BONUS: Draft Lottery Reactions, Guard Logjam, Keeping the Pick to Build and Early Player Comps

Added: 2026-05-14

[00:00:00]Frank's thoughts on the NBA draft lottery. The Bucks picking at 10. What did we take away from the big day on Mother's Day? We get into it next.

[00:00:13]You are Locked on Bucks, your daily Milwaukee Bucks podcast, part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day.

[00:00:25]>> Welcome back into Locked On Bucks. I'm Justin Garcia joined today by Frank Madden. And today's show, part number two here of this discussion, we dig into the draft lottery. The Bucks uh had the the best odds to finish at number 10, Frank. And that's what we saw. Um the team that did finish just a spot below them and they were nip and tuck and neck and neck for quite a bit of of the back end of the season. 49 versus 10 in the lottery odds. the Chicago Bulls jump into the top four, but I don't know what the thoughts are on the lottery. This one certainly felt like um let's just put it to rest here. There's no conspiracy in any of this because we put the Utah Jazz at number two after we find them. We had the Bulls jump up in there. Uh the Memphis Grizzlies, a team that made a mockery of the injury reports and everything else down the stretch, they jumped up to number three.

[00:01:24]So, no conspiracies here. We can put that to bed and now get into this new lottery process.

[00:01:31]>> Well, and most importantly, the team in the crosshairs of the league, the Los Angeles Clippers, getting the best possible outcome, sniping the fifth pick from from Indiana. Um, so I didn't watch it live. I was at my daughter's um you know eight-year-old kid girls championship soccer game. Her team won.

[00:01:55]Very exciting. So that was much more important than uh than the draft lottery. Also, I may have been watching the Barcelona Real Madrid game on my phone uh while she was on the bench on the sidelines. But um but when I finally realized that the lottery had happened, I I can't remember if it was like a tweet, a stray tweet or a group chat message, but some I saw somewhere before I knew where the Bucks or anything when anything happened, I saw a comment that wrong Midwestern team had good luck or something like that. Of course, the person was referring to the Bulls getting jumping up to the fourth pick, but when I first read that, my first thought was like, "Oh, the the Pacers got the first overall pick."

[00:02:37]>> Um, which was my like the outcome I wanted least, basically.

[00:02:41]>> So, then I looked at the draft order and I'm looking at it and I don't see the Pacers in the top four. I'm like, "Oh."

[00:02:47]And I see Clippers number five and um, you know, Bucks at 10. And I was like, "Okay, well, you know, that that I expected from the the comment as well."

[00:02:57]U and you know, like as as we discussed, right? Like the odds of the Bucks >> even if you believed in good luck, like literally you needed like double like good luck with because you obviously also needed the Pelicans to jump up in the lottery as well. But um so I had like no expectations. I looked at the odds people like I don't I'm I'm I'm very uh I'm very cold and calculating like anytime people post like pictures of their tankathon like thing I'm just like >> how many tries did it take you to get that >> I'm just like I don't care like guys like the odds are published like you don't need to like test math basically right >> I know technically it can happen yeah I get that but cool so you 43 times >> exactly If it's 4% or whatever it was of the Bucks getting top, whatever the the percentages were, that means I can do the math. I don't need to push the button 100 times and get it four or whatever. So, uh, so anyway, so I I basically my entire enjoyment of lottery day was the shot and frea of the Pacers losing their pick, which still to this day, like >> why in the middle of a tank they felt like they had to make that trade still is just so strange to me because if they if they like the the exact outcome that happened, which you know, like they with the protection They said like, "We're okay giving up the fifth pick in the draft." Now, of course, they were probably thinking like, "Well, >> we probably don't think that's going to happen, but it was basically a 50-50 bet that they would lose the pick." Um, and so implicitly, you're saying like, "Yeah, we can live with giving up the fifth pick and another unprotected first round pick and Ben Mather and whomever, Isaiah Jackson, whoever else was in it.

[00:04:48]We're okay giving up all that for Zubots. I know he's on a good contract and he's a good player, but like that just it's just like that just does not compute to me. Like just wait till the summer and either you get the first overall pick or or you get a top four pick which you know is awesome or you have you know like the fifth to ninth or whatever whatever pick in the draft and or I think was fifth the only was fifth the worst that they could do or was it six? sixth I guess probably because they were the second worst team I think >> sixth I think was the worst. Yeah.

[00:05:24]>> So like if you have the fifth or sixth overall pick spoiler alert you would be able maybe maybe avita zubots would have been traded and somebody wouldn't want to trade him again but like >> right >> you would be able to go get a really really good NBA starting center using like the sixth pick and probably not all that other stuff that you had to give up to get a vita zubat. So, yeah. Anyway, it was just very strange to me that like the the calculus involved with that trade. And so, you know, I will take at least some pleasure in in the Pacers, who of course are in a much better position than the Bucks moving forward.

[00:06:00]They can enjoy that. But guess what?

[00:06:03]You're probably never win a championship. So, suck on that. Uh, so anyway, um, thankfully nobody, no Pacer fans care enough to probably that when they win a championship in 2027, but >> no, they do.

[00:06:18]>> Okay. Well, you know, fair play.

[00:06:20]>> Front and center on the Pat Macki show, Frank, in years. Like, look at this clown.

[00:06:25]>> Yeah, there you go. Um, but anyway, so u so that was really the only thing I could could enjoy from from the draft.

[00:06:33]Although I will say this, I am now I'm in like draft information gathering mode and I have gotten to a very good place in my old age. Um, you know, pro tip, you are wonderful listeners and all the other people that love the draft. Odds are you're not great at picking players that are going to be good and bad. And if you really wrote down who you know you got mad about your team not picking, your track record probably would be like spotty at best. So my philosophy is I'm just going to go in and try to like sell myself on all these guys. Justin doesn't mean that that doesn't mean that I'm going to love every player, but I'm going to go in looking for the glass half full story on all these guys. Um, you know, I've been spending some time, um, Dalen Swain. I was getting myself excited about Texas wing Dalen Swain.

[00:07:31]Hey, legitimate wing size. Has some, you know, like in interesting pick and roll attacking ability.

[00:07:40]Shot isn't great, but like that's the kind of thing maybe you gamble on. He's over 80% free throw shooter. Dalon Dalon awesome. sold on Steve Unhorn and I are already sold on on our guy Dalon Swain.

[00:07:54]Um Cameron Carr. H watch the dunk highlight reels on Cameron Carr from Baylor. Justin >> three-point shooter.

[00:08:05]>> Do you have a third name that you're high on too?

[00:08:08]>> Well, I I I'm honestly I I mean like I find a number of the uh guards interesting like as we had discussed, right? Like there's a number of like one of the guards will likely be available is my guess. Um Michael I think it's Michael Brown, right? Not Mikuel. I think it's Michael Brown.

[00:08:26]>> It's Mike.

[00:08:29]>> It's a combo of the two. Yeah.

[00:08:32]>> Mike Mike Brown Jr.

[00:08:36]>> Son of Nick coach.

[00:08:39]Um he is maybe the most interesting one because he's like 6'5 and >> he's like also the streakiest of those guys. His season was a bit you know kind of hit or miss. He had some back spasms and stuff like that. That was kind of a problematic. Um >> so and it seems like he could be available in that range. So I could be interested in him. Although the thing that I the thing that I struggle with with these guards is like what is the probability that whether it's who who was all there Brown uh I don't know if you put your guy from Arizona Brain Bur Bur >> I don't think he's going to be there at 10 Burries. Yeah.

[00:09:22]>> Yeah. He's more of a shooting guard right. Not exactly like maybe a combo.

[00:09:26]>> Yeah. He's kind of like Rollins. Yeah.

[00:09:29]Um, and then the other guys I got like Auff I think is probably going to be gone. Waggler seems like very likely to be gone like five or six. I'm trying to remember if there were other point guards. Were there other guards that were like >> Kingston Flemings who like >> I think when they just went through all the measurements was actually like >> Yeah.

[00:09:48]>> Yeah. Um, but like with any of these guys I think the interesting question is like like spoiler alert like I think even Kevin Porter Jr. pops out. Like the Bucks could resign Kevin Porter Jr. if they want to and they're not going to have to pay >> a huge price tag for that. Uh if you want him to be your starting point guard and play alongside Ryland Rollins or whatever. Um like what are the odds of any of those guys that could be there actually like being more productive NBA players in their first three seasons than what Ryan Rollins and Kevin Porter Jr. like were last year? And I realized Porter was hurt a lot, but you know, I mean, we know the stats, right?

[00:10:29]>> Yeah.

[00:10:29]>> Like, are any of those guys going to come in and average like >> I mean, KPJ average like seven assists or something like that, but like you know, Ryan and Kevin are both like 18 points a game, good efficiency, like they're they're good defensively. Maybe not the last their team suck defensively, but I think those guys can defend with Taylor Jenkins, you know, in like a real defensive system. So, it's kind of an interesting like it's almost like like I don't know, I saw like some comments of like, oh, the Bucks desperately need guard depth. And it's like look, the Bucks kind of need everything if especially if Giannis isn't around. But like I don't know if you bring back KPJ and Ryan Rollins like and you've got you know AJ and of course the immortal Cormarmac Ryan like >> I'm not saying you have like your your guards set but like like you're not >> you're throwing them into a log jam and like can we really develop them there?

[00:11:27]Um it also feels like it's shortsighted to say like well we have Kevin we have the Kevin Por why wouldn't like that's the toughest >> like won a playoff game right like >> yeah so that's the tough part that the Bucks are are are currently in with just a guardheavy draft and that being the one spot where you feel like I guess we're set here. Um there was one takeaway that I had from all these like mocks and player evaluations that are coming out here. We'll get to really quickly. And um the discussion over like I think we can probably wrap it on who the Bucks are taking. It seems pretty obvious and we can call this right now, Frank. So we'll get into that coming up after this.

[00:12:11]Well, time to talk to you about FanDuel.

[00:12:13]The playoffs are here. Every possession matters. And if you're looking to get even closer to the action, FanDuel has a great offer to get you started. Right now, new customers can bet $5 and get 150 in bonus bets if your first bet wins. So, you turn five bucks into 150 in bonus bets just for getting started.

[00:12:30]On the FanDuel app during the playoffs, everything you need is right there.

[00:12:34]Stats, trends, and matchups. Check all of them before you make your picks, making the whole experience feel more informed. And whether it's player props you follow or just keep tabs on your favorite stars, you get added excitement to every game in the app. It's easy to navigate, making playoff basketball even more engaging from start to finish. So head to fanduel.com to get started.

[00:12:57]FanDuel, play your game.

[00:13:03]And the postseason heating up, Door Dash has ways to keep fans in their bag the whole way through. Whether you're watching the highlights, the tunnel fits, or just your favorite player, Door Dash is here to make the entire season more fun. Because every player has their bag, and with Door Dash, fans have one, too. They keep your snacks stocked, your gear fresh, and your watch party vibes absolutely on point. Those nights when your team stresses you out, Door Dash becomes your postgame therapy session, getting you whatever it is you need right then and there. Late night games and interviews hit. Door Dash is built exactly for that moment. You need what it is regardless of the time. And it's not just food. Get your phone charger or whatever it is you need to get you through the night. Off to overtime. Stay in your bag and order on Door Dash. Get snacks, drinks, gear, whatever gets you through the season delivered right to your door. Door Dash in your bag all season long.

[00:14:01]So, the one thing that kills me with all these comps uh and player evaluations, like I forget what site is the absolute worst, but they're all doing it too of like player comps and for everyone in the top 12, it's like, oh, Kobe Bryant, uh Kevin Garnett, like, okay, so this draft is just loaded with top 50 all-time players. That's what we're getting that the player comp for him.

[00:14:25]And who was it Jay Williams the other day? like, well, I think his bar, which was he trying to say for >> and his ceiling is Giannis.

[00:14:33]>> Ceiling is Giannis. Like, oh, wow. Well, surely he's the number one pick in the draft. Like, we can cool it with the player comps. Like, you can throw out something realistic and tell me like comp uh yeah, it kind of strikes me as Male Bridges. Even if he's a top five pick, look, even if that's what the guy amounts to, he's not a bust. So, it's not like it's a terrible pick.

[00:14:57]Well, the real question is, would Jay Williams take Tayen Horton Tucker over the top four guys in this draft? Where is Tayen Horton Tucker on this draft board?

[00:15:07]>> Um, is that a deep cut for Bucks fans? I don't know. I feel like our audience would probably get that joke, but um yeah, I Well, the CL the best one was always the NBA Draft.net comparison of Deshun Stevenson to Michael Jordan. um his upside comparison like >> when was that like mid90s or something?

[00:15:27]I can't even remember when Deshan Stevenson was picked. But um no, it was later than that. But uh yeah, I mean and that's kind of the hard part too. Like I I think um I think one of the hardest things to do is like figure out like at what point do you let go of kind of the illusion that you're going to pick a a superar especially at a spot like 10. And I think probably Yakel Lenderborg is probably the most interesting test case for that.

[00:16:00]I think, you know, I think the negative case for him is largely tied to his age, right?

[00:16:15]>> Yeah. He's old.

[00:16:16]>> Big believer. I think a lot of the draft models like highlight this of like you know drafting like the bar statistically like the productivity of a guy who's you know 19 in college like does not need to be as good as somebody who's like 22 23 right just because there is obviously natural aggression. Um, that said, like I think Lenderborg is I think I do think a guy like that is like a super interesting um combination of talents and physical tools and I think his numbers that he tested out in were were pretty phenomenal. Now, you know, again, like the with Giannis versus without Giannis is sort of an interesting lens for a guy like that because I think if you're envisioning guys like a superstar role player, then you're probably more tolerant of that if you have Giannis versus if you're like got nothing and you know your best player is Ryan Rollins. Um, but I again I glass half full, Justin. I'm I'm trying not to get I'm not gonna get mad even though recent Bucks history does not give me like tons of reason for optimism. Um so we'll kind of see see how this goes. But uh I don't know. I I think if there's one thing the the one thing that the recent Bucks history probably has made me a little biased against is, you know, 63 combo guards, you know, again, just like this is going to be the Bucks's only top 10 pick probably for a number of years, barring obviously they trade for for some, but like all year long we were joking about how the Bucks entire roster was 6'4 guards.

[00:17:58]Um, and 6'4 is a good size for a point guard.

[00:18:01]>> And then this draft comes >> and this draft comes along and like you're telling me now like we got to draft another 64 guard and then what?

[00:18:09]Like we don't bring back KPJ and like waste that asset because we drafted a different 64 point guard who's probably not going to be as good as KPJ for at least three years, you know? Like anyway, so that's the part I'm I'm getting away from my glass half full here. I'm I'm I'm straying too far into the glass half empty, Justin. So, I apologize. I'm I'm not subscribing to my own, you know, do as I say, not as I do.

[00:18:34]But, um but that's the part that gives me a little bit of pause. Um and why the like bigger like wing types um or just guys with bigger size, you know, like tall tall shooting carts slashwing guys like the Swaines. Yeah.

[00:18:49]>> Lenderborg, who's obviously like much larger than like a typical wing. He's probably obviously more of a four. Maybe he can flex down to a three. Like >> those those are interesting because I I I think if we're trying to draw insights from what we're seeing in the playoffs, you were kind of alluding to this earlier. You know, when I look at like the Pistons, the Knicks, why are those two teams so hard to play against?

[00:19:10]Certainly having like dominant lead guards is a huge part of the story for those two teams. But like having just multiple >> Well, the Knicks have multiple like >> Yeah.

[00:19:22]>> big wing defenders that can defend multiple positions.

[00:19:26]>> Um >> the Pistons, you know, I always think of Assar Thompson like principally as that guy who, you know, >> certainly has major offensive concerns that, you know, give you pause in the playoffs. But, you know, if you have a guy who can actually like shoot and be an offensive threat and defend like an OG or an Assar Thompson, like, oh, that's actually like, >> yeah, >> you're that that is, you know, worth its weight and gold, even if you know, again, like >> you ideally want a superstar. You ideally want Giannis and to have a couple of those guys. Um, but if you can't, you know, you got to start somewhere. So, yeah. Um that's those are the sort of like profiles that I think are are certainly interesting to me and alas for all everything Kyle Kousman did last year I don't think he's he's quite in that category.

[00:20:17]>> Um yeah Linda Berg is a guy Linda Borg is a guy I keep coming back to because of that and a guy that I feel like he can play multiple positions and I mean seen firsthand when he ripped my team's heart out. He's got the toughness too to play through that injury and and come back in the same game and knock down some big shots that like that like that's what we're missing too is not only the size and and the length on the perimeter but like physicality and toughness is what we need to bring to the table here and if we can stock up on that great. Um the last thing I wanted to say I told you like we we can probably call it now because I feel like we know who's getting picked here. Uh, I find it funny you didn't mention Nate Ament because it feels like Let's just call it in now. If he's on the board at 10, Nate Amendment, congratulations.

[00:21:13]Welcome to Milwaukee. And um, we'll call it in with fellow UT alum Jimmy Hasslam.

[00:21:25]>> Well, I should get somebody yesterday who uh, what was their joke? I wanna I wanna Where is it?

[00:21:34]My first >> Okay, it was >> uh Dabby. Hi, I'm Dabby uh on Twitter who said in the in the like in the uh he retweeted kind of something about the Nate A discord. He said, "What's better than one Usuzman Jen? Two Usman Jensen."

[00:21:54]And I think that there is a lot of parallels between those two guys because they're both >> 610. You know, they can claim to have >> both theory of it. Yeah. But >> they're both like 610 with guard skills, but like they're kind of, you know, they're just sort of offensively soft, probably like to shoot more than they, you know, can justifiably shoot. Um, >> and they make some defensive plays, too.

[00:22:18]Um, >> so yeah. And to be clear, I am I enjoyed, you know, what we saw from Jen at the end of the season. I definitely want them to bring him back. That said, like, you know, you look at his numbers like poor efficiency, the shooting ultimately like wasn't sustainable. like you know he was and he got he was being force-fed and like asked to play point guard and do stuff that was kind of beyond his skill set which I think probably hopefully will be good for him. Um but like I don't know sometimes I I think people especially after that Houston game I think people like started to say like oh like the upside and it's like I don't see like a lot of upside. I think there is really some really good roleplayer um all-aroundedness and a great role player skill set in terms of you know being able to shoot be a connector.

[00:23:16]I think he's tougher defensively than he is offensively which is maybe an interesting sort of um thing to say about someone. But I would rather probably have that you know at this point given where the Bucks are and the you know need to build a defense I think first. So, um, so yeah, we'll see. But that that would be I I would I have not mentioned Nate Amen in part for that reason. Um, so, uh, so we'll kind of see see how that plays out. There was one other guy. Oh, someone pointed out today.

[00:23:48]Who was it?

[00:23:50]Was it Kareem Lopez or somebody? I was joking before the draft that like, oh, Kareem Lopez, like here's a guy that like no, he was playing in the middle of nowhere, New Zealand.

[00:24:02]>> So, I was like, oh, AJ Johnson part two.

[00:24:05]The part that falls apart is that Kareem Lopez was actually like a quite good player in the Austral Johnson. From from the makers of Bo Champ and AJ Johnson comes Kareem Lopez.

[00:24:20]He also looks like Brook Lopez and Robin Lopez. Uh despite the fact that he's Mexican. Um well, I mean, you know, like their last name is Lopez, so whatever.

[00:24:30]But, um I don't we don't we don't think there's any actual >> I don't think there's any actual blood relation between them. But I was seeing the jokes and there was video of him at the combine. I think he he had like a 38 inch vertical leap. So, that would also suggest that he does not share any DNA with the Lopez brothers. But um but anyway uh he's he's like a six state power forward.

[00:24:55]>> Yeah.

[00:24:56]>> He has certainly some skills.

[00:24:58]>> Um >> but anyway, so yeah, >> we'll keep consuming content here and >> I'm gonna I'm gonna try to talk myself into why Nate Amen wouldn't be a bad pick. I'm try >> I gota I gota run to see the Yeah, I got to run to see the comps in these these same draft boards for Nate Amen. I'm sure it would be like, oh, C floor is Paul George and Celine is like Durk Noitzky, something like that. Oh. Oh, great. Well, definitely. Let's Let's sign it up.

[00:25:28]>> I I think I think Jen I think his ceiling um I think there's a I think the Nick Batum comp for his ceiling is actually like a pretty good one because I was looking at it again like Batum never actually like scored a whole bunch.

[00:25:42]>> Yeah.

[00:25:43]>> Um Yeah. but he had like I think some five assists seasons um and like obviously was like versatile defensively. So I I think I think that's his I think he he sort of tops out there and that would be a phenomenal place to top out. I mean >> he got paid an absolute ton of money by the Hornets for maybe not ultimately good reasons but he was a quite he was a very good NBA player and obviously he stuck around for a very long time and you know so >> especially late career batum. Yeah. Um, yeah. I I left last season feeling like I think the ceiling for this guy is like, >> could he be my seventh man in the rotation? I feel like he can get there.

[00:26:26]Oh, yeah. I think his ceiling is definitely like uh role playing starter.

[00:26:31]Sure. Like he could be a role playing starter. Like that's not the highest bar. Um but more likely, you know, like seventh guy, right? Ideally, you have, you know, like a better option as you're starting small forward. And then, >> and this is a guy that isn't gonna kill you for 25 minutes or whatever it is he plays. Yeah.

[00:26:52]>> Right. Right. But, you know, again, like if you have a good the thing is if you have an actually like good team, like if you have a Giannis type, >> then by definition, you have to be pay you have to have some guys >> who don't make a lot of money that are starting for you because you can't have $20 million plus players at every position. Um, so that would be, I think, the, you know, the the angle for for him in the kind of current construction of the Bucks, especially given their lack of wing depth. Um, if they just keep adding more 63, 64 guards, but we'll see.

[00:27:23]>> We'll see. It uh it's going to be fun to keep track of the comps for these players and everything that starts to continue to trickle out from the uh the combine underway here. Um, and I I see a few people pointed out too, like, well, I think we got to wait to see if if this new lottery reform gets passed and once it does, like that could potentially change trades and what teams are looking at for draft pick. It's going to pass.

[00:27:49]Like, it's not being floated out there if they don't feel like they already have the votes for it. So, I'm not concerned about that. But it is going to be curious to see what it means for a trade like this with Giannis in like the picks that you get back and what teams how they start to view those those types of assets in this new lottery system that it feels like we're we're headed towards. Uh a reminder if you never miss an episode of the show, the Everdair Club is what's built for you. You get ad free episodes of the show and exclusive membersonly Discord access as well. You can find the link to sign up for the Every Dare Club in the show notes of today's episode. For those of you on video, we send you the first ever 247 national NBA YouTube show on audio. Make sure you make it your second listen NBA game night on Locked on NBA. That'll do it for today's episodes for Frank. I'm Justin. We'll talk with you once again tomorrow on Locked on Bucks.