REAL BULLRUN OR FAKE MOMENTUM NOW?🚨 (Crypto Market Update)

Ajouté : 2026-05-15

[00:00:03]Good afternoon everybody. Welcome back to Cellini's Crypto. Hope you're all doing great and welcome to this new video right here. On the markets, we're going to do a full market update again, a middle of the day market update. The NYO was about an hour and 15 minutes ago. We've had quite significant volume coming in since then. There were no major headlines. There were a lot of headlines coming in, but nothing that I I I I think is really um you know, important enough to really make the the crypto market specifically move, but we'll talk about how the general markets at the moment look.

[00:00:33]Uh we'll talk about the fundamentals for Bitcoin and we'll talk about the possibilities here because you know, for Bitcoin we [snorts] knew this like if you if you watch my Bitcoin video this morning, which I'm not certain how many of you do that and also watch this middle of the day market update.

[00:00:47]Um but the move into the upside we expected, but now the big question is is okay, can we potentially turn this? Like there's quite a lot of momentum with this.

[00:00:55]Right? If you if you look at the volume I mean, if you look at this volume, you'd say okay, it's not that high. Um but generally there's there's quite a lot of speed and velocity with this move. Um so, [snorts] you know, how how high can we get and is there even a possibility that maybe um we can reach our price targets at 83,300 and 84,100 a little [snorts] bit sooner than expected, right? Because as most of you know, I do expect those levels. I just don't think we're going to do that uh today. So, we'll revisit that idea and we'll talk a little bit about altcoins. We'll talk about XRP and Ethereum. Um Ethereum looks a little bit better. XRP is actually trying to break out at the moment.

[00:01:32]Um [snorts] which this morning I still said that I did not think that had a high probability, but at the moment you know, I think it has a real chance.

[00:01:40]Uh that's how quickly things can change.

[00:01:42]So, so that's what we'll talk about. So, let's get right into it.

[00:01:45]Um ultimately, the fundamentals at the moment are still quite similar. I mean, the the financial markets keep grinding higher here.

[00:01:52]Uh which is great to see. I mean, look at this. It's absolutely crazy.

[00:01:56]This reminds me very much of basically what happened in the in in the year before, but this is great. The volatility index also relatively low, and oil prices also not moving much.

[00:02:07]Um there were also some some reports coming from the Middle East um that can be seen as relatively bullish, but um ultimately the the situation is just um is is is stable. It's it's the same for the last couple of days.

[00:02:21]And then the Clarity Act, we're expecting news on this today. Um it's kind of bouncing around between like 70% of the Clarity Act being signed into law and 64%. [snorts] Like ultimately, once we actually see a breakthrough in this, right? So, that's hopefully it's will get signed into law and that that probability becomes very high, that can cause a market reaction.

[00:02:42]Well, obviously, the higher the chance, the better. Um but for now, [snorts] we'll have to see. I mean, a lot is happening behind closed doors, and and we cannot really see that. So, talking about crypto. Now, first of all, Bitcoin at the moment, nice movement to the upside. Right? Um we are at a critical level because the level that we're at right now is a mix between the weekly VWAP, the 7-day rolling VWAP, the the 7-day rolling VWAP is actually not loading anymore, but it's it's somewhere there.

[00:03:10]Um the previous week VWAP, it's it's just a high confluence zone, right? So, then we also have some fair value gaps there. Um what Bitcoin really needs to do at the moment um is is reclaim that, right? So, so that's the big question. Right now, Bitcoin is moving into that. I feel like the the chart is kind of um like the chart might not be loading correctly because of those because of those glitches with the rolling VWAPs, but okay. Um we'll [snorts] roll roll for now. So, we're going to get a move into this level.

[00:03:41]We're either going to reclaim that, right? So, we're I will either going to find resistance here and hold 80,200 as support. That's good news. Then we're going to retest these highs at 81,500, and from there, we'll see again honestly, I think the real probability of breaking out right here and rallying into 83,000 and 84,000 is low. And the key reason why I think that's low is because if you look at other like the the general market fundamentals are quite good, but if you look at some of these other fundamentals for for Bitcoin, we still have a Coinbase Bitcoin discount, although that is decreasing.

[00:04:17]So, who knows? But we also at the same point of time like like you can see right here uh have very positive funding rates, and that has not been a great um cause of bullish momentum in the in in recent history. Like Bitcoin mostly rallied when funding rates were negative. Right? And then on top of that, and we spoke about that this morning. I mean, we we had some significant structure breaks earlier today. So, it's not impossible, right? I mean, Bitcoin can break out, and like I said, there's a lot of velocity behind this move, as you can see right here.

[00:04:46]Um but it's all about, okay, we're breaking above 80,200. We're we're rallying into this high confluence resistance level. Are we going to be able to hold 80,200 after finding resistance there? Uh or are we just going to tap those fair value gaps, tap so those inefficiencies, and break down below that, which would be very bearish, right?

[00:05:05]>> [snorts] >> If we do so do something like this, and we lose 80,200, then we'd most likely revisit the bottoms right here and get a move into the 78,000 afterwards, and that's going to um pull the pull pull pull the markets with it as well, because you can see right now a lot of altcoins [snorts] are relatively strong versus Bitcoin. Like Bitcoin is not outperforming the market right now, but they are very correlated to Bitcoin, and they're only rallying because Bitcoin got a nice local bottom right here and was able to get some bullish momentum. Now, having said that, if if you look like Ethereum at the moment, I would avoid. I mean, this price action is good. It increases the likelihoods that we'll be able to >> [snorts] >> um ultimately find a bottom right here and and rally into the in into the upside of the range, but if you look at ETH/BTC, it's still weak, right? So, Ethereum versus the market is still weak. Weak, why would you trade that?

[00:05:55]What I think is a little bit more interesting is XRP, right? I mean, the key level that XRP needs to break above is 1.46, and at the moment it actually looks like we have a decent chance to break above that.

[00:06:08]Um I would wait for some confirmation.

[00:06:10]Like, confirmation would be a high volume break above 1.46 and preferably also on the lower time frames that will be able to hold that.

[00:06:18]>> [snorts] >> Um because and this is similar with Bitcoin. Like, like a lot of this bullish momentum that we're seeing right now is short closing, right? It's short closing and the funding rates are staying relatively the same.

[00:06:30]That's not the ideal start of a continued rally. So, that's another reason why I would I'd be I'd be fairly careful with this move. I mean, we're leaving a lot of gaps into the downside as well.

[00:06:41]Honestly, I mean, there is a lot of momentum with it, and we're closing a lot of shorts both for for XRP right here. You can see that with the open interest, but also for Bitcoin right here. I mean, you can see that the CVD is absolutely rocketing right here while that while the open interest is going down, right? So, so that means that shorts are being closed.

[00:06:59]But is that really going to be the the the best catalyst for a new move into the upside?

[00:07:06]I'm not certain. I'm not certain. It's not impossible, but I've I've given you the guide rows, right? So, I do expect resistance somewhere here between 81,200 and 80,600. Will we be able to get some sort of a structural break, right? So, will we actually be able to hold 80,200 as support afterwards or not? If we are going to be able to hold a hold a structural break, then we can get some more bullish momentum for Bitcoin but also for XRP. If not, then we'll just reverse this move as quickly as that we got here.

[00:07:34]So, talking about altcoin trade real quick right here. Uh the strongest altcoins you can see right here. So, it's Monero, it's hype, it's Zcash, but all of these, I mean, honestly Now, I'm I'm I'm skeptical. I I have to say that I'm skeptical. Right? Because most of these, I'll I'll take Ondo and Hype for the example.

[00:07:55]Like if [snorts] you look at most of these, they they're they're they've just hit a significant resistance level right here.

[00:08:01]Hype has massive volume, by the way. It must be said, but if you look at Hype right here like there is just say a huge amount of leverage coming in. And we're rallying into key resistance levels here at 43.

[00:08:14]Right? So so I doubt that we're going to be able to break above that. Ondo, same thing. Like we found decent support right here. But we have so much resistance now, and we had such a strong local local top recently. That's again, I think it's a little bit unlikely that we'll be able to break above that unless I've missed some news. Right? If we had some very good news coming out all of a sudden, then I am probably wrong. I'm we're just going to break out and rally here.

[00:08:39]Um but I'm I'm not aware of that that we've had any good news. Not in terms of the Clarity Act, but also not necessarily in in terms of other things.

[00:08:48]Um No, not really. So, I'll keep you updated on that, but that's what I think you need to know going into the rest of the day. So, thank you for watching everybody.

[00:08:58]Uh take care, and bye.