Why EVERYONE is LEAVING Austin Texas

追加: 2026-06-01

[00:00:00]When I heard people were leaving Austin Texas, I didn't believe it.

[00:00:04]Honestly, I was skeptical about this whole idea. That is until I saw this graph. This graph charts the population growth year over year for the city of Austin ever since 2010. It clearly shows that Austin's population growth went from 3% down to 2%, 1%, and now we're hovering around 0.5%. This is all just over a 15-year time period. This is a dramatic turn of events. So, what's going on? Why is everyone leaving Austin Texas?

[00:00:31]I'm Adam in Austin, a local real estate agent based here in Austin, [music] Texas.

[00:00:36]Let's figure out what's going on with Austin's population.

[00:00:40]Okay, let's start with the obvious question. Is this even real? The short answer is yes, but it's nuanced. Now, let me make this clear in case there's any confusion. Austin is still growing, but that growth is slowing down significantly. Here's another way to view it. Check out this amazing chart by Axios. This gives us a clear look at migration inflows and outflows to Austin over the course of 2025. Basically, it breaks down where people who are moving to Austin, Texas are coming from, and also for the people who are leaving Austin, Texas, where they're going to.

[00:01:09]Now, this report describes the balance of what's happening here in Austin as an unusual equilibrium. That means there's nearly equal numbers coming into the city and going out of the city. It also suggests that a significant outflow from the city are going to neighboring areas that are orbiting Austin. Areas like Kyle, Buda, New Braunfels. The people headed in this direction are seeking more affordable housing. So, overall, what this tells us is Austin's migration is balancing out, and additionally, growth is shifting away from the city into the suburbs. And for the first time in years, interest in Austin has dropped, and that's a massive shift.

[00:01:41]Now, just to be clear, Austin isn't dying, it's transitioning. It's going from explosive growth to stabilization.

[00:01:47]So, the real question isn't are people leaving? It's why are they leaving?

[00:01:51]Let's start with the biggest one, cost of living.

[00:01:54]>> [music] >> This is a foundational reason why people are Austin used to be known as California style without California prices, but in many parts of Austin this dynamic is getting harder and harder to achieve. Let's revisit this chart from the beginning of the video. You can see in this chart the population growth reached its lowest point in 2020 and it struggled to get back over 1% ever since that point. Why? What happened to Austin just after 2020? I think that can be best answered with this chart. This shows home values in Austin ever since 2010. Basically, just after 2020, that's when home prices in Austin really began to skyrocket. I mean between 2019 and 2023 alone, home prices surged over 40%.

[00:02:33]Meanwhile, national income hasn't kept up. Check out this chart showing national average income for the United States along with the average median sale price of homes in the United States. You can see it here too, just after 2010 home prices began to surge, but our income, it didn't keep up.

[00:02:48]Simply put, affordable housing in Austin is becoming harder to find. And what happens when a city gets expensive?

[00:02:54]People move. So, who's leaving? Not the ultra-wealthy, not the high-end tech execs. Austin was actually ranked as the fastest growing city for millionaires in 2024. The people that are moving are middle-income families, long-time locals and first-time home buyers. But honestly, cost alone isn't what makes people leave, it just makes people start thinking about it. The next factor that really pushes people over the edge is traffic, it's infrastructure.

[00:03:19]>> It is 9:30 on a Saturday morning. WHY IS THERE TRAFFIC?

[00:03:25]THE WHOLE MCDONALD'S IS CLOSED.

[00:03:27]>> SO, LET'S talk about it. I mean, Austin has a growth problem and that's not because it grew, it's because it grew faster than its infrastructure. In fact, most of its high-rises are sitting empty. As of January 2025, office vacancy in the central business district of Austin is estimated to be around 22.3%.

[00:03:44]That's the highest level since tracking data began in 2000. Additionally, you've got limited highways for getting around.

[00:03:51]This makes folks rely heavily on roads like I-35, but I-35 is under construction for the next 10 years. For some folks, relying on I-35 means daily frustration. So, the issue is if you don't come into the city with the right understanding of its dynamics, you might be let down. Most people are expecting a smaller city vibe and an easier lifestyle, and that's definitely possible here in Austin. You just have to be strategic about where you move.

[00:04:13]Now, with all that being said, it's just super important to consider if you are moving to Austin, Texas, you really want to get in touch with good strategic information that informs your move. So, if you're looking to make the move, I highly recommend you reach out to me. My contact info is below and in the description. I'm an agent here in Austin, Texas, and I help folks move here all the time, and I can help you, too. Reaching out to me would be cool, but you know what's not cool? Austin summers.

[00:04:37]>> [music] >> Let's talk about the thing nobody fully understands until they move here, the heat. Now, Austin summers aren't just hot, they can be long and relentless.

[00:04:46]The summer of 2023 brought 69 days over 100°. It ended up being the second hottest summer on record. The summer of 2022 brought 67 days over 100°, and was the third hottest ever recorded. Now, it's not always this hot, but sometimes the city will go through weeks and weeks of triple digit temperatures. Now, if you're not strategic about this, it can be easy to just default to staying inside and basically hibernating all summer long. This happens. People move here for the lifestyle, but three to four months out of the year, that can dramatically change. Now, if you start to combine the high cost of living, the traffic, the heat, this can suddenly make people ask the question, is it worth it?

[00:05:26]>> [music] >> Now, here's another interesting factor.

[00:05:29]Because Austin's boom was really built on tech, but the tech scene here in Austin, it's changing.

[00:05:34]>> Austin's tech industry is apparently cooling off. A new report finds the city is losing startup talent for a number of reasons, including housing costs.

[00:05:44]>> In general, the Austin tech market, it's cooling off. Tech layoffs have impacted the city. Startup and big tech employment has declined in some areas.

[00:05:52]Some companies in town, they're just shifting back to the coastal cities they came from. Now, you couple that with the office vacancy rates, and it really does feel like a dramatic shift from the boom years of Austin. Basically, Austin is no longer the obvious tech destination.

[00:06:06]It's now just one of many options. But, here's the twist, tech isn't disappearing, it's just evolving. And this leads us to a discussion about growth and fatigue.

[00:06:17]Now, this one's harder to quantify, but it's real. Austin has changed fast. Some of our culture has shifted, the cost of living has exploded, and to many locals who've been here a long time, it feels different.

[00:06:29]>> This guy is like, I'm tired of these cones.

[00:06:33]He got out of his car.

[00:06:36]Did you move the cones?

[00:06:38]>> Some locals say Austin's losing its vibe. Locals are getting priced out and replaced by newcomers. The Keep Austin Weird culture is becoming harder and harder to find. And when people feel that way, they don't just complain, they leave. So, all that being said, where are people going?

[00:06:54]Now, here's the interesting part. Most people, they aren't leaving Texas.

[00:06:57]They're just leaving Austin proper.

[00:06:59]They're going to the suburbs. And this brings up something interesting that I don't think people understand. Austin has many, many affordable suburbs all within a 20 to 40-minute drive of downtown. Check out the map. These areas are still very connected to Austin, but they're technically separate cities, even though they're right up against Austin. Areas like Leander, Cedar Park, Round Rock, Georgetown, Pflugerville, Manor, Bastrop, Kyle, Buda, San Marcos, even Dripping Springs. These suburbs are growing fast, and many of them are growing faster than Austin. Check out this chart based on census data. It shows the growth and changes in population between July 2023 and July 2024. Areas like Leander, Round Rock, Georgetown, they all grew their population in greater numbers than Austin. And if you look at the percentage change, almost all these suburbs are growing at a faster rate.

[00:07:47]Rents and home prices in areas like Georgetown, Leander, and Kyle offer a 20 to 45% discount on a per square foot basis compared to Austin. So, if people are leaving Austin, but staying nearby, what does that tell you?

[00:08:02]So, here's the truth. Yes, people are leaving Austin, but not because the city is falling apart. They're leaving because it got more expensive, it got more crowded, and it's no longer the hidden gem it used to be. And honestly, that's what happens when any city becomes this popular. Austin didn't decline, it leveled up. It went from an underrated city to a major US destination. And with that, comes growing pains. All that being said, why are people still moving here? Because people are still moving to Austin.

[00:08:28]Austin still offers many things that are pretty rare. First of all, job opportunities here are still pretty strong. Even with the tech market shifting, Austin is still one of the top job markets in the country. You've still got major players like Tesla and Apple and Samsung, and more coming. People move here because the lifestyle is still elite, even with the heat, even with the growth, Austin delivers a lifestyle that is really, really hard to beat. It's got an incredible live music scene, the outdoor access to the green belt, to the lakes, to parks and trails, it's abundant and it's phenomenal. The food scene keeps getting better. And the laid-back friendly culture here compared to other major cities, it just can't be beat. And with all that being said, you can still find value here if you know where to look. Now, yes, Austin did get expensive, but compared to places like San Francisco, Los Angeles, New York City, you can still get more space, newer homes, and lower taxes if you just look in the right places. There's still very real opportunity here in Austin.

[00:09:21]So, here's what this all comes down to.

[00:09:23]If If you're looking for the cheapest city, or zero traffic, or no growth or change, then Austin probably isn't for you. But, if you're looking for job opportunities, a fantastic lifestyle that's still pretty affordable relative to other major cities, long-term city growth, a city [snorts] that's still on the rise, then Austin is still one of the best options in the entire country.

[00:09:43]So, if you're out there and you're looking to move to Austin, Texas, I can definitely help. If you want another way to figure out where you should be living in the city, then you should definitely just watch my video that's popping up right now. In this video, I break down the whole map from central to east to west to north to south. I explain all these areas and what it's like to live in them. This will definitely give you a better idea of what neighborhoods might be the best fit for you. Check it out.