Don't Get Rekt With Chiliz ☢ CHZ Crypto Analysis

Ajouté : 2026-05-05

[00:00:00]When a token pumps, when a token is going up, the beginners are wondering, should I buy now? Now, the professionals do the exact opposite. They're wondering, at what point should I bet on falling prices and take advantage of all of those beginners? Now, in this video, we're going to look at Chili's. Going to look at, based on quantifiable metrics, how we can trade Chili's profitably.

[00:00:22]Now, Chili's used to be an inflating cryptocurrency, as in the number of tokens tended to go up. And that then led the Chili's price underperform the general altcoin market. From the top here, in November of 2022 to the bottom in November of 2025, Chili's, or CHZ, underperformed the rest of the altcoin market by 96%.

[00:00:48]But things have now turned around. Or have they? Is this just another opportunity to potentially short the token? To bet on falling prices again?

[00:00:57]To answer this question, we're going to run a simulation of buying and selling the Chili's token over time. We're going to look at the golden crosses and the death crosses. When a shorter-term moving average crosses a longer-term moving average. This strategy, in general, tends to work very well. For example, we just recently opened a short on BitTensor. This is the strategy equity over time trading BitTensor with those moving average crosses. And we did get a death cross. That was on the 6th of April. Since then, BitTensor went down massively and our copy trading vault, where we bet exactly on that strategy, has hit a new all-time high.

[00:01:42]And so, I very much like this strategy because we bet on the general trend, we bet on falling prices when an altcoin tends to underperform, we take advantage of that trend, but we also don't get wrecked by a potential short squeeze because we wait until we get the death cross. We wait until we really have the momentum going down. And so, let's do the numbers for Chili's. Here's Bitcoin Strategy Analytics, the backtesting platform for the premium members. We look at Chili's and we try to find out what's the best moving average combination. We go both long and short and we include 11% financing fees.

[00:02:17]That's what has to be paid on average on perpetual future platforms like Hyperliquid. And then we get this chart over here. The chart shows a slow moving average duration on the x-axis, a fast-moving average duration on the y-axis, and the combination of those two moving averages then show what golden and death crosses historically worked the best for Chili's. And the answer is the 3-day with 11-day simple moving average. So, if you just bought and held Chili's over the time period, you would have gotten 16% per annum. But longing and shorting Chili's over the time gave 159% per annum. And that's without any leverage. And that's how that looks like over time. This is the portfolio measured in Chili's token. The 3- and 11-day simple moving average. That's now here on the chart. Currently, the shorter-term moving average, so the line in turquoise, the 3-day simple moving average, is above the 11-day simple moving average, the line in white. The chart is a bit fuzzy, so let's take away the price itself. That's then our buying signals and selling signals. And so, just based on this data, it's probably a bit too early to bet on falling prices just yet. The momentum is still healthy.

[00:03:31]We're still going up. And Chili's could potentially outperform a bit more, maybe by another 30% even. And so, I'm trying to do the exact opposite of what most other people do. Most people just buy an altcoin and hope for it to rally. They just dollar cost average in and then they just get wrecked continuously. Most altcoins tend to underperform Bitcoin most of the time. I try to do the exact opposite, as in I don't try to buy the bottoms when it just keeps bottoming.

[00:04:00]Instead, I try to short the tops. When an altcoin tends to underperform long-term, why not look for a price rally and then bet on falling prices when we are high enough, when the momentum has already slowed down? That's why we take the golden and the death crosses. We want to see a death cross because we want to see our potential short squeeze has finished, how it doesn't continue to go up. Because that's a potential danger with this strategy. Let's say we thought that Chili's was already expensive which was true. Subsequently, it went down. Still, if you entered a short here, you'd still get wrecked because Chili's more than doubled temporarily. It had another secondary and tertiary short squeeze.

[00:04:43]Better to wait until the momentum slows down, until we at least get a death cross. And yes, there might be bad signals every now and then, but in general, that's why we run the backtest.

[00:04:55]That combination of the 3- and the 11-day simple moving average historically worked the best. There are other moving average combinations that also kind of okay. So, let's say the 16 together with the 41-day simple moving average. But I already like this strategy since the outperformance is quite consistent. You can simply monitor those moving averages yourself. Right, you press forward slash in TradingView, enter the simple moving average, then double click on the line and adjust the length. And then you can just look at the day close every single day. That's one way to do it. It's a bit cumbersome.

[00:05:29]And that's why we've got the automatic alerts set up in premium. For example, here for Zcash, we got a sell alert on the 15th of April. Have a look at where Zcash is now. Of course, the BitTensor signal, right, what we just talked about at the beginning of the video. Very few people think about shorting an asset 1 or 2 weeks after the short squeeze.

[00:05:51]That's where the alpha here is. Most people consider that at some point the short squeeze will be over and momentum turns around. But once it does turn around, attention goes down and we tend to not have those assets on our radars anymore. That's why there is some edge in this strategy. It's the non-obvious move. If you found this video interesting, feel free to give it a like. Feel free to also subscribe. I publish videos regularly. See you next time on YouTube or see you in premium.

[00:06:15]Cheers.