Lyn Alden Drops a Major Update On Bitcoin! "SERIOUSLY, This Will Test Investors"

Added: 2026-05-12

[00:00:00]the worst of the selling, you know, that the rapid selling, that the liquidations are behind us, uh but there's still not a lot of bullish catalyst at the moment in terms of the macro landscape. And so, I wouldn't rule out, uh obviously, further down, uh you know, movements in the in the price.

[00:00:14]Um but I do think that, you know, based on most ways of kind of valuing Bitcoin or looking at Bitcoin's history, uh we are in kind of a deep value zone here. This is a very important update from Lyn Alden, where she talks about her recent outlook on the current state of the Bitcoin market. If you hold Bitcoin or are thinking about investing right now, you need to pay very close attention to what she is about to say.

[00:00:36]Because this could significantly change how you currently see and understand the market. So, let's take a moment and hear exactly what she has to say.

[00:00:45]>> I'm not necessarily expecting any sort of explosive recovery anytime soon, um but I do think that that any interested people might want to look into the space, cuz I think this is a time to consider start laying laying capital in or to start maybe building up a position or at least studying it to see if it's something you eventually want to want to go into. You know, I I'm pretty optimistic long-term on where we are now, while still cautioning that the next 3 to 6 months, you know, anything can really go when you're in this type of weak economic environment with low liquidity. Anyone who has optional leverage uh that doesn't get rid of it is in some ways using leverage to buy assets. So, for example, you know, I I have uh purposefully I have mortgages attached to properties because if I if if I if I can short fiat currency at 3% for the long term, I figure instead of, you know, selling stocks or selling Bitcoin uh to pay that off, uh I'm kind of indirectly slightly leveraged uh on assets. Uh but for the most part, I let other proxies do it for me. I let, you know, MicroStrategy do that for me rather than myself hold Bitcoin and debt. I'm very high convicted bullish on something, uh I size it so that if I'm right, I materially benefit from it, but if I'm wrong, it's not like a financial kill shot. It's just a major setback. And so with Bitcoin, it is my largest individual asset, uh but it's one of many assets.

[00:02:06]Uh and there's also a difference between someone who, you know, say sticks half their net worth in Bitcoin versus someone who bought some Bitcoin and then because of superior performance, it's become half of their net worth. Um and and they they psychologically treat it somewhat different. So, uh I I you know, I have a lot of Bitcoin exposure, um but it's in that kind of broader mindset of more broadly that I want to own multiple types of high-quality assets, short fiat currency where I can or let other, you know, let let my assets do it for me on their balance sheets. Uh so historically, it has mildly decreased cycle after cycle.

[00:02:44]And I think that's normal. I think that when you go from a one like a, you know, a million-dollar asset to a billion-dollar asset to a trillion-dollar asset, uh it's naturally that the the holding of it gets more diffused, uh and there's kind of less kind of tail optionality uh going on. So, I think that uh over the next 5 10 years, I do expect volatility will decrease. Uh and I do I view it as a good thing uh because it it it as it kind of gets higher toward a total adjustable market, uh we'd expect volatility to decrease. And also part of why people don't use it for payments at scale is that volatility. Um so, you can't really price things in it because of that high volatility. Uh we we still live in a very fiat world. Our our liabilities uh either in debts or in just ongoing obligations, rent, mortgages, uh things like that, our expenses are in are in fiat currencies around the world. Uh so, people can't really price things in Bitcoin. If Bitcoin does get much larger and more liquid and the volatility goes down, that actually opens the possibility where people could price things uh more readily directly in Bitcoin, especially when you're talking about a context where, you know, a continent with 40 currencies, um and it can become more of a standard that that people use. So, I do expect volatility to decrease, and while it the downside is it takes away from the explosive return potential over time.

[00:04:06]I think the upside is outweigh it, but I also think we have much more to go most likely before that volatility gets, you know, to what we consider low like gold. So, I think there's no world where it gets to be a multi-trillion dollar asset and only individuals own it and not other pools of capital. I think that basically once you get this big and liquid, it's inevitable that either corporate entities or or pension funds or even some sovereigns are going to want to own it.

[00:04:33]Basically anything that you're responsible for managing, if you become bullish on Bitcoin, it makes sense for you to add it to your thing. So, that starts at the at the, you know, yourself and your family, and then it trickles into professional life for those managing other types of assets. So, I think it's totally inevitable that if it's going to be successful, it's going to be in all these different types of balance sheets.

[00:04:55]As far as concentration risk, I don't really view that as a problem because it's a proof-of-work network, not a proof-of-stake network, and the concentration is thus far pretty manageable. So, MicroStrategy has 3% of coins roughly speaking.

[00:05:10]You know, potentially the more bigger concern is that a lot of entities use Coinbase as custody. So, I think they have something like 10% of coins, which is not fantastic, but I think not the end of the world. People have to kind of remember that even back in in say 2011 like with Mt. Gox, you know, that at one point they had like a double-digit share of the network. So, there's always been these little pockets of concentration that that spin up, and then either, you know, get diffused or break in some capacity.

[00:05:39]So, I think that the network is sufficiently spread out that that's not really a long-term concern I have, and And view it as inevitable. There there are there are people that say that Bitcoin has in some way failed now because these large entities hold it.

[00:05:52]But it's a permissionless asset. It's there's no way to prevent large pools of capital from owning it. And to the extent that, you know, the the the Bitcoin proponents that think it'll change the world, um part of that good involves going through every balance sheet out there, including increasingly big ones. It even goes back to in 2010 when the late Hal Finney was writing about this, he was he was kind of doing back of the envelope math on saying, you know, Bitcoin has this many transaction throughput, and if this many people want to own it, they're going to have to own it through proxies.

[00:06:24]So, he was kind of analyzing the the concept of Bitcoin banks back then.

[00:06:29]Um so, this has been kind of a known aspect from the beginning. And I think that uh some degree of custody is inevitable, uh and some degree of uh connection between Bitcoin everything else is inevitable, uh again, as long as it's successful. I mean, if it's not successful and it just kind of rolls over, then it doesn't get into balance sheets.

[00:06:45]But as long as it continues to be dominant at what it does, and as long as it continues to be decentralized and secure, I think it will show up on on more and more types of balance sheets.

[00:06:54]It's mostly a a one-directional thing.

[00:06:57]Lyn Alden continues to clearly address that. Since the price of Bitcoin is starting to gain some serious momentum, we should not forget the fact that it could still pull back a little bit, and then regain its strength back up.

[00:07:10]Because at the end of the day, Bitcoin is still young.

[00:07:13]It is still a 17-year-old asset, and it is still volatile.

[00:07:17]We just have to understand and accept that it could be affected by any type of macro decision, whether that comes from the Fed, from governments, from war, or from any global event.

[00:07:29]Anything and everything could impact and affect Bitcoin right now.

[00:07:33]But as time goes by, the market cap will continue to grow even larger, and it will require significantly more capital moving in or moving out to truly affect and move the market.

[00:07:44]The bigger the market cap becomes, the harder and more difficult it is to move it in either direction. So, always keep that important fact in mind.