If Bitcoin Repeats This… The Next Move Will Shock Everyone

Added: 2026-05-06

[00:00:00]Do you believe in new all time high of BTC this year or the next one or you believe in a deep bottom for the BTC under the 40k or even the 25k again?

[00:00:10]Write in the comment below, but in this video guys, I would like to show you the a few different metrics. Of course, it's not like a magic. It's just additional information for your analysis, your actions, what to do with the BTC now.

[00:00:25]Long-term holder cost basis.

[00:00:28]Like you can see, it's a last uh green line.

[00:00:33]Of course, every single cycle while the BTC hit the new all time high, that line, a long-term cost basis, going up also. And now, it's around 48k.

[00:00:46]Previously, from the all time high in November 2021, we dropped it down to in June 2022, right? After the uh let's say six, around 9 months, we dropped it down to test this uh this line.

[00:01:02]Even test the orange line. Orange line is coin time price.

[00:01:07]All right. What we can see now?

[00:01:10]So, uh it's October, and in the next uh what months going to be the same uh time, right? Uh if we count by days, uh the same like it was in 2022 from all time high uh to test this block, to test this line. So, what if this uh summer, for example, this summer we're going to test the long-term holder cost basis. Do you believe in it? I honestly not.

[00:01:40]It's not because of extra bullish. No, because uh the every single, like the people call it the cycle, the BTC will become less volatile, so it drop less and the pump less. In this case, uh I don't believe even in some 250k for the BTC in the next two or the five years. Is it possible? Yes, of course. But I think the BTC will be less volatile if not not something extraordinary happening with the world in the world with the dollar, with the gold, you know? Mm, but uh BTC prove us it's not a hedge or the when we got some war in the world, the big investors not blindly go and uh put all money like a savings into BTC.

[00:02:27]No, they first go into the gold. After that, maybe some part of that uh profit or some part of that uh money liquidity inflow into the BTC.

[00:02:37]Like you can see, the wallet price is 148k.

[00:02:41]Now, the line also dynamic. This cycle we tested several times like in March 2024. After that, here we tested that line wallet price didn't hit that line in October 2025. Like conclusion guys, I think this line wallet price also will curve down after the few months, maybe. And my take is this year not this year, maybe. Maybe this this year or the next one, I think the BTC will hit the new all time high, didn't test the long-term holder cost basis, right? Line 48k or 50k.

[00:03:20]Hit the new all time high form like new liquidity sweep, not like a double double top like in 2021, but we hit the 139k, for example, 145. Everybody starts screaming we're going to the moon to the uh 151 200s uh 50 300. You remember every single time when we hit some over the 100k, everybody talk about absolutely nonsense numbers. And this going to be the absolutely the same story. That's why I think this line also will go down, not that fast, right? But I think around 145 100s 39 is going to be the next stop.

[00:04:03]That's why now we're just in the middle.

[00:04:05]We passed this one, so it's true mean price. We already around here. Now, like here. Once again guys, we can't compare the 2022 and 2026.

[00:04:14]It was a totally different time. In the world, it's just a uh war in Ukraine begin.

[00:04:21]Right? After the new all time high.

[00:04:23]Short-term holder cost basis. They will become the long-term holders just because of uh time. And their price now in April or today, it's 78k 7870. So, basically, they are uh in some losses. What does it mean? It means if they hold some big amount of BTC, they can start in panic selling.

[00:04:49]And the big guys absorb that and pump it higher. And one more time like it usually happen, here. Short-term uh holders, they buying.

[00:05:01]And after that, they out because of panic, they buying higher, they out of panic. And this model is uh continue uh all the time.

[00:05:12]That's why based on K cost basis models guys, I think we will not drop to the long-term holder cost basis to the 48k this year. No, uh but at the same time, I don't believe that we're going to hit the 150 or 100s uh or 200k uh this year or the next one. The next model guys, it's unchained original price models. We not hit this one MVRV level again because we hit it this twice or once once in 2021. That's why I truly believe in the May and the April 2021 it was a real top, the real all time high for the BTC. In autumn 2021, we just a sweetly liquidity right and hit the top.

[00:05:57]This last four years we didn't see the parabolic move on a BTC like it was uh from the COVID dump. One more time, it's a one more confirmation, so every new year the BTC will be less volatile like S&P 500. It's going to be the after the five years will be so boring market. And after the 10 years, I guess we will uh even satisfied with with a BTC 25 or 30% gains during the year. So, so be ready for that. And so, what will be with the altcoins, I have no idea.

[00:06:30]Right, so what we can see now? Coin time price. It's 51k 700. Lines are dynamic and going higher. Balance balance price is 40k. Previously, here we tested the balance price in June 2022 and rebound, but FTX collapse happened. We tested the balance price in COVID dump March 2020.

[00:06:55]And the tested it's in November 18.

[00:06:58]Should we test this balance price now or not?

[00:07:04]Honestly, I don't think so we will.

[00:07:08]So, now we just stuck around the true mean price. Under that is realized price of BTC. It's 54k.

[00:07:17]Lines are dynamic.

[00:07:19]And yes, I not believe uh I don't believe in BTC under the 40k or under the 38k or even the 25 or the 10k like some people call us. So, here delta price 33.

[00:07:33]So, we never dropped to the delta price basically, right? So, but I believe we can dump this summer to the realized price again. But lines are dynamic and till that time, it can be retest of the buy line of my custom indicator set, what I showed you custom one of indicator from my custom indicator set, it's take profit. So, we can come back and test the daily buy line on a BTC.

[00:07:59]Lines are dynamic, so it's it will be around 59k.

[00:08:04]I believe in it. I believe in it this summer, even this summer 2026. So, I'm waiting. But I'm same time, I believe in new all time high in I'm not sure this year, but the next one, I truly believe in 139. If we zoom in and double check local zones since January 2025. Here, the wallet price at this current moment it's 148, but like you can see, the lines are dynamic because in November it was like 156.

[00:08:34]And now it's almost like 10k down, right? That's why I truly believe the most negative scenario for the BTC for the summer, it's a drop and the test the 200 EMA. One take, but the lines are dynamic. Now it's 60k.

[00:08:53]And it will be around, I don't know, between the 59 to 62. This 64 even. I I think yes, we can retest this this line.

[00:09:06]But not drop under the 50k.

[00:09:09]Wallet price I showed you uh true mean price. We are just stuck in it.

[00:09:15]Even traded a long time period under.

[00:09:18]That's why I think for the summer, we can retest the 200 daily EMA, reject it 84k, right? And that close the all uh main above the CME gap before the Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meeting in uh 15 May.

[00:09:36]And after that, crash it down uh 20k this summer to the 64, for example.

[00:09:44]And uh sweep this liquidity. Maybe this one also.

[00:09:49]And that time it's going to be the test of 200 EMA on a weekly. And it's going to be the bottom bottom for the BTC. Top in cloud price models. like you can see also guys here.

[00:10:01]This is a since since January somewhere four on the daily, right? And it's uh this one it's a short short-term holder plus MVRV 98k uh around 97k line. We didn't test that line and we didn't test any of these lines this cycle.

[00:10:26]And if we zoom out to the full history, like you can see we all the time when we chop it and reach at the end of the cycle if you you like this terminology like a cycle because I don't.

[00:10:39]Uh we always finish the right inside that cloud. This time we didn't. It's around 159k.

[00:10:48]But of course, cycle four, I don't believe we're going to hit 140 59k uh because uh the cloud also dynamic, right? And I think we're going to uh finish the right when this cloud start curve down around Write in a comment guys, what do think about BTC?

[00:11:14]Shh. Will we chop Will we hit the new all-time high next year or this year or we will hit the new Not not all-time low, but will we hit the new low uh on the 50k this year or the next one? In what camp you're now?

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