it. And while you're down there, please consider subscribing. It's free and you can always change your mind.
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