The data reveals a significant structural decoupling in North American tourism, though it remains unclear if this is a conscious political boycott or a rational response to a weakening loonie. Regardless, the analysis exposes a massive blind spot in US economic expectations regarding its northern neighbor.
Deep Dive
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Deep Dive
9 Charts Confirm The Canadian Boycott Is Crushing US Tourism And It Gets WorseAdded:
Okay, so I have an article today that I want to share with everyone. And this one was sent to me by our good friend of the channel, Abby. And this article is packed with a lot of data. And some of the data that they share is crossings by land and air, domestic airfare costs, US destinations with the worst decline in seats, fuel costs, overnight visits to the US, best Canadian cities increased bookings, hotel prices rising in Canada, and countries with the biggest Canadian tourism growth. Now, that sounds like a lot to have in one article, but luckily there's a lot of charts and graphs in this one. So, I'm going to be showing these to everybody. And don't worry, if you're just listening or you're visually impaired, I'll do my best to describe the charts. But, if you've been following my channel, you know I prefer to see hard data and charts and graphs and not US tourism officials that are saying that everything is fine and that their businesses are thriving and they're having a great summer or winter or whatever it is. So, we'll go through all these charts together, and you can see the one on the bottom left, no, bottom right. It does show in the graph the slight increase when it came to April, but you can also see the big dip from March last year. So, I'll talk about this slide a little bit more later, but let's get started with the article. Now, I'm going to skip through some of this because if I read the entire thing, it's going to be like a 30-minute video. The first section, a one-/3 drop in US travel seems to be the boycott floor. US courts have curtailed Taco Tuesday tariffs and the president has somewhat toned down his verbal attacks, but Canada's travel boycott shows no signs of letting up. In April, the number of Canadian residents returning from trips to the US by vehicle or error was 30% lower than the same month in 2024, generally in line with where it's been for months. Other sources point to an even more dramatic decline. Research from the University of Toronto School of Cities based on cell phone activity data found that Canadians visit to US metropolitan areas have plummeted by 47. No, 42% year-over-year.
Now, I know some of you might think that the one-/3 drop seems to be the boycott floor. You might be insulted by that because initially I kind of took offense to that because I know we can do better.
But then again, I'm also contradicting myself cuz I did think that 2026 would bottom out. But this chart right here shows you that I was clearly wrong because the purple line is 2026 and you can clearly see January, February, and March it was below 2025. But for April, yeah, it's like literally like a millimeter above, which I read somewhere, I think if you translate it in numbers, it was like a 1% increase or something. But I love how US tourism officials and businesses are saying that this is going to be the turnaround.
Yeah, April's the month. Everything's going to turn back to normal. Now, the problem with that assumption is that nothing has fundamentally changed. If anything, it's actually gotten worse, and it gets worse by the day. So, my prediction for this chart, I don't know.
I I really don't know. But I do know that probably June and July will have that same bump because of the World Cup.
It's not going to be the bump that they expected, but it is going to rise a little bit. Moving on to the next section, war and soaring oil prices are rapidly pushing airfares up this summer.
US military operations in Venezuela, a fuel crisis in Cuba, and flare-ups of violence in Mexico were already putting pressure on airfares before the Middle East war set jet fuel prices soaring.
Global carriers jumped to implement search charges as international airfare spiked more than 5% year-over-year in midappril according to Kayak and were up as much as about 15% by early May.
Travel hotspots such as Lisbon and London saw the biggest growth with ticket prices to those destinations rising as much as 16 and 18% respectively. Now with the corresponding chart, you can clearly see where everything went haywire. And this chart is only showing the domestic airfare in Canada, but I'm pretty sure the international chart would look the same, maybe a little bit more in terms of like the spread. But when I look at this chart, I think about all the people around the world outside of the United States that have no relations with the United States and just trying to mind their own business. They're now dealing with flight prices that are going up or even flights that are being cancelled.
It's starting to become the new norm. So yeah, we know who to blame for this one.
Moving on to the next chart. According to Serum, Las Vegas saw the biggest percentage change in seat capacity from Canada between 2024 and 2026, down 35% 20, no 221,545 seats. Canadians made up the largest portion of foreign visitors to Vegas and still did last year despite more than a 17% drop in visitors according to the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority. The city has rolled out the welcome act to lure back Canadians with cash bleeding casinos and hotels sometimes offering northern visitors the option to pay on par with the US Greenback. Yeah, that's talking about that stupid CEO. Now, you can see from this chart here, I mean, Las Vegas is the darkest red, then LA, and then all the rest of them seem to be about the same. But you just got to keep in mind, too, that this is just talking about the drop in number of available seats. It's not mentioning how many planes and routes have actually been cancelled altogether. We know that Air Transat is not even flying to the US anymore, and WestJet and Air Canada, they've canceled a whole bunch.
Moving on, Canada's travel boycott is on a scale unlike any other country.
Several other large developed countries such as Germany and France have pulled back from US travel. However, the flow of travelers from those countries in the US is generally onetenth of the visit by Canadians. What's more, those declines were partially offset by increases in travelers from countries such as Britain, Japan, and Israel. A man, what's going on Britain and Japan?
In fact, Canada's travel backlash has been significantly blunted by an increase in visitors from Mexico of all places despite immigration crackdowns targeting Latinos and Taco Tuesday's threats of mass deportations. Now, that's one country I don't really understand. I mean, Mexico, their citizens are like number one targets.
It's part of a multi-year increase in travel from Mexico as people cross the US border communities to shop and visit family. Okay, family. I guess I understand that part. Last year, Mexico topped Canada as a source of travelers to the US for the first time outside of the CO9 pandemic. Yeah, Mexico, you can take that title. I I'm fine with that.
That said, Canadians spend far more when they go to the US. Our absence caused the US travel services balance for 2025, the amount that gets spent by tourists to the US, less what Americans spend abroad, to shrink at the fastest pace since at least the late '90s, seriously undermining the White House's claim that Taco Tuesday has done more for American tourism than anyone. I don't know how anyone can think that Taco Tuesday is doing a great job for tourism. I mean, it's the complete opposite. The facts are there. The businesses are crying.
How much more proof do you need? Going to the corresponding chart, you can see Canada. We're in the lead when it comes to like not going to the United States.
Then Germany, France, and then China.
But on the other side, on the right side, you got UK with just above zero.
I'm not really too sure what the scale is, but then you also have Mexico, Japan, and Israel. But I wouldn't be worried. As the article said, the travelers from Japan as well as Britain and Israel, they're only onetenth of a visit compared to Canadians. Moving on to the next section, while Canadians boycott the US, more Americans are heading here. After a bumpy start to last year that accompanied the launch of Taco Tuesday's trade war against most of the world, Canada's tourism sector saw influx of international visitors, spending by foreign travelers jumped by 3.6% in the fourth quarter, the fastest growth in 2 years, according to Statistics Canada. Uh, trouble has arrived in the room. I'm sure you can hear her. Whether that momentum can carry through to 2026 is the question.
Well, I think a lot of Canadians are going to say, "Hold my beer." Of course, it will. Now, I'm not just saying that because I want the boycott to grow. I mean, in order for things to reverse, there would have to be substantial change in the United States, which is not going to happen in the next 3 years.
Anyways, back to the article. It helps that US travelers are flocking north. In March, the number of US residents entering Canada jumped 28% from the same month the year before. Wow, I didn't know that. Thanks to all the US citizens that are visiting Canada. That fits the US data from Chase Travel, the travel portal for Chase Banks credit card holders, which shows the bookings from US travelers to Canada up 26% this year compared to last year. Now, this chart is a thing of beauty if you ask me because despite everything that's going on between our two countries, US citizens are choosing to come to Canada.
Now, I'm going to read out these numbers for everybody in the in the corresponding cities. B 99% growth.
Quebec City 85%. Richmond what? Richmond like Richmond British Columbia I I don't understand why is there anyways Richmond 78% Whistler 68% Halifax 58% Victoria 50% Vancouver 38% Colona 37 Montreal 28 Ottawa 27 Edmonton 11 Calgary 10 Toronto and 5. Is there another Richmond in Canada somewhere like outside of BC or maybe on the east somewhere? I I'm just really surprised Richmond's there. Unless they're counting like people arriving from YVR airport. I have nothing against Richmond. I'm just surprised it's on this list. So, I think everybody should be proud of these numbers. And when I say proud, be proud that people still want to come to our country, not like the United States. I mean, with everything going on right now, the situation with Canada's tourism could be a lot worse. I honestly can't express how much praise I actually get for being Canadian, like living overseas. Of course, people mistake me for American when I speak. They say, "Are you from America?" I'm like, "No." Sometimes I say, "Hell no." And when I tell them I'm from Canada, the attitude always changes. And they say they would love to be able to visit my country. Although it's a little bit far from them, you know, being halfway around the world.
Canada is not a perfect country. I tell them that as well. No country is perfect. But what we have that the United States doesn't is our reputation.
So, I want everybody to remember that.
The next section, they talk about the cost of hotel rooms in Canada is surging. I don't know why this article jumps all over the place. Along with domestic airfare, hotel prices have surged across major Canadian cities, including Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal, though not always in tandem. The average 3-month annual change in room prices reversed sharply for Toronto and Vancouver last July. As the first trade war summer kicked into full gear, Canadians look for ways to support the local economy with their vacation days in the dollars, and the two cities continue to see gains well into the summer. Toronto in particular saw spikes of 12 and 10% in visitors from Britain and Germany respectively as Europeans look for alternatives to the US. This was a large part due to the political climate. According to a study published last year on behalf of destination Ontario and destination Toronto. Now from this chart, you can definitely see that Toronto and Vancouver hotels are way more expensive than Montreal. And the levels that Vancouver and Toronto are at right now, I don't think it's going to go down until the FIFA World Cup is done. And yeah, I just did a spot check on hotels in Vancouver during a FIFA game. They're still over like what $700 all the way up to like a,000 on game day. And I spot checked for like non-game days anywhere from like 400 to 600. So yeah, that's why I'm not coming home until after the FIFA World Cup. I'm not paying that crap. All right, moving on to the last screenshot in chart.
Canadians are looking abroad for travel.
Canadians are looking abroad for travel alternatives to the US. After a large number of Canadians canceled their US travel plans last year, many vacation closer to home, but many turned their focus to international markets, particularly in Europe, Asia, and Mexico, which also the volume of trips by Canadian residents jumped between 12 and 16% last year. The options for Canadians looking for non- US destinations this year, is more complicated. Cuba, which has historically been a popular draw, is in the grips of the US enforced fuel embargo that has prompted airlines to suspend flights to countries until October. Mexico's tourist industry was rocked by drug cartel violence in February, though the booking data from Flight Center shows another uptick this year. Now, what's on the screen right now are the countries that are benefiting the most from us Canadians not going to the United States. I'll read them out one by one. And this is the year-over-year change between summer 2025 and 2026. The sources from Flight Center Travel Group Canada, and I guess they are predicting and going by the bookings that are already done for 2026.
But let's go one by one. Japan 52%, Italy 15%, Ireland 15%, Switzerland 11, Greece 11, Dominican Republic 10, Spain 8, Mexico, Mexico 6, Netherlands 4. Now, I really wish we could like jump into the alternate timeline, like the the normal timeline, and see what these numbers would be if the United States didn't go on a meth binge. Like, if there was no boycott and if there was no war in the Middle East, how different would these numbers actually be? I have a few friends that used to go to the United States quite a bit and this year for spring break instead of taking their kids to Disneyland in California, they took them to Japan instead. I don't think we'll ever know the true impact of it or the, you know, actual detailed numbers. But to be honest, these charts are good enough for me. And as long as I keep seeing reports of US businesses or tourism destinations that are basically begging us to come back, I'm satisfied with that. I mean, of course, I would love to have these numbers higher. I mean, they claim that what, a third of Canadians are not going down. I'd love to have it at 50%. But I also have to realize even at a third, we're causing a lot of damage. So, I hope me reading out this article and showing you the screenshots and graphs and charts helps to give everybody a good reminder what our current position is when it comes to the boycott. I know a lot of people don't like me using the word boycott anymore because it's just our new way of life. But, I've said it so many times since starting this channel, it's just like runs off the tip of my tongue. But I do hope everybody got a bit of an update from this video because these days we're not going to get these kind of reports from mainstream media, both sides of the border. To close off this video, I would like to thank Karen for posting this photo on the Guard the Leaf Hey Cafe page and she took this photo from Kathleen Lake in the Yukon. I know a few weeks ago I did ask the community for more photos of the territories.
Well, the community definitely responded. So, I want to thank everybody who sent me photos from the territories and thank you Karen for sharing this with the community. Oh, and one more thing before I sign off for this video.
I would like to give a shout out to all my moderators on the different platforms, whether it's on the Discord server, Reddit, YouTube, or the Hey Cafe website. It's been an interesting last two weeks and I finally realized that I don't have to go to every battle myself.
Yo, give me 2 minutes. Please, please, 2 minutes. Anyways, what I was saying, I realized I don't have to go to every battle myself. And I do appreciate the moderators on all the platforms for helping to keep the peace. But not only that, the GTL community members as well.
It's really nice to see everybody come together when the support is needed. So, thank you again everyone. All right, I got to get going. Somebody wants attention. If you found any value in anything I said today or you want to hear more from a Canadian and international perspective without the US media bias, make sure you hit that like and subscribe button below. That way, you'll be notified on my future videos.
And if you want to see more of my videos, check out the ones that are going to show up on your screen shortly.
Thanks everyone. I'll catch you in the next one.
Ha.
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