Why Bonds Warn You Before Stocks: The Early Crash Signal Wall Street Ignores

本站添加: 2026-05-18

[00:00:32]And 72% of time the market goes up. And the answer came to me.

[00:00:36]And that's where I developed my chart.

[00:00:38]The answer came to me is because just like caterpillar, when they pull their money out, you get out. Whoa. It's your daily dose of how to manage your money.

[00:00:48]And now it's time for Phil's gang on the Off the Wall [music] Street Network.

[00:00:57]With your host, Bill Brandy.

[00:01:03]And welcome to my podcast.

[00:01:05]Well, again, the same stocks are driving the entire market.

[00:01:10]12 stocks for other stocks.

[00:01:16]They are manufacturing the chip machines. And then of course, you got eight companies like you know, Microsoft and the rest of them are buying those machines so they can make chips.

[00:01:29]And it's the same companies. Every day they're driving this market. But what's interesting is we got the numbers today and you know, they're telling us how great the economy's doing, right?

[00:01:43]It's just not true. And what people don't see is coming is that right now if you look at stagflation I mean, that could hit us pretty hard and nobody's even talking about it. So, we got the same 12 stocks driving the market.

[00:02:02]We have inflation is reaccelerating. Nobody wants to talk about that.

[00:02:08]And take the CPI year-over-year about 3.8%.

[00:02:14]PPI 6%. Gasoline up 28% year-over-year.

[00:02:19]Food 3%. Rent 3%. And people go, "Well, wages are better." No, they're not. No.

[00:02:26]It It It There's more people who are working terrible jobs than good-paying jobs. Most of the jobs are part-time jobs. Remember, we just unloaded 100,000 full-time jobs, replaced them with 100,000 part-time jobs, and we just added another 100,000 multiple jobs.

[00:02:48]So, more and more people are working two jobs.

[00:02:51]So, and if play that for play that cut.

[00:02:55]The first cut.

[00:02:58]Yeah.

[00:02:59]We've never had people in a more gambling mood than now, but that doesn't mean that investing is terrible. It It does mean that the prices for an awful lot of things will look very silly. Yeah, and and what we're seeing is the durable goods. When you look at durable goods and they're negative, we're not selling durable goods. You're not selling TVs. You're not selling the large items.

[00:03:24]Because people just can't afford them.

[00:03:26]So, when you see durable goods orders negative, that's really bad. That's really bad. So, again, uh what we're seeing a lot of right now is they'll tell us how great the numbers are, but they don't tell you the truth that what's happening is we are selling less units, but the sales are going up. Not that more people are coming in to buy a bicycle.

[00:03:59]What's basically happening is if you're a store and you sold uh one month 100 bicycles and let's say it was $4,000, the next month you sell uh let's say $5,000 worth of bicycle.

[00:04:14]Think you're doing good, but you look and you sold let's say 100 bicycles less.

[00:04:21]Remember, it's always units. You got to talk about units. But when the government does numbers, they never never talk about units. They don't want you to know about that. They don't want you to know the units.

[00:04:30]So So again, uh when we have our CPI up 3.8% and and PPI, which is your wholesale, 6%.

[00:04:43]Uh and gasoline's the killer. I mean, 28%.

[00:04:47]So, stagflation and most people don't realize what stagflation is and it can be miserable.

[00:04:54]Cuz once you get caught in stagflation, you can't get out of it. Inflation, you can work your way out. Stagflation, you can Last time we got in stagflation, we were stuck for 10 years. You believe that? 10 years we were stuck. So, it's when prices keep on going up while the economy keeps slowing down. And that's what we have right now. Our economy's slowing. And then when you hear uh this uh this uh what the hell's his name? Payne talks about how the economy was sizz- sizzling.

[00:05:22]It's just not true.

[00:05:24]So, the only place we are making money in the stock market right now and been doing well since 2022 is in our again, the same stocks, the same tech stocks. There's 12 of them.

[00:05:39]And that's the only thing And the terrible thing about that is we got a very very very narrow market.

[00:05:46]And that's really dangerous. So, going back to stagflation, now again, when prices keep on going up like they are and and the economy is slowing like it is and that happens when oil goes up.

[00:06:01]And that's what's happening to us right now. Oil is back up over 100 again. And and this war is not going to stop.

[00:06:08]This war is going to get worse before it gets better.

[00:06:11]And so, oil going to jump, inflation stays hot and growth just cools right off and the Fed keeps on they won't cut interest rates. They keep the interest rates high because inflation is high. So, when you have that formula you're going into stagflation.

[00:06:34]And and and the consumer really gets squeezed and companies' profits go down, their earnings go down. But nobody from Wall Street is going to talk about this stuff. They don't want you to know about it. All they do is party every day over the same 12 stocks. 12 out of 5,000 stocks or if you want to be realistic, 12 out of 700 stocks. Unbelievable. So, stagflation you trade what what what benefits from high prices essentially, like energy and commodities and you are you're short what gets you want you want to be short what gets crushed.

[00:07:10]Okay, when growth slows, like like small caps. We're going to just keep you know, shorting the small caps. And right now, we started to short the banks early. And we've been doing good with our banks. We just started to short them a few days ago and I told my members, "Look you know, we got to start shorting these banks cuz these banks are really going to get you know, trashed and especially if we get into stagflation. And we've been doing good so well so far with these banks. You should take a look at them. And and so, again uh we just everything depends on a strong consumer and we don't have a strong consumer.

[00:07:48]Even though they you're playing another cut where they tell us how strong the consumer is.

[00:07:53]This is insane.

[00:07:59]Would you labor markets in much better shape than most people give it credit for?

[00:08:03]>> [laughter] >> Yeah, I'm not going to give any credit.

[00:08:07]Why would I give credit to labor markets? It sucks. I mean, when you get another hundred multiple jobs, 100,000 multiple jobs, are you kidding me? You're doubling your multiple jobs and you're doubling your part-time jobs and your full-time jobs with good pay and good good good benefits are going down by 100,000? Come on. You know, start telling the truth. So, that's one of the problems that we're having right now. And so, I I would just say stagflation, just be aware of it and and you can make good money in a market when there's stagflation uh if you know how to you know, as they say, if you know you know how to sell short, but you got to learn how to sell short to take advantage of it. So, that's what's going on there. And the other thing that is uh that people aren't thinking about is in 1974, okay, in 1974, 1982, 1991, 2001, the economy we used to always rebuild after corrections or crashes.

[00:09:17]And we do it by business investment. We didn't do that in 2008.

[00:09:23]We didn't do that in 2008. So, we're in a real bad spot right now because what we did instead of rebuilding the economy by investing in machinery and equipment and when you do that, yes, where you create a good work base.

[00:09:43]And you get jobs, but no money was put into business investment. They didn't want to do that. And one of the reasons they couldn't do it is because the banks were destroyed pretty much in 2008.

[00:09:56]This is when they started QE.

[00:09:58]And so everybody looked at QE for the next 14 years. Wow, look at it. This is great. This is No. It's going to smack us right into stagflation. It's not great at all. And now we're going to start hitting it.

[00:10:10]And that's the problem is stagflation is going to be a result of that when we had that 2008 crash, guess what? We We just like 74 and 82 and 91. If If If you just go in and and decide, well, we'll just No, we'll do We'll just keep on printing money and we'll keep buying treasuries and we'll keep cutting rates and and we'll just keep on printing and printing and printing and printing. Take that money, buy treasuries, yields go down, and we'll keep pushing up the same dozen stocks. I mean, that that is just absolutely ridiculous. So, now you think about the number of all-time new highs we've had since 2022 to 2026, we've had in the spiders 120.

[00:10:58]We've had in the Nasdaq 100.

[00:11:01]We've had in the XLK, which is tech pure tech, 100.

[00:11:07]I mean, and this is all from the same 12 stocks.

[00:11:11]12 stocks are giving us that. I mean, this is just crazy. So, you got, as I said, you got the same chip machine makers, AMAT, ASML, and LRCX, and KLA-Tencor. And then you got eight, you know what they are, you know, Micron Technology, Nvidia, AMD, you know all Broadcom. So, what you got to do is you got keep buying these stocks and make sure when you're buying them, don't catch them on the new highs. You got to let these stocks pull back.

[00:11:42]So, if a stock went from 80 to 90, don't buy it at 91 the next morning. You want to If it goes from 80 to 90, you want it to pull back to like 85. Then let it go up and break out through that high the day before, then you're going to be safe. But, what people were doing is they buy a stock at 80, it goes to 90, and the next morning the minute market opens at 9:30, bam, they jump right in.

[00:12:06]They jump More people lose money on the on the opening than anywhere else.

[00:12:10]So, these are the same stocks that everybody's buying right now, except institutions. Institutions aren't buying them. And they're speculating, but they're not buying and holding them.

[00:12:20]They're in the bond business. They're They're really buying a lot of bonds cuz they see what's coming. So, So, again, all these AI stocks that's keeping this whole economy alive is all just Earth is just just fake. I mean, think about the leaders. You got Nvidia, Meta, and AMD's up five 550%.

[00:12:42]Then you got the middle group, ABGO, Amazon, uh and Google up 300%.

[00:12:50]That's 12 stocks. This is insane. And then you got this chip uh the machine makers up 200%.

[00:12:59]So, >> [laughter] >> why are you in any other stock?

[00:13:04]So, you got to stay with these same stocks, and then you got to learn how to sell short.

[00:13:10]But, the sad part is that when in 2008, when they got the taste of QE, and they were guaranteed, see what they did?

[00:13:22]In 2008, started really 2009, but under Obama, Bernanke, they said, "Look, let's just every time the market pulls back 4 or 5% guarantee everybody go in and buy and we'll push that market up. We'll do it by buying bonds. So, when the yields go down, you come in and buy cuz it's going to jack this market right up."

[00:13:42]That's what they did for 14 years. If you missed that 14 years, you missed owning your own gold mine.

[00:13:50]Think about it. For 14 years, you could not lose money if you were in those same stocks cuz they were guaranteed.

[00:13:59]Whenever do we have a stock market, for God's sakes, that that would guarantee you on every pullback?

[00:14:07]Now what they're doing is now they're telling you to buy on dips. You can't buy on dips now. What are you nuts?

[00:14:13]There's no QE. Every time a stock market pulled back in the last 14 years, you had a guarantee the the federal government buy treasuries, push yields down, stocks would go up. Now they're telling you to buy on dips and we don't have QE. You're going to get slaughtered.

[00:14:30]Play those other couple clips we had.

[00:14:36]Fundamentals aren't bad. The US economy is doing okay and I don't see excesses in the economy which presage a a a recession.

[00:14:48]I I never heard anything so stupid as that. I mean, what a statement that is.

[00:14:55]I mean, that just makes absolutely no sense what he just said.

[00:15:00]I mean, yeah.

[00:15:04]E- Everybody you know, everybody's going crazy with AI.

[00:15:08]And Wall Street is getting worse and worse. That I mean, growth is coming from earnings? No, it's not.

[00:15:17]No, it's not.

[00:15:18]It It's driven It's not driven by anybody says that this market is doing well because it's driven by earnings, they're totally wrong.

[00:15:28]Cuz earnings growth is too narrow.

[00:15:31]All the earnings are coming from tech, AI linked mega caps, communication services, but market caps are far larger than earning gains. But this guy will say, "Boy, earnings are good. We got good growth." No.

[00:15:47]So, stay with those top stocks, learn how to go long, protect yourself, and then learn how to sell short and you catch them all the way back down.

[00:15:57]And it's going to happen at some point, believe me. In the meantime, I'll see you on the church.

[00:16:05]>> [music] [music] [music] [music] >> Are you nuts?