Could the ‘Trump Boom’ Reshape the Housing Market Overnight?

Added: 2026-04-30

[00:00:00]Well, here's a question for you. Could the Trump boom reshape the housing market overnight? If you or anyone you know right now is trying to buy a house lately, you know what the housing market looks like right now. It's kind of a disaster. So, for many Americans, the whole idea of the American dream feels like it's slipping further and further out of reach. I mean, the average age of first-time homebuyer now pushing 40 years old. Back in the '80s, that was down to early '30s.

[00:00:25]This is a crisis. It's hurting a large demographic, but it doesn't seem like there are any real solutions that can make a dent in this. Well, President Donald Trump now says he has a master plan.

[00:00:36]Do you believe him? He says it's a strategy that he claims will rescue the American dream once and for all, but is it genius or would it backfire creating even bigger mess? So, today we're going to take a look at what this plan would actually mean for the US housing market.

[00:00:52]In an economic report just released by the White House, the Trump administration recognized that the housing shortage is due to a multitude of factors. The report said President Trump understands real estate like no previous president in history and his administration is committed to protecting and restoring the American dream of homeownership. Now, this plan addresses the administration's goal to make it easier for Americans to enter the housing market without reducing the high levels of equity that homeowners are enjoying today. If you bought a house before the year 2020, you're probably sitting on about $100,000. The average is about $100,000 in equity. So, before we talk about solutions, we need to grasp just how vast this problem actually is. It's massive.

[00:01:32]The housing shortage right now can be traced all the way back to the Great Recession when builders took a big hit.

[00:01:37]The industry collapsed, took years to pick back up. Even though we're almost two decades out from that crash, it's hard to believe. 2008, oh my gosh. The housing market has never fully recovered. Builders have been burnt once before, so they take a slower approach to building. They don't go all in.

[00:01:55]Not only that, but the cost of building has risen exponentially. Everywhere you look, from the cost of lumber to labor, it's become incredibly expensive to build homes today. And to understand how the homebuilding industry was hit by the Great Recession is the key to understanding the shortage. So, today the White House and the White House economists like Kevin Hassett and others are now saying the US housing market is shh short a whopping 10 million homes.

[00:02:20]That's a huge part of why home prices have skyrocket not only in the last couple of decades.

[00:02:25]This, of course, is the impact of inflation, the rising interest rates post-COVID, all exacerbated this issue.

[00:02:32]The White House pointed out that home prices have risen 82% since the year 2000. Well, incomes have only risen about 12%. So, clearly, this is a huge mismatch that puts housing affordability in the tank for many people.

[00:02:46]So, today a potential homebuyer needs to earn way more than the average worker just to afford a typical home. That impossible feeling isn't just good old-fashioned pessimism or imposter syndrome. For millions of Americans, the math is actually really brutal. It's actually impossible to purchase a home.

[00:03:00]I mean, if those interest rates are up just a little bit, that's the difference between buying the house and another $800 tacked onto that monthly payment.

[00:03:09]So, how does Trump propose to fix this?

[00:03:11]His plan seems to have a few main pillars. Some of them sound pretty good on paper. Some are pretty controversial and some, well, they seem to be completely contradicting each other. So, we'll dig into that more in a minute, but first, I have a question for you.

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[00:05:11]So, now assuming that you've done all that, let's get back to it. Let's talk about these. First up, the idea that this has generated a ton of headlines lately banning large institutional investors from buying up single-family homes. The story goes that faceless Wall Street firms are swooping in, all-cash offers, snatching up houses that should go to families.

[00:05:33]And they're turning them into rental properties. Trump has promised to put a stop to it arguing it will free up houses for everyday Americans. So, you can check out my full video that I did on Trump's investor ban here if you want to see more on context on this issue. Click the little card up here to watch that.

[00:05:50]On the surface, this makes perfect sense, right? Who wants to get in a bidding war with a billion-dollar corporation for a three-bedroom house in the suburbs, like these starter homes that all of these big corporations like Blackstone and others were buying up.

[00:06:03]However, opponents to Trump's housing ban say these institutional investors own such a tiny fraction of the total single-family housing stock, somewhere between 1 and 3%, that it's not really a big deal.

[00:06:14]And that's absolutely true. They do own between 1 and 3%, but when we are talking about a shortage of 10 million homes, 3% isn't exactly a small number.

[00:06:24]Again, this part of the plan is a bit nuanced. And they're also they're buying these properties in some of the hottest areas that could provide the highest amounts of rent and the highest return on investment.

[00:06:34]So, it's not perfect like banning this, but in certain markets that are hotspots for Wall Street buyers, it could be a net positive if he shuts it down. Now, the second part of Trump's plan attempts to hit the real problem, low supply.

[00:06:48]Now, hitting at the issue of deregulation. Trump's plan claims that increasingly pervasive California-style fees, mandates, regulations, and red tape have all added to this expensive government overhead and that adds to the cost of building. And then you have the government bureaucratic tax on housing supply. So, the argument is that you have this tangled web of rules, everything from environmental reviews to zoning laws, makes building new homes incredibly slow and expensive. The theory here is that by cutting this bureaucratic red tape, builders could get more homes on the market faster for less money.

[00:07:24]The plan also suggests opening up parts of federally owned land for new large-scale housing developments with low taxes, fewer rules.

[00:07:32]The government would find some, you know, some surplus land, hand it over to local control, and then encourage the construction of affordable homes. And this is where Trump's plan gets closer to what most economists and analysts agree is the root of the crisis. We simply don't have enough homes.

[00:07:48]If it's done right, cutting genuinely pointless red tape could actually speed up this construction process. And then using federal land could, in theory, create brand new housing inventory. The problem, though, is that the biggest roadblocks to building are almost always local.

[00:08:03]We're talking about restrictive zoning laws that dictate what types of units you can build and where. And the federal government has little to no power to change a town's local zoning laws.

[00:08:14]A federal push could offer some incentives, but it can't force a community to allow more duplexes duplexes or apartments.

[00:08:21]You know, you can't really change what the governor of a state does or what these local municipalities do, like in Los Angeles, for instance. So, fixing this part of the problem is easier said than done. And here's where the plan starts to unravel a bit because while some of Trump's proposals aim to make building cheaper, some of his other signature policies could do the exact opposite. And this is where the contradictory piece comes in that I mentioned at the beginning because tariffs or taxes on imported goods, a lot of these materials we need to build houses, lumber, steel, cabinets, wires, are all imported. We get a lot of lumber from Canada.

[00:08:56]The Trump administration has already put broad tariffs in place and has talked about expanding them.

[00:09:01]And according to the National Association of Home Builders, these tariffs have already added around $10,900 to the price of a new single-family home.

[00:09:10]That means any cost savings from deregulation would be instantly canceled out by the more expensive materials coming across the border.

[00:09:18]Then, of course, you have to mention Trump's choice to begin a new war, possibly the biggest punch in the gut to the housing market of all. I mean, look at the impact of inflation and interest rates.

[00:09:29]Because this one move alone has essentially undone any progress the administration has made in its efforts to make housing more affordable. The Iran war started all of this. Mortgage rates were going down and then boom, we do Israel's bidding and go to war with Iran. Boom, mortgage rates go back up.

[00:09:49]Right at the height, you know, April April and May, biggest housing months of the year and ground to a halt. So, if one part the plan trying to make it cheaper to build while the other major policies like war, tariffs are making a home more expensive.

[00:10:06]So, when you lay it all out, it's clear that while these proposals do tap into real frustrations, they might not fix the fundamental problem long-term.

[00:10:14]Banning big investors is popular. It's a fun headline, but its impact would be relatively small.

[00:10:21]The push to build more is the right idea, but it's undermined by other policies that could make more expensive.

[00:10:28]And with interest rates going up, how are you going to push builders to start speeding up the process if their homes are just going to sit there unsold because interest rates are so high?

[00:10:38]See how it all comes together?

[00:10:40]So, what's the real issue here?

[00:10:42]Most economists and housing experts agree it's a severe chronic lack of housing supply driven mostly by local zoning laws. So, for decades local governments, communities have made it harder and harder to build anything other than single-family homes.

[00:10:57]That's created a massive bottleneck.

[00:11:00]But there's also heightened rates that have created a widespread lock-in effect. People who've been sitting in these homes for years and they just don't want to lose that mortgage. So, you know what?

[00:11:09]Instead of having that three-bedroom, four-bedroom house cuz now they have two kids, they just have two kids shoved in one room in bunk beds.

[00:11:16]That's a lot I mean, it's just crazy.

[00:11:19]So, you you can see this problem has been in the works for decades and given this perfect storm of complex factors, it's not likely to improve anytime soon.

[00:11:28]Solutions aren't simple. You can't just point to one single issue and there's no overnight fix. The housing crisis is a complex beast created from decades of policy decisions and economic crises.

[00:11:39]So, ultimately, the truth is this.

[00:11:41]Government has a horrible track record of dealing with the housing market and if you think one politician or political party has the answers and the power to change things overnight, I think you're sadly mistaken. It's a uniparty after all.

[00:11:55]So guys, what do you think? Will Trump's proposals actually help move the needle?

[00:11:59]Or should we be looking for other solutions right now? Do you think there's an answer to the affordable housing crisis?

[00:12:04]I look forward to reading your thoughts in the comments section below. Thank you guys so much for subscribing and we'll see you next time.