I track XRP's recent on chain data... we have a problem

[00:00:00]I've been tracking XRP's onchain data and we have a problem. Don't get me wrong, it's not a massive problem, but it is a problem that we need to talk about in a lot of detail so that we can all be aware of what's going on with XRP. So, hi, welcome back to the channel. If you're new, my name is Nick and this is one of those segments where I just grab the camera, I go for a walk, in this case through the woods and we just talk raw about what is going on with crypto. Now, in this case, we are talking about XRP today. Now, XRP's onchain data specifically and well, we'll be honest with you, a bit of a problem that is emerging. Now onchain data you can love it, you can hate it, you can dismiss it if you want, but it is just simply recording facts, right?

[00:00:52]So this is the first thing we need to kind of get out of the way because that's a bit of a hill. But when you um when you talk about onchain data, it can be misleading if you're making assumptions, right? Assumptions are definitely not what you're going to want to do when it comes to onchain data. So let's just kind of cover the facts here.

[00:01:13]Right now we are talking about payment activity on the XRP ledger. Now payment activity on the XRP ledger was doing very very well in 2025 around July where the price had actually peaked. We had over 1 million daily payment um or activity payment activity on the network, right? Individual transactions over a million of them daily and it was fantastic. We're now down 80% from that peak. So, you know, if we kind of reflect on the price action of XRP, July 2025 was also the peak in terms of the price action around $3.66.

[00:01:58]So to kind of couple the price action being down roughly 70%. The payment activity has also dropped by roughly 80%. So what am I talking about? Well in July 2025 the um I just do a pivot here. The uh payment activity on the XRP ledger it had recorded daily activity of around a million transactions a day. Right? That was whilst the price was significantly high and by October 2025 the payment activity had dropped. It had dropped to approximately half a million in just a short period of time. Since then it started trending down 400,000 and now most recently as of July 325,000 payment activities on the XRP ledger daily. So, we're talking a nion 80% drop from its peaks of July 2025 through to where it is today, just 12 months later.

[00:03:04]So, payment activity has definitely been a bit of a problem for the XRP ledger recently. Now, is that kind of grounds for concern? Should we be kind of uh a little bit cautious with it? What does that really mean? What's my opinions on on this? because obviously price action doing one thing and the onchain data when it comes to the payment activity is doing the same. Now, what I'm going to do is I'm just going to pause right here for a second. There seems to be a couple of people coming to walk on past me. So, I'm just going to stop it and then we'll be back. One second. All right, I'm back. That's the thing with these walk and talk videos and dog walkers and and all of that kind of stuff. That's it just gets a bit awkward. Gets a bit awkward. Anyway, let's go ahead and discuss what's going on then and what I think about this because the facts are the facts, right? Payment activity on the XRP ledger has been decreasing and so has obviously the price of the token.

[00:04:01]Now, does this mean that the adoption is cooling off? Does it mean that maybe enterprises were testing things and you know maybe that's one of the reasons that the actual payment activity has decreased? Right? I'm not so convinced and there's a couple of reasons why I think the data might be misleading if you just take it at surface level.

[00:04:25]Right? So the first thing we have to kind of consider is how the um XRP ledger has been increasing in certain areas, right? Such as real world asset tokenization, right?

[00:04:38]We've got over $4 billion of real world assets now tokenized and represented on the XRP ledger. We spoke about this the other day in terms of the commodities represented and and all of these kind of things, right? So one we've got payment activity decreasing but we've got RWA tokenization increasing. So that's an interesting contradiction in itself and these are just again onchain facts.

[00:05:05]Outside of that we also have developments with the XRP ledger right um these are for example the ability to now bundle more transactions together so you don't have to submit everything individually. So part of the decrease in payment activity is actually probably going to be represented by bundling, right? Bundling more of that information together into the transaction blocks and so forth. So there's many parts of that that's going to be going on as well. So I don't think it's a clean cut story that, you know, everyone should be panicking that, you know, the adoption is slowing down, right? I don't think that's really what's going on. I actually see this more as a a positive in the way that the XRP ledger maybe is getting utilized exactly as intended.

[00:05:56]And what I mean by that is that some of the recent developments with bundling allows for more data, more uh transactions to happen inside those bundles. So you don't have to submit individual transactions. Is that good?

[00:06:08]Is that bad? Well, if XRP's entire use case was just about capturing the transaction fee, that would be pretty bad, right? But we know that the XRP ledger and the XRP token in itself, the native token XRP, it is designed to be more than just a payments token, right?

[00:06:26]It is about being a bridge asset for liquidity and all all of those kind of things. So on the surface of this, and you'll probably see it across social media platforms, it could potentially be seen as a negative that the XRP ledger has declined by 80%.

[00:06:44]You'll probably see these big headlines all over the place, but they're going to miss some of the nuances because what the onchain data doesn't say is the kind of volume that sits behind those transactions, right? So the volume, the payment activity volume has decreased from over a million uh million payment activities daily to less than 400,000 to now roughly 325,000.

[00:07:11]So on the surface it kind of looks pretty bad, but that's because we're potentially missing the bigger piece of the puzzle, which would be how much volume is actually moving through that payment activity. has that volume increased or decreased right and we don't have the data at this particular point of this recording plus I would never remember the the numbers in detail so hopefully in due course I can do a deeper dive into the numbers and put together a proper studio video on it so that we can kind of actually get the factual information but on the surface the headline is screaming that you know the XRP ledger is dying and it's decreasing by 80%. But what if, you know, there was a million transactions in July 2025 that only represented maybe $1 per transaction, so over a million.

[00:07:59]But now maybe it's $10, right? We have $325,000.

[00:08:05]And actually, that is going to be $3.2 million of volume, right? We don't know those nuances and those details of it.

[00:08:11]So, I wouldn't want to call it as a bearish story without the full details to back up that claim. But you're probably going to see it all over social media about, you know, how it's gone down from over a million in a year to 325,000 or maybe you'll see 80% crash for XRP. There's going to be lots of people that look for the clickbaity titles and they'll try to kind of scare you out of your positions, no doubt, as well. But I think we need to hold off on judgment until we have the full details behind it because there's nuances here that are missing from the headlines that as of today, right? We don't know at this stage where where the volumes sit, right? Are the volumes 80% down too? Are they 90% down? Are they down but maybe only 10% down on what they were before?

[00:09:01]Right? And that changes how you would kind of perceive this news, right?

[00:09:05]Because on the surface of it, it would be very fearful. It would be creating panic. But in the reality of the situation, it could be vastly different.

[00:09:13]It might be really bullish if we're pushing more volume through smaller transaction counts, right? How would you feel? You can let me know your thoughts in the comments below about whether it was high transaction, low uh low volume or low transaction but high volume, right? That would change the the kind of approach to how you would feel about it, right? And [snorts] we don't have that nuance. We don't have that detail detail just yet. At the moment, the the headline screams 80% crash. Right?

[00:09:41]That's what caught my attention. That's why I wanted to put this video together because as an analyst, as someone who spent most of their working career before going full-time YouTube, I was an analyst, right? I looked at large pools of data. I analyzed and found patterns.

[00:09:57]A lot of people never appreciated that.

[00:09:59]They didn't want to acknowledge what the those patterns were saying, but that's what I spent my career doing. And as a result, I I know when I'm looking at something that is only halfbaked, right?

[00:10:10]We know that there's an agenda potentially behind that headline of 80% crash. Maybe it is just to get the clicks. Maybe it's all those kind of things, but the reality of the situation is it's an incomplete picture. you need the other half of the equation to be able to form a proper and sound analysis and judgment on the back of it. So, that's why I wanted to put this video out there because it sounds pretty crazy and it sounds like we've got a problem, hence the title of the video, right?

[00:10:37]Maybe that's a little misleading. You can let me know how you feel about the title in the comments below. But ultimately, that's kind of why I wanted to put this video together because it doesn't really make a lot of sense only having half of the argument and then trying to call one way or the other. But like I said, there's a contradictions, right? We obviously can see that RWAs and real world asset tokenizations are expanding on the ledger, right? We know the general direction of travel as well.

[00:11:03]So whether payment activity has decreased because actually more transactions or payment transactions are being bundled together or whether or not it's just a genuine lack of interest in the technology at the moment. And of course there's Clarity Act in the US as well which could also be you know a problem. Maybe in 2025 it was all about testing right maybe it's about proving concept but now they need clarity to come on in and cement XRP as a commodity you know in federal law that can prevent you know any kind of I guess agency US agency just doing a 180 on them right nobody wants to get caught off guard with that. So there's that kind of speculation and argument to be made as well. So I won't want to and I don't want to and I wouldn't make a claim to say that XRP's crash 80% in payment activity is an indication that the XRP ledger has not been chosen to be utilized at scale. It has failed its kind of experimentation. That would be very premature. It wouldn't be a very wise idea to make that conclusion.

[00:12:11]That's kind of my two cents. And of course, you know, we can see what's going on with the XRP token. We can see I actually put a video as well. Um, I think we'll go out tomorrow specifically taking a look at some of the things that are going on on the XRP ledger from a road map perspective. So, do watch out for that because the future looks pretty much positive, right? in terms of what is being built, the use cases around the XRP ledger and where XRP fits into that broader picture, right? Because it isn't just about, you know, payments anymore. That's that's just one small piece of what the XRP ledger is now working its way towards, right? We are talking about a full financial stack, right? And so things definitely changing. So definitely do check out that video tomorrow because it is going to be an interesting one that I don't think you're going to want to miss. But um when it comes to seeing the kind of payment activity declining alongside the price action, is that you know unusual? Is it uh disheartening?

[00:13:22]Does it frustrate you even more that the onchain data from a payment activity perspective is looking bearish, not bullish? Right? You can let me know your thoughts on all this in the comments down below. Whether you feel that it is a kind of misleading headline designed to shake you out of your positions, whether you feel there is more substance to it, but half the information is missing, or whether you think it's a done deal and the XRP has failed in what it was set out to do. You can let me know how you feel about it in the comments down below. But my my two cents is it's far too early to call. we need to wait for more data to come on in that can actually help us cement what's actually going on. Are payments becoming uh you know such a minor part and a minor role of the XRP ledger? Is it that transactions are being bundled together?

[00:14:16]So again, you're naturally going to see a decrease in that volume of payment activity, but actually the the value is actually higher, right? We don't know, but I'm waiting to basically see what that comes out like because only when you have the full set of data can you make a sound decision about whether you think the XRP ledger is failing or being successful. But that's going to wrap up this video today. So, a quick little walk through the woods to explain why you can't necessarily trust the headlines. found it useful, smash like button, subscribe if you want more content just like this, or if you prefer the studio stuff, make sure to smash that subscribe button.