Crypto’s Path to the Moon, How Bitcoin, XRP Price Chart and Altcoin Market Can Excel in Equity Setup

Added: 2026-05-12

[00:00:13]Hey, what's going on everybody? This is the Blockchain Backer bringing you the latest cryptocurrency news and analysis.

[00:00:22]Today we'll be looking over here at the Bitcoin price chart along with the XRP price chart which is starting to squeak its way through the 50-day and the 100day moving average as Bitcoin is bucking up against the 200day moving average while we enter into a new week as we have record high weekly closes from last week on the S&P 500, the NASDAQ and the Russell 2000. And so while the crypto market and Bitcoin have all acted like historical capitulations are far beyond us like back on February 5th, we of course know we're just kind of stuck in these types of environments of kind of guessing how is this bottom going to work itself out when we've really done this exact same thing every single cycle whether it's 2014 and 15, 2018, 2022. We always dip down here into these oversold conditions on the larger time frames like the weekly time frame.

[00:01:08]we start to build somewhat of a recovery in here, but all of these bottoms tend to look a little bit different than each other. And that story has been reiterated over and over again, and we're still just kind of having to wait to see how this bottom's going to turn itself out. But I wanted to dive into something a little bit deeper and actually talk more about this macro picture because I think it's really important for anybody's thesis out there on what do they think is happening with the equity markets. Why the last crypto cycle was so weak. Was there a fingerprint left on the market by the macro picture at the same time? As you know, it was very bizarre to see what gold and silver absolutely rampaging in this environment, especially silver breaking through a 45-year high, right?

[00:01:47]Was that something new to happen in here? or is there some type of macro fingerprint being left behind telling us that this time is different. The most dangerous word any retail investor can say? Now, my argument is it is very different, but far different from the this time is different from a typical retail investor who refuses to sell the top or refuses to buy a bottom. But it's that the data actually shows that it's been very different. And that's why in 2023 through 2026, I think people were very confused on what was happening with markets and why we didn't really rampage like we've historically seen. I think a lot of it comes down to what's going on with the Russell and what's going on with the S&P 500. So, I'm going to try to make this video as fast as I possibly can by including as much information as I can at the exact same time. But I'm going to present, you know, what my theory is on macro versus the crypto market. I get asked oftent times in markets in the morning, do you still think we're producing a bubble in the US stock market? Do you think it's eventually going to pop and be a multi-year bare market? And my answer is always yes, absolutely. And so then the question after that is always, well, you know, how does crypto react during that, right? And we all have to theorize about it because even the last cycle was very different because there was no breadth in macro markets. We saw there was no breadth in crypto, but there was also no breadth in macro markets. That all of the midcaps and the small caps of the US stock market got stuck. While things like the S&P 500 had no problem breaking out, the NASDAQ had no problem breaking out and the Dow Jones had no problem breaking out. But we go back in time and look at it through this lens and have to recall that all the way up until September of last year, you had all the major indexes continuing to march into brand new all-time highs. Yet, the midcaps and small caps were still stuck in the exact same range they had been in since late 2020. Something was different about this market because in all past cycles, they all broke out together, including that Russell 2000 escaping with the S&P, NASDAQ, and Dow like back here in late 2020 heading into 2021 when Bitcoin breaks out and goes flying upon this breakout of all the major indexes including the Russell. That was also true back in late 2016. As we headed into 2017, all the indexes escaped together after being rangebound together since late 2013. Heading into 2017, they escape. And along goes Bitcoin with it.

[00:04:04]Let me adjust these colors. Here we go.

[00:04:05]We'll put Bitcoin in black. But as you can see, Bitcoin stays rangebound in a bare market from right late 2013 all the way till we get to 2017. They all escape together and along goes Bitcoin with it.

[00:04:16]That's also true after the great financial crisis, right? It peaks over here in late 2007. Great financial crisis. Bitcoin is born in here. Notice they all go escaping into the new highs over here and off and away Bitcoin goes with it. But this time was very difficult cuz here we are in September of 2025. And while the major indexes all escaped, the Russell 2000, the small caps, the midcaps did not follow along.

[00:04:40]This was discussed in detail constantly throughout 2023, 2024, and 2025 that this time is different compared to what we've seen in every past crypto bull market where there's an expansion and an opening of breadth in major indexes. And surprise, surprise, the altcoin market was never able to escape with it either.

[00:04:59]Still getting stuck underneath that November of 2021 high. And then as we all know there in September and October, play ourselves forward here a little bit. And what ended up happening still the Russell was unable to get out and crypto went collapsing with it right ever since there in October. This has been a stark difference to every single past cycle that we've seen where the Russell 2000 does not climb up here to get with the rest of the indexes go into expansion and then crypto be able to do the exact same thing. There's practically the theme of my channel from 2023 through 2025 is that there's an absence of breadth. But what people don't spend a lot of time thinking about is why, you know, create all the different excuses in their head, right?

[00:05:41]You know, Fed, you know, with the rates and oh, it's just because there was too much money flushed in the system in the past or could there be an actual technical explanation to it of what is occurring in macro markets on why something like that would occur? And my theoretical explanation for it is that we have been producing a bubble in the United States stock market. And typically when we go into the final legs of the actual bubble, we see a collapse of breadth happen. We actually saw this happen in the cryptocurrency market back in 2017 as Bitcoin ran from about $7,000 all the way to $17,000 that you would think the crypto market would do very well in here as Bitcoin is just absolutely rampaging to the upside.

[00:06:24]However, during this time period, the crypto market was actually quite dead.

[00:06:29]Nothing happened in here in crypto while this huge rampage in Bitcoin took place.

[00:06:34]If I actually overlay the XRP price chart on top of there, you can kind of see that in there that take the altcoin market off during Bitcoin's massive rampage. XRP really went down during that time. While people reflect back on 2017 and say it was totally epic, which it was, oftent times the part that is missed was this period where we ran from like $5,000, $7,000 all the way up to 17 where the crypto market was essentially dead except for Bitcoin. It all flew into the major. So over the last couple of years, you may have heard me talk about the rotating equity top theory.

[00:07:08]And the premise of this idea is that we are producing a bubble in the United States stock market. And what we've seen is all the capital flow into the majors, right? Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Google, right? It's been the MAG7 show when there's been an absence of Brett throughout the United States stock market. Yet, the bubble has raged on in the S&P, the NASDAQ, the Dow, while the cryptocurrency market like Total 2 here is still stuck in that range from 2021 to 2022. We're still stuck in here when typically we escape on every single expansion in the United States stock market. We're stuck in here. So, how do you explain away that we're still stuck and remain stuck while major indexes continued on? Well, we have to look over here what's happening with the breadth of the United States stock market, right? Midcaps and small caps all remained stuck at the exact same time.

[00:08:00]It became an extreme consolidation into the large caps and the large indexes.

[00:08:04]And when do we ever have a bull market that is still continuing to rampage on yet the breadth completely collapses on itself and it all goes into the majors?

[00:08:14]Typically that occurs in bubble phases like this where there is the major rampage of the bubble of the major while the midcap breadth small cap breadth is utterly annihilated at the exact same time or like we saw over here with total 2 where we just didn't have anything going on with the altcoin market while Bitcoin completely rampaged. In my opinion, that is the best explanation of why the Brett failed to open in 2025.

[00:08:39]That's not a new theory. That's something I've written about a dozen times in newsletters and in YouTube videos. And it doesn't do us any good really to look back into hindsight, but it does a good thing to set the foundation in the stage on why it was different last cycle. And how we commented how it was so different and how people were looking for the same thing to always occur, especially looking at Q4 of 2017 when saying, hey, look, we're not in Q4 of 2017. But I think where we are right now is to set the stage to say, are we about to see the blowoff top happen in the equity market? And if so, what could that mean for midcaps, small caps, rotating top theories, the equity market correlation to the crypto market? Will the crypto market get to experience that opening of bread? And frankly, I think that has to kind of be the theory at this point for the bulls because once again, what are you experiencing? We're experiencing another new breakout for the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. And isn't is crypto in a new all-time high? No. Right? It's like bottom building out a bare market. And yet here this is continuing to march higher without some expansion taking crypto at the exact same time. And so I spend a lot of time thinking about these things. If it was just as simple as every time the stock market breaks out, we break out. Every time the stock market crashes, we we crash. Then life would be easy. And frankly, that's what it was during the 2013, 2017, and 2021 bull runs. They were all that simple.

[00:10:03]Equities all escaped together. Crypto escapes at the exact same time. But then things got very different in 2023, 2024, 2025. And so what I present to you is the theory that we are probably working on the blowoff top right now of the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. But we do at least have a blueprint to see what happens for small caps and midcaps in that type of environment. Because what we do see is that once we got beyond that and we actually went into just the blowoff in here, we did start to see small caps and midcaps in the crypto market start to move. whenever we went pushing for the actual blowoff top to happen in here.

[00:10:39]And so while the Russell had been stuck in here from 2021 all the way to September and October of 2025, what we obviously do see now is that we are starting to get an expansion to happen over here in the Russell 2000 as it's taking out that 2021 high after back testing it and now setting new highs. A complete collapsing of breadth happening in here during the parabolic rise of the large cap. Then during the final blowoff, we start to finally see midcaps and small caps start to wake up, which is what we are now starting to see over here in the US stock market. And this has been the rotating equity top theory.

[00:11:15]We have been stuck from 2021 all the way until late 2025. And now we're finally starting to get some movement out of here. And so where does that place you within a bubble for the S&P 500? Well, it technically places us in our actual literal blowoff top happening in here.

[00:11:31]you know, whether that'll go to 8,000 or how high that will go. That the range is all throughout here. And here we have our double tap on top of the all-time high or double tap on top of the all-time high. Our violent back test into the bull flag, violent back test into the bull flag, V bottom. Then we have one, two, three, four, and five.

[00:11:54]And we have one, two, three, four, and five. and that this moment right here is essentially right in here before we go pushing for that blowoff top. And that in both environments, we experience a complete collapse of breadth all throughout here, especially into that wave three. But now, as we're making our final push here, we are starting to see the breadth wake up throughout the markets in that final push as we do in this bubble example as we now have the Russell starting to bust out of here as we're making that push on the S&P as we did for, you know, crypto and Bitcoin back in 2017. And so I know it's hard to wrap your head around this big picture when you know we've all been kind of programmed with things for you know the last 15 years that it's like all right expansions happen crypto follows expansions happen crypto follows and then something bizarre happens in 2022 through 2025 where there's no breadth in the United States stock market the altcoin market gets stuck still within this 2022 through 2025 range not following along with this huge bubble being printed over here in stocks when typically we do right so I have to find a way to tell myself, all right, look, is there some type of bullish thesis here for the cryptocurrency market or is this thing going to eventually pop and we're totally doomed, right? And I have to go back and rebuild the whole picture like we've just done in this video to say, well, why was there a huge absence of breadth? What typically happens when there's a big bubble that's being presented and it's consolidated into all the major caps. What typically happens is that thing concludes? Well, typically as we get right here to the very end, that's when the breath finally starts to open. Then there's actually a big pop that comes in the majors. So we're talking like this thing eventually just absolutely getting decimated over in here on the majors. But even in the event of that decimation happening and that bubble popping in here, it's still not impacting the midcaps very much and still they continue to march even higher afterwards. So when people ask, you know, hey, how do you think it's going to play out? You know, obviously I have to theorize because we're very different from any market we've historically had in crypto. And the best analogy I can draw to what's happening where we've had an absence of breadth through 2023 through 2025. The majors still continue to push on. We're creating the appearances of bubbles and then now we're finally starting to see bread open over there in the Russell. The rotating top equity theory we've talked about for years. It's playing out. And if it's to continue to play out, this is really what you would end up seeing is that we would end up seeing a pop come over here in the S&P 500, the Dow, the NASDAQ.

[00:14:25]However, we wouldn't see a major pop happen for midcaps and small caps. And then we'd spend a few years ranging in here for the big caps as they try to build a retracement. Yet, the midcaps and small caps capture the rotation as people have given up on those big names.

[00:14:43]and that with a rotation out of the consolidation and collapse to breadth and an opening of breadth throughout markets and a continuation of the Russell 2000 to be able to march on and the IGV or iShares expanded tech software sector ETF that this would benefit the crypto market moving forward now what I don't have a bullish thesis for is what happens after that right what happens to the crypto market in the event of four years from now or however long it is that within the next 6 months or whatever if we end up pulling one of these things in here and then spend a couple of years working on some type of retracement. You know, what are my thoughts for, you know, 2030, 2031 in the event of something like that happen?

[00:15:19]I don't know. That's too far out from now to think about that. I have to be kind of locked into the moment of what is the future look like theoretically in the coming years. And what thesis can I present outside of just hoping and and speculating, you know, all the money is going to flow through something or anything like that. And I have to try to really force a macro picture that makes absolute sense and the one that makes the most sense of why Brett collapsed over the last 5 years. Why the market never opened, why crypto is still stuck in the 2021 through 2023 range of the US stock market still to this day is that it's a consolidation of breath, the rotating equity top. We're going into the blowoff top of the S&P. I don't know what number it's going to stop at, but we're finally seeing the breath start to open in markets where you would expect for it to start opening in markets as it's going into its blowoff. But even if the S&P, Dow, and NASDAQ go into a very nasty pop from the top, yes, we would likely see some type of correction come from midcaps and small caps, but it would be much more minimal compared to what we see in the major caps. And then there would still be a continuation higher as the breadth actually legitimately opens in markets. the story is no longer Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Google and the story is everybody and that in an everybody expansion breadth opening in markets that's much more beneficial to the crypto market historically and I think we should all know that at this point if not it has been and so I am optimistic of the future. I think we've seen some positive things happen here on IGV. We're starting to march our way up. If you don't know, this has been the one we've really been correlated to rather than the Russell 2000 over the last couple of years. But I still think it's just due to a collapsing breadth environment.

[00:16:58]Yet, we're finally producing conditions that can become more favorable. And I think it's going to be difficult for anybody trying to use past formulas without having a thesis of what is actually happening in markets. And my thesis of what is actually happening in markets is we're producing the actual bubble for the US stock market. And what happens in bubbles when we get to tops?

[00:17:16]what we all think, well, everything should just rampage together if it's a bubble. But we know that's not necessarily true. We can produce the majority of the bubble and there be a complete collapse in breath and the rest of the market doesn't participate in that type of environment. However, when we get to producing the actual top in here, we can actually see the breadth start to open and that has been the rotating equity top theory for the last several years. But even in the event of the pop, it doesn't necessarily mean you see something major happen over in here for the midcaps and small caps, but that they can still continue to perform after the attention shifts away from Nvidia, Google, Microsoft, Apple, etc. So, I come to you to say I do think we are in the blowoff top of the equity market right now, at least for the major indexes. That should be nerve-wracking for people who are probably consolidated into the major names that have performed so well for the last several years.

[00:18:09]That's probably not something people would want to hear. However, I've tried to build my case on saying, "Hey, look, this is why, at least for the crypto market, there's a little bit of a glimmer of hope, a glimmer of optimism of trying to understand why did breadth collapse so poorly in 2023 through 2025.

[00:18:24]What do we see happening in equity markets now? is that we start seeing breath opening in a phase of a market where we would expect to start seeing it in the actual blowoff as it's being produced in here that we're finally starting to see it over here in the Russell as we're producing a blowoff.

[00:18:39]And that yes, we are talking about the pop of the major indexes happening. But when those pops happen, there's typically a lot of misallocated capital that's consolidated into these major names and they finally start to spread it all out once they finally say, "Wait a minute, the writing's in the wall.

[00:18:54]That trade is done. Now we've got to go bonkers and spread it out everywhere.

[00:18:57]And so when I look at the crypto market and I'm building my theory and it may sound weird that I'm talking about, you know, a bubble pop happening in the stock market, it's because of the anatomy of bubble pops. What happens with capital and rotations? What happens when there's a breadth collapsing as we head into the actual blowoff and what happens after that breadth does collapse is that typically it does open wide up.

[00:19:17]Typically we do see the actual pop happen in the market, but then markets still continue to rampage. at least the smaller caps and the midcaps continue to rampage while the major trade is done of consolidation into major caps. And so that of course begs the question, well, you know, we're looking at moving averages, we're seeing Bitcoin buck up against these moving averages, you know, at what point does that all happen? I I'm not sure if, you know, we see Bitcoin, you know, shift its way back up and then, you know, then we see the pop of the S&P and then we rampage on that.

[00:19:47]It's going to be an environment we haven't seen before. We're going to have to wait for things to get a little bit more clear for that to happen. Right now, the S&P is absolutely rampaging.

[00:19:54]And I I talked about this in my last video. You know, if you're one step ahead, you look like a genius. If you're two steps ahead, you look like you're insane. But I'm always trying to think two steps ahead and trying to draw the big picture of what's going on in markets. Why are things acting the way that they are? Why did the market act like this during 2022 and make logical sense out of it? Outside of trying to be some Fed expert and say, "Oh, it's because the Fed cup rates elevated."

[00:20:17]Maybe so. But good luck implementing that into any actionable information.

[00:20:23]This is a theory I've had for I don't want to pull out of my backside, but I I think 2 to 3 years. This is why we are seeing this. And where we would be right now is in the actual blowoff, which is where you would expect to see Bretts to start opening. And we are starting to see it open over in here. So that obviously doesn't answer your question of when do we leave the desert crossing, when do things start moving their way up. But it answers the question on saying, you know, do does it seem likely that we or at least there's a theory. Is there a route? Is there a way to get there for the crypto market to recover and continue higher if there's some type of opening of breadth in the United States stock market? There's, you know, a risk on environment if people who are willing to throw money into smaller caps and midcaps. And I do see the path to get there and that path has been outlined for the last couple of years.

[00:21:05]And the question is, is that path still viable? And my thoughts are yes. And I think we're seeing the early signs of it showing up right now. So I think it's important and responsible for anybody who has a bullish outlook or a theory that they think the market can rampage and have like a realistic look at the same time of what has happened in this market over the last couple of years and explain it away rather than just like excusing it away as an abnormality. This is not a new topic for us to talk about.

[00:21:31]It's a topic that's been discussed in detail in many newsletters, videos, and live streams over the years. And it does appear to be playing out. And so I've tried to take this video and express that to show, look, it does still look good. This is what we would expect and here's my exact thought process on how we get there. You can agree with it, you can disagree with it, but I've tried to outline it for you and explain it to you on why I've thought the way I have for the last couple of years, how we're looking now, and at least provide some type of justification on why I do think there's still a positive outlook for the cryptocurrency market. I don't know what's going to happen, you know, well after retracements and and blowoffs and things like that and what the outlook is like for, you know, 20 years or something like that, but you know, for the couple of years ahead or or however much time it takes, I can see a positive path and I've tried to outline that for you. So, I hope you enjoyed that. And I know it's a a difference from just constantly looking directly at every single indicator on the crypto market right now, but I think there has to be this broader look and explanation for what's happening in equity markets and why the crypto market was so weak during the 2025 cycle, right? And and this is the logical explanation to me. So, I'll kind of refer people back to this when they ask questions on those types of things to explain it. But I hope that you enjoyed it. And you know, typically talking about equities isn't everybody's favorite topic. they want to talk about their cryptos and their altcoins. But I think there has to be a a foundation set for why you should be bullish at all in general and not just, you know, say, hey, why didn't Q4 last year pan out or why didn't 2022 through 2025 pan out?

[00:23:00]What happened? Why? And what does that mean moving forward? And my thoughts aren't that it means we're doomed moving forward or that it implied anything in particular regarding the cryptocurrency market, but that it was a broader macro condition that was happening because a bubble is being printed and in those types of broader macro conditions, breadth historically can collapse in a bubble like that. So, all right, there you go. I hope you enjoyed it. Thank you so much for watching. You know, I'm sure we'll touch on this many times in the future and of course we'll be here all week to take a look at the markets and see how they react. But I keep you up to date throughout the week and in the meantime, of course, check out the newsletter that was published over here at blockchainbacker.substack.com.

[00:23:38]I do audio record all of these. The most recent one has a 38minute audio recording on it where I read the newsletter and I go through the charts with you at the same time. There's a link down here in the description of this video to the newsletter at blockchainbacker.substack.com or you can just go directly within your browser to the newsletter. Otherwise, that's it. Thank you so much for watching. If you could please like this video and give it a thumbs up. If you're new to the channel, please subscribe and hit the notification bell so you can be notified of when I create new content and when I go live. As always, this is not investment advice and I am not a financial adviser, but if you ever need a pickme up or a little bit of reassurance, just remember that the blockchain backers got your back. Have a good one.