Bitcoin Holders: Is Winter Is Over? Here's Both Sides of the Argument

Ajouté : 2026-05-04

[00:00:00]Hey, what's going on guys? Aaron here.

[00:00:01]Welcome to the video. So, is Michael Sailor right? Is winter over? Like he shared recently in this picture.

[00:00:09]Basically, is this crypto winter, this bare market over? I want to talk about why it could be and why it couldn't be a little bit in this video. But first, I want to dive into this. Uh, this is basically what happens before every single Bitcoin conference. So, I want to touch on this in just a moment, but we're seeing the beginning of what looks like what happens. Basically, Bitcoin goes down uh the moment the conference starts. So, I want to talk about that in just a sec. Before I dive into is winter over, that whole argument, I want to touch on what's going on with Iran. So, through Pakistani mediators, they've given the US a new proposal for reaching a deal on the reopening of the strait and ending the war. So has to do with nuclear negotiations are postponed for a later stage under the deal. Trump is set to hold a meeting with his top national security and foreign policy team on Monday. So that would be today when you're watching this. Trump signaled he wants to continue the US blockade of the strait. So supposedly indirect US Iran talks appear to be ongoing. So that's what's happening there. And I think the news, the prices, everything is just sort of immune to what's going on uh with Trump, with what he's saying with Iran right now. Unless something significant happens to the downside or an escalation, I really don't think the price of Bitcoin or the stock market really cares anymore. And speaking of Michael Sailor, he just keeps buying more. This is from yesterday, the 26th of April. The beat goes on, so he's acquiring more and more Bitcoin. And that kind of leads me into this whole is Winter over argument which I want to cover in just a second. But before I do so, I want to remind you guys about Foris X. They are a channel partner. And if you have idle crypto chilling, doing nothing, collecting dust, you may want to consider or take a look at Fortisx.

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[00:02:30]So take a look at the price of Bitcoin right now. I want to show you what happens every single time we have a Bitcoin conference. So June 4th of 2021 it was down or the price of Bitcoin went down 23% 41 days after the conference started. In 2022 it was down 44% in 35 days after the conference started.

[00:02:53]So huge crashes for Bitcoin after the yearly Bitcoin conference. May 18th of 2023 down 8% in 28 days. Then we see in 2024 it was down 25% 11 days after the conference started. And then last year 2025 it was down 8% the 10 days after the conference started. So expect volatility as always. Right now Bitcoin down 1.32% over the last uh day or so. So we are seeing a slight pullback for the entire crypto market. So, if we see a 10% drop, that would align more or less to even last year where Bitcoin was obviously doing incredibly well in 2025. So, as always, be prepared for volatility emotionally, but also financially as well. So, let me talk about this whole winter is over thing. And I just took some notes I want to go over. So, why it could be right, why winter could be over sooner than expected. Right now, the crypto space on YouTube and even on Twitter, it's very split. We are seeing people think that we are going to hit new all-time highs this year, maybe end of this year, and then we're also seeing the camp that says we're going to go down to 40 to 50K and then we're going to go to a new all-time high in 2027.

[00:04:13]So, there's a lot of different uh perspectives here. The big one are ETF inflows. And from this recent story, Bitcoin ETFs absorbed roughly 19,000 Bitcoin over the past eight trading days. So huge right now. Could this flip? Could ETFs begin to sell? Could the boomers begin to sell their Bitcoin, begin to sell their IBIT? Yes, obviously this could change. And here we can see Bitcoin doing better than four years ago and eight years ago. So the previous comparable years, right? We are in the magenta line. this year and Bitcoin is doing better, meaning it hasn't gone down as much since the high in October.

[00:04:56]Basically, since the peak of these different markets, obviously, Michael Sailor keeps buying a ton of Bitcoin every single week, which I think is really propping up the price in Sailor.

[00:05:06]We trust, right? Basically, please Michael Sailor, keep buying, never sell your Bitcoin, right? Please do what you say you're going to do and keep this flywheel moving. So, if that continues and we don't see a hiccup in Stretch and his other products and everything continues to move and prices begin to keep going up, I think that is a flywheel that could really continue to gain more and more momentum. Another reason that winter could be over is that nothing fundamentally broke in crypto.

[00:05:35]Yeah, we saw October 10th, which some people think that there was something maybe in exchanges that went ary, but we didn't see the same thing that happened back in 2022. At least not yet, right?

[00:05:48]We haven't seen a cascade of bankruptcies from FTX to Celsius to Voyager to BlockFi to Three Arrows Capital, all these names that if you were around four years ago, you definitely remember. Uh we haven't seen that this year and we may not, right? we may not see these cascading uh bankruptcies that could really push the price a lot lower. Also, we're seeing more nation states buy Bitcoin. In addition, we are seeing Morgan Stanley, Schwab, all the banks, all the big institutions get involved as well, more so than we have ever seen before. So, those are some reasons that winter could be over, right? Also, I didn't mention, but some things on the technical charts show that maybe this draw down is heading towards a relief rally, but you could look at the charts any way you like, right? Some people call it astrology for men, looking at technical analysis. Nonetheless, you can interpret it however you feel like interpreting it. That's why there can be such a divide in terms of where we're going to go. It reminds me of like doctors that say, "Oh, you got to be vegan." And then other doctors that are like, "You got to be carnivore."

[00:06:52]They can be complete opposites and they can have their proof as to why they're right. Same thing with crypto. But realistically, winter could continue for a while. Historically, we know that the bottom of the bare market usually exists Q3, Q4 of this year or, you know, four years ago it was that way, etc. So, we still may be in for more tumultuousness and possibly several more legs down.

[00:07:15]Also, altcoins are just getting crushed still, which is really unfortunate. uh there could be more escalation in the Middle East, there could be another black swan event, or this year just uh compares to what happened in 2022 in 2018, and there really aren't any fundamental differences, which means we're going to go down lower. But ultimately, the landscape is just very different than where it was back in 2022.

[00:07:37]So many things are different, right? So, will it look exactly the same? I doubt it. But take a look at this chart. These are both from Into the Cryptoverse. Link below if you want access to these charts. We can see Bitcoin's year-to- date ROI. So, how well has Bitcoin done this year versus 2022 and then 2018. So, we are in the orange right here. And we're not too far off from where we were back in 2022. So, Bitcoin's performance this year is more or less tracking what it did back in 2022 right here. So, if we continue this out all the way to the end of the year, we can see that Bitcoin goes down a heck of a lot more or at least did in 2022.

[00:08:16]it goes down basically.3x from where it started. Right now we are at uh8. So it would go down quite a lot more, right? Maybe even into the $40,000 range. So I think it's a little too soon to tell how this is going to play out.

[00:08:33]Ultimately, what I like to do, which isn't maybe the most popular clickbay thing to say on YouTube to get views, is to be prepared for any outcome, any and all outcomes. Because could this repeat what we did back in 2022 or 2018? Maybe.

[00:08:51]Or could we not repeat that and just go off to the races? Because Sailor keeps buying, liquidity comes in, the new Fed chair comes in, we see massive inflows from Morgan Stanley and Schwab and all these banks and institutions. Could things fundamentally change? Yeah. So, you don't want to be caught with your pants down in case the tide does not go the way that you want it. So, it's important just to be aware of that and realize how things could repeat like previous midterm years we can see right here. Or maybe they won't. So, that is it for the video, guys. I will keep you guys posted. And again, if we see a nice little dump in the next week or two, it historically happens after the Bitcoin conferences, so I wouldn't be concerned at all about that. So, I hope you guys are doing well. Till next time, talk with you soon and bye for