Where is the Irish Economy heading

Added: 2026-05-09

[00:00:00]Where is the Irish economy heading?

[00:00:05]Pretty important question, I would think. Well, depends very simply who you ask or who you're talking to because if you ask the Irish government, they will tell you the Irish economy is booming.

[00:00:17]It's thriving. It's doing fantastic. And technically, technically, if you analyze it, they're not far wrong. But if you really look at it, it's a completely different story to that. Part of the Irish economy is flying. The lucky thing for the government is the part that's flying is making up for the part that's tanking. I've been talking to quite a few business people over the last um couple of weeks all around the country, all different industries, bars, restaurants, retail, whole lot of different stuff.

[00:00:50]And everybody is telling me the same thing. So I'm talking about the particular part of the economy, the small self-employed business person. And what they're telling me is is that start of the season very slow. March a little bit better. April, first two weeks of April were a disaster. A lot of people saying the worst Easter they'd ever seen. Um and then there's some people that are saying actually they're doing quite well. However, their turnover is going quite well, but the cost of running the business is just exorbitant. It's just through the roof. It's just it's literally out of control. And whilst the money might be coming into the till, there's more going back out. Now, a lot of these people would be, how would [clears throat] you say, generational business people in the sense that they're maybe second or third generation of running their business. So, a lot of them are debtree. They don't owe the bank anything running their business yet they are still struggling and that's really alarming. Us personally, we're up on last year but again we share the exact sentiment that running the business is just completely out of control. The cost of doing business is insane right now at the moment. But what it shows is is that if this is the start of the season and God knows how the actual tour season is going to go, particularly in seasonal areas, rural Ireland, uh we're seeing a few cancellations come in for the latter months, September, October, where sentiment the foreign tours, particularly the American market, a little bit worried as to what's going on. They've bought and paid for their holidays from last year, but they're afraid there's going to be supplements added on, fuel charge supplements, flight supplements basically, of god knows what. So, they're still within their cancellation period of getting their money back. So, they go, "Look, you know what? Might just cancel, you know, but we'll come back in a couple of months and maybe rebook again if we don't think we're going to get nailed with this flight sir charge." So, it's very very hard to kind of like predict or forecast what's coming over the next couple of months. We have a couple of nice bookings in for May and June. I have to admit after that, like, you know, it's looking okay, but who knows what's going to happen. It won't take much, trust me, it won't take much to make the RS fall out of what we're seeing is a huge decrease in what we call privates. So, we would say, you know, like a couple away for the weekend or a family away for the weekend. And I know and don't bother because I just go, "Have you dropped the [ __ ] prices of your steak yet with the mat?" That hasn't even come in yet. It's the 1 of July. And and trust me when I tell you this, very few places are going to be in a position to drop their prices because whilst that has come down, everything else has gone through the roof. So you can't just cut your prices because one cost come down because 20 have gone up.

[00:03:38]So that's the reality of it. I said that 12 months ago. That's why cutting the VAT, huge mistake. Cash is what they should have done. cash injections into business to lift them out of the ship because one of the most common thing that people are telling me and again let me know in these comments if you're running the business you let me know how you're doing or you know am I spouting shite or does this make sense is that more and more businesses are literally in the red they're in their overdraft where they were never in their overdraft before but what's more alarming is that they can't get out of it they'll have a good weekend next minute huge bills go out they're going well until the end of the month next revenue obligations come out. So, they just can't get ahead. They just can't get their head out of that red figure in the bank, which is alarming considering the time of year we're at. I mean, people shouldn't be in their overdraft now at the moment, but so many are. But the concerning thing I have because the government will still be able to tell you in 6 months time, we have a surplus. And don't forget, we gave you all those fuel allowances. And don't forget, they're probably going to come out with a couple of sweeteners as well over the next month or two for the winter. We gave you this for the winter and we gave you that. We gave targeted supports to business. We still posted a surplus. We're still doing fantastic.

[00:04:47]And on paper, it'll looked that way as far as they're concerned. But the other side of the economy is in serious trouble. And the people who aren't even self-employed, i.e. the guy who gets up and works Monday to Friday 9 to5 or puts in their 40hour shift, they're also worse off because everything has just spiraled out of control. So that side of the economy is in serious trouble. Where I think we're in serious trouble is the change over or the handover of the guard that we're about to have in about 6 8 nine 9 months whenever it's going to happen when one T-shock leaves and we have our tonish to take his place because and maybe I'm totally wrong.

[00:05:22]Maybe this is the night and shining armor. But I'm not comfortable with Simon Harris running the show. You'll say tough [ __ ] Democracy dictates that.

[00:05:31]You've got to put up with it. And I know. But I'm just saying that I'm not so sure it's going to be in the best of hands going through the winter where people are going to seriously struggle and people are saying you forecasted loads of businesses going bust it just the spotlight has been taken off that go around any rural town or village in Ireland you'll see empty buildings all over the place you'll see derk buildings in the city centers as well you'll hear from people on the main street in the corks in the gways in the limicks in the Dublin to say business has absolutely tanked main street city center. So it is happening. Unfortunately, what we're hearing on the news day in day out is our attention has been taken away from that and it's focusing on the straight of Hormuse, the Iran, America, Israel, Gaza, Ukraine. What the hell's going on here? There is there another war coming in? What's the straight? So our focus has been taken off how the Irish economy is actually doing at the moment. But trust me when I tell you all these businesses are closing down. You can see it. And the frightening thing, and you'll see this as well, is that beforehand, 10 years ago, maybe even six, seven years ago, pre2020, shall we say? We all know what happened from 2020 onwards. But pre2020, if a business went, more than likely, somebody was in there within a week and had it reopened.

[00:06:49]And how many derelic buildings can you see in your towns and villages around the country that have gone where businesses have shut down and you'll still see a for sale sign, you'll still see a for lease sign and nobody's taken it over. We're now pretty much middle of May. There's about 3, four months of a season. So you'd be off your [ __ ] head if you were to take over a business right now in the middle of the season in a rural area because come September, October, that's it for the next five, six months.

[00:07:20]This is the predicament we're in. I think this is what I'm seeing. This is what I'm hearing. This is what I'm when I'm walking around, what I'm looking at.

[00:07:28]So, when you hear the economy is flying, if you had 10 people in a room and nine were skins and there was one guy who was [ __ ] minted and if you added up everybody's bills, the one guy could technically cover them no problems.

[00:07:42]That's fine. But he won't. And that's the economy in Ireland right now at the moment. The multis corporation is flying. Corporation tax receipts through the roof. Flying. There will be a surplus again at the end of this year.

[00:07:55]Brilliant. Hooray. Tata. Tati. Aren't we amazing? Shout to government. No.

[00:08:00]Because the other nine guys in the room still have all their bills to pay and are still [ __ ] So that's what we have to look forward to. The changing of the guard when the new t-shirt comes in. Because I'm pretty sure the one on the way out doesn't really give a [ __ ] because hey, he's on the way out. I don't know. Am I wrong?

[00:08:17]Are you self-employed? Are you struggling right now at the moment? Is the sentiment that I'm hearing, the sentiment that you're feeling, is that what's going on around the country? I can't be the only one who's seeing all these empty buildings. I can't be the only one that can notice what's going on, the change, the dynamics, the alterations in in all the towns and villages around Ireland. It's a different country right now. And small familyrun businesses are suffering. And those who are just working, the normal PA guy, those who are just doing that are also suffering because their paycheck has gone down and the cost of just doing their shopping and everything in life has gone up.

[00:08:54]So remember that the next time you're told that the economy is flying in Ireland. For some, but for most, it's not. Unless, of course, I'm wrong. As I always say to you, don't want you to think like me. Just think.