BITCOIN: CALM BEFORE THE STORM!!! #BTC Price Prediction & Crypto Crash News Today

本站添加: 2026-05-12

[00:00:00]All right. Has the trap been set for the Bitcoin bulls here? That is the question I'm going to answer in this video today.

[00:00:06]As you guys know, my base case expectation is that we are going to roll over and potentially even make new lower lows below this $60,000 level. So, we're going to start off with the immediate short-term for Bitcoin and then move our way up to the higher time frames so I can share my technical analysis on the current market. So, first of all, we do have an ascending trend line right here with a key level of support being 79.8K.

[00:00:30]If we start breaking below this ascending trend line, that is obviously going to be a huge warning signal for Bitcoin in the short term, especially breaking down below a short-term area of support here, sitting at 79,000. If we end up breaking this, then you might find some short-term support here at 77.8K. But after that, you are already talking about 75,000 in the Bitcoin price as an area of support. And for the short term, this is really what I'm looking at. So, if we get a break above 82.8K, this is a continuation signal for Bitcoin. Because notice how for now, we are basically still just in this uptrend in this bullish market structure. And once again, if we break through this 82.8K 8K level, it would invalidate this bearish warning signal in the form of this bearish divergence because we have higher highs in the Bitcoin price and lower highs in the RSI momentum indicator. As I pointed out, when it actually confirmed right here, usually it points towards us getting a break from all of this bullish price action.

[00:01:29]And typically, it plays out either in the form of some choppy sideways price action or potentially some bearish momentum. However, the point of invalidation is if we get candle closes above the previous high. So this is why when that bearish signal invalidates, it is also a bullish signal in the short term. Another thing, of course, is this red text right here. Let's say that we do end up breaking through 82.8K, guys.

[00:01:52]Then obviously I am moving up this text to this previous low sitting at 79.2K.

[00:01:58]And then that becomes the new point of invalidation where if we end up trading below that, that will actually be a confirmation of the downtrend in the short term. However, for now, the confirmation level is actually sitting at 74.8K. So, that means that currently we are pretty much in no man's land, chopping sideways. And that actually brings me to the daily time frame because notice how we are still trading inside this big area of resistance, sitting from 80,000 all the way up to 82K in the Bitcoin price. If we end up breaking through that 82K level, the next area of resistance above is already sitting from 85 all the way up to 87,000.

[00:02:36]However, in terms of support to the downside, if we get a candle close below this 79.8K level, the next area of support to the downside is already sitting from 78.4 all the way down to 76,000.

[00:02:49]And that actually brings me to what I started this video off with, which is has the trap been set for the Bitcoin bulls? As you guys know who have been following me for at least the last couple weeks, my plan this entire way up is to basically just continue to be bullish so long as we're holding above this ascending trend line. But at some point, I'm expecting this to break down.

[00:03:09]And at that point, I'm going to post a video called the trap has been set with this picture in the thumbnail, which is basically a signal to say, look, I'm expecting downside from this point onward. And I think that we are closer than ever to this actually confirming.

[00:03:23]Now, as you can see from this fractal that I took from the 2022 bare market, we could spend a bit more time maybe grinding sideways a bit, potentially even getting a new higher high, for example, as high as 86,000 in the Bitcoin price. However, once again, the expectation is that we are then going to roll over, at least get close to this previous low at around 60K, but potentially even make a new lower low to eventually find the bare market low for this actual bare market. You can see the same thing here on this weekly time frame where we actually have a confirmed price target to the downside at 52K as well from this bearish flag pattern which is a breakout pattern. In this case, it broke out at 87,000 and ever since that point, we have actually been targeting 52K in the Bitcoin price. Of course, it's not like we have just been bearish on this entire way to the upside from about 60K all the way up to 82 on the lower time frames. We have just been trading this trend to the upside, but the base case has not changed whatsoever. I am still just expecting this to roll over on the higher time frames and eventually potentially even reach this price target at around 52K.

[00:04:33]So hopefully that answered some of you guys' questions. I saw a bunch of this of people asking like, "Hey, where's that image with the trap has been set and stuff?" Because I covered this a bunch of times while we were trading towards the upside. So once again, like I said, closer than ever. And now let's take a quick look at the Bitcoin ETF flow tables. Yesterday we saw a net inflow of about $30 million in a single day of trading. Overall, a pretty neutral inflow here. Nothing too major.

[00:05:00]You can see that some days we're getting half a billion dollars flowing in in a single day. So this is why 30 million is a relatively small inflow. As always, I will continue to track this every single day. Usually I do actually post every single day, but recently I have been a little bit under the weather. So this is why the upload schedule is also a bit choppy recently. But either way, if we take a look at the Bitcoin liquidation heat map, notice how right now we have huge liquidity to the upside. Notice how right now we have big liquidity to the upside around this 82.7K level. But it is also good to note that if you're really going to be looking for liquidity all the way up here, it could make sense to look for some kind of bullish divergence to show up here or see some kind of break of this descending trend. Perhaps even a combination of both of those things.

[00:05:47]Basically, just look for a couple of bullish signals in the short term before you start targeting liquidity up here.

[00:05:52]Until then, currently, we are just in a shortterm downtrend. But of course, that is not financial advice. I'm simply telling you what I'm seeing in the charts and you can do with that information what you like. Here you can see a bit of a warning signal on the two week time frame as well. Right, we have huge liquidity to the downside sitting at 79,000 and even as low as 77K where we have about $300 million worth of long positions that would get liquidated if we reach this level. So this is why if you want to be bullish in the short term here, it actually makes sense to wait for some kind of proper confirmation that this warning signal here is actually invalidated. Until then, what I'm seeing here is we have this short-term warning signal. We're seeing some indecision in the market because we're chopping sideways and we have a bunch of downside liquidity. So it's not like there are no risks whatsoever in this current market. But at the same time, we are technically just holding above this ascending trend line. So once again, so long as we're not breaking this, it's just a matter of which time frame you're looking at. In the immediate short term, there are some warning signals here once again that get invalidated if we create a new high. But on this daily time frame, we're just trending towards the upside with a huge warning signal flashing if we actually break this trend, especially if we do so before making a new high because then we have a bunch of warning signals here in the short term and then on the higher time frame, we're also breaking the trend. So just huge warning signals all around at that point. If you start to see that happen guys, then you can be sure that I will be targeting liquidity down here to be grabbed. So that's why I'm showing you this Bitcoin liquidation heat map every single day. Hopefully all of that is making some sense. Although if you have some questions, feel free to drop them in the comments down below. I read every comment and I try to reply to every single one as well. But regardless if you do end up doing that or not, thank you for watching once again and I will see you tomorrow in the next