4 Stocks I'm Buying in May Here's Why

Added: 2026-05-10

[00:00:00]Hey everyone and welcome back to another video for today. So in today's video we have a lot to discuss. We have Marcado, Libra's earnings report, Irene Core, Rocket Lab all reported Thursday after hours amazing evening. Well, sort of good results stocks reaction is a bit mixed. Then we'll talk about stocks still worth buying or putting on your watch list at this month. And so if we look at the market today, we can see a bit of a mixed bag. We have some names that are up substantially today. We have Intel that's up 14, Micron up 13, Qualcomm up 8.4, AMD up 8, CLA is up six, applied materials is up six as well. We look at the NeoClouds here, we see mixed reaction. So Core Reef is down 12.8%. Nebu 3.1. I ran reported yesterday at one point it was up 25. Now it's only up 3.3%. I'll explain exactly why that has happened. And then as for the fintech names, Shift 4 is down 6.3 after being up 9% yesterday. Why is that? Toast reported. So you can already imagine that the market did not like Toast's earnings report. And since Toast and Shift 4 operate in sort of the same segment, which is the restaurant business, although Shift 4 is very much diversified, well, the market is toasting Shift 4. As for the rest, Sel was up quite a lot yesterday. Now it's down five. Pagaya is down four and all of the rest are basically red. So again, Fintech Financials are not getting any love. The only one that is up is a block. So they reported as well. Assume the market liked what they had to say.

[00:01:41]It's quite a turnaround, right? Imagine that. Imagine that. Growing and becoming more efficient. H I wonder who can learn from that. Now, before continuing, if you enjoy these type of videos, you know what to do. Hit all the buttons. Would really appreciate that. If you want to support me even further, do check out the link down in the description and in the pin comment with the top 10 best stocks to buy now or go to full.com/couchinvestor.

[00:02:02]Thank you very much. And of course, special thanks to probably one of my better partners of the channel, fiscal.ai, the platform that you're seeing right here. All of the data, all of the transcript, everything comes from this platform. And some of you might know because you've been using the link, there is now 25% off for the next couple of days instead of 15. So if you're new, hit the link down in the description and in the pin comment. You get to try out Fiscal Pro for free for the first two weeks and then if it's your thing, well, I guess you're getting a much better offer than 90% of the year. So everything that you're going to see here, all the charts is powered by this platform. Now number one that we're going to talk about here is Marcado Libre. Marcado Libre is down another 12.8%. I say another because as you can clearly see over the past 12 months stock has been going down. It's down 32.4%.

[00:02:54]Year to date it's down 17.4. Yes, it's not an AI name. It's not a memory name.

[00:02:59]It's not a cheap name. So it has to be down. But if you're asking me it is one of those great opportunities in the market. Now you're going to say great opportunities. Market cap $82.6 billion.

[00:03:13]Okay. But if you look at the trading PE 43 forward 136.3 H it's a bit expensive.

[00:03:20]Well yes it's always trading at a premium. Why is that? Because Marcado Libé is the only company is the only company that has grown revenue yearover-year above 30% for the past now 29 consecutive quarters. So if we look at revenue, we pull that up and then we have to go back all the way to around I think it's let's see let's do the year-over-year comparisons here. I think maybe even a little bit further than that. So since the March quarter 2019, 7 years, 7 years where each and every quarter they've successfully grown 30% or more. It's the only company and over those past seven years we've had different environments, different environments in the United States, different environments in South America, the markets that they are operating in.

[00:04:17]Now if you look at what has happened over the past couple of quarters, what do you see here? a reaceleration of growth. As if 33.8% wasn't good enough.

[00:04:26]No, they then grew by 39.4, 44.5, and last quarter 49%.

[00:04:33]But but the market punishes companies that invest a lot in the short term. So here again, the margin miss was strategic. Operating income fell 20% year-over-year and margin compressed to 6.9% because management chose to invest, not harvest. This is not the first time that they're doing this and it's probably not going to be the last one either. Brazil commerce is inflicting FX neutral Brazil GMV grew 38% year-over-year. Items sold grew 56% and unit shipping cost fell 17% in local currency. As for the fintech side of things, credit portfolio grew 87% to 14.6 billion. Credit cards are scaling fast, but they dilute near-term spreads and require upfront provision. Again, this is something that they've talked about for quite a while. And so, this is what we're looking at for this quarter.

[00:05:28]Revenue up 49%, GMV up 42%, TPV up 50%, okay, margin hit here. So, that's down 600 basis points. Net income margin 4.7%.

[00:05:40]Net income down 16% year-over-year.

[00:05:42]Fintech monthly active users 83 million up 29% year-over-year. Unique buyers 84 million up 25% year-over-year with Brazil buyer growth at a 5-year high. Of course, when you start offering free shipping, this is what you want to see.

[00:05:58]You don't want to see a scenario where this company says, you know what, now we're going to offer free shipping.

[00:06:03]which means you are taking a hit and then you're not seeing the increase in certain KPIs when in this case we are seeing that their plan is working and actually exceeding expectations. So okay here the title says it this was a classic better growth worse margin quarter and I think this is going to continue to be the story around Marcado Libre the market really is allergic to companies great companies with excellent track records that decide to invest because that's the best thing that they have to do or they could do right now in order to make sure that the business in the future is going to be a better one market just doesn't like it whether it's marcado Libé, whether it's Meta or another company out there. But okay, for us long-term investors, I do think I do think that this is an opportunity. Now, Q2 things to watch. So, the seller promo starts to hit P&L in Q2. Marcado Libé lower take rates in specific categories and price bands conditional on sellers maintaining competitive prices.

[00:07:09]Management explicitly said the changes were implemented late in Q1. So the impact largely flows through in Q2. As for competition, the Amazon pressure is real, but Melie says its metrics are still strengthening. Brazil conversion rose by one point year-over-year, while frequency, multicategory shopping, retention, and NPS all improved.

[00:07:32]Competition is growing the pie. And Mellie is taking a bigger slice.

[00:07:36]Remember, all of these competitors have been in those markets for around 10 years already. But yeah, Melly just keeps showing time and time again why it is bestin-class and I am still expecting them to remain best-in-class for many many years to come as they grow their own ecosystem as they grow in that quite large continent. Now regarding credit they said that twothirds of provision-driven margin compression is mechanical. The credit book grew 87% much faster than total revenue. So many books more expected losses up front.

[00:08:14]What did management say with regards to Brazil? Extended average personal loan tenor from 5 months to 8 months. Now you might say this is bad, but if you compare it to even new or ital or or some others out there, it is still very very short. And so Marcado Libra to me it's quite easy. It's a great company getting punished because well right now it's quite clear the market just hates everything that's not AI AI infrastructure maybe semiconductor related or memory right every other company doesn't matter if they're very very good very very profitable the market just doesn't care even software names right we've been talking about SAS apocalypse for quite a while but the software names close to each and every one of them have reported beats this quarter beats and a lot of raises as well. So when is the market going to realize that h maybe the fears are overblown? Maybe these companies are trading at quite attractive prices.

[00:09:14]Maybe it's not worth chasing all of the rest or maybe there might just not be enough liquidity in the market cuz everything just flows from one direction to the other. Could be. But to me, Marcado Libé definitely here on the list. The other ones are quite easy. As long as Meta stays around $600, to me is an easy ad. It's the same story here.

[00:09:37]Yet again, the market doesn't like the investments, the heavy capex cycle.

[00:09:41]Okay, fine. But Meta is already showing today the positive results of all of those investments. They're already showing that their core business is becoming better and better, and yet market just doesn't seem to care. Well, I care, which is why I'm putting this on the list yet again. And I've been buying relentlessly more meta. Yes, despite its size, just like last year with Google was also a pretty big company at $150.

[00:10:08]Well, guess what? We're closing in at $400 a year later. Quite something. The other one also a hated name. It's SoFi.

[00:10:17]SoFi, Fintech, SoFi, Robin Hood, you name it. The Local is definitely on the list here as well. The Local Reports, I think, next week. So, we're going to have to wait and see what the results are going to be. But I'm still expecting, yes, take rate to come down a bit, but TPV to grow much faster than the slowdown in take rate has been the case for the past couple of months and it makes sense. But yes, a lot of these names, as we've talked about it yesterday, a lot of the names that we do own, we do follow that have not gone up this year are trading at very good prices. Now, you might say, "Yeah, but is it worth buying those names right now?" Cuz they're definitely they don't have any momentum. And I'm like, "Yeah, you're right. They don't have any momentum right now." And so, yes, when you are investing in these names today, it might very well be that these names will remain flat for the next couple of months. And if that's fine with you, great, good opportunity. If you don't like it, if you buy today and then a month from now like this thing didn't move, then okay then then then don't buy it. But me, just like many of you, I'm thinking long term. I'm thinking okay, market right now might not like it, but I rather pick up these names at these prices than wait until okay, suddenly the market loves them. These names have gone up substantially. Everybody is fomoing in and okay, now I have to pay up for exactly the same company. To me, I think long-term meta. Is Meta undervalued today? In my opinion, yes. A trading P of 22.2 times. Ford won about the same. Yes, price to free cash flow.

[00:11:53]Again, that's the problem right now. But it's still an insanely profitable business. Yes, they are investing quite a lot. Yes, free cash flow for the year could be could be negative for them, but still this is a company that is very profitable. The moment capex the capex cycle slows down it's it's they are still going to spend but they're not going to increase the spend as much as they did over the past 2 3 years or so.

[00:12:20]The moment that happens you're going to see suddenly a quick flip and we've seen that before. We've seen that two three years ago. If we go back here and we look at the capex of before and we look at the free cash flow of the company as well. So look at the quarterly, we look at capex and then we'll pull here the free cash flow number as well and you will see that it happened before. So if we stretch it out to when you know when meta went down substantially look free cash flow goes down almost negative and then poof a flip of a switch and it goes back up. Right now it's not negative or close to it. But if we look at what the market is expecting over the next actually over the next year or so you can see the following thing negative free cash flow quarters three consecutive ones actually and then basically a year from now it start to be positive yet again. Now what happens if this doesn't happen? What happens if the next quarter they still generate free cash flow? then the analyst assumptions were wrong and yeah I do think that the flipping here is going to happen quite quickly. Moving on to one of my biggest winners, one of my favorite companies and yes it's a company that I don't really talk about that much because well I just let them do what they have to do and that's Rocket Lab. Rocket Lab reported yesterday stock is up 26.5% today close to $100 per share. It's a $57.5 billion company. It's yes, it is very expensive. But why is the market paying such a premium for this company?

[00:14:05]It's very simple. It has nothing to do with the numbers that we're seeing right now. Although this quarter was a good quarter. Revenue up 63.5% $200.3 million above the high end of guidance. Margins 38.2%.

[00:14:20]Backlog $2.2 billion. That's up 20.2% 2% quarter over a quarter and 108% year-over-year. Liquidity over $2 billion. Now, these numbers right here, what are those? Well, 31. 31 Electron and Haste missions were booked in Q1, the highest quarterly launch bookings in company history. Five. What number is that? Well, dedicated neutron launches signed in the largest contract in Rocket Lab history, plus three electron flights through 2029. and then eight successful launches year to date, keeping Rocket Lab on track to beat last year's 21 launch records. So, you're not paying the premium for Rocket Lab today. You're paying the premium for Rocket Lab a year, 2 years, 5 years, 10 years from now because the trajectory of this company, yes, okay, cliche, but it is a rocket. Okay, it is a rocket that goes to the moon. They've had of course also big announcement and they booked three dedicated haste laouches with the first mission no earlier than November 2026.

[00:15:30]They were selected with Rathon to demonstrate advanced capabilities for the space-based interceptor program part of the Golden Dome project acquisition.

[00:15:39]Another one motive. It adds robotics, motion control, and spacecraft mechanism used on NASA's Perseverance rover and lunar programs. and the acquisition of Mineric has been closed. Rocket Labs since the start of the coverage here has been a company that yeah, it wanted to be that one-stop shop for all your space needs. And it really seems like that's the direction that we're going in and that's why you're paying the premium.

[00:16:06]Now, I already own a position in Rocket Lab. Am I going to chase it right now at $100 per share? No. Like I said before, I regret not paying attention to it when it fell back to around $50, $60 or so.

[00:16:20]Really, not that long ago. But this again is a quarter where, by the way, Neutron is still on track for Q4, I believe. But this is again a company that continues to execute time and time again. It is not very easy to be a rocket lab. It's definitely not easy to be a SpaceX either or a Blue Origin. But if you can become successful in this industry then yeah $55 billion in market cap is going to look very very small in the future especially okay we cannot compare it to SpaceX but if you want to say SpaceX is going public above a trillion dollars or so well above a trillion dollars of course now it has SpaceX XAI and things like that generating a hell of a lot more revenue but you can start comparing you can start to see okay couple of years down the line space systems, launches, all of that together for Rocket Lab. Yeah, maybe this will become a multiple hundred billion dollar company further down the line. And that to me has always been the vision. When we looked at Rocket Lab when it was what, $5 billion, $4 billion in market cap, a bit less maybe, we said this is a company that could be a hundred billion dollar company in the future. And we're halfway there. We're halfway there. Yes. What did it take? couple of years. It's not bad. And I don't think we're anywhere near the end. Remember, this is Rocket Lab even without any neutron launch right now. So, of course, that's baked into the price, but that opens up many, many doors.

[00:17:56]Moving on to Cororeweave. And here things look good, but not great at the same time. I'm not even talking about the fact that the stock is down 12% today because the stock is up 42.6% 6% year to date and has doubled since it went public I think last year or so.

[00:18:13]This is a $61 billion company. Of course, not profitable just yet. It's a $61 billion company that had generated $6.2 billion in revenue over the past 12 months, but revenue is expected to double, more than double. And so, what exactly has gone on here? Well, for the quarter, over $2 billion in revenue, up 112% year-over-year, up 32% quarter-over-arter.

[00:18:37]No problem. Adjusted EITA margin here, 56%, that's down from 62% same time last year. You can start to understand the issues. Adjusted operating income only 1% margin versus 17% a year ago. You understand? right now. It's not about, okay, this is a company that grows revenue triple digits year-over-year.

[00:19:00]That's not the problem. Also not the problem that they have a revenue backlog of close to hundred billion dollars.

[00:19:07]They expect to recognize 36% of the backlog over the next 24 months, 2 years, and 75% the next four years. They talked about again the meta $21 billion commitment, the multi-year deployment deal with Antropic, $10 billion backlog vertical, Jane Street added $6 billion in Q1, HRT named as a new customer, and they've got here 10 customers over a billion dollars. They say nine of 10 leading AI players outside China rely on Cororeweave. It's not a problem about revenue. It's a problem of the market not believing that this could be a good business. The market is saying right now, you know what, great backlog, great revenue growth, no problem. We're hearing, we're seeing that the pricing here, up pricing across GPU generations, A100s, H100s, H200s, the L series, no problem there. Sold out near-term fleet capacity, no issues. The issue is this is the margin. Now the margin they told us the following thing. Look right now we are growing very fast but we're also building very very fast which means we are taking a hit in the short term. And so they explained the four steps. One they received the power shell. Two one to two months fit out so no revenue so new deployments run at negative contribution margin. Month three, revenue begins and management says contribution margin normalizes to mid20s as install base grows. The drag from each incremental deployment should shrink which okay when you think about it it makes sense all in all compared to their backlog compared to the max active power that they want to have it's quite small today. So moving forward moving forward what did they say? They said that margins should start to improve slowly but surely Q2, Q3, Q4.

[00:21:04]If that happens, great. Because as you can see right here, capex for the year, the low end was raised was $30 billion.

[00:21:11]Now it's 31 to35. No problem. Q2 interest $650 to $730 million purely interest payments. So, okay, if we do start to see margins improve while they can continue to grow 100% year-over-year or close to it, then I do think that the narrative around this name is going to flip quite quickly because again, look at this number right here. This is not an imaginary number. This is not, oh, we have whatever land and energy and and contracted power. No, this is $9.4 $4 billion revenue backlog, which means if they can grow faster and build these giant buildings faster, which people forget that it's not you snap your fingers and suddenly GPUs come falling from the skies and huge buildings pop up like in Sims. No, it's going to take time to build it. But if they can build it and show that look margins wise we're fine then yes I do think that this company with a backlog close to hundred billion dollars is going to be worth more than what it's worth today. Moving on to the other name. Now the other name was up 25% yesterday. Now it's only up 4.3%. Why was it up 25%? Well before they actually reported their quarterly figures before the report was actually released.

[00:22:34]Well, what was released was an Nvidia sort of partnership. So, that went up and then when the report was released and you actually looked at it, you can understand why it basically lost almost all of the afterhour gains. Now, IN still it's up 760% over the past 12 months. Year to date, still up 38 close to 39%. It's a $21 billion company. But if we look at the current quarter, it is not a great quarter. Okay, revenue is down fine because they are making the switch from the Bitcoin mining business to the AI cloud business. Now the AI cloud business is still very very small. I think it was $33 million or so, which is a nice increase, big increase quarter over quarter. But what happened and why is it up? It's because of the Nvidia contract. So that's around $700 million.

[00:23:29]The call said about $700 million of ARR is associated with the $3.4 billion 5-year Nvidia AI cloud contract. Now, that's not all. They still reiterated the $3.7 billion exit rate for 2026, which seems quite strange because remember remember what they told us a couple of months ago. A couple of months ago, this was November 6, 2025. They told us the following thing, right? They told us to expect AI cloud ARR of over $500 million by the end of Q1 2026.

[00:24:04]Well, it's safe to say that they aren't even close to that number and we are past Q1 2026. Now, that's why it was always important to start to read the small number three here because we talked about this before. The number three here means this. It represents potential ARR from approximately 23,000 GPU deployments at British Columbia sites. These are based on internal company assumptions regarding GPU models, utilization and pricing. It is not fully contracted. There can be no assurance that it will be achieved and actual revenue may differ materially.

[00:24:44]Assumes on-time delivery and commissioning of GPUs. So clearly clearly that never happened. Now, if that didn't happen on time, what's to say that they can reach their targets for the ARR ending 2026? That's the biggest issue that I have here with this name is that, okay, you've got all of these things right here. You've got 5 gawatt secured power, $3.1 billion ARR under contract. Fine, but you're not on time with your deadlines. you're quite far from it at the moment because that $500 million number just doesn't exist.

[00:25:22]Then regarding that Nvidia uh deal, it's a big win for Nvidia or not a big win.

[00:25:29]It's a win-win for Nvidia. It's not a real sign of confidence Nvidia and I maybe a small one, but it's not like the one with Core Wee or Nebus cuz here what Nvidia actually does is the following.

[00:25:43]Nvidia received a 5-year right to purchase up to 30 million iron ordinary shares. The strike price is fixed at $70 per share subject to conditions and approvals. This means that if Iran in the future reaches, I don't know, $150 per share or something like that, right?

[00:26:05]Because, okay, it's successful with the buildout and they've deployed 600,000 GPUs. It's part of the agreement here.

[00:26:13]If they did that, then of course I will be worth way more than $70. And yet Nvidia will be able to buy shares at $70 while you are looking at $150, maybe $200 per share. But Nvidia gets them at $70. So why wouldn't they take this deal? It just makes a lot of sense. So while on paper this all looks great.

[00:26:36]You've got now Nvidia and I ran, but it's not the same as the others. Not even close. Plus, you still have the issues that I ran today. AI cloud business is really not where it was supposed to be. And I know what some will say, oh, you're just saying this because you now only own Cororeweave and Nebus. I used to own IN. But if you go back to my IN coverage, I talked about the hurdles. I talked about these little numbers that you had to read every single time because the big numbers were great. $500 million AR Q1 ending, right?

[00:27:11]Cool. Great. $3.6 billion, great. But every time you had to go and read the disclaimers, and the disclaimers made absolutely no sense time and time again.

[00:27:21]Then why did I sell my shares? Well, cuz I was overexposed to the sector. Nebus turned out to be an extremely good investment. My opinion still is. And even Core Reef, I still own Core Reef, but I'm starting to think, do I need it?

[00:27:37]Maybe, maybe I want to buy more Meta.

[00:27:39]Maybe I want to buy more SoFi. Maybe I want to buy more Netflix or or any other company out there. Or maybe I want to buy the following company, Shopify. So yes, while I might sound now very bearish or skeptical, I ran. No, if they deliver on time, they should be fine. It also rhymes. But if they don't, which currently clearly they didn't, then yes, I I don't think the hype and all of the attention that everybody brings around that name is warranted, especially not when we can go and look at the other names that are delivering the goods. But hey, you do you. And if you own Iron, I surely hope it does go to $200. It deploys 600,000 GPUs and Nvidia buys it at $70 per share. Now, here we have a company that yes, it's not like the other software names. Shopify still up 18 point close to 19% over the past 12 months and year to date, it's now down close to 29%. Shopify by no means is a cheap company. There will be a DCF available in the Google Drive. Right now, still not ready, but it will be available pretty soon for free to all of you. Market cap $143.5 billion. Trillion PE 107.5 times forward one 66.6 times. This is a very very scary scary scary number here. But Shopify is this a company that is going to get disrupted by AI or is this a company that will benefit from it? In my opinion, it will benefit from it. This is a company that is led by worldclass operators. This is a company that is growing that has multiple tailwinds.

[00:29:20]Revenue increased 34% year-over-year.

[00:29:22]GMV up 35%, free cash flow margin of 15%. Gross profit up 32% year-over-year, operating income 382 million, MRR monthly recurring revenue $212 million, up 16% year-over-year. And OPEX ratio 37% that's down four percentage points year-over-year.

[00:29:43]Who were the standout segments? Merchant solutions up 39% year-over-year.

[00:29:48]Subscription solutions revenue up 21%.

[00:29:51]Subscription gross margin flat. Merchant solution gross margins flat here as well. Now, Shopify payments. Yeah, it's it's not just oh, a website where you can sell things. No, they are very well integrated. Shopify payment GPV up 41% year-over-year, $67 billion. Shop GPV $35 billion, 59% yearover-year growth.

[00:30:15]Like I said, I think AI here is a pure tailwind for the company. They have seen 4x weekly active Sidekick shops. 12,000 custom apps were created in Q1. Around 50% of Shopify flows built with a Sidekick. Sidekick is the AI assistant that helps you run your business.

[00:30:34]Shopify wants to create demand, not just convert it. So they've seen an 8x increase in AIdriven traffic to Shopify stores, 13x increase orders from AI powered searches, 2x increase conversion from catalog powered AI search, and 3x merchant with live shop campaign.

[00:30:51]Remember, if you are someone that wants to start a business, want to put that business online or your business already exists, but now in this AI world where it's not just SEO, it's GEO as well, you would like to open up that business or maybe transfer your existing one to the company that will do everything for you, that will make sure that you're not left behind, that you will make sure that yes, now in this AWAI, you are part of this increase right here. you are part of these results. You don't want to be using a product where I'm still only busy with SEO. If someone searches for things that I sell on chat GPT, on Gemini, etc., etc., I'm not visible. I want to be visible and I want to make sure that my products are shoppable in those chat interfaces. Now, Shopify to me is one of those companies where, okay, I have to decide. Am I willing to pay the premium and and be happy with owning the company or am I going to wait and see if we get a correction here?

[00:31:57]That that's the big conundrum here and that's why it's put on the watch list at the moment because one, great product, great company, excellent track record, great management and so yeah, the price has to be correct. It might be close to correct, especially if you look at the bullish scenario, which again will be available in the DCF, but as I've been saying over the past couple of days, it might be time to start looking at companies where, you know, those are companies that are very well-run.

[00:32:27]They're in very good hands, and you're not going to lose any sleep about, oh, the market doesn't appreciate this company or that company. No. Unless, of course, you don't mind thinking about your portfolio on a daily basis. Do I need to sell it? Do I need to keep it?

[00:32:40]Has it gone up too fast? What's happening? Where's the momentum? It's up to you. But but there's definitely a big big disconnect right now in the market.

[00:32:49]Great companies that get left behind because the narrative isn't there because the momentum isn't there. Okay, I do see this as a good opportunity. You let me know down in the comment section below which other companies are great opportunities right now in the market.

[00:33:04]Check out fisc.ai for 25% off. See you all in the next one. Bye-bye. Hey, hey, hey.