MY UPDATED BITCOIN ROADMAP

本站添加: 2026-05-20

[00:00:13]Yo, what is going on everybody? Welcome back to another Kev Capital video where we spend some time pulling back the curtain on some of the most important charts in the market and what it means for you. Before we jump into the video today, if you enjoy the content, please like, subscribe, and leave a comment below. And also do not forget to check the links in the description below where you can visit patreon.com/kevcap and invest, trade, and analyze the markets with me on a daily basis. We are now running a multi-tier subscription system which provides premium access to the Patreon for an affordable rate for everyone. And with that being said, let's jump right into it. Today, I want to provide an update to my Bitcoin road map. I want to talk about where we've come from, the calls that I've made, whether those have played out or not, and where I think we're going. I want to talk about the overall thesis. I want to talk about what would invalidate the thesis, and I want to talk about what would just play out the normal thesis that I've had this entire time. And and we're going to start all the way back here at the beginning. And that goes all the way back to around August and September. And we're going to try and quickly go over this because I don't want to spend too much time on what has already happened. I want to talk about what I think's going to happen next.

[00:01:19]Back in August and September, I was adamantly talking about and ringing the alarm bells on the crypto market. As much as I wanted the market to break out, and I felt that there was an opportunity for it to do so in Q4, there was a lot of bearish signs in the charts, particularly on Bitcoin. Now, if you guys remember in the summertime, ETH was doing extremely well, and we called the exact bottom on the ETH versus Bitcoin chart, literally two months ahead of time, positioned ourselves in the Patreon in ETH beta altcoins, and rode up multiple 2x plays in that late summertime period. So, that was a huge success.

[00:02:06]But in August and September, I started to notice something which no one else was really noticing because when the altcoin market is doing really well, people get blinded by that. But it was Bitcoin's inability to break the 120 to 125K zone. So I started to post a lot and I wasn't making YouTube videos at this time. So you'd have to go and look at the tweets. They're all there, Patreon posts. Obviously the people in the Patreon know. started to say, "Listen, I know it's nice that ETH is rallying and the altcoins are doing well and I'm benefiting from that, right? I'm up a ton, but Bitcoin's really struggling at this 120 to 125K zone. Not only is it struggling, but it's starting to print weekly reversal candles, right?

[00:02:47]These inversed hammer candles. And then it went on to print that monthly inverse hammer candle. And I'm not going to go to that time frame. I just want to keep talking. From there, I started to really ring the alarm bells and say, "Listen, ETH is at its previous all-time high.

[00:03:02]Total 2 is at its previous all-time high. We have not broken out yet, and Bitcoin is still struggling while USDT dominance is in this 3.9 to 3.70% support range. We need to be cautious on the market, not celebrate here like everyone else is doing, and just sit back and wait and see what happens." I didn't know whether we would break out or not. I wasn't 100% sure. But as a portfolio manager, this is where the analysis separates itself from portfolio management. For example, in the Patreon on those plays that I was up a lot on, and many others were too. I stated I'm going to take some profits here on these plays. 25 to 30% of the trades out of the market as a takerit and then I'm going to put my stop losses also in profit so that I have risk-free long exposure to the market because I know what I'm seeing in the charts. I know how this looks, but I'm still holding out hope that we're going to do this Q4 end of bull cycle rally. So the charts were saying ah it doesn't look like it's going to happen. But in terms of just what has occurred in the past, you're holding on to that hope that we're at this previous all-time high. You know, volume is very low. Maybe we can make it happen here. ETH can break out. We're going to get the altcoin season full-blown. It's going to be beautiful.

[00:04:25]That was excellent risk management in the face of uncertainty around the charts.

[00:04:32]Once Bitcoin started to print those weekly reversal candles in that monthly reversal candle, it became very obvious because monthly momentum strength and money flow indicators were starting to slightly roll over. We had weekly bearish divergence. You guys all remember if you follow me every day I kept posting the same chart. We have weekly bearish divergence on Bitcoin that has been stretching all the way back from March of 2024 until the highs in December and then the highs in in um Q2 or Q3 of 2025. Lower highs in strength and momentum indicators while price is making higher highs. That was the big red flag. That's why the risk management went the way that it went in terms of the portfolio. Bitcoin ended up breaking down from there, right? We had the October 10th crash. No one predicted that. I didn't predict that. I've been in the crypto market for two and a half cycles going on three and a half cycles.

[00:05:29]I have seen the COVID crash, the May of 2021 crash, the June of 2022 crash. I've seen it all. I have never seen a more aggressive, faster, more insane level crash of all time. I actually had a feeling in my heart there for a second like wow I these altcoins actually might go to zero or you know close to it and you know we're talking 60 to 75 to 80% drops in a 30 minute span so this is where that risk management came into play even the stop losses that I had in profit almost didn't get hit in profit that's how insanely fast the dump was the orders could not even be filled luckily from a riskmanagement perspective No losses were taken on October 10th in the Patreon portfolio.

[00:06:19]That is a level of fortunate being extremely fortunate, but also proper risk management. And I'm grateful to this day that the market allowed for me to be in a situation to have that risk management so that it could play out because I could have easily been on the other side of it like many others. Once that breakdown occurred, I started to say to myself, okay, well, it's clear here that a lot of the altcoins, even though they rebounded, have these monster wicks to the downside. You know how it goes. Those wicks typically fill. But in terms of Bitcoin, it became a situation where, all right, what are the bare market indicators? I'm going to show you the 2-day 200 EMA and SMA started to become a conversation.

[00:07:04]As you know, if you follow me, and I'm going to breeze through this as quick as I can. The 2-day, 200 EMA, and SMA are the bull market support bands. That's the real bull market support band.

[00:07:14]Nobody uses it. They use the 50we or the 21week EMA and 20we SMA. And those have a ton of value. But in my opinion, the 2-day 200 EMA and SMA not only provide the most flexibility, but they are the true bull market support band. back in 2021 and early 2022 when Bitcoin broke down from the 2-day 200 EMA and SMA, then had its counter trend rally back into it, failed to get back above, that was the beginning stages of the more aggressive stages of the bare market.

[00:07:46]So, you initially have your corrective phase out of the all-time high. You then have a counter trend rally to see if you can make a new high and continue the bull market. But once you break the 2-day 200 EMA and SMA, that all but seals your fate. Come back and retest it. You fail to get back above it. More aggressive stages of the bare market.

[00:08:04]That skips us to here. We held the 2-day 200 EMAN SMA on every major corrective phase back in the last bull cycle. Once that was broken, as you can see here, and I'll zoom in and I also called this out.

[00:08:21]Bitcoin was going to have it had this corrective phase. I said it's going to have a counter trend rally very very soon, right? It ended up having that counter trend rally. Right in between that 70 to 174 day span where Bitcoin typically has corrective periods. Right at the right at the end of that 174 day period, we get the counter trend rally back into the 2-day 200 EMA SMA.

[00:08:47]This was the beginning of the more aggressive stages of the bare market.

[00:08:50]You failed to get back above it. You leg lower. You make a new low. That's the bare market. That call played out perfectly. I even shorted Bitcoin from 96,000 or 97,000 all the way down to 59K. Put that signal out in the Discord that many people would be short. I even threw it out there on Twitter. I said everyone's going to be shorting this zone like it's the April of 2022 high.

[00:09:15]And it's a good re you have all the reason to do it because this is the same retest that we did back over here in 2022. It's the same exact structure, right? No different.

[00:09:29]Then what did we state back in February?

[00:09:33]And this now we're into the road map, right? We're into the road map. There's gonna be a more durable counter trend rally in the late winter, early spring during tax season before the summer, right? Let alone Bitcoin legs lower, hits the golden pocket, comes down the 200E EMA, we have gotten that counter trend rally that has literally played out to the tea. I said we would go up to 74 to 81K.

[00:10:02]Check. We would get the counter trend rally. It would be more durable than the one in January in the late winter, early spring. Check. We would even hit a stretch target zone of 82 to 87K. Check.

[00:10:13]We would swipe all the short liquidity on the three-month and one month liquidity heat map. Check.

[00:10:19]All before the summertime. Check.

[00:10:23]Now, this is why I'm making the video because it's time to enter into the next phase of my road map. Whether that plays out or not, I don't know for sure, but I know what we can look at in terms of the technical indicators to just give us an idea as can it and what can invalidate it. That brings me down to the daily time frame. Many of you guys know and girls, what do I talk about in terms of what you need to do in order to change a downtrend, right? Because Bitcoin is obviously in a higher time frame downtrend. Specifically, the shortest time frame you can use is the daily. The two-day time frame is the best time frame. But from the shortest time frame you can use, we can use the daily. It would have worked in the previous bare market. It'll work now.

[00:11:13]As you could see, when you get these counter trend rallies, you rally back up into your major moving averages. You form these upward consolidation levels and you staircase your way down. This is very simple stuff. If you want to break that downtrend and invalidate any thesis that I have remaining for Bitcoin, you would need to, like I talk about in other videos, pierce above these major moving averages, come back up to major resistance levels. For example, 95 to 100K. Could stop before that. You know, I'm just giving you an example what it would look like. You'd have high volume, high net money flow, high whale money flow, expansionary momentum, all the following of a bare market breakout. all the ingredients. You would then come back and retest all of the moving averages that would then be curling up to the upside. Hold these major fibs and moving averages as support and then start to leg higher. That would be the first sign in the most concrete sign you can get that would tell you the bare market is over. We're doing something different. A Bitcoin's going higher.

[00:12:22]That has not been my base case. If it did happen, my base case would be invalidated. I would happily admit that and you best believe I would be positioned for it because I'm already in the process of working on that via my own portfolio management via crypto plays and software stocks which trade completely in tandem with Bitcoin via the IGV and the Bitcoin chart of which I've also showed you many times. I am a firm believer that you want to own both and you should bucket them in the same bucket.

[00:12:56]That's just the way I'm operating. I love stocks. I love crypto. I choose to operate in both worlds.

[00:13:04]Proper proper allocation sizing at this current stage of course. Right. With that being said, what is Kev Capital's base case? I'm going to show you what my base case has been the entire time.

[00:13:20]This brings us over to the 12-day chart.

[00:13:23]This has been my base case. Bitcoin goes through all the phases that I've already talked about that were predicted.

[00:13:33]So, we've done a really good job up until now.

[00:13:37]My prediction has been that Bitcoin would have this counter trend rally followed by summertime weakness. It would make a new low and its official low at some point between July and October in the summertime to early fall.

[00:13:55]Whether it makes a new low or not or a double bottom, I don't know. But what I do know is I believe that low would come in anywhere between the golden pocket at 56,000, the 12-day 200 EMA at 55,000, the 12-day 200 SMA at 48,000, maybe the 0.5 fib at 44K.

[00:14:16]Why do I believe that? In the previous cycle, Bitcoin bottomed at the 12-day 200 EMA and SMA and the 0.5 fib that currently ranges in between 56 and 44,000.

[00:14:28]12-day 200 EMA and SMA was also tapped in our major downtrend during COVID and we bottomed out at 3,800.

[00:14:37]So the last two major draw downs that Bitcoin has had, we have hit the 12-day 200 EMA and SMA. That's that's number one. Number two, the 0.5 fib was also tapped during the last bare market.

[00:14:53]That's number what? Three. number two or three.

[00:14:58]Also, if we look at the monthly time frame indicators, money flow, momentum, and strength, they are still in the process of being reset.

[00:15:09]Okay? And I want to show you those real quick if I can.

[00:15:15]For example, the monthly time frame momentum waves typically come down further than where they already have come down to. Now you are getting some curling up action because the last few months have been bullish. So maybe something different does happen. Maybe we just keep going up. Maybe money flow keeps accelerating. VWAP comes up and crosses a zero line and my thesis is invalidated. That's totally fine. I'm okay with that.

[00:15:39]But it hasn't yet. And I do believe that as we go into the summer months, Bitcoin typically does favor weakness and it will form that real bottom in the summertime in between my July and October range and then we'll form a buy signal and then the bull market will start.

[00:15:57]L MACD on the monthly time frame is still bearish. While we are printing some white bars, it's still bearish.

[00:16:04]Okay, have to take that into account. one red month. This goes back to being red, dark purple again and expansionary momentum to the downside ensues. Whale money flow while it has made a tick higher, which is nice. This happens, right? You could see this in bare markets. We had a tick higher here. We had a tick higher here.

[00:16:26]We're getting that tick higher here. A lot of the time, excuse me, you will form these accumulation style lows on the whale money flow.

[00:16:40]Okay, we're just getting that initial bounce now, right? There's always some type of double bottom on the whale money flow.

[00:16:48]We never just go straight up, right?

[00:16:51]That's what I'm looking for. Stock RSI and the monthly getting a nice cross to the upside, right? Excuse me again. I'm sorry about that.

[00:17:00]We've seen this before.

[00:17:04]We've seen it. Now, it's more durable this time. So, this is something we need to watch out for. Don't need to be biased. Maybe this is something different. Maybe we only need one cross and we go shooting up. Or maybe we come up to the to the 20 level here, get rejected, and then come back down. I don't know. But what I'm saying is is that you typically go through longer accumulation phases at the lows.

[00:17:27]on your momentum strength and money flow indicators. We haven't gotten that. It's just been V-shaped.

[00:17:33]Okay.

[00:17:35]So, as it goes for the indicators, the basic premise that I'm setting is that you typically have longer durations of time where these indicators reset at the lows. Now, are they at the lows? Almost.

[00:17:48]And some of them are, not all of them, but they typically go through a resetting process.

[00:17:55]That takes me back over to this chart again.

[00:17:58]I just want to show you what our bottom looks like here. As you can see, right, look at this bottom.

[00:18:06]Not much structure to that. We were to just head higher from here, that would be a surprise because structurally, this doesn't look like a traditional bottom to me. It just looks like a mega dump followed by a counter trend relief rally on this time frame and many other time frames. There's no real structure here.

[00:18:25]It's just lackluster moves to the upside over the last couple of months. Okay, now that's not my number one indicator, but you could just look at this and say, eh, you know, doesn't really look the best. typically, you know, there's some more accumulation, more roundingness to it, right? Not this uh just, you know, look at this, right? Nice rounding bottom. A nice rounding bottom here, right? Not just this down, boom, back to the upside, right? This little rubber band effect. Okay? It actually does look like a bare flag even on higher time frames. Now, again, can something different happen? Yes.

[00:19:09]and I will absolutely say, "Oh, well, my road map played out beautifully for a long time, but it's not playing out anymore, folks. The bull market is back." I will never hold on to a thesis if it breaks. But for now, that continues to be my thesis and I'm sticking to it because it keeps playing out. And until it breaks, until Bitcoin flips those daily moving averages, comes back and retests them, holds them, holds those key fib fib levels, and then ascends higher, then we are still in a downtrend, a higher time frame downtrend. And I'm expecting lower or a double bottom, something in the summertime that brings us back down.

[00:19:51]Okay, I don't have the ability to pull up the two-year liquidity heat map right now because I got to resubscribe to Coin Glass, but there's also that massive block of liquidity still sitting in that um I believe it's the uh somewhere between the what 54 and 44K zone is what I remember it being in. I'd have to look now. I'm sure it's still there. It hasn't been hit. So, that's something else we need to watch for. I don't have the ability to show you that right now, but you know, it's there from previous videos. So, with that being said, we've done a great job up until this point, and I'm really proud of that work. Have done a phenomenal job not only managing risk, but actually making real calls on the market for you to understand and plan ahead of time. With that being said, going forward, it will be important even, you know, especially from my my perspective because you guys are going to do your own thing that I am flexible to the idea that something different can happen here. A professional would be positioned properly no matter what. So yes, I am allocated into the crypto market right now. I am allocated into software stocks right now. I'm not allocated super heavy, but I have a pretty good amount of my portfolio and overall capital in the market in those two sectors of which trade exactly together. You know, remember something what someone else's allocation sizing via their portfolio is doesn't really matter how much capital is in the market, right? And for me and my risk tolerance, even at this moment, I have an acceptable amount of capital, some of it risk-free at this point too, which is great, but I am ready to DCA lower also. So, if we get more upside, I benefit. If we get more downside, I will benefit because then I'll just be able to buy lower. So, from a portfolio management perspective, I'm prepared for both ways. And if we break up and come back and retest, I can buy more on a retest. If we break down and go lower, I can buy lower one way or the other. I'm going to be there with you. Okay? I ain't missing out on nothing. And I'm going to take advantage of the market and what it gives me.

[00:22:08]That's how you respect the market and its ability to break your thesis or your analysis, but then also still be able to experience the gains on the upside or get the ability to DCA lower. So, with that being said, that's it. We went over where we've been. We've went over my specific road map and we went over what I believe is going to happen from here.

[00:22:31]And then I also went over what would invalidate that and how to be prepared for it via what I'm doing with my own personal portfolio currently and how I would manage it if something different happened. So, I hope this video was informative to you. I hope it was transparent as possible about my views so that you can learn from it. Not that you could just track me and dunk on me if I'm wrong about something. I hope that wouldn't be the case. This is all about learning. You know, remember, I've been through multiple cycles. I've been successful in crypto. I've ridden Bitcoin up, ETH up, and all coins up on the most parabolic runs that all of you want to see. So, I've been there and done that. But I want you to be able to experience that because I know many of you are new. And some of you haven't been able to experience that. So that's why I'm here to help you, okay? That's why I do this. So with that being said, I hope you guys enjoyed the video. If you have any questions, please like, comment, subscribe below, and once again, don't forget to check the links in the description below or you can visit patreon.com/kevcap.

[00:23:32]With that being said, hope you guys all have a nice day. Peace out.