Stocks & ETFs: Nvidia Beats, Ups Dividend, Buyback, Stock...; Ira Epstein's SPDR-ETF Video 5-20-2026

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-21

[00:00:12][music] >> Well, good evening. I'm Rapstein with your Spider ETF stock market wrap up and this wrap up is for the evening of Wednesday, the 20th of May, 2026.

[00:00:24]Now, got Memorial Day coming up, so remember you got two more trading days on top of you and then you're going to get a day off. I want you all to think about this Ebola scare that is going on.

[00:00:36]I know it's away from the market, but I'm starting to see that now in the US airports, they're start starting to do screenings of people that are coming from abroad.

[00:00:45]This is not localized like what you're hearing. I I think you have to have your uh defenses up. You have to be aware, be very careful. People that go to Africa, anyone that you're talking to, it's it's dangerous, all right? What makes it so dangerous reminds me of COVID and the market could ill afford another COVID. I I think you're aware of that. And there's again no vaccine for this at this point. That doesn't mean they won't throw a ton of money at it now. They stopped for 5 years and now they got to go doing it again. There There's no question in my mind about that.

[00:01:20]Um when we look at the markets, today was the video day and the video as it turns out had a good day. It was up 286.

[00:01:28]Unfortunately, they hit all their numbers.

[00:01:32]They declared a 25 cent dividend from 1 cent. They went up 25 times.

[00:01:38]Uh their numbers look great. They are saying that the next quarter they're looking for another 5 billion advance in sales.

[00:01:46]Uh phenomenal. So, the stock is down 285 cuz I'm talking to in the evening trade.

[00:01:52]I mean, go figure. That's it.

[00:01:54]The markets had a great day today because it we're being confused.

[00:02:00]I don't know if it's intentional, unintentional, but the confusion is Trump keeps coming out, we're there, we're waiting now, this is the going to be the deal. That's basically what he keeps saying.

[00:02:12]And there is no deal. I mean, the Iranians came out and the answer was they gave us how they're going to operate the Strait of Hormuz, what the tariffs are, how people have to pay it, no ships are going through without contacting their maritime, otherwise they can be blown out of the water, and that is how this is going to go down, and you think that's the peace deal.

[00:02:34]Now, as I said, and I haven't changed my tune on this, I think at the end of the day if Trump did get the uranium out of Iran, the agreement they're not going to enrich for X whatever time he'll accept, I think he'd walk away from the deal and let the Strait of Hormuz be Europe's.

[00:02:56]Europe's heard him. Europe is listening very carefully because they came out and said that they will go in the free the strait by the end of July if it's not already free.

[00:03:09]Trump countered by saying on the next major event that NATO runs into, they should not count on the United States to be there the way it has in the past. And we won't be. He has gone after in America all of his rivals, so you you're seeing that in all the preliminaries and he's beating them. NATO's on that list with it, too, and he's yanking troops, he's doing all this because they weren't there with them. Vengeance? Well, that's what he's got for them.

[00:03:38]Now, in the marketplace, though, how do you play with that? Because what do we believe? That's the hardest thing. You had your free shot today. You saw that when the market bought into the again what he was saying, the stock market rallied rather dramatically. We saw bonds and notes give back yield. We saw a $7, $6.5 break in crude oil.

[00:04:02]That's all nice, but where are we? I mean, I want to wake up one of these mornings and we really have the makings of a treaty. I would like to be wrong on everything I'm saying right now and yes, behind the scenes they got it done. It'd be a better world, don't you think? And that's what it comes down to. And for those of you that say, "Well, I talk too much politics." What do you think you're trading right now? You're not trading the markets. You're trading the politics of the markets because we don't know if oil's priced too high. If it is priced too high because we're going to get a peace deal right away, that makes sense.

[00:04:39]Then inflation falls. You saw the Fed minutes. The Fed's looking at it. So, get off your horses when you think that that's it. That's what you're trading right now and that's part of the lunacy of the market today.

[00:04:51]In terms of market, remember I have a special report on the dollar index. My reports are only up for three business days from when I put them out. All right? So, understand that. That means this report will be off on Friday. So, you want to take a look at it now. I cover for you FXE, UUP. Those are the two uh currency ETFs and of course, the dollar index and I'll be doing another report shortly. Probably one on one of the major stocks. Uh it's time that we do some of those. So, right after Labor Day, that's my that's my goal to come out and do. I need something that the futures traders want to see as well as the uh stock trader. So, we'll see what we come up with.

[00:05:33]But, I really cover the seasonals. I cover the weekly charts, the daily charts. Sometimes Fibonacci numbers, price counts are in here and I give a game plan and give you the what if scenario. So, what do you have to lose?

[00:05:46]You can click up here.

[00:05:49]Over here you can click. If you're watching me on YouTube, there'll be the gear icon or just go to irapsteen.com.

[00:05:55]Next, let's talk about what you get tomorrow. You're going to get export sales for grains at 7:30 in the morning.

[00:06:02]The Philly Fed regional business activity index, that's going to be important at 7:30. The US Census Bureau monthly housing starts and building permits at 7:30. Jobless claims, they're looking for a slight decline. I can tell you that already. S&P Global Group released their preliminary May manufacturing and service sector PMIs.

[00:06:22]They'll come out at 8:45. The net gas report, then the Kansas City manufacturing composite business activity index. And the video is beat on just about every front, yet it's lower as I said. And we get the all-important Walmart number. I just heard that Dollar General, literally 15 minutes ago it broke out on my one of the news wires I was looking at. It wants to change its business model to more emulate Costco's model. So, we'll find out what that exactly means and where they're at. Now, keep in the back of your mind.

[00:06:55]When you look at Nvidia, I know it's down. It It's earnings PE number is about 2687.

[00:07:04]It's the cheapest of the AI stocks on a PE a PE basis. And while everybody says, "Oh, they're going to chip away at their business, their GPL." Do you think a company this big as Nvidia, they're going to let them do that? They'll be into something else.

[00:07:21]That's the nature of the beast, all right? I'm not saying they're going away, but I say they're going to be your next four trillion-dollar company. The other thing you've got, you've heard now that SpaceX is coming out. The symbols have been given. They're going on to the Nasdaq. And OpenAI announced today that their their IPO will be in September.

[00:07:42]All the money that's going to go in there has got to come from somewhere.

[00:07:45]Think about that. Where's that going to come from? You've got to think these things out because they're so important to the markets.

[00:07:51]So, when we look at the market today, you can see just about everything had an up day. The metal markets at lower interest rates and no war. Remember what I told you, they'd rally if there's no war because they'll deal with inflation.

[00:08:04]That's where you're at. Uh hearing all this about Tesla and all while Tesla's not SpaceX.

[00:08:11]It gets the play out of it in its own way.

[00:08:15]Bond, BND, TLT. I saw people coming out and recommending purchases today in TLT.

[00:08:21]So, traders are trying to say what I'm saying. There's so much smoke that where there's that, there's generally fire.

[00:08:27]And the fire in this case could be that there actually gets to be a peace deal.

[00:08:32]Am I betting on it? I am not.

[00:08:34]Not yet. Why? Because if Iran said there's going to be a deal, why are they being loud and saying how they're going to control the straight, what they're charging, and every ship's got to go through it? They know that's going to be a problem for Trump. I'm not saying he won't give in on that. He'll let other countries deal with it possibly. But, it it just doesn't sound like they've reached that point of a deal. And then when I read Al Jazeera's and all the other papers that come out of uh the Middle East, and I read a lot of them in English, obviously. Uh I'm not getting the impression they're giving up on anything. They think they're winning the war.

[00:09:12]So, we'll see what happens.

[00:09:14]When we take a look at Netflix, it couldn't even rally with the market in general today. Down. So, you know it's a dog.

[00:09:22]Wanted to bring it up. I don't know that I'll carry it through the weekend or not, but I I wanted to bring you up to where you're at. Yes, you've got the pattern here of higher and lows, higher highs, which is bullish, but the market's unable to stay over that 18-day average. Yesterday, I brought it up cuz it was the first day over, got thrown back like that today. It's got to prove it can get up and over it. Then I can get excited about it. Not there yet.

[00:09:47]Uh when we look at this because you're under the 18-day average, the bias is down, the momentum is up, the market ran into the resistance at the 100-day and the 18-day average. Remember how often I tell you those averages are so important, and momentum has now corrected and it's out of being oversold. It happened that fast. By my definition, anytime you're over 30 in the slow stochastic, you're no longer in oversold territory. I admit I changed the formula on my slow stochastic from yours. If you're a subscriber of mine, a paid subscriber to one of my services, I will give you that formula and you can go in and change it to match what I do.

[00:10:29]In ARM, new high for the whole move. So, the bet here, and it's pretty simple, is that if Nvidia does well, everybody else is going to do great. And it's a good bet, and that's what you got going on. Costco back Not Costco, Cisco backed off today, and that's 2 days in a row where the market's near the lows. Be careful here.

[00:10:51]If the market closes under a 79 level in the slow stochastic, you open the door up for wherever the 18-day average is for that and price to come together. Tomorrow's a real important day in that market.

[00:11:05]Palo Alto Networks, they tried to decline early in the morning and then they had another outside day up. Again, you have the embedded reading, so you want to keep your eye on that. You really don't want to see today's lows taken out in that. Outside days are important on a chart. In this case, it's a continuation pattern. But when you violate it within a certain time frame after it's made, my research shows that it becomes a bull trap and the market tries to go the other way. Take my outside day course on the website and you learn that what that is.

[00:11:39]On Apple, you're still fully embedded.

[00:11:41]As I said, I like this. I mean, Apple to me is undervalued. I think this could be a $350 stock before you know it's going on.

[00:11:51]In Google, well, Google's spending a fortune to change how they're going to work. What What they've really done is so simple. I don't know which AI search engines or the apps is the right word you use. I use three of them.

[00:12:07]And when I look at them, what it came to me just like they're saying, why am I using any of them when my Google search bar, I should be able to do the same thing and they should be sharing in that revenue, whether they charge me or they make it from advertising, whatever they do on their website to make it. And they realize that. So, they are radically, for the first time in 20 some odd years, changing how this is going to operate.

[00:12:33]This is really a big event. And while the market's down right now, I'm quite excited about that.

[00:12:40]When you look at Oracle, the the battleground's clear. It's trying to hold the 18-day average of closes and prove it can do something with it. Real Real, an important day today. You had an outside day up. You are embedded. If the market can add to this, you'll lose the embedded reading potentially by closing over 21 and you open to come back up to wherever the 18-day average is.

[00:13:04]Tomorrow's a very important day in that market.

[00:13:07]In XLF, look at the huge reversal. You made the lowest low of this recent break coming down to those lows and add your turn. Why not? If suddenly interest rates are going to drop and they would if energy prices are going to fall, in my opinion at least they would, because energy prices down on a treaty with Iran, this gets a bid. Is there any truth to what we heard today? I have my doubts. I wouldn't be surprised that I want to wake up in the morning and hear there's a deal. I don't believe there is one. I think it's fiction.

[00:13:42]Lower highs, lower lows. Look where you went to in XLI. Two days in a row holding the 100-day average Bollinger band. That's the area of the shorts covered. It didn't say going long. That was the get me out of dodge.

[00:13:57]XLE it got hurt today for a reason. Number one, it's overbought. That was important. Number two, it's against the upper Bollinger band. And number three, the hope that Trump has pulled some magic out and Iran is listening to him.

[00:14:12]I think the only thing they're listening to is radio, not him.

[00:14:18]In GLD, you can see how you're getting your pop. Okay, and that's off of again, if the treaty came. It didn't. So, where are we going to be? I know in the futures we were up a couple of dollars tonight, but the other metals were mostly lower.

[00:14:33]I keep watching Jove because I think that the key number here, the battleground is right now, right here at the 18-day average. It's working off an overbought condition. It's come out of it on the close. These numbers are no longer over 70, but they're hanging there. So, I'm looking at that 988 support zone.

[00:14:53]Microsoft finally not falling apart, holding together against the combination of the 100-day average and the 18. I'm not saying it's going to build on something. It is caught between the upper and lower Bollinger band, and I think it's going to spin more sideways.

[00:15:11]When we look at BND, this was a hope and a prayer trade. Oh, we've got peace and we're down too much. Energy prices are coming down, so you get the bounce there.

[00:15:21]I think it's a sucker unless we wake up the peace.

[00:15:25]In the dollar index, right at the upper Bollinger band backing off, I refuse to give you any ideas on that or FXE. You know why? Cuz I want you to click up here.

[00:15:36]I want you to go on to the website and view the report that I put out. Really covers both of these markets. Up here, if you're watching me on YouTube, it's really that simple. And join me there. I wrapstein.com. Hope you like the other videos. I'll catch up with you with the morning flash update. Take care.