Hold up... is BTC gonna squeeze to $90k before dumping to 60k?

Added: 2026-05-09

[00:00:01]In this video, I want to give you the potential bullish scenario of where the price might actually run up into the $90,000.

[00:00:11]Um so, anywhere from, you know, 90 up to 95,000.

[00:00:15]And how that would still technically be a high time frame bear trend that could still then drop back below 60K. So, hear me out. I'm going to make the case over here. So, we're starting out over here on the central command terminal with my cheat code overlays, basically deviations. And if you haven't seen this before, what it means is based on the price action, um combined with the RSI, if it turns red, it usually means that it is an extreme. We don't want to be longing into red. We want to be closing open longs potentially and maybe even look for shorts. This is the daily chart. You can see this was the top, um the all-time high, over here towards the end of last year. In the same way that the blue is the inverse. Okay?

[00:01:04]You can see if we scroll back here, um what happened, the blue caught the bottoms, right? You can see over here in the previous bear market, um when it was blue like this, and you can see there's quite a distance, um between them. All right?

[00:01:21]So, uh the blue had already started here in July, but um we had kind of like sideways drop over here. And that does make a big difference in price. I mean, you can see over here, we're still at like 23,000, and we dropped all the way to 16,000.

[00:01:36]So, it can definitely still go lower.

[00:01:38]But, as a visual indicator, it is useful. The point of why I'm sharing this is that we have uh discrepancies here, where on the daily chart, we have the following. We have this blue zone over here that started since the $60,000 low, followed by an EMA ribbon flip and the price above the EMA ribbon.

[00:02:02]Now, on the lower [snorts] time frames, when I see this happening on the 15-minute, the 5-minute, the 1-minute, the the 1-hour, when you see blue on the specific indicator, followed by the price flipping the price, it usually means uh higher. And the inverse, when you see red, you can see over here when we got the um EMA flip, the price back below it, we got this big decline over here. Right?

[00:02:27]So, this works on all time frames. I can show you here also, for example, let's head over to the 4-hourly, um because you can see it better over here also, how this works.

[00:02:40]We have blue, we have an EMA ribbon flip, and we had this big move to the upside.

[00:02:46]And on the 4-hourly chart, the the moves are all relevant to the time frame, of course. So, the higher the time frame, the longer it takes for the move to play out and the larger in distance. The the lower you go in time frame, obviously the inverse, right? So, if we're looking on a 15-minute chart, um it plays out much quicker in terms of time. We had the same here. So, we had blue, followed by the EMA ribbon flip, and then we had a move up here. Right?

[00:03:12]And in terms of distance, obviously, um that's relevant to the time frame. So, here it's only um like $3,000 move. But, if this happens on the daily, then the move could be $30,000, right?

[00:03:24]>> [snorts] >> So, that's what I'm trying to show you here. Based on how I know this indicator and how it behaves on the lower time frames, very often, it's it's never a guaranteed thing, but very often we see this, we have the blue, followed by EMA ribbon flip, means extended move to the upside.

[00:03:40]So, when we go back to the daily, over here, um we have that situation here right now. So, we have this blue bottoming process here, and since then we flipped the EMA. So, the invalidation, and you always need an invalidation, is quite simply if we lose here, say about 74,000. If we get back below this ribbon, well, then maybe it's a false signal and it just continues lower. So, we have to assume right now it's moving higher, and until we get back uh below, it can be anywhere, it can also be like 76, 75, 74, but we need to get back below there before we can start considering 60. And for now, as long as this is being supported, we have to potentially watch for a move higher.

[00:04:32]By the way, all of this is free. If you want access to these overlays, to the central command trading terminal, the details are in the description down below. It's 100% free. You can get access with a Blofin account connected here. You can even trade on this like you would on your Blofin with API keys that are connected. All the details are in the description down below. Now, let me switch gears for a bit and let's go to the normal TradingView chart here. This is a weekly chart. We have the 50 simple moving average in blue. And quite simply, the rule that I follow for bear or bull market is the 50 simple moving average.

[00:05:04]You can see um very clearly how that works. I mean, if we're above the 50, we're in an entire bull market.

[00:05:13]The moment we lose it, right? You can see over here, the moment we lose it, well, then we're in the bear market. We crossed it again since the beginning of 2023. Boom, entire bull market. So, right now, we are still below the 50 simple moving average. So, that means we're technically in a bear market. That's why I wrote here so that it's the same level over here. All right? So, in two ways, this would be a bull market confirmation on the weekly chart. Number one, if we get above this 98,000, we would make a higher high, which breaks bearish market structure, and it it that would be bullish based on market structure. And if we reclaim this 98K, we're back above the 50 simple moving average, which is the same as any previous bull market. And in that case, uh we can likely expect a lot higher.

[00:06:07]So, the conditions quite simply are, we could technically move all the way back up and bearish retest the 50 simple moving average and still be in a bear market. Okay? So, what that means is we could run up here to, let's say it comes down like that, we could go up to like 90,000, maybe even 95,000, something like this, and then come all the way back down and still continue lower. And that would be a massive trap here. Um number one, it would really destroy the bears who keep shorting all the way up, who've been shorting since 60K, short, short, short, short, short, short, 80,000, 85,000, and they keep getting wrecked on high leverage, right? So, that would do that.

[00:06:53]Number two, it would probably create maximum FOMO around this bearish retest.

[00:07:00]Everyone thinking the bottom is in, the bear market is over, and we're in a new bull market. Everyone starts to buy in around this $90,000 level, and then they rug it and it drops way below 60,000.

[00:07:13]That is completely still a possibility.

[00:07:17]Um of course, it's also possibility we reclaim the 50 simple moving average, in which case, we would have to flip high time frame bull. And if that is the case and we get multiple months of extended upside, well, then even buying in at 95K is probably still going to be okay, because if we do reclaim this 50 simple moving average, we're probably going uh to double that, like 200K or more, is my guess. So, it's always if then. Nobody knows for sure what is going to happen, but you need to understand how the price action works, the invalidation levels. Um and this might be a possibility. There might be a massive squeeze. So, we have this on the normal chart, where this is still technically possible. But then, so here on the daily chart, we have this what I just showed you, and this might give some validation to the theory that we might actually run up for a bearish retest of that 90,000 before continuing lower. That's completely possible here based on how this works. And again, the nice thing about this, this is why I made these indicators, is that it is completely without emotion. So, whereas I have a more of a bearish bias, that in this case doesn't matter. This this indicator doesn't care, bull or bear. It just shows you based on the data, based on the price action, um it has no skin in the game. It just tells you when it's overbought and it's creating like this bottom, it makes it blue, and and the reverse for the upside. So, the price has flipped the EMA ribbon based without emotion, without bias. This is indicating that as long as we're above, say, the 74,000, we have this potential to squeeze higher and move higher over here. And [snorts] the reason why I'm sharing this with you is that you can understand how this works, that you can look at the stuff yourself, and that it helps you make better trade decisions. Like, you don't need to trade every day. You don't need to trade every single movement, but you need to understand the levels where you have more of an edge or the reason why you can enter into certain things and have more of an edge. So, like, for example, here, um if you are following, for example, this, then we could say, well, we might even want to long this.

[00:09:24]Uh and I'm already long here. Um I made a video about that. I long 77,000, something like that. You could, for example, long here based on this. All right?

[00:09:35]The stop would need to be, I would say, here, the bottom of the ribbon, uh maybe just below the ribbon, and we could potentially target, uh let's say, the 50 simple moving average is about 95,000.

[00:09:47]And you can see, even doing something like this is still uh pretty decent risk reward. Because we know here, based off this, if if the ribbon, and I would say you could even probably like have it a little bit higher, but it's it's probably safe like this. And you know, you're looking at about a 1:3 risk reward here um for a long. Now, the problem is on the lower time frames um you are up against resistance here. So, you do need this wider stop. And as with any trade, you need to make sure that if you do get stopped out, that the loss is manageable and within your own acceptable risk tolerance, right? You're not risking your entire net worth on one single trade on leverage. Like you should never do that, right? But, this is a potential setup here based on on this. And we're going to have to wait and see what uh what this next week is going to bring. The stock market is absolutely insane. It's absolutely euphoric. And of course, this could fail here. If it goes below 74,000, well, then it increases the chances that we're going back below 60. But, as long as we are above here, there might be some momentum. People are still shorting this. The more people that are shorting on leverage and continue to short, well, the more likely it is it continues to squeeze because that's what the market likes to do. It likes to take your money, right? The market makers like to do that. They like to push people off sides. And there's this disbelief, you know, everyone thinks we're going lower, and myself included um for I still think we are high time frame. But, there's very much the room for this to squeeze up to, like I said, 95K, bearish retest of the 50-week simple moving average, and then back down again. And that would really uh catch a lot of people off guard. So, this is how I see the chart. This is based on the data. Hopefully, this helps you understand uh more how I look at the charts and how you could potentially use this to look at charts yourself or maybe come up with a better system how you do it. Either way, um these overlays are completely free at Central Command Terminal. So, uh the details are down below if you want access. You'll also be able to get access to my tutorials how I use these indicators um in more detail and explain exactly how it works, but it's pretty simple. I made them uh visually um that it is like this. Very easy uh red followed by EMA ribbon flip uh is usually breakdown, and blue followed by EMA ribbon uh flip is usually higher. Go test it out for yourself. We spent a lot of time building this. Put a lot of money into building this. It's completely free. And I think it's pretty damn useful. So, thanks for watching.

[00:12:20]Smash the like button. See you in the next video.