Markets at the Edge: Oil, Yields, Bitcoin & Big Tech

Added: 2026-05-19

[00:00:04][music] [snorts] doo doo doo doo doo doo doo doo doo doo doo.

[00:00:28]be in love.

[00:00:48]Yeah.

[00:01:00]>> [music] [music] >> Feeling in me and N let everything let me All the way to heaven.

[00:02:49][music] >> [music] >> Heat. Heat.

[00:03:29]Heat.

[00:03:40][music] Hey, Heat.

[00:03:55]Heat.

[00:04:12]Heat. [music] >> [music] >> Heat. Heat.

[00:04:52]What is going on everybody? We are back for another beautiful day. Another beautiful day. It is good to be here man. Let me tell you. Let me tell you.

[00:05:03]It is good to be here. It is good to see you all. We can hear eases clicking. GM easy friends. What up English NFTTS?

[00:05:09]What is good to the chat? What is good?

[00:05:11]What is good? What is good? What is good? We are back and what I thought was going to be a bloody Monday. Turns out it might not actually be. Seems that we may have a little bit of progress on the ceasefire front and uh I'm a little bit excited about it. It seems I was a little bit nervous. I woke up today and was like, man, we might actually get beat up. We might get beat up today. I ain't going to lie. We might we might take a hit. We might take a hit. I'm not going to sugarcoat it. thought the account would take a hit, but it seems that in turn, we're actually going to be up quite nicely on a few plays. For those unfamiliar with the market as a whole, with those unfamiliar with the market as a whole, there is some things that have, how do I say it, moved in our favor.

[00:06:01]Uh, we can take a quick look at our current positions. And I want to share my screen here because there is some good stuff happening on some of these charts.

[00:06:15]Some good stuff happening on some of these charts. [sighs] The main one service now looking like it's going to open up at $99. We're on $100 calls for June. And I think this actually keeps ripping into the day. We have these June 1800 calls which may actually open up fairly in the green which I'm personally excited about. Uh I shared a lot of these to subscribers on X to Bogago's Wales. Said that this was the play that I'm getting in at. Um yeah, I like this play a lot personally.

[00:06:48]Personally, I'm on that. I'm on QS. I'm on a couple others. DGX. I'm still in Crisper Therapeutics. I want to get out of that though personally. Yeah, you got DGXX up 2.3%, ARM up 1.2, QS up.3, Zcaler up 2%. We should have a decently green open at 9:30. So, I'm very interested in that just purely because last night before I went to sleep, I thought the market was going to nuke.

[00:07:15]Yeah, I'm still QS. I'm in QS still as well. That's I mean I'm on nine $9 calls for QS. So, I need a I need a run on that, please.

[00:07:26]Uh, I would not buy on open personally.

[00:07:28]We've been holding these for a little bit. You can see we broke above 10K. I'm still on all these calls. I added LMNT calls and some decent size, five of those. So, I'm very curious to see how this opens today. Obviously, with some of the war situation. We'll see.

[00:07:45]Might cut that. Not sure. Not sure.

[00:07:51]We will see. We will see.

[00:08:00]We will see. My crisp that's pretty much gone to zero. I'm just looking for a climb to get out to. Yeah, I got I got rinsed on crisper therapeutics. You can see that mine's literally at zero. Down 99%.

[00:08:12]Which is fine. I actually think that a lot of these are going to end up doing fairly decent over the next couple of days. The Hood is the one I'm most cautiously watching. I want to see that move. S&P flipped from red to green.

[00:08:25]This thing was down over half a percent pre-market. NASDAQ futures as well were also down pre-market.

[00:08:34]Now I believe flipping green. Yeah, now up half a percent. They were down a full percent. NASDAQ.

[00:08:40]So, we've seen this flip in the market which is largely driven from a potential ceasefire agreement.

[00:08:50]Yeah. And Kobes is also tweeting about this. Iran has launched a Hormuz safe, a Bitcoinbacked insurance service for shipping companies that want to transit the straight of Hormuz. The Iranian government says it could generate more than 10 billion in revenue. The service will be for Iranian shipping companies and cargo owners. The shipment will be covered from moment of confirmation and signed receipt will be given to the owner. It is unclear if the insurance service will be changed in addition to tolls which have been as much as 2 million per ship. Iran says an official website with more information is coming soon. On top of that, the White House announced the US China trade deal and yep board of trade deal and yeah, it's it's been pretty wild. Obviously, rates are moving. We saw Bitcoin drop down overnight now turning back around.

[00:09:32]It's been pretty good overall. It's been pretty good.

[00:09:38]watched your R2K vid since you've looked at some R2K stuff. Have you heard of SATs? What's SATS? Wait, what R2K vid?

[00:09:46]R2K? Wolfie, what are you talking about here?

[00:09:49]What are you talking about here? I don't know what R2K is. I don't know what R2K is.

[00:09:56]Why is this I want to know is this also SpaceX IPO. I want to try to get this full screen. There we go. There we go.

[00:10:04]It would drive me a little bit crazy that it was not truly full screen. Now it is. So overall though, we've had a couple key things that happened this weekend. You had the Iran situation, which a lot of people are on edge about.

[00:10:17]Oh, the Russell 2K. Yeah, the small cap stuff. Yeah. Um I'm still very bullish on the small cap stuff. Like I think in general, small caps are going to outperform longer term, especially with rates in general. And if we look here, the Russell is currently trending up nice half a percent. INOD down half a percent. I still like Ample. I'm hesitant on it. KLX, QLYS, and 59 are kind of the ones that I've been watching pretty closely. So, there's probably a few more that I'm going to end up adding to my Russell 2000 watch list. We can probably do that today as well. But the main thing that I want to look at today, um, SATS is the Echoar Corporate. They have a two billion agreement with SpaceX. Imagine Elon Musk just follow Mr. Beast. That'd be cool. So, I want to look at this. We had this Bitcoin chart from last week where I literally said if we break past this line, we're going to drop. Sure enough, we broke down past that trend line, this small little trend line that I that I had drawn. People said that the trend line was stupid, that it wasn't real, that it doesn't make sense. You can literally trace this trend line back to like here.

[00:11:23]And then this trend line actually just keeps going.

[00:11:28]This trend line keeps going.

[00:11:30]So, I was fairly spot on with the Bitcoin call that if it dropped, I thought we'd pump up and then tank. We did that. You got the lower high and now we're forming lower lows. The big line in the sand for me is this 775 area. I'm going to go through I'm going to go through Leah pulled Ashen Brothers 13F as well. I have a lot of thoughts on it.

[00:11:50]Uh he sold some of the stuff that we've been in. So, I definitely want to take a look at that. If we look at ETH, ETH broke down all the way through our range.

[00:12:00]Soul broke down all the way through our range. Hyperlid still showing the most strength on the market and that's not surprising. So, we ultimately had our lines drawn and could have just traded them perfectly all week. Like you had the breakdowns, you had the back test for entries into shorts. Soul, same idea. You literally had a back test right into our entry for short all the way down to the takerits. So, I want to get in and chart a couple things specifically on crypto. May 18th to what is the end of the week, the 23rd to May 23.

[00:12:34]This is where I want to chart this week.

[00:12:36]So, [snorts] we have Bitcoin in kind of this inflection zone right here. This would be my line right there would be my stops. And if we give up these lows again, I want to go short. You need to break under that 765 area. under 765 will put us down towards 74. We're gonna only take one trade each week. One trade. So under here, stop loss here. Longs, I would want to get longs above this line.

[00:13:07]Where is this? Probably like right here.

[00:13:09]Right. Yep. Right there.

[00:13:11]And I would want to target longs for where are we looking? Here. Probably like right here to there. So, that's kind a pretty tight stop on this, but I like 77819 being that fixed line in the sand for our stops. Entering longs over 784 with a target of 80K. Stop loss at 778.

[00:13:37]Entering shorts under 765 for a target of 748. On ETH, ETH has broken down substantially more. You had this ugly ugly pattern here where you basically ripped all the way down straight through, but now we've finally got a little bit of consolidation here, which is where I'm somewhat targeting for this. I would want to see us break back under that.

[00:14:04]Yeah, TE is just up because of Leopold for sure, personally. And now, if you break under this, you're kind of looking for this. So, I'd be looking uh shorts under 2096 for a target of 1970 with a tight stop like right around here.

[00:14:24]You have stops at 2167 for a much gnarlier selloff and then longs. I would be long here.

[00:14:35]Did not mean to do that. Why did it go horizontal?

[00:14:42]This would be where I'm longing over 2227 which you can see we have a couple key breakdowns breakouts and if we get over that 2223 I would be looking for a move up to like 236 probably closer to like here 2347 very very simple very simple on ETH That's how I like that. Soul.

[00:15:12]Soul may actually be one of the better charts that could be making a higher low. If you do not give up these lows again, then we should theoretically run it back towards like 104.

[00:15:26]That would be where I'm cautious would be this 104 mark.

[00:15:30]That's kind of how I'm thinking about it. I don't want to get too aggressive, but I do like where the market is.

[00:15:37]I I don't hate that this has not given up its lows because I look at soul and it does seem like we got a higher high here which did break above this high as well. So that to me is a good sign. You got a slight break above that high. So if we get rid of all those lines and just get purely on the TA basis, I would be looking shorts under this for a move all the way back to 76. uh you'd probably want to be a little bit closer like here to 78. So under 83 would probably open the door to 78 and your stop would want to be like right about here.

[00:16:16]Now on the long side, similarly, I would be long above 87 for at least a move to 93.

[00:16:27]So, it's pretty aggressive swings, but I think we're at this inflection point in the market right now where you have to be a little bit more optimistic if the market can turn around.

[00:16:40]Uh, CoKinny, the article dropped yesterday. I dropped an article yesterday.

[00:16:47]If you go check, bare market rally is over, homie. Maybe. And if it is, we we have our downside targets, which I'm fine with. Uh, the article dropped yesterday. I can actually show you. It dropped yesterday at 6:45 p.m. Sundays are when I drop the articles to subs.

[00:17:03]That's when I drop articles to subscribers. Every Sunday is what we're doing, of course. Yeah, just check on Sundays.

[00:17:12]And I think you can filter by subscriber only posts, but that's where I dropped that. [snorts] So, continuing on this path, we've outlined all of our crypto targets for the week.

[00:17:25]If I'm looking at the S&P here, the S&P is a little bit more difficult. Yeah, Wolfie, it's like $4.99. It's Wolfie, you're subscribed on YouTube, you get a lot of the content anyway. And Bodo's whales get the content, too. So, Bodo's whales get the same content.

[00:17:44]A lot of the written articles are stuff that I've done in YouTube videos that I just break down in a written format. Um, yeah, just some people like it. I also just share a lot of the same plays that I give to the whales. So, a lot of that is there. So, the other thing that I want to see here, the other thing that I've been closely watching is this S&P breakdown. If the S&P gives up this low at 731, I want to get real short 7 under 731, I want to get real short to like 700.

[00:18:18]Like I'll probably buy spy puts because this feels like a serious short position here where I would be short unless we broke back above here.

[00:18:32]I mean, it's only a 3% move down which is pretty crazy. But if you get if you give up that 73165 area, I want to be short here and probably some secondary shorts down towards here, which is like 9%.

[00:18:49]That's kind of where I'm watching right now because the other side of it is if you keep grinding up then realistically 800's probably our target which is the toughest part. Like you want to see some level of chop in my opinion. Like theoretically we could do something like that which would be just through the summer. Like that's a pretty substantial chop. But I do think this 71 this 731 area is my biggest one that I'm the most cautious of right now. Just simply from a standpoint of where I think the market is. I continued to talk about it and go back to the post that I had where I said, "If I'm being totally honest, I think the market chops for the next 45 days. I still have all my calls open."

[00:19:43]Yeah, I still have all of my calls open.

[00:19:45]I haven't closed any I closed one Service Now call. I'm not sure if I'm going to do uh anything with SpaceX. I got beat up on Cerebras, so I'm like a tiny bit hesitant on some of these illlquid pre-market stuff. We got the SpaceX go live. It's trading at a $2 trillion market cap, $25 a share.

[00:20:06]So, pretty nuts considering it did $46 million of volume. 46 mil. It ripped all the way up to 2.3 trillion. Currently sitting at a 2.06 trillion.

[00:20:20]That's it's a tough market to trade right now. I don't really want to get involved, especially because I do think the SpaceX IPO marks the top of the S&P.

[00:20:31]I think that that might mark the top of the S&P, which would be June 12th.

[00:20:36]So, you have until June 12th, which is actually hilarious. If you look at this, look at where I have us topping on this line that I drew. June 12th, like almost to the tea, June 12th.

[00:20:52]So, you have it would be right there.

[00:20:55]And FOMC happens right before it, right?

[00:20:58]When is June FOMC?

[00:21:03][sighs] When is the June FOMC?

[00:21:08]June 16th through 17th.

[00:21:13]Yeah. So, oops, did not mean to uh stop sharing, but June 16th through 17th, which that to me is like you have June 12th SpaceX IPO, SpaceX IPO, June 15 through 16th, FOMC meeting.

[00:21:39]Feels like the perfect time.

[00:21:50]Do you think SpaceX will vamp other stocks? No. No. Equities do not really have much of the vamping. Like Cerebras was 49 billion. Yeah, it's trillion. But a lot of these companies, if anything, are going to have more money on their in their pockets. I don't think SpaceX vamps it.

[00:22:04]I don't think SpaceX vamps it. Like, but I do think between the SpaceX IPO right into FOMC 2 days later, do you have market tutorials for beginners? No. I've been debating doing something like that where I create like a more of a tutorial video on YouTube that I might do. But I do think overall, dude, you're lining up for like a perfect storm when it comes to the S&P.

[00:22:31]You have the SpaceX IPO on the 12th, which is a Friday.

[00:22:37]And then the following week, June 15th and 16th, you have FOMC.

[00:22:43]So, I look at that and I'm like, okay, maybe maybe that's where they really top the S&P are those two days. By the way, this week we have some banger guests. We have Cleo tomorrow, we have OSF on Thursday, and then I'm bringing PO back on Friday. We're going to have PO back like once a week cuz I like talking the equity side of things with him and just breaking down. I want to get more into some pop culture stuff with him too. I like his takes on a lot of stuff. I like his takes on a lot of stuff. I'm going to get commenting on here too one of these days. Uh Wednesday might be a shorter show. I have to go in for some procedure that's like same day thing. Um yeah. So I mean we have market open in seven minutes. We have sailor buying a ton of Bitcoin.

[00:23:35]Kicks is still around. I would have kicks on. I would have kicks on. Um, we're all just kind of streaming our own stuff at the moment. Nick's obviously going through his hell stuff. So, it's it's largely me. I'm the captain now.

[00:23:46]I'm the captain now. But, oops. Almost just ended the broadcast by accident.

[00:23:50]Clicked the [snorts] wrong button. So, when I'm looking through this right now, uh, I do not have Obamacare now. I have regular health insurance. The Nifty is a is a business. We have health insurance, but I just have to go in for some like five-year checkup. For those unfamiliar, I did have the big C as a kid, so I have to go in and just get checked. Uh Sig would be good to have on, too. I want to get Frisk on. Dude, there's a bunch of people I want to get on. I have a long list of guests that I have to uh get on here, too. I want to take a look at the 30-year Treasury market. 30-year [snorts] 4.9.

[00:24:27][sighs] The Nifty Discord's still active. Yeah, the Nifty Discord is still very active.

[00:24:32]They still trade constantly.

[00:24:34]Dude, the 30-year bond is crazy cuz this is just like, dude, in general, I still don't think we're like out of the woods yet.

[00:24:45]Like, we're getting sold a lot of government bonds.

[00:24:51]Yeah, there's so Oh my gosh, I hate that it gives me that. I hate that Bloomberg gives me this. Oh, I cannot even look at Bloomberg.

[00:25:00]What's the link? I was there back uh Brad Mill is NFT. Brad Mill crushes.

[00:25:07]Could bond rates raise because of people selling bonds to a market. It could, but I think bond rates are just up because inflation is so high. Like inflation right now is still a pretty big concern, right? That's like the one of the main things I actually have to tell my AI to stop using Bloomberg.

[00:25:32]Need my producer to stop using Bloomberg. We need stuff that we can actually access. Yeah. I mean, dude, the main thing right now looking through like as I look at the market from a holistic view, you have Michael Sailor buying $2 billion worth of Bitcoin at an average price of 80,985.

[00:25:51]So, he already bought two billion way too high. Way too high, which is crazy. China had terrible data. Their retail sales were 2% with an expected 2%. Industrial production also fell there. So now you're s you're sitting in a situation where global economy is also facing tailwinds and that to me is not the best scenario.

[00:26:18]If you are facing global econ tailwinds, that's a very bad sign I would say because once the global economy continues to show signs of cracking, we kind of face a little bit of an issue. A little bit of an issue.

[00:26:42]You have to think too because the dollar denominates a lot of the trade and if the global economy is facing these these issues, there's more of a chance for potential hikes or cuts across the board. Like you still have to watch what other countries are doing with their interest rates for us to properly understand what the next play is going to be. I mean, it's pretty clear we're not going to get interest rate cuts this year. That seems like all but certain, which I don't love. Obviously, I would have loved interest rate cuts.

[00:27:11]Personally, does not seem like we're going to get that, which I guess is fine.

[00:27:18]Japan did raise. Canada, the UK, EU, all of those are things we have to watch very closely, but Japan raising is is certainly foreshadowing for what we're going to potentially do here. Right.

[00:27:33]This is the other thing that I've been closely watching. The 10-year Treasury just touched its highest and Japan's 30-year rises to a record. US Treasury yields were a little change on Monday, taking a breather after their global bond route that sent that sharply sent them higher last week. The 10-year Treasury note. So, if we look at this, it's at 4.583.

[00:27:56]Insane all-time high over the last year.

[00:27:58]Year to date, it is up a ton. Like, this is up over 10%. When the US Treasury yield is up so high, more people park money in these treasuries because for every 10 years, you can get four and a half% back on your dollar.

[00:28:14]I meant headwinds, right? Yeah. Whatever it was, Japan's market is tanking as we speak to. Yeah. Because when you raise rates, more people take risk on assets out of the market. So for those unfamiliar, the reason treasury rates and treasury yields dictate so much of the market is because investors, funds, large capital would rather park their money in these bonds. How do you long yields? You just buy them. You buy these bonds. You buy the 10-year bond and the two-year bond, the 30-year bond because it gives you when you buy that bond, that's the rate of return you get year-over-year for that level of it. So when you look at the 2-year, the 10-year, and the 30-year, if those are all going up, then historically it means the value of the dollar is more valuable, which means risk on assets are less valuable. So those drop. Let's get Claude to make a visual. Let's make Claude make us a visual.

[00:29:10]Explain why Treasury yields and Treasury bonds going up is bad for risk on assets.

[00:29:20]Make it visual as we need pictures to learn and make it so a 5-year-old can understand it. This is what we like to do here, chat, because when it can create a visual explainer for us, we can very easily understand a lot of this. So, I'm closely watching this. We got market open one minute, by the way. So, this is the best part. When bonds go up, safe and boring, stocks go down, fun and risky. Bonds heavy pushes stocks up. So, imagine the world of money like a giant seesaw.

[00:29:55]Damn, we up nice.

[00:29:58]Somehow, some way we're up today.

[00:30:01][snorts] Service now up, by the way, just so you guys can see. Up a couple hundred bucks.

[00:30:05]We were just up 500 to start the day. A lot of stuff didn't really move. LMT didn't move. Service Now did go up.

[00:30:11]We're up almost 100% on those. Just taking a look at this and we'll get back into that. Hood still flat uh on the day. So, most of the stuff basically stayed flat. QS went down somewhat substantially. Service Now is the one that really ran today. That was a nice one. So, that's still moving in our favor. I'm going to probably continue to hold these. I may cut another Service Now call, which I was very happy about.

[00:30:33]I like that trade. Was quite content.

[00:30:36]Honestly, I thought we'd be like much closer to like 5K today. We're only down now. We're up $67 on the day. So, we're moving nicely. We are moving nicely on the day overall. Uh LMT moving up finally. We're going to see how this plays out. But I'm I'm very very happy about this. So, went from thinking we were going to get absolutely slaughtered at market open to this, which I'm like, nice, nice. This feels better. I'll probably end up actually taking a little bit of cash out of that account, dropping it back to 5K and running it back up just because I know I want to overtrade with a lot of stuff on it, which I don't want to do. I don't want to overtrade. So, kind of where my brain is at right now. [sighs] Kind of where my brain is at right now. So, let's get back into this. So, talking about bonds, people that are unfamiliar with the bond market and how bonds trade, you have to be I don't know if I want to say cautious, optimistic, concerned, whatever you might want to say, but the reason that bonds dictate how the overall market goes, I like the seesaw analogy. It says, imagine the world of money like a giant seesaw on a playground. One side sits bonds, safe and boring, kid. The other side sits stocks and other risky stuff. The fun exciting kid. They take turns being up. You lend a $100 from the bank to the government. You wait. They keep it safe for a year and you get 104 back. That's the yield. A bond is like giving your piggy bank to someone. They promise I'll give you your money back later plus a little extra for being patient. That little extra is called the yield. Now, where the magic part, the cookie jar choice. Pretend you have a hundred and have to decide where to put it. There's two jars. The safe jar bonds. The risky jar stocks. When yields go up, the safe jar gets more tempting.

[00:32:15]You have a guaranteed $ five dollar. The risky jar gets less tempting, maybe 7%, but you could also lose money. So, the reason stocks get sad when yields go up.

[00:32:25]The safe jar wins the contest. If bonds pay 5% with zero risk, people sell their stocks and run to bonds. Less buying means stock prices fall. Borrowing money becomes expensive. Companies borrow money to grow. Higher yields equal higher loan costs. Smaller profits, lower stock prices. Future money is worth less today. A stock's price is based on profits in the future. Higher yield shrinks how much of those future dollars are worth now. So, you need yield to be low for us to get more excited and take some of those trades.

[00:32:57]Right? So, that's that's the long and short of this. That's the long and short of this. Basically, basically we need a situation at hand where we're able to take our money, put it somewhere safe, and not have to worry about the stock market, which is what bonds are, right?

[00:33:24]You can see it here. This is the best graphic. Safe are bonds. When the yield is 5%, you can get a guaranteed 5%. When it's 2%, that's wicked. That's so boring. Why would I want to trade at 2%.

[00:33:36]Truthfully, what value is there to trade at 2%. There isn't. So, you go to you go to you go to stocks. So, now as we continue to see that yield continue to rally as hard as it has been, that's what makes stocks continue to sell off. And that's what we've been seeing here is the 10-year Treasury is up to 4.5. The one month treasury is 3.6. 3.8 is the one year. So for in one year you're getting 3.8% back. Two year you're getting 4%. 10 year you're getting 4.5. In 30 year you're getting 5%. Over 30 years you're guaranteed 5% every year. That's not a bad deal. Like that's the reality of the situation.

[00:34:20]That's not a bad deal at all.

[00:34:24]Like that actually feels pretty good if I'm going to be completely honest.

[00:34:30]I would much rather I would much rather truthfully like it sounds crazy but if I could get that trade and just hang out I probably would take it. Like especially bro if you have a million dollars and you can get 5% back a year. What is 5% of a million? What is 5% 50k? 50k.

[00:34:54]Yeah. So, dude, for a 30 year, if you put two million to 30-year treasuries at 5%, you're making a $100,000 a year.

[00:35:01]That's a pretty damn good. Like, you don't have to work. At $2 million, you can make 100k a year just doing nothing.

[00:35:07]If you could survive on 100 bands a year doing nothing, why would you not do it?

[00:35:11]That's why treasuries at 5% are so good.

[00:35:14]And I'm not a big treasury guy. I think treasures are boring as [ __ ] but I like that trade.

[00:35:21]I like that trade when it's pretty pretty easy to do nothing, right? So, that's kind of where my head goes with a lot of that and why I'm like, okay, this makes sense why we're seeing some of this move. S&P down a tiny tiny bit right now at open Nvidia. So, that's the other thing. Nvidia earnings are this week. Nvidia earnings are going to be a big part. Sure. First, I just Yeah, I know. First, you just need two mil.

[00:35:42]Exactly. Sure. Like, I get it. But it's like that's why the super wealthy who are the ones pumping stocks and pumping risk on assets are going there. It's way better. Like just a way better situation. It's where they go. It's what it's why you take their money out of the market.

[00:35:57]So there are a couple other things that I've been closely monitoring here [snorts] that I've been closely closely monitoring. And kind of the main things, the main things that I've been closely trying to figure out are Nvidia earnings this week, Sailor buying more Bitcoin, which is pretty nuts. Uh $2 billion worth, and he bought the top again.

[00:36:19]Don't know if I want to trade Hyperlid right now just because of how hard it's been running. And I'm sort of I'm sort of in like a a tough spot. Like I like some of our plays, but I also almost want to cut a lot more stuff. Like I'm very tempted to get out of a lot of stuff here, which sounds crazy, but I don't really love where the market is kind of looking at the moment. The market has me a little bit more cautious.

[00:37:08]I want to take a look here at Leopold Ash Brener's F13 document. So, for those unfamiliar, the F-13 are the documents that these funds share where they disclose all of their holdings.

[00:37:24]And Leopold Ashbrunner has been the one that everybody was waiting for. Situational awareness is what it's called. So, this is what we got from situational awareness.

[00:37:37]what shares they bought, what they got rid of, and the overall market. So, did sell some Bloom Energy, sold his entire HUT ape position. TSCM sold, sold his calls, sold his BE call, no change. So, he sold some shares, booked some profit on BE, but kept the calls, added to AMD, added to SanDisk, added to TSM, added to MU, added to Nvidia.

[00:38:06]So when we look at this new positions can include TE Hive. So TE up 17%. Hive down 2%. Shaz up 5%. Intel up 2%. AMD up 2%. SMH down three. TSM TE is the crazy one. T1 Energy Inc. 661.

[00:38:26]Maybe we buy some calls and just tail him on this.

[00:38:32]T1 Energy. crazy gap up on this.

[00:38:37]I mean, I'm sure these are going to be really expensive call options. They're not.

[00:38:43]Why are they not that crazy?

[00:38:47]Let's look at June 18th call options.

[00:38:51]I'm like more surprised these are not that crazy. Hive is up 33. Is Hive really up 33%.

[00:38:59]Wow. Yeah. I'm curious why Hive rallies on plans for large scale AI uh they're building a comput facility.

[00:39:07]They're building a compute facility.

[00:39:09]Hive digital shares are trading higher Monday after the company announced it subsidiary Buzz. High performance computing is advancing plans for a major AI infra facility in the greater Toronto area with 320 megawatts. Hive shares are powering higher. Buzz advances planned AI gigafactory in the Toronto area. The planned industri. So they're going into the AI boom. Unsurprising. But I mean, dude, you could probably buy call options on TE and Hive.

[00:39:36]Hive at 35. I want to look at the monthlies on this. They're really cheap to buy one month out. Really cheap, but I want to see.

[00:39:50]Yeah, these are up 248%.

[00:39:53]Up 820% the $4.

[00:39:59][sighs and gasps] Uh, lot of bid size on these, too. I'm kind of tempted to buy into some of these, which might sound a little bit crazy, [snorts] but I feel like the thing with this Leopold situation is the man is either going to continue to gigaprint.

[00:40:17]He opened calls on MUT, TSM, and SanDisk. Exited EQT calls, BE calls, and ify puts were unchanged. He trimmed some break even, exited, LBTR, TSM, HUT. I'm curious if HUT is down astronomically on the back of this.

[00:40:34]Wow. Yeah, Hut's down 6%. So, a lot of these are down. Even Bloom is down, which is very surprising.

[00:40:43]That's really surprising to me.

[00:40:46]It's been pretty nuts to see how hard some of these are running, which I don't like love buying them here, but T1 is the one I'm more interested in because I like this chart.

[00:40:57]Like this is a good chart.

[00:41:01]It feels like it goes back to nine.

[00:41:06]June 18th, 65s.

[00:41:09]Lot of open interest.

[00:41:12]Bids at one ask is 140. If anything, I would buy these sevens, but you could also just buy the fives at one. It's probably two bucks you can probably get filled. There's some decent open interest on it.

[00:41:25]What are the Greeks on this?

[00:41:34]Oh man, am I tempted to buy some of these. But I also know it's probably not the right decision. I know it's not the right decision to buy those. That's the thing. I know it's not the right decision. Did you mention how you're feeling on WFI? So, I still like WFI White Fiber.

[00:41:50]Yeah, I had calls yesterday on it. Uh DGXX is my other one. Digi Power and WFI because I still like Cerebrris.

[00:42:01]Yeah, Cerebrris is still at $300 a share and having a 6% day today. Not bad at all. [snorts] I think this ends up pushing back up is the thing. I mean, you're in this like IPO situation, which is a little bit tough.

[00:42:16]Like, it is a little bit tough. So, I got What else did I get out of here? I just sold I still hold one service now. Or did I sell my service now? No, I still hold one service now. What did I Oh, I sold Zcaler. I just exited my Zcaler play, which I was fine with. I joined the nifty Discord in middle. You need a boda. It's now the Bodago's Discord, so you need that.

[00:42:44]Yeah. I mean, overall, man, I'm a little bit uh just kind of flat right now.

[00:42:49][snorts] I'm pretty cash allocated.

[00:42:51]5,800 on this 85. So, I'm sitting more cash than anything than we have been historically, right? Like 5,800 out of 5,800 divided by 8,300. We're sitting at 70% cash right now on this account. Oh, now service now officially up over 100%.

[00:43:11]What a [ __ ] call, man. M and W the two I'm up on. I don't want to hold too long, but they're they're showing, bro.

[00:43:22]Yeah. I mean, there's probably a pretty good chance on it. I'm I'm just in this weird boat right now that I like don't want to buy too much. Like, I would much rather kind of sit and wait seeing some of the base AI. The base AI on chain is crazy right now, bro. [snorts] Like, if you've been trading meme coins, Bass has been the place to be. Plain and simple.

[00:43:46]Bass has absolutely been the place to be. You can look at market caps for some of this stuff. Uh 24-hour top gainers.

[00:43:55]What are top virtuals is up, which is crazy. Uh Dolphin's been the craziest one, bro.

[00:44:05]This chart has been nuts. 189 million. I don't even know what Dolphin does. But the timeline's been loving this thing, man. If you hold any crypto, do you stake? I hold a bunch of crypto. I hold a bunch of Salana still. I own a bunch of Hyperlid. Oh, they made VVV. Dolph did. I did not know that. But if you're trading AI right now, base AI coins are going absolutely nuts. VVV absolutely ripping.

[00:44:33]Absolutely ripping DM. Absolutely ripping.

[00:44:40]Absolutely ripping.

[00:44:42]DM VVV Dolph. I don't know enough about some of these other ones. I want to spend some time. How is Anon doing? This is one that's always been the Hey Anon coin. This one's always been interesting to me. Wow, it's down bad. This is surprising to me. This one's really surprising to me. I would have thought that hey Anon would have been doing better just because that they've been so hard into a lot of the price action there like they've been so strong. Dolphins is the uncensored version of VVV. Isn't that the Danny guy? Yeah, it is Danny.

[00:45:13][snorts] Aeon. I don't know what Aeon is.

[00:45:17]Wow. Another one just parabolic. 11.4 mil. What is this?

[00:45:28]What is it?

[00:45:32]The most autonomous agent framework.

[00:45:34]Give it a direction to leverage 117 skills like deep research, PR reviews, market monitoring, versel deploys, and more to get it done. No approval loops, no babysitting, configure once, forget forever. Oh, so it's this is like a completely autonomous thing. It's like Hermes. Yeah, this is going to go higher.

[00:45:51]If I'm buying something, this goes higher.

[00:45:54]>> [snorts] >> It's at 11 mil.

[00:46:01]This is at 663.

[00:46:03]In my opinion, AON is a no-brainer play.

[00:46:06]If this gets any form of adoption, this goes so much higher. It's 11.5 mil.

[00:46:15]11.5.

[00:46:17]Yeah. I mean, it's tough to get entries.

[00:46:19]That's That's the truth. But dude, look at that. like 11.5 mil on this.

[00:46:26]I'm way more interested in buying that.

[00:46:30]Way more interested at [snorts] 11.5 for a fully autonomous agent.

[00:46:39]That just feels like a much better play to me across the entire board cuz look at this. So Claude Code, that's what I've used. Hermes but fragile. Open claw runs but waits. Aon configure and forget it. 117 skills. So AI framework watch article deep research digest dev and code crypto and markets meta and agents productivity. This thing's got 117 skills built in. All pre-built. You can pick what you I'm not I'm shocked I've never heard of this because this feels good.

[00:47:17]>> [snorts] >> How much does this cost to use?

[00:47:51]Yeah, I I think this is like one of the best AI plays. I run agents. Yeah, I do run agents. I run OpenClaw with Claude Code uh and Codeex or whatever the [ __ ] the chat GBT1 is. I run Chad GBT's newest model and then I run uh Sonnet 46 out of Claude because I don't want to use the newest one. But I'm like way more interested in this.

[00:48:18]Way more interested in this.

[00:48:26]How much does it cost?

[00:48:31]Oh, so it uses anthropic. Okay.

[00:48:37]It uses anthropic.

[00:48:55]I think I think AON goes to 100 mil. I think this goes 10x from here. It sounds nuts, but if this is as legit as it sounds, I'm going to mess with it today. If this is legit is as legit as the GitHub looks, then this is so undervalued because it's like Hermes but better.

[00:49:19]It's like open but better and it's pre-built out the box.

[00:49:25]See, I like finding stuff on stream with you guys. I like finding stuff. We find opportunities. This one feels like an opportunity to me. It really feels like an opportunity to me.

[00:49:39]Oh my gosh. Service Now just gigascending.

[00:49:44]Yeah, I'm euphoric on Service Now. I'm closing out my Service Now calls, chat.

[00:49:48]Closing out of my Service Now calls.

[00:49:52]Completely closing out of Service Now calls.

[00:49:56]Uh uh uh.

[00:49:59]And we're out.

[00:50:01]We are totally totally out. Sounds like a knockoff to make crypto profits on.

[00:50:06]Maybe. But dude, I think the fully autonomous aspect is really good. Yeah, I want to. So, chat, before we get too into it, I want to try the agent to see how well it works. But the fact that it's 117 preconfigured skills out of the box, runs completely autonomously. You don't need to constantly check in on it, and it has self-healing heartbeat and soul docks, I'm like very I'm I'm definitely interested in it.

[00:50:27]definitely definitely interested in it because if it works how it's described then it's going to be really good. If it doesn't work as described then it's not going to be good. It's like pretty simple. Pretty pretty simple.

[00:50:57]I'm about to sneeze, chat.

[00:51:04][snorts] We Okay, so that's that's a little bit about what I'm looking at on base, right? [snorts] So, continuing down, Hermes OS is another base coin, but I think it's just hosting. Yeah, I'm not interested in the hosting side of it.

[00:51:29]When look to cut LMT, I'm going to hold LMT still. I mean, Wolfie, I'm looking at it. We're down 38%. We're We're up today. I would rather hold that. I don't mind holding LMT personally. Like if we look here, we're up on that now. DGX is coming back. We're still red on a few things. Crisp is smoked. Like this one.

[00:51:49]I don't even I'm just going to let that expire. Worthless. Expires on Friday.

[00:51:53]Hood is the one I'm closely watching only because we have tight deadlines on these. I'm going to be seeing how the day trades. I'll post if I sell them today. Um but we are we are rallying back up. 662% on the day, almost back above 9K. Like I said, I'm shocked because I thought we would open up down today and I sold my last Service Now call for 120%. So, made 40% in over a week. Just closed DGX on Cerebrus IPO. Nice trade. I like that trade. That was a good trade. [snorts] Um, but Hood's actually rallying back, which I'm fine with. You must have averaged down on LMT. I did. I bought more on LMT. I should have probably should have shared that. I apologize.

[00:52:33]Uh, I ended up buying more. I had to. I was like, I don't like how this is trading. So, I still like it. Nice trade on NW. Yeah. [snorts] I like Service Now. I like the Service Now trade. That was one I was pretty early on. I was like, dude, I think this feels good. I think that one feels good. So, I mean, if we're going to Dude, I'm like, how are we feeling about mega at the moment?

[00:52:56]Uh, I haven't really looked at it. I like how you stay grounded. I sold mine now also because listening to you help me just take that profit. That's the thing. I'm not looking for like a home run trade every time. Bro, it did 120%.

[00:53:06]Like, that's crazy. Even if I got 40%, I would have been happy. Bitcoin investors are just waiting for their 87 cents. Uh I don't know. [snorts] I don't know. Um wow. Yeah, we're actually kind of doing We're back above 9K on the account. That feels good. I would love to get back above 10K in just the same day. That would be euphoric. But I don't want to add too much right now. I mean, dude, the thing is the spook overnight, it rattled me. NASDAQ was down a percent overnight. S&P was down half a percent and it opened green today. So, I'm like a little bit more cautious on some of that stuff where I don't want to like Yeah, Service Now absolutely sending, dude. A lot of our stuff is in the green. Even Hood's up 2.77% today. I I still think Robin Hood's going to end up that call will end up in the green. Uh I'm still on ARM. LMT up 1% today. I still really like this chart. That's why I don't mind holding this. I still think the LMT chart looks really freaking good to make that move up towards this high, this 538 area, which would be great for our calls at 535.

[00:54:11]QS is another one. I'm sitting on it.

[00:54:13]I'm down 35%.

[00:54:16][snorts] Like, we could just go through clean house, but I don't want to. I don't want to. I'm not I'm not in that moment just yet. I still feel pretty good overall in the whole market. I want to go back and take another look at Leopold stuff, uh, Leopold Asher stuff because there's a couple things in there that I did not fully take a look at. So, we have on this he position. So, TE and Hive. Hive is interesting because like dude, it's so cheap. It's so cheap. I want to buy it.

[00:54:54]Uh, are there any Leupold positions that you're still holding that he sold? So, I'm still an iron, but so is he. Uh, Hut 8 is one I still like. I was surprised to see that he sold that cuz I still like Hut.

[00:55:08]I do still like Hut.

[00:55:11]It's only It's down 3% today after a gap up. I mean, it's not surprising considering he bought it in the 50s. So, him selling it over near 100 is not surprising. Like, that's a 2x on stock size. You have to take profit on that.

[00:55:24]You have to take Dude, it's stocks.

[00:55:26]Like, take profit where you can get it.

[00:55:28]I'm not surprised at all. I'm not surprised. But looking at some of this stuff, some of the other stuff he added, the Nvidia ad into earnings was interesting to watch, which makes me almost want to long their earnings. You have Nvidia earnings on Wednesday and I do think Nvidia is going to do well, but watching him add into earnings, I saw a couple price targets move it to 300. I think Nvidia ends up shattering their earnings, which will end up doing fairly well across the board. But with earnings, obviously, you have implied volatility. You have all this other stuff where they're probably pricing at a 5% move. 5% on this is you're looking at about a $40 move. which would put it towards 260 on the upside or 180 on the downside. So, I just have some caution when it comes to me speed running to buy more stuff right now where I'm just not too interested in deploying a ton. Right. He also had puts on the video. Yeah, he's basically hedging. He's hedging some of those puts.

[00:56:37]Yeah, he bought puts on Oracle, AMD.

[00:56:42]I don't know.

[00:56:44][snorts] I don't know cuz this is a good article on some of the puts right here. Leopold released his 13F and he had puts in SMH, Nvidia, Oracle, AVGO, AMD, MUT, TSM bro turned into Michael Barry. However, the fact that he was in these positions on March 31st means that the following rally over the next 6 weeks absolutely destroyed him. What is happening to Leopold or what does he think is happening? The thing with puts is you can take them as a hedge, right? You can buy these as hedging opportunities because if you own a lot of these shares, then all this means is that if they drop, you have the right to sell your shares. So, it's a way that people buy puts to lock in some profit. So, that to me is like not an illogical play on his part. I think it's actually a pretty smart move when you're up a ton.

[00:57:39]>> [snorts] >> just made a cool 200 on F on. Damn, nice. Is RKLB pumping still? Wow, gnarly sell off on it. This thing was up to 140. I actually like RKLB.

[00:57:54]I would honestly probably long RKLB to be honest. I don't hate the play.

[00:58:00]I do not hate RKLB.

[00:58:03]I'm just Yeah, we got an absolute rip on service now. What a beautiful trade, man. That one makes me happy. I also am very happy Hood is putting in a great green candle today.

[00:58:16]We're bouncing [snorts] back on some of this stuff. Up 754 on the day. Not mad about it.

[00:58:26]LMT is going to be the one I'm closely watching. I'd love DGX to go up. We'll see if Hood moves. QS crisper therapeutics dead. What else do we have today? What else do we have today?

[00:58:38]Looking at the agenda today.

[00:58:41]Yeah, I actually want to see. So, how does Nvidia trade on historical earnings because this is the big this is the big market this week.

[00:58:53]This is the big market. Here's how Nvidia has historically performed after earnings. For Nvidia investors, the first move after earnings has historically only been part of the story. Buying the stock just before quarterly results has produced modest short-term gains, but the longerterm picture has been much stronger. This chart shows the difference clearly. One day, one week, so a week up 3%. Since 2016, Nvidia's post- earning returns have been positive across every holding period study, but the edge has been far more modest over the next day, week, or month than over a quarter or a year. The median gain has only been.3% after 1 day, 33 after a week, point4 after a month. That rises to 11% over one quarter, and 876 over one year. It helps frame what traders are up against heading into the report. Options are pricing in a 6% post earnings move, well above their typical daily range over the prior quarter, but it's also close to what the stock has already shown it can do around earnings based on its most recent setup. Earnings volatility in Nvidia is real and very much part of the stock's playbook. The problem for short-term traders that even when Nvidia delivers the big swing they want, the first reaction has been unpredictable.

[00:59:57]So, hear me out. I [snorts] think I'm going to buy Nvidia calls.

[01:00:02]I'm going to buy Nvidia calls.

[01:00:05]This might sound a little bit crazy.

[01:00:06]Nvidia is now down on the day, but I actually think Nvidia beats on earnings and they just got the deal with China that I like. So, I'd be looking at June 18 Nvidia calls.

[01:00:24]Can I get like uh some that are actually in the [ __ ] money? There we go. Oh man, I do not love that.

[01:00:33][sighs] Truthfully, if I'm buying these, I want to see what the open interest is because there's probably a lot. Yeah, there is.

[01:00:41]So, if I'm buying these June 18th, June 18th, I kind of like the 240s.

[01:00:59]I'm going to start by buying one of these at 745.

[01:01:12]Yeah, I'm gonna buy this Nvidia 240C for June 18.

[01:01:25]I I like that play. It might sound a little bit crazy, but the reason I like it is the deal with China I like the deal with China. I think that because they got this this trade deal going on and they've approved them to buy the H100 chips, forward guidance should be decent. And I do think that they beat earnings again. So, as long as the whole market doesn't [ __ ] the bed, then I do think that the Nvidia play is going to be decent. We're fully out of service now.

[01:02:05]>> [snorts] >> I don't mind buying on a red day. So, I actually don't mind buying here because if you can fill this gap above, I do not mind buying this. And I'd probably set my stops around there. We're looking at 231. My stops would be this previous high. So, if Nvidia drops all the way down to 216, I'll cut it. But, I do think that we have a positive return with earnings.

[01:02:28]So, it's a little bit more cautious of a trade personally. Um, I know it's a little bit expensive, but like I said, I do like the play here. I do like the play. We're down a tiny tiny bit. Not much, but that's I think that's why I'm like more confident in making that trade. We have earnings. It's a month out, exactly a month, and we're near the money. So, $16, a 6% move. What is 6% from current prices?

[01:02:57]6% would put us at 237. So, yeah, I I like this trade. I do like this trade. I think that we can end up getting there, which is why I'm I'm definitely more optimistic on it. So, we'll hold that.

[01:03:10]Especially with earnings on Wednesday. I think we could even see a run up into earnings, which if we get a run up into earnings, I'm perfectly fine holding it through that. Like, perfectly fine holding it through that. And maybe we get a pump today and it pumps to nine bucks and then we just sell it today.

[01:03:24]So, that would be great. We'll see though. Overall, some decent finds on stream today. I like AON on base. I'm still holding a lot of my call options.

[01:03:34]I may clear out some of the book today.

[01:03:36]Like ARM, I'm not not loving how ARM is trading at the moment. Uh LMT's down 50% at the moment. I still like it, but we'll have to see.

[01:03:50]Yeah, it's it's a tough market to trade at the moment. Just once again, if we look at majors on crypto, Bitcoin is now down a full percent.

[01:03:59]S&P is flat. So, we may actually get this red day today.

[01:04:05]Yeah. Here's actually what we're going to do. This may be dumb, but I'm going to actually close some of my positions today.

[01:04:14]We're going to close DGXX.

[01:04:19]I just listed those. We'll see if it gets filled.

[01:04:22]Listed DGX to close.

[01:04:26]I'm going to probably close this ARM trade. I don't love it here.

[01:04:30]We'll list it at 0 75.

[01:04:33]Sell that. See if we can get a couple closes on some of this stuff. Um QS, I still like QS. It's June 5th, but I don't love how down it is at the moment.

[01:04:44]23.

[01:04:47]I just want to clean out some positions.

[01:04:50]Yeah. So, QS just sold.

[01:04:53]I'm cleaning out some I'm cleaning out some of this. QS just sold.

[01:04:57]What else just sold? QS ARM just sold.

[01:05:01]So, we're out of both of those just for now. I'll I'll re-enter if I QS DGX. Oh, oops.

[01:05:10]Uh, ARM is out. DGXX. We're still in DGXX, I think. Yeah, still in DGXX. We have a sell on it, but yeah, I don't mind getting a little bit more cash in the account right now.

[01:05:24]So, QS is out. We're We're dropping some of our exposure at the moment. Dropping a little bit of the exposure.

[01:05:36]I'm I'm content with that. I'm content with that. I think just reallocating some of this is going to be probably the better move across the board. It's just we had a lot of call exposure and overall the market I don't love. Like we're now we're now 70 66% cash which I'm fine with. Like I would rather still have some call exposure. Uh I hold Drram shares on my equities account like my full brokerage. This is just an options trading account that we do on stream.

[01:06:03]Yeah, LMT is just kicking our ass, dude.

[01:06:07]I still like it, but man, it does not want to go green. Loheed Martin does not want to go green.

[01:06:17]Chrisper Therapeutics basically dead at 60.

[01:06:21]This thing's all the way down to 50.

[01:06:23]Yeah. and it broke under. Crisper's dead. That's a zero.

[01:06:27][snorts] But yeah, I don't mind where some of these orders are. DGX is one of the ones. Uh order history still waiting. We have them at 0.95. If they get filled, they get filled. If they don't, they don't. We'll take a 50% haircut on it.

[01:06:43]And just kind of ride out some of the rest of these. That's That's kind of where my brain is. I don't I think reallocating the portfolio makes a lot of sense today. I think it makes a lot of sense. And that way we can readjust and start to find some other opportunities. Especially if we can start buying puts on a downtrend, then I feel a little bit better about trading a lot of this. I still look at the oil chart, which right now looking at oil, yeah, oil's still over 100. Still over a hundred a barrel. So I'm not I'm not thinking we're out of the woods just yet. There's still a lot of things here that I'm uh a little bit nervous on.

[01:07:22]a little bit nervous on right now that I think it's okay being cautious across the board. Trying to see if we have any articles to just react to before we wrap here in the next few minutes.

[01:07:36]Trump on Intel, are you sitting in NBS andBE? I have shares of [snorts] NBIS andBE and Iron and Terra Wolf.

[01:07:47]Yeah, overall that's kind of the main the main part of the market right now. I think right now it's better to be cautious and a little bit more hesitant on some of this stuff where we can find our spots, pick some positions, and make some trades versus swing for the fences where we don't really need to, you know, but overall that's that's kind of where my brain is. So that's going to do it today. Tomorrow we have Crypto Cleo on.

[01:08:11]I'm wicked excited to talk crypto with him. He charts a lot, shares a lot of thoughts, does a ton of things here that I'm excited about. So very eager to get on with him. We made some trades today, found some opportunity. I really like this AON play. I'm going to get some exposure to that today. See where we can go. And uh overall feels good. Feels good. But listen, let's make some money.

[01:08:30]We back again at 9:00 a.m.