Bitcoin Likely Starting the Final Leg Down of the CRASH - Once Done BTC will get a Bear Market Rally

Added: 2026-05-05

[00:00:04]video. Bitcoin down 1.75% again. We've taken out the trend line here in the 4 hour time frame. We've taken out the 50 period moving average.

[00:00:12]Uh again, you might try to rally back up and throw back towards it if uh if we're starting a bigger push down. There might be a larger back test. There was a a throwback towards it. It was smaller here, but we'll be watching that. We did get a lower high right here. So, it is possible. You have a wave 1 and a wave two and this is a wave three but it could be a one two one two and you can come back up here. Whoops, I didn't draw that straight. Uh you could you could try to bottom out and come back up here uh before you know and get a one two one two and then get the big push down and on and down into here before a bigger rally and that could take us back to the trend line here and that can back test the trend line that we had in the daily time frame. So do keep that in mind. Uh again, we're seeing massive warning signs in here and these divergences are now beginning to play out. We were told this wasn't going to happen. You know, cuz we and I was watching another one of my favorite moo boys was talking about how how strong the breakout was and those bears are going to be so sorry for the bear trap. I mean I mean these people, you know what, you got to wonder what they're smoking. You know, it was a bull trap back at the top. It was a fake phony breakout and we crashed 52%. Hello, reality check. But again, they're going to just continue to say this stuff all the way down through the entire bare market just as they did the last bare market. I do think Bitcoin is going to take out this trend line and I think it will eventually bottom but I think it's going beyond 60,000 which again I'm the guy that called for 60,000 and uh the people that are on a 60,000 a bottom are were the very people that told us we were never going to 60,000 that we're going to be at by the end of the year 2002 250,000 and 300,000 and 500,000 and I saw Moonboy uh earlier in the week again calling for $1 million two years from now and are likely going to be in this bare market uh and at much lower levels dropping 80 or 90% may drag out into 2027 and as I've said back at the top we may not see these highs until 2028 or 2029 for the next bull market. So again, MACD, the divergence is playing out. It's going negative. RSI is going negative. The divergences are going uh playing out.

[00:02:35]We've got a lower high now. So again, are we in the wave three? If we are, uh it could be an extended wave three that unfolds in five a fiveway push lower.

[00:02:45]And again, we just may continue going on, but if we get some kind of bounce is probably a wave two in this wave three that's probably taking us towards this trend line. So, uh, again, we've likely peaked, as I've said, uh, warned you way back at the bottom over here, that we're going to go into the 74 to 80,000 range and get a counter trend rally. Told you that on the 5th and 6th of February again, nearly 3 months ago. And this counter trend, it takes its time. So, people, oh, it's obvious we have a bottom. And again, Bitcoin spends a lot of time going sideways. Most people don't have the patience to play the main movement because they don't they they don't understand that Bitcoin constantly goes sideways in uptrends and downtrends. Bitcoin is taking out the 10 period moving average. We're trying to test the 20 period right now. We had these divergences in the daily time frame. We had uh uh the uh divergence on the RSID is now rolling over. We had the divergence on the stochastic. We've got the bare flag. We're stowing at major resistance. And again, we're likely going to push down below 60,000 and probably try to form a bottom and some divergences. I told you back at the top again, fake breakout, head and shoulders pattern. It played out again the 80,000 was not the bottom, but I told you again we were going over here. I predicted we were going to get a rally back up to that 100 period moving average and resistance. Everybody said, "Oh, the bottom has to be in." And again, and then they turn around and say, "Oh, everybody's bearish." Everybody wasn't bearish. heard was very bullish. Same thing here. These people are going to join these people when they get liquidated and stopped out and again eventually Bitcoin will bottom. These are uh early people and again the same people that keep telling us the Bitcoin has bottomed if the momentum signals that gave the warning if we now turn and see that begin to spill over into the trending signals right here. So far we uh have not seen the trending signals turn bearish. Uh and again, I think that's likely going to be the case. I think we'll likely see uh the United States resume military operations as they move back to combat operations. It's likely going to spike crude oil and rattle markets. Now, it could happen by Friday when the stock market closes May 1st or May 2nd on Saturday. Think you got a good shot that's going to happen this week. We got the warning signs. got the warning signs just as we did in January, just as we did back up at the top. Some of these other tops and bottoms. We turned off the upper boundary of the the cloud right here at the top over here at the January high. And here we are yet again doing it once again. That's allowing us to turn off major resistance just under 80,000.

[00:05:34]Again, trending signals have to turn back to bearish. bars have to turn back to red.

[00:05:42]Same thing here. Again, we got to see these trending signals turn back to bearish. We're turning off the midpoint of the channel just like what we did over here. Just like we did over here.

[00:05:49]Every counter trend has stalled there.

[00:05:51]We're just above that level or at that level. And again, you're likely going to turn down and see the bare flag play out. But then I think you'll likely bottom. Watch the 200 and 300 week moving average. That's where we're likely headed. And horizontal support between 49,000 and 55,000. We got to start taking out the 74 75,000 area to start seeing signals turn and then more signals will turn 72 and 70 73,000. So again, expect that's going to be the case. We may see a push down before getting a rally back up. We may push down and see some of these signals flip and then get some kind of rebound. Uh but again, see Bitcoin get rattled. Uh we're likely going to see combat operations resume uh between uh with with the US uh in Iran. I think that'll spike crude oil.

[00:06:49]Now here with my my trading charts, the signal is turning bearish. We're seeing the momentum signals and we went just a little bit higher than that and we turned off of the midpoint of the channel. And right now, as I'm making the video here on the Tuesday session, uh, we're trying to flip the bar back to red. This is one of my trading charts, meaning it's one of the charts that I I put a lot of weight into that I that I put a great uh deal of uh consideration into when making my decisions trading Bitcoin. And I use this chart uh quite a bit. There's another one of my trading charts. And again, uh, not turning bearish here yet, but again, my indicators, they complement one another.

[00:07:35]So, I look for, uh, them to confirm each other. Signal I just showed you, it won't be confirmed until the end of the session.

[00:07:46]Again, we had another topping signal as I talked about yesterday, backtoback topping signals, just as we had backto-back bottoming signals back over here before we rallied into the final peak. Very similar uh, here. So again, another topping signal uh yesterday with the lower high that set up just slightly lower than the previous peak.

[00:08:30]We're seeing momentum flip right here.

[00:08:34]We've seen that happen before some of these big drawdowns uh with Bitcoin, some of these pullbacks in the counter trend rallies.

[00:08:47]we break this area over here, we're going to see the cloud flip back to uh bearish.

[00:08:54]Got to get a got to get a bigger sell off in the 4 hour time frame to flip the cloud back to bearish here.

[00:09:02]Yeah, things are still bearish here in the weekly time frame. And again, we had that warning sign back up at the top.

[00:09:09]Bars turned bearish that very week.

[00:09:10]They've been bearish ever since. Uh again, we've rallied right into the line here and it's kind of similar to what we did back over here. Uh rallying into the line there and then it was followed by a big dump. Again, my my guess is though, you're going to get a big bigger bare market rally. If that's going to happen, I got to see evidence of a bottom.

[00:09:32]Please support the channel. Please support the channel with the link directly below that allows me to be able to provide you this information. If you like my charts, and you will. And if you like my indicators, and you really will because they're right, uh, then please support the channel. I just put it all out there for free and just ask that you do what you can to to help out. I need to hear from you in order to make that work, though, rather than getting sponsors. Most YouTube channels uh have sponsors and get sponsors. They contact you all the time if you get a YouTube channel. I choose not to take those offers, you know, on the exchanges or send you to some website. the exchanges would pay me a lot of money to send people there, but uh again, how do I know they're not going to be the next exchange to go under? I just choose not to do that. I just ask that you do what you can to help out. Follow the link below. Anything helps, but I need to hear from you in order to make that work. So, please let me know that you want this information rather than have me go play golf. Sharing you the uh things that I look at every single day to make my decisions about Bitcoin. I don't know about you, but my indicators have really helped me uh make good choices for with Bitcoin. If you find that cutting edge information helpful, please support the channel. If if you could take a moment to do that when you finish this video, I would really appreciate it. I thank you for your consideration for that. We're turning off major resistance. And here with my oscillator, uh again, we have another divergence. And again, this is likely marking the top at major resistance at 80,000. Over here, it marked the peak at uh 97,000, just under the 98,000 level of resistance. And each time, each time we've just moved right up to just under the resistance area, just here, right under 80,000. And that marked the end of the counter trend rallies. uh back over here we reached extremes at the top and you form divergences on uh different indicators but here we were also at an extreme back at the top. So each time we've reached an extreme we've turned down or uh turning down with the diversions here and the extremes down here have marked the bottom 60,000 80,000 back over here just before the top uh back in the uh just um even the summer going into the fall there in 2025. So again, we're likely uh turning off of major resistance and uh we're going to see the bare flag play out. The MACD is rolling over right now. Really uh compelling evidence uh that again a turning off of resistance forming this divergence as we did the last time. Uh very compelling evidence that we're going to now push down and again when we reach the broken trend line, the moo boys are going to tell us it's a back test. Do you remember them? The people that told us we had, you know, I was, like I said, I was watching my one of my favorite mood boys telling us how we're we're now going to be going. We broke it out. We broke the downtrend. And here we go.

[00:12:23]We're going to we're going to now go to the moon. And uh this is a log scaling, so we're back testing it right now. But the linear scaling is lower. But uh again, still in a downtrend with a peak and a series of lower highs and lower lows. Oh, this is a higher low and a higher high. It's still a counter trend.

[00:12:42]It's still a bare market.

[00:12:45]The dominant trend is still down.

[00:12:51]Again, Bitcoin continues to rally into the previous level of resistance over and over again here at the 74,000, the April low over here, and then over here at the 80,000 low here, uh, just below that level forming the bare flag. Again, we're seeing the MACD roll over. We're seeing a taking out of the 10 period moving average. We'll see if we try to bounce off the 20 or not and try to bounce. Uh but again, if we just plow on through that, then you've got the 50 and the 100 down here and the cloud of support the lower boundary of the bare flag. Hang on, I brought it up close, so my trend lines moved on me just a little bit. But again, uh a fake breakout here, a fake breakout here, and now another fake breakout here, dropping back below.

[00:13:35]So again, I expect you're going to eventually move down and try to take out the 50 and the 100 and eventually try to take out this level. Uh but again, when we come down here, we're going to be told how it is a back test, which again, the Moonboys are telling us uh just had a breakout and we were supposed to keep going.

[00:13:54]And again, they'll just suck in more people.

[00:13:58]I warned you that we were getting all kinds of warning signs that there were sellers lurking at resistance. Uh again, the moonboy is telling us, "Oh, the the ETF, the Bitcoin ETF inflows are massive." Yeah, usually the massive inflows are usually marking tops and the massive outflows often will mark bottoms like at 80,000 and 60,000. And again, I told you both of those are bottoms that we are going to rally back up. Told you they would be counter trend rallies. And I've been looking for evidence of a bottom at 60,000. Really don't see it.

[00:14:40]This is a trend line again. We're turning off this overhead resistance 80,000. I told you back over here on the 5th and 6th of February that we're going to rally up into this resistance between 74,000 and 80,000. We hit it. We're turning down off of it. I told you the channel's expanding just like the channel was expanding back over here.

[00:14:57]And when we turn down towards this trend line right here, the moon boys are going to tell us it's a back test.

[00:15:05]How's that back test working out back over here? Uh when we uh we're throwing back towards the trend line, we just kept going and we dropped nearly 39%.

[00:15:15]How's that? How's that working out?

[00:15:16]How's that buy the dip working out at 80,000? How's that buy the breakout at the top? How's that working out? You got to be objective. Again, Bitcoin goes up, Bitcoin goes down. This is why I've called the counter trend rallies correctly is because I'm looking at the evidence and trying to be objective. I really don't care which way Bitcoin goes up or down. I really don't care. I'm a trader. I trade it back and forth.

[00:15:38]Pretty soon, we're going to bottom out and I'm going to finish closing my long my short positions and I'll be looking for a long opportunity. I'm trying to play the main movement, which is which is down. Just as I told you back at the April bottom, we bottomed and we were going up. the main movement was up, another main movement. Now, the bears, they like me right now. Pretty soon, they're not going to like me because I'm going to call bottom and then I'm going to predict that we're going to get a bigger rally, uh, a bare market rally.

[00:16:05]They're going to go, "No, we're going to keep going. Nothing goes straight up, nothing goes straight down." So, they may love me now. They're not going to like me too too much longer from now when I think that I see evidence of a bottom. I don't see it yet. The bulls, they might like me a little bit, but they're not going to like my message of a bare market rally. And again, this is likely going to go on at least another 6 months into October of 2026.

[00:16:28]Personally, I think it's going to go longer because of what I've described as a dot style bust and a bad recession and a banking crisis.

[00:16:38]I have a couple people asking me about uh strategy, micro strategy, and again uh this is the weekly chart. Oh, is it bottom? Does this evidence of a bottom uh for Bitcoin? And again, we've had the double top here, the Adam and Eve double top, just like we have back over here.

[00:16:54]Uh again, big uh uh micro strategy or strategy uh topped long before Bitcoin ever did. And it formed this uh divergence with Bitcoin just like back in 2021. Bit when Bitcoin peaked in November. We had a divergence with Micro Strategy uh on November 10th when Bitcoin topped and back over here on October 6th, 2025 when Bitcoin topped.

[00:17:17]It also diverged and you can see it with the red lines I've marked right here. It diverged uh right here in October of 2025. So again, Micro Strategy was a warning sign. I talked about this back up at the top about how it was a warning sign of Bitcoin topping uh fell on de ears uh the moonboys and the herd. They didn't want to hear the truth and being asked to micro strategy bottom. Well, we've seen an 80 almost 81% drop and we've bounced and things are trying to uh turn back to bullish here in the weekly time frame on some signals. Uh over here, um we kind of did something very interesting.

[00:17:56]We hit the bottom over here. We hit a low over here and then we rallied back up and then we ended up going back and testing that low um in uh late 2022, December of 2022 and then we bought 89% almost 90% lower here. We've dropped 80% lower almost 81%. So you could see something like this where Micro Strategy begins to uh kind of go sideways and end up forming this kind of double bottom pattern here.

[00:18:28]Uh and you can see something like that or it may go lower and then try to form a bottom like this because we again we've only dropped 89%. So again uh do keep that in mind. Um try to form a long longerterm bottom here with an 80% 81% drop but more likely it has not yet bottomed. And again, the bottoming process may take a long time. This bottoming process, again, look at the topping process. How long the topping process took. Look how long the bottoming process took.

[00:18:58]This took a very, very, very long time for the topping process, the bottoming process, topping process over here. So, you may see this drag out again on into the end of the year in 2026 or maybe on into 2027. So my guess is we've likely not seen a bottom uh for Micro Strategy.

[00:19:19]Interesting to see what happens if we do get the bigger bare market rally as I'm expecting with Bitcoin. How does uh Micro Strategy perform? Micro Strategy and the bare market rally with Bitcoin did get a big a big rally here and it got another one over here as it formed the bottoming process. There's Micro Strategy.

[00:19:40]Today is April 28th, 2026, and it's still a bad day to be bullish on Bitcoin. Bitcoin currently down 1.88% near uh around 2% uh at the lows of the session here. Uh again, turning off of major resistance. Now, Bitcoin will likely get another leg down and attempt to bottom u before getting a larger bare market rally. Once we see evidence of a bottom, then it will be a good day to be bullish on Bitcoin, you'll likely get a massive uh bare market rally.

[00:20:19]Had to see the stock market catchup. And the stock market's at the major trend line of resistance as Bitcoin was uh back up at the October top. It touched it a few times just as the S&P is doing right here, right now. The S&P 500 weekly chart is stalling at a major trend line of resistance going back for six years. The channel uh from the 2020 low. We're stalling at that trend line right now. Just as Bitcoin stalled at its long-term weekly trend lines at the top as well. The stock market has to play catchup and eventually come down to the trend line here, the 200week moving average or the April low to play catchup to Bitcoin for the Fed to panic. that can give Bitcoin another leg down as the stock market joins it, completing the topping process, possibly a broadening formation uh and again very similar to the Bitcoin top back in October sideways just as Bitcoin did.

[00:21:21]And we were told we were told back then that oh Bitcoin was consolidating to go higher and it was topping. It was a stage three top and it dropped 52%. the complete opposite to what all the experts and all the moon boys told us would happen and what the herd believed.

[00:21:39]Conventional wisdom was Bitcoin that's why we had the largest liquidation in history right after that because everybody was long they got liquidated they were super leveraged back up at the top. So again, uh this trend line very similar very similar to what we have here on the S&P to what we had on Bitcoin at its top.

[00:22:03]So to Bitcoin, Bitcoin uh rallied up and got these highs in July and August and October right into the trend line. And I told you back then, these highs could be pointing to the next top because these lows over here could be pointing to the next bottom. We went sideways along that and nobody thought nobody thought we were going to go down. Conventional wisdom was that Bitcoin was going to be at 200 250,000 by the end of December.

[00:22:34]And the complete opposite happened to what the herd believed. And you have to understand this. what the herd believes.

[00:22:41]Usually the opposite happens. I think we're going to get another dump down to the 200 and the 300w week moving average here. But then I think you're probably going to try to bottom and get a larger bare market rally back up. Is we take out uh the 50,000 area, 49,000 to be exact, this low over here, and you end up getting a bigger dump. My guess is you're going to see 49,000 likely hold.

[00:23:05]as I've said 4950,000 try to bottom in that area in that maybe low to 50,000 area or 49,000 but I am open-minded to a bigger drop. I think we'll see another leg down and then I think we'll see a bigger rally back up and then I think we'll see another leg down after that as the stock market plays catch up to Bitcoin and we begin to see Bitcoin probably diverge with the stock market with the S&P 500 in a bottoming process and eventually we'll get uh the new Fed chair we're going to have Fed Chair Pal's last meeting as Fed chair here uh this two-day meeting now Fed Chair Pal's last press conference had a pow rally he's getting oversold. We could try to rally up for a lower high. We're likely going to see escalation with the war. The United States is probably going to resume combat uh uh military strikes. And again, that can happen by Friday when the stock market closes. You're likely going to see that happen because Iran keeps making proposals that don't even address the nuclear issue and they want to push it off. They'll agree to open the straight if if they'll remove the blockade.

[00:24:14]Again, this is not what the United States is willing to agree to. So, you're going to see this escalate.

[00:24:19]Probably oil will surge and it's going to end up rattling markets and Bitcoin will get another push down. That's likely going to be the issue that rattles markets further and you'll see the yields sharply rise. The 10-year yield will go above 5% as I've talked about on my Run Walker channel for the stock market. again here. Historically, Bitcoin has dropped uh 80 to 90%. The smallest bare market we've had was 78 1.5% one over here 84% right here. Uh the the one before that 86% the one before that 93%. Bitcoin's uh historically gotten uh bare markets that have gone on for about a year and that would take us into at least October down into this scenario here. So at least another 6 months of this bare market.

[00:25:08]the four-year cycle breaks, it can go even on longer than that going on into maybe the summer of 2027 as I marked in this example right here. And why why why would the Bitcoin bare market go on longer than a year if that's all it's done? Well, if we break the four-year cycle, it would be likely because the stock market would be get a dot style bust. Bitcoin's never experienced that.

[00:25:34]uh it would be that the stock the uh the economy would move into recession. We get a very bad recession. Bitcoin's never experienced that. The last recession was papered over. And then thirdly, uh we're going to have another banking crisis. And there's clear evidence of that.

[00:25:51]Bitcoin has never experienced any of those things. Again, as as crude oil goes higher, as yields rise, as inflation ticks up, the narrative is going to be the Fed can't cut and will likely produce more selling pressure for Bitcoin. Uh the narrative