Altcoins Are Running Out of Time - What Happens Next!

[00:00:00]Do not panic. It's easier said than done. As we know, altcoins have been bleeding consistently now for many years. But in 136 days, there are four particular events that are occurring on our calendars that are worth not only paying attention to, but I truly do believe are key if we're going to ever see an alt season again. Whether it's a full-blown alt season or whether it's only select coins pumping, this is the time altcoins have to redeem themselves.

[00:00:27]So, in this video, I'm going to give you those four things and most importantly, the time frames in which we can expect a recovery. I'm not just talking about charts. I'm talking about fundamental catalysts that in past cycles would have given altcoins a perfect opportunity to make a recovery. And of course, if you find yourself learning something new from this video, a like down below sincerely goes a long way to ensure that I can keep updating you guys every single day on these type of very important events.

[00:00:51]As we know, there's a four-year cycle happening. Whether you like it or not, currently it's playing out and as we know, there's a bear market every four years. Pretty simple. I've outlined these four red periods here, being that 12-month bear market period. Now, every single one of these bear markets, what we find is that the months of August and September often occur red. 2014, August, September, red. 2018, August, September, red. 2022, August, September, red. And as for 2026, well, obviously that's loading right now and the reason why I've started this video off by saying we're likely going to see August and September red unless something changes is to prepare you as to the fact that within this next 136, give or take, days, it's not going to start off very comfortable. If I pull up the NoBS terminal, this white line right here is the altcoins relative to the 200-day SMA and the orange line is, of course, Bitcoin's price. And where we are right now is an extremely oversold region.

[00:01:47]Most altcoins are down 19% on average compared to their 200-day SMA. If I go back to past cycles, you can see at this level, it's comparable to the COVID crash. It's comparable to these deep recesses here on Bitcoin's price. What does that mean? That simply means altcoins, as of right now, are very undervalued, similar to past cycles and the deep, deep bear markets or major crashes. So, in terms of them falling lower, they definitely can, but it's important to know they have mostly bottomed. A great example of this is the ETH to Bitcoin chart. When this goes up, Ethereum has strength. When it goes down, Bitcoin has strength, kind of like copper and gold. Now, ETH already bottomed along its line, which it has done in prior cycles. It's just got this massive area of downtrend to compete with right now, but breaking through that would make way for a sequence we normally do see that kicks off an alt season. But again, in the next coming months, if this does happen, it usually isn't pretty. What normally happens is the last 12 months of this period is when that kind of alt season happens.

[00:02:42]And if you have a look at the others to Bitcoin charts, so altcoins versus Bitcoin now, it just shows that even better. And kind of going into what I was saying before about it bottoming already, that's it right there.

[00:02:50]Altcoins, for the most part, have already bottomed and they're fighting to break out of this resistance, which is normally carried forward. It's helped with Ethereum breaking out of the chart I showed you earlier on. But like I said, same with Ethereum, these first few months here out of the breakout are likely going to be pretty choppy. What we want to see is even if Bitcoin falls, altcoins, like they have been doing this whole bear market, being already bottomed and putting in higher lows, continue that same path forward. Our first major catalyst on the timeline here is the DTCC tokenization rollout, which is their appchain. So, if you don't already know, the DTCC is launching something called the appchain, which essentially is their tokenization service. The DTCC are the settlement and clearinghouse for the entire US stock market. So, these guys are essentially taking all the stocks and things they normally do handle for essentially everything to do with the US stock market, and they're just allowing tokenized versions to be created. This removes any roundabout way currently uh projects in tokenization uh are doing things. So, they're working essentially with the bank itself. Now, phase one rollout has already commenced in July, which happened a few days ago, but phase two is the big one here. October 2026 is their full service launch. This is a major catalyst. It also lines up, of course, with the fact that everyone thinks the four-year cycle is bottoming in October, right? It's going to give a catalyst, hopefully, for us to pull out of those bearish conditions or at least, in my opinion, give altcoins a reason to continue putting in those higher lows I showed you earlier on. Then, later in 2027, we're likely going to see this expand to different blockchains. So, Stellar XLM and Canton are two of the few altcoins we know of right now that are going to be allowed to host these DTCC tokenized assets. I want you to think about this for a second. Why would the DTCC be moving into the public blockchain space? The keyword they use here is "The Claral app chain enables the utilization of assets issued by any network, whether public or private." The word public here refers to cryptocurrencies. All cryptocurrencies, most of them are public. Private networks refer to networks that these banks and institutions are already using and have been using, likely, even before crypto even existed as an industry. So, why would they have any intention of making things public? It's to use crypto and use crypto infrastructure and allow any businesses to offer that as a service. My case is, for everyone thinking crypto's going to be dead, why would the DTCC and these institutions ever think about partnering with crypto blockchains if this industry was, indeed, dead? The overall tokenization market is growing at a very fast rate.

[00:05:15]You can see here, currently $34 billion.

[00:05:16]It is growing fast, and with the DTCC, it's only going to pick up steam even further. Like I made a point on a video a few days ago, as well, yes, TVL in crypto has dropped from about $170 billion down about $75 billion. That's less than a 50% drop off. In past cycles, we saw over a 70 to 80% drop off in TVL. Let's not forget, as well, stablecoins have not dropped off like they have in the past in bear markets, where we saw massive amounts of outflows, people essentially taking stablecoins, burning them for fiat currency, and running away. Money is still parked in crypto. And I can't help myself but point this out very quickly.

[00:05:51]This up here is USDT's dominance and this is Bitcoin's dominance. You can see in the past 2020 to 2021 into 2022 cycle, we saw that the stablecoin dominance was growing as Bitcoin's chart was also putting in higher highs as well. What that shows me is every single high in Bitcoin's price essentially saw more money flow into stablecoins as the stablecoin strength grew. That in my opinion shows bearish divergence. We saw here in the bear market the initial crash to 18,000 then the subsequent crash to 15,000 put in that high over here on stablecoin dominance, essentially marking the bottom. We saw that same pattern play out again here, Bitcoin's price going up but stablecoins holding the line in the sand here essentially showing strength in the higher highs that Bitcoin was putting in, which of course in retrospect was another signal that the cycle was beginning to fizzle out. But as we move now into the 60K crash in February and the recent one to $58,000, you can see the USDT also now hitting those same regions as it did back over here. In plain terms, what I'm essentially saying here is that the same signs are playing out both in the bull markets and likely towards the lows in the bear market. So I would assume based on this and many other metrics and technical details, we are close to a bottom in the next few months being August, September may see us begin to bottom. Catalysts like the DTCC app chain coming in October again giving us that room to then finish from the oversold bearish conditions moving that into the more bullish bull market conditions. The second thing is that in past cycles like for example 2023, we saw a massive catalyst that allowed us to pull out of those conditions I just mentioned to you into this bullish setup here before the massive next leg up.

[00:07:27]That of course being us seeing the spot Bitcoin ETFs launch in January 2024. But BlackRock actually announced their involvement in this with their own spot BTC ETF over here in 2023 giving us more reason to continue going higher until it actually launched. Also providing liquidity as well. We can't forget that this white line here is the amount of capital in the ETFs of Bitcoin. And I don't think we would have seen Bitcoin's price in orange go as high as what it did without that capital because it hit a high of at $165 billion. I say that because this time around we actually have a catalyst now as well. And it's not just a Bitcoin catalyst anymore.

[00:08:04]It's a catalyst for altcoins. And altcoins didn't perform in the last cycle because one, macro conditions didn't allow is very dependent on altcoins because altcoins need fuel from retail. If retail is struggling, they're not going to buy altcoins. Whereas Bitcoin makes a more of a useful case for stressed capital being the digital gold. And it wasn't just that of course as well.

[00:08:22]Bitcoin had the ETFs. ETFs made easy inflows into buying the asset from the traditional market. This time around we have a catalyst for altcoins. The catalyst this time being the Clarity Act. And this definitely has a disproportionate benefit to altcoins than it does for Bitcoin. So, as it stands right now, no one knows when the Clarity Act is actually going to pass.

[00:08:40]We've got Polymarket now saying about 20 to 40% of this passing before 2026 because we've got guys like JP Morgan here, Jamie Dimon, saying that they're going to fight it. And if we lose, we lose. So, they're fighting it to the very, very end. Also, Elizabeth Warren here wants to include an ethics clause that prevents government officials and their immediate families from profiting.

[00:08:58]So, we have some blockers which may push this out beyond the timeline that people are hoping for, which is roughly August of this year before we see the Senate go to recess. And ultimately that means it's going to end up being some time in like mid-2027. But you see, most people will tell you that's a really bad thing.

[00:09:13]But I look at this as a good thing because just like we saw with the Bitcoin spot ETFs, this gives us something to cling onto, a carrot on the end of the stick once we eventually bottom and then start moving higher.

[00:09:24]Especially if we see altcoins continue gaining strength. In my opinion, I don't think there's any single catalyst today that would send Bitcoin and altcoins much, much higher. Macro conditions, which is one of my points later on, need to confirm that we are actually seeing an easing, rates coming down, and with that catalyst paired with the Clarity Act kind of being that carrot in mid-2027, that could tie in really, really well with bringing liquidity back in. You see, everyone knows the Clarity Act, but do you actually understand why this benefits altcoins? Well, if it's signed into law, it's going to help altcoins because US exchanges can now list altcoins without any legal risk, more liquidity, banks and institutions can custody it, altcoin ETFs now can be created, and token issuers can propagate. But, what most people are missing is the fact that when this comes in, it's going to allow us to determine whether a coin is SEC-governed or CFTC-governed, aka is it a security or is it a commodity? If it's a commodity, that means that that project can easily have ETFs created, that's obviously more capital, and exchanges can list it versus an SEC, there's so many more loopholes. Now, determining whether it's one or the other is key. Because you see, an SEC coin will ultimately mean it's centralized, and that could mean that there's a disproportionate amount of tokens given to VCs, so venture capitalists, and also the team, right?

[00:10:36]So, it's a centralized bad coin versus a CFTC-governed coin or a decentralized coin, which likely means it was either fairly launched or it has all of its tokens in circulation, there's no one controlling it. These are the coins that we want to be buying, and these are the coins we want to see go. That is what this will enable, and ultimately, we're going to see more coins die off. In 2025 alone, mind you, because of just the bear market alone, not even this regulation, we saw about 50 to 60% of all the coins created in 2025 die off. A good example already is the CFTC and SEC work together on a joint task force recently to help determine whether a coin is a commodity or a security. Very, very basic, the Clarity Act is going to put this into law, but most of the coins mentioned here, apart from I believe Bitcoin Cash and Cardano, already have US ETFs listed. It's because the CFTC and SEC has basically already said these coins meet that criteria. Like I said, many things will come from this. One of the most obvious ones is what we had as a catalyst for Bitcoin going up while altcoins did not in the last cycle being all of this capital flowing into the ETFs. Not just that, but the DATs as well. DAT inflows will increase. More DATs will want to be created for all coins like we're already seeing right now with massive names like SBI Holdings with Solana. I'm going to repeat myself, I know, "Oh my god, stop repeating yourself." But it's so important to tell you this. Just because these doors are open and they're there, doesn't mean that anyone's going to walk through them. What I mean is that just because these options are available to buy these all coins, people don't have to actually buy them, okay? And that's all dependent on the macro market conditions, which is why it's an important point to make in a minute. Copper and gold and Bitcoin dominance give us another sign here. A third thing that gives me confidence we'll likely see a turnaround coming soon and give all coins a chance to make a comeback. Whether they take it or not is a whole different story. So, you can see copper and gold here has this nice trend line that's been forming now where every single time it bounces off this mark. Now, this is important because every time it bounces off this mark, it has a very strong reaction. This time is no different, but usually we see some resistance around this trend line that it formed in the bear market, okay? So, I'm likely going to expect some weakness coming through here, which is actually quite normal, but it's important to note that in the green period after after we actually break out from the sort of disturbing time we see at this trend line, that is what causes Bitcoin's dominance to actually fall, making way for all coins. That sequence is playing out like pitch perfect right now. You can see from the touch point over here in 2016, it was 243 days before we saw Bitcoin dominance fall. Back over here, 275 days, so only about 30 days difference. So, if we move 275 days from the first touch of this trend line this time around, that takes us to, well, you guessed it, October. Now, if I just walk forward the date, so if I go, you know, plus 30 days and I add an extra 30 days on just to be safe, that takes us roughly to December as well. So, October to December, what we'd like to see is probably Bitcoin dominance begin to climb and then hopefully start to fall.

[00:13:13]I don't know the rate in which it's going to fall. It could be a lot slower fall, kind of like what happened over here on the way up. But I want to take you now to Bitcoin's dominance itself.

[00:13:20]You can see here back in 2014 to when it started to fall off, it was 497 days. It was actually from high to high, so this initial high fell off, altcoins gaining a bit of strength, and then it came up again for one final touch before eventually falling. If I zoom out and show you the last cycle, that same pattern played out. We had that run up in the bear market, Bitcoin gained strength over altcoins, altcoins started getting strength over Bitcoin, but importantly, altcoins didn't really do that well in this time. Just like what's happening right now, altcoins begin gaining strength after they bottom, but Bitcoin still has the lead. It's just kind of this weird rotation that happens towards the bear market bottom. Into the next bull market. Move forward 483 days, so very similar to the 497 days we saw before, that's when Bitcoin's dominance actually fell off. That same pattern again is playing out, so we see that push over here to the high, and altcoins have gotten strength, just like before, they kind of sit in this weird range, happened over here, and then 490 days out from that initial high would take us to around about October to November 2026, which is about 105 days away. I kind of see this pattern possibly playing out. If the last two cycles will again appear this time around, doesn't mean obviously it has to, and then we'll eventually see a slow bleed. Now, I've got Bitcoin's dominance down here. I just want to show you these gray areas on this chart again this time around.

[00:14:32]So, these gray areas show you that we actually are still in a bear market condition going into a bull market through that whole period. So, 2019 to 2020, this of course happened again, and this is happening yet again now, and it actually started in 2025. So, we don't just have baits from different angles, but we also have catalysts that could help send us higher. All of this is me looking in the past and kind of trying to determine what may play in the future, but I obviously have to admit, as much as I would like to be, I'm not a genie. I don't know what's going to happen for sure. Anything may, and I'm going to make the point third and the last time I promise, it's going to depend on macro market conditions. If you have a look at the macro market actually, things are all going up right now, so those same signs are playing out. US business cycle, copper to gold's going up, even things like small cap stocks, the Russell and green here are going up. Bitcoin's going down. I think the reason why Bitcoin's gone down, by the way, is because we had the liquidation event happen on the 10th of the 10th which lined up with the 4-year cycle. Everyone thought the prophecy was playing out again which it technically did. So, long-term holders sold, everyone sold, ETF holders sold, everyone panicked. We had an 8x increase through the bear market for Bitcoin.

[00:15:37]That's obviously going to mean people going to unwind their profits. So, these things all combined contributed to the fact that why we are going down right now. Plain and simply, that is the reason we are falling. That is why I say I think that these reasons, if they continue going up with obviously the cushion of inflation, will assist crypto bottoming here soon and altcoins hopefully playing out a similar sequence to an alt season. But, we did get some results for CPI PPI. So, CPI came in really really nice. It dropped off here and if we continue on this trend, things are looking great. PPI came in cooler than expected, but it still went up. And then we have PCE in red here still coming out. That's the main lever that we need to see here drop cuz that's what the Fed is looking at first and foremost to even consider cutting rates. Now, this is happening on the 30th and we also do have on the 28th, I believe, the next FOMC meeting as well. So, two big dates and these two dates will determine what the dollar does next. Hopefully, it continues trending down and the US 2-year bond yield continues trending down as well. When these go up, it's obviously not a very good thing at all for risk-on markets. People are pricing in uncertainty, pricing in uh you know, risk. But, the fact that we have actually fallen on CPI and PPI to a noticeable degree is a good sign. All right, it's the market kind of sort of saying to themselves, "Well, actually we you know, we respect the result being a little bit cooler than expected and hopefully the yeah, FOMC meeting and the PCE results help contribute to that.

[00:16:57]But, since Wash is taking this meeting by meeting, we're literally going to have to take this month by month at this stage in time. All in all, think of it like this. We have good dates. We have cycle behavior showing that altcoins are at the right place at the right time to show the same signs of past cycles. We have the macro market as well you saw before all showing signs of already bottomed and starting to come up. The final piece we need is for the Fed to start cutting. Now, obviously there's other macro factors that play here that are going to determine this, but ultimately boiling it all down, we need conditions to ease. That's going to bring in liquidity, and liquidity brings risk on markets up. So, thank you all for watching. I'd love to hear your thoughts down below. You know, a lot of time goes into making these videos because it's not just what I bring to you, it's researching, making sure what I'm saying is exact, being on the computer before I even make the videos and making sure I understand myself what's happening at least to my best degree, and then bringing it all to you.

[00:17:51]So, a like down below goes a long way to to supporting all the work that goes into it. If you don't want to like that, that's a problem at all. I appreciate your time sincerely nonetheless. Have a good rest of your day. Talk to you tomorrow. Bye-bye.