What is Polymarket, the gambling site that lets you bet on almost everything?

Added: 2026-05-05

[00:00:00]If you were like me, you probably check the weather forecast before you go outside. And these days, check if the ceasefire in the Middle East is holding up.

[00:00:10]Well, it turns out the US is now blockading the straight of Hammoose.

[00:00:14]Chaos and panic aside, what if you could make money from all of the above?

[00:00:19]Actually, you could by placing bets.

[00:00:23]They were made on a website called Poly Market. It lets you bet on almost any event. Here's how it works. For any event, the platform require yes and no shares. Each share is priced in a range between 1 US cent and 1 US.

[00:00:40]So, I want to bet on whether the straight of Homus will be open by April 30th. A yes share priced at 14 cents means 14% of users think it will be open by then. A no share priced at 86 cents means 86% of users think otherwise.

[00:01:00]Prices of the yes and no shares fluctuate like company shares on a stock market until April 30th reflecting how users sentiment changes as the US and Iran flip-flop between ceasefire and conflict. If the stray opens by the specific date, the yes shares will be settled for $1 and the no shares will be settled at $0.

[00:01:27]So if I bought $100 worth of yes shares at 40, that would mean I would make nearly $620.

[00:01:35]Users also do not have to wait until the system automatically settles the shares.

[00:01:42]For example, right after US President Donald Trump announced an extension of the Iran war ceasefire, the price of Yes shares surged, a user can sell the yes shares at this point to lock in the profit before he changes his mind. But Poly Market has also raised questions about whether is a forum for insider trading. Poly Market is also controversial because users are not betting against the house. Instead, they trade with other users in an open peer-to-peer market using contracts on a blockchain. In Hong Kong, users and assets and use the site. But things get murky regarding whether is legal to place bets online. I would say that betting on these platforms are risky. It might fair well in the future be illegal betting by placing a bet on say Poly Market. you in effect buying crypto tokens but in the gambling ordinance it doesn't requires money per se and is expressly provided that credit bad betting is actually included. Chan also warned that placing bats on these platforms could introduce legal risk regarding money laundering.