BITCOIN and ALTCOINS UPDATE - 28 MAY 2026 | #105

本站添加: 2026-05-30

[00:00:06][music] >> Hello.

[00:00:10]Hello.

[00:00:13]Welcome friends to Alpha Beta Soup.

[00:00:16]I'm TXMC.

[00:00:18]Well, today we're going to talk about Bitcoin and the crypto markets cuz things are moving.

[00:00:23]Before we get started, if you enjoy my content, make sure you're subscribed to my channel and hit the like button.

[00:00:30]Trying to get YouTube to pump me back out to my subscribers because many of you have told me that you don't even see my new videos show up in your feed. So, whatever you can do to help is greatly appreciated. Now, let's get started. So, if we rewind back to April, to the first time we talked about Bitcoin price on here since I got back into content, we were looking at this boxed area here in the '80s and low '90s and I said that that was the place that mattered to me.

[00:00:58]I even made a tweet around the same time as the video and I said the reaction in this area is all that matters. It may take a few weeks to play out as the high time frames are in play. A decent swing short could take us back to the low '70s. Then it's a question of whether structure has actually turned because the trend has not yet. This is what we talked about in the video. You could see price was picking back up, getting up into this resistance zone. Well, if we look at the chart, it is now played out.

[00:01:27]This was the week when I made the video and we had that post and that talk and now 5 weeks later we have pushed up into the area of resistance that was also the 200-day moving average that you can see here in the blue. We rejected off of that pretty cleanly and now we are back below the weekly open from when we were first talking about this. Price did spend a few weeks pushing up through the weekly EMA bands and is now breaking down back below them. Just like we said, this may take a few weeks to play out and that's why I stressed so much to you guys in the last couple of Bitcoin update videos that it's really important to be contextually aware of when higher time frames are in play and allow them to play out. If you're looking at something testing a weekly level, maybe you shouldn't look at the 5-minute chart. So, the question now is will we find some kind of support down in this area here? Let me change the color so it looks a little different.

[00:02:24]This is what we've also talked about, right? This seemed like a logical area of structural resistance just based on the price chart alone where maybe we can find some resistance. If we go down here and look at the low time frames on 4-hour, you can see it's kind of bouncing around here. We got a bit of a reaction, but not much of a bounce to the upside. Not much life. So, maybe we just keep going lower and we push deeper down into this zone before we find out if it's the low.

[00:02:50]There's still time for this to turn higher, certainly. We talk about TA, it's just probabilities. The market can do whatever it wants. But, from a weekly perspective, this is pretty much the area that you really want to see it turn around. You don't want to see price dancing around down here in the low 60s because then it's pretty much assured that you're going to retest the low bear market low. From a range perspective, I've seen this range going around on the timeline a bit. You can see it's been respected pretty well. We pushed up inside of it and now we're breaking back down below outside of the range. So, again, we're looking at this zone right here as potentially a place to see a reaction. It's possible price gets in here, chops around for a couple of weeks, and we move back higher, and then we'd have our higher lows. That is still possible, but it requires patience and not getting too sucked into the overly bearish or overly bullish perspectives that you see floating around on socials these days.

[00:03:49]If we zoom in on this just a little bit more, some of the levels I said were important to see respected were first the monthly open. Well, we've now broken cleanly below that. We're near the end of May, but monthly opens are usually important places where you tend to see reactions. We're below that. We're also below the 2025 yearly lows. We've pushed cleanly through that on the daily time frame, and now we're below previous week low, which is a lower time frame, but we're just blasting through levels that you would hope to see reactions at. Now we're down at the midpoint of the April range, which is also confluent with, as we said, this green box that we were maybe looking for a reaction in. You'll see I have a white box drawn here down on my daily time frames. And this is confluent with a value area flip that I noticed on the market profile. If you'll recall, we looked at this chart in the previous video. This is market profile, and each one of these boxes is a period of time that was spent at this price level. Here we are in the month of May.

[00:04:51]This is a monthly time frame, and this is the combined February and March profiles. Well, there is some confluence here where the high end of the value area for February and March is confluent with the low end of the value area from April. We draw a little box on here.

[00:05:09]It's this area right here.

[00:05:11]Well, this is 71 to 72. It's this white box. So, if we're looking at a daily time frame, if you're trying to trade this, not necessarily looking at it from a cycle perspective, but just putting on a trade, this little demand zone here might be an interesting place to look for a reaction. So far, there's not much of a long trigger, at least not based on my personal system, but it's something that I'm keeping my eye on today on a shorter time frame to maybe see if we get some kind of a spike low, and then maybe we get a bounce. Maybe it turns around in here and bounces is up into this area, test these lows that we broke through super cleanly, or maybe back up into here. That might be a target one and a target two on a trade, but I'm not giving trading advice. Just kind of talking through my frame of reference and how I'm thinking about these levels.

[00:06:00]But just generally speaking, this does look pretty weak and I wouldn't really want to see it spending a lot of time below these levels. Back down below 70k, back down into the 60s. That's just not what you want to see. If there's going to be strength, then it needs to represent itself. You need to see it somewhere. Otherwise, you're just kind of stepping in front of a train. Like if you go down on a lower time frame, like a 6-hour, ever since we broke below the monthly open, you notice how each candle is lower than the candle before it. We haven't even broken the highs of previous 6-hour candles yet. That's called one time framing, and it's a good way to identify a pretty strong trend.

[00:06:39]So, you know, on a 6-hour perspective, cuz that's what we're looking at right now, you would at least want to see a higher high on the candles. We haven't even gotten that yet. So, patience is warranted. Let's flip over and look at my momentum charts. So, the last time that I made a video, something that I need to work that I need to call out here. Last time I made a video, we were looking at the daily levels, right? And we had this daily RSI, and I was pointing out Let me make this a little bigger here.

[00:07:09]I was pointing out how we'd had a lower low on the RSI, and it hasn't yet had not yet been confirmed by price, right?

[00:07:16]And I said maybe this is showing continued downside momentum.

[00:07:21]Well, some of you pointed out in the comments, and rightfully so, that if this had actually turned into a bottom and gone higher and price had gone higher, we'd had a higher low in price and a lower low in the RSI, that would be a hidden bullish divergence, and it would be potentially a sign of strength, a sign of continuation, and it would have shown that we'd stayed above the 50 level, the median level on the RSI. You were right to call that out, and I didn't describe that potential outcome in the previous video. That was a mistake of mine, but I wasn't ready to call for that yet because I wanted to actually see if this turned into a low, and it hadn't yet, right? It was still pointing down.

[00:08:03]Well, as we can see, the day's have now played out, and we have continuation lower on the RSI, and now price is below this low that we were looking at as our reference point. We're continuing lower. The last couple of bounces on RSI have been below 50, which indicates weakness, and now price is corroborating that. We also have a bearish cross on the daily 12 21 EMA bands, which is the EMA band of choice that I use. My buddy XO got me put on to this, and I've found it very useful for helping to corroborate momentum ideas, and you can see it's now breaking down below the midpoint here because we've got a bearish cross. Maybe that means we now trend lower for a little bit. If we look at it on a weekly perspective, we can see price spent a few weeks above the bands. This is the same perspective as we were looking at back over here. It pushed a pushed up through the bands for a couple of weeks, now it's back below it. It's back below the open of the week where we made the video talking about it, and the EMA bands couldn't even get a bullish cross on this move up. It happened so fast and spent so little time above them that the bands stayed in their bearish trend. They're still here below the median on the MACD.

[00:09:15]Additionally, RSI here got capped at 50. It couldn't even get above that on this push, and on the same push, the stock RSI, the stochastic, got all the way back up to the top and peaked out while RSI got stuck at 50.

[00:09:33]Now it's rolling back over. RSI is rolling over. Price is back through the bands. So, generally, it just kind of looks like [ __ ] It's still possible, as we've said, still possible it finds some support and moves up, but it'll probably take a couple of weeks. It's not something I would expect to happen tomorrow unless there's a news-driven catalyst of some kind. So, the broad picture for me on Bitcoin is one of patience, but generally corroborating my bearish lean of the last couple of months. I mean, I've been bearish since October. I was one of the first people that tweeted, "Hey, maybe it's the top."

[00:10:10]in October, but I was open to the possibility that this could be the low.

[00:10:13]I still am open to that. But so far, the market is not really showing any indication that it has established the low yet. What we would need to see is price settling out and turning back higher. Hopefully, the stock RSI comes down here and starts pushing higher.

[00:10:30]RSI pushes higher, maybe doesn't go below 26.8. That would be great. Those would be bullish indications, and we'd need to see it corroborated by price on the weekly time frame.

[00:10:41]Now, just a quick word on the altcoin markets. We haven't looked at these charts that closely because altcoins have been in a just completely useless state now for quite a while. They've been in a bear market since 2025, the beginning of 2025. This was right after Trump got elected, right? The kind of couple of months there right after the election before the inauguration was a bit of a honeymoon phase, and crypto generally has been structurally lower highs and lower lows ever since. But I have a breadth momentum indicator that I use to kind of add confluence to whether or not I think crypto is turning higher.

[00:11:16]You can see it it was pushing higher even though the actual chart of the crypto market was not moving up that high. The general rise of coins was more the general rate of change of coins, I should say, was more positive than negative for most of March and April, but it's now curled and is pushing lower and is now below the longer-term moving average. So, this is kind of hinting here at perhaps more downside for alts.

[00:11:46]This is not a predictive tool, this is a look-back tool. It's using moving averages and the advanced decline of crypto coins to kind of tell you what the market is doing, but cyclically it's been pretty useful at telling me when momentum is going to turn. So, that's something I'm keeping my eye on.

[00:12:05]I don't trade this indicator, but it just doesn't show a lot of strength and I point this out because some people have been trying to call for a fall in Bitcoin dominance, which would suggest outperformance by altcoins. Maybe that happens, but it could also happen to the downside by Bitcoin just selling off more. And that is potentially able to happen because there is more exposure in Bitcoin than there are in alts at this point because alts have just been decimated. I do want to touch on a couple of altcoin charts that I looked at recently. This is Cardano, ADA, and I hadn't looked at this in quite a while.

[00:12:43]I traded this back here in late 2023 when we first got this pop. I traded it from about 30, right around in here, up to about 65, somewhere in here I let go of this whole trade.

[00:12:54]That's the only time I've ever really owned any Cardano and I haven't looked at the chart in a while, but man, it's looking really sad. And if it gets below this low from February, we're talking about touching January 2021 prices. Just completely retracing half a decade all by itself. That is absolutely brutal and I mean, I can't say it's not deserved.

[00:13:19]This coin is completely [ __ ] worthless. Sorry if you have some exposure to it. Maybe you've made some money. Hopefully you have a lower cost basis than where we are right now. But, if you're still holding this waiting for this to turn higher, man, you are really not getting any evidence that it's going to do that. At least not right now.

[00:13:37]Solana also looking super weak. And man, it's just crazy how this chart completely swept the all-time high and then just never saw it again. Straight down ever since. Looking pretty weak here. Not as weak as Cardano, uh but there's currently no signs of life. And it couldn't even get it on a closing weekly basis, couldn't even get above this high from March on the recent push.

[00:14:01]Same thing with Ethereum. I mean, I guess, you know, it did the kind of it did a kind of similar move to Solana, right? Pushed through all-time highs and then just completely collapsed. But again, similarly, couldn't get a higher close above March at any point in the last few weeks. And now it's pushing lower. And, you know, something else about Ethereum uh that I was just looking at earlier this morning and I thought was kind of crazy is if we look at the stablecoin market cap. And this is a bit of a tangent, but I just wanted to make this comment. You know, there's been a lot of belief over the years that as stablecoins grew in demand and size, that it would buoy the Ethereum token because many many stablecoins are on Ethereum rails. But, what we've found out, which is what I thought all along, but I just haven't really pushed that idea too much, uh but what I thought all along was that there's no reason why coins being on the Ethereum protocol requires the Ethereum token to get a huge bid, for the ETH token to get a huge bid. It's just gas, right? People don't hoard fuel most of the time. You kind of buy it as you need it. So, being gas by itself is not really a reason for Ethereum, the token, the ETH token, to be worth hundreds of billions of dollars additionally year after year as stablecoins grow. Well, this chart is fascinating to me because in the last couple of big downturns for ETH, it bounced at the stablecoin market cap, right? Really cleanly in 2022 and pretty cleanly here in 2025. Well, now we've seen 3 months unable to get any closing basis above the stablecoin market cap. We've got these big wicks here and now we're below the lows from April on Ethereum.

[00:15:47]So, that's structurally pretty shitty looking. I don't own any ETH. I've I've had some at different points in time, never really made anything from it.

[00:15:56]Uh and I didn't have a huge amount of it to begin with, but now I have zero. And just looking at this here really seems to kind of prove the point that ETH, the token, is not necessary for stablecoins to thrive. And in fact, it has very little reason to exist other than just being gas. There's no real reason for people to hoard it in gigantic amounts.

[00:16:18]That doesn't mean Ethereum is dead, that it's going to zero, uh but there's clearly a bit of a changing of the tides here on this trend. Just look at it. So, this is something I'll probably check back into over time.

[00:16:29]Bringing it back to Bitcoin, I think the most important thing to do is to watch here in the low 70s, 70, 71, 72, basically where we are now, and watch for potentially a spike low, kind of exhaust some energy, and maybe we can get a bounce back up a little bit higher. We'll just have to see. It's not a trade I'm recommending anyone try to take, uh but you know, if we're just looking for some optimism, this is really the spot you need to see it. You need to see it in here. Uh because if price gets down below this, I've got to think that is up for threat, and who knows what happens after that. Remain patient, continue to frame yourself against the weekly trend, right? Weekly time frames. Give it more than a couple of days to tell you what's going to happen. If you're looking to be a long-term investor on Bitcoin and you don't really care where the low exactly is, well, it's down like 40% from the high. So, if you're thinking about 42%.

[00:17:28]So, if you're thinking about DCA'ing, you know, averaging into a position or taking some nibbles, this seems like a pretty decent place to do that. Maybe it does go lower, you'd have to be prepared for that. And it also means that, you know, if if the more bearish scenario takes place, if it gets down here, it could spend a long time down here. It could spend months down here. It doesn't have to just spike and then turn around and go higher. That's actually less realistic. This The first thing I drew, this, is far more likely if we actually get down back into these levels. But if it's going to turn around up here, it could be sooner and then we could start marching higher. We just need to see the market actually show strength rather than guessing at it or trying to come up with some complicated thesis as to why it should be bullish. Just wait and try to observe strength. A strong market will look strong and currently it looks pretty weak.

[00:18:23]Make sure you're following me on Twitter at TXMC Trades. This is where I post a lot of my charts and ideas and my DMs are open if you ever have any questions.

[00:18:33]So, with that, I'm going to let you guys go. It's the last day of school for my kids, so we're going to go have some fun when he gets back here in a little couple hours. I know I haven't been super Johnny-on-the-spot with making videos really regularly. It's been uh challenging to kind of get back into that rhythm, but I'm doing my best. So, stick with me. Continue to engage with my videos. Let me know what you'd like me to talk about in future videos if you have any thoughts.

[00:18:57]Um and we will talk again very soon. So, until next time, friends, take care of yourselves. Take care of each other. Uh don't let people on Twitter get you too emotional one way or the other. Just step back and look at the chart for yourself. If it's strong, it will look strong.

[00:19:14]And that's all I have.

[00:19:16]So, until next time, cheers, everyone.