FTS World Cup Show - Matchday 4 - 14th June 9.30am

[00:00:03]Good morning, everybody. Welcome to whatever day it is. I can't even remember. I think it's match day four. I had a few traumas here this morning with some data. So, I've been a bit all over the place. Is it match day four? I believe it is.

[00:00:14]Mark is here. Morning.

[00:00:16]>> Yeah, good morning.

[00:00:18]>> Let's start with the overnight stuff. I did get up and watch the Scotland game. And about 20 minutes in, I was cursing myself for doing so. I know it's the World Cup. Everybody's great. You get World Cup fever. The football has been absolutely [ __ ] honking that I've watched. It's been absolutely terrible. And I'll go back to when I asked Darren in the sports show about the penalty decisions in Hearts versus uh uh Hibs Hearts Celtic. He said, "Ian, I couldn't give a shit." I'm sure Scotland fans won't give a [ __ ] They won 1-0.

[00:00:56]Fantastic. But [ __ ] me, that was terrible football that game on a Jesus Christ.

[00:01:01]>> Yes, [snorts] I'm trying I'm trying to not um you know, upset our Scottish fans.

[00:01:08]But I had a quick look this morning. And if you want your World Cup bet, it's Morocco at 1.8 to beat you guys next week. I think it was about that. But fair play, I think they got the job done. They That's what they needed to do. And they will probably qualify now with be very, very unlikely that they don't qualify. So, fair play.

[00:01:29]You got your 1-0 win. But Jesus Christ, I just oh my god.

[00:01:34]>> the I think the goal summed the game up.

[00:01:36]It came up a little bit of a picture more than it goes. But yeah, I mean, Flower of Scotland at the start absolutely fantastic. The fans singing that um >> I yeah, I had it on mute that. So, I WOULDN'T WATCH.

[00:01:45]>> [laughter] >> YEAH, ANYTHING LIKE THAT, YOU NEVER Walk Alone, Flower of Scotland, anything well. Sorry to throw all home. I'm not watching any of that crap. It's It gets muted. And then I'll I'll put it on up to um um uh when the game kicks off.

[00:02:02]>> And uh >> Well, I did have a text off our our our colleague in Australia. I think the the sun's gone to her head. Now, I might be wrong here, but I believe she is English and she sent me a text saying, "Go Scotland." I think the sun's gone to her head. Pathetic.

[00:02:18]>> I mean, that when she'll be claiming with the Aussie, when she'll be claiming she's Aussie. Another one, she's going to pick about eight nationalities.

[00:02:24]That's what they do.

[00:02:25]>> Yeah. Um Uh the first game was obviously uh Switzerland-Qatar. I was strong on the over 1.5. We did get the over 1.5, not quite as we expected. I did watch that game. They were absolutely rubbish. They were useless.

[00:02:40]>> Qatar weren't no good either. They're crap. They're just uh I mean, on third place >> of that game was the Qatar goal. It was a cracking goal, great cross. Could have Really good cross.

[00:02:51]>> The keeper The keeper played very well, which in them games you do need your keepers. When you're under the cosh, yeah, you need your keeper to have a worldie. But, they kept themselves in it and they got a chance and they took it.

[00:03:01]Fair enough.

[00:03:02]>> As I was watching that, I knew something about the keeper. I thought that keeper will be playing for I'll be so Spurs.

[00:03:07]He's made a couple of good saves. Spurs will go and buy him now for the World Cup and he'll prove to be absolute garbage cuz we will [laughter] be in the market for a new keeper. So, you think like you We've done it We've done it every World Cup. But, somebody plays well for about 40 minutes. Spurs buy him and they're absolutely [ __ ] garbage.

[00:03:23]Videos of poor Videos of poor. He was He was absolutely useless. Bought him on the back of about 20 minutes decent football in the World Cup.

[00:03:31]>> Yeah. Yeah, if if somebody plays well against England or Brazil or Argentina, some Premier League team will buy them and they'll and they'll have no legs.

[00:03:39]Yeah, when they get >> That's exactly right. Uh and then uh so, yes, the Qatar with a point damaging Swiss hopes. Um and then Brazil-Morocco.

[00:03:48]Um Darren yesterday came on as substitute. He was strong on Morocco.

[00:03:52]Didn't think Brazil would beat them. I have to say that for me is the World Cup starting when you see the yellow of Brazil. Having grown up in the 70s, 80s to see the yellow kids of Brazil on the pitch.

[00:04:04]Great goal by Vinicius to be fair, but a great goal by Morocco. Really good goal.

[00:04:07]>> I love goals like that where they chip the keepers like that. Yeah, cracking goal.

[00:04:12]>> It'll be really interesting to see who wins that group now.

[00:04:17]>> Yeah, um I think they were the best two teams that we've seen so far. It wasn't a particularly good game and to be honest, even though I was I've been strong on Brazil, they were under the cosh for a lot of that of that game.

[00:04:30]Morocco [snorts] are are not a bad team whatsoever.

[00:04:35]Like we said in the previous show, they were involved in the hoo-ha in the AFCON and they got to the semis for years, but they are a good team. Um Um you can't win in a World Cup in the first game, but you can certainly damage your chances of winning of winning it.

[00:04:50]Let's put it that way.

[00:04:52]Um But so yeah, Brazil did in the end probably did quite well to get a point out of it, I would say.

[00:04:58]But yeah, I think it is up for up for grabs now, but God help us if them if them Jocks win this group. Oh my God.

[00:05:07]I'm getting I'm getting a ticket to Marz then cuz I just can't call if they win the group.

[00:05:13]>> I will be very surprised if either Haiti or Scotland get another point in the group personally playing those two teams.

[00:05:23]>> I think Morocco I think Morocco are an excellent price against Scotland on I think it's Friday they play. Yeah.

[00:05:29]>> I think Brazil I think with all these things like Sam's just said, Brazil look beatable. It's one game. I think you got One of the things I think with Brazil as favorite is the coach. I think Ancelotti is you know, I think in international football having a decent coach is and I just think they'll get better. I've got no >> Yeah, and there are a few players missing for them as well, aren't they? So, uh >> [snorts] >> Yeah, I I I can't I'd be amazed if they didn't get through the group. In fact, it it won't happen.

[00:05:59]>> Yeah.

[00:05:59]>> It won't happen.

[00:06:00]>> No, they'll be right there at the end.

[00:06:02]I'm absolutely confident.

[00:06:03]>> Yeah.

[00:06:03]>> And then, um the dashboard The dashboard was obviously strong on both teams to score Qatar Switzerland. And and this is my sort of I mean, you should just I should just trust the numbers. I mean, where I'm pleased is I built the model. I decided what elements to put in the model. That was purely my decisions.

[00:06:21]Uh and then you see Qatar both teams to score great value.

[00:06:25]Uh and your kind of head takes over and go, "It's Qatar. They're absolutely shite."

[00:06:30]>> Um >> I didn't think Switzerland would be as bad as they were, but on the numbers, we had two green squares so far. One was that Qatar both teams to score. And then, Australia, the final game of the night. I know there was a little bit of sort of um contra opinion in the Telegram room. People up don't see the love of for Australia. Um this, that, and the other. Um and Australia went and got the job done 2-0 against Turkey. I two I watched it. Two cracking goals.

[00:06:56]Two really good finishes. The first finish is excellent. Um and uh >> I put I put it up in the um in the newsletter as well. I thought, you know, you can lay Turkey. Turkey are in no great shakes whatsoever.

[00:07:08]Australia, they are um I think they're they're quite solid.

[00:07:15]They they play to their strengths. The lad from Sheffield United at center half had an absolute storming game. Um the captain. Um he he really did play well.

[00:07:27]Um um this morning. Um yeah, and fair play to them. Like you said, two cracking goals. Two shots like this. You know, you can This is the They will be going through now. Like you said, you you only need to win one one one game and you're through. If that's >> Yeah, I mean, they're going to be >> The one thing with Aussie sport is you know, whatever sport it is, cricket, rugby, football, whatever, they are always going to put a shift in. They are going to give you their absolute best value.

[00:07:51]>> They compete. Yeah, they will compete.

[00:07:53]Yeah.

[00:07:54]Um I was golf club. He um he's a bookmaker and one of his larger customers had just shy of 10 grand on Switzerland last night at 1 to 4. I said he wants his head testing this guy, whoever it whoever it is.

[00:08:11]I can find better 1 to 4 shots than backing Switzerland.

[00:08:16]>> That is um yeah, I mean that is people thinking they can just buy money and I think we'll just have a much better overview after we've seen everybody play a game. One of the things I'm recording, which when we complete the first uh everybody's played the game, um is whether the odds moved or not and we'll have a look and see how that's ties in with results. So, uh whether the over 2.5 moved in, whether the home team's got backed in. So, I've got a sheet doing that and I'll bring that up when we've got everybody playing um to use towards the second round of matches.

[00:08:49]Uh let me bring the dashboard in cuz obviously we have changed a few things with last night's results and a couple of nice pictures for the um certain people.

[00:09:02]Let me just pop me a marker out again.

[00:09:05]Uh so, if we go to the groups, we can see it there. They are topping the group. They've gone up now to a 12.8% chance of winning the group, Brazil even money.

[00:09:15]Um high high team >> They'll be asking for another bank holiday, won't they?

[00:09:23]>> Uh and United States now up to 74% to win their group um and Australia 40%. When we look at the value on that, we can see uh still great value on the United States and Australia. So United States have moved to the top um And the teams, I think United States are the first team if I can find them 100% to get through to the round of 32.

[00:09:54]So and with the results tonight, Mexico 99.8, but United States obviously a very good um performance. Scotland 75% chance now of going through uh and 21.3% chance of getting into the round of uh 16 compared by um the model. So uh Good news for the Scottish guys.

[00:10:17]So let's move on to today's games. We open up with the um shortest-priced team in World Cup history.

[00:10:29]Um I do believe that's the first game up. Let's get the fixtures up.

[00:10:34]Um here we go. Germany versus Curaçao.

[00:10:38]Uh 1.06, I think they're now 1.05.

[00:10:41]Um as a result, over 1.5 is 1.07.

[00:10:45]Over 2.5 is 1.19. Uh both teams to score has got great value.

[00:10:51]I'm going to say exactly the same as I said. Look, come on the roof. She's up here. Look. Look. Here you go.

[00:10:57]This is what I mean. More teams than she She's got more More clubs than I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I Yeah, and you're and you're going They're both the same. Both moved to Australia. Just let's just support anybody. Let's Let's get up in the morning and pick a team to support.

[00:11:11]Absolutely pathetic. Um He'll have been supporting Scotland cuz McGinn scored cuz he's a Villa fan as well. So uh Yeah, I I I >> I I don't buy that either. I do not buy that scenario. Oh, he plays for Villa or he plays for my hometown club. You should support one team, one club team, one country, and that's it.

[00:11:33]>> Yeah, I'm with you. I'm with you something absolutely.

[00:11:36]Um Both teams to score yes is showing as a nice bit of green.

[00:11:42]Um it's whether you think that Curacao could get a goal uh past Germany. Germany have won their last 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 9 fixtures.

[00:11:54]Um to be fair there's a couple of Luxembourgs in there, couple of Northern Irelands.

[00:11:59]Beat Switzerland, beat Ghana, beat beat Finland, Jordan.

[00:12:03]Um and beat the United States in friendlies. Um Curacao have uh well they beat Aruba 4-0. I don't know whether the footballing giants of Aruba are any um any good. Uh they did get a goal against Australia in losing 1-5 and they did get a goal against Trinidad and Tobago and two against Bermuda.

[00:12:24]>> The thing is with that Ian is the both teams to score Yeah, we could say Curacao uh you know, they're absolute dog. But if Germany potentially are 4-5 up and they switch off and they make several subs, there's a chance that they could score. You know, it's I'm I don't think it it it will be 1-1 like Switzerland was last night with a a late equalizer, but you know, every team no matter the let you know, professional football every team does get a chance at some point. They'll have one shot on goal or something like that I'd imagine. Or somebody will go through or something like that, but yeah, it's you know, it's what price what have we got the four odds at? 2.84 >> 3.84 and you can back it at 3.1.

[00:13:09]>> Yeah.

[00:13:09]>> So, I couldn't put anybody off following the green squares. As I said with the Qatar game, I made a call on that. I couldn't put anybody off following the green squares. That is all I've got. Um I guess it's just how many they win by, isn't it? Do they get I've already seen in in some of the scoreline predictions that FDAs are putting up on 8-0.

[00:13:29]Um Like you say, it's whether they get three or four up and just conserve energy, save themselves for later on.

[00:13:36]>> Yeah, you know, if if they get 3-0 up in the first half, they're not going to go out out of unless we're we're playing against, you know, a team of under sixes, they're not going to go out and get another three in the second half at the same tempo. When they you know, it's a uh biggest World Cup ever, they've got more games to play, so yeah, I I won't I can't see it not being a comfortable win for for Germany. Um if they score early, it would be make it much better if uh they were to if they were to concede early, wouldn't it? And you know, they they keep them out for 30, 40 minutes, that would be great, man.

[00:14:08]>> Yeah.

[00:14:09]Uh look at this, this is what we're having to deal with. I mean, I'm going to have to find the block button in a minute cuz it's I just can't have it. I mean, we're trying to run a proper show here with what we're doing.

[00:14:18]Um >> Remember Remember that time she went to um Vancouver and she had um EastEnders on on a VPS? Do you remember that?

[00:14:25]>> EastEnders on the Yeah, yeah. Can you can you sort my box out, manage my bets, log into the VPS to watch an EastEnders?

[00:14:32]I mean, flipping deary me.

[00:14:34]>> [laughter] >> Um Next up is Netherlands versus Japan. Uh Netherlands are the even money or just over even money favorites for this game.

[00:14:45]Um Japan a little bit of value. Um blue.

[00:14:49]Um sort of game where you could perhaps lay Netherlands and and get out. I think this will be a bit closer than uh those prices suggest. Um >> I think I think I I think that to make it well, I I've put up Netherlands. I think uh the Netherlands will win this game. Um Japan are a good team, you know, they they did very, very well in 2022. And they're not no pushovers.

[00:15:13]It'll be a close game, but I do I I personally think the Netherlands will will um edge this one.

[00:15:18]>> [snorts] >> They um Yeah, Japan beating um England, of course, earlier in the year, didn't they? Beat England 1-0.

[00:15:24]>> Yeah.

[00:15:25]>> They They have won They beat Brazil 3-2 in October. They beat Ghana. They beat Scotland. So, the last four they've won 2-0. I don't think they'll be any pushovers at all.

[00:15:35]>> Yeah.

[00:15:36]>> It's not a It's not a game I've got a strong bet on, but if you did want to go with that, I'd probably would be rather than backing Japan, I'd probably be laying Netherlands and trading on a bit of time decay or if Japan took the lead.

[00:15:47]>> Yeah.

[00:15:49]>> Uh Next is um I I can't wait till we get to the last one. The next is um Ivory Coast versus Ecuador.

[00:15:57]>> [laughter] >> Uh I think Ecuador are going to be a bit of a surprise this tournament, personally.

[00:16:04]Um they are favorites. There's no real value in the price. No real value in any of the markets. I mean, it is a bit of a sort of almost no bet day today. Um >> Yeah, but I think um I think we've got va- value on the draw there isn't there?

[00:16:17]I think >> [clears throat] >> I looked at it and I thought this this could definitely be a draw.

[00:16:22]No, I think this could be quite um an aggressive game. I think there could be a lot of fouls and um um interesting play between between two tea- two very very aggressive teams, yeah. Very cagey, I think.

[00:16:37]>> I mean, the XG is absolutely horrific and the nil-nil is um the top score line distribution with 30%. So, I do think it'll be a bit of a defensive >> I don't know if I don't know if Z is going for cards in this, but if I'll if I'll picking anything with value, I think cards might be very very interesting in this in this game. I think neither of them want to lose because I think, you know, that they're going to think, "Well, we're going to go I'd imagine us to go through. They don't want to be fighting it out for that third place. They want to go in through in second." So, yeah, I think a draw might be uh >> I mean, under over 2.5 is 3.1.

[00:17:13]Obviously, under 2.5 is going to be very short as well. So, there's not even worth any value going that way. Um but yeah, I think it I'm going to I'm going to take it the Ecuador just to nick it.

[00:17:25]Um and then we move on to um Sweden-Tunisia. Now, obviously, we discussed Sweden in the preview show. I can't see anything other than a sort of 3-4-0 Sweden here to put all your um pre-pre-tournament stuff in the bin.

[00:17:40]>> Well, I've really I've really I've really gone out on a limb here, haven't I?

[00:17:44]Um you know, I don't I just don't think Sweden are very, very good at all. I think um if they do if they did win, which I don't think they will, I think they'd win 1-0. Um like I said, they've got the ironing board up front, haven't they?

[00:17:58]From our >> Well, when I when I relayed our preview um discussion to uh my um my mate up here who's an Arsenal fan, I said, "I'm not really strong on uh Sweden under 5.5 goals." I said, "You can get it on a bet365, blah blah blah."

[00:18:17]He went uh the Arsenal fan, "They got Carl Coker as up front. What are you on about? They got Carl Coker as up front."

[00:18:24]It's what they do, isn't it? It's what they do.

[00:18:26]>> He spent too long in betting shops and boozers. That's his problem. He's >> [laughter] >> He's drinking people.

[00:18:31]That's his problem. Yeah.

[00:18:33]>> Yeah, so here we go. And and with that, on cue, before I'd got that phrase out, look, there you go.

[00:18:38]>> Oh, he is, yes. Yeah, here he is. Yeah.

[00:18:43]>> They just have something wrong with them, don't they?

[00:18:45]>> He does.

[00:18:46]He definitely has that one.

[00:18:48]>> He definitely has, yeah. Um I mean, Sweden, like you say, they've been absolutely rinsed, haven't they?

[00:18:55]Um but the only thing that I would >> in a team that's not won a game to get there. It just It just blows my mind. I know that they they've played the played the system, but win a game to get there. It's just wrong. Yeah. Even Cape Verde's won a game.

[00:19:11]>> Yeah, well, that's exactly right. And Tunisia um I mean, it's just like one of few games, but again, you're looking Botswana, Uganda. They beat Haiti.

[00:19:22]Um I don't I think it's just two crap teams. We have got value on the dashboard in Tunisia to win. Um and very small value on goals. Um now, given our view that we don't think that Sweden are capable of scoring many.

[00:19:38]Um I'm just going to I I I it's a sit out day for me. I'm just going to sit this one out and uh we'll see what the results are tomorrow morning.

[00:19:46]>> to take my usual I'll watch the first 10 minutes and if Sweden is bad as what I think they are, I will be laying them and trading on either Tunisia goal or time decay on that. Yeah.

[00:19:59]>> Yeah, I mean, the yeah, short odds on this. Just a touch odds on more of a shade odds on this morning, Sweden.

[00:20:06]>> It's like picking up money outside. If I had any money on the street, this this >> The So, yeah, it's just one of them It's one of them days, isn't it? There's uh I mean, the Germany game is an absolute nothing. Netherlands, Japan is the highlight at 9:00 tonight. Be worth watching that, I think, see how they get on.

[00:20:28]That's just going to >> the Ivory Coast, isn't it? Yeah. You know that It could be It could be either rancid or it could actually be quite entertaining, that one.

[00:20:38]>> Yeah, I mean, the next one I think those last two will both be a bit of a war of attrition, personally. I think they'll be I don't see there being much high standard. Um And then, obviously, tomorrow we move into um again, it's not a great slate of fixtures. Spain, Belgium, Egypt might offer some interest. Um I can't Are you going to be staying up for Iran, New Zealand at 2:00 in the morning, sir?

[00:21:02]These are the ones I admire. These are the ones that getting up for that, I do admire.

[00:21:06]>> That I did fall asleep towards the end of the Scotland game, but you know, you got two bad teams, that's what's going to happen.

[00:21:13]>> [laughter] >> Iran New Zealand's going to be a toughie, but >> Yeah.

[00:21:18]>> That is going to be the tough one, that.

[00:21:20]I'm going to have a bit of a kip now.

[00:21:22]Get a couple of hours in.

[00:21:24]But yeah, that Iran New Zealand could be the could could really test my World Cup love here.

[00:21:32]>> [laughter] >> So, yeah, that's it, guys. I'm afraid it's not a massive Obviously, I did say at the start, we've kind of got running two tournaments here. This almost feels a little bit like another round of qualifying. It is all about the fact that Jocks are top of their group.

[00:21:47]They've gone pretty much guaranteed knockout football.

[00:21:52]And again, if you're using the tracker, you can go and look at the latest group prices, just convert it to odds and see what's available. If you wanted to back Scotland or if you wanted to back USA to go deeper in the tournament, you can compare that to the model odds on the dashboard and have a look. With that, we will be back tomorrow.

[00:22:11]If Sweden have scored four or five, we might not see Mark. He might >> I'll be I'll be in a job center if that happens tomorrow.

[00:22:20]>> [laughter] >> But yeah, that's I think it's the same as Netherlands.

[00:22:25]>> Who do we think Terry's supporting today?

[00:22:28]>> Oh well, yeah, you're going to You're going to carry will be They'll be German in the first match, then they'll probably switch to >> Japan.

[00:22:36]>> Yeah, Japan in the second. They'll probably flip a coin between and they'll probably play a little game of I don't know.

[00:22:43]>> [snorts] >> One of them will have Ivory Coast and one of them will have Ecuador.

[00:22:46]>> Yeah, or rock, paper, scissors to see who they support. And I imagine because we've gone against Sweden, they will probably back Sweden. Um >> Yeah.

[00:22:55]>> Oh, anyway, now you're going to come on anyone but Sweden. All right, so he's he's on Tunisia already. We know he's on Tunisia, so >> Terry's probably got a Tunisia shirt cuz she went there on holiday once and got a knock-off one or something like that.

[00:23:07]>> Yeah. They You're going to I think you should follow your Scandinavian team, son. Just next door and you'd be [laughter] flipping following the Swedish.

[00:23:15]What's the [snorts] matter with you?

[00:23:17]Um Right. That's it. We will be back tomorrow morning to do this all again.

[00:23:22]As I say, the the slate of games not fantastic. It'll get better as we go on.

[00:23:27]We will see you all tomorrow.

[00:23:28]>> Have a good day, everyone.