Crypto Alert: Good Risk Reward Ratio Here!

本站添加: 2026-05-05

[00:00:00]Hey guys, this is market update. We have two major narratives now, which is actually good news because I think we've been without a storyline for well over a year, right? The ETFs were the major storyline. That's gone, right? Morgan Stanley launched an ETF recently, which is fantastic news, but because it's the kind of same old story, um just like with everything in life, the story comes out, there's a volatile event, everyone reacts to it, and then slowly people get disinterested, right?

[00:00:25]So, you need new storylines. So, quantum and then the Clarity Act. These are the storylines which carry risk, but also carry the ability to re-rate the price as well.

[00:00:36]You need storylines, and you need a focus, and so these are the two things that do carry risk, but also have potential opportunities. Uh but look, let's start firstly on uh the way people behave. The human behavior constantly baffles me. Um but it is what it is, right?

[00:00:51]86% of spent supply year-to-date is from top buyers capitulating.

[00:00:58]This is absolutely diabolical behavior.

[00:01:01]Why would you buy something and then sell it immediately for a loss?

[00:01:05]It just doesn't >> [laughter] >> doesn't make any sense to me. Why would you do that? If you If you don't want to hold the thing, why are you buying it in the first place?

[00:01:13]In any case, this is just natural, right? Top buyers capitulating. Once they're all out, then you can move higher. Um look, a lot of buying around this level, right? 70 odd K. So, I think we're seeing a a bit of a floor here. I don't think that this is a bear flag going into a bigger bear market, which I'll explain in a second, but look, right here, we are in very, very oversold uh conditions that are the same as all of these previous low zones.

[00:01:43]Um and I just think that on probability, it doesn't feel like we're going into an a 12-18 month bear market now.

[00:01:52]You know, there's a lot going on in the world, but it just feels to me like the probability is that it kind of works out and gets better. Got a new Fed chair coming in that is going to kind interest rates.

[00:02:04]Um you've got the Iran thing, which is potentially going to get worse. The ceasefire is going to run out, but are they going to get a deal? Then you have the Xi meeting as well at the end of this month. Where, you know, Trump wants to do business, right? His admin wants to do business, wants to get a deal done. So, is that going to work out slightly better?

[00:02:22]But, it doesn't feel like we're at the top of the cycle where the central bank has to step in and cut rate and raise rates and destroy everything. Doesn't feel like that, right? So, is this like a mid-cycle blip? I just don't think we're going to sit in an a 12-to-18-month bear market here, and then only around the halving start to climb up again. It doesn't feel like that to me. So, when Bitcoin is at trend, um and the outlook can be positive, or at least, again, is the rate of change going to get worse, right? Like, we had the Middle East thing. Like, is the rate of change going to get worse here? No.

[00:02:58]Uh and so, I I think the prob the balance of probability is that I think it's, you know, quite a good level here.

[00:03:02]I don't think we're going to sit in a bear market for 18 months, right? Um there's a lot of buying around the 200-week moving average. I mean, that's what you'd expect in in these uptrends.

[00:03:09]So, I'm kind of positive, but we'll talk about the two major narratives as well.

[00:03:14]This is diabolical behavior, right? Top buyers capitulating. It's pretty good, right? You need them to capitulate, then you get the new level in, and then you can move higher. If you do trade, uh and you want to trade this breakout, right?

[00:03:23]Then uh trade on Bybit. Click the link below, you can get a deposit bonus when you sign up as a new user. Anything you deposit, they'll give you a bonus to trade with. I said in previous video that quantum's like the mother of all fud, right? Because it's close enough to worry about. It's like a cloud over the industry, um but it's kind of too far away to have any specific plan right now. And so, you've got sellers off the back of that and people that are not buying off the back of that. However, over the next 6 months, you can see the cogs are already starting to turn. So, is there a potential agreement that developers can come to or the industry can come to to say, "Look, these are certain plans that we can put in place, etc." The action is happening. And so, if a kind of good step forward happens with quantum, then what's the point of those sellers coming in again? Right? They've already come in. They've kind of already capitulated.

[00:04:08]Right? And so, all you need is those capitulations to happen, which we've seen is happening cuz people are capitulating right now. Right? Those top buyers are capitulating. And then suddenly, the quantum issue just kind of moves forward and becomes a little bit more certain in terms of potential upgrade paths. And that's good news. So, you're buying now during uncertainty, and the reward is that, you know, you're buying uncertainty, and then when the certainty comes, you get rewarded by higher prices. Uh and those people will be buying higher again.

[00:04:37]Right? So, can you take the risk? Can you take the volatility here? Can you take the uncertainty now? I think buying Bitcoin when the price is at its trend rate of growth is just great. It's like you're getting fairly cheap risk at this point, right? Now, if Bitcoin's at 150 right now or 200 right now, then it's quite expensive in relation to the trend. That's not a great price to buy, but now it's like you're getting rewarded for that potential risk that you're taking.

[00:05:03]The other thing is clarity, which is all this.

[00:05:06]Which is really touch and go. I mean, I don't know if this thing's going to get through. Banks and brokerages are playing a cynical game, backing Bitcoin and crypto in public whilst their DC lobbyists delay, obstruct, and oppose real integration. Look, TradFi wants to make money from this thing.

[00:05:20]Um but they certainly don't want the competition uh from Galaxy and and other kind of crypto-native players.

[00:05:26]So, who knows, right?

[00:05:29]Um you know, it's not just about technology. It's about finance is essentially a game of power and control and um you know, reg- you know, monopoly by regulation. That That's what finance is, right? And so, they have the monopoly, these guys.

[00:05:44]Um and they want to make money from Bitcoin by producing ETFs and selling them to their clients.

[00:05:49]That's not really adoption in my opinion, right? Uh but look, a lot of people are getting excited about this.

[00:05:54]Goldman's Bitcoin ETF and everyone's saying Bitcoin adoption is inevitable.

[00:05:57]This is a This is a uh an income ETF, which means they're selling calls against Bitcoin. That's not Bitcoin adoption. In any case, it's something that has to happen to bring more uh more liquidity to Bitcoin, which is actually a good thing.

[00:06:11]Um it's hardly adoption though, but they're just making money from it.

[00:06:14]They're just making money from selling calls against uh you know, Bitcoin. Uh it's good for the the market though, for sure, because for an asset, you need a lot of liquidity and everything. So, it is by by association good for good for the market, but it's hardly Bitcoin adoption. Charles Schwab entered direct Bitcoin trading. They're charging 75 basis points per trade. It's embarrassing. Um you know, Binance charges 10 basis points. You're charging 7.5x seven and a half times the trading fees.

[00:06:46]Uh just abysmal, right? It's like I I I don't get it, right? It's like you just don't want to be competitive at all, right? You just want to hide behind your state monopoly, right? You don't want the Clarity Act to go through, and you want to charge people almost 1% trading fees. It's pathetic. Morgan Stanley uses 0.14% fee to draw in 100 million in first week. Um look, they're selling to their clients. They just want to make money from this thing.

[00:07:11]Um it is what it is. It's good for the market whether Clarity goes through or not. Again, if it doesn't go through, expect soft prices, right? Cuz everyone's just going to be like, "That's bad news. We'll sell." But I think if you're a buyer, buying at the trend rate of growth is getting, you know, decently rewarded for the risk that you're taking. You can go lower for sure. You can maybe stay sideways for a bit, which is part of the risk that we take here if these things aren't great.

[00:07:35]Um but at least we're not paying 200k per Bitcoin right now, and then we've got these potential bad news events. The price is already kind of pricing a lot of this negativity in where it's at its trend, right? And potential downside, you know, how how much more, right? It could happen.

[00:07:52]But you're seeing buyers start to step in, start to take the risks. And if you get some potentially good news out of this over the next 6 months, along with rate cuts [snorts] of the Fed, which is clearly going to happen, and a better macro outlook, then you can go higher. I think that's whether we get every single piece of good news or not, it's probably not going to happen. Um but I think the probabilities are pretty good that it's mostly good in the short term, and that we don't have to wait another 18 months for the halving to get a bull market. I just don't see that as like the the most probable thing. Uh and so getting rewarded right now, you're buying Bitcoin at its trend rate.

[00:08:25]So the risk-to-reward, I think, is actually looking fairly favorable, but man, touch and go on clarity and uh and the quantum thing is just like it's never [snorts] going to get perfectly uh figured out. Um I think you just have to wait for people to get bored of the narrative, and maybe move on a little bit. So I understand there are potential hurdles over the next 6 months, right?

[00:08:43]Um but you have to relate those hurdles and potential bad news points, like if clarity doesn't pass, etc., to the actual price, because Bitcoin is in a if you look at the price in relation to the trend, Bitcoin is about as weak as it ever gets, right? It was as weak as it was during the FTX blow up and during these kind of massive sell-offs. That's crazy cuz we're at 75k. The trend is very clear, right? It's just going up here. And there are issues, there are always issues, right? Um but the price is is weak.

[00:09:10]And so the potential bad news, you know, that is very dangerous if you're at all-time highs, but we're not.

[00:09:17]That's dangerous if the Fed has to raise interest rates and smash a a bull market, but they're they're going to cut rates, right? There's a new Fed chair coming in, so they're going to cut rates.

[00:09:27]Right? That's That's bad news if a potential war may happen, but that's already happened, right? So the rate of change is not going to get worse and worse, potentially, right? And yeah, it's uncertainty in the short term, but the potential for just okay news or fairly good news and then the price is low. It's like a risk reward thing, right? And you're buying fairly cheap risk in relation to the trend. It's not a cheap price. We're still at 75k, right?

[00:09:52]But fundamentally, this industry is growing and I don't think it's too I don't think it's worth too much to worry about the pace that happens.

[00:10:00]Right? It's like actually just missing the the forest for the trees, right?

[00:10:04]Worrying about the pace of the adoption is kind of not Go and get a hobby or something. Look at the actual adoption.

[00:10:10]It's like looking at YouTube and Facebook and seeing that user numbers go like this and being like, "I'm really worried about the pace of that adoption.

[00:10:16]I don't want to invest in Google. I don't want to invest in meta." It's like, "No, they're adding like billions of users over time, right? Do you want to invest in the cable networks or do you want to invest in social media, right? Which one's been the better option?"

[00:10:27]Look how much is flowing into these asset managers.

[00:10:30]Look at tokenization. It's going through the roof. These are tokenized treasuries. Then you have stocks here as well, stocks tokenized stocks. There's only one way this is going, right?

[00:10:40]Crypto is a new distribution mechanism for these assets and of course, this is going to continue. Now, the pace may slow, may may speed up. We don't really know.

[00:10:49]Um so, that's a potential risk in in the short term, but you always get risk in the short term. The fact is that Bitcoin is decently priced in relation to its trend and so that you just kind of buy here, right?

[00:11:01]You're an investor, you buy and you hold and you just see through the short-term volatility. In any case, look, we're trying to break out of this anyway. I think next week I think 80 is the level for short-term holders as well. So, maybe we get up there and then we'll have to see, but um feels a little bit different. Doesn't feel like we're having a bear market rally with a capitulation. It feels like all of that bad news has happened and maybe we can look forward. I don't think my base case is moving into a 18-month bear market and just getting worse and worse and worse and then climbing out. It doesn't feel like that's going to happen, right?

[00:11:37]Um it feels quite hopeful for me because we're we're we're weak, but potentially things could just work out and get a little bit better. And stock market's all-time highs, everything settles down, the oil price comes down. That's that's the good news.

[00:11:50]The bad news is it just gets worse, more bombing, um we're going to have to wait another 3 months and something else. So, but there's always risk in the short term, but if you're buying at trend, I think it's you know, it's okay, right? I mean, where else are you going to buy?

[00:12:02]Um you just have to buy trend. Uh if you trade Bitcoin crypto or trade for assets, you can trade them all on Bybit.

[00:12:08]Get the deposit link down below. Click that link, sign up, you'll get a deposit bonus when you sign up. I'm James and I'm managing G. Cheers to watching and I'll see you in the next one.