Inflation THREE TIMES hotter than expected...

Added: 2026-05-15

[00:00:00]So inflation comes in three times hotter than expected this morning on PPI. And yet you mean to tell me markets are trading at all-time highs? Are you kidding? That's what I'd be saying right now if I just simply didn't understand that markets don't care. The only thing that matters is semiconductors, data centers, electronic equipment manufacturing, and cyber security names.

[00:00:17]You've got to make hay while the sun shines. And in all seriousness, yes, there was a subtle defensive rotation under the hood today, but it's nothing that seemed to derail the markets for now. Remember, a rotating market is one that may struggle to go higher, but it will not crash. So, welcome back to the Trade Brigade Midweek Show, where we'll take a look through all of the data points and we'll build a logical trade plan. My name is Matt, and if you're new here, hit the thumbs up button and subscribe. For additional resources, check out the links listed down below in the description. And stay tuned until the end of today's show. I've got six additional trade ideas to share with you that you won't want to miss. With that said, let's jump right into the charts.

[00:00:49]So, we'll kick things off tonight with a closer look at the SPY daily time scale.

[00:00:52]And the first thing we should figure out is what's going on here from a trend perspective. It's fairly straightforward. Of course, this has been a monster uptrend ever since the ceasefire was announced. This is the all-time high. It's the highest high in the trend count, which means if the market were to pull back, there is plenty of room to set a higher low.

[00:01:08]Although there's no indication of a pullback looking imminent, I would be fine with the market coming all the way down on the daily time scale, flipping underneath Tuesday's low, achieving an hourly downtrend, and satisfying the conditions for a daily higher low near the gap fill reversal level, which we talked about on Saturday. That's 725.

[00:01:24]It's the lower bound of the weekly expected move and depending on what the next couple of sessions looks like, it could be potentially confluence with the 20 SMA here on the daily time scale.

[00:01:33]That's if the market pulls back. I want to be very clear here that the base case is either looking for continuation sideways through time because of the rotation, which we'll talk about when we get into the sectors. And if the market decides to pull back more intensely via price, again, you're going to have to lose Tuesday's low. And then we're looking at the gap fill reversal here.

[00:01:49]And I do believe because the market's been in lockout mode in the upward direction, everybody and their brother, sister's mother is going to be waiting to buy this 20 SMA test, the first test of the 20 with both hands basically. And even that is going to be pretty frothy still from our daily 50 SMA. I know I've had to zoom in kind of in a funky way to this daily chart to make it somewhat even readable over the last little bit.

[00:02:08]But look at where the 50 SMA is. It's not even confluence yet with the previous all-time high test. I would maintain the idea that of course if the market does this, yeah, weekly higher low, monthly higher low, you know, all all day long. Uh but for the end of this week, probably not, right? We'll talk about that in the Saturday update video if it becomes relevant and if there's a nasty route to the downside. But honestly, let's just go to the hourly chart here because the price action has been so nuanced. Uh just in the sense that if you're a seller, you're getting steamrololled six ways till Sunday. I mean, you go out long on the Monday session thinking, okay, brigade bull bull flag up and over previous day high.

[00:02:42]You get the move lower on Tuesday. Okay, look at this. We're taking out Monday's low. Oh my goodness, a change in tone.

[00:02:46]The one time framing's broken. And then where do we support? This is the exact level we talked about on Saturday at 73225. Right? As long as you didn't violate this low, you're going to maintain an hourly uptrend, which we did. So, this is an hourly higher low.

[00:02:58]It's not a daily higher low. Hourly higher low. Trend remains up. And on today's session, there's no struggling.

[00:03:04]It's straight back to all-time highs, right? A little bit of a dipsy-doo in the morning there. And then just markets did not look back whatsoever. moving straight through that high from Monday with no intraday struggle. So once again, if you're a stronger seller, this is like this is your time to shine.

[00:03:18]Great. Lower high underneath Friday's low, brigade bolt back down here, go for the gap close, and then maybe there's a daily higher. It just didn't even happen. So when the sellers try to get a foothold here, it it's just not working out. So what does that tell us about the types of participants in this market?

[00:03:33]Everybody still wants to get on the long train. people who missed the move are still willing to buy extremely shallow dips and they're not really waiting for larger structure to be repaired, meaning this gap closed from last week, right?

[00:03:43]So, from for all intents and purposes, like this is a market where pullbacks are bought. You want to go with breaks into blue sky territories intraday, right? Make sure you know where your stops are. Make sure you know where you're going to be invalidated, but for the most part, you want to go with this market still in the upward direction.

[00:03:58]Now, as mentioned in the intro, there's a little bit of a subtle divergence starting to brew in the background. This is the market internals. If you're not familiar with this dashboard, check out the video tutorial in the top right-and corner. You could see here that the volume flows into the beginning stages of this week. They're technically out of the market here, right? You are seeing that your NY breath is sustained somewhat of a negative read intraday today. Uh you could see here that your advanced decline line is technically negative. You could see that your cumulative builds out of the tick are technically negative. Right? So, I'm not sitting here and saying that like everything's firing on all cylinders. It is a fairly narrow rally at least as it relates to uh you know what groups are pushing things higher you know cough cough semiconductors are you know the backbone of this rally right now not much else uh but it's not a tape that I would fight right and we are starting to see the early signs of rotation this week you could see over here as we sort by uh weekly gain we have energy at the top 7's going to carry the weight thanks to Tesla really waking up Google in a big way today but then you have healthcare then you have staples then you have tech right so I mean you're getting a little bit of that defensive rotation. You even saw it intraday if I just filtered by this. We'll get deeper into the sectors in just a moment. But I mean, as you see here, you get healthcare, you get staples, discretionary up there. Uh but notice that the SMH was not the leader of today's session. And for a majority of the session, actually in the beginning of the day, uh we're bouncing around a little bit today. In the morning session, it was the lagard, right? If I actually zoom in here, yes, it opened higher, but from the opening print, it was actually down when some other names were up, right, in in terms of sector performance. as it relates to the S&P 500. The other one that of course we should just touch on before moving forward is the XLF. Just I feel like it's relevant to talk about all this right now for the S&P. Uh the XLF did not have a stellar day there. So it's actually, you know, it it's u almost required that the SMH picked up the baton from what seemed to be an early morning rally that then failed into the afternoon for the XLF. Right? You saw names like JPM, if we're just bouncing around a little bit today, have a pretty solid day on Tuesday just to kind of give it back into the 50 on today's session. So once again, going back over to the S&P 500 on the hourly chart, building ourselves a little bit of a game plan into the remainder of this week. The rotation is taking place. That may mean the market struggles to move meaningfully higher, but it's not a market that I would really try to short aggressively, right? I still do believe that pullbacks should be bought. The best case scenario would be that we go brigade bolt here, aka bull flag, basically over the Monday high. That's staying over 74075, continues up to the weekly upper edge, the expected move. If we take that out, maybe maybe you start to go head and shoulders, but let me just like catch myself before I go too far. Now that I mean, we did use it intraday this morning as a higher low.

[00:06:34]But if the market goes backside a little bit here and can still catch for an hourly higher low over 735, it's going to be not identical, but fairly similar to the situation we had here where it's just a nuanced higher low. Right? If you hold over what was once acting as resistance, acted supportive, acted supportive. It even acted supportive this morning. If you get a stronger hourly pullback towards that level, I mean, you can kind of see what's been going on in the market here. If I just zoom out a little bit, right? Break, mild pullback, gets bought back up.

[00:07:01]Break, mild pullback, gets bought back up. Break, mild pullback, or excuse me, I said that backwards. Break, mild pullback, gets bought back up. Right? So even if you get a little bit of a break to the downside in here as long as you stack an hourly higher low over 735, the trend will remain in the upward direction. We could quickly hit this with a couple of Fibonacci. There's really two perspectives from the gap level and then the most recent pullback low. You can see here that the 61.8 slowly will start to creep up as confluence with that 735. That's always the line in the sand. Then you could also see that your fib 38.2 in here. If you just hold this, even that's going to be a higher low at roughly that 738, which is again your Friday high, Monday pullback low, and this morning's opening print from today's Wednesday session, right? So, just so many chances for a higher low at each of those levels. I would be watching to see if buyers step up, right? The next fib we could pull is from here, this low up to this high. Uh, and at this point, the fibs don't really align with anything. Uh, I would just maybe keep a close eye on the 50% fib.

[00:07:57]And you know, naturally, if this is what we get over 74075, then fine, it's just over the 38.2, it's about as bullish as it gets, right? The biggest thing that I would encourage you to pay attention to is the rotation, right? As I've still got a majority of people, I know some of you guys trickle off after we finish the S&P analysis. The biggest thing you must be watching for if the market's going to get a deeper pullback to the downside, if that big nasty red day is going to come around, bearish and go for, oh my goodness, we find ourselves at the 20 SMA in like a day and a half, it's going to be the day where this column is completely red. If there's any speck of green here, then the market's rotating.

[00:08:31]You will not crash. As we mentioned in the intro, you will probably struggle to go higher if SMH is red. But if everything else is green, comms is green, healthcare, staples. If these things are green, financials especially, if that's green, then you're probably going sideways, churning up here, waiting for the SMH to catch a break and then move higher, right? It's only going to be a nasty down day in the markets when you have everything red, semiconductors getting hit, financials getting hit, discretionary getting hit, staples not getting rotation, right?

[00:08:58]You're seeing healthcare getting hit.

[00:09:00]Everything's red. Yes, that is the day where you say, "Okay, I can see this in the first 5, 10, 15 minutes of trading, the first hour of trading. Everything's red." Armageddon situation, right?

[00:09:09]That's when you turn on the switch and say, "Okay, I've prepared for this moment. I understand that the rotation's not taking place. Now, it's time to get a little bit more aggressive on the short side." Right? So, it's the biggest watch here on the S&P 500 as it relates to understanding the context of the market environment that we're trading in right now. Let's go ahead and hit this with the intraday anchored VWAP. You can see that we're above the entirety of the stack. And once again, each of these kind of confluence in its own right at any of the pullback structure levels we just discussed. So 74075, 73815, 735 line in the sand would be an hourly trend reversal underneath 73225. Right?

[00:09:40]If the market does look like this, you achieve your hourly lower low. Correct?

[00:09:44]Anything is probably a lower high. You come in to close the gap at 725. That was an overshoot on my drawing.

[00:09:48]Apologies. And then this is where we're going to start looking for a daily firm higher low. All right. That is the situation. That's the configuration that I'd be paying attention to. Okay, let's move on over. We already discussed our market internals. How these are subtly, you know, subtle, subtle, subtle, subtle, subtle, subtle bearish divergence. It's not like, oh my god, short this thing into the ground. It's just like, hey, put it in your back pocket. If no rotation, then you understand that, you know, it's doable on the downside. Let's go on over to market profile and see what we can glean from this. Should be yeah, all set here.

[00:10:17]Uh on market profile, you can see that we are going to have one of these situations where it's a little bit easier to topple the value area, right?

[00:10:22]This is a term that I've sort of been using over the last little bit. I've been using it for the last couple of years, but probably a little bit more vocal on the YouTube thing with it uh recently. When I when I refer to toppling it over in the market profile, we'll see if we can get that trademark registered and copywritten. It just means that value is elevated in the session. And if the next day you tag value area low and break through it, it's going to be easier, right? Think about it like a unbalanced Jenga tower.

[00:10:44]It's going to be easier to topple that tower over, right? So, as you can see here, value was indeed shifted towards today's high. But look at the value area low. It's actually quite low, right? All right. The one thing I would say is that you get a double distribution on today's session where F-P period brings out these single prints. And the biggest thing to watch for, the easiest thing to watch for tomorrow is just going to be do we accept in what we call distribution. Oops. Distribution. There we go. Distribution number one or distribution number two. Right? If we're in distribution number one, like no worries, my friends. Let's go take a look at the all-time highs. Right? If we come on out of distribution number two instead of lower high underneath it, okay, maybe we start to pull back a little bit more meaningfully. or at least again not a deeper pullback if the market's rotating sector-wise but maybe we start to go a little bit more so sideways right and the easiest confluence here is just remembering or not even remembering but taking a look left it's the same level as the Monday high so if you're like oh I don't have this market profile just watch Monday's high if we're over Monday's high we're mostly in distribution number one I would say that things are doing a okay no problemmo if you're under Monday's high getting a brigade bolt like this to the downside okay sideways a little bit more of a uh timid day or a lackluster day in the market wouldn't be unreasonable some sideways digestion That's what we've got over here. Let's jump on over to the nasty NASDAQ and see what they've got for us in the QQQ.

[00:11:52]Taking a look at the daily chart. Again, these things just it looks bananas, right? I can't I can't even zoom in on the daily chart like this anymore without it looking just absolutely silly. So, let's break the rules. Let's uh commit some chart crimes and get this thing halfway on the screen so we could at least see it. Solid greenbodied hammer here. Not too bad. Uh shallow pull back into the previous day's range, closing at the all-time high. Now, because you didn't have that XLV, that uh XLP to rotate into today, you can see that the NASDAQ did not break for as strong of a higher high, new all-time high. It's a new all-time high close, intraday new all-time high, but it's not notable like what we had over in the S&P 500 where we just cleanly broke out over the previous day's range high, right?

[00:12:28]You could see here a little bit more notable, right? Going back on over to the NASDAQ, and again, apologies for how crazy the zooming has to be to get these charts uh manageable to look at. Uh this is just not as not as good. Now, is that a problem? I don't think so. I think to me this is like clearly a higher like shallow but higher low pullback that was uh bought up at least from an hourly perspective. I would really be hardressed to call that a daily higher low. It's an hourly higher low and uh a couple of outcomes here would be reasonable. Either continued sideways now we have a bull flag at the all-time highs in a raging bull market. What do we think happens next? Probably this. If we fail it, it becomes fairly straightforward underneath Tuesday's low. Great. We still have that same gap structure to close just like the S&P 500. So that's going to be between about 680 650 to 683. Again, is there anything on this chart currently that says that that's the primary outcome? No. And as I look at this, I mean, after hours, we're 718. Are you kidding me? So, I mean, we're already pushing higher up and out of, you know, today's range, yesterday, tomorrow uh range. Just like continuing this trend in the upward direction. So, once again, I don't see any signs of aggressive sellers. We pretty much retraced some of the thin structure in here. We'll go down to the hourly and take a look at this. Uh we retraced the thin structure on Tuesday, find buyers at the magic 700 level, which of course a big psychological number. Uh if you want to be really refined and a gentleman about it then or a gentle woman, uh you could use 699, that's the technical hourly level that I would update to over there. Uh but for the most part, like again in the after hours, it seems like we're suggesting a gap up for tomorrow. Either gap fill reversal is an idea and higher deeper pullback to wash it out and then you're in here and you're higher. And then like maybe if there's a lower high under 709, we start to go sideways and manage our expectations a little bit, right? And that would be the situation to prepare for. So as long as we're over like if you want to make it dead simple for the rest of this week, over 709, great, good, right? Under 709, bad and problems, right? Maybe a little bit.

[00:14:18]Ooh, dare we draw a little bit of a pattern, right? Does this start to turn into a double top? Well, we'll only know when and if we take out that 700, that 699, we actually go out to an hourly lower low. if we get the hourly lower low. Again, this satisfies the conditions for an hourly trend change and thus now we have the opportunity for a daily firm higher low if we support around this gap close area. So, I think fairly straightforward. 709's the big watch here. The structure is a little bit thinner than what we have over in the S&P 500 based on the way that we move to the high today. Let's go ahead and let's throw on the intraday anchored view apps just to give you a little idea of the fact that we're above all of them and the anchored view app from this low in here. We could actually bump this forward to about 12:30. Instead of 10:30, I'll just go 12:30 there for a moment. Uh, and the chart completely breaks. Got to love that. Uh, but you can see as we anchor to the dead low right at 709. That's the main illustration that I'm trying to come up with here. Just to reinforce that once again, great confluence, good above 709, not necessarily horrible under 709, but just manage expectations under 709 is the key here on the NASDAQ. Let's jump on over into our NASDAQ internals side of the market here. What do we see? A little bit better, right? Obviously, you've got volume inflows today.

[00:15:23]advanced decline line still negative but trending higher intraday much flatter cumulative build it is red and again definitely got to give bears credit where credit is due but just not enough going on here to make me think oh my goodness here we go let's start to just load shorts as soon as the bell rings tomorrow because we're massively divergent and everything's going to go to zero that's just like not the correct mindset to have in this market and you know if you've been really really reluctant to try longs if you've been like trying to short the market and say like oh nope all-time highs semiconductors have to turn around this is horrible oh my god do you see inflation you're just you're you're missing out on one of the strongest bull markets that I have seen in a you know basically forever. It's like undeniably the strongest bull market I've seen in my trading career. So even stronger than the you know sickness rebound, stronger than last April's tariff low rebound, stronger than all of those, right? I was not trading around in the uh the dot era, but uh I imagine right this is kind of what that feels like. So that's what we've got over here. Let's take a look at the NQ market profile. Let's just go ahead and take a closer look. you do have a small little F- period delineation for your double uh distribution today. Your point of control closes higher, your value area closes higher. So once again, it's fairly straightforward that if we do break down into the singles or into the lower distribution, D2, which is down here, I'll give you the number here.

[00:16:36]It's going to be at 29410, let's call it, for round number sake. If you break below that, then sure, maybe some problems start to emerge. And once again, you get a little bit of a downtick. Is that going to be confluence with the hourly level? Let's just quickly go look and I'll get you the uh QQQ level as well. Well, if we go to a 30inut chart, I can get you the equivalent of that little string of single prints. Um, and the survey says not quite. Your tiny string of single prints is actually closer to here at 71225. 712 71225 to 75 would be the little string of single prints that you could pay attention to. I honestly I would I would try not to be so, you know, in the weeds about it and just say 709. Either good above, looking at it as a higher low or bad below, right?

[00:17:18]looking for a potential pullback towards the neckline of what could start to be considered a little bit of a double top.

[00:17:23]With that, let's jump on over to the final broad market index. That's going to be the IWM, our small caps over here.

[00:17:28]And even for something that you would think is like not you would think, but just is super rate sensitive. Not a bad day at all after uh both the CPI, which was not nearly as bad of a miss, but the PPI this morning just absolutely horrible. Three times uh the expectation on the miss side, just not great. And yet, what do we have here? It's an inside hammer over a rising 20 SMA over the top end of a previous balance range.

[00:17:52]I mean, again, like just, you know, if if you're slamming your head against the wall thinking, "Oh my god, it's got to be this big short and it's going to go to zero because inflation's out of control." I think the market and you know, you could feel free to disagree in the comment section. And of course, the irony will be like, if the market pulls back a smidge, you know, it's like, oh, you know, you silly guy, like, what are you talking about? Inflation doesn't matter. it matters to some degree, but I think that the market's smart enough to understand that, you know, in a long enough time horizon, AI is massively deflationary, right? So, that I think is uh totally baked into the market at this point. IWM can sort of uh attest to that, if you will, based on the lack of downside ultimately after a super hot PPI. So, what's the name of the game? As long as you're over 280 uh 20 SMA, these lows in here, no change to the analysis.

[00:18:39]I would look for potentially brigade bolt up and out of the inside day range targeting all-time highs. If not, follow through into uh if not follow through not um if not follow through towards all-time highs. And you know the only time something changes if we get a firm daily close under the 20 SMA, maybe a rotation back down to the lows of this range. But like let's deal with that when and if it happens. These lower wicks here would not indicate at all that sellers grabbed a strong foothold in the market. Right? So if anything, really precise on the hourly chart, actually using these prior highs after setting a low near the 20, this low is naturally a higher low, right? There's no arguing with that over the 280. So I don't really see any problems. Again, this is not like the most compelling chart to want to do new things with it in here. If you were a buyer on the lows, buyer, you know, VWAP reclaim intraday today or something like that off the 280 hold, then fantastic. But in the middle here, like towards this area, I don't think there's any new action items to take. It's just understand that small caps are not acting as a headwind for the broad market overall. Let's go ahead and throw on the intraday anchored VW apps cuz why not? And then we'll just keep moving here through smalls. Uh if we clear this, right, I don't want to say clear sailing like you know free and clear, but I would think it gets easier certainly to move in the upward direction. The largest reclaim would just be up and over this 28465. If we could brigade bolt that in the upward direction, fantastic. Once again, that's the same thing we just talked about on the daily breaking out over the inside day highs. problems emerge when and if you're in here under the moving average stack uh excuse me the 20 SMA the VWAP stack uh that's where things excuse me that's where things get a little bit more uh worrisome but for now once again just where where are the sellers you mean to tell me after a pretty large downside day taking out the multiple inside days remember Friday inside day on the small caps when the market was strong and then Monday inside day when the broad market went out to a new all-time high Q's and S&P and you know we broke down aggressively on Tuesday and yet here we are again back in the range. I mean you tell me do we have stronger sellers participating? I don't think so. Doesn't certainly look like it to me. If if there were it would be like lower high week consolidation here. You know PPI comes out this morning brigade bolt losing the 20 testing the bottom end of the range and like oh my god sell everything. It's the worst thing in the world. Rates are going to skyrocket. You know 10 year rates are in fact up. I mean I'm not going to deny that. Right.

[00:20:50]Let's go to the TNX uh here on the Tinker Swim platform and let's just go to a daily chart. Like you know there's no denying that rates are higher but market once again doesn't really seem to care as of right now. Now one thing to keep in mind is like there will be a tipping point. Um I'm not convinced that I'm going to be the best person to predict when that is. Uh you know that's more like an institutional thing when the 10-year yield becomes a little bit more attractive than like the forward return on the S&P 500. Right. Obviously, your 10-year yield is a massive outperformer. Let's see if we can go to trade tab here and let's just quickly go to SPY and open up the yield. I mean, you know, is not even a question there, but the the you know, the performance, the expected performance a year out from now uh at this location on the S&P may be overrun. Again, your institutions will have to vote with their dollars as to when that actually is going to take place. Uh, but we could be getting closer. I don't know that we're all the way there yet. Um, in the spirit of maybe going back on over to the TNX, uh, I do just want to talk about these are some of the highest levels we've seen in a while. So once again, I'm not trying to minimize that like, oh, you know, rates just like whatever, market's going to go up forever and it's fine. Like there will be a day of reckoning at some point, but I think that if you just trade price action, if you just watch the S&P 500, there's no reason to try to get smarter than the market and say, "Okay, nope. 10ear rates over four and a half%. I'm short." I I mean, you're just not paying attention to what's going on here with the trend if that's the approach you take uh as it relates to yields. Like, you know, that's just to me, why why would you why would you not at least wait for an hourly trend reversal and a lower high underneath 73225 if you're trying to call a top? At least wait for the hourly trend to flip to down, right? So, those are my two cents. That's kind of what I got for you in the broad market. Let's quickly finish up the Russell, though, by being congruent with, of course, our Russell internals. You can see here not so bad on the volume flows actually up not great on the advanced decline line higher but under the zero mark and then your cumulative builds have just been bearish for a while now on the Russell exchange and not exchange but at the index level. Let's jump on over to uh let's actually go over here to our RTY futures. You do not have a double distribution which makes sense. We had an inside day here uh rather than a break with potential momentum. So you know again the toppling theory is definitely alive and well. You didn't really topple this value area. you never took out the low and value area is slightly higher in today's profile. So, I would just think that if you take out the top end, great. You're not toppling anything and you're just breaking out.

[00:23:18]If you do start to topple it, that's a different story and I would expect a repair of the poor low from the Tuesday session. So, that is what we've got for small caps. Let's go ahead and take a look through our sectors. We did some of this work already. Uh, but let's just go ahead and refilter by weekly performance. As we saw earlier, the XLE energy sector is the leading pack up 2.44% 44% followed by mag 7 followed by healthcare. Then we have staples, tech, materials, semis, right bottom of the barrel, you've got your IGV, software, utilities, discretionary, financials, and real estate is red as well as rates continue to move in the upward direction. So posture overall would indicate to me a little bit of defensive rotation, right? We really don't want to see energy at the top of the list when the S&P is breaking out to a new high. I wouldn't say that this chart is like pulling all the weight, so to speak, but it is higher on the week thus far. We'll continue to watch and monitor the price of crude. As we know, this has been pretty volatile with the like the ceasefire's on, it's off, we're going to strike, we're not going to strike, and like this, that, the other. The markets, in my opinion, kind of have brushed this off at this point as being like, okay, you know, sure, it's still conflict, still turmoil. We know there's going to be headlines, but I mean, just look at the amount of noise. If this was your original range when the headlines were really flying, I mean, we've compressed that by quite a margin. What is this, like a third of the overall range that started way back here? And the correlation isn't even in play anymore either. Uh crude can be higher like it was on today's session. If I just go to like a five-minute chart for a second, you know, crude is rallying higher here.

[00:24:44]The market was slightly lower. Uh but generally still in a solidified uptrend.

[00:24:48]And when I say higher, I mean like taking out a previous day's high and yet the S&P is not taking out a previous day's low. Right? That's kind of this situation right there. So I I wouldn't really lean into that too too much anymore uh in terms of the way this market's been moving. Let's go on over to the MAG 7 ETF. This is great. This actually does support more of the thesis that yes, markets are kind of healthy in terms of the heavyweight pulling its weight into new all-time highs. That's great. XLV, defensive sector, just bouncing off the range low. I don't think this chart is necessarily screaming like, "Hey, watch out.

[00:25:17]Defensive rotation. You're running on fumes." It's just like naturally getting support at the bottom end of the flag.

[00:25:23]So, I don't really see this as being problematic yet. Uh if we go on over to the XBI, uh I would think that this chart honestly looks pretty good in terms of possibility for continuation here, which is just bullish overall.

[00:25:33]It's a riskon sector in my view. If we look at staples defensive sector, it's higher, but is this like pushing the market to new all-time highs? Not really. It's just kind of like keeping money from going strictly to the sidelines, right? If we jump on over the XLK, this thing is just looking like a hight flag in the making. I mean, I don't know about you, but there's nothing really bearish about this price action. and it's just consolidating at highs and potentially getting ready for a flag break. You know, if we pull back in here, fine. You look at how much room there is for a higher low over the 20 SMA. Now, when I say that, I also kind of have to uh acknowledge both sides of the coin. You know, you could be at the 20 SMA in like a day and a half or maybe even just a day. That's going to be a 6% down day in the XLK, right? So, if there is no rotation, that day is going to come and it's going to clobber you right over the head if you're not watching carefully. So, when I talk about rotation on that S&P 500, I really mean it. That that is going to be your best friend for understanding when you can press the bet on the short side versus when you can't press the bet on the short side. Because once again, uh we I think we could all agree, let me just like sketch this in for just a moment.

[00:26:34]If we came in and closed the gap, if the bar on the screen looked like that after the close, I don't think anybody would argue that that is unreasonable, right?

[00:26:41]That is a candle that could print to this chart. And once again, that is approximately, this is assuming we open on, you know, near today's low. That's a 4.89% down day, right? That is a gnarly day for the S&P 500, but it's within the bounds of keeping us in an overall uptrend, right? That's the, you know, maybe not scary part, but that's the part you've got to acknowledge. You still have room for a higher low, right?

[00:27:03]So, please keep your wits about you, uh, you know, as we're trading near these highs, but uh, that's kind of my take at least as it relates to the rotation.

[00:27:10]Let's going over to materials, not staples, materials. Um, not really much to say here. I I don't think it's it's not looking great. I mean, a little bit of a failed breakout, but uh, you know, as long as we're over the 20, as long as we're stacking higher lows, wouldn't argue too much with that. It's a lightweight sector. It's the lightest weight sector. SMH looks fine. Just like a mirror image basically of the, uh, XLK. Not much of a different commentary happening here. Let's jump on into our XLI. Little bit of a failed breakout, but still again, just like the XLB, stacking higher lows in there. I'd be open-minded to it possibly taking out the two-day high and getting a rotation that looks like that. Once again, if this is shaping up, um, not like the XLB, this is actually 8% of your S&P 500. So, you're probably not going to zero in the market. It's probably a down day. Uh, if the semiconductors sell off, but you're probably not going to zero.

[00:27:52]You're probably not crashing if money is rotating into industrials. Same thing with the communication sector. And, you know, I'm going to continue to stand by this sort of thesis that, you know, this is going to be a gnarly range breakout when and if it happens. doesn't have to happen like tomorrow or the next day or whatever. But if we continue to just stack a higher low in here, claim the moving average stack, you know, and and continue along like this, that's a multi-month consolidation, right? That has the potential to break out here. You know, I think we need a little bit of uh firming up in Meta, obviously, a little bit of firming up in Netflix, but comms could definitely get the job done out to new highs. If we look at the IGV looks awesome for a daily hammer right off the 20 gap fill reversal level still in play from Friday of last week. I mean this looks fantastic right? So even even if semi sell and they buy software you know this is also going to be fine as it relates to rotation. Now software is a little bit lighter weight in terms of its representation in the S&P or even the NASDAQ depending on how you want to split it versus semiconductors but once again the rotation is going to prevent an outright okay straight to zero markets are crashing situation. Let's jump on over to utilities. Utilities are not really doing anything special. 200 SMA holding here. This is like fine. If it bounces, it's a defensive sector.

[00:29:03]It's not pushing markets to new highs. I don't really worry about that too too much. If we look at discretionary, Tesla's been having a decent little rally. Amazon's uh started to perk itself back up a little bit today. So, this doesn't really strike me as being anything other than a bull flag. I would try to stay away from the aggressive double top calls until you fail the 200, right? And that that'll just be notable underneath 11675. So, if you're just in here, right, you're probably trying to look for follow-through rather than a reversal. It's going over to financials.

[00:29:28]This one's struggling a little bit, as we mentioned before. You do continue to stack lower highs in here, unfortunate, and uh you do continue to actually take out this low. So, not the best close on today's session. I would keep an open mind for drag to the S&P 500 if we start to take out 5065. This is probably the biggest red flag, or I'll just call it a white flag for now. Biggest white flag that I see for the market rotation thesis. If your XLF gets lost in here and your semiconductors pull back, noting that this is still the second heaviest weight sector by market cap, yeah, I mean, not really great, right? A lot of some of the big banks look okay.

[00:30:01]You could look at a Goldman Sachs looks good up there. You could look at a uh City Bank looks okay there. Look at a Morgan Stanley. Uh JP Morgan is the problem and your Visa is the problem and your Mastercard is the problem, right?

[00:30:13]These things really don't look great.

[00:30:15]Uh, I'm not sure about regional banks, but KRE. Yeah, KRE does not look great over here. Um, did we look at City Bank?

[00:30:21]If not, there it is again. Let's go WFC.

[00:30:22]This one has struggled as well as one of the larger banks. But outside of that, Bank of America, right? This thing struggled a little bit. I think the big boys, your Morgan Stanley, your Goldman Sachs, those guys kind of look decent for hire if I'm if I'm, you know, being honest. It's just that some of these other components are kind of acting as a drag. So don't get too caught up in uh the uh the disguise so to speak of those big banks uh when in reality right the natural look of the XLF it's not all that great right let's go over the XLR which is real estate a little bit lower today on higher rates but still holding up surprisingly well considering that uh you know I don't know can we just quickly hit a comparison study quick study comparison yes can we go with the 10-year rate is that an automated one no no no no okay fine uh let's quickly type this then TNX CGI let's try that okay so you would expect these things to move somewhat inverse right your 10-year rate uh obviously opposite to real estate as it be get you know becomes more expensive to finance this stuff so really impressed with how well this has held up specifically through this segment in here over the last handful of weeks all right that is what we've got through the sector watch list just get rid of that real quick and let's jump on into our over here let's get into our ratios there we go if you're not familiar with ratios Check out the video tutorial in the top right-hand corner. The glue that holds the market together is still the absolute superlue. Problematic in the XLF. I wouldn't say it's screaming risk off, but once again, it speaks to the narrowness of the uh sectors that are pulling the market higher. Problems in XLC, problems in XLY. This is not yet telling us risk off. So, I'll put a check mark there, meaning it's okay underneath the 50 SMA. Same thing here, and same thing over here. If we jump on into the AB set real quick, what do we see? Looks great. Looks great. Of course, this is using the XLK SMH. looks great relative to healthcare. Your apples to apples doesn't look half bad.

[00:32:10]I'd love to see this flag out and go for a new high. That would really reinforce to me that things are actually, you know, doing okay outside of semiconductors. Kathy Wood just can't seem to get the job done over here. And your small cap 1000 uh growth versus value still looking okay on the ratio over the 50s SMA. So, I'd say Kathy Wood might be a problem. And still, you know, although this doesn't point to like objectively risk off, it's still a little bit narrow. uh remembering that a lot of these ratios are, you know, highly concentrated in your semiconductors. Basically, let's go to the B set. B is honestly looking pretty darn good. The gold ratio continues to move higher here. Remember, we want everything pointing up. Look at this TLT ratio. That's just telling you that if you're owning bonds right now, you're getting smoked. If you take a look by the S&P 500, uh 60/40 portfolio, no thanks. Uh Bitcoin still struggling a little bit. We haven't triggered a bearish sailor shift. That's a tongue twister every time. Uh but we have not triggered that bearish flip yet. keep an open mind to it and really impressed with the move that copper has made over the last handful of days. This has gone from like okay heads up a little bit of Dr. copper bearish divergence is suddenly saying, "No, no, no, hang on.

[00:33:11]Everything's fine." Like, it's it's it's all set. Don't worry about it. Copper's good. Right? So, that's good for data center. Remember, I I don't know exactly what the stat is, but you could only imagine how many tons of copper are in a data center. So, that's your B set.

[00:33:23]Let's jump on over into the dollar and rates. We've talked about this a little bit. Rates, of course, are higher right now with the inflation prospects. Look at the dollar. Not really much of a headwind off these highs over here.

[00:33:33]Let's jump on into our uh inverted ZT, which is the Fed watch tool. basically higher for longer as this moves higher.

[00:33:40]I don't think anybody's going to be shocked if we go on over here to the Fed watch tool officially and just quickly fire this up. Let me give this a refresh to make sure it's the most accurate and up to date. Let's go to the aggregated probabilities. And there we have it.

[00:33:50]Again, is anybody shocked? I mean, we talked about it at the 8:30 time frame when the numbers were released. Still looking at odds of a hike out to about March. Yeah, March. Yeah, March of 2027.

[00:34:02]And that falls on the shoulders of Kevin Worsh who was appointed today in I think the least confident vote as of uh history. Right. So uh he did ultimately pass and get nominated. Where is Do they have the stats for the vote? Uh where is it? He did pass, but do they actually have the breakdown? No breakdown over here. Um 51 votes needed. I think he got 55 or something like that. So let me just click on this real quick. Uh, okay.

[00:34:33]There we go. They voted 5445.

[00:34:36]Wow. Incredible. Uh, the vote was almost completely what is the closest vote in modern era.

[00:34:43]Incredible. Yeah, you could read more about it if you'd like. But anyways, we're going to have Kevin Worsh. Uh, let's jump back on over to this economic calendar where we can actually see the breakdown of PPI numbers. PPI right here, month over month. That's what I was saying earlier when it came in nearly three times hotter than the expectation. Looking for a 0.5 and we got a 1.4. That's not year-over-year.

[00:35:05]That's month over month. That is monstrous, right? That is just absolutely gigantic. You can see here on the core month overmonth coming in at a 1% consensus view was.3. That's more than a 3x on that one. You can see here also missing by over a percent uh uh sorry well depending on which forecast you use about a percent miss on the year-over-year and the year-over-year down here 6% versus 4.9 on the consensus view for the noncore. Generally producers are feeling it. Obviously they're the ones that shoulder that uh input cost a little bit more so and just generally you know it means rates will be higher and at some point this will matter. Uh but for now, as long as the semiconductor party is going, you know, you might want to like like what's the base case? You if you're long a bunch of stuff already, just bring your trail stops higher. If you're scared about a market correction and oh my god, I can't believe inflation's, you know, way hotter than expected. Just use a trail stop, right? And and protect your profit that way. Um you know, of course, you know, do it however works best for your portfolio. That's of course not personalized financial advice. I'm just saying there's tools in the market to sidestep when and if a large crash comes and if you're just on the sidelines petrified of inflation right now because this you know massive miss you're missing the rally I don't know I don't know what to say you know it's just like trade the price action in front of you not what you think should happen but what's actually happening right let's jump on over to the earnings calendar you can see here NBIS was the big deal before the open uh huge gap up over there gap fill reversal closed kind of as a dogee I've not looked at US after hours or Cisco, but those are the big names after the close today. And tomorrow morning, Andis kind of catches my attention. It is trying to hold up over the 50 uh over the 200 SMA, excuse me, on the daily chart, although it's h kind of just in a lagging theme. It hasn't really been hot like your your AVA, your KTOS, ODS, the drone theme kind of, you know, tapered off a little bit. Figma, New Bank, me, AAT is the big watch after the close on Thursday. That will have my full attention. That's really it for the remainder of the week.

[00:37:04]Let's jump on back to the platform.

[00:37:06]Let's finish up on a strong note and see what else is going on. Let's check in on the bond relationships here. I'm not shocked to see that this is higher now that the CPI numbers are out. Remember, we got a blip higher on the services PMI print. Prices paid came in hot, right?

[00:37:20]Or unchanged, but still at like 70.3, really hot. And uh inflation over the last two days, CPI and PPI both moving this in the upward direction as well.

[00:37:28]Nothing we don't already know. Uh with the 10-year rate also pushing in the upward direction. Let's jump on into credit spreads moving lower over here.

[00:37:35]The top one is the one that uh sort of matters most there. Uh sorry, the bottom one is the one that matters most.

[00:37:42]Getting that backwards for just a second. Uh nonetheless, small drift higher under the 50. This should ultimately, you know, yield pressure over here. Anyways, let's jump on into our HYG in isolation. This remains divergent. It's something that we've been talking about for a while. It is a bearish data point. I think if you are a bear, you want to pay attention to this and continue to just have it in your back pocket. But, you know, again, what has been paying? It's been paying to buy pullbacks over here. If you use a stop-loss, I mean, what's the most you stand to lose? If you if you riskreward up to the highs on pullbacks, I mean, that's not really, you know, it just just because, you know, you're trying to long the market and get involved at the highs. You can use defensive tactics to not get completely steamrolled. You don't have to buy this here and then like hold on to it for a full draw down towards here. Like there's there's ways to get involved, right? We've been trading long and short a lot in the group recently, but uh like today for example, Marvel on the breakout just absolutely phenomenal, right? Let's go on over to uh breath. Breath as reflected in the moving averages. Little bit of deterioration here. I think this aligns with what we've seen already on the market internals. Same thing here in the new highs versus lows. Not really all that problematic. Let's go next pain. There we go. RSP. I think setting higher lows still looks good. And if we can get breath expansion, then the party rocks on, right? is the rotation thesis.

[00:38:58]If you wanted to, you could just set an alert on the RSP underneath the lows just like this at or below. Boom. If that goes off, you know that you should probably duck and cover, right? You're not seeing that rotation step up and pull things higher if the SMH is red, right? So, there you go. I'll let that sit for tomorrow. QQQE, same thing. You take out this low, you're not getting rotation through the NASDAQ, which is already narrow by its own right. Uh, but you take that out and semiconductors look weak. and you get in the RSP dinging as well and you're looking over at your market minder window and this column right here is all red. Great. You could be a little bit more aggressive on the shorts, but for now, I mean, this is just a higher low clearly in the trend count with not much to uh to offer, you know, otherwise. So, going over to our volatility reads, let's check in on the VIX just melting over here. Really not a problem on that. Let's go over to the VIX V of Vall. A little bit elevated, but nothing that makes me uh run for the hills yet. Still under 103, which is the preliminary trigger level over 120 is duck and cover. Let's jump on over to the V futures which are clearly in a strong contango over here. Strong contango here. One day VIX is floored.

[00:39:58]Really not much of a problem with that.

[00:40:01]Let's get on into maybe a little bit of skew here as well. Nobody is pricing in a black swan right now, which is maybe.

[00:40:06]You might say, you know, your counter could be that that hey, if nobody's pricing it in, then that's the perfect time for something to happen. Maybe. Uh usually using this as a little bit more of a bottom finder uh rather though when it starts to breach this 113. haven't been there for a year, two almost three years at this point. Uh so with that, I think we continue along into our core list of companies. We get the job done and we send you on your way for a Wednesday afternoon. Nvidia, what do we have? Yep. Nvidia. There we go. Earnings not this week. So you're still good. You got next next week. Yeah, next week on the 20th. There we go. What is that?

[00:40:39]Midweek Wednesday usually for Nvidia.

[00:40:41]We'll see what they've got for us then.

[00:40:43]But for now, continuing out to new highs, gap fill reversal over previous day's high. I think you're pushing your luck if you're trying to be a new money long up here. You're 1, two, 3, four, five, six days higher now on Nvidia.

[00:40:54]Just kind of running out of steam. Uh, you know, easily could use a pullback.

[00:40:58]Over 216 would look fantastic. Something that looks like that as a trade pre-earnings. If you go under 216, you're probably talking about a 20 SMA test. 208 would be the big figure to watch out for. It's going over to Apple.

[00:41:08]Great breakout today. Congrats to all the folks who like this one. Uh a little bit of a slower mover, but nonetheless a really strong and stable breakout through the session over the multi-day high at 29475.

[00:41:17]Uh you could see here very straightforward multi-day range broke it, pulled back and went into the afternoon. Looks great as long as higher lows maintain themselves over 29475.

[00:41:26]Hourly higher low continuation blue sky breakout, right? Looks really strong for Apple. Concerns would emerge not just if we came back in here, but if we did this, if we're underneath the previous all-time high 28865, yeah, a little bit of a red flag. Let's go on over to Microsoft and see what we can see for Softy. This chart's horrible. Sorry.

[00:41:41]There we go. On the daily chart start uh just horrible. It can't get in gear like the rest of the market. It's still being punished as if it's software. It's still being punished because of perhaps it's OpenAI. Let's say OpenAI OI exposure over here. I think there was a disclosure today that they've invested over hundred billion dollars um throughout their relationship with OpenAI. Nonetheless, like just look at this chart compared to what we just looked at in Apple and Nvidia, right?

[00:42:05]It's just not at all the place to be right now in Microsoft, which is somewhat unfortunate, but it is, you know, I would think if the if the software trade is fully going to get a rotation, you've got to kind of respect what this is for Azure, right? Yes, they're commercial products in terms of software stack, uh, you know, Office 365 productivity tools, you know, maybe not the greatest. You're going to have AI, you know, make that stuff evaporate, maybe, but the Azure cloud is is what the business is all about here. So anyways, for Microsoft, I don't love the chart. I don't really see anything to do with it. Just want to point out that, you know, it's kind of not where the focus should be. So let's keep, you know, moving forward. So we looked at Amazon. Really strong hold of the daily 20 SMA. Great break over the hammer high. Just looks like a simple daily higher low to me. Looking for continuation in the upward direction.

[00:42:50]This is a great chart uh on the hourly as well. Consolidation holds over 268.885. Rotate back to here and ultimately seek the uh all-time high. If you're deeper than that, fine. you really want to maintain at this point a higher low over 26550. Any lower than that, I would start thinking that it's still unfortunately uh not able to figure out its daily higher low, right?

[00:43:10]And in here, you probably just get a little bit sloppier, need more information. So, those are the two key numbers. And of course, alltime high is the ultimate target than blue skies.

[00:43:17]Google really strong today. Shout out Bony. And of course, you can see here daily hammer great hold over the previous breakout level. Straight back to all-time highs. Great. Awesome stuff.

[00:43:26]60% cloud growth year-over-year. Just a monster of a company here and uh likely looking for a continuation for day two followthrough in the upward direction over 400 to blue skies tomorrow. The after hours 40316 just a smidge over the all-time high. So that looks good on Google probably playing for long side there on the hourly chart. That looks like a couple of things. It looks like either we gap up pull back high or low and go. It looks like an open in range here. Brigade bolt up and over the top.

[00:43:53]It looks like a deeper pullback here that firms up, offers some tightening in here, and then goes into the afternoon or even on Friday. Let's jump on over to Broadcom. This chart has been really sloppy and loose. It's not doing anything wrong, but it's just really sloppy and loose, and it's not really uh, you know, offering clean enough setups. If you are ready for it at the bottom end of the balance range in here, maybe there was something to do. But honestly, the way I'm going to start to treat Broadcom is that this is your range. If you want to try to play look below and fails on the bottom side, fine. Uh, other than that, you probably want to wait for something up here to really clarify up and over this 43760.

[00:44:25]We've talked about it before, but I'll do it one more time. Just when you think, right, oh my goodness, here we go. We're breaking out. We're going to gap up over the previous left side peak, right? You want to look for gap fill reversal smoked, right? And then you get bare flag in here, follow through to the 20. All right, fine. I guess we'll have to look for a lower high underneath the bearish engulfer from this session, right? That doesn't happen. And instead, you're back higher. Okay, fine. Bull flag up here. Maybe we're back to all.

[00:44:49]Nope. screwed, right? Oop, sorry, let that one slip the tongue, but you get the idea. Really sloppy, really uh, you know, as as it relates to technicals, patterns, kind of the way that you might expect the inventory to uh, continue to trade. It It's been a little berserk in terms of the way this AVGO has traded.

[00:45:05]So, not my top priority. You could start to argue for a little bit of double bottom over this 420. Maybe you go out to the range highs. If you want to take that trade, be my guest. But, I think you just uh, you kind of have to let this thing be until it wants to clarify a little bit further. I do like the backto-back hammers. do think it's likely higher. I do like the space it's in. I do like what it does. You know, it's hard to really argue with that right now. Uh it's just your your entry tactics may not be rewarded at as precisely as another name. Metaverse really waking up today off the range low down here. Not bad. Uh I think that the watch is over the 50 if we're going to do something that looks like that.

[00:45:37]Double gap close here towards the 20 SMA. That's one idea. Uh and then for the more pessimistic folks out there, which is fine because I I do sort of separate meta from the hyperscaler bunch. Um, if you're sort of look above and fail on the 50, you're probably just a range rotation to the bottom side, right? So, you work from about 62125 back towards 60185 on a look above and fail. Totally doable. It's going over to Tesla. Really uh starting to change the way it's trading over the last couple of sessions. So, congrats to everybody who's been long Tesla. Uh, I've yet to find myself into this one. You know, making up for it in other spots. Again, Marvel was fantastic today. Intel has been fantastic this week on both sides.

[00:46:11]Um Tesla it's got a you know I don't really love the prospect of buying it here. Um I I do like that it's starting to go a little bit more sideways. Do we do something that turns into a flag and then higher for the gap close above?

[00:46:23]Maybe. Maybe. But it's proven itself.

[00:46:25]It's definitely starting to prove itself. Higher lows ideally just stay over the 200 SMA at this point and then we seek new setups. Little bit of a volume increase as we've moved higher.

[00:46:33]We'll see where it goes. JP Morgan, we've talked about this one already. A little bit of a nice rally on Tuesday.

[00:46:38]unfortunately getting stuffed at the bottom end of the balance range and probably looks heavy for the XLF overall. Not going to have big expectations here on JP Morgan, but uh I don't think it's going to be all that helpful for the market going forward.

[00:46:51]Palanteer, the only reason this stays on the watch list, it probably gets the boot soon. Uh just like Hood, but you know, if you want to start, not start, but if you want to continue to short Palanteer, then that's fine. Uh it's no longer a market leader. Don't try to force it into that bucket. Do not try to say, "Oh, look, it's on sale. You know, the market's at all-time highs and Palanteer is still so cheap. This is just the deal of the century. It could bounce a little bit. It could do whatever it wants to do. You might look like a genius for a couple of days, but just stick with your leaders. Stick with your leaders. The new names that are out to new all-time highs, things that have doubled over the last, you know, uh, year or so, out to new highs, strong theme, strong group. You know, I don't think Palanteer is a company that's going to go to zero. But, uh, it's clearly not trading well by any stretch of the imagination going out to a new low today when you get a new high in the NASDAQ and the S&P. So pass on this unless you're short and uh you just want to stay short underneath the multi-day lows around roughly that 133285 is the technical number. AMD looks great. Uh you know just continued higher lows on the barto bar account in here staying over the earnings day gap up high. I mean what more could you ask for on a stock that's trading 14 ATRs from its 50 SMA. To think that the shorts didn't pile in here and just sink the ship on Tuesday or follow up on Wednesday, you know, to me it makes me think anybody who is still short up against the all-time high, squeeze, like squeeze 100% parabolic blowoff top. Get the volume up and over like 300% of the 20-day average. That might mark a top.

[00:48:11]But for now, you're just kind of getting these higher lows in here. Uh, you know, as long as you're consolidating over 43265, I would kind of look for that in the upward direction. And the short is just underneath these lows, possibly targeting the top of the gap. And the best short is just looking for the gap close, right? So very well- definfined levels to trade against here in AMD.

[00:48:28]It's been a really awesome uh chart to see develop over the last couple of weeks. MU, excuse me. Speaking of charts that are just uh bonkers. This thing's nuts. Um yes, volume starting to get a little bit frothy down here. Yes, we are getting a little bit parabolic in terms of the shape of the chart. Yes, we are 14 ATRs from the 50 SMA. Uh but honestly, you know, if I'm completely transparent here, I think this thing has the potential to squeeze tomorrow. Uh we'll see what it does in the pre-market. But if you were short on Tuesday, you had the right idea and you got smashed into the after um into the afternoon. This morning's open, totally put the pressure on. Unless you're cool as a cucumber with a stop over the all-time high regular hours, you know, you you're feeling the pressure there as as a short trying to look for this thing to go and just, you know, turn backside and hit the 20. So, if this can consolidate here and break up and over the highs, you know, if you're over an intraday VWAP, sure, by all means. I think that this is a potential move to squeeze off and once again produce some parabolic blowoff top style volume. Uh, that would just look completely out of this world. Once again, look at for like 300% of the 20-day average or something like that. The memory names are just on fire. They can't be stopped. Uh, SanDisk a little bit weaker. Um, but even this, right, still stacking potentially daily higher lows here. A little weaker on the SanDisk. WDC. Oops. Go here. Not that these are the additional trade ideas, but WDC really strong. Same look with those two hammers and STX of course fitting the same group as well up here on those highs. Looking good for the same potential squeeze out through the three equal. All right, that's the uh followthrough from the MU. But now I've got additional trade ideas for you. The first one's TSM Taiwan Semiconductor. As you can see here, I don't have the level actually struck, but if you use your left side peak, nice higher low hold there at the 20 SMA today. roughly around, let's call that 393. And for now, I would just look for this as a higher low over the 2-day equal high.

[00:50:19]Probably starts to navigate up towards the all-time high. Let's grab this and let's just go ahead and throw the number on. Yeah, absolutely. Look at the confluence here around roughly that 405, we'll call it for round numbers sake.

[00:50:30]We're trading stocks these days, uh, you know, it's like crazy to think that MU is at $800. We all remember, you know, just a short while ago when MU was like, "Oh, yeah, we could trade that for a couple hundred bucks uh back last summer and the options weren't berserk." Now it's like, okay, you're paying 20 bucks for an options contract on MU as it trades near these highs. Anyways, point being back to TSM. This is also suffering a similar fate. Uh, it's up here at 400 and I think that you have over 405 longs towards the all-time high. Daily higher low holding the 20 failing to close twice underneath after a quick shake. It was the best time to buy on a VWAP reclaim after the 20 SMA shake probably. But I do think that you could get followthrough towards the highs as long as the SMH is hot into the end of the week. Next up, uh let's go on over to some crypto stuff before migrating back to uh other more maybe relevant themes. Coin coin, we got through earnings, did all right over here, and I think that this is a nice higher low off the 20 SMA. Hammer candle already starting to step up. So, if this thing can brigade bolt up and out of the range, really looking for the 200 SMA, probably could have been buyable today with a stop against today's low or even underneath the 50 SMA. Looking for that move, uh you know, obviously in the same group. Uh this is where part of the six ideas come from. Circle is in the same group. Circle looks good here. Stacking your daily higher lows. Great move on earnings. Perfect support off the moving average cluster. Look below and fail on previous days low. Closing back strong inside that range. Consolidation and continuation. Kind of the name of the game out of a name like circle and figure. Honestly, I haven't talked about this one in a while, but nice curl off the moving average stack. This is a stable coin play, so to speak, or at least, you know, crypto as it relates to they they're in the mortgage settlement business, right? So up and over these highs, you've got thin structure all day long. It's also an IPO opening print reclaim and the highest volume ever reclaim on the open, right? Technically, uh, no, it's the green day. My apologies. It is the close, highest volume close ever. E, uh, up and over 3975. So probably buyable just through these highs looking for the thin structure retracement with a stop under the 50. If you want to set it up like risk and reward towards these highs, you obviously have about a 2 and 1 half to one. If you could be more precise with your entry and put like stop low of day and you're risking like this to try to navigate back up there. I mean that's really when you can get those precise entries like that, that is where the swing trading really makes the most sense. So figure definitely on the radar here. It's going over to Oracle. Oracle is up next on the docket. Nice inside hammer today. Probably buyable up and over about this 192 193 area. There we go. 193 through the container bar high targeting the 200 SMA ultimately. So, you know, could we get riskreward tomorrow based on what the setup looks like first flag over the range? Sure.

[00:53:02]Something like that is doable. If it is going to pull back and shake the 20 SMA, probably want to buy it on a reclaim of VWAP intraday after supporting uh over that uh level. So, watching for that on Oracle and then Wolf Wulf, if we could type is next up on the docket. And I'm sure you could see already what I'm about to say here. Nice higher low over the 20. Great break, nice hold on earnings. And uh of course looking to see if we can't get a little bit of action here over today's high tomorrow. Getting movement into this high at roughly 2580 will do for round numbers sake up there as the first target. And of course this break is going to be up and over the round figure at 2360. Something that looks like this getting going for that move. That's what I've got for you in today's episode and installation of the midweek market update. Thanks to everybody who came out to the pre-market show uh where we were speaking a little bit more quietly than normal trying to respect the neighbors from the mobile command station. So, with that being said, if you enjoyed the video or learned anything new, let me know down below in the comment section.

[00:54:00]As always, give the video a simple thumbs up as well. And we'll be back at it tomorrow morning at 8 a.m. Eastern time for another episode and installation of the pre-market prep, right, where we'll build the game plan as we do every day for the broad market indices, mostly focused on the futures, ESNQ, a little bit of Russell, and we will hit the core list of companies as well as anything relevant happening in the pre-market. With that being said, have yourself a green rest of the trading week, and I will see you in the next one.